Connectivity of priority areas for the conservation of large carnivores in northern Mexico

The loss and fragmentation of habitat has negative effects on populations of large carnivores, but ecological corridors that allow dispersal of individuals among habitat remnants mitigate these effects. Our objectives were to identify 1) priority areas for the conservation of three species of large carnivores in northern Mexico, 2) the corridors that can maintain connectivity between them, and 3) pinch points signifying habitat loss that threatens connectivity. We generated species distribution models using MaxEnt and GLM to obtain a consensus model for each species. We applied an inverse function to the probability gradient of the consensus models to calculate the resistance and identify the corridors between priority areas. With Linkage Mapper software, we generated the corridors, calculated their centrality and that of the priority areas, and identified the areas where the corridors are narrower (i.e., pinch points). Finally, we identified the main anthropic fragmentation elements in the most important corridors. We identified 6 priority areas for jaguar, 20 for puma and 21 for black bear, with 5 corridors for jaguar, 22 for puma and 29 for black bear. The pinch points were produced by agricultural fields, human settlements, roads, or combinations of these factors. Depending on the element of fragmentation in each corridor, we propose specific strategies at the pinch points, e.g., applying restoration programs, including wildlife crossings to mitigate road killed cases, promoting payment programs for environmental services or compensation in cases of conflict, to increase the support of local inhabitants for conservation.     

Identification of Priority Conservation Areas and Potential Corridors for Jaguars in the Caatinga Biome,Brazil

The jaguar, Panthera onca, is a top predator with the extant population found within the Brazilian Caatinga biome now known to be on the brink of extinction. Designing new conservation units and potential corridors are therefore crucial for the long-term survival of the species within the Caatinga biome. Thus, our aims were: 1) to recognize suitable areas for jaguar occurrence, 2) to delineate areas for jaguar conservation (PJCUs), 3) to design corridors among priority areas, and 4) to prioritize PJCUs. A total of 62 points records of jaguar occurrence and 10 potential predictors were analyzed in a GIS environment. A predictive distributional map was obtained using Species Distribution Modeling (SDM) as performed by the Maximum Entropy (Maxent) algorithm. Areas equal to or higher than the median suitability value of 0.595 were selected as of high suitability for jaguar occurrence and named as Priority Jaguar Conservation Units (PJCU). Ten PJCUs with sizes varying from 23.6 km² to 4,311.0 km² were identified. Afterwards, we combined the response curve, as generated by SDM, and expert opinions to create a permeability matrix and to identify least cost corridors and buffer zones between each PJCU pair. Connectivity corridors and buffer zone for jaguar movement included an area of 8.884,26 km² and the total corridor length is about 160.94 km. Prioritizing criteria indicated the PJCU representing c.a. 68.61% of the total PJCU area (PJCU # 1) as of high priority for conservation and connectivity with others PJCUs (PJCUs # 4, 5 and 7) desirable for the long term survival of the species. In conclusion, by using the jaguar as a focal species and combining SDM and expert opinion we were able to create a valid framework for practical conservation actions at the Caatinga biome. The same approach could be used for the conservation of other carnivores.     

Agricultural encroachment and lack of enforcement threaten connectivity of range-wide jaguar (Panthera onca) corridor

The purpose of protected areas is to safeguard natural habitats and their biodiversity. However, few protected areas are large enough for the long-term conservation of resident species, making the landscapes surrounding protected areas equally important for species conservation. This is especially true for wide-ranging carnivores such as the jaguar (Panthera onca), for which conservation strategies stress the maintenance of range-wide habitat connectivity via protected areas and dispersal corridors. We used 587 interviews with local people in 441 36-km² sampling units to assess the presence of jaguar and six prey species in a critical corridor in Central America, linking Bosawas Biosphere Reserve and Wawashan Nature Reserve in Nicaragua. We analyzed these data using single-season false-positive detection models in a site occupancy framework. We found that agricultural encroachment, particularly pervasive within a protected area, was the main factor limiting the presence of jaguar and three large-bodied prey species: white-lipped peccary (Tayassu pecari), collared peccary (Pecari tajacu), and red brocket deer (Mazama americana). We suggest that improperly-managed protected areas can suffer the loss of apex predators and their prey, thereby jeopardizing range-wide conservation strategies for threatened species.     

Predicting potential distribution of the jaguar (Panthera onca) in Mexico: identification of priority areas for conservation

Aim The jaguar, Panthera onca, is a species of global conservation concern. In Mexico, the northernmost part of its distribution range, its conservation status, is particularly critical, while its potential and actual distribution is poorly known. We propose an ensemble model (EM) of the potential distribution for the jaguar in Mexico and identify the priority areas for conservation. Location Mexico. Methods We generated our EM based on three presence‐only methods (Ecological Niche Factor Analysis, Mahalanobis distance, Maxent) and considering environmental, biological and anthropogenic factors. We used this model to evaluate the efficacy of the existing Mexican protected areas (PAs), to evaluate the adequacy of the jaguar conservation units (JCUs) and to propose new areas that should be considered for conservation and management of the species in Mexico. Results Our results outline that 16% of Mexico (c. 312,000 km²) can be considered as suitable for the presence of the jaguar. Furthermore, 13% of the suitable areas are included in existing PAs and 14% are included in JCUs ( Sanderson et al., 2002 ). Main conclusions Clearly much more should be carried out to establish a proactive conservation strategy. Based on our results, we propose here new jaguar conservation and management areas that are important for a nationwide conservation blueprint.     

Multi-criteria spatial identification of carnivore conservation areas under data scarcity and conflict: a jaguar case study in Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta,Colombia

Human–wildlife conflict, habitat loss, and prey hunting are the main threats to carnivore species worldwide. Forest conversion as consequence of deforestation and agricultural expansion increases the proximity between carnivores and humans, thereby escalating conflicts. Knowledge about carnivore species in data-poor countries, such as Colombia, is scarce which has the potential to result in poor landscape planning decisions. For many species, the only existing spatial information resides in expert-driven approaches which result in coarse-resolution ‘extent-of-occurrence’ maps. There is an increasing need for the development of methodologies to identify conservation and management areas at appropriate scales. Multi-criteria approaches will allow the inclusion of diverse species attributes enabling environmental institutions to address complex landscape decisions that result in conservation and management of carnivore habitat. We present a multi-criteria spatial identification tool for conservation and management areas, focused on Jaguars (Panthera onca) in the Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta, in northern Colombia. Our approach identifies areas based on the relationship between three spatial criteria: (1) suitable habitat patches, (2) habitat connectivity, and (3) zones of higher likelihood of human–jaguar conflict. We identified areas with the presence of at least one spatial criteria in 32% of the study area. Only 16.28% of these occur within protected areas (PAs) and the remaining fall on private lands (83.72%), either within (35.68%) or outside (48.04%) buffer zones of PAs. Our results highlight the need for multi-stakeholder collaborative approaches given that most proposed conservation areas fall on private rather than public lands.     

Assessing occupancy and habitat connectivity for Baird’s tapir to establish conservation priorities in the Sierra Madre de Chiapas,Mexico

Baird’s tapir (Tapirus bairdii) is the largest native mammal that inhabits the Neotropics, and it is enlisted as Endangered by the IUCN Red List. The historic distribution of this species included the area from southern Mexico to northern Colombia. However, its distribution and populations have been reduced drastically during the past 30 years. The main threats for Baird’s tapir are the direct persecution for subsistence hunting, habitat destruction, and habitat fragmentation. In this study, we used camera traps and occupancy models to identify the landscape characteristics that were associated with the occurrence of tapirs in the Sierra Madre de Chiapas, which is one of the most important populations of the species in Mexico, with the aim to identify areas with habitat suitability for the species. We used our best occupancy model to generate a resistance matrix to develop a model of habitat connectivity using Circuit Theory. According to the best occupancy model, the most suitable areas for this species were the forested areas located at the highest elevations of the mountain ranges that provided rugged terrain. We identified three critical corridors to allow for the connectivity of tapir populations in the Sierra Madre de Chiapas, and one of these corridors provides connectivity between this population and the population in the Ocote Biosphere Reserve. With this approach, we propose a conservation strategy for the species that incorporates a more realistic and detailed scheme of Baird’s tapir occurrence in the Sierra Madre de Chiapas region. Priority actions to conserve tapirs in the Sierra Madre de Chiapas over the long term include ensuring the complete protection of prime habitat for the species, improved connectivity by protecting forest cover, implementation mitigation measures in areas where paved roads interrupt connectivity of populations, and eradicating poaching of the species in the region completely.     

