Cost effectiveness of incremental programmes for lowering serum cholesterol concentration: is individual intervention worth while?

OBJECTIVE--To evaluate the relative cost effectiveness of various cholesterol lowering programmes. DESIGN--Retrospective analysis. SETTING--Norwegian cholesterol lowering programme in Norwegian male population aged 40-49 (n = 200,000), whose interventions comprise a population based promotion of healthier eating habits, dietary treatment (subjects with serum cholesterol concentration 6.0-7.9 mmol/l), and dietary and drug treatment combined (serum cholesterol concentration greater than or equal to 8.0 mmol/l). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE--Marginal cost effectiveness ratios--that is, the ratio of net treatment costs (cost of treatment minus savings in treatment costs for coronary heart disease) to life years gained and to quality of life years (QALYs) saved. RESULTS--The cost per life year gained over 20 years of a population based strategy was projected to be 12 pounds. For an individual strategy based on dietary treatment the cost was about 12,400 pounds per life year gained and 111,600 pounds if drugs were added for 50% of the subjects with serum cholesterol concentrations greater than or equal to 8.0 mmol/l. CONCLUSIONS--The results underline the importance of marginal cost effectiveness analyses for incremental programmes of health care. The calculations of QALYs, though speculative, indicate that individual intervention should be implemented cautiously and within more selected groups than currently recommended. Drugs should be reserved for subjects with genetic hypercholesterolaemia or who are otherwise at very high risk of arteriosclerotic disease.     

Strategies for reducing coronary risk factors in primary care: which is most cost effective?

OBJECTIVE--To examine the relative cost effectiveness of a range of screening and intervention strategies for preventing coronary heart disease in primary care. SUBJECTS--7840 patients aged 35-64 years who were participants in a trial of modifying coronary heart disease risk factors in primary care. DESIGN--Effectiveness of interventions assumed and the potential years of life gained estimated from a risk equation calculated from Framingham study data. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE--The cost per year of life gained. RESULTS--The most cost effective strategy was minimal screening of blood pressure and personal history of vascular disease, which cost 310 pounds-930 pounds per year of life gained for men and 1100 pounds-3460 pounds for women excluding treatment of raised blood pressure. The extra cost per life year gained by adding smoking history to the screening was 400 pounds-6300 pounds in men. All strategies were more cost effective in men than in women and more cost effective in older age groups. Lipid lowering drugs accounted for at least 70% of the estimated costs of all strategies. Cost effectiveness was greatest when drug treatment was limited to those with cholesterol concentrations above 9.5 mmol/l. CONCLUSIONS--Universal screening and intervention strategies are an inefficient approach to reducing the coronary heart disease burden. A basic strategy for screening and intervention, targeted at older men with raised blood pressure and limiting the use of cholesterol lowering drugs to those with very high cholesterol concentrations would be most cost effective.     

Does plasma cholesterol concentration predict mortality from coronary heart disease in elderly people? 18 year follow up in Whitehall study.

OBJECTIVE--To explore the extent to which the relation between plasma cholesterol concentration and risk of death from coronary heart disease in men persists into old age. DESIGN--18 year follow up of male Whitehall civil servants. Plasma cholesterol concentrations and other risk factors were determined at first examination in 1967-9 when they were aged 40-69. Death of men up to 31 January 1987 was recorded. SUBJECTS--18,296 male civil servants, 4155 of whom died during follow up. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Cause and age of death. Cholesterol concentration in 1967-9 and number of years elapsed between testing and death. RESULTS--1676 men died of coronary heart disease. The mean cholesterol concentration in these men was 0.32 mmol/l higher than that in all other men (95% confidence interval 0.26 to 0.37 mmol/l). This difference in cholesterol concentrations fell 0.15 mmol/l with every 10 years'' increase in age at screening. The risk of raised cholesterol concentration fell with age at death. Compared with other men cholesterol concentration in those who died of coronary heart disease was 0.44 mmol/l higher in those who died aged less than 60 and 0.26 mmol/l higher in those aged 60-79 (p = 0.03). For a given age at death the longer the gap between cholesterol measurement and death the more predictive the cholesterol concentration, both for coronary heart disease and all cause mortality (trend test p = 0.06 and 0.03 respectively). CONCLUSION--Reducing plasma cholesterol concentrations in middle age may influence the risk of death from coronary heart disease in old age.     

