A review of indicators of climate change for use in Ireland

Impact indicators are systems/organisms, the vitality of which alters in response to changes in environmental condition. The indicators assessed in this review fall within the impact category of the driver-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR) framework. Instrumental records have shown unequivocal changes in climatic conditions over the past 30 years at a global level but impact indicators allow these changes to be monitored at a finer resolution. Our main aim was to review sets of indicators of climate change currently used in various countries and to make recommendations for their use in the Irish environment. We review a preliminary set of climate change impact indicators in five sectors: agriculture; plant and animal distribution patterns; phenology; palaeoecology and human health. Currently, the most effective impact indicators of climate change have proved to be phenological observations of tree developmental stages. The strongest factor limiting the use of indicators is the lack of long-term data sets from which a climatic signal can be extracted.     

Late Ordovician–Early Silurian facies development and environmental changes in the Subpolar Urals

The continuous Upper Ashgill–Sheinwoodian carbonate succession in the most eastern Kozhym River area in the Subpolar Urals comprises the Yaptikshor (Rawtheyan), Kamennaya baba (Hirnantian), Ruchej and Manyuku (Llandovery–?Sheinwoodian) formations. The facies of the deep subtidal Yaptikshor Fm. mark an abrupt sea‐level rise following emergence of the Bad’ya reef (Rawtheyan). Carbonate breccias at the base of the Kamennaya baba Fm. correlate with the beginning of the Hirnantian glaciation and change upwards towards the Ordovician–Silurian boundary with the development of light‐grey massive boundstone/packstone shoal deposits. An abrupt change in facies to the Rhuddanian–Aeronian Ruchej Fm. continental slope environment marked the start of a long‐term sea‐level rise. The uppermost Aeronian–?Sheinwoodian is represented by submarine canyon carbonate conglobreccias of the Manyuku Fm. unconformably underlying the Balban’yu reef. The rapid facies changes at the base of the Hirnantian and at the Ordovician–Silurian boundary were of global eustatic origin. In contrast, the abrupt changes in the Rawtheyan and the formation of the Manyuku Fm. conglobreccias were of local or regional origin associated with tectonics. They were followed by the start of a regional transgression (Yaptikshor Fm.) and a global transgression marked by the initiation of the Balban’yu Reef in the Sheinwoodian.     

A sequence stratigraphical model for the Late Ludfordian (Silurian) of Gotland,Sweden: implications for timing between changes in sea level,palaeoecology, and the global carbon cycle

This paper investigates a time interval within the Late Ludfordian (Late Silurian), involving changes in faunal composition (the Lau Event), a major positive carbon isotope excursion (CIE), and contemporaneous sea-level changes in remote palaeo-basins. Based on the Silurian strata of Gotland (Sweden), we integrate sequence stratigraphy, carbon isotope stratigraphy, and platform-scale palaeoecological changes associated with this turbulent time period in Earth history. Three depositional sequences (sequences Nos. 1–3), including two separate periods of forced regression (falling stage systems tracts, FSSTs) are identified from outcrop and drillcore studies. The sequence stratigraphical framework is interpreted to reflect glacio-eustatic sea-level changes. The CIE starts at the onset of the initial FSST (sequence No. 1), just below the last appearance datum of the conodont Polygnathoides siluricus. The values increase through the ensuing lowstand and transgressive systems tracts (LST and TST) of sequence No. 2 and peak in the following highstand systems tract (HST). A second forced regression (FSST of sequence No. 2) took place in the lower Ozarkodina snajdri Zone. δ¹³C data are scarce from these siliciclastic strata, but inferably remain high. The δ¹³C values increase within the LST and earliest TST of sequence No. 3, before a decreasing trend starts within the early TST. δ¹³C values return to pre-excursion levels within the ensuing HST. The CIE is closely associated with an increase in stromatolites (mats and oncoids) across a wide range of depths and sedimentary environments, and correlations to other basins indicate a global increase in cyanobacterial activity. A drastic decline in level-bottom benthic faunas during the FSST of sequence No. 2 is, however, interpreted as a local response to the progradation of a delta complex (the Burgsvik Sandstone). Biological carbonate production replenishes rapidly within the TST of sequence No. 3, succeeding a thin LST dominated by reworked siliciclastics and chemically precipitated carbonates (ooids). The detailed relationship between the CIE and sea-level change presented herein is not fully consistent with previous reports on the CIEs associated with the lower Silurian Ireviken and Mulde events, respectively. Based on our facies analysis and sequence stratigraphical interpretation, two main mechanisms are suggested as responsible for the Late Ludfordian CIE: (1) a change in the riverine C-weathering flux towards the ¹³C end member following glacio-eustatically induced subaerial exposure of carbonate platforms throughout the tropics, and, (2) increased photosynthetic activity by benthic cyanobacteria exaggerating the δ¹³C values of precipitated carbonates.     

