一种改进的中国水资源空间网格化方法

为揭示中国水资源的时空分布格局,引入降水量、干燥度、蒸散发、坡度、植被覆盖度、集水区等6个因素,结合分区权重赋值法,提出了一种改进的对中国水资源空间分配模型。结果表明:基于二级流域的改进水资源空间分配模型对我国具有较高的适用性,其中在三级流域和省级行政单元上的空间分配总体误差分别为7.89%和7.25%。相比黄河流域、淮河流域和西北诸河流域,长江流域、松花江流域和东南诸河流域的水资源空间分配精度更优,其原因在于该区域的水资源空间分布受自然因素(降水量、蒸散发等)影响更为显著。中国水资源空间分布从西北到东南呈增长趋势,这与降水的空间格局基本吻合。南方诸河流域的水资源量主要来源于降水,而冰川融水则是西北诸河流域及多数内陆河流域的主要水源。水资源与国内生产总值(GDP)密度之间的关系随城市规模和地理位置发生变化。这些可为区域水资源管理提供科学依据和数据依据。     

洞庭湖流域生态安全状态变化及其驱动力分析

通过构建由状态子系统、压力子系统和响应子系统组成的洞庭湖流域生态安全评价系统,重点研究了该流域的生态安全变化趋势,并采用因子分析方法探究其驱动力。结果表明,1949年以来,流域生态安全变化表现出如下特征:系统状态指数明显下降,波动性和阶段性显著;系统压力指数1990年后呈下降趋势;系统响应指数一直呈增长趋势;生态安全度自1990年以来开始稳步上升。因子分析表明,流域生态风险是自然和人为因素叠加的结果,农民人均收入增加、农业人口占总人口比例减少、单位面积土地产值和单位土地面积生态建设投入增加,是促进流域生态安全度提高的决定性因素。同时,本文提出了提高流域生态安全度的相关对策。     

鄱阳湖流域土地利用生态风险格局

以鄱阳湖流域土地利用数据为基础,定量分析2005年以来鄱阳湖流域土地利用变化特征;借助空间自相关、地统计分析等方法,揭示了鄱阳湖流域土地利用变化下生态风险时空演变特征。结果表明:2005—2013年,鄱阳湖流域土地利用转移非农化趋势明显;土地利用生态风险呈小幅上升趋势,在空间分布上具有显著相关性,生态风险"北热南冷"空间分异及等级扩散特征明显;依据空间差值结果可将研究区划分为低生态风险区(ERI0.15)、较低生态风险区(0.15≤ERI0.25)、中等生态风险区(0.25≤ERI0.35)、较高生态风险区(0.35≤ERI0.45)、高生态风险区(ERI≥0.45)5类;高风险区域主要分布在滨湖区、南昌、九江及赣中部分地区。生态风险等级分布与地形存在显著相关性,随着生态风险等级提高,分布区域表现出明显的地形指向性。以土地利用结构对生态风险进行表征,尝试从宏观上把握大尺度区域生态安全格局,为鄱阳湖流域土地利用格局优化提供了相关借鉴及建议。     

南亚热带常绿阔叶林树木多样性与生物量和生产力的关联及其影响因素

生物多样性和生态系统功能的关系直接或间接地影响着生产力, 是生态学研究的关键问题。本研究旨在定量探讨亚热带自然林演替后期森林生态系统树木多样性与生物量或生产力的关系。本研究基于中国南亚热带长期永久性样地的群落调查数据以及地形和土壤养分数据, 分析了南亚热带常绿阔叶林树木多样性与生物量和生产力的关联及其影响因素。相关性分析结果表明, 物种多样性与生物量呈显著负相关, 与生产力呈显著正相关; 结构多样性与生物量呈显著正相关, 与生产力呈显著负相关。此外, 不同环境因子对多样性、生物量和生产力的影响具有显著差异, 其中土壤含水量对生产力有显著影响, 物种多样性指标与部分地形和土壤因子均有相关性, 而群落结构多样性指标与土壤因子的相关性更强。方差分解结果表明, 结构多样性对生物量和生产力的单独效应的解释率最大, 分别为35.39%和5.21%; 其次是结构多样性和物种多样性的共同效应, 对生物量和生产力的解释率分别为13.66%和3.53%; 地形和土壤因子的解释率较小。同时, 结构方程结果也表明, 结构多样性对生物量有较强的直接正影响; 生物量对生产力有强烈的直接负影响, 结构多样性通过增加生物量明显地减少了生产力; 土壤和地形因子主要是通过物种和结构多样性间接影响生物量和生产力。综上, 本研究认为在南亚热带森林演替顶极群落中, 群落结构复杂性和物种多样性的提高对促进群落生产力和生物量具有重要作用。     

蒲河水质空间异质性特征及其对流域土地利用方式的响应

河流水质空间变化特征是流域生态系统健康评价的关键指标,是地形、地貌、气候、水文等自然环境因素及综合反映人类活动强度的土地利用方式对流域生态环境的复合作用,研究河流水质空间异质性特征及其对流域土地利用方式的响应关系对流域生态管理具有十分重要的指导意义,然而水质空间异质性特征及其对土地利用方式的响应机制研究仍不清楚。本文以辽河流域支流蒲河子流域为研究对象,利用GIS技术和地统计学方法,分析蒲河流域水质指标TN、TP、NH4+-N、CODcr、pH、DO和TDS空间变异特征,探讨流域不同土地利用方式对水质空间变化的影响。结果表明:蒲河流域水质指标NH4+-N、DO和TDS受结构性因素影响显著,表现出较强空间变异性;TP、CODcr和pH的空间异质性较弱,主要由随机性因素引起;TN受到结构性因素和随机性因素共同作用,表现出较弱空间变异特征;TN和NH4+-N含量与林地所占比例呈显著负相关,与耕地和建设用地所占比例呈显著正相关;pH和DO与水域面积和未利用地所占比例呈负相关;表明蒲河流域TN和NH4+-N空间异质性的主导因素为林地、耕地和建设用地等土地利用类型,pH和DO空间异质性的主导因素为水域和未利用地土地利用类型,该研究可为流域水环境管理提供数据支持。     

鄂西北地区土地利用格局及其生态系统服务价值的时空变化

鄂西北地区位于湖北省西北部, 是我国自然地理南北过渡的重要地区, 亦是我国南水北调中线工程的重要水源区, 生态环境保护意义重大。在鄂西北地区六期遥感数据基础上, 利用地理信息技术和空间统计的方法, 研究了该区域土地利用格局的时空变化, 对不同用地类型所提供的生态系统服务价值进行评估, 分析了生态系统服务价值与土地利用格局的驱动因素和相关性, 计算了社会经济因素与生态系统服务价值的空间相关性。研究结果表明: (1)1990—2015年鄂西北主要土地利用类型的变化幅度较小, 土地综合动态度为0.06%, 土地类型斑块破碎化程度增加, 斑块形状趋于复杂。(2)研究区间鄂西北生态服务价值处于上升趋势, 生态系统服务价值与景观格局的时空变化具有相关性, 其中与多样性指数呈正相关性, 与蔓延度指数呈负相关性。(3)人均国内生产总值、人口密度和城镇化率是生态系统价值变化的主要驱动因素, 与生态服务价值的局部空间相关性主要集中南部区域。研究结果为鄂西北生态环境可持续发展、合理开发土地资源提供理论依据。     

土地利用方式和社会经济对大伙房水库上游河流水质空间异质性的影响

根据2012 年8-9 月大伙房水库上游河流水体采样数据, 利用GIS 技术和地统计学方法, 分析了水质指标TN、TP、NH4⁺-N、COD_cr、BOD₅、pH、DO 和硅酸盐的空间变异特征, 并运用冗余分析的方法识别不同土地利用方式和社会经济状况对河流水质的影响。研究结果表明, 大伙房上游河流水质指标在空间分布上存在较大差异, 浑河(清原段)水质状况优于社河和苏子河, 靠近库区及库区周边小支流水质状况变差。TN、TP、NH4⁺-N、BOD₅ 和DO 的结构比大于75%, 说明其空间变化主要由随机性因素引起的, 硅酸盐结构比较小, 说明其受结构性因素影响显著。土地利用和社会经济的影响在大伙房上游水质空间分布占有重要份额, 其中土地利用能解释流域水质变异的16.2%, 具体表现为TN 和NH4⁺-N 含量与草地所占比例呈显著负相关, 与耕地所占比例呈显著正相关。TP、COD_cr、BOD₅、pH和硅酸盐含量与林地所占比例呈显著负相关, 与水域面积、建设用地和未利用地所占比例呈显著正相关。社会经济能解释大伙房上游水质变异的12.1%, 主要表现为水体TN、TP 含量与人均GDP 呈正相关, COD_cr 和BOD₅ 含量与工业比重呈正相关。因此, 合理配置土地类型、调控工业、农业和服务业等产业结构将在流域水生态管理中起到重要作用。     

