Cost-Effectiveness of Tdap Vaccination of Adults Aged ≥65 Years in the Prevention of Pertussis in the US: A Dynamic Model of Disease Transmission

Objectives

In February 2012, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) advised that all adults aged ≥65 years receive a single dose of reduced-antigen-content tetanus, diphtheria, and acellular pertussis (Tdap), expanding on a 2010 recommendation for adults >65 that was limited to those with close contact with infants. We evaluated clinical and economic outcomes of adding Tdap booster of adults aged ≥65 to “baseline” practice [full-strength DTaP administered from 2 months to 4–6 years, and one dose of Tdap at 11–64 years replacing decennial Td booster], using a dynamic model.

Methods

We constructed a population-level disease transmission model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of supplementing baseline practice by vaccinating 10% of eligible adults aged ≥65 with Tdap replacing the decennial Td booster. US population effects, including indirect benefits accrued by unvaccinated persons, were estimated during a 1-year period after disease incidence reached a new steady state, with consequences of deaths and long-term pertussis sequelae projected over remaining lifetimes. Model outputs include: cases by severity, encephalopathy, deaths, costs (of vaccination and pertussis care) and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) associated with each strategy. Results in terms of incremental cost/QALY gained are presented from payer and societal perspectives. Sensitivity analyses vary key parameters within plausible ranges.

Results

For the US population, the intervention is expected to prevent >97,000 cases (>4,000 severe and >5,000 among infants) of pertussis annually at steady state. Additional vaccination costs are $4.7 million. Net cost savings, including vaccination costs, are $47.7 million (societal perspective) and $44.8 million (payer perspective). From both perspectives, the intervention strategy is dominant (less costly, and more effective by >3,000 QALYs) versus baseline. Results are robust to sensitivity analyses and alternative scenarios.

Conclusions

Immunization of eligible adults aged ≥65, consistent with the current ACIP recommendation, is cost saving from both payer and societal perspectives.     

Seroprevalence of pertussis in The Netherlands: evidence for increased circulation of Bordetella pertussis

Background

In many countries, the reported pertussis has increased despite high vaccination coverage. However, accurate determination of the burden of disease is hampered by reporting artifacts. The infection frequency is more reliably estimated on the basis of the prevalence of high IgG concentrations against pertussis toxin (IgG-Ptx). We determined whether the increase in reported pertussis in the last decade is associated with an increase in the number of infections.

Methodology/Principal Findings

In a cross-sectional population-based serosurveillance study conducted in 2006-07, from a randomly selected age-stratified sample of 7,903 persons, serum IgG-Ptx concentrations were analyzed using a fluorescent bead-based multiplex immuno assay. In 2006-07, 9.3% (95%CI 8.5-10.1) of the population above 9 years of age had an IgG-Ptx concentration above 62.5 EU/ml (suggestive for pertussis infection in the past year), which was more than double compared to 1995-96 (4.0%; 95%CI 3.3-4.7). The reported incidence showed a similar increase as the seroprevalence between both periods.

Conclusions

Although changes in the vaccination program have reduced pertussis morbidity in childhood, they have not affected the increased infection rate in adolescent and adult pertussis. Indeed, the high circulation of B. pertussis in the latter age-categories may limit the effectiveness of pediatric vaccination.     

Incidence and Reproduction Numbers of Pertussis: Estimates from Serological and Social Contact Data in Five European Countries

Background

Despite large-scale vaccination programmes, pertussis has remained endemic in all European countries and has been on the rise in many countries in the last decade. One of the reasons that have been discussed for the failure of vaccination to eliminate the disease is continued circulation of the pathogen Bordetella pertussis by mostly asymptomatic and mild infections in adolescents and adults. To understand the impact of asymptomatic and undiagnosed infection on the transmission dynamics of pertussis we analysed serological data from five European countries in combination with information about social contact patterns from five of those countries to estimate incidence and reproduction numbers.