Mammal use of riparian corridors in semi-arid Sonora,Mexico

Wildlife populations in semi-arid regions are increasingly challenged by human activities and dependent on the connectivity of riparian corridors for access to surface water. The Madrean Archipelago is a biodiversity hotspot along the arid United States–Mexico borderlands that support both Neotropical and Nearctic wildlife. Infrastructure development (e.g., the border wall and the expansion of Mexican Federal Highway 2) in this region inhibits wildlife movement along the transnational mountain archipelago by disconnecting habitat. To explore the relationship between habitat variables and mammal use of riparian corridors in northern Sonora, Mexico, we collected data from 19 motion-sensitive cameras between October 2018 and April 2019 and used single-season occupancy models and Royle-Nichols abundance estimation models to analyze our data. We recorded 21 species of mammals, including the first sighting of jaguar (Panthera onca) in this region in 25 years. River characteristics (distance from river, riparian corridor width, water availability), remoteness (distance from highway, productivity, elevation), and topographic variety (vertical elevation difference) influenced patterns of occupancy probability and estimated abundance of mammals >1 kg, but the strength and direction of these relationships varied by species. Additionally, intermittently wet desert washes were comparable in species richness to the perennial system. These results highlight the importance of examining physical and biological aspects of habitat. This is especially true when identifying corridors where mitigation structures should be placed to improve wildlife connectivity in biodiversity hotspots like the Madrean Archipelago and semi-arid ecosystems worldwide.     

Jaguar Panthera onca Habitat Modeling in Landscapes Facing High Land‐use Transformation Pressure—Findings from Mato Grosso,Brazil

The modeling of top predators' habitats and the understanding of their environmental requirements in landscapes facing high land‐use transformation pressure have long‐standing importance for the development of conservation strategies. Multi‐distance spatial cluster analysis and logistic regression with environmental weighting for pseudo‐absence designation were applied to understand spatial patterns of jaguar occurrence in Mato Grosso state (Central Western Brazil). This location has been under intense deforestation pressure since the 1970s and is historically one of the most important jaguar habitats in the world. By using a model of five independent variables, we were able to achieve a 73.2 percent success rate of case/non‐case classification and indicate not only a general loss of habitat suitability, but also an increasing interruption of potential migration corridors in the state. Our analysis on a regional scale demonstrates the importance of forest and savannah woodland for jaguar habitat maintenance in the Mato Grosso state. The jaguar species demonstrates a sensitivity to landscape fragmentation, which can be parameterized for improved model building by metrics such as edge density and patch size. Comparisons with previous studies in South America show that parameter selection for jaguar habitat modeling is highly scale‐dependent and that habitat suitability in partially transformed landscapes could be maintained if fragmentation is minimized. Recent land‐use transformation, however, has significantly weakened the conservation status of the Pantanal‐Amazon corridor.     

Prioritizing conservation areas and vulnerability analyses of the genus Pinus L. (Pinaceae) in Mexico

Mexico hosts the highest species richness of pines (Pinus, Pinaceae) worldwide; however, the priority areas for their conservation in the country are unknown. In this study, the ecological niche of the 50 native pine species was modeled. Then, through a multi-criteria analysis, the priority areas for the conservation of the genus Pinus were identified according to the spatial patterns of richness, geographic rareness, irreplaceability, the level of vulnerability of their habitat and the status of legal protection. The results revealed that the regions with high species richness differed from those with high endemism. Also, most pine species have undergone processes of habitat degradation, having been the endemic species the most affected. The priority areas covered regions with high species richness, high endemism, and highly degraded forests, located at mountainous portions of the Baja California Peninsula, the Sierra Madre Occidental, the Sierra Madre Oriental, the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, and the Sierra Madre del Sur. A low proportion of priority areas overlapped with protected areas or terrestrial regions considered priorities for biological conservation. These results suggest that conservation efforts for this genus should be focused beyond regions with high species richness and current protected areas. Besides, the priority areas identified in this study can be the basis to create biological corridors and new protected areas, which could contribute significantly to the conservation of this genus in Mexico.     