What can be concluded from the Oxcheck and British family heart studies: commentary on cost effectiveness analyses.

OBJECTIVES--To provide a commentary on the economic evaluations of the Oxcheck and British family heart studies: direct comparison of their relative effectiveness and cost effectiveness; comparisons with other interventions; and consideration of problems encountered. DESIGN--Modelling from cost and effectiveness data to estimate of cost per life year gained. SUBJECTS--Middle aged men and women. INTERVENTIONS--Screening for cardiovascular risk factors followed by appropriate lifestyle advice and drug intervention in general practice, and other primary coronary risk management strategies. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Life years gained; cost per life year gained. RESULTS--Depending on the assumed duration of risk reduction, the programme cost per discounted life year gained ranged from 34,800 pounds for a 1 year duration to 1500 pounds for 20 years for the British family heart study and from 29,300 pounds to 900 pounds for Oxcheck. These figures exclude broader net clinical and cost effects and longer term clinical and cost effects other than coronary mortality. CONCLUSIONS--Despite differences in underlying methods, the estimates in the two economic analyses of the studies can be directly compared. Neither study was large enough to provide precise estimates of the overall net cost. Modelling to cost per life year gained provides more readily interpretable measures. These estimates emphasise the importance of the relatively weak evidence on duration effect. Only if the effect lasts at least five years is the Oxcheck programme likely to be cost effective. The effect must last for about 10 years to justify the extra cost associated with the British family heart study.     

Costs and cost effectiveness of cardiovascular screening and intervention: the British family heart study.

OBJECTIVE--To measure costs and cost effectiveness of the British family heart study cardiovascular screening and intervention programme. DESIGN--Cost effectiveness analysis of randomised controlled trial. Clinical and resource use data taken from trial and unit cost data from external estimates. SETTING--13 general practices across Britain. SUBJECTS--4185 men aged 40-59 and their 2827 partners. INTERVENTION--Nurse led programme using a family centered approach, with follow up according to degree of risk. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Cost of the programme it self; overall short term cost to NHS; cost per 1% reduction in coronary risk at one year. RESULTS--Estimated cost of putting the programme into practice for one year was 63 pounds per person (95% confidence interval 60 pounds to 65 pounds). The overall short term cost to the health service was 77 pounds per man (29 pounds to 124 pounds) but only 13 pounds per woman (-48 pounds to 74 pounds), owing to differences in utilisation of other health service resources. The cost per 1% reduction in risk was 5.08 pounds per man (5.92 pounds including broader health service costs) and 5.78 pounds per woman (1.28 pounds taking into account wider health service savings). CONCLUSIONS--The direct cost of the programme to a four partner practice of 7500 patients would be approximately 58,000 pounds. Annually, 8300 pounds would currently be paid to a practice of this size working to the maximum target on the health promotion bands, plus any additional reimbursement of practice staff salaries for which the practice qualified. The broader short term costs to the NHS may augment these costs for men but offset them considerably for women.     

How can we best prolong life? Benefits of coronary risk factor reduction in non-diabetic and diabetic subjects.