Methods and Findings

We compared two different methods for estimating incidence from individual data on IgG pertussis toxin (PT) titres. One method combines the cross-sectional surveys of titres with longitudinal information about the distribution of amplitude and decay rate of titres in a back-calculation approach. The second method uses age-dependent contact matrices and cross-sectional surveys of IgG PT titres to estimate a next generation matrix for pertussis transmission among age groups. The next generation approach allows for computation of basic reproduction numbers for five European countries. Our main findings are that the seroincidence of infections as estimated with the first method in all countries lies between 1% and 6% per annum with a peak in the adolescent age groups and a second lower peak in young adults. The incidence of infections as estimated by the second method lies slightly lower with ranges between 1% and 4% per annum. There is a remarkably good agreement of the results obtained with the two methods. The basic reproduction numbers are similar across countries at around 5.5.

Conclusions

Vaccination with currently used vaccines cannot prevent continued circulation and reinfection with pertussis, but has shifted the bulk of infections to adolescents and adults. If a vaccine conferring lifelong protection against clinical and subclinical infection were available pertussis could be eliminated. Currently, continuing circulation of the pathogen at a subclinical level provides a refuge for the pathogen in which it can evolve and adjust to infect vaccinated populations. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

MF59?-Adjuvanted H5N1 Vaccine Induces Immunologic Memory and Heterotypic Antibody Responses in Non-Elderly and Elderly Adults

Background

Pathogenic avian influenza virus (H5N1) has the potential to cause a major global pandemic in humans. Safe and effective vaccines that induce immunologic memory and broad heterotypic response are needed.

Methods and Findings

Healthy adults aged 18–60 and >60 years (n = 313 and n = 173, respectively) were randomized (1∶1) to receive two primary and one booster injection of 7.5 μg or 15 μg doses of a subunit MF59-adjuvanted H5N1 (A/Vietnam/1194/2004) (clade 1) vaccine. Safety was monitored until 6 months after booster. Immunogenicity was assessed by hemagglutination inhibition (HI), single radial hemolysis (SRH) and microneutralization assays (MN). Mild injection-site pain was the most common adverse reaction. No serious adverse events relating to the vaccine were reported. The humoral immune responses to 7.5 μg and 15 μg doses were comparable. The rates for seroprotection (HI>40; SRH>25mm²; MN ≥40) after the primary vaccination ranged 72–87%. Six months after primary vaccination with the 7.5 μg dose, 18% and 21% of non-elderly and elderly adults were seroprotected; rates increased to 90% and 84%, respectively, after the booster vaccination. In the 15 μg group, seroprotection rates among non-elderly and elderly adults increased from 25% and 62% after primary vaccination to 92% and 88% after booster vaccination, respectively. A heterologous immune response to the H5N1/turkey/Turkey/05 strain was elicited after second and booster vaccinations.

Conclusions

Both formulations of MF59-adjuvanted influenza H5N1 vaccine were well tolerated. The European Union requirement for licensure for pre-pandemic vaccines was met by the lower dose tested. The presence of cross-reactive antibodies to a clade 2 heterologous strain demonstrates that this vaccine may be appropriate for pre-pandemic programs.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT00311480","term_id":"NCT00311480"}}NCT00311480     

Economic Analysis of Pandemic Influenza Vaccination Strategies in Singapore

Background

All influenza pandemic plans advocate pandemic vaccination. However, few studies have evaluated the cost-effectiveness of different vaccination strategies. This paper compares the economic outcomes of vaccination compared with treatment with antiviral agents alone, in Singapore.

Methodology

We analyzed the economic outcomes of pandemic vaccination (immediate vaccination and vaccine stockpiling) compared with treatment-only in Singapore using a decision-based model to perform cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analyses. We also explored the annual insurance premium (willingness to pay) depending on the perceived risk of the next pandemic occurring.

Principal Findings

The treatment-only strategy resulted in 690 deaths, 13,950 hospitalization days, and economic cost of USD$497 million. For immediate vaccination, at vaccine effectiveness of >55%, vaccination was cost-beneficial over treatment-only. Vaccine stockpiling is not cost-effective in most scenarios even with 100% vaccine effectiveness. The annual insurance premium was highest with immediate vaccination, and was lower with increased duration to the next pandemic. The premium was also higher with higher vaccine effectiveness, attack rates, and case-fatality rates. Stockpiling with case-fatality rates of 0.4–0.6% would be cost-beneficial if vaccine effectiveness was >80%; while at case-fatality of >5% stockpiling would be cost-beneficial even if vaccine effectiveness was 20%. High-risk sub-groups warrant higher premiums than low-risk sub-groups.