A climate response function explaining most of the variation of the forest floor needle mass and the needle decomposition in pine forests across Europe

The forest floor needle mass and the decomposition rates of pine needle litter in a European climate transect were studied in order to estimate the impact of climate change on forest soil carbon sequestration. Eight pine forests preserved from fire were selected along a climatic latitudinal gradient from 40° to 60° N, from Spain and Portugal to Sweden. The forest floor (Oi and Oe layers) was sorted into five categories of increasing decomposition level according to morphological criteria. The needle mass loss in each category was determined using a linear mass density method. The needle decomposition rate was calculated from the needle fall (NF), the mass of each category and its mass loss. For each site, the remaining mass vs. the calculated time was best fitted by an asymptotic model which indicates that the organic matter should be made up of two fractions: a decomposable one and a recalcitrant one. NF was correlated with actual evapotranspiration (AET) whereas the decomposition parameters (decomposition rate of the decomposable fraction, first year mass loss, forest floor needle mass, age of the most-decomposed category) were related to a combined response function to climate (CRF) based on the van’t Hoff law for temperature and the water deficit (DEF) for moisture. Scenarios with temperature increases, without and with DEF increases, were applied to predict forest floor needle mass changes. C would be lost from the forest floor if only temperature increases and this loss would increase from south to north. If more droughts occur, the forest floor would then tend to sequester C according to the level of the DEF and the latitude of the site. For example, a site in Portugal which is presently the most active site of the transect in terms of decomposition because of its present favourable warm Atlantic climate would react with a large range of responses, losing carbon under an unchanged precipitation regime and sequestering up to 3 times its present stock of carbon under drier conditions.Section Editor: C. Neill     

Fine‐scale patterns of species and phylogenetic turnover in a global biodiversity hotspot: Implications for climate change vulnerability

Question: What is the relative importance of environmental and spatial factors for species compositional and phylogenetic turnover? Location: High‐rainfall zone of the Southwest Australian Floristic Region (SWAFR). Methods: Correlates of species compositional turnover were assessed using quadrat‐based floristic data, and establishing relationships with environmental and spatial factors using canonical correspondence analyses and Mantel tests. Between‐quadrat phylogenetic distance measures were computed and examined for correlations with environmental and spatial attributes. Processes structuring pa2t2terns of beta diversity were also evaluated within four broad floristic assemblages defined a priori. Results: Floristic diversity was strongly related to environmental attributes. A low significance of spatial variables on assemblage patterns suggested no evident effect of dispersal limitations. Species compositional turnover was especially high within the swamp and outcrop assemblage. Phylogenetic turnover was closely coupled to species compositional turnover, implying the occurrence of many locally endemic and phylogenetically relict taxa. Beta diversity patterns within assemblages were also significantly correlated with the local environment, and relevant correlates differed between floristic assemblage types. Conclusion: Phylogenetic diversity in the SWAFR high‐rainfall zone is clustered within edaphic microhabitats in a generally subdued landscape. A clustered rather than dispersed distribution of phylogenetic diversity increases the probability of significant plant diversity loss during periods of climate change. Climate change susceptibility of the region's flora is accordingly estimated to be high. We highlight the conservation significance of swamp and outcrops that are characterized by distinct hydrological properties and may provide refugial habitat for plant diversity during periods of moderate climate change.     