Note on the diet of the jaguar in central Brazil

Diet of the jaguar Panthera onca in the Cerrado, central Brazil, was investigated based on a sample of genetically identified jaguar scats. At least nine prey species were observed in 35 scat samples. Giant anteaters Myrmecophaga tridactyla contributed more than 75 % of biomass to the observed diet. Tapirs Tapirus terrestris and peccaries Tayassu pecari and Pecari tajacu contributed approximately 6 % to jaguar diet each, and small mammals contributed least to the jaguar diet. At 0.121, dietary niche breadth was narrower than reported in most other studies. Due to their physical characteristics and abundance, giant anteaters are likely the most profitable prey for jaguars in Emas National Park, and as an important prey, they should be included in jaguar conservation efforts.     

Are Private Reserves Effective for Jaguar Conservation?

We present the first study of density and apparent survival for a jaguar (Panthera onca) population in northern Mexico using 13 years of camera trap data from 2000 to 2012. We used the Barker robust design model which combines data from closed sampling periods and resight data between these periods to estimate apparent survival and abundance. We identified 467 jaguar pictures that corresponded to 48 jaguar individuals. We included camera type and field technician as covariates for detection probabilities. We used three covariates to evaluate the effect of reserve on jaguar apparent survival: i) private reserve creation ii) later reserve expansions, and iii) cattle ranches’ conservation activities. We found that the use of digital cameras in addition to film cameras increased detection probability by a factor of 6x compared with the use of only film cameras (p = 0.34 ± 0.05 and p = 0.05 ± 0.02 respectively) in the closed period and more than three times in the open period (R = 0.91 ± 0.08 and R = 0.30 ± 0.13 mixed and film cameras respectively). Our availability estimates showed no temporary emigration and a fidelity probability of 1. Despite an increase of apparent survival probability from 0.47 ± 0.15 to 0.56 ± 0.11 after 2007, no single covariate explained the change in these point estimates. Mean jaguar density was 1.87 ± 0.47 jaguars/100 km². We found that 13 years of jaguar population monitoring with our sampling size were not enough for detecting changes in survival or density. Our results provide a baseline for studies evaluating the effectiveness of protected areas and the inclusion of ranch owners in jaguar conservation programs and long-term population viability.     

中国东北虎栖息地分析与潜在生态廊道构建

东北虎（Panthera tigris altaica）是现存5个虎亚种中体型最大者,其作为全球生物多样性保护的旗舰物种,在维持健康生态系统功能中占据不可替代的重要地位。近几十年来,由于东北虎栖息地受到人类活动强烈干扰,致使栖息地破碎化,主要栖息地孤立分布,呈现岛状,天然生态廊道消失殆尽,东北虎的保护面临巨大挑战。因此,确定东北虎关键栖息地,构建与恢复东北虎栖息地之间的生态廊道十分必要。本研究运用专家模型结合东北虎栖息地选择规律和栖息地特征,综合分析植被类型、国家级与省级自然保护区分布、地形因子以及人为干扰因子共7个主要影响因子;通过层次分析法(AHP)获得各影响因子的相对权重值,运用加权线性方程获得了东北虎潜在适宜栖息地,并确定了东北虎核心分布区以及分布区间的综合代价值。通过廊道设计模型（Linkage mapper）得到东北虎核心栖息地间的潜在生态廊道。结果得到了21条东北虎潜在生态廊道,对打通国内零星分布区,特别是张广才岭-完达山-老爷岭之间的迁移通道、扩大东北虎生存空间具有现实指导意义。     

Evaluating Landscape Options for Corridor Restoration between Giant Panda Reserves

