Analysis of a predator-prey model with herd behavior and disease in prey incorporating prey refuge

In this work,we have introduced an eco-epidemiological model of an infected predator prey system.Incorporation of prey refuge gives that a fraction of the infected prey is available to the predator for consumption.Moreover,to make the model more realistic to the environment,we have introduced strong Allee effect in the susceptible population.Boundedness and positivity of the solution have been established.Local stability conditions of the equilibrium points have been found with the help of Routh-Hurwitz criterion and it has been observed that if a prey population is infected with a lethal disease,then both the prey(susceptible and infected)and predator cannot survive simultaneously in the system for any parametric values.The disease transmission rate and the attack rate on the susceptible have an important role to control the system dynamics.For different values of these two key parameters,we have got only healthy or disease-free or predation-free or a fluctuating disease-free or even a fluctuating predator-free system with some certain parametric conditions.     

A predator-prey model with infected prey

A predator-prey model with logistic growth in the prey is modified to include an SIS parasitic infection in the prey with infected prey being more vulnerable to predation. Thresholds are identified which determine when the predator population survives and when the disease remains endemic. For some parameter values the greater vulnerability of the infected prey allows the predator population to persist, when it would otherwise become extinct. Also the predation on the more vulnerable prey can cause the disease to die out, when it would remain endemic without the predators.     

Dynamics of a stochastic predator-prey model with habitat complexity and prey aggregation

Interplay between predator and prey is a complex process in ecosystems due to its nature. The population dynamics can be affected by many extrinsic and intrinsic factors. In this paper, we make an attempt to uncover the effects from environmental disturbances when populations are subject to habitat complexity and aggregation effect. We firstly propose a stochastic predator-prey model with habitat complexity and aggregation efficiency for prey. We then mathematically analyze the model, to demonstrate the existence, uniqueness and the stochastically ultimately boundedness of the global positive solution, and to establish sufficient conditions for the existence of ergodic stationary distribution of the solution. We also establish sufficient conditions under which either only predator population dies out or the entire predator-prey model becomes extinct. Our theoretical and numerical results indicate that: (1) the environmental noises are disadvantage for the survival of biological populations; (2) when the density of prey is greater than one, prey aggregation can heighten the capability of predator species to capture prey and reduce the effect of environmental fluctuations, while when the density of prey is less than one, the results are opposite; (3) habitat complexity is propitious to the survival of prey population and may seriously threaten the persistence of the predator population.     

Bifurcation and stability analysis of a temperature-dependent mite predator-prey interaction model incorporating a prey refuge

The non-linear behavior of a differential equations-based predator-prey model, incorporating a spatial refuge protecting a consant proportion of prey and with temperature-dependent parameters chosen appropriately for a mite interaction on fruit trees, is examined using the numerical bifurcation code AUTO 86. The most significant result of this analysis is the existence of a temperature interval in which increasing the amount of refuge dynamically destabilizes the system; and on part of this interval the interaction is less likely to persist in that predator and prey minimum population densities are lower than when no refuge is available. It is also shown that increasing the amount of refuge can lead to population outbreaks due to the presence of multiple stable states. The ecological implications of a refuge are discussed with respect to the biological control of mite pests.     

Persistence and global stability in a predator-prey model consisting of three prey genotypes with fertility differences

A model of a predator-prey interaction, where the prey population consists of three genotypes with random mating and continuous, nonlinear birth and death processes with fertility differences, is proposed. Sufficiency conditions giving the existence of a globally stable equilibrium on one of the coordinate planes are given. This extends results of Freedman and Waltman [J. Math. Biol. 6, 367–374 (1978) andRocky Mountain J. Math. 12, 779–784 (1982)]. In addition, conditions are derived which guarantee the persistence of all components of the populations. Research in part is from a Ph.D. thesis submitted to the Faculty of Graduate Studies and Research of the University of Alberta. Research partially supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, grant no. NSERC A4813.     

Impact of fear effect on the growth of prey in a predator-prey interaction model

Several field data and experiments on a terrestrial vertebrates exhibited that the fear of predators would cause a substantial variability of prey demography. Fear for predator population enhances the survival probability of prey population, and it can greatly reduce the reproduction of prey population. Based on the experimental evidence, we proposed and analyzed a prey-predator system introducing the cost of fear into prey reproduction with Holling type-II functional response. We investigate all the biologically feasible equilibrium points, and their stability is analyzed in terms of the model parameters. Our mathematical analysis exhibits that for strong anti-predator responses can stabilize the prey-predator interactions by ignoring the existence of periodic behaviors. Our model system undergoes Hopf bifurcation by considering the birth rate r₀ as a bifurcation parameter. For larger prey birth rate, we investigate the transition to a stable coexisting equilibrium state, with oscillatory approach to this equilibrium state, indicating that the greatest characteristic eigenvalues are actually a pair of imaginary eigenvalues with real part negative, which is increasing for r₀. We obtained the conditions for the occurrence of Hopf bifurcation and conditions governing the direction of Hopf bifurcation, which imply that the prey birth rate will not only influence the occurrence of Hopf bifurcation but also alter the direction of Hopf bifurcation. We identify the parameter regions associated with the extinct equilibria, predator-free equilibria and coexisting equilibria with respect to prey birth rate, predator mortality rates. Fear can stabilize the predator-prey system at an interior steady state, where all the species can exists together, or it can create the oscillatory coexistence of all the populations. We performed some numerical simulations to investigate the relationship between the effects of fear and other biologically related parameters (including growth/decay rate of prey/predator), which exhibit the impact that fear can have in prey-predator system. Our numerical illustrations also demonstrate that the prey become less sensitive to perceive the risk of predation with increasing prey growth rate or increasing predators decay rate.     

Individual variation in prey choice in a predator-prey community

One predator-two prey community models are studied with an emphasis on individual variation in predator behavior. The predator behaves according to a well-known prey choice model. The behavioral model predicts that predators should always attack the primary prey (more profitable prey of the two), but only attack the alternative prey (less profitable prey of the two) when the density of the primary prey is below a threshold density. The predator that accepts the alternative prey does not discriminate between the primary and alternative prey (all-or-nothing preference for the alternative prey). However, empirical studies do not result in clear all-or-nothing responses. Previous models examined the relaxation of the all-or-nothing response by assuming partial preference (e.g., predators preferentially forage on the primary prey even when they also attack the alternative prey). In this study, I consider individual variation in two predator traits (prey density perception and handling time) as the sources of the variation in the threshold density, which can make empirical data appear deviated from the expectation. I examine how community models with partial preference and individual variation differ in their dynamics and show that the differences can be substantial. For example, the dynamics of a model based on individual variation can be more stable (e.g., stable in a wider parameter region) than that of a model based on partial preference. As the general statistical property (Jensen’s inequality) is a main factor that causes the differences, the results of the study have general implications to the interpretation of models based on average per-capita rates.     

Stability regions in predator-prey systems with constant-rate prey harvesting

Summary We analyze the global behavior of a predator-prey system, modelled by a pair of non-linear ordinary differential equations, under constant-rate prey harvesting. By methods analogous to those used to study predator harvesting, we characterize the theoretically possible structures and transitions. With the aid of a computer simulation we construct examples to show which of these transitions can be realized in a biologically plausible model.Sponsored by the United States Army under Contract No. DAAG29-75-C-0024 and the National Research Council of Canada, Grant No. 67-3138.     

Habitat destruction in a simple predator-prey patch model: how predators enhance prey persistence and abundance

We model a metapopulation of predator-prey patches using both spatially implicit or mean-field (MF) and spatially explicit (SE) approaches. We show that in the MF model there are parameter regimes for which prey cannot persist in the absence of predators, but can in their presence. In addition, there are parameter regimes for which prey may persist in isolation, but the presence of predators will increase prey patch density. Predators may thus enhance prey persistence and overall abundance. The key mechanism responsible for this effect is the occurrence of prey dispersal from patches that are occupied by both prey and predators. In addition, these patches should be either long-lived, such as that occurs when predators keep prey from overexploiting its local resource, or the presence of a predator on a patch should significantly enhance the prey dispersal out of that patch. In the SE approach these positive effects of predators on prey persistence and abundance occur for even larger parameter ranges than in the MF model. Prey dispersal from predator-prey patches may thus be important for persistence of both species as a community, independent of the modeling framework studied. Comparison of the MF and SE approaches shows that local dispersal constraints can have the edge over global dispersal for the persistence of the metapopulation in regimes where the two species have a beneficial effect on each other. In general, our model provides an example of feedback in multiple-species metapopulations that can make the implementation of conservation schemes based on single-species arguments very risky.     

The geometrical analysis of a predator-prey model with two state impulses

Using successor functions and Poincaré-Bendixson theorem of impulsive differential equations, the existence of periodical solutions to a predator-prey model with two state impulses is investigated. By stability theorem of periodic solution to impulsive differential equations, the stability conditions of periodic solutions to the system are given. Some simulations are exerted to prove the results.     

Effects of prey refuges on a predator-prey model with a class of functional responses: The role of refuges

In this paper, the effects of refuges used by prey on a predator-prey interaction with a class of functional responses are studied by using the analytical approach. The refuges are considered as two types: a constant proportion of prey and a fixed number of prey using refuges. We will evaluate the effects with regard to the local stability of the interior equilibrium point, the values of the equilibrium density and the long-term dynamics of the interacting populations. The results show that the effects of refuges used by prey increase the equilibrium density of prey population while decrease that of predators. It is also proved that the effects of refuges can stabilize the interior equilibrium point of the considered model, and destabilize it under a very restricted set of conditions which is disagreement with previous results in this field.     

Uniqueness of limit cycle in the predator-prey system with symmetric prey isocline

We consider a special form of the Gause model of interactions between predator and prey populations. Using the ideas of Cheng, we prove the uniqueness of the limit cycle for more general systems, satisfying some additional conditions. These include also a condition due to Kuang and Freedman. Moreover, in this paper it is shown that the similar generalization of Cheng's uniqueness proof by Conway and Smoller is not correct.     

Effect of delay in a Lotka-Volterra type predator-prey model with a transmissible disease in the predator species

We consider a system of delay differential equations modeling the predator-prey ecoepidemic dynamics with a transmissible disease in the predator population. The time lag in the delay terms represents the predator gestation period. We analyze essential mathematical features of the proposed model such as local and global stability and in addition study the bifurcations arising in some selected situations. Threshold values for a few parameters determining the feasibility and stability conditions of some equilibria are discovered and similarly a threshold is identified for the disease to die out. The parameter thresholds under which the system admits a Hopf bifurcation are investigated both in the presence of zero and non-zero time lag. Numerical simulations support our theoretical analysis.     

Bifurcation analysis of a predator-prey model with predators using hawk and dove tactics

Most classical prey-predator models do not take into account the behavioural structure of the population. Usually, the predator and the prey populations are assumed to be homogeneous, i.e. all individuals behave in the same way. In this work, we shall take into account different tactics that predators can use for exploiting a common self-reproducing resource, the prey population. Predators fight together in order to keep or to have access to captured prey individuals. Individual predators can use two behavioural tactics when they encounter to dispute a prey, the classical hawk and dove tactics. We assume two different time scales. The fast time scale corresponds to the inter-specific searching and handling for the prey by the predators and the intra-specific fighting between the predators. The slow time scale corresponds to the (logistic) growth of the prey population and mortality of the predator. We take advantage of the two time scales to reduce the dimension of the model and to obtain an aggregated model that describes the dynamics of the total predator and prey densities at the slow time scale. We present the bifurcation analysis of the model and the effects of the different predator tactics on persistence and stability of the prey-predator community are discussed.     

Human activity helps prey win the predator-prey space race

Predator-prey interactions, including between large mammalian wildlife species, can be represented as a "space race", where prey try to minimize and predators maximize spatial overlap. Human activity can also influence the distribution of wildlife species. In particular, high-human disturbance can displace large carnivore predators, a trait-mediated direct effect. Predator displacement by humans could then indirectly benefit prey species by reducing predation risk, a trait-mediated indirect effect of humans that spatially decouples predators from prey. The purpose of this research was to test the hypothesis that high-human activity was displacing predators and thus indirectly creating spatial refuge for prey species, helping prey win the "space race". We measured the occurrence of eleven large mammal species (including humans and cattle) at 43 camera traps deployed on roads and trails in southwest Alberta, Canada. We tested species co-occurrence at camera sites using hierarchical cluster and nonmetric multidimensional scaling (NMS) analyses; and tested whether human activity, food and/or habitat influenced predator and prey species counts at camera sites using regression tree analysis. Cluster and NMS analysis indicated that at camera sites humans co-occurred with prey species more than predator species and predator species had relatively low co-occurrence with prey species. Regression tree analysis indicated that prey species were three times more abundant on roads and trails with >32 humans/day. However, predators were less abundant on roads and trails that exceeded 18 humans/day. Our results support the hypothesis that high-human activity displaced predators but not prey species, creating spatial refuge from predation. High-human activity on roads and trails (i.e., >18 humans/day) has the potential to interfere with predator-prey interactions via trait-mediated direct and indirect effects. We urge scientist and managers to carefully consider and quantify the trait-mediated indirect effects of humans, in addition to direct effects, when assessing human impacts on wildlife and ecosystems.     

