Assessments of species’ vulnerability to climate change: from pseudo to science

Climate change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) are important tools to plan for and mitigate potential impacts of climate change. However, CCVAs often lack scientific rigor, which can ultimately lead to poor conservation prioritization and associated ecological and economic costs. We discuss the need to improve comparability and consistency of CCVAs and either validate their findings or improve assessment of CCVA uncertainty and sensitivity to methodological assumptions.     

Kuku—Yalanji Rainforest Aboriginal People and Carbohydrate Resource Management in the Wet Tropics of Queensland, Australia

Carbohydrate food sources have emerged as a critical factor limiting occupation of rainforests by hunter—gatherer peoples globally. In the wet tropics bioregion of northeastern Australia, Kuku–Yalanji aboriginal people occupied the rainforests through a hunter–gatherer subsistence economy prior to European occupation. Collaborative environmental research between a researcher at the James Cook University and Kuku–Yalanji people has established that their fire management protected carbohydrate resources in the fire-sensitive rainforests and their margins, and ensured ongoing access to the critical dry season carbohydrate resource, Cycas media, growing in patches of fire-prone open forest on each clan estate. Carbohydrate resources in the wet season were obtained predominantly from seeds of rainforest tree nuts, a high proportion of which are wet tropics endemic species. Several of the genera utilized by aboriginal people in the wet tropics bioregion also occur in the rainforests of eastern Cape York Peninsula, where they were not utilized as foods. It is hypothesized that use of rainforest seeds for carbohydrate is a cultural adaptation that occurred in the wet tropics bioregion, stimulated by the unique availability of the substantial number of large-seeded rainforest trees that are wet tropics endemics. The implications of these data for concepts about the impact of aboriginal fires on Australian rainforests are considered. Aboriginal fires imposed a fine patterning on the vegetation at the local scale, with little effect on the vegetation at the regional scale, which is determined by environmental factors.     

‘Tales of Symphonia’: extinction dynamics in response to past climate change in Madagascan rainforests

Madagascar''s rainforests are among the most biodiverse in the world. Understanding the population dynamics of important species within these forests in response to past climatic variability provides valuable insight into current and future species composition. Here, we use a population-level approach to analyse palaeoecological records over the last 5300 years to understand how populations of Symphonia cf. verrucosa became locally extinct in some rainforest fragments along the southeast coast of Madagascar in response to rapid climate change, yet persisted in others. Our results indicate that regional (climate) variability contributed to synchronous decline of S. cf. verrucosa populations in these forests. Superimposed on regional fluctuations were local processes that could have contributed or mitigated extinction. Specifically, in the forest with low soil nutrients, population model predictions indicated that there was coexistence between S. cf. verrucosa and Erica spp., but in the nutrient-rich forest, interspecific effects between Symphonia and Erica spp. may have pushed Symphonia to extinction at the peak of climatic change. We also demonstrate that Symphonia is a good indicator of a threshold event, exhibiting erratic fluctuations prior to and long after the critical climatic point has passed.     

Heat tolerance variation reveals vulnerability of tropical herbivore–parasitoid interactions to climate change

Assessing the heat tolerance (CTmax) of organisms is central to understand the impact of climate change on biodiversity. While both environment and evolutionary history affect CTmax, it remains unclear how these factors and their interplay influence ecological interactions, communities and ecosystems under climate change. We collected and reared caterpillars and parasitoids from canopy and ground layers in different seasons in a tropical rainforest. We tested the CTmax and Thermal Safety Margins (TSM) of these food webs with implications for how species interactions could shift under climate change. We identified strong influence of phylogeny in herbivore–parasitoid community heat tolerance. The TSM of all insects were narrower in the canopy and parasitoids had lower heat tolerance compared to their hosts. Our CTmax-based simulation showed higher herbivore–parasitoid food web instability under climate change than previously assumed, highlighting the vulnerability of parasitoids and related herbivore control in tropical rainforests, particularly in the forest canopy.     