OBJECTIVE--To compare the theoretical benefits of different approaches to reduce risk factors for coronary heart disease in subjects at risk. DESIGN--The results of findings from meta-analyses of intervention studies on cause specific mortality and of observational studies on smokers and ex-smokers were applied to observational data on 10 year cause specific mortality derived from the multiple risk factor intervention trial. Lifetable analyses were used to estimate gains in life expectancy. SUBJECTS--Diabetic and non-diabetic men initially 35-57 years of age. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--10 year mortality from coronary heart disease, 10 year total mortality, man years of intervention to prevent one death and one death from coronary heart disease, gain in life expectancy, and drug costs per year of additional life in diabetic and non-diabetic men of 45. RESULTS--In non-diabetic men a 10 year mortality from coronary heart disease of 14.4 per 1000 would be reduced by a mean of 0.58, 0.82, 2.64, and 2.74 per 1000 by antihypertensive treatment, lowering cholesterol concentration, taking aspirin, and stopping smoking respectively; a 10 year total mortality of 44.1 per 1000 would fall by a mean of 1.06, 5.16, and 8.65 per 1000 with antihypertensive and aspirin treatment and stopping smoking respectively and increased by a mean of 0.07 per 1000 with the lowering of cholesterol concentration. In diabetic men the reductions in mortality from coronary heart disease would be between three and five times greater, and total mortality would show mean reductions of 5.81, 0.56, 16.17, and 20.84 per 1000 respectively, with all interventions of significant benefit except the lowering of cholesterol concentration. Between 2400 and 3800 man years of pharmacological intervention were calculated as being necessary to prevent one death from coronary heart disease in a non-diabetic man, and between 800 and 1200 man years in a diabetic man. The loss of life expectancy associated with smoking and hypertension is greater than that accruing from hypercholesterolaemia, but stopping smoking would prolong life by a mean of around four years in a 45 year old non-diabetic man and three years in a diabetic man, whereas aspirin and antihypertensive treatment would provide approximately one year of additional life expectancy in both categories. CONCLUSIONS--Studies to date have shown little impact of drugs that lower cholesterol concentration and blood pressure on either coronary heart disease or total mortality. Although new treatments for hypercholesterolaemia and hypertension might help prevent coronary heart disease, other approaches to reduce the burden of premature death are required.     

Risk factors and 25 year risk of coronary heart disease in a male population with a high incidence of the disease: the Finnish cohorts of the seven countries study.

OBJECTIVE--To assess the efficacy of high serum cholesterol concentration, raised blood pressure, and smoking as predictors of coronary heart disease. DESIGN--Prospective cohort study of middle aged men conducted over 25 years. SETTING--Finish components of an ongoing international study (seven countries study). PARTICIPANTS--1520 Men who at age 40-59 in 1959 were free of clinically evident heart disease. INTERVENTIONS--At each follow up visit a detailed medical examination including resting electrocardiography was performed, blood pressure and serum total cholesterol concentration were measured, and smoking was assessed. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS--825 Deaths (54% of participants) occurred during follow up, of which 335 were due to coronary heart disease. The hazard ratio for death from coronary heart disease with respect to risk factors at entry were: for serum cholesterol concentrations above 8.4 mmol/l v below 5.2 mmol/l, 2.68 (95% confidence interval 1.62 to 4.42); for systolic blood pressure in the highest quintile v that in the lowest quintile, 2.46 (1.72 to 3.50); and for smoking 10 or more cigarettes daily v never smoking, 1.95 (1.36 to 2.79). The hazard ratios with respect to cholesterol concentrations and blood pressure remained constant during follow up but the ratio with respect to smoking diminished, mainly owing to men giving up the habit. The estimated conditional probability of a 50 year old man dying of coronary heart disease in the next 25 years ranged from 12% among those with the most favourable risk factor profile to 75% among those with the least favourable profile. CONCLUSIONS--High risk factor levels (as determined in this study) in middle aged men may greatly increase the absolute probability of death from coronary heart disease when the period of study is relevant to the human life span.     

Costs and cost effectiveness of health checks conducted by nurses in primary care: the Oxcheck study.