Conclusions

The actual pandemic vaccine effectiveness and lead time is unknown. Vaccine strategy should be based on perception of severity. Immediate vaccination is most cost-effective, but requires vaccines to be available when required. Vaccine stockpiling as insurance against worst-case scenarios is also cost-effective. Research and development is therefore critical to develop and stockpile cheap, readily available effective vaccines.     

HIV Prevalence and Associated Risk Factors among Individuals Aged 13-34 Years in Rural Western Kenya

Objectives

To estimate HIV prevalence and characterize risk factors among young adults in Asembo, rural western Kenya.

Design

Community-based cross-sectional survey.

Methods

From a demographic surveillance system, we selected a random sample of residents aged 13-34 years, who were contacted at home and invited to a nearby mobile study site. Consent procedures for non-emancipated minors required assent and parental consent. From October 2003 - April 2004, consenting participants were interviewed on risk behavior and tested for HIV and HSV-2. HIV voluntary counseling and testing was offered.

Results

Of 2606 eligible residents, 1822 (70%) enrolled. Primary reasons for refusal included not wanting blood taken, not wanting to learn HIV status, and partner/parental objection.Females comprised 53% of 1762 participants providing blood. Adjusted HIV prevalence was 15.4% overall: 20.5% among females and 10.2% among males. HIV prevalence was highest in women aged 25-29 years (36.5%) and men aged 30-34 years (41.1%). HSV-2 prevalence was 40.0% overall: 53% among females, 25.8% among males. In multivariate models stratified by gender and marital status, HIV infection was strongly associated with age, higher number of sex partners, widowhood, and HSV-2 seropositivity.

Conclusions

Asembo has extremely high HIV and HSV-2 prevalence, and probable high incidence, among young adults. Further research on circumstances around HIV acquisition in young women and novel prevention strategies (vaccines, microbicides, pre-exposure prophylaxis, HSV-2 prevention, etc.) are urgently needed.     

Response to Booster Doses of Hepatitis B Vaccine among Young Adults Who Had Received Neonatal Vaccination

Background

Newborns who have received hepatitis B immunization in 1980s are now young adults joining healthcare disciplines. The need for booster, pre- and post-booster checks becomes a practical question.

Aims

The aim of this study is to refine the HBV vaccination policy for newly admitted students in the future.

Methods

A prospective study on medical and nursing school entrants to evaluate hepatitis B serostatus and the response to booster doses among young adults.

Findings

Among 212 students, 17–23-year-old, born after adoption of neonatal immunization, 2 (0.9%) were HBsAg positive, 40 (18.9%) were anti-HBs positive. At 1 month after a single-dose booster for anti-HBs-negative students, 14.5% had anti-HBs <10 mIU/mL, 29.0% and 56.5% were 10–100 and >100 mIU/mL, respectively. The anti-HBs levels were significantly higher for females than males (mean [SD]: 431 [418] vs. 246 [339] mIU/mL, P = 0.047). At 2–4 month after the third booster dose, 97.1% had anti-HBs >100 mIU/mL and 2.9% had 10–100 mIU/mL.

Conclusions

Pre-booster check is still worthwhile to identify carriers among newly recruited healthcare workers born after adoption of neonatal immunization. A 3-dose booster, rather than a single dose, is required for the majority to achieve an anti-HBs level >100 mIU/mL, as memory immunity has declined in a substantial proportion of individuals. Cost-effectiveness of post-booster check for anti-HBs is low and should be further evaluated based on contextual specific utilization of results.     

Efficacy of vaccination against HPV infections to prevent cervical cancer in France: present assessment and pathways to improve vaccination policies

Background

Seventy percent of sexually active individuals will be infected with Human Papillomavirus (HPV) during their lifetime. These infections are incriminated for almost all cervical cancers. In France, 3,068 new cases of cervical cancer and 1,067 deaths from cervical cancer occurred in 2005. Two vaccines against HPV infections are currently available and vaccination policies aim to decrease the incidence of HPV infections and of cervical cancers. In France, vaccine coverage has been reported to be low.

Methods

We developed a dynamic model for the heterosexual transmission of Human Papillomavirus types 16 and 18, which are covered by available vaccines. A deterministic model was used with stratification on gender, age and sexual behavior. Immunity obtained from vaccination was taken into account. The model was calibrated using French data of cervical cancer incidence.