基于空间面板STIRPAT模型的水足迹影响因素分析——以山东省为例

随着中国水资源供需矛盾加剧,虚拟水成为地区水资源管理中不可或缺的一环,为提高地区水资源综合利用效率和探索水资源区域一体化管理提供了新思路。采用“自下而上”法核算了山东省17个城市农业、工业、生活、生态与灰水足迹,在分析2009—2018年水足迹时空分布规律基础上,综合运用探索性空间数据分析方法、面板数据STIRPAT模型和空间杜宾模型,揭示了水足迹的空间自相关特征,量化分析了人口数量、富裕程度、技术进步、城镇化和产业升级等影响因素对水足迹的本地影响效应与空间溢出效应。结果显示：(1)2009—2018年山东省水足迹总量均呈现波动上升的变化趋势;空间布局上呈现东部沿海和西部平原水足迹高,中部山地水足迹低的特点。(2)山东省水足迹具有正向的空间自相关性,相比地理位置相邻,水足迹的空间相关性受人口数量因素影响更大,表现出明显的“高高”聚集和“低低”聚集特征,但是受到经济因素的主要影响,区域间水足迹空间相关性随时间发展逐渐下降。(3)人口数量是山东省水足迹增长的重要来源,经济增长是推动各地区间水资源竞争关系的最重要因素。城镇化能够缓解本地水资源压力,技术进步和产业升级不仅能缓解本地水资源压力,...     

全球旱地饱和水汽压差和根区土壤水分变化对植被生产力的影响及其成因

旱地约占全球陆地面积的40%,而水分是旱地植被生长的一大限制要素。尽管土壤水分与饱和水汽压差对植被生长的重要性已经得到了广泛证实,然而目前二者对植被生产力影响的空间异质性及其形成因素仍未得到深入研究,这对研究旱地生态系统对气候变化的响应带来了挑战。为了填补这一认知空白,研究收集了多源气象、根区土壤含水率和总初级生产力产品,基于随机森林算法量化了植被总初级生产力对根区土壤含水率和饱和水汽压差的敏感性,结合土地覆盖数据和分档平均方法分析了敏感性空间异质性的形成机制。结果表明:全球旱地饱和水汽压差与植被生产力总体呈显著上升趋势;根区土壤水分对植被生长的影响以正效应主导,饱和水汽压差对植被生长的影响以负效应主导;相较于森林和灌木,饱和水汽压差对植被生长的负效应及根区土壤含水率对植被生长的正效应在农田、草地和苔原及半干旱区更为强烈;植被生产力对饱和水汽压差和根区土壤水分的敏感性在数量上总体呈显著的线性负相关性。综上,植被种类和气候条件是导致全球旱地植被生产力对土壤水分和饱和水汽压差敏感性空间异质性的重要因素。     

密云水库上游流域生态系统服务功能空间特征及其与居民福祉的关系

生态系统管理的一个重要挑战是在区域尺度上管理生态系统服务并提高当地居民福祉。以2009年土地利用数据和社会经济数据为基础,利用InVEST模型和空间制图在乡镇尺度上对密云水库上游流域水资源供给服务、土壤保持服务、水质净化服务、产品供给服务以及居民福祉进行了定量评估和空间特征刻画,并探讨了生态系统服务与居民福祉的不同关系模式。结果表明,流域内各乡镇土壤保持服务从上游到下游呈逐渐递增的趋势,水质净化服务从上游到下游整体上也呈逐渐递增的趋势,流域内水质净化服务功能与水资源供给服务、粮食供给服务、蔬菜供给服务以及畜牧产品供给服务在空间上呈显著负相关;基于生态系统服务与居民福祉在空间上的聚集特征,可将56个乡镇划分为低服务低福祉模式、供给服务依赖模式和高服务高福祉模式,针对这3种关系模式特点,可分别提出改善生态系统服务功能和居民福祉的管理措施。案例研究可为其他区域实施分区管理、协调生态系统服务功能保护与居民福祉的关系提供借鉴。     