OBJECTIVE--To measure the costs and cost effectiveness of the Oxcheck cardiovascular risk factor screening and intervention programme. DESIGN--Cost effectiveness analysis of a randomised controlled trial using clinical and economic data taken from the trial. SETTING--Five general practices in Luton and Dunstable, England. SUBJECTS--2205 patients who attended a health check in 1989-90 and were scheduled for re-examination in 1992-3 (intervention group); 1916 patients who attended their initial health check in 1992-3 (control group). Participants were men and women aged 35-64 years. INTERVENTION--Health check conducted by nurse, with health education and follow up according to degree of risk. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Cost of health check programme; cost per 1% reduction in coronary risk. RESULTS--Health check and follow up cost 29.27 pounds per patient. Estimated programme cost per 1% reduction in coronary risk per participant was between 1.46 pounds and 2.25 pounds; it was nearly twice as much for men as women. CONCLUSIONS--The cost to the practice of implementing Oxcheck-style health checks in an average sized practice of 7500 patients would be 47,000 pounds, a proportion of which could be paid for through staff pay reimbursements and Band Three health promotion target payments. This study highlights the considerable difficulties faced when calculating the costs and benefits of a health promotion programme. Economic evaluations should be integrated into the protocols of randomised controlled trials to enable judgments to be made on the relative cost effectiveness of different prevention strategies.     

Impact of cardiovascular risk factors on coronary heart disease and mortality among middle aged diabetic men: a general population study.

OBJECTIVE--To investigate the effect of cardiovascular risk factors on coronary heart disease and all cause mortality in middle aged diabetic men. DESIGN--Prospective population study based on data collected from second screening (from 1974 to 1977) in the multifactor primary prevention trial and follow up until March 1983. SETTING--Gothenburg, Sweden. SUBJECTS--6897 Men aged 51 to 59, of whom 232 were self reported diabetics and 6665 were non-diabetic; none had a history of myocardial infarction. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Incidences of coronary heart disease and mortality from all causes. RESULTS--Diabetic men with a serum cholesterol concentration greater than 7.3 mmol/l had a significantly higher incidence of coronary heart disease during follow up than those with a concentration less than or equal to 5.5 mmol/l (28.3% v 5.4%; p = 0.020); corresponding figures for non-diabetic men were 9.4% and 2.4% respectively. In multivariate logistic regression analyses serum cholesterol concentration and smoking habit were independent predictors of coronary heart disease (odds ratio serum cholesterol concentration 6.1 (95% confidence interval 2.1 to 17.6) current smoking 2.9 (1.1 to 7.5)) and of all cause mortality (3.2 (1.3 to 7.9), 3.0 (1.4 to 6.7) respectively) in diabetic men whereas systolic blood pressure, body mass index, family history, marital state, and alcohol abuse were not. Low occupational class was an independent predictor of mortality (2.4 (1.01 to 5.5)), but not of coronary heart disease, in diabetic men. CONCLUSIONS--Middle aged diabetic men with hypercholesterolaemia are at very high risk of developing coronary heart disease and of dying prematurely. Lowering serum cholesterol concentration in such subjects seems to be warranted.     

Changes in cardiorespiratory fitness and coronary heart disease risk factors following 24 wk of moderate- or high-intensity exercise of equal energy cost.

This study was designed to investigate the effect of exercise intensity on cardiorespiratory fitness and coronary heart disease risk factors. Maximum oxygen consumption (Vo(2 max)), lipid, lipoprotein, and fibrinogen concentrations were measured in 64 previously sedentary men before random allocation to a nonexercise control group, a moderate-intensity exercise group (three 400-kcal sessions per week at 60% of Vo(2 max)), or a high-intensity exercise group (three 400-kcal sessions per week at 80% of Vo(2 max)). Subjects were instructed to maintain their normal dietary habits, and training heart rates were represcribed after monthly fitness tests. Forty-two men finished the study. After 24 wk, Vo(2 max) increased by 0.38 +/- 0.14 l/min in the moderate-intensity group and by 0.55 +/- 0.27 l/min in the high-intensity group. Repeated-measures analysis of variance identified a significant interaction between monthly Vo(2 max) score and exercise group (F = 3.37, P < 0.05), indicating that Vo(2 max) responded differently to moderate- and high-intensity exercise. Trend analysis showed that total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and fibrinogen concentrations changed favorably across control, moderate-intensity, and high-intensity groups. However, significant changes in total cholesterol (-0.55 +/- 0.81 mmol/l), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (-0.52 +/- 0.80 mmol/l), and non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (-0.54 +/- 0.86 mmol/l) were only observed in the high-intensity group (all P < 0.05 vs. controls). These data suggest that high-intensity training is more effective in improving cardiorespiratory fitness than moderate-intensity training of equal energy cost. These data also suggest that changes in coronary heart disease risk factors are influenced by exercise intensity.     

