Prevention of the Recurrence of Anaemia in Gambian Children Following Discharge from Hospital

Background

In malaria endemic countries, children who have experienced an episode of severe anaemia are at increased risk of a recurrence of anaemia. There is a need to find ways of protecting these at risk children from malaria and chemoprevention offers a potential way of achieving this objective.

Methods

During the 2003 and 2004 malaria transmission seasons, 1200 Gambian children with moderate or severe anaemia (Hb concentration <7 g/dL) were randomised to receive either monthly sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) or placebo until the end of the malaria transmission season in which they were enrolled, in a double-blind trial. All study subjects were treated with oral iron for 28 days and morbidity was monitored through surveillance at health centres. The primary endpoint was the proportion of children with moderate or severe anaemia at the end of the transmission season. Secondary endpoints included the incidence of clinical episodes of malaria during the surveillance period, outpatient attendances, the prevalence of parasitaemia and splenomegaly, nutritional status at the end of the malaria transmission season and compliance with the treatment regimen.

Results

The proportions of children with a Hb concentration of <7 g/dL at the end of the malaria transmission season were similar in the two study groups, 14/464 (3.0%) in children who received at least one dose of SP and 16/471 (3.4%) in those who received placebo, prevalence ratio 0.89 (0.44,1.8) P = 0.742. The protective efficacy of SP against episodes of clinical malaria was 53% (95% CI 37%, 65%). Treatment with SP was safe and well tolerated; no serious adverse events related to SP administration were observed. Mortality following discharge from hospital was low among children who received SP or placebo (6 in the SP group and 9 in the placebo group respectively).

Conclusions

Intermittent treatment with SP did not reduce the proportion of previously anaemic children with moderate or severe anaemia at the end of the malaria season, although it prevented malaria. The combination of appropriate antimalarial treatment plus one month of iron supplementation and good access to healthcare during follow-up proved effective in restoring haemoglobin to an acceptable level in the Gambian setting.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT00131716","term_id":"NCT00131716"}}NCT00131716     

Importance of Coverage and Endemicity on the Return of Infectious Trachoma after a Single Mass Antibiotic Distribution

Background

As part of the SAFE strategy, mass antibiotic treatments are useful in controlling the ocular strains of chlamydia that cause trachoma. The World Health Organization recommends treating at least 80% of individuals per community. However, the role of antibiotic coverage for trachoma control has been poorly characterized.

Methodology/Principal Findings

In a collection of cluster-randomized clinical trials, mass oral azithromycin was administered to 40 villages in Ethiopia. The village prevalence of ocular chlamydia was determined before treatment, and at two and six months post-treatment. The mean prevalence of ocular chlamydia was 48.9% (95% CI 42.8 to 55.0%) before mass treatments, decreased to 5.4% (95% CI 3.9 to 7.0%) at two months after treatments (p<0.0001), and returned to 7.9% (95% CI 5.4 to 10.4%) by six months after treatment (p = 0.03). Antibiotic coverage ranged from 73.9% to 100%, with a mean of 90.6%. In multivariate regression models, chlamydial prevalence two months after treatment was associated with baseline infection (p<0.0001) and antibiotic coverage (p = 0.007). However, by six months after treatment, chlamydial prevalence was associated only with baseline infection (p<0.0001), but not coverage (p = 0.31).

Conclusions/Significance

In post-hoc analyses of a large clinical trial, the amount of endemic chlamydial infection was a strong predictor of chlamydial infection after mass antibiotic treatments. Antibiotic coverage was an important short-term predictor of chlamydial infection, but no longer predicted infection by six months after mass antibiotic treatments. A wider range of antibiotic coverage than found in this study might allow an assessment of a more subtle association.     

Mass Treatment with Azithromycin for Trachoma Control: Participation Clusters in Households

Background

Mass treatment to trachoma endemic communities is a critical part of the World Health Organization SAFE strategy. However, non-participation may not be at random, affecting coverage surveys and effectiveness if infection is differential.

Methodology/Principal Findings

As part of the Partnership for Rapid Elimination of Trachoma (PRET), 32 communities in Tanzania, and 48 in The Gambia had a detailed census taken followed by mass treatment with azithromycin. The target coverage in each community was >80% of children ages <10 years. Community treatment assistants observed treatment and recorded compliance, thus coverage at the community, household, and individual level could be determined. Within each community, we determined the actual proportions of households where all, some, or none of the children were treated. Assuming the coverage in children <10 years of the community was as observed and non-participation was at random, we did 500 simulations to derive expected proportions of households where all, some, or none of the children were treated. Clustering of household treatment was detected comparing greater-than-expected proportions of households where none or all of children were treated, and the intraclass correlation (ICC) was calculated. Tanzanian and Gambian mass treatment coverages for children <10 years of age ranged from 82–100% and 62–99%, respectively. Clustering of households where all children were treated or no children were treated was greater than expected. Compared to model simulations, all Tanzanian communities and 44 of 48 (91.7%) Gambian communities had significantly higher proportions of households where all children were treated. Furthermore, 30 of 32 (93.8%) Tanzanian communities and 34 of 48 (70.8%) Gambian communities had a significantly elevated proportion of households compared to the expected proportion where no children were treated. The ICC for Tanzania was 0.77 (95% CI 0.74–0.81) and for The Gambia was 0.55 (95% CI 0.51–0.59).

Conclusions/Significance

In programs aiming for high coverage, complete compliance or non-compliance with mass treatment clusters within households. Non-compliance cannot be assumed to be at random.     

Need for Timely Paediatric HIV Treatment within Primary Health Care in Rural South Africa

Background

In areas where adult HIV prevalence has reached hyperendemic levels, many infants remain at risk of acquiring HIV infection. Timely access to care and treatment for HIV-infected infants and young children remains an important challenge. We explore the extent to which public sector roll-out has met the estimated need for paediatric treatment in a rural South African setting.

Methods

Local facility and population-based data were used to compare the number of HIV infected children accessing HAART before 2008, with estimates of those in need of treatment from a deterministic modeling approach. The impact of programmatic improvements on estimated numbers of children in need of treatment was assessed in sensitivity analyses.

Findings

In the primary health care programme of HIV treatment 346 children <16 years of age initiated HAART by 2008; 245(70.8%) were aged 10 years or younger, and only 2(<1%) under one year of age. Deterministic modeling predicted 2,561 HIV infected children aged 10 or younger to be alive within the area, of whom at least 521(20.3%) would have required immediate treatment. Were extended PMTCT uptake to reach 100% coverage, the annual number of infected infants could be reduced by 49.2%.

Conclusion

Despite progress in delivering decentralized HIV services to a rural sub-district in South Africa, substantial unmet need for treatment remains. In a local setting, very few children were initiated on treatment under 1 year of age and steps have now been taken to successfully improve early diagnosis and referral of infected infants.     

Epidemiology of HIV Infection in Large Urban Areas in the United States

Background

While the U.S. HIV epidemic continues to be primarily concentrated in urban area, local epidemiologic profiles may differ and require different approaches in prevention and treatment efforts. We describe the epidemiology of HIV in large urban areas with the highest HIV burden.

Methods/Principal Findings

We used data from national HIV surveillance for 12 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) to determine disparities in HIV diagnoses and prevalence and changes over time. Overall, 0.3% to 1% of the MSA populations were living with HIV at the end of 2007. In each MSA, prevalence was >1% among blacks; prevalence was >2% in Miami, New York, and Baltimore. Among Hispanics, prevalence was >1% in New York and Philadelphia. The relative percentage differences in 2007 HIV diagnosis rates, compared to whites, ranged from 239 (San Francisco) to 1239 (Baltimore) for blacks and from 15 (Miami) to 413 (Philadelphia) for Hispanics. The epidemic remains concentrated, with more than 50% of HIV diagnoses in 2007 attributed to male-to-male sexual contact in 7 of the 12 MSAs; heterosexual transmission surpassed or equaled male-to-male sexual transmission in Baltimore, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC. Yet in several MSAs, including Baltimore and Washington, DC, AIDS diagnoses increased among men-who-have sex with men in recent years.

Conclusions/Significance

These data are useful to identify local drivers of the epidemic and to tailor public health efforts for treatment and prevention services for people living with HIV.     

HIV Prevalence and Associated Risk Factors among Individuals Aged 13-34 Years in Rural Western Kenya

Objectives

To estimate HIV prevalence and characterize risk factors among young adults in Asembo, rural western Kenya.

Design

Community-based cross-sectional survey.

Methods

From a demographic surveillance system, we selected a random sample of residents aged 13-34 years, who were contacted at home and invited to a nearby mobile study site. Consent procedures for non-emancipated minors required assent and parental consent. From October 2003 - April 2004, consenting participants were interviewed on risk behavior and tested for HIV and HSV-2. HIV voluntary counseling and testing was offered.

Results

Of 2606 eligible residents, 1822 (70%) enrolled. Primary reasons for refusal included not wanting blood taken, not wanting to learn HIV status, and partner/parental objection.Females comprised 53% of 1762 participants providing blood. Adjusted HIV prevalence was 15.4% overall: 20.5% among females and 10.2% among males. HIV prevalence was highest in women aged 25-29 years (36.5%) and men aged 30-34 years (41.1%). HSV-2 prevalence was 40.0% overall: 53% among females, 25.8% among males. In multivariate models stratified by gender and marital status, HIV infection was strongly associated with age, higher number of sex partners, widowhood, and HSV-2 seropositivity.

Conclusions

Asembo has extremely high HIV and HSV-2 prevalence, and probable high incidence, among young adults. Further research on circumstances around HIV acquisition in young women and novel prevention strategies (vaccines, microbicides, pre-exposure prophylaxis, HSV-2 prevention, etc.) are urgently needed.     

Adjusting HIV Prevalence for Survey Non-Response Using Mortality Rates: An Application of the Method Using Surveillance Data from Rural South Africa

Background

The main source of HIV prevalence estimates are household and population-based surveys; however, high refusal rates may hinder the interpretation of such estimates. The study objective was to evaluate whether population HIV prevalence estimates can be adjusted for survey non-response using mortality rates.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Data come from the longitudinal Africa Centre Demographic Information System (ACDIS), in rural South Africa. Mortality rates for persons tested and not tested in the 2005 HIV surveillance were available from routine household surveillance. Assuming HIV status among individuals contacted but who refused to test (non-response) is missing at random and mortality among non-testers can be related to mortality of those tested a mathematical model was developed. Non-parametric bootstrapping was used to estimate the 95% confidence intervals around the estimates. Mortality rates were higher among untested (16.9 per thousand person-years) than tested population (11.6 per thousand person-years), suggesting higher HIV prevalence in the former. Adjusted HIV prevalence for females (15–49 years) was 31.6% (95% CI 26.1–37.1) compared to observed 25.2% (95% CI 24.0–26.4). For males (15–49 years) adjusted HIV prevalence was 19.8% (95% CI 14.8–24.8), compared to observed 13.2% (95% CI 12.1–14.3). For both sexes (15–49 years) combined, adjusted prevalence was 27.5% (95% CI 23.6–31.3), and observed prevalence was 19.7% (95% CI 19.6–21.3). Overall, observed prevalence underestimates the adjusted prevalence by around 7 percentage points (37% relative difference).

Conclusions/Significance

We developed a simple approach to adjust HIV prevalence estimates for survey non-response. The approach has three features that make it easy to implement and effective in adjusting for selection bias than other approaches. Further research is needed to assess this approach in populations with widely available HIV treatment (ART).     

Ageing,the Urban-Rural Gap and Disability Trends: 19 Years of Experience in China - 1987 to 2006

Background

As the age of a population increases, so too does the rate of disability. In addition, disability is likely to be more common in rural compared with urban areas. The present study aimed to examine the influence of rapid population changes in terms of age and rural/urban residence on the prevalence of disability.

Methods

Data from the 1987 and 2006 China Sampling Surveys on Disability were used to estimate the impacts of rapid ageing and the widening urban-rural gap on the prevalence of disability. Stratum specific rates of disability were estimated by 5-year age-group and type of residence. The decomposition of rates method was used to calculate the rate difference for each stratum between the two surveys.

Results

The crude disability rate increased from 4.89% in 1987 to 6.39% in 2006, a 1.5% increase over the 19 year period. However, after the compositional effects from the overall rates of changing age-structure in 1987 and 2006 were eliminated by standardization, the disability rate in 1987 was 6.13%, which is higher than that in 2006 (5.91%). While in 1987 the excess due to rural residence compared with urban was <1.0%, this difference increased to >1.5% by 2006, suggesting a widening disparity by type of residence. When rates were decomposed, the bulk of the disability could be attributed to ageing, and very little to rural residence. However, a wider gap in prevalence between rural and urban areas could be observed in some age groups by 2006.

Conclusion

The increasing number of elderly disabled persons in China and the widening discrepancy of disability prevalence between urban and rural areas may indicate that the most important priorities for disability prevention in China are to reinforce health promotion in older adults and improve health services in rural communities.     

Seasonal Intermittent Preventive Treatment for the Prevention of Anaemia and Malaria in Ghanaian Children: A Randomized,Placebo Controlled Trial

Background

Malaria and anaemia are the leading causes of morbidity and mortality in children in sub-Saharan Africa. We have investigated the effect of intermittent preventive treatment with sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine or artesunate plus amodiaquine on anaemia and malaria in children in an area of intense, prolonged, seasonal malaria transmission in Ghana.

Methods

2451 children aged 3–59 months from 30 villages were individually randomised to receive placebo or artesunate plus amodiaquine (AS+AQ) monthly or bimonthly, or sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) bimonthly over a period of six months. The primary outcome measures were episodes of anaemia (Hb<8.0 g/dl) or malaria detected through passive surveillance.

Findings

Monthly artesunate plus amodiaquine reduced the incidence of malaria by 69% (95% CI: 63%, 74%) and anaemia by 45% (95% CI: 25%,60%), bimonthly sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine reduced the incidence of malaria by 24% (95% CI: 14%,33%) and anaemia by 30% (95% CI: 6%, 49%) and bimonthly artesunate plus amodiaquine reduced the incidence of malaria by 17% (95% CI: 6%, 27%) and anaemia by 32% (95% CI: 7%, 50%) compared to placebo. There were no statistically significant reductions in the episodes of all cause or malaria specific hospital admissions in any of the intervention groups compared to the placebo group. There was no significant increase in the incidence of clinical malaria in the post intervention period in children who were >1 year old when they received IPTc compared to the placebo group. However the incidence of malaria in the post intervention period was higher in children who were <1 year old when they received AS+AQ monthly compared to the placebo group.

Interpretation

IPTc is safe and efficacious in reducing the burden of malaria in an area of Ghana with a prolonged, intense malaria transmission season.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT00119132","term_id":"NCT00119132"}}NCT00119132     

Reduction and Return of Infectious Trachoma in Severely Affected Communities in Ethiopia

Background

Antibiotics are a major tool in the WHO''s trachoma control program. Even a single mass distribution reduces the prevalence of the ocular chlamydia that causes trachoma. Unfortunately, infection returns after a single treatment, at least in severely affected areas. Here, we test whether additional scheduled treatments further reduce infection, and whether infection returns after distributions are discontinued.

Methods

Sixteen communities in Ethiopia were randomly selected. Ocular chlamydial infection in 1- to 5-year-old children was monitored over four biannual azithromycin distributions and for 24 months after the last treatment.

Findings

The average prevalence of infection in 1- to 5-year-old children was reduced from 63.5% pre-treatment to 11.5% six months after the first distribution (P<0.0001). It further decreased to 2.6% six months after the fourth and final treatment (P = 0.0004). In the next 18 months, infection returned to 25.2%, a significant increase from six months after the last treatment (P = 0.008), but still far lower than baseline (P<0.0001). Although the prevalence of infection in any particular village fluctuated, the mean prevalence of the 16 villages steadily decreased with each treatment and steadily returned after treatments were discontinued.

Conclusion

In some of the most severely affected communities ever studied, we demonstrate that repeated mass oral azithromycin distributions progressively reduce ocular chlamydial infection in a community, as long as these distributions are given frequently enough and at a high enough coverage. However, infection returns into the communities after the last treatment. Sustainable changes or complete local elimination of infection will be necessary.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT00221364","term_id":"NCT00221364"}}NCT00221364     

Using the Prevalence of Individual Species of Intestinal Nematode Worms to Estimate the Combined Prevalence of Any Species

Objectives

To assess if a probabilistic model could be used to estimate the combined prevalence of infection with any species of intestinal nematode worm when only the separate prevalence of each species is reported, and to estimate the extent to which simply taking the highest individual species prevalence underestimates the combined prevalence.

Methods

Data were extracted from community surveys that reported both the proportion infected with individual species and the combined proportion infected, for a minimum sample of 100 individuals. The predicted combined proportion infected was calculated based on the assumption that the probability of infection with one species was independent of infection with another species, so the probability of combined infections was multiplicative.

Findings

Thirty-three reports describing 63 data sets from surveys conducted in 20 countries were identified. A strong correlation was found between the observed and predicted combined proportion infected (r = 0.996, P<0.001). When the observed and predicted values were plotted against each other, a small correction of the predicted combined prevalence by dividing by a factor of 1.06 achieved a near perfect correlation between the two sets of values. The difference between the single highest species prevalence and the observed combined prevalence was on average 7% or smaller at a prevalence of ≤40%, but at prevalences of 40–80%, the difference was about 12%.

Conclusions

A simple probabilistic model of combined infection with a small correction factor is proposed as a novel method to estimate the number of individuals that would benefit from mass deworming when data are reported only for separate species.     

Prevalence of Depression in a Large Urban South Indian Population — The Chennai Urban Rural Epidemiology Study (Cures – 70)

Background

In India there are very few population based data on prevalence of depression. The aim of the study was to determine the prevalence of depression in an urban south Indian population.

Methods and Findings

Subjects were recruited from the Chennai Urban Rural Epidemiology Study (CURES), involving 26,001 subjects randomly recruited from 46 of the 155 corporation wards of Chennai (formerly Madras) city in South India. 25,455 subjects participated in this study (response rate 97.9%). Depression was assessed using a self-reported and previously validated instrument, the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ) – 12. Age adjustment was made according to the 2001 census of India. The overall prevalence of depression was 15.1% (age-adjusted, 15.9%) and was higher in females (females 16.3% vs. males 13.9%, p<0.0001). The odds ratio (OR) for depression in female subjects was 1.20 [Confidence Intervals (CI): 1.12–1.28, p<0.001] compared to male subjects. Depressed mood was the most common symptom (30.8%), followed by tiredness (30.0%) while more severe symptoms such as suicidal thoughts (12.4%) and speech and motor retardation (12.4%) were less common. There was an increasing trend in the prevalence of depression with age among both female (p<0.001) and male subjects (p<0.001). The prevalence of depression was higher in the low income group (19.3%) compared to the higher income group (5.9%, p<0.001). Prevalence of depression was also higher among divorced (26.5%) and widowed (20%) compared to currently married subjects (15.4%, p<0.001).

Conclusions

This is the largest population-based study from India to report on prevalence of depression and shows that among urban south Indians, the prevalence of depression was 15.1%. Age, female gender and lower socio-economic status are some of the factors associated with depression in this population.     

Socioeconomic Inequality in the Prevalence of Autism Spectrum Disorder: Evidence from a U.S. Cross-Sectional Study

Background

This study was designed to evaluate the hypothesis that the prevalence of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) among children in the United States is positively associated with socioeconomic status (SES).

Methods

A cross-sectional study was implemented with data from the Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring Network, a multiple source surveillance system that incorporates data from educational and health care sources to determine the number of 8-year-old children with ASD among defined populations. For the years 2002 and 2004, there were 3,680 children with ASD among a population of 557 689 8-year-old children. Area-level census SES indicators were used to compute ASD prevalence by SES tertiles of the population.

Results

Prevalence increased with increasing SES in a dose-response manner, with prevalence ratios relative to medium SES of 0.70 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.64, 0.76) for low SES, and of 1.25 (95% CI 1.16, 1.35) for high SES, (P<0.001). Significant SES gradients were observed for children with and without a pre-existing ASD diagnosis, and in analyses stratified by gender, race/ethnicity, and surveillance data source. The SES gradient was significantly stronger in children with a pre-existing diagnosis than in those meeting criteria for ASD but with no previous record of an ASD diagnosis (p<0.001), and was not present in children with co-occurring ASD and intellectual disability.

Conclusions

The stronger SES gradient in ASD prevalence in children with versus without a pre-existing ASD diagnosis points to potential ascertainment or diagnostic bias and to the possibility of SES disparity in access to services for children with autism. Further research is needed to confirm and understand the sources of this disparity so that policy implications can be drawn. Consideration should also be given to the possibility that there may be causal mechanisms or confounding factors associated with both high SES and vulnerability to ASD.     

A Regional Initiative to Reduce Skin Infections amongst Aboriginal Children Living in Remote Communities of the Northern Territory,Australia

Background

Linked to extreme rates of chronic heart and kidney disease, pyoderma is endemic amongst Aboriginal children in Australia''s Northern Territory (NT). Many of those with pyoderma will also have scabies. We report the results of a community-based collaboration within the East Arnhem Region, which aimed to reduce the prevalence of both skin infections in Aboriginal children.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Commencing September 2004, we conducted an ecological study that included active surveillance for skin infections amongst children aged <15 years in five remote East Arnhem communities over a three year period. Screening was undertaken by trained local community workers, usually accompanied by another project team member, using a standard data collection form. Skin infections were diagnosed clinically with the aid of a pictorial flip chart developed for the purpose. Topical 5% permethrin was provided for age-eligible children and all household contacts whenever scabies was diagnosed, whilst those with pyoderma were referred to the clinic for treatment in accordance with current guidelines. In addition, annual mass scabies treatment (5% permethrin cream) was offered to all community residents in accordance with current guidelines but was not directly observed. Pyoderma and scabies prevalence per month was determined from 6038 skin assessments conducted on 2329 children. Pyoderma prevalence dropped from 46.7% at baseline to a median of 32.4% (IQR 28.9%–41.0%) during the follow-up period – an absolute reduction of 14.7% (IQR 4.7%–16.8%). Compared to the first 18 months of observation, there was an absolute reduction in pyoderma prevalence of 18 cases per 100 children (95%CI −21.0, −16.1, p≤0.001) over the last 18 months. Treatment uptake increased over the same period (absolute difference 13.4%, 95%CI 3.3, 23.6). While scabies prevalence was unchanged, the prevalence of infected scabies (that is with superimposed pyoderma) decreased from 3.7% (95%CI 2.4, 4.9) to 1.5% (95%CI 0.7, 2.2), a relative reduction of 59%.

Conclusion

Although pyoderma prevalence remained unacceptably high, there was a substantial reduction overall with improvements in treatment uptake a critical factor. More acceptable alternatives, such as cotrimoxazole for pyoderma and ivermectin as a community-wide scabicide, warrant further investigation in these settings. We are encouraged by progress made through this work, where local action was led by local community members and primary health care providers with external training and support.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT00884728","term_id":"NCT00884728"}}NCT00884728     

Accuracy of the Interpretation of Chest Radiographs for the Diagnosis of Paediatric Pneumonia

Introduction

World Health Organization (WHO) radiological classification remains an important entry criterion in epidemiological studies of pneumonia in children. We report inter-observer variability in the interpretation of 169 chest radiographs in children suspected of having pneumonia.

Methods

An 18-month prospective aetiological study of pneumonia was undertaken in Northern England. Chest radiographs were performed on eligible children aged ≤16 years with clinical features of pneumonia. The initial radiology report was compared with a subsequent assessment by a consultant cardