Growth response of subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa) to climate in the Olympic Mountains, Washington, USA

Growth response of subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa) to climate was studied across its local geographical and elevation range in the Olympic Mountains, Washington. A dendroecological analysis of subalpine fir across a range of elevations (1350-1850 m) and annual precipitation (125-350 cm y^?1), was used to compare environmental factors affecting growth. Climate-growth relationships were explored using Pearson product-moment correlation coefficients; partial correlation analysis was used to assess relationships among site chronologies and climatic variables. Radial growth is negatively correlated with winter precipitation at high elevation and wet sites, but not at low and middle elevation dry sites. Growth is positively correlated with current growing season temperature at all sites; however, growth is negatively correlated with previous year August temperature, indicating that climate affects growth in subsequent years. Positive correlations between growth and summer precipitation during the growing season at low and middle elevation dry sites suggest that soil moisture is partially limiting to growth on these sites. If the climate of the Pacific Northwest becomes warmer and drier, then subalpine fir growth may increase at high elevation and wet sites, but may decrease at lower elevation dry sites in the Olympic Mountains. However, the growth response of subalpine fir to potentially rapid climate change will not be uniform because subalpine fir grows over a wide range of topographic features, habitats, and local climates at different geographical scales. A comparison of growth response to current growing season temperature suggests that the temperature-related growth response of subalpine fir is not adequately described by the parabolic curve used in JABOWA-based models.     

Managed grazing is an effective strategy to restore habitat for the endangered autumn buttercup (Ranunculus aestivalis)

The only protected habitat of the endangered autumn buttercup is a small, overgrown, wet meadow that no longer supports the species. We used an experimentally driven reintroduction to examine the role of rodent herbivory in limiting the survival and establishment of autumn buttercup at the site. We evaluated the effectiveness of livestock grazing and cages to exclude rodents by comparing survival of caged and uncaged transplants under two pasture management treatments (grazed vs. ungrazed). We found that transplant survival was greatest for caged plants in grazed pasture with 50% of plants surviving to the end of the second growing season. Grazing increased the species richness in the plant community and decreased the amount of cover for small mammals. Accordingly, rodent density and vole herbivory in late summer were significantly lower on grazed pasture. Our results indicate that rodent herbivores represent a major threat to the survival and reestablishment of autumn buttercup and livestock grazing and protective caging are effective strategies to reduce rodent populations and vole herbivory.     

Importance of Seasonality for the Response of a Mesic Temperate Grassland to Increased Precipitation Variability and Warming

Timing of precipitation events within the growing season and the non-uniformity of warming might be decisive for alterations in productivity and community composition, with consequences for ecosystem functioning. The responses of aboveground production, community composition, functional group and species evenness to altered intra-annual precipitation variability and their interactions with winter or summer warming were examined in European, mesic temperate grassland. Increased precipitation variability with an induced spring drought resulted in a 17% reduction in ANPP, and late drought reduced ANPP by 18% compared to regular rainfall patterns throughout the entire growing season. Winter warming increased ANPP by 12%, whereas summer warming showed no significant effect on biomass but decreased species richness. The effects of increased precipitation variability and warming on ANPP were independent of each other. Forbs benefited from high precipitation variability with spring drought events, likely due to reduced competitive pressure by decreasing, water stressed grasses. Increased precipitation variability coinciding with higher summer temperatures led to reduced species evenness and likely promoted the establishment of specialists and drought-tolerant species. Seasonality of climatic factors, here early versus late drought events in the high precipitation variability treatments, was important in driving shifts in community composition but not for decreases in ANPP. Non-uniform warming, here winter versus summer, affected the direction of response of both community composition and ANPP. Variability of resources is affecting ecosystem processes and species interactions. Recognition of seasonality and non-uniformity of climatic factors will improve predictions of plant performance and biotic interactions in response to climate change.     