Identification and treatment of risk factors for coronary heart disease in general practice: a possible screening model

A screening programme for the identification of risk factors for coronary heart disease in all patients aged 25-55 years in a general practice population was studied.The identification of risk factors included measurement of obesity, blood pressure, hypercholesterolaemia, and urinalysis, together with questions about family history, cigarette smoking, alcohol intake, and lifestyle. The patients with identified risk factors were invited to attend a lifestyle intervention clinic organised by the practice nurses and run by the health visitors, with the help of the local authority dietitian. Of 2646 (62%) patients who attended for screening, 78 (64%) of the 121 shown to have a high cholesterol concentration experienced a drop in cholesterol concentration. The mean fall in cholesterol concentration in the 78 patients who showed a positive response to intervention was 1·1 mmol/l.The study was intended as a possible flexible model for screening for coronary heart disease in general practice that could be complemented rather than replaced by opportunistic screening. The issues of organisation, cost, manpower, non-attendance, and effectiveness in a busy general practice environment are discussed.     

Lipid concentrations and the use of lipid lowering drugs: evidence from a national cross sectional survey

ObjectiveTo evaluate the prevalence of the use of lipid lowering agents and its relation to blood lipid concentrations in English adults.DesignCross sectional survey.SettingEngland, 1998.ParticipantsNationally representative sample of 13 586 adults (aged ⩾16 years) living in non-institutional households.Results Mean total cholesterol concentrations were 5.47 (SE 0.02) mmol/l in men and 5.59 (0.02) mmol/l in women. Mean HDL cholesterol concentrations were 1.28 (0.01) mmol/l in men and 1.55 (0.01) mmol/l in women. Overall, of 10 569 adults who had a valid cholesterol measurement taken 7133 (67.5%; 95% confidence interval 66.5% to 68.4%) had a total cholesterol concentration ⩾5 mmol/l, 2804 (26.5%; 25.7% to 27.4%) had a ratio of total cholesterol to HDL cholesterol ⩾5 mmol/l, and 237 (2.2%; 1.9% to 2.5%) reported taking lipid lowering drugs. Of 117 participants with no history of cardiovascular disease but whose estimated 10 year risk of coronary heart disease was ⩾30% and whose total cholesterol concentration was ⩾5 mmol/l, four (3%) were taking lipid lowering drugs. Of 385 adults aged 16-75 with a history of coronary heart disease and eligible for lipid lowering treatment, 114 (30%; 25% to 34%) were taking lipid lowering drugs, of whom only 50 (44%; 35% to 53%) had a total cholesterol concentration <5 mmol/l.ConclusionsDespite the high prevalence of dyslipidaemia in English adults, the proportion of adults taking lipid lowering drugs in 1998 was only 2.2%. Rates of treatment were low among high risk patients eligible for primary prevention with lipid lowering drugs, and less than one third of patients with established cardiovascular disease received such treatment.     