Correlates of extinction vulnerability in Canadian’s prairie ecoregion

Identifying the correlates of extinction can help prioritize species for conservation effort, an important step when developing effective conservation policies. Most previous studies on extinction vulnerability have been restricted to a single predictor within a specific region. To understand the mechanism underlying predictors of extinction risk, an examination of the contribution of various factors at different scales is an important step. We investigated the contribution of phylogeny, ploidy level, habitat breadth, and life form on both provincial and national conservation ranks of Alberta’s prairie ecoregion plant species. We collected data on conservation status, chromosome number, habitat breadth, and life form for 1274 species. We used phylogenetic comparative models to assess (1) the relative contribution, significance, and possible interaction of predictor variables in determining extinction vulnerability, and (2) the possible underlying mechanisms governing observed patterns of extinction vulnerability at the provincial and national level. We find that the contribution, significance, and predictive power of variables were often scale-dependent. While the impact of habitat breadth was significant at both provincial and national scales, ploidy and life form was only significant at the national and provincial level, respectively. We also found a significant negative interaction between ploidy and habitat breadth at both geographical scales, such that among widespread species (species with a higher habitat breadth), diploids are less likely to be at risk than polyploids. Our study reveals the importance of the study scale on the accuracy of extinction prediction. We also suggest that discriminating between regionally restricted and non-restricted species could improve the predictability of sub-global extinction patterns.

     

Effects of climate change on Canada’s Pacific marine ecosystems: a summary of scientific knowledge

The marine life of Canada’s Pacific marine ecosystems, adjacent to the province of British Columbia, may be relatively responsive to rapid oceanographic and environmental change associated with global climate change due to uniquely evolved plasticities and resiliencies as well as particular sensitivities and vulnerabilities, given this dynamic and highly textured natural setting. These marine ecosystems feature complex interfaces of coastal geomorphology, climate, and oceanography, including a dynamic oceanographic and ecological transition zone formed by the divergence of the North Pacific Current into the Alaskan coastal current and the California Current, and by currents transporting warm tropical waters from the south. Despite long-term warming in the region, sea surface temperatures in Canada’s Pacific have been anomalously cool since 2007 with La Niña-type conditions prevailing as we enter a cool phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, possibly masking future warming. When warmer El Niño conditions prevail, many southern species invade, strongly impacting local species and reorganizing biological communities. Acidification and deoxygenation are anomalously high in the region due to the weakening ventilation of subsurface waters resulting from increased stratification. A broad spectrum of biological responses to these changes are expected. Non-climate anthropogenic stressors affect the capacity of biota to adapt to climate changes. It will be challenging to forecast the responses of particular species, and to map climate vulnerabilities accurately enough to help prioritize and guide adaptation planning. It will be more challenging to develop forecasts that account for indirect effects within biological communities and the intricate and apparently non-deterministic behaviours of highly complex and variable marine ecosystems, such as those of Canada’s Pacific. We recommend and outline national and regional climate assessments in Canada and adaptation planning and implementation including integrated coastal management and marine spatial planning and management.     

Identifying ‘climate keystone species’ as a tool for conserving ecological communities under climate change

Aim

Climate change affects ecological communities via impacts on species. The community's response to climate change can be represented as the temporal trend in a climate-related functional property that is quantified using a relevant functional trait. Noteworthy, some species influence this response in the community more strongly than others.

Innovation

Leveraging on the concept of keystone species, we propose that species with a strong effect on the community's functional response to climate change beyond their relative abundance can be considered as ‘climate keystone species’. We develop a stepwise tool to determine species' effects on a community's climate response and identify climate keystone species. We quantify the species-specific effect by measuring the difference in the community's climate response with and without the species. Next, we identify climate keystone species as those with a strong residual effect after weighting with their relative abundances in the community.

Main Conclusions

To illustrate the use of the stepwise tool with empirical data, we identify climate keystone species that have a strong effect on the change in the average temperature niche in North American bird communities over time and find the identification tool ecologically relevant. Identification of climate keystone species can serve as an additional conservation method to efficiently protect ecological communities and, in turn, the ecosystem functions they provide.     

Biodiversity monitoring: some proposals to adequately study species’ responses to climate change

Climate change affects all levels of biology and is a major threat for biodiversity. Hence, it is fundamental to run biodiversity monitoring programs to understand the effects of climate change on the biota and to be able to adjust management and conservation accordingly. So far, however, very few existing monitoring programs allow for the detection of climate change effects, as shown by a survey undertaken by the European project EuMon. Despite this shortcoming, several methods exist which allow to make inferences from existing data by integrating data across different monitoring programs: correlative analyses, meta-analyses and models. In addition, experiments are thought to be useful tools to understand the effects of climate change on plants and animals. Here, we evaluate the utility of these four main approaches. All these methods allow to evaluate long term effects of climate change and make predictions of species’ future development, but they are arguable. We list and compare their benefits and inconveniences, which can lead to uncertainties in the extrapolation of species responses to global climate change. Individual characteristics and population parameters have to be more frequently monitored. The potential evolution of a species should be also modelled, to extrapolate results across spatial and temporal scales as well as to analyse the combined effects of different climatic and biotic factors, including intra but also interspecific relationships. We conclude that a combination of methodologies would be the most promising tool for the assessment of biological responses to climate change, and we provide some thoughts about how to do so. Particularly, we encourage long-term studies along natural gradients (altitudinal or latitudinal) on the same species/habitats to be able to extrapolate to large geographic scales, and to have more complete data sets, necessary to understand the mechanisms of responses. Such data may provide a more accurate base for simulations across spatial and temporal scales, especially if they are publicly available in a common database. These recommendations could allow the adaptation of species management and the development of conservation tools to climate change which threatens species.     

The future of soil invertebrate communities in polar regions: different climate change responses in the Arctic and Antarctic?

The polar regions are experiencing rapid climate change with implications for terrestrial ecosystems. Here, despite limited knowledge, we make some early predictions on soil invertebrate community responses to predicted twenty‐first century climate change. Geographic and environmental differences suggest that climate change responses will differ between the Arctic and Antarctic. We predict significant, but different, belowground community changes in both regions. This change will be driven mainly by vegetation type changes in the Arctic, while communities in Antarctica will respond to climate amelioration directly and indirectly through changes in microbial community composition and activity, and the development of, and/or changes in, plant communities. Climate amelioration is likely to allow a greater influx of non‐native species into both the Arctic and Antarctic promoting landscape scale biodiversity change. Non‐native competitive species could, however, have negative effects on local biodiversity particularly in the Arctic where the communities are already species rich. Species ranges will shift in both areas as the climate changes potentially posing a problem for endemic species in the Arctic where options for northward migration are limited. Greater soil biotic activity may move the Arctic towards a trajectory of being a substantial carbon source, while Antarctica could become a carbon sink.     

The opening of Pandora’s Box: climate change impacts on soil fertility and crop nutrition in developing countries

Feeding the world’s growing population is a serious challenge. Food insecurity is concentrated in developing nations, where drought and low soil fertility are primary constraints to food production. Many crops in developing countries are supported by weathered soils in which nutrient deficiencies and ion toxicities are common. Many systems have declining soil fertility due to inadequate use of fertility inputs, ongoing soil degradation, and increasingly intense resource use by burgeoning populations. Climate models predict that warmer temperatures and increases in the frequency and duration of drought during the 21st century will have net negative effects on agricultural productivity. The potential effects of climate change on soil fertility and the ability of crops to acquire and utilize soil nutrients is poorly understood, but is essential for understanding the future of global agriculture. This paper explores how rising temperature, drought and more intense precipitation events projected in climate change scenarios for the 21st century might affect soil fertility and the mineral nutrition of crops in developing countries. The effects of climate change on erosion rates, soil organic carbon losses, soil moisture, root growth and function, root-microbe associations and plant phenology as they relate to mineral nutrition are discussed. Our analysis suggests that the negative impacts of climate change on soil fertility and mineral nutrition of crops will far exceed beneficial effects, which would intensify food insecurity, particularly in developing countries.     

