Moving toward an unstable equilibrium: saddle nodes in population systems

1. We identify an unstable equilibrium with a two-dimensional stable manifold and a one-dimensional unstable manifold in a three-state variable (larva, pupa, adult) insect population growth model.
2. The saddle node forecasts that the time series of some initial numbers of larvae, pupae and adults are drawn closely to the unstable equilibrium before approaching the asymptotic stable attractor (a two-cycle), while the time series of other initial points are not.
3. Using two quantitative indices, we examine time series from a Tribolium experiment for evidence of the predicted saddle node. We conclude that a saddle node accounts for the transient dynamics in these data and for the differences between the transient behaviour of different replicates of the same experiment.     

Modeling human postural sway using an intermittent control and hemodynamic perturbations

Ground reaction force during human quiet stance is modulated synchronously with the cardiac cycle through hemodynamics [1]. This almost periodic hemodynamic force induces a small disturbance torque to the ankle joint, which is considered as a source of endogenous perturbation that induces postural sway. Here we consider postural sway dynamics of an inverted pendulum model with an intermittent control strategy, in comparison with the traditional continuous-time feedback controller. We examine whether each control model can exhibit human-like postural sway, characterized by its power law behavior at the low frequency band 0.1–0.7 Hz, when it is weakly perturbed by periodic and/or random forcing mimicking the hemodynamic perturbation. We show that the continuous control model with typical feedback gain parameters hardly exhibits the human-like sway pattern, in contrast with the intermittent control model. Further analyses suggest that deterministic, including chaotic, slow oscillations that characterize the intermittent control strategy, together with the small hemodynamic perturbation, could be a possible mechanism for generating the postural sway.     

The Influence of Diabetic Peripheral Neuropathy on Local Postural Muscle and Central Sensory Feedback Balance Control

Poor balance control and increased fall risk have been reported in people with diabetic peripheral neuropathy (DPN). Traditional body sway measures are unable to describe underlying postural control mechanism. In the current study, we used stabilogram diffusion analysis to examine the mechanism under which balance is altered in DPN patients under local-control (postural muscle control) and central-control (postural control using sensory cueing). DPN patients and healthy age-matched adults over 55 years performed two 15-second Romberg balance trials. Center of gravity sway was measured using a motion tracker system based on wearable inertial sensors, and used to derive body sway and local/central control balance parameters. Eighteen DPN patients (age = 65.4±7.6 years; BMI = 29.3±5.3 kg/m²) and 18 age-matched healthy controls (age = 69.8±2.9; BMI = 27.0±4.1 kg/m²) with no major mobility disorder were recruited. The rate of sway within local-control was significantly higher in the DPN group by 49% (healthy local-control_slope = 1.23±1.06×10^-2 cm²/sec, P<0.01), which suggests a compromised local-control balance behavior in DPN patients. Unlike local-control, the rate of sway within central-control was 60% smaller in the DPN group (healthy central-control_slope-Log = 0.39±0.23, P<0.02), which suggests an adaptation mechanism to reduce the overall body sway in DPN patients. Interestingly, significant negative correlations were observed between central-control rate of sway with neuropathy severity (r _Pearson = 0.65-085, P<0.05) and the history of diabetes (r _Pearson = 0.58-071, P<0.05). Results suggest that in the lack of sensory feedback cueing, DPN participants were highly unstable compared to controls. However, as soon as they perceived the magnitude of sway using sensory feedback, they chose a high rigid postural control strategy, probably due to high concerns for fall, which may increase the energy cost during extended period of standing; the adaptation mechanism using sensory feedback depends on the level of neuropathy and the history of diabetes.     

Local and global bifurcations at infinity in models of glycolytic oscillations

 We investigate two models of glycolytic oscillations. Each model consists of two coupled nonlinear ordinary differential equations. Both models are found to have a saddle point at infinity and to exhibit a saddle-node bifurcation at infinity, giving rise to a second saddle and a stable node at infinity. Depending on model parameters, a stable limit cycle may blow up to infinite period and amplitude and disappear in the bifurcation, and after the bifurcation, the stable node at infinity then attracts all trajectories. Alternatively, the stable node at infinity may coexist with either a stable sink (not at infinity) or a stable limit cycle. This limit cycle may then disappear in a heteroclinic bifurcation at infinity in which the unstable manifold from one saddle at infinity joins the stable manifold of the other saddle at infinity. These results explain prior reports for one of the models concerning parameter values for which the system does not admit any physical (bounded) behavior. Analytic results on the scaling of amplitude and period close to the bifurcations are obtained and confirmed by numerical computations. Finally, we consider more realistic modified models where all solutions are bounded and show that some of the features stemming from the bifurcations at infinity are still present. Received 4 September 1995; received in revised form 18 September 1996     

Frequency-domain identification of the human controller

System identification techniques applied to experimental human-in-the-loop data provide an objective test of three alternative control-theoretical models of the human control system: non-predictive control, predictive control, and intermittent predictive control. A two-stage approach to the identification of a single-input single-output control system is used: first, the closed-loop frequency response is derived using the periodic property of the experimental data, followed by the fitting of a parametric model. While this approach is well-established for non-predictive and predictive control, it is here used for the first time with intermittent predictive control. This technique is applied to data from experiments with human volunteers who use one of two control strategies, focusing either on position or on velocity, to manually control a virtual, unstable load which requires sustained feedback to maintain position or low velocity. The results show firstly that the non-predictive controller does not fit the data as well as the other two models, and secondly that the predictive and intermittent predictive controllers provide equally good models which cannot be distinguished using this approach. Importantly, the second observation implies that sustained visual manual control is compatible with intermittent control, and that previous results suggesting a continuous control model for the human control system do not rule out intermittent control as an alternative hypothesis. Thirdly, the parameters identified reflect the control strategy adopted by the human controller.     

Why the Lysogenic State of Phage λ Is So Stable: A Mathematical Modeling Approach

We develop a mathematical model of the phage λ lysis/lysogeny switch, taking into account recent experimental evidence demonstrating enhanced cooperativity between the left and right operator regions. Model parameters are estimated from available experimental data. The model is shown to have a single stable steady state for these estimated parameter values, and this steady state corresponds to the lysogenic state. When the CI degradation rate (γ_cI) is slightly increased from its normal value (γ_cI 0.0 min⁻¹), two additional steady states appear (through a saddle-node bifurcation) in addition to the lysogenic state. One of these new steady states is stable and corresponds to the lytic state. The other steady state is an (unstable) saddle node. The coexistence these two globally stable steady states (the lytic and lysogenic states) is maintained with further increases of γ_cI until γ_cI 0.35 min⁻¹, when the lysogenic steady state and the saddle node collide and vanish (through a reverse saddle node bifurcation) leaving only the lytic state surviving. These results allow us to understand the high degree of stability of the lysogenic state because, normally, it is the only steady state. Further implications of these results for the stability of the phage λ switch are discussed, as well as possible experimental tests of the model.     

Spinal Mechanisms May Provide a Combination of Intermittent and Continuous Control of Human Posture: Predictions from a Biologically Based Neuromusculoskeletal Model

Several models have been employed to study human postural control during upright quiet stance. Most have adopted an inverted pendulum approximation to the standing human and theoretical models to account for the neural feedback necessary to keep balance. The present study adds to the previous efforts in focusing more closely on modelling the physiological mechanisms of important elements associated with the control of human posture. This paper studies neuromuscular mechanisms behind upright stance control by means of a biologically based large-scale neuromusculoskeletal (NMS) model. It encompasses: i) conductance-based spinal neuron models (motor neurons and interneurons); ii) muscle proprioceptor models (spindle and Golgi tendon organ) providing sensory afferent feedback; iii) Hill-type muscle models of the leg plantar and dorsiflexors; and iv) an inverted pendulum model for the body biomechanics during upright stance. The motor neuron pools are driven by stochastic spike trains. Simulation results showed that the neuromechanical outputs generated by the NMS model resemble experimental data from subjects standing on a stable surface. Interesting findings were that: i) an intermittent pattern of muscle activation emerged from this posture control model for two of the leg muscles (Medial and Lateral Gastrocnemius); and ii) the Soleus muscle was mostly activated in a continuous manner. These results suggest that the spinal cord anatomy and neurophysiology (e.g., motor unit types, synaptic connectivities, ordered recruitment), along with the modulation of afferent activity, may account for the mixture of intermittent and continuous control that has been a subject of debate in recent studies on postural control. Another finding was the occurrence of the so-called “paradoxical” behaviour of muscle fibre lengths as a function of postural sway. The simulations confirmed previous conjectures that reciprocal inhibition is possibly contributing to this effect, but on the other hand showed that this effect may arise without any anticipatory neural control mechanism.     