Summer irrigation,grazing and seed addition differentially influence community composition in an invaded serpentine grassland

Community assembly theory predicts that resource availability, biotic interactions, and dispersal dynamics will determine community composition. Recent work has demonstrated that manipulating these processes or “filters” to exclude exotic species may assist in restoring invaded plant communities. In this study, we began by manipulating an abiotic filter, summer water availability, on the theory that irrigation prior to the growing season could trigger the germination of exotic species during unfavorable environmental conditions. First, we performed a greenhouse experiment to assess the germination traits of 23 native and exotic species at low (16°C, spring) and high (30°C, summer) temperatures. At summer temperatures, we found high emergence of many exotic and native grasses and low emergence of native forbs suggesting that summer irrigation may help deplete the exotic seed bank. In a second experiment, we established field plots to test the efficacy of summer irrigation and simultaneously manipulated a biotic and a dispersal filter, subjecting some plots to grazing and/or native seed addition. Summer irrigation and seed addition had no effect on percent cover or species richness while grazing reduced native cover but increased native species richness and soil nitrogen content. Our data suggest that manipulating grazing (a biotic filter) may be more effective than altering abiotic or dispersal filters when restoring invaded serpentine grassland. However, summer irrigation may also be effective, if applied at lower temperatures or for longer periods.     

Succession and fluctuation in Artemisia dominated grassland

Vegetation dynamics were studied from 1940 to 1978 in two grazed pastures and associated exclosures in sand sagebrush (Artemisia filifolia) dominated grassland, western Oklahoma, USA. In both pastures and one exclosure, pattern of vegetation change reflected fluctuation rather than succession. In the other exclosure, the grassland exhibited a directional change from annual grasses and forbs to dominance by perennial grasses. Rate of change was consistent during the 39 year period. Cover of grasses increased more in grazed than ungrazed areas. Grass cover was negatively correlated with high air temperatures early in the growing season. Forb cover remained relatively constant over time and shrub cover peaked during the 1960s. Abundance of annuals and cool season species was positively correlated with rainfall early in the growing season.Species diversity and richness were lowest in the ungrazed areas, as a result of increased dominance by perennial grasses such as Schizachyrium scoparium. In pastures and exclosures, richness was positively correlated with growing season precipitation. Cover of the common species differed among sample areas within years and fluctuated between years. Few general patterns emerged from correlations of environmental variables with cover of individual species. In general, vegetation dynamics in these sand sagebrush grasslands reflect a tradeoff in that total cover changes little over time because the loss of some species is compensated for by increased growth of others. Such trade-offs reflect the individualistic response of the component species within each pasture or exclosure. Although changes in growth form composition were related to climatic fluctuation, broad-scale climatic variables could not successfully predict small-scale patterns of change by individual species over time.     

Population dynamics of a diverse rodent assemblage in mixed grass-shrub habitat, southeastern Colorado, 1995-2000

We followed seasonal and year-to-year population dynamics for a diverse rodent assemblage in a short-grass prairie ecosystem in southeastern Colorado (USA) for 6 yr. We captured 2,798 individual rodents (range, one to 812 individuals per species) belonging to 19 species. The two most common species, deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus) and western harvest mice (Reithrodontomys megalotis), generally had population peaks in winter and nadirs in summer; several other murid species demonstrated autumn peaks and spring nadirs; heteromyids were infrequently captured in winter, and populations generally peaked in summer or autumn. Inter-annual trends indicated an interactive effect between temperature and precipitation. Conditions associated with low rodent populations or population declines were high precipitation during cold periods (autumn and winter) and low precipitation during warm periods (spring and summer). Severity of adverse effects varied by species. Heteromyids, for example, were apparently not negatively affected by the hot, dry spring and summer of 2000. Cross-correlations for the temporal series of relative population abundances between species pairs (which are affected by both seasonal and interannual population dynamics) revealed positive associations among most murids and among most heteromyids, but there were negative associations between murids and heteromyids. These results have important implications for those attempting to model population dynamics of rodent populations for purposes of predicting disease risk.     