Estimating a predator-prey dynamical model with the parameter cascades method

Summary .   Ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are widely used in ecology to describe the dynamical behavior of systems of interacting populations. However, systems of ODEs rarely provide quantitative solutions that are close to real field observations or experimental data because natural systems are subject to environmental and demographic noise and ecologists are often uncertain about the correct parameterization. In this article we introduce "parameter cascades" as an improved method to estimate ODE parameters such that the corresponding ODE solutions fit the real data well. This method is based on the modified penalized smoothing with the penalty defined by ODEs and a generalization of profiled estimation, which leads to fast estimation and good precision for ODE parameters from noisy data. This method is applied to a set of ODEs originally developed to describe an experimental predator–prey system that undergoes oscillatory dynamics. The new parameterization considerably improves the fit of the ODE model to the experimental data sets. At the same time, our method reveals that important structural assumptions that underlie the original ODE model are essentially correct. The mathematical formulations of the two nonlinear interaction terms (functional responses) that link the ODEs in the predator–prey model are validated by estimating the functional responses nonparametrically from the real data. We suggest two major applications of "parameter cascades" to ecological modeling: It can be used to estimate parameters when original data are noisy, missing, or when no reliable priori estimates are available; it can help to validate the structural soundness of the mathematical modeling approach.     

Slight phenotypic variation in predators and prey causes complex predator-prey oscillations

Predator-prey oscillations are expected to show a 1/4-phase lag between predator and prey. However, observed dynamics of natural or experimental predator-prey systems are often more complex. A striking but hardly studied example are sudden interruptions of classic 1/4-lag cycles with periods of antiphase oscillations, or periods without any regular predator-prey oscillations. These interruptions occur for a limited time before the system reverts to regular 1/4-lag oscillations, thus yielding intermittent cycles. Reasons for this behaviour are often difficult to reveal in experimental systems. Here we test the hypothesis that such complex dynamical behaviour may result from minor trait variation and trait adaptation in both the prey and predator, causing recurrent small changes in attack rates that may be hard to capture by empirical measurements. Using a model structure where the degree of trait variation in the predator can be explicitly controlled, we show that a very limited amount of adaptation resulting in 10–15% temporal variation in attack rates is already sufficient to generate these intermittent dynamics. Such minor variation may be present in experimental predator-prey systems, and may explain disruptions in regular 1/4-lag oscillations.     

Availability of prey resources drives evolution of predator-prey interaction

Productivity is predicted to drive the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of predator-prey interaction through changes in resource allocation between different traits. Here we report results of an evolutionary experiment where prey bacteria Serratia marcescens was exposed to predatory protozoa Tetrahymena thermophila in low- and high-resource environments for approximately 2400 prey generations. Predation generally increased prey allocation to defence and caused prey selection lines to become more diverse. On average, prey became most defensive in the high-resource environment and suffered from reduced resource use ability more in the low-resource environment. As a result, the evolution of stronger prey defence in the high-resource environment led to a strong decrease in predator-to-prey ratio. Predation increased temporal variability of populations and traits of prey. However, this destabilizing effect was less pronounced in the high-resource environment. Our results demonstrate that prey resource availability can shape the trade-off allocation of prey traits, which in turn affects multiple properties of the evolving predator-prey system.     

Taxis-driven pattern formation in a predator-prey model with group defense

We consider a reaction-diffusion(-taxis) predator-prey system with group defense in the prey. Taxis-driven instability can occur if the group defense influences the taxis rate (Wang et al., 2017). We elaborate that this mechanism is indeed possible but biologically unlikely to be responsible for pattern formation in such a system. Conversely, we show that patterns in excitable media such as spatiotemporal Sierpinski gasket patterns occur in the reaction-diffusion model as well as in the reaction-diffusion-taxis model. If group defense leads to a dome-shaped functional response, these patterns can have a rescue effect on the predator population in an invasion scenario. Preytaxis with prey repulsion at high prey densities can intensify this mechanism leading to taxis-induced persistence. In particular, taxis can increase parameter regimes of successful invasions and decrease minimum introduction areas necessary for a successful invasion. Last, we consider the mean period of the irregular oscillations. As a result of the underlying mechanism of the patterns, this period is two orders of magnitude smaller than the period in the nonspatial system. Counter-intuitively, faster-moving predators lead to lower oscillation periods and eventually to extinction of the predator population. The study does not only provide valuable insights on theoretical spatially explicit predator-prey models with group defense but also comparisons of ecological data with model simulations.     

Dynamical analysis of a prey-predator model incorporating a prey refuge with variable carrying capacity

A prey-predator model incorporating prey refuge with variable carrying capacity and Holling type-II functional response is proposed and analyzed. The model includes a case of increasing carrying capacity as well as a decreasing carrying capacity case. Sufficient conditions are derived to ensure the existence and local stability of the equilibrium points of the proposed model. Moreover, the occurrence of transcritical bifurcation as well as Hopf bifurcation are investigated. The effect of some model parameter related to the prey refuge and the variable carrying capacity on the prey-predator dynamics has been examined. Numerical simulations are presented to demonstrate the theoretical results and to illustrate the effect of these parameters on the model dynamics. Moreover, a comparison with the constant carrying case has been presented.