On-line gas analysis in animal cell cultivation: I. Control of dissolved oxygen and pH

To monitor gas reaction rates in animal cell culture at constant dissolved oxygen concentration (DO) and constant pH it was necessary to develop improved control methods. Decoupling of both controllrs was obtained by manipulation of molar fractions of oxygen and carbon dioxide in the gas phase. Two pairs of DO and pH controllers were designed and tested both in simulation and exprimental runs. The first controller pair was developed for headspace aeration only, whereas the second controller pair was designed for bubble aeration using a microsparger and flushing the headspace with helium. pH was controlled by a conventional discrete PID controller in its velocity form. For DO control two linear state space feedback controllers with parameter adaptation were established. In these controllers the oxygen uptake rate (OUR) was considered as a disturbance and was not included in the mathematical model. The feedback gain adaptation was based on the difference between the actual molar fraction of oxygen at time step n and the initial molar fraction. This difference is related to OUR and was used to increase or decrease the state feedback controller gain (k and k(1), respectively) in a slow manner. With these controllers it was possible to get an excellent online estimate of OUR. In the case of bubble aeration a simple gas phase mass balance was sufficient, whereas during the headspace aeration a liquid phase balance was required. It has been shown that determination of OUR using gas balance requires a significantly better controller performance compared to just keeping DO and pH within reasonable limits. (c) 1995 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Reproduction numbers and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission

A precise definition of the basic reproduction number, , is presented for a general compartmental disease transmission model based on a system of ordinary differential equations. It is shown that, if , then the disease free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable; whereas if , then it is unstable. Thus, is a threshold parameter for the model. An analysis of the local centre manifold yields a simple criterion for the existence and stability of super- and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for near one. This criterion, together with the definition of , is illustrated by treatment, multigroup, staged progression, multistrain and vector–host models and can be applied to more complex models. The results are significant for disease control.     

具有捕食正效应的捕食-食饵系统

在经典的捕食食饵系统中考虑到由于捕食效应对食饵种群带来的正向调节作用后,提出了具有捕食正效应的捕食-食饵系统.通过对模型的动力学行为的分析,从理论上说明了正向调节作用对系统的影响,并就第一象限内平衡点存在时的相图解释了捕食正效应的作用.结果表明:(1)捕食系统中适当的正向调节作用会增加系统的稳定性;(2)当捕食正效应达到一定的程度后系统拥有一个不稳定的极限环;(3)当捕食正效应过大时会使系统的稳定性发生变化,使捕食者种群与食饵种群同时趋向无穷,出现了调节放纵现象.这些结果在保护生物学中具有重要的意义.     

Inflection, canards and excitability threshold in neuronal models

A technique is presented, based on the differential geometry of planar curves, to evaluate the excitability threshold of neuronal models. The aim is to determine regions of the phase plane where solutions to the model equations have zero local curvature, thereby defining a zero-curvature (inflection) set that discerns between sub-threshold and spiking electrical activity. This transition can arise through a Hopf bifurcation, via the so-called canard explosion that happens in an exponentially small parameter variation, and this is typical for a large class of planar neuronal models (FitzHugh–Nagumo, reduced Hodgkin–Huxley), namely, type II neurons (resonators). This transition can also correspond to the crossing of the stable manifold of a saddle equilibrium, in the case of type I neurons (integrators). We compute inflection sets and study how well they approximate the excitability threshold of these neuron models, that is, both in the canard and in the non-canard regime, using tools from invariant manifold theory and singularity theory. With the latter, we investigate the topological changes that inflection sets undergo upon parameter variation. Finally, we show that the concept of inflection set gives a good approximation of the threshold in both the so-called resonator and integrator neuronal cases.     