Prediction of Peromyscus maniculatus (deer mouse) population dynamics in Montana, USA, using satellite-driven vegetation productivity and weather data

Deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus) are the main reservoir host for Sin Nombre virus, the primary etiologic agent of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome in North America. Sequential changes in weather and plant productivity (trophic cascades) have been noted as likely catalysts of deer mouse population irruptions, and monitoring and modeling of these phenomena may allow for development of early-warning systems for disease risk. Relationships among weather variables, satellite-derived vegetation productivity, and deer mouse populations were examined for a grassland site east of the Continental Divide and a sage-steppe site west of the Continental Divide in Montana, USA. We acquired monthly deer mouse population data for mid-1994 through 2007 from long-term study sites maintained for monitoring changes in hantavirus reservoir populations, and we compared these with monthly bioclimatology data from the same period and gross primary productivity data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer sensor for 2000-06. We used the Random Forests statistical learning technique to fit a series of predictive models based on temperature, precipitation, and vegetation productivity variables. Although we attempted several iterations of models, including incorporating lag effects and classifying rodent density by seasonal thresholds, our results showed no ability to predict rodent populations using vegetation productivity or weather data. We concluded that trophic cascade connections to rodent population levels may be weaker than originally supposed, may be specific to only certain climatic regions, or may not be detectable using remotely sensed vegetation productivity measures, although weather patterns and vegetation dynamics were positively correlated.     

Between-year variation in climate-related growth of circumarctic populations of the moss Hylocomium splendens

1. The correlation between climatic variables and past (up to 20 years) growth was studied in seven circumarctic populations of the moss Hylocomium splendens, using retrospective analyses of growth. We hypothesized that relationships between growth and climate would be simpler in an ectohydric moss than in higher plants and that the moss could provide high signal-to-noise ratios of responses to climatic variation.
2. Growth parameters of the moss were strongly correlated with early summer temperatures and with the length of the growing season. Annual segment mass, growth rates and degeneration rates were highest at the mildest subarctic sites and lowest at the high arctic site. In contrast, 'longevity' (age of the oldest segment) increased at the climatically harsher sites.
3. Between-year growth variations at two contrasting sites were significantly correlated with June and July temperatures and, to a lesser extent, with early-season precipitation at one of the sites.
4. The moss currently tolerates a wide range of climates and large interannual variations in temperature and is likely to be at risk from climatic change only at the southern edge of its range.
5. The climate-change component most likely to affect the growth of H. splendens in the Arctic and Subarctic will be a lengthening of the growing season and in increase in early summer temperatures provided that moisture is not limiting.
6. Hylocomium splendens is a suitable species for monitoring climatic change at a circumarctic scale.     

GENETIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONTROL OF GLYCOLIC ACID OXIDASE ACTIVITY IN ECOTYPIC POPULATIONS OF TYPHA LATIFOLIA

Glycolic acid oxidase activity at 25 C in leaf homogenates of ecotypic populations of Typha latifolia varied according to native climate of the population and current growing conditions. Activity of plants grown under warm/short day conditions was positively correlated with maximum summer temperature at the site of population origin. Activity of plants grown under cool/ long day conditions was negatively correlated with length of growing season at the site of origin. Populations from sites characterized by a long growing season are much less susceptible to environmental regulation of enzymic level than populations originating in short growing season sites. Enzyme activity is not a secondary reflection of differentiation at the level of chlorophyll or cofactor concentration. Enzymic differences between ecotypic populations reflect differences in control systems at the level of protein synthesis and genetic structure.     

Application of a 15N tracer to simulate and track the fate of atmospherically deposited N in the coastal forests of the Waquoit Bay Watershed, Cape Cod, Massachusetts