Effects of Extreme Climate Events on Tea (Camellia sinensis) Functional Quality Validate Indigenous Farmer Knowledge and Sensory Preferences in Tropical China

Climate change is impacting agro-ecosystems, crops, and farmer livelihoods in communities worldwide. While it is well understood that more frequent and intense climate events in many areas are resulting in a decline in crop yields, the impact on crop quality is less acknowledged, yet it is critical for food systems that benefit both farmers and consumers through high-quality products. This study examines tea (Camellia sinensis; Theaceae), the world''s most widely consumed beverage after water, as a study system to measure effects of seasonal precipitation variability on crop functional quality and associated farmer knowledge, preferences, and livelihoods. Sampling was conducted in a major tea producing area of China during an extreme drought through the onset of the East Asian Monsoon in order to capture effects of extreme climate events that are likely to become more frequent with climate change. Compared to the spring drought, tea growth during the monsoon period was up to 50% higher. Concurrently, concentrations of catechin and methylxanthine secondary metabolites, major compounds that determine tea functional quality, were up to 50% lower during the monsoon while total phenolic concentrations and antioxidant activity increased. The inverse relationship between tea growth and concentrations of individual secondary metabolites suggests a dilution effect of precipitation on tea quality. The decrease in concentrations of tea secondary metabolites was accompanied by reduced farmer preference on the basis of sensory characteristics as well as a decline of up to 50% in household income from tea sales. Farmer surveys indicate a high degree of agreement regarding climate patterns and the effects of precipitation on tea yields and quality. Extrapolating findings from this seasonal study to long-term climate scenario projections suggests that farmers and consumers face variable implications with forecasted precipitation scenarios and calls for research on management practices to facilitate climate adaptation for sustainable crop production.     

Corn Residue Supply in the Irrigated Corn Belt

The present study quantifies the profit-maximizing supply of corn stover per unit of land under alternative crop rotations in irrigated cropland with and without limits to irrigation. The model is parameterized based on growing conditions in Nebraska, USA. Our analysis quantifies a trilemma between stover supply, groundwater consumption, and food/feed supply per unit of land. In the absence of water conservation policies, higher stover prices are associated with higher supply and increased irrigation application. If an upper limit is imposed on irrigation at the baseline level (for groundwater conservation purposes), an increase in net revenue from stover sale from $15 to $25/metric ton is associated with an increase in stover supply of 5 metric tons/ha and a 2-metric ton reduction in corn yield under continuous corn. Under corn/soybean rotation, such an increase in net revenue is associated with an increase in stover supply of 10 metric tons/ha, and reductions of 0.5 metric tons in corn yield and 0.7 metric tons in soybean yield.     

An agent‐based modelling approach to evaluate factors influencing bioenergy crop adoption in north‐east Scotland

An agent‐based modelling (ABM) framework was adapted to assess bioenergy crop uptake and integrate social and economic processes with biophysical elements. Survey results indicated that economic rationalisation was intrinsic to farmers’ decision‐making, but was not the only consideration. This study presents an approach, set within an established resource management framework, to incorporate a number of key socio‐economic factors, which we call Mitigation Willingness Factors (MWFs), using survey data collected from farmers and land managers, into the ABM. The MWFs represent farmers’ willingness to compromise revenue in order to reduce GHG emissions, derived from their attitudes to climate change and the ability of different economic mechanisms to stimulate energy crop uptake. Adoption of bioenergy crops of different farmer types and farming enterprises was also assessed. Adoption rates and scenarios that take into account noneconomic factors are presented, and particular farming enterprises that may respond more positively to policy initiatives are identified.     

Do increases in agricultural yield spare land for nature?

Feeding a rapidly expanding human population will require a large increase in the supply of agricultural products during the coming decades. This may lead to the transformation of many landscapes from natural vegetation cover to agricultural land use, unless increases in crop yields reduce the need for new farmland. Here, we assess the evidence that past increases in agricultural yield have spared land for wild nature. We investigated the relationship between the change in the combined energy yield of the 23 most energetically important food crops over the period 1979–1999 and the change in per capita cropland area for 124 countries over the same period. Per capita area of the 23 staple crops tended to decrease in developing countries where large yield increases occurred. However, this was counteracted by a tendency for the area used to grow crops other than staples to increase in the countries where staple crop yields increased. There remained a weak tendency in developing countries for the per capita area of all cropland to decline as staple crop yield increased, a pattern that was most evident in developing countries with the highest per capita food supplies. In developed countries, there was no evidence that higher staple crop yields were associated with decreases in per capita cropland area. This may be because high agricultural subsidies in developed countries override any land-sparing pattern that might otherwise occur. Declines in the area of natural forest were smaller in countries where the yield of staple crops increased most, when the negative effects of human population increases on forest area were controlled for. Our results show that land-sparing is a weak process that occurs under a limited set of circumstances, but that it can have positive outcomes for the conservation of wild nature.     

间套作提高农田水分利用效率的节水机理

综合国内外多学科的研究成果,从地表水向土壤水的转化效率、农田水分的有效性、植物冠层结构、灌溉用水量和作物产量等方面,论述了间套作提高农田水分利用效率的节水机理.结果表明:间套作能够促进植物根系对农田水分的充分利用,有利于增加根层土壤的贮水量;间套作一方面减小棵间蒸发、抑制无效蒸腾,另一方面优化作物系统的源-库关系,创造出有利于植物生长发育的小气候,为资源在时间和空间上的集约利用和高产打好基础,在不增加农田灌溉水的同时大幅度提高单位面积产量,促进作物水分利用效率明显提高.     

黄土塬区深剖面土壤水分垂直分布特征及其时间稳定性

研究土地利用方式对深剖面土壤水分时空动态的影响,对于了解区域水循环在变化环境下的表现特征具有重要意义.本研究基于长期定位监测数据,对2012年9月至2015年12月黄土塬区4种土地利用方式0～15 m剖面土壤水分状况进行分析.结果表明: 苜蓿草地(>7年)、休闲地、高产农田和低产农田平均土壤含水量分别为15.1%、22.0%、19.6%和21.1%(0～15 m、年度平均值);干湿交替层季节性失水和蓄水分别出现在3—6月和7—10月,其深度范围分别为0～2、0～4.6、0～3和0～4.2 m.深层土壤水分具有较好的时间稳定性,其垂直分布受土地利用方式的影响.观测年份内苜蓿产量和耗水量均呈逐年增加趋势,造成深层土壤的干燥化程度加大,2～10 m土层形成稳定土壤干层,阻断了降水补给地下水的途径.对于其他3种土地利用方式下的土壤水分平衡,冬小麦生长季农田与休闲地均表现为负平衡;玉米生长季高产农田表现为负平衡,而低产农田与休闲地表现为正平衡;在作物休闲期,农田与休闲地均表现为正平衡.通过施肥处理所形成的高产农田的作物水分利用效率是低产农田的3倍以上.     

Economic viability of phytoremediation of a cadmium contaminated agricultural area using energy maize. Part I: effect on the farmer's income

This paper deals with the economic viability of using energy maize as a phytoremediation crop in a vast agricultural area moderately contaminated with metals. The acceptance of phytoremediation as a remediation technology is, besides the extraction rate, determined by its profitability, being the effects it has on the income of the farmer whose land is contaminated. This income can be supported by producing renewable energy through anaerobic digestion of energy maize, a crop that takes up only relatively low amounts of metals, but that can be valorised as a feedstock for energy production. The effect on the income per hectare of growing energy maize instead of fodder maize seems positive, given the most likely values of variables and while keeping the basic income stable, originating from dairy cattle farming activities. We propose growing energy maize aiming at risk-reduction, and generating an alternative income for farmers, yet in the long run also generating a gradual reduction of the pollution levels. In this way, remediation is demoted to a secondary objective with sustainable risk-based land use as primary objective.     