Results

In view of current vaccine coverage and screening, we expected a 32% and 83% reduction in the incidence of cervical cancers due to HPV 16/18, after 20 years and 50 years of vaccine introduction respectively. Vaccine coverage and screening rates were assumed to be constant. However, increasing vaccine coverage in women or vaccinating girls before 14 showed a better impact on cervical cancer incidence. On the other hand, performing vaccination in men improves the effect on cervical cancer incidence only moderately, compared to strategies in females only.

Conclusion

While current vaccination policies may significantly decrease cervical cancer incidence, other supplementary strategies in females could be considered in order to improve vaccination efficacy.     

Sexual Behaviour and HPV Infections in 18 to 29 Year Old Women in the Pre-Vaccine Era in the Netherlands

Background

Infection with Human Papillomavirus (HPV) is a necessary event in the multi-step process of cervical carcinogenesis. Little is known about the natural history of HPV infection among unscreened young adults. As prophylactic vaccines are being developed to prevent specifically HPV 16 and 18 infections, shifts in prevalence in the post vaccine era may be expected. This study provides a unique opportunity to gather baseline data before changes by nationwide vaccination occur.

Methods and Principal Findings

This cross-sectional study is part of a large prospective epidemiologic study performed among 2065 unscreened women aged 18 to 29 years. Women returned a self-collected cervico-vaginal specimen and filled out a questionnaire. All HPV DNA-positive samples (by SPF₁₀ DEIA) were genotyped using the INNO-LiPA HPV genotyping assay. HPV point prevalence in this sample was 19%. Low and high risk HPV prevalence was 9.1% and 11.8%, respectively. A single HPV-type was detected in 14.9% of all women, while multiple types were found in 4.1%. HPV-types 16 (2.8%) and 18 (1.4%) were found concomitantly in only 3 women (0.1%). There was an increase in HPV prevalence till 22 years. Multivariate analysis showed that number of lifetime sexual partners was the most powerful predictor of HPV positivity, followed by type of relationship, frequency of sexual contact, age, and number of sexual partners over the past 6 months.

Conclusions and Significance

This study shows that factors independently associated with HPV prevalence are mainly related to sexual behaviour. Combination of these results with the relative low prevalence of HPV 16 and/or 18 may be promising for expanding the future target group for catch up vaccination. Furthermore, these results provide a basis for research on possible future shifts in HPV genotype prevalence, and enable a better estimate of the effect of HPV 16-18 vaccination on cervical cancer incidence.     

Modeling HIV Vaccines in Brazil: Assessing the Impact of a Future HIV Vaccine on Reducing New Infections,Mortality and Number of People Receiving ARV

Background

The AIDS epidemic in Brazil remains concentrated in populations with high vulnerability to HIV infection, and the development of an HIV vaccine could make an important contribution to prevention. This study modeled the HIV epidemic and estimated the potential impact of an HIV vaccine on the number of new infections, deaths due to AIDS and the number of people receiving ARV treatment, under various scenarios.

Methods and Findings

The historical HIV prevalence was modeled using Spectrum and projections were made from 2010 to 2050 to study the impact of an HIV vaccine with 40% to 70% efficacy, and 80% coverage of adult population, specific groups such as MSM, IDU, commercial sex workers and their partners, and 15 year olds. The possibility of disinhibition after vaccination, neglecting medium- and high-risk groups, and a disease-modifying vaccine were also considered. The number of new infections and deaths were reduced by 73% and 30%, respectively, by 2050, when 80% of adult population aged 15–49 was vaccinated with a 40% efficacy vaccine. Vaccinating medium- and high-risk groups reduced new infections by 52% and deaths by 21%. A vaccine with 70% efficacy produced a great decline in new infections and deaths. Neglecting medium- and high-risk population groups as well as disinhibition of vaccinated population reduced the impact or even increased the number of new infections. Disease-modifying vaccine also contributed to reducing AIDS deaths, the need for ART and new HIV infections.

Conclusions

Even in a country with a concentrated epidemic and high levels of ARV coverage, such as Brazil, moderate efficacy vaccines as part of a comprehensive package of treatment and prevention could have a major impact on preventing new HIV infections and AIDS deaths, as well as reducing the number of people on ARV. Targeted vaccination strategies may be highly effective and cost-beneficial.     