The central grassland region of the United States encompasses major gradients in temperature and precipitation that determine the distribution of plant life forms, which in turn may influence key ecosystem processes such as nutrient cycling and soil organic matter dynamics. One such gradient is the threefold increase in precipitation from the eastern Colorado shortgrass-steppe, in the rain shadow of the Rocky Mountains, to the tallgrass prairie in eastern Kansas. We investigated the relative roles of plant species and plant cover in influencing soil C and N cycling in three sites along this gradient. Plant cover (i.e., the presence or absence of an individual plant) was relatively more important than plant species in explaining variability in soil properties at the dry site, the Central Plains Experimental Range in␣northeastern Colorado. However, plant species explained relatively more of the variability in soil properties than did plant cover at the two wetter sites, Hays and Konza, in central and eastern Kansas. The wetter sites had more continuous plant cover, resulting in less plant-cover-induced variation in soil C and N, than did the dry site, which had distinct patches of bare ground. Plant species at the wetter sites had higher and more variable levels of tissue C:N than plant species at the dry site, due to both within species changes and changes in species composition. Aboveground tissue C:N was better correlated with net nitrogen mineralization rates at the wet sites than the dry site. Thus, tissue chemistry appears to exert more control on nitrogen dynamics at the wet than the dry sites. The results suggest that plant species traits that are relevant to nutrient cycling (e.g., tissue C:N ratios, spatial patterns, productivity) reflect environmental limitations as well as species' physiological potentials. Furthermore, a dominant environmental driver such as precipitation may ameliorate or exaggerate the importance of individual species traits for nutrient cycling. Received: 11 July 1996 / Accepted: 5 December 1996     

Predicted responses of arctic and alpine ecosystems to altered seasonality under climate change

Global climate change is already having significant impacts on arctic and alpine ecosystems, and ongoing increases in temperature and altered precipitation patterns will affect the strong seasonal patterns that characterize these temperature‐limited systems. The length of the potential growing season in these tundra environments is increasing due to warmer temperatures and earlier spring snow melt. Here, we compare current and projected climate and ecological data from 20 Northern Hemisphere sites to identify how seasonal changes in the physical environment due to climate change will alter the seasonality of arctic and alpine ecosystems. We find that although arctic and alpine ecosystems appear similar under historical climate conditions, climate change will lead to divergent responses, particularly in the spring and fall shoulder seasons. As seasonality changes in the Arctic, plants will advance the timing of spring phenological events, which could increase plant nutrient uptake, production, and ecosystem carbon (C) gain. In alpine regions, photoperiod will constrain spring plant phenology, limiting the extent to which the growing season can lengthen, especially if decreased water availability from earlier snow melt and warmer summer temperatures lead to earlier senescence. The result could be a shorter growing season with decreased production and increased nutrient loss. These contrasting alpine and arctic ecosystem responses will have cascading effects on ecosystems, affecting community structure, biotic interactions, and biogeochemistry.     

Increased Soil Frost Versus Summer Drought as Drivers of Plant Biomass Responses to Reduced Precipitation: Results from a Globally Coordinated Field Experiment

Reduced precipitation treatments often are used in field experiments to explore the effects of drought on plant productivity and species composition. However, in seasonally snow-covered regions reduced precipitation also reduces snow cover, which can increase soil frost depth, decrease minimum soil temperatures and increase soil freeze–thaw cycles. Therefore, in addition to the effects of reduced precipitation on plants via drought, freezing damage to overwintering plant tissues at or below the soil surface could further affect plant productivity and relative species abundances during the growing season. We examined the effects of both reduced rainfall (via rain-out shelters) and reduced snow cover (via snow removal) at 13 sites globally (primarily grasslands) within the framework of the International Drought Experiment, a coordinated distributed experiment. Plant cover was estimated at the species level, and aboveground biomass was quantified at the functional group level. Among sites, we observed a negative correlation between the snow removal effect on minimum soil temperature and plant biomass production the next growing season. Three sites exhibited significant rain-out shelter effects on plant productivity, but there was no correlation among sites between the rain-out shelter effect on minimum soil moisture and plant biomass. There was no interaction between snow removal and rain-out shelters for plant biomass, although these two factors only exhibited significant effects simultaneously for a single site. Overall, our results reveal that reduced snowfall, when it decreases minimum soil temperatures, can be an important component of the total effect of reduced precipitation on plant productivity.     