A model to predict and assess the impacts of hydrologic changes on terrestrial ecosystems in The Netherlands,and its use in a climate scenario

Current water management policy in The Netherlands aims to serve a multitude of land use functions, such as agriculture, industry, shipping, and drinking water supply. To attune this policy to the diversity of functions, computer models are used to predict the consequences of various policy options as a part of PAWN: the government's Policy Analysis of Water management for The Netherlands.Nature conservation and development is a relatively new aspect of water management policy. This article describes the PAWN model DEMNAT, which is designed to predict the impact of hydrologic changes on terrestrial ecosystems in The Netherlands. The main components of the model are explained and the predicted effects of an assumed climatic change are discussed.     

A spatially interactive simulation of climate change, harvesting, wind, and tree species migration and projected changes to forest composition and biomass in northern Wisconsin, USA

In the coming century, forecast climate changes caused by increasing greenhouse gases may produce dramatic shifts in tree species distributions and the rates at which individual tree species sequester carbon or release carbon back to the atmosphere. The species composition and carbon storage capacity of northern Wisconsin (USA) forests are expected to change significantly as a result. Projected temperature changes are relatively large (up to a 5.8°C increase in mean annual temperature) and these forests encompass a broad ecotone that may be particularly sensitive to climate change. Our objective was to estimate the combined effects of climate change, common disturbances, and species migrations on regional forests using spatially interactive simulations. Multiple scenarios were simulated for 200 years to estimate aboveground live biomass and tree species composition. We used a spatially interactive forest landscape model (LANDIS‐II) that includes individual tree species, biomass accumulation and decomposition, windthrow, harvesting, and seed dispersal. We used data from two global circulation models, the Hadley Climate Centre (version 2) and the Canadian Climate Center (version 1) to generate transient growth and decomposition parameters for 23 species. The two climate change scenarios were compared with a control scenario of continuing current climate conditions. The results demonstrate how important spatially interactive processes will affect the aboveground live biomass and species composition of northern Wisconsin forests. Forest composition, including species richness, is strongly affected by harvesting, windthrow, and climate change, although five northern species (Abies balsamea, Betula papyrifera, Picea glauca, Pinus banksiana, P. resinosa) are lost in both climate scenarios regardless of disturbance scenario. Changes in aboveground live biomass over time are nonlinear and vary among ecoregions. Aboveground live biomass will be significantly reduced because of species dispersal and migration limitations. The expected shift towards southern oaks and hickory is delayed because of seed dispersal limitations.     

A conserved dimer and global conformational changes in the structure of apo-PknE Ser/Thr protein kinase from Mycobacterium tuberculosis

The "eukaryotic-like" receptor Ser/Thr protein kinases (STPKs) are candidates for the sensors that mediate environmental adaptations of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb). To define the mechanisms of regulation and substrate recognition, we determined the crystal structure of the ligand-free, activated kinase domain (KD) of the Mtb STPK, PknE. Remarkably, the PknE KD formed a dimer similar to that first observed in the structure of the ATPgammaS complex of the Mtb paralog, PknB. This structural similarity, which occurs despite little sequence conservation between the PknB and PknE dimer interfaces, supports the idea that dimerization regulates the Mtb receptor STPKs. Insertion of the DFG motif into the ATP-binding site and other conformational differences compared the ATPgammaS:PknB complex suggest that apo-PknE is not pre-organized to bind nucleotides. This structure may represent an inactive conformation stabilized by dimerization or, alternatively, an active conformation that reveals shifts that mediate nucleotide exchange and order substrate binding.     

风沙过渡区土地利用动态与生态效应变化分析--以榆阳区为例

以榆阳区1988～2003年土地数据为依据,在分析研究区土地利用的数量和结构变化特点的基础上,运用生态价值估算方法与模式,结合榆阳区具体情况对估算参数进行修正;对研究区研究时段内各年度生态系统服务功能经济价值进行了估算;并以1988年为基准测算了土地利用类型的数量和结构变化所引起的生态系统服务功能经济价值变化情况,分析了其变化的时段特点及变化原因,定量地揭示了生态脆弱区环境与经济发展的关系。结果表明,1988～2003年,榆阳区土地利用变化所产生的环境响应总体来说是积极的,生态系统服务功能经济价值年度总量在波动中提高;营造防护林、退耕还林及农用地内部结构调整政策的实施实现了经济和环境双赢的预期效果。