Integrating future scenario‐based crop expansion and crop conditions to map switchgrass biofuel potential in eastern Nebraska,USA

Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) has been evaluated as one potential source for cellulosic biofuel feedstocks. Planting switchgrass in marginal croplands and waterway buffers can reduce soil erosion, improve water quality, and improve regional ecosystem services (i.e. it serves as a potential carbon sink). In previous studies, we mapped high risk marginal croplands and highly erodible cropland buffers that are potentially suitable for switchgrass development, which would improve ecosystem services and minimally impact food production. In this study, we advance our previous study results and integrate future crop expansion information to develop a switchgrass biofuel potential ensemble map for current and future croplands in eastern Nebraska. The switchgrass biomass productivity and carbon benefits (i.e. NEP: net ecosystem production) for the identified biofuel potential ensemble areas were quantified. The future scenario‐based (‘A1B’) land use and land cover map for 2050, the US Geological Survey crop type and Compound Topographic Index (CTI) maps, and long‐term (1981–2010) averaged annual precipitation data were used to identify future crop expansion regions that are suitable for switchgrass development. Results show that 2528 km² of future crop expansion regions (~3.6% of the study area) are potentially suitable for switchgrass development. The total estimated biofuel potential ensemble area (including cropland buffers, marginal croplands, and future crop expansion regions) is 4232 km² (~6% of the study area), potentially producing 3.52 million metric tons of switchgrass biomass per year. Converting biofuel ensemble regions to switchgrass leads to potential carbon sinks (the total NEP for biofuel potential areas is 0.45 million metric tons C) and is environmentally sustainable. Results from this study improve our understanding of environmental conditions and ecosystem services of current and future cropland systems in eastern Nebraska and provide useful information to land managers to make land use decisions regarding switchgrass development.     

山东半岛丘陵区典型流域河流径流的影响因素分析

应用3S技术生成数字高程模型(digital elevation model,DEM),解译出大沽夹河流域范围。采用空间内插法计算流域内年平均降水量,通过选择流域内人类活动的人口数量、GDP、土地利用现状以及气候变化的降水量和气温等9个因子,采用单因子相关分析和主成分分析(PCA)方法,分析了各因素及综合因素对径流量的影响。单因子分析表明,降水量、林地和果园与径流量的相关程度显著。主成分分析表明,人口数量、耕地面积、果园面积、林地面积和水域面积对径流量影响较大,占所有分析因子贡献率的73.96%;降水量对径流量的影响次之,因子贡献率为11.38%。     

黄土丘陵区不同土地利用类型土壤水分变化特征

土壤水分是制约黄土丘陵区生态建设和土地可持续利用的关键因子,认识不同土地利用类型的土壤水分状况对该地区植被恢复和土地资源的有效利用具有重要的理论和实际意义.本研究采用EC-5土壤水分传感器,对黄土高原园则沟流域坡耕地、梯田、枣园和草地生长季内(5—10月)0~160 cm土壤剖面含水量进行连续监测,探讨这4种典型土地利用类型的土壤水分变化特征.结果表明:在降水常态年和干旱年,不同土地利用方式土壤水分的季节变化、蓄水特征及垂直分布均存在差异.在2015年干旱年,梯田表现出良好的蓄水保墒效果,0~60 cm土层生长季平均土壤含水量分别比坡耕地、枣园和草地高2.6%、4.2%、1.8%(P<0.05),0~160 cm土层储水量分别比坡耕地、枣园和草地高43.90、32.08、18.69 mm.在2014年常态年,枣园0~60 cm土层生长季平均土壤含水量分别比坡耕地、梯田和草地低2.9%、3.8%、4.5%(P<0.05);在干旱年,0~160 cm土层有效水储量仅占土壤总储水量的35.0%.不同土地利用方式下均是表层(0~20 cm)与中层(20~100 cm)土壤水分的灰色关联度较大,且土壤水分变化态势的相似程度表现为梯田>草地>坡耕地>枣园.对于试验区内的坡耕地,可考虑改造为梯田,以提高雨水资源的有效利用、促进生态农业建设;而针对黄土丘陵区旱作枣园土壤缺水严重的现象,需采取适当水分管理措施以降低枣树自身耗水和其他无效耗水,实现枣园可持续发展.