Biotic and abiotic effects on endoparasites infecting Dipodomys and Perognathus species

Between 1989 and 1998, 3,504 rodents of the genera Dipodomys and Perognathus were collected from 4 permanent collecting sites on the University of New Mexico's Long Term Ecological Research station, located on the Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge (SNWR), Socorro County. New Mexico. All animals were killed and examined for endoparasites (acanthocephalans, cestodes, coccidia, and nematodes). The present report focuses on 3 endoparasite groups, cestodes, coccidia, and nematodes. Specific analyses address how prevalence changes were related to abiotic factors such as habitat, season, or precipitation, and how prevalence of each parasite species in each host species differed in relation to host age, host sex, host reproductive status, host body mass, host density, parasite-parasite interactions, and host specificity. A logistic regression was used to determine which host characters and which abiotic factors are correlated with a parasite infection. Significant variables for at least half of the parasites include season, site, and winter precipitation. However, no parasite prevalences were correlated, and significant variables were not identical between parasites, indicating that each parasite species varied independently and that no generalizations can be drawn. The parasite prevalences in these rodents on the SNWR vary in independent and complex ways.     

Disturbance Frequency and Community Stability in Native Tallgrass Prairie

Ecological communities are spatially and temporally variable in response to a variety of biotic and abiotic forces. It is not always clear, however, if spatial and temporal variability leads to instability in communities. Instability may result from strong biotic interactions or from stochastic processes acting on small populations. I used 10-15 yr of annual data from the Konza Prairie Long-Term Ecological Research site to examine whether plant, breeding bird, grasshopper, and small mammal communities in tallgrass prairie exhibit stability or directional change in response to different experimentally induced fire frequencies. Based on ordination and ANOVA, plant and grasshopper communities on annually burned sites differed significantly from plant and grasshopper communities on less frequently burned sites. Breeding birds and small mammals differed among sites as well, but these differences were not clearly related to disturbance frequency. A modified time series analysis indicated that plant communities were undergoing directional change (unstable) on all watersheds, regardless of fire frequency. Contrary to expectations, directional change was greatest on the annually burned sites and lowest on the infrequently burned sites. Unlike the plant communities, breeding bird, grasshopper, and small mammal communities were temporally stable, despite high-compositional variability from 1 yr to the next. Stability among the consumer communities within these dynamic plant communities occurs because three-dimensional vegetation structure does not change over time, despite changes in plant species composition. Evidence suggests that instability in the plant community results from strong biotic interactions among temporally persistent core species and stochastic dynamics among infrequent satellite species. Overall, community stability cannot be assessed if the pattern of temporal dynamics is unknown. Long-term empirical studies of different taxa under different disturbance regimes are needed to determine over what time frames and spatial scales communities may be stable. Such studies are essential for the development of generalities regarding the relationship between disturbance frequency and community stability in terrestrial and aquatic systems.     

The influence of herbivory on plant cover and species composition in the Pryor Mountain Wild Horse Range,USA

We investigated the effects of short- and long-term ungulate grazing on plant species cover and composition in arid lowland and more mesic upland communities of the Pryor Mountain Wild Horse Range (PMWHR). Measurements were taken over two years which differed significantly in growing season precipitation. Interannual differences in plant cover were significantly greater than differences between grazed and ungrazed communities. In the arid lowlands total plant cover decreased from 47% in 1993, a relatively wet year, to 29% in 1994, a relatively dry year. In the more mesic uplands total plant cover decreased from 107% in 1993 to 56% in 1994. The magnitude of change in cover was greatest in the grasses, especially for Pseudoroegneria spicata, the most abundant species in the lowland communities, which decreased from 21% cover in 1993 to 11% in 1994. There was not a consistent effect of herbivory on plant cover across sites, but its effects, particularly on the dominant perennial grasses, were conspicuous at some sites. For instance, in the lowlands cover of P. spicata was 3–12% in long-term grazed sites and 9–28% in short- to long-term ungrazed sites. Our study indicates that abiotic factors (e.g., precipitation) are more likely than grazing to affect abundances of key plant species, and hence ecosystem dynamics, in the PMWHR, and that the effects of herbivory are more localized and more prevalent in the lowland grasses than in the other plant functional groups.     