Intermittent control: a computational theory of human control

The paradigm of continuous control using internal models has advanced understanding of human motor control. However, this paradigm ignores some aspects of human control, including intermittent feedback, serial ballistic control, triggered responses and refractory periods. It is shown that event-driven intermittent control provides a framework to explain the behaviour of the human operator under a wider range of conditions than continuous control. Continuous control is included as a special case, but sampling, system matched hold, an intermittent predictor and an event trigger allow serial open-loop trajectories using intermittent feedback. The implementation here may be described as ??continuous observation, intermittent action??. Beyond explaining unimodal regulation distributions in common with continuous control, these features naturally explain refractoriness and bimodal stabilisation distributions observed in double stimulus tracking experiments and quiet standing, respectively. Moreover, given that human control systems contain significant time delays, a biological-cybernetic rationale favours intermittent over continuous control: intermittent predictive control is computationally less demanding than continuous predictive control. A standard continuous-time predictive control model of the human operator is used as the underlying design method for an event-driven intermittent controller. It is shown that when event thresholds are small and sampling is regular, the intermittent controller can masquerade as the underlying continuous-time controller and thus, under these conditions, the continuous-time and intermittent controller cannot be distinguished. This explains why the intermittent control hypothesis is consistent with the continuous control hypothesis for certain experimental conditions.     

Multiple attractors and boundary crises in a tri-trophic food chain

The asymptotic behaviour of a model of a tri-trophic food chain in the chemostat is analysed in detail. The Monod growth model is used for all trophic levels, yielding a non-linear dynamical system of four ordinary differential equations. Mass conservation makes it possible to reduce the dimension by 1 for the study of the asymptotic dynamic behaviour. The intersections of the orbits with a Poincaré plane, after the transient has died out, yield a two-dimensional Poincaré next-return map. When chaotic behaviour occurs, all image points of this next-return map appear to lie close to a single curve in the intersection plane. This motivated the study of a one-dimensional bi-modal, non-invertible map of which the graph resembles this curve. We will show that the bifurcation structure of the food chain model can be understood in terms of the local and global bifurcations of this one-dimensional map. Homoclinic and heteroclinic connecting orbits and their global bifurcations are discussed also by relating them to their counterparts for a two-dimensional map which is invertible like the next-return map. In the global bifurcations two homoclinic or two heteroclinic orbits collide and disappear. In the food chain model two attractors coexist; a stable limit cycle where the top-predator is absent and an interior attractor. In addition there is a saddle cycle. The stable manifold of this limit cycle forms the basin boundary of the interior attractor. We will show that this boundary has a complicated structure when there are heteroclinic orbits from a saddle equilibrium to this saddle limit cycle. A homoclinic bifurcation to a saddle limit cycle will be associated with a boundary crisis where the chaotic attractor disappears suddenly when a bifurcation parameter is varied. Thus, similar to a tangent local bifurcation for equilibria or limit cycles, this homoclinic global bifurcation marks a region in the parameter space where the top-predator goes extinct. The 'Paradox of Enrichment' says that increasing the concentration of nutrient input can cause destabilization of the otherwise stable interior equilibrium of a bi-trophic food chain. For a tri-trophic food chain enrichment of the environment can even lead to extinction of the highest trophic level.     

Modeling and Analyzing the Transmission Dynamics of HBV Epidemic in Xinjiang,China

Hepatitis B is an infectious disease caused by the hepatitis B virus (HBV) which affects livers. In this paper, we formulate a hepatitis B model to study the transmission dynamics of hepatitis B in Xinjiang, China. The epidemic model involves an exponential birth rate and vertical transmission. For a better understanding of HBV transmission dynamics, we analyze the dynamic behavior of the model. The modified reproductive number σ is obtained. When σ < 1, the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable, when σ > 1, the disease-free equilibrium is unstable and the disease is uniformly persistent. In the simulation, parameters are chosen to fit public data in Xinjiang. The simulation indicates that the cumulated HBV infection number in Xinjiang will attain about 600,000 cases unless there are stronger or more effective control measures by the end of 2017. Sensitive analysis results show that enhancing the vaccination rate for newborns in Xinjiang is very effective to stop the transmission of HBV. Hence, we recommend that all infants in Xinjiang receive the hepatitis B vaccine as soon as possible after birth.     