The cost-effectiveness and value of information of three influenza vaccination dosing strategies for individuals with human immunodeficiency virus

Background

Influenza vaccine immunogenicity is diminished in patients living with HIV/AIDS. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness and expected value of perfect information (EVPI) of three alternative influenza vaccine dosing strategies intended to increase immunogenicity in those patients.

Methods

A randomized, multi-centered, controlled, vaccine trial was conducted at 12 CIHR Canadian HIV Trials Network sites. Three dosing strategies with seasonal, inactivated trivalent, non-adjuvanted intramuscular vaccine were used in HIV infected adults: two standard doses over 28 days (Strategy A), two double doses over 28 days (Strategy B) and a single standard dose of influenza vaccine (Strategy C), administered prior to the 2008 influenza season. The comparator in our analysis was practice in the previous year, in which 82.8% of HIV/AIDS received standard-dose vaccination (Strategy D). A Markov cohort model was developed to estimate the monthly probability of Influenza-like Illness (ILI) over one influenza season. Costs and quality-adjusted life years, extrapolated to the lifetime of the hypothetical study cohorts, were estimated in calculating incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) and EVPI in conducting further research.

Results

298 patients with median CD4 of 470 cells/µl and 76% with viral load suppression were randomized. Strategy C was the most cost-effective strategy for the overall trial population and for suppressed and unsuppressed individuals. Mean ICERs for Strategy A for unsuppressed patients could also be considered cost-effective. The level of uncertainty regarding the decision to implement strategy A versus C for unsuppressed individuals was high. The maximum acceptable cost of reducing decision uncertainty in implementing strategy A for individuals with unsuppressed pVL was $418,000 - below the cost of conducting a larger-scale trial.

Conclusion

Our results do not support a policy to implement increased antigen dose or booster dosing strategies with seasonal, inactivated trivalent, non-adjuvanted intramuscular vaccine for individuals with HIV in Canada.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT00764998","term_id":"NCT00764998"}}NCT00764998.     

Optimizing vaccine allocation at different points in time during an epidemic

Background

Pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 began spreading around the globe in April of 2009 and vaccination started in October of 2009. In most countries, by the time vaccination started, the second wave of pandemic H1N1 2009 was already under way. With limited supplies of vaccine, we are left to question whether it may be a good strategy to vaccinate the high-transmission groups earlier in the epidemic, but it might be a better use of resources to protect instead the high-risk groups later in the epidemic. To answer this question, we develop a deterministic epidemic model with two age-groups (children and adults) and further subdivide each age group in low and high risk.

Methods and Findings

We compare optimal vaccination strategies started at various points in time in two different settings: a population in a developed country where children account for 24% of the population, and a population in a less developed country where children make up the majority of the population, 55%. For each of these populations, we minimize mortality or hospitalizations and we find an optimal vaccination strategy that gives the best vaccine allocation given a starting vaccination time and vaccine coverage level. We find that population structure is an important factor in determining the optimal vaccine distribution. Moreover, the optimal policy is dynamic as there is a switch in the optimal vaccination strategy at some time point just before the peak of the epidemic. For instance, with 25% vaccine coverage, it is better to protect the high-transmission groups before this point, but it is optimal to protect the most vulnerable groups afterward.

Conclusions

Choosing the optimal strategy before or early in the epidemic makes an important difference in minimizing the number of influenza infections, and consequently the number of influenza deaths or hospitalizations, but the optimal strategy makes little difference after the peak.     

Immunogenicity and reactogenicity of 2009 influenza A (H1N1) inactivated monovalent non-adjuvanted vaccine in elderly and immunocompromised patients

Background

Immunosuppressed individuals present serious morbidity and mortality from influenza, therefore it is important to understand the safety and immunogenicity of influenza vaccination among them.

Methods

This multicenter cohort study evaluated the immunogenicity and reactogenicity of an inactivated, monovalent, non-adjuvanted pandemic (H1N1) 2009 vaccine among the elderly, HIV-infected, rheumatoid arthritis (RA), cancer, kidney transplant, and juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) patients. Participants were included during routine clinical visits, and vaccinated according to conventional influenza vaccination schedules. Antibody response was measured by the hemagglutination-inhibition assay, before and 21 days after vaccination.