Vegetation change following removal of keystone herbivores from desert grasslands in New Mexico

Abstract. Responses of plant communities to mammalian herbivores vary widely, due to variation in plant species composition, herbivore densities, forage preferences, soils, and climate. In this study, we evaluated vegetation changes on 30 sites within and adjacent to the Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge (SNWR) in central New Mexico, USA, over a 20‐yr period following removal of the major herbivores (livestock and prairie dogs) in 1972–1975. The study sites were established in 1976, and were resampled in 1986 and 1996 using line transect methods. At the landscape scale, repeated measures ANOVA of percentage cover measurements showed no significant overall net changes in total perennial plant basal cover, either with or without herbivores present; however, there was an overall increase in annual forbs and plant litter from 1976 to 1996. At the site scale, significant changes in species composition and dominance were observed both through time and across the SNWR boundary. Site histories varied widely, with sites dominated by Bouteloua eriopoda being the most dynamic and sites dominated by Scleropogon brevifolius being the most persistent. Species‐specific changes also were observed across multiple sites: B. eriopoda cover increased while Gutierrezia sarothrae greatly decreased. The non‐uniform, multi‐directional changes of the sites' vegetation acted to prevent detection of overall changes in perennial vegetation at the landscape level. Some sites displayed significant changes after removal of herbivores, while others appeared to respond primarily to climate dynamics. Certain species that were not preferred by livestock or prairie dogs, showed overall declines during drought periods, while other preferred species exhibited widespread increases during wetter periods regardless of herbivore presence. Therefore, the vegetation dynamics cannot be attributed solely to removal of herbivores, and in some cases can be explained by short‐ and long‐term fluctuations in climate. These results emphasize the variety of responses of sites with differences in vegetation to mammalian herbivores under otherwise similar climatic conditions, and illustrate the value of site‐ and landscape‐scale approaches to understanding the impacts of plant‐herbivore interactions.     

Habitat degradation,topography and rainfall variability interact to determine seed distribution and recruitment in a sand dune grassland

Question: Understanding the mechanisms underlying how habitat degradation, topography and rainfall variability interactively affect seed distribution and seedling recruitment is crucial for explaining plant community patterns and dynamics. Interactions between these major factors were studied together in a semiarid sand dune grassland. Location: Eastern Inner Mongolia, China. Methods: The study system used four sites of fixed, semifixed, semishifting and shifting sand dune grasslands, representing a gradient of habitat degradation. We investigated the density of germinable seeds deposited in the top 5 cm of soil and in situ seedling emergence (number of seedlings emerging early in the growing season) and establishment (number of plants recruited at the end of the growing season) at three topographic positions (dune top, windward and leeward sides) within each site over 2 years that differed in rainfall. Habitat characteristics (i.e. vegetation cover, plant species composition and diversity, soil moisture and nutrient availability and soil erodibility) of the four sites were also measured. Results: Habitat degradation (i.e. decreased vegetation cover and enhanced wind erosion rate) significantly reduced the size of the germinable soil seed bank. On average, germinable seed number from the high‐vegetation cover fixed dune was 36‐fold larger than the low‐vegetation cover shifting dune, and eight‐ and two‐fold larger, respectively, than the semishifting and semifixed dunes with intermediate vegetation cover. We observed within‐habitat variability in seed distribution, but among‐topographic position variation differed among habitats. Seedling recruitment showed large between‐year, and among‐ and within‐habitat variability, but these variations varied significantly depending on the response variables evaluated (i.e. initial seedling density, final plant density, emergence rate and recruitment rate). Path analysis revealed complex density‐dependent positive and negative, direct and indirect effects of germinable seed density and initial seedling density on recruitment, but the relative importance of these density‐dependent effects varied depending on habitat type and rainfall availability. Conclusion: Our results suggest that habitat degradation, microtopography and rainfall availability interact in shaping sand dune seed bank and plant community recruitment patterns and dynamics. Their effects were mainly mediated through changes in both the biotic and abiotic environment during the process of habitat deterioration.     