A model of beta-cell mass, insulin, and glucose kinetics: pathways to diabetes

Diabetes is a disease of the glucose regulatory system that is associated with increased morbidity and early mortality. The primary variables of this system are beta-cell mass, plasma insulin concentrations, and plasma glucose concentrations. Existing mathematical models of glucose regulation incorporate only glucose and/or insulin dynamics. Here we develop a novel model of beta -cell mass, insulin, and glucose dynamics, which consists of a system of three nonlinear ordinary differential equations, where glucose and insulin dynamics are fast relative to beta-cell mass dynamics. For normal parameter values, the model has two stable fixed points (representing physiological and pathological steady states), separated on a slow manifold by a saddle point. Mild hyperglycemia leads to the growth of the beta -cell mass (negative feedback) while extreme hyperglycemia leads to the reduction of the beta-cell mass (positive feedback). The model predicts that there are three pathways in prolonged hyperglycemia: (1) the physiological fixed point can be shifted to a hyperglycemic level (regulated hyperglycemia), (2) the physiological and saddle points can be eliminated (bifurcation), and (3) progressive defects in glucose and/or insulin dynamics can drive glucose levels up at a rate faster than the adaptation of the beta -cell mass which can drive glucose levels down (dynamical hyperglycemia).     

Breaking an Epigenetic Chromatin Switch: Curious Features of Hysteresis in Saccharomyces cerevisiae Telomeric Silencing

In addition to gene network switches, local epigenetic modifications to DNA and histones play an important role in all-or-none cellular decision-making. Here, we study the dynamical design of a well-characterized epigenetic chromatin switch: the yeast SIR system, in order to understand the origin of the stability of epigenetic states. We study hysteresis in this system by perturbing it with a histone deacetylase inhibitor. We find that SIR silencing has many characteristics of a non-linear bistable system, as observed in conventional genetic switches, which are based on activities of a few promoters affecting each other through the abundance of their gene products. Quite remarkably, our experiments in yeast telomeric silencing show a very distinctive pattern when it comes to the transition from bistability to monostability. In particular, the loss of the stable silenced state, upon increasing the inhibitor concentration, does not seem to show the expected saddle node behavior, instead looking like a supercritical pitchfork bifurcation. In other words, the ‘off’ state merges with the ‘on’ state at a threshold concentration leading to a single state, as opposed to the two states remaining distinct up to the threshold and exhibiting a discontinuous jump from the ‘off’ to the ‘on’ state. We argue that this is an inevitable consequence of silenced and active regions coexisting with dynamic domain boundaries. The experimental observations in our study therefore have broad implications for the understanding of chromatin silencing in yeast and beyond.     

Non-linear stimulus-response behavior of the human stance control system is predicted by optimization of a system with sensory and motor noise

We developed a theory of human stance control that predicted (1) how subjects re-weight their utilization of proprioceptive and graviceptive orientation information in experiments where eyes closed stance was perturbed by surface-tilt stimuli with different amplitudes, (2) the experimentally observed increase in body sway variability (i.e. the “remnant” body sway that could not be attributed to the stimulus) with increasing surface-tilt amplitude, (3) neural controller feedback gains that determine the amount of corrective torque generated in relation to sensory cues signaling body orientation, and (4) the magnitude and structure of spontaneous body sway. Responses to surface-tilt perturbations with different amplitudes were interpreted using a feedback control model to determine control parameters and changes in these parameters with stimulus amplitude. Different combinations of internal sensory and/or motor noise sources were added to the model to identify the properties of noise sources that were able to account for the experimental remnant sway characteristics. Various behavioral criteria were investigated to determine if optimization of these criteria could predict the identified model parameters and amplitude-dependent parameter changes. Robust findings were that remnant sway characteristics were best predicted by models that included both sensory and motor noise, the graviceptive noise magnitude was about ten times larger than the proprioceptive noise, and noise sources with signal-dependent properties provided better explanations of remnant sway. Overall results indicate that humans dynamically weight sensory system contributions to stance control and tune their corrective responses to minimize the energetic effects of sensory noise and external stimuli.