The establishment of corridors can offset the negative effects of habitat fragmentation by connecting isolated habitat patches. However, the practical value of corridor planning is minimal if corridor identification is not based on reliable quantitative information about species-environment relationships. An example of this need for quantitative information is planning for giant panda conservation. Although the species has been the focus of intense conservation efforts for decades, most corridor projects remain hypothetical due to the lack of reliable quantitative researches at an appropriate spatial scale. In this paper, we evaluated a framework for giant panda forest corridor planning. We linked our field survey data with satellite imagery, and conducted species occupancy modelling to examine the habitat use of giant panda within the potential corridor area. We then conducted least-cost and circuit models to identify potential paths of dispersal across the landscape, and compared the predicted cost under current conditions and alternative conservation management options considered during corridor planning. We found that due to giant panda''s association with areas of low elevation and flat terrain, human infrastructures in the same area have resulted in corridor fragmentation. We then identified areas with high potential to function as movement corridors, and our analysis of alternative conservation scenarios showed that both forest/bamboo restoration and automobile tunnel construction would significantly improve the effectiveness of corridor, while residence relocation would not significantly improve corridor effectiveness in comparison with the current condition. The framework has general value in any conservation activities that anticipate improving habitat connectivity in human modified landscapes. Specifically, our study suggested that, in this landscape, automobile tunnels are the best means to remove current barriers to giant panda movements caused by anthropogenic interferences.     

Modelling geographic distribution and detecting conservation gaps in Italy for the threatened beetle Rosalia alpina

Presence-only models can aid conservation and management of threatened, elusive species. We developed a Maxent model for the rare cerambycid beetle Rosalia longicorn Rosalia alpina L. in Italy and neighbouring regions and identified the variables best explaining the species’ occurrence on a large scale. Once successfully validated, we used the model to (a) evaluate the current degree of fragmentation of R. alpina range in Italy; and (b) quantify the amount of the Italian territory with the highest probability of beetle presence within the existing national conservation areas (Natura 2000 network, parks and reserves). Low (<0.5) probability scores of R. alpina presence corresponded to 89% of the total area considered, whereas high scores (>0.9) covered only 2.5%. R. alpina was predicted to occur mostly in broadleaved deciduous forest at 1000–1700 m a.s.l. with warm maximum spring temperatures and May and November precipitation >80 mm. We found a high degree of fragmentation; gaps were mainly covered with farmland or other unsuitable habitat. Over 52% of potential habitat is unprotected. While the Natura 2000 network protects 42% of potential habitat, parks and reserve covers less than 29%. To preserve R. alpina, we urge to create, or restore, forest corridors to bridge the otherwise impermeable gaps our model detected and grant protection to the still largely unprotected area of the Italian territory e.g. by including it in further Natura 2000 sites. Models such as ours may also help focus field surveys in selected areas to save resources and increase survey success.     

Landscape metrics as indicators: Quantifying habitat network changes of a bush-cricket Pholidoptera transsylvanica in Hungary

Fragmentation of habitats is a serious problem for many endangered species; a possible solution is the maintenance of landscape connectivity. Due to scarce sources, in managing and planning landscapes exact and quantitative priorities must be set. Application of mathematical tools, such as network analysis, can be useful help in these decisions. We illustrate the possibilities and results of this approach with a case study of endangered Pholidoptera transsylvanica bush-cricket population in the Aggtelek Karst, Northeast-Hungary, which inhabits 39 habitat patches connected with ecological corridors. A key issue in the long-term survival of this metapopulation is the maintenance of gene flow (by preserving the connectivity of the habitat network). We evaluated the landscape graph and our results are compared to earlier ones based on older methods. During the comparison, we used several network indices to set quantitative conservation preferences. In addition, we would like to draw attention to the need for constant monitoring (and possible treatments), because several changes (like secondary succession) have occurred during the years between the two studies, threatening landscape connectivity and long-term survival of certain species. A potential solution for preventing fragmentation is establishing new corridors or improving the existing ones: we estimated the possible effects of these changes. New corridors did not have major effect on the system; maintaining already functioning corridors is more effective.     

Opportunities of habitat connectivity for tiger (Panthera tigris) between Kanha and Pench National Parks in Madhya Pradesh, India

The Tiger (Panthera tigris) population in India has undergone a sharp decline during the last few years. Of the number of factors attributed to this decline, habitat fragmentation has been the most worrisome. Wildlife corridors have long been a subject of discussion amongst wildlife biologists and conservationists with contrasting schools of thought arguing their merits and demerits. However, it is largely believed that wildlife corridors can help minimize genetic isolation, offset fragmentation problems, improve animal dispersal, restore ecological processes and reduce man animal conflict. This study attempted to evaluate the possibilities of identifying a suitable wildlife corridor between two very important wildlife areas of central India--the Kanha National Park and the Pench National Park--with tiger as the focal species. Geographic Information System (GIS) centric Least Cost Path modeling was used to identify likely routes for movement of tigers. Habitat suitability, perennial water bodies, road density, railway tracks, human settlement density and total forest edge were considered as key variables influencing tiger movement across the Kanha-Pench landscape. Each of these variables was weighted in terms of relative importance through an expert consultation process. Using different importance scenarios, three alternate corridor routes were generated of which one was identified as the most promising for tiger dispersal. Weak links--where cover and habitat conditions are currently sub-optimal--were flagged on the corridor route. Interventions aimed at augmenting the identified corridor route have been suggested using accepted wildlife corridor design principles. The involvement of local communities through initiatives such as ecotourism has been stressed as a crucial long term strategy for conservation of the Kanha-Pench wildlife corridor. The results of the study indicate that restoration of the identified wildlife corridors between the two protected areas is technically feasible.     

Corridors and barriers in biodiversity conservation: a novel resource-based habitat perspective for butterflies

Habitat loss and fragmentation, exacerbated by projected climate change, present the greatest threats to preservation of global biodiversity. As increasing habitat fragmentation and isolation of residual fragments exceeds the dispersal capacity of species, there is the growing need to address connectivity to maintain diversity. Traditionally, habitat corridors have been proposed as a solution. But, the concept of corridors (barriers) is poorly understood; typically they are defined as linear habitats linking up habitat patchwork, and are advocated without a detailed understanding of the elements making up species’ habitats and the cost-effectiveness of alternative solutions. Yet, landscapes comprise an enormous range of ‘linear’ structures that can function in different ways to promote species’ persistence and diversity. In this review, a functional definition of corridor (barrier) is developed to give prominence to connectivity as opposed to ad hoc structures purported to advance connectivity. In developing the concept, urgency to accommodate environmental changes compels a growing emphasis on organism diversity rather than a preoccupation with single species conservation. The review, in focusing on butterflies to address the issue of corridors for patchwork connectivity, draws attention to fundamental divisions among organisms in any taxon: generalists and specialists. Both groups benefit from large patches as these necessarily house species with specialist resources as well as generalists with very different resource types. But, generalists and specialists require very different solutions for connectivity, from short-range habitat corridors and gateways for specialists to habitat and resource stepping stones (nodes, surfaces) for generalists. Connectivity over extensive areas is most critical for moderate generalists and their conservation requires emphasis being placed on space–time resource heterogeneity; landscape features, of whatever dimensionality and structure, provide a vital framework for developing the variety of suitable conditions and resources for enhancing their diversity.     

Density and population structure of the jaguar (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Panthera onca</Emphasis>) in a protected area of Los Llanos,Venezuela, from 1 year of camera trap monitoring

Density is crucial for understanding large carnivore ecology and conservation, but estimating it has proven methodologically difficult. We conducted 1 year of camera trapping to estimate jaguar (Panthera onca) density and population structure in the Los Llanos region of Venezuela on the Hato Piñero ranch, where hunting is prohibited and livestock are excluded from half of ranch lands. We identified 42 different jaguars and determined their sex, age class, and reproductive status. We estimated adult jaguar densities with spatial capture-recapture models, using sex/reproductive state and session as covariates. Models without temporal variation received more support than models that allowed variation between sessions. Males, reproductive females, and nonreproductive females differed in their density, baseline detectability, and movement. The best estimate of total adult jaguar population density was 4.44 individuals/100 km². Based on reproductive female density and mean number of offspring per female, we estimated cub density at 3.23 individuals/100 km² and an overall density of 7.67 jaguars/100 km². Estimated jaguar population structure was 21% males, 11% nonreproductive females, 26% reproductive females, and 42% cubs. We conclude that extending the sampling period to 1 year increases the detectability of females and cubs and makes density estimates more robust as compared to the more common short studies. Our results demonstrate that the Venezuelan Llanos represent important jaguar habitat, and further, they emphasize the importance of protected areas and hunting restrictions for carnivore conservation.     

Identifying habitat linkages to maintain connectivity for corridor dwellers in a fragmented landscape

Anthropogenic habitat fragmentation typically precedes conservation planning; maintaining remaining linkages among core habitat areas can thus become a key conservation objective. Identifying linkages for dispersal and ensuring those linkages have long-term protection and management are challenging tasks for wildlife managers. These tasks can be especially daunting for smaller species with low mobility, termed corridor dwellers, which must maintain sustainable populations within corridors. Between May 2007 and June 2009, we collected occurrence locations for a corridor dweller, the Palm Springs pocket mouse (Perognathus longimembris bangsii), from museums, previous research, and our own field sampling. We used those data to model their suitable niche space and then identify suitable linkages between proposed conservation areas. We used a partitioned Mahalanobis D² statistic to create a spatially explicit niche model describing the distribution of a suitable niche space, and we validated the model statistically, with live trapping and with burrowing owl (Athene cunnicularia) diets. Our model identified soil characteristics, topographic ruggedness, and vegetation as variables delimiting Palm Springs pocket mouse habitat; sand content of the soils was an especially important characteristic. Our historic distribution model identified 120,000–90,000 ha as historically potential Palm Springs pocket mouse habitat; roughly 39% of that has been lost to more recent development. Most of the remaining suitable habitat occurred in the northwestern portion of the valley. We modeled habitat within core reserves as well as within proposed linkages between those reserves as having high similarity to known occupied habitats. Live trapping in areas with high (≥0.95) Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) values resulted in captures at 66% of those locations and, along with burrowing owl diets, refined a qualitative model as to what constituted a suitable Palm Springs pocket mouse corridor. While most corridor analyses have focused on mobile species which may traverse corridors in hours, days, or weeks, linkages for corridor dwellers must include habitat for sustaining multi-generational populations. This requires evaluating whether continuous suitable habitat exists within proposed corridors. Our research demonstrates how niche modeling can provide a landscape-scale view of the distribution of suitable habitat to evaluate conservation objectives for connectivity. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Prediction of habitat suitability,connectivity, and corridors in the future to conserve roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) as a locally endangered species in northern Iran

Roe deer is a protected species in Iran as its population and distribution in the country have considerably declined. Roe deer are threatened by several factors such as habitat fragmentation and road mortality, so studying their distribution and movement through the increasing habitat destruction and fragmentation is necessary. This will become increasingly important because climate change will transform the species’ future habitat and connectivity patterns. We evaluated the roe deer’s potential distribution range in northern Iran and, for the first time, developed connectivity models and designed corridors for the present and future to make better conservation plans. We collected 91 points indicating the presence of roe deer in the study region. After developing ensemble models using six species distribution algorithms, we defined high-ranked habitat cores using the concept of landscape suitability prioritization. From these, we designed connectivity and corridors in two time-frames with the help of least-cost paths and circuit theories to predict the potential movement throughout the study area. We estimated that the overall core habitats for roe deer in the present and future periods are, respectively, around 1200 km² and 2600 km², corresponding to 2 and 4 percent of the whole area. This suggests that the habitat core will expand in the future as a result of climate change. Similarly, the connectivity among the cores will strengthen. We also conclude that the temperature-driven and anthropogenic variables significantly affect the distribution of roe deer in northern Iran. It is necessary that conservationists and managers consider the designed corridors in the present study while planning conservation strategies.