Alcohol consumption,serum low density lipoprotein cholesterol concentration,and risk of ischaemic heart disease: six year follow up in the Copenhagen male study.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the interplay between use of alcohol, concentration of low density lipoprotein cholesterol, and risk of ischaemic heart disease. DESIGN: Prospective study with controlling for several relevant confounders, including concentrations of other lipid fractions. SETTING: Copenhagen male study, Denmark. SUBJECTS: 2826 men aged 53-74 years without overt ischaemic heart disease. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Incidence of ischaemic heart disease during a six year follow up period. RESULTS: 172 men (6.1%) had a first ischaemic heart disease event. There was an overall inverse association between alcohol intake and risk of ischaemic heart disease. The association was highly dependent on concentration of low density lipoprotein cholesterol. In men with a high concentration (> or = 5.25 mmol/l) cumulative incidence rates of ischaemic heart disease were 16.4% for abstainers, 8.7% for those who drank 1-21 beverages a week, and 4.4% for those who drank 22 or more beverages a week. With abstainers as reference and after adjustment for confounders, corresponding relative risks (95% confidence interval) were 0.4 (0.2 to 1.0; P<0.05) and 0.2 (0.1 to 0.8; P<0.01). In men with a concentration <3.63 mmol/l use of alcohol was not associated with risk. The attributable risk (95% confidence interval) of ischaemic heart disease among men with concentrations > or = 3.63 mmol/l who abstained from drinking alcohol was 43% (10% to 64%). CONCLUSIONS: In middle aged and elderly men the inverse association between alcohol consumption and risk of ischaemic heart disease is highly dependent on the concentration of low density lipoprotein cholesterol. These results support the suggestion that use of alcohol may in part explain the French paradox.     

Mortality from coronary heart disease and stroke in relation to degree of glycaemia: the Whitehall study.

In the Whitehall study of 18 403 male civil servants aged 40-64 years the 10 year mortality rates from coronary heart disease and stroke showed a non-linear relation to two hour blood glucose values, with a significantly increased risk for glucose intolerant subjects with concentrations above the 95th centile point (5.4-11.0 mmol/l; 96-199 mg/100 ml) and for diabetics (blood glucose greater than or equal to 11.1 mmol/l; greater than or equal to 200 mg/100 ml). Multiple logistic analysis showed that between one half and three quarters of the relative risks for deaths from coronary heart disease and stroke were "unexplained" by between group differences in risk factors such as age, blood pressure, obesity, smoking, cholesterol concentration, and electrocardiographic abnormalities. Within the glucose intolerant and diabetic groups the risk factors most strongly related to subsequent death from coronary heart disease were age and blood pressure, with less consistent relations for smoking, cholesterol concentration, and obesity. This study confirms the importance of hypertension as a cardiovascular risk factor in groups with glucose intolerance and diabetes, and this may have important preventive implications.     

Total cholesterol,low density lipoprotein cholesterol,and high density lipoprotein cholesterol and coronary heart disease in Scotland.

OBJECTIVE--To investigate long term changes in total cholesterol, high density lipoprotein cholesterol, and low density lipoprotein cholesterol concentrations and in measures of other risk factors for coronary heart disease and to assess their importance for the development of coronary heart disease in Scottish men. DESIGN--Longitudinal study entailing follow up in 1988-9 of men investigated during a study in 1976. SETTING--Edinburgh, Scotland. SUBJECTS--107 men from Edinburgh who had taken part in a comparative study of risk factors for heart disease with Swedish men in 1976 when aged 40. INTERVENTION--The men were invited to attend a follow up clinic in 1988-9 for measurement of cholesterol concentrations and other risk factor measurements. Eighty three attended and 24 refused to or could not attend. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Changes in total cholesterol, high density lipoprotein cholesterol, and low density lipoprotein cholesterol concentrations, body weight, weight to height index, prevalence of smoking, and alcohol intake; number of coronary artery disease events. RESULTS--Mean serum total cholesterol concentration increased over the 12 years mainly due to an increase in the low density lipoprotein cholesterol fraction (from 3.53 (SD 0.09) to 4.56 (0.11) mmol/l) despite a reduction in high density lipoprotein cholesterol concentration. Body weight and weight to height index increased. Fewer men smoked more than 15 cigarettes/day in 1988-9 than in 1976. Blood pressure remained stable and fasting triglyceride concentrations did not change. The frequency of corneal arcus doubled. Alcohol consumption decreased significantly. Eleven men developed clinical coronary heart disease. High low density lipoprotein and low high density lipoprotein cholesterol concentrations in 1976, but not total cholesterol concentration, significantly predicted coronary heart disease (p = 0.05). Almost all of the men who developed coronary heart disease were smokers (91% v 53%, p less than 0.05). CONCLUSION--Over 12 years the lipid profile deteriorated significantly in this healthy cohort of young men. Smoking, a low high density lipoprotein concentration and a raised low density lipoprotein concentration were all associated with coronary heart disease in middle aged Scottish men, whereas there was no association for total cholesterol concentration. The findings have implications for screening programmes.     