The role of nitrogen in climate change and the impacts of nitrogen–climate interactions in the United States: foreword to thematic issue

Producing food, transportation, and energy for seven billion people has led to large and widespread increases in the use of synthetic nitrogen (N) fertilizers and fossil fuel combustion, resulting in a leakage of N into the environment as various forms of air and water pollution. The global N cycle is more severely altered by human activity than the global carbon (C) cycle, and reactive N dynamics affect all aspects of climate change considerations, including mitigation, adaptation, and impacts. In this special issue of Biogeochemistry, we present a review of the climate–nitrogen interactions based on a technical report for the United States National Climate Assessment presented as individual papers for terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, agriculture and human health within the US. We provide a brief overview of each of the paper’s main points and conclusions is presented in this foreword summary.     

Effects of temperature and drought on early life stages in three species of butterflies: Mortality of early life stages as a key determinant of vulnerability to climate change?

Anthropogenic climate change poses substantial challenges to biodiversity conservation. Well‐documented responses include phenological and range shifts, and declines in cold but increases in warm‐adapted species. Thus, some species will suffer while others will benefit from ongoing change, although the biological features determining the prospects of a given species under climate change are largely unknown. By comparing three related butterfly species of different vulnerability to climate change, we show that stress tolerance during early development may be of key importance. The arguably most vulnerable species showed the strongest decline in egg hatching success under heat and desiccation stress, and similar pattern also for hatchling mortality. Research, especially on insects, is often focussed on the adult stage only. Thus, collating more data on stress tolerance in different life stages will be of crucial importance for enhancing our abilities to predict the fate of particular species and populations under ongoing climate change.     

Responses of benthic–pelagic coupling to climate change in a temperate estuary

This article reports the first demonstration of the impact of climate change on benthic–pelagic coupling and the biogeochemical cycles of a coastal marine system. Over the last 30 years Narragansett Bay, a 328-km² temperate estuary on the east coast of the United States, has undergone a variety of ecological changes. Building on a robust data set that spans three decades, we present a link between warming (+1.7°C in annual mean water temperature) in the bay and a marked decrease in sediment oxygen consumption, in the fluxes of ammonium and phosphate from sediments to the overlying water, and in sediment denitrification. We attribute this reduction in biogeochemical exchange to a dramatic drop in the standing crop of water-column chlorophyll as the system has shifted from one characterized by a dominant winter–spring bloom to one supported by more ephemeral and less intense summer–autumn blooms. The recent climate-induced oligotrophication of the bay will be further exacerbated by forthcoming nitrogen reductions due to tertiary sewage treatment. Guest editors: J. H. Andersen & D. J. Conley Eutrophication in Coastal Ecosystems: Selected papers from the Second International Symposium on Research and Management of Eutrophication in Coastal Ecosystems, 20–23 June 2006, Nyborg, Denmark     

Projecting species’ vulnerability to climate change: Which uncertainty sources matter most and extrapolate best?