Results

319 patients with cancer, 260 with RA, 256 HIV-infected, 149 elderly individuals, 85 kidney transplant recipients, and 83 with JIA were included.The proportions of seroprotection, seroconversion, and the geometric mean titer ratios postvaccination were, respectively: 37.6%, 31.8%, and 3.2 among kidney transplant recipients, 61.5%, 53.1%, and 7.5 among RA patients, 63.1%, 55.7%, and 5.7 among the elderly, 59.0%, 54.7%, and 5.9 among HIV-infected patients, 52.4%, 49.2%, and 5.3 among cancer patients, 85.5%, 78.3%, and 16.5 among JIA patients. The vaccine was well tolerated, with no reported severe adverse events.

Conclusions

The vaccine was safe among all groups, with an acceptable immunogenicity among the elderly and JIA patients, however new vaccination strategies should be explored to improve the immune response of immunocompromised adult patients. (ClinicalTrials.gov, {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT01218685","term_id":"NCT01218685"}}NCT01218685)     

Knowledge and acceptability of pap smears, self-sampling and HPV vaccination among adult women in Kenya

Objectives

Our study aimed to assess adult women’s knowledge of human papillomavirus (HPV) and cervical cancer, and characterize their attitudes towards potential screening and prevention strategies.

Methods

Women were participants of an HIV-discordant couples cohort in Nairobi, Kenya. An interviewer-administered questionnaire was used to obtain information on sociodemographic status, and sexual and medical history at baseline and on knowledge and attitudes towards Pap smears, self-sampling, and HPV vaccination at study exit.

Results

Only 14% of the 409 women (67% HIV-positive; median age 29 years) had ever had a Pap smear prior to study enrollment and very few women had ever heard of HPV (18%). Although most women knew that Pap smears detect cervical cancer (69%), very few knew that routine Pap screening is the main way to prevent ICC (18%). Most women reported a high level of cultural acceptability for Pap smear screening and a low level of physical discomfort during Pap smear collection. In addition, over 80% of women reported that they would feel comfortable using a self-sampling device (82%) and would prefer at-home sample collection (84%). Nearly all women (94%) reported willingness to be vaccinated to prevent cervical cancer if offered at no or low cost.

Conclusions

These findings highlight the need to educate women on routine use of Pap smears in the prevention of cervical cancer and demonstrate that vaccination and self-sampling would be acceptable modalities for cervical cancer prevention and screening.     

Increasing Incidence of Pediatric Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus in Southeastern Wisconsin: Relationship with Body Weight at Diagnosis

Introduction

Several studies have confirmed the increasing rate of type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) in children and the link with increasing BMI at diagnosis termed the ‘accelerator hypothesis’. Our objective was to assess whether changing incidence of type 1 diabetes in a group of children and adolescent from the Midwest United States was associated with changes in BMI.

Methods

Data from 1618 (52.1% M/47.9% F) newly-diagnosed children and adolescents (<19 years) with T1DM, admitted to Children''s Hospital of Wisconsin (CHW) between January 1995 and December 2004, was analyzed in relationship to body mass index (BMI) standard deviation score (SDS).

Results

An overall, 10-year cumulative incidence of 27.92 per 100,000 (19.12 to 41.72/100,000) was observed, with an average yearly cumulative incidence of 2.39%. The increase was largest in the younger age groups, 0–4, 5–9, and 10–14 having an average yearly increase of 2.4, 2.3, and 3.0%, respectively, corresponding to a relative 10-year increase of 25.3, 33.8, and 38.0%, respectively. Age at diagnosis was inversely correlated with BMI SDS (p<0.001) and remained significant for both males and females.

Conclusions

Annual incidence of T1DM increased two-fold at CHW over the 10-year study period. The majority of the increase was observed in the youngest age groups, which also appeared to be the heaviest. This research adds to the growing literature supporting the hypothesis that excess weight gain during childhood may be a risk factor for early manifestation of T1DM.     