Plasma cholesterol,coronary heart disease,and cancer in the Renfrew and Paisley survey.

The relation between plasma cholesterol concentration and mortality from coronary heart disease, incidence of and mortality from cancer, and all cause mortality was studied in a general population aged 45-64 living in the west of Scotland. Seven thousand men (yielding 653 deaths from coronary heart disease, 630 new cases of cancer, and 463 deaths from cancer) and 8262 women (322 deaths from coronary heart disease, 554 new cases of cancer, and 395 deaths from cancer) were examined initially in 1972-6 and followed up for an average of 12 years. All cause mortality was not related to plasma cholesterol concentration. This was largely a consequence of a positive relation between cholesterol values and mortality from coronary heart disease being balanced by inverse relations between cholesterol and cancer and between cholesterol and other causes of death. These changes were highly significant for coronary heart disease and cancer in men and significant for coronary heart disease and other causes of death in women. The inverse association between cholesterol concentration and cancer in men was strongest for lung cancer, was not merely a function of the age at which a subject died, was present for the incidence of cancer as well as mortality from cancer, and persisted when new cases or deaths occurring within the first four years of follow up were excluded from the analysis.     

A cost effective,community based heart health promotion project in England: prospective comparative study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether a community based coronary heart disease health promotion project, undertaken over four years, was associated with changes in the prevalence in adults of lifestyle risk factors known to affect the development of coronary heart disease, and to estimate whether such an approach was cost effective. DESIGN: Prospective, comparative study of the effects of a health promotion intervention on coronary heart disease lifestyle risk factors, assessed by postal questionnaire sent to a randomly chosen sample, both at baseline and after four years. SUBJECTS: Intervention and control populations of adults aged 18-64 in Rotherham, both from areas with a high incidence of coronary heart disease and similar socioeconomic composition. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Changes in prevalence of lifestyle risk factors between the control and intervention communities from 1991 to 1995. The effect of the intervention on certain lifestyle behaviours was evaluated using multiple logistic regression to model the proportion with a particular behaviour in the study communities as a function of age (18-40 or 41-64 years), sex, the year of observation (1991 or 1995), and area (intervention of control). RESULTS: 6.9% fewer people smoked and 8.7% more drank low fat milk in the intervention area, but no other statistically significant changes between the areas were detected. The estimated cost per life year gained was pounds 31. CONCLUSIONS: It is possible to have a cost effective impact on coronary heart disease lifestyle risk factors in a population of adults over four years using only modest resources.     

Serum high density lipoprotein cholesterol,alcohol, and coronary mortality in male smokers.