Species distribution models (SDMs) are commonly used to assess potential climate change impacts on biodiversity, but several critical methodological decisions are often made arbitrarily. We compare variability arising from these decisions to the uncertainty in future climate change itself. We also test whether certain choices offer improved skill for extrapolating to a changed climate and whether internal cross‐validation skill indicates extrapolative skill. We compared projected vulnerability for 29 wetland‐dependent bird species breeding in the climatically dynamic Prairie Pothole Region, USA. For each species we built 1,080 SDMs to represent a unique combination of: future climate, class of climate covariates, collinearity level, and thresholding procedure. We examined the variation in projected vulnerability attributed to each uncertainty source. To assess extrapolation skill under a changed climate, we compared model predictions with observations from historic drought years. Uncertainty in projected vulnerability was substantial, and the largest source was that of future climate change. Large uncertainty was also attributed to climate covariate class with hydrological covariates projecting half the range loss of bioclimatic covariates or other summaries of temperature and precipitation. We found that choices based on performance in cross‐validation improved skill in extrapolation. Qualitative rankings were also highly uncertain. Given uncertainty in projected vulnerability and resulting uncertainty in rankings used for conservation prioritization, a number of considerations appear critical for using bioclimatic SDMs to inform climate change mitigation strategies. Our results emphasize explicitly selecting climate summaries that most closely represent processes likely to underlie ecological response to climate change. For example, hydrological covariates projected substantially reduced vulnerability, highlighting the importance of considering whether water availability may be a more proximal driver than precipitation. However, because cross‐validation results were correlated with extrapolation results, the use of cross‐validation performance metrics to guide modeling choices where knowledge is limited was supported.     

Digest: Will invaders adapt to climate change?*

One hypothesis for invasive species’ success is that they show high potential to evolve in response to environmental change. Logan et al. evaluate this hypothesis in the invasive harlequin ladybeetle (Harmonia axyridis), using a breeding experiment to determine the genetic architecture of traits underlying thermal tolerance. Lack of heritable variation in some of these traits, and genetic correlations leading to trade-offs in others, suggest this species has limited potential to evolve in response to climate change.     

Plant extinction risk under climate change: are forecast range shifts alone a good indicator of species vulnerability to global warming?

Models that couple habitat suitability with demographic processes offer a potentially improved approach for estimating spatial distributional shifts and extinction risk under climate change. Applying such an approach to five species of Australian plants with contrasting demographic traits, we show that: (i) predicted climate‐driven changes in range area are sensitive to the underlying habitat model, regardless of whether demographic traits and their interaction with habitat patch configuration are modeled explicitly; and (ii) caution should be exercised when using predicted changes in total habitat suitability or geographic extent to infer extinction risk, because the relationship between these metrics is often weak. Measures of extinction risk, which quantify threats to population persistence, are particularly sensitive to life‐history traits, such as recruitment response to fire, which explained approximately 60% of the deviance in expected minimum abundance. Dispersal dynamics and habitat patch structure have the strongest influence on the amount of movement of the trailing and leading edge of the range margin, explaining roughly 40% of modeled structural deviance. These results underscore the need to consider direct measures of extinction risk (population declines and other measures of stochastic viability), as well as measures of change in habitat area, when assessing climate change impacts on biodiversity. Furthermore, direct estimation of extinction risk incorporates important demographic and ecosystem processes, which potentially influence species’ vulnerability to extinction due to climate change.     

The role of trematode parasites in larval anuran communities: an aquatic ecologist’s guide to the major players

Conservation strategies depend on our understanding of the ecosystem and community dynamics. To date, such understanding has focused mostly on predator–prey and competitor interactions. It is increasingly clear, however, that parasite–host interactions may represent a large, and important, component of natural communities. The need to consider multiple factors and their synergistic interactions if we are to elucidate the contribution of anthropogenic factors to loss in biodiversity is exemplified by research into present-day amphibian declines. Only recently has the role of factors such as trematode parasite infections been incorporated into studies of the population and community dynamics of aquatic systems. We argue that this is due, at least in part, to difficulties faced by aquatic ecologists in sifting through the complex systematics that pervade the parasite literature. We note that two trematode species are of dominant importance with regard to North American larval anuran communities, and provide in this review a clear explanation of how to distinguish between the infective stages of these two parasites. We describe the general biology and life history of these parasites, as well as what is known about their effect on larval anurans, and the interactive effects of environmental stressors (typically anthropogenic in nature) and parasites on larval anurans. We hope that this review will convince the reader of the potential importance of these parasites to aquatic communities in general, and to amphibian communities specifically, and will also provide the information necessary for aquatic ecologists to more frequently consider the role of these parasites in their studies of aquatic ecology.