Microhabitat characteristics of Akodon montensis,a reservoir for hantavirus,and hantaviral seroprevalence in an Atlantic forest site in eastern Paraguay

Hantaviruses may cause serious disease when transmitted to humans by their rodent hosts. Since their emergence in the Americas in 1993, there have been extensive efforts to understand the role of environmental factors on the presence of these viruses in their host rodent populations. HPS outbreaks have been linked to precipitation, but climatic factors alone have not been sufficient to predict the spatial‐temporal dynamics of the environment‐reservoir‐virus system. Using a series of mark‐recapture sampling sites located at the Mbaracayú Biosphere Reserve, an Atlantic Forest site in eastern Paraguay, we investigated the hypothesis that microhabitat might also influence the prevalence of Jaborá hantavirus within populations of its reservoir species, Akodon montensis. Seven trapping sessions were conducted during 2005‐2006 at four sites chosen to capture variable microhabitat conditions within the study site. Analysis of microhabitat preferences showed that A. montensis preferred areas with little forest overstory and denser vegetation cover on and near the ground. Moreover, there was a significant difference in the microhabitat occupied by antibody‐positive vs antibody‐negative rodents, indicating that microhabitats with greater overstory cover may promote transmission and maintenance of hantavirus in A. montensis.     

Low interannual precipitation has a greater negative effect than seedling herbivory on the population dynamics of a short‐lived shrub,Schiedea obovata

Climate projections forecast more extreme interannual climate variability over time, with an increase in the severity and duration of extreme drought and rainfall events. Based on bioclimatic envelope models, it is projected that changing precipitation patterns will drastically alter the spatial distributions and density of plants and be a primary driver of biodiversity loss. However, many other underlying mechanisms can impact plant vital rates (i.e., survival, growth, and reproduction) and population dynamics. In this study, we developed a size‐dependent integral projection model (IPM) to evaluate how interannual precipitation and mollusk herbivory influence the dynamics of a Hawaii endemic short‐lived shrub, Schiedea obovata (Caryophyllaceae). Assessing how wet season precipitation effects population dynamics it critical, as it is the timeframe when most of the foliar growth occurs, plants flower and fruit, and seedlings establish. Temporal variation in wet season precipitation had a greater effect than mollusk herbivory on S. obovata population growth rate , and the impact of interannual precipitation on vital rates shifted across plant ontogeny. Furthermore, wet season precipitation influenced multiple vital rates in contrasting ways and the effect of precipitation on the survival of larger vegetative and reproductively mature individuals contributed the most to variation in the population growth rate. Among all combination of wet season precipitation and herbivory intensities, the only scenario that led to a growing population was when high wet precipitation was associated with low herbivory. Our study highlights the importance of evaluating how abiotic factors and plant–consumer interactions influence an organism across its life cycle to fully understand the underpinning mechanisms that structure its spatial and temporal distribution and abundance. Our results also illustrate that for short‐lived species, like S. obovata, seedling herbivory can have less of an effect on the dynamics of plant populations than decreased interannual precipitation.     

Responses of Dryas octopetala to ITEX environmental manipulations: a synthesis with circumpolar comparisons

We have examined organismic responses of Dryas octopetala to simulated changes in the summer climate at four tundra sites as part of the International Tundra Experiment (ITEX). Our study sites are located in the High Arctic, on Svalbard, Norway, in the Low Arctic at Abisko, Sweden, and at Toolik Lake, Alaska, USA and our temperate alpine site is at Niwot Ridge, Colorado, USA. These sites represent a range of tundra temperature and precipitation regimes, being generally cold and dry in the High Arctic and warmer and wetter at Toolik Lake and Niwot Ridge. Results from our studies indicate organismic attributes such as flowering shoot length varies by 30% between low and high arctic populations and that experimental warming results in significant increases in shoot height at three of four sites. We find that phenological development of Dryas is accelerated under experimentally warmed conditions which corresponds with a lengthening of the growing season in autumn, greater degrees of seed set and a higher likelihood of colonization of bare ground. We also observe that Dryas dominated ecosystems which are exposed to experimental manipulations are capable of exhibiting net carbon sequestration in late autumn, and that Dryas photosynthesis and green leaf biomass is significantly greater under warmer as opposed to ambient temperature conditions. Dryas leaf nitrogen is also significantly lowered under warmer conditions resulting in senescent leaves having a higher C:N ratio than those under ambient conditions. Together these findings indicate that Dryas phenology and carbon flux may be altered to the greatest degree in spring and again in autumn by higher summer temperatures and that simultaneously both positive and negative feedback effects may result from changes in plant and ecosystem performance.