OBJECTIVE--To determine whether the increase in mortality from coronary heart disease with high concentration (> 1.75 mmol/l) of high density lipoprotein cholesterol could be due to alcohol intake. DESIGN--Cohort study. SETTING--Placebo group of the alpha tocopherol, beta carotene cancer prevention (ATBC) study of south western population in Finland. PARTICIPANTS--7052 male smokers aged 50-69 years enrolled to the ATBC study in the 1980s. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--The relative and absolute rates adjusted for risk factors for clinically or pathologically verified deaths from coronary heart disease for different concentrations of high density lipoprotein cholesterol with and without stratification for alcohol intake. Similar rates were also calculated for different alcohol consumption groups. RESULTS--During the average follow up period of 6.7 years 258 men died from verified coronary heart disease. Coronary death rate steadily decreased with increasing concentration of high density lipoprotein cholesterol until a high concentration. An increase in the rate was observed above 1.75 mmol/l. This increase occurred among those who reported alcohol intake. Mortality was associated with alcohol intake in a J shaped dose response, and those who reported consuming more than five drinks a day (heavy drinkers) had the highest death rate. Mortality was higher in heavy drinkers than in non-drinkers or light or moderate drinkers in all high density lipoprotein categories from 0.91 mmol/l upward. CONCLUSIONS--Mortality from coronary heart disease increases at concentrations of high density lipoprotein cholesterol over 1.75 mmol/l. The mortality was highest among heavy drinkers, but an increase was found among light drinkers also.     

Prescribing selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors as strategy for prevention of suicide.

OBJECTIVE--To evaluate a policy to reduce the incidence of suicide by means of changing the prescribing of antidepressants from the older tricyclic antidepressants to the routine first line use of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors or newer tricyclic and related antidepressants. DESIGN--Cost effectiveness analysis with sensitivity analyses using observational data on costs, volume of prescribing, deaths, and toxicity. SETTING--United Kingdom primary care. INTERVENTIONS--Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors or newer tricyclic and related antidepressants compared with the use of older tricyclics. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Cost per life saved and cost per life year saved. RESULTS--The potential number of lives which may be saved from a switch to the routine first line use of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors is between 300 and 450 each year. The cost per life year gained ranges from 19,000 pounds to 173,000 pounds, depending on the assumptions used. The cost per life year gained through the use of the newer tricyclic and related antidepressants is considerably lower. CONCLUSIONS--The cost per life year gained through avoiding suicides by the routine first line use of serotonin reuptake inhibitors is likely to be high. The new tricyclics and related drugs are of similar toxicity to the serotonin reuptake inhibitors but are considerably cheaper and so are most cost effective for this purpose. Further research is required on such prescribing. Because of the great uncertainties the shift to considerably more expensive options must be further investigated.     

Non-fasting serum triglyceride concentration and mortality from coronary heart disease and any cause in middle aged Norwegian women.

OBJECTIVE--To study the association between non-fasting serum triglyceride concentrations and mortality in women from coronary and cardiovascular disease and all causes. DESIGN--Follow up by ambulatory teams of men and women who underwent cardiovascular screening for a mean of 14.6 years. SETTING--National health screening service in Norway. SUBJECTS--25,058 men and 24,535 women aged 35-49 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE--Predictive value of non-fasting serum triglyceride concentrations. RESULTS--At initial screening total serum cholesterol concentration, serum triglyceride concentration, blood pressure, height, and weight were measured, and self reported information about smoking habits, physical activity, and time since last meal were recorded. During subsequent follow up 108 women died from coronary heart disease, 238 from cardiovascular diseases, and 931 from all causes. In women mortality increased steadily with increasing triglyceride concentration for all three causes of death. With the proportional hazards model and adjustment for age, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol concentration, time since last meal, and number of cigarettes a day the relative risk between triglyceride concentration > or = 3.5 mmol/l and < 1.5 mmol/l was 4.7 (95% confidence interval 2.5 to 8.9) for deaths from coronary heart disease, 3.0 (1.9 to 4.8) for deaths from cardiovascular disease, 2.3 (1.8 to 2.9) for total deaths in all women. CONCLUSIONS--A raised non-fasting concentration of triglycerides is an independent risk factor for mortality from coronary heart disease, cardiovascular disease, and any cause mortality among middle aged Norwegian women in contrast to what is seen in men.