Seasonal Intermittent Preventive Treatment for the Prevention of Anaemia and Malaria in Ghanaian Children: A Randomized,Placebo Controlled Trial

Background

Malaria and anaemia are the leading causes of morbidity and mortality in children in sub-Saharan Africa. We have investigated the effect of intermittent preventive treatment with sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine or artesunate plus amodiaquine on anaemia and malaria in children in an area of intense, prolonged, seasonal malaria transmission in Ghana.

Methods

2451 children aged 3–59 months from 30 villages were individually randomised to receive placebo or artesunate plus amodiaquine (AS+AQ) monthly or bimonthly, or sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) bimonthly over a period of six months. The primary outcome measures were episodes of anaemia (Hb<8.0 g/dl) or malaria detected through passive surveillance.

Findings

Monthly artesunate plus amodiaquine reduced the incidence of malaria by 69% (95% CI: 63%, 74%) and anaemia by 45% (95% CI: 25%,60%), bimonthly sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine reduced the incidence of malaria by 24% (95% CI: 14%,33%) and anaemia by 30% (95% CI: 6%, 49%) and bimonthly artesunate plus amodiaquine reduced the incidence of malaria by 17% (95% CI: 6%, 27%) and anaemia by 32% (95% CI: 7%, 50%) compared to placebo. There were no statistically significant reductions in the episodes of all cause or malaria specific hospital admissions in any of the intervention groups compared to the placebo group. There was no significant increase in the incidence of clinical malaria in the post intervention period in children who were >1 year old when they received IPTc compared to the placebo group. However the incidence of malaria in the post intervention period was higher in children who were <1 year old when they received AS+AQ monthly compared to the placebo group.

Interpretation

IPTc is safe and efficacious in reducing the burden of malaria in an area of Ghana with a prolonged, intense malaria transmission season.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT00119132","term_id":"NCT00119132"}}NCT00119132     

Incidence of H1N1 2009 virus infection through the analysis of paired plasma specimens among blood donors, France

Background

Knowledge of the age-specific prevalence of seroprotection and incidence of seroconversion infection is necessary to complement clinical surveillance data and statistical models. It provides the basis for estimating the future impact of influenza A (H1N1pdm09) and implementing appropriate prevention and response strategies.

Methods

Using a cross-sectional design, two-stage stratified sampling and paired plasma samples, we estimated the age-specific prevalence of a protective level of H1N1pdm09 antibodies in the French adult population before and after the 2009/10 pandemic, and the proportion of those susceptible that seroconverted due to infection, from a single sample of 1,936 blood donors aged 20–70 years in mainland France in June 2010. Samples with a haemagglutination inhibition (HI) titre ≥1∶40 were considered seropositive, and seroconversion due to infection was defined as a 4-fold increase in titre in the absence of H1N1pdm09 vaccination or pre-pandemic seropositivity.

Results

Out of the 1,936 donors, 1,708 were included in the analysis. Seroprevalence before the pandemic was 6.7% (95% CI 5.0, 8.9) with no significant differences by age-group (p = 0.3). Seroprevalence afterwards was 23.0% (95% CI 17.7, 29.3) with 20–29 year olds having a higher level than older groups (p<0.001). Seroconversion due to infection was 12.2% (95% CI 6.9, 20.5). Younger age-group, vaccination against H1N1 and being seropositive before the pandemic were strongly associated with post-pandemic seropositivity.

Conclusions

Before the 2009/2010 winter influenza season, only 6.7% of the French mainland population aged 20–70 had a level of antibodies usually considered protective. During the first pandemic wave, 12.2% of the population seroconverted due to infection and the seroprevalence after the wave rose to 23%, either due to prepandemic seropositivity, infection or vaccination. This relatively low latter figure contributed to an extension of target groups for influenza vaccination for the 2010/2011 season.     

When Can Antibiotic Treatments for Trachoma Be Discontinued? Graduating Communities in Three African Countries

Background

Repeated mass azithromycin distributions are effective in controlling the ocular strains of chlamydia that cause trachoma. However, it is unclear when treatments can be discontinued. Investigators have proposed graduating communities when the prevalence of infection identified in children decreases below a threshold. While this can be tested empirically, results will not be available for years. Here we use a mathematical model to predict results with different graduation strategies in three African countries.

Methods

A stochastic model of trachoma transmission was constructed, using the parameters with the maximum likelihood of obtaining results observed from studies in Tanzania (with 16% infection in children pre-treatment), The Gambia (9%), and Ethiopia (64%). The expected prevalence of infection at 3 years was obtained, given different thresholds for graduation and varying the characteristics of the diagnostic test.

Results

The model projects that three annual treatments at 80% coverage would reduce the mean prevalence of infection to 0.03% in Tanzanian, 2.4% in Gambian, and 12.9% in the Ethiopian communities. If communities graduate when the prevalence of infection falls below 5%, then the mean prevalence at 3 years with the new strategy would be 0.3%, 3.9%, and 14.4%, respectively. Graduations reduced antibiotic usage by 63% in Tanzania, 56% in The Gambia, and 11% in Ethiopia.

Conclusion

Models suggest that graduating communities from a program when the infection is reduced to 5% is a reasonable strategy and could reduce the amount of antibiotic distributed in some areas by more than 2-fold.     

Bottlenecks for High Coverage of Intermittent Preventive Treatment in Pregnancy: The Case of Adolescent Pregnancies in Rural Burkina Faso

Background

While IPTp-SP is currently being scaled up in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), the coverage with the required ≥2 doses of SP remains considerably short of the Roll Back Malaria (RBM) goal of 80%, not to mention of the recently advocated universal coverage.

Methods

The study triangulates quantitative data from a health center randomized community-based trial on IPTp-SP effectiveness and the additional benefit of a promotional campaign with qualitative data from focused ethnography.

Findings

In rural Burkina Faso, despite the significantly higher risk of malaria infection among adolescent primigravidae (PG) (OR 2.44 95%CI 1.81–3.28, p<0.001), making them primary target beneficiaries of IPTp-SP, adolescents adhered to the required three or more ANC visits significantly less (PG: 46.6%; SG 43.7%) than adults (PG: 61.9%; SG 54.9%) and had lower SP uptake during the malaria transmission season, further showing the difficulty of reaching this age group. Adolescents'' structural constraints (such as their social position and household labor requirements) and needs (such as anonymity in the health encounter) leave them highly vulnerable during their pregnancies and, especially, during the high malaria transmission season.

Conclusion

Our study shows that adolescents need to be targeted specifically, prior to their first pregnancy and with measures adapted to their social context, addressing their structural constraints and needs and going beyond standard health promotion campaigns. Unless such specific measures are taken, adolescents'' social vulnerability will present a serious bottleneck for the effectiveness of IPTi-SP.     

Measles Outbreak in South Africa: Epidemiology of Laboratory-Confirmed Measles Cases and Assessment of Intervention, 2009–2011

Background

Since 1995, measles vaccination at nine and 18 months has been routine in South Africa; however, coverage seldom reached >95%. We describe the epidemiology of laboratory-confirmed measles case-patients and assess the impact of the nationwide mass vaccination campaign during the 2009 to 2011 measles outbreak in South Africa.

Methods

Serum specimens collected from patients with suspected-measles were tested for measles-specific IgM antibodies using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and genotypes of a subset were determined. To estimate the impact of the nationwide mass vaccination campaign, we compared incidence in the seven months pre- (1 September 2009–11 April 2010) and seven months post-vaccination campaign (24 May 2010–31 December 2010) periods in seven provinces of South Africa.

Results

A total of 18,431 laboratory-confirmed measles case-patients were reported from all nine provinces of South Africa (cumulative incidence 37 per 100,000 population). The highest cumulative incidence per 100,000 population was in children aged <1 year (603), distributed as follows: <6 months (302/100,000), 6 to 8 months (1083/100,000) and 9 to 11 months (724/100,000). Forty eight percent of case-patients were ≥5 years (cumulative incidence 54/100,000). Cumulative incidence decreased with increasing age to 2/100,000 in persons ≥40 years. A single strain of measles virus (genotype B3) circulated throughout the outbreak. Prior to the vaccination campaign, cumulative incidence in the targeted vs. non-targeted age group was 5.9-fold higher, decreasing to 1.7 fold following the campaign (P<0.001) and an estimated 1,380 laboratory-confirmed measles case-patients were prevented.

Conclusion

We observed a reduction in measles incidence following the nationwide mass vaccination campaign even though it was conducted approximately one year after the outbreak started. A booster dose at school entry may be of value given the high incidence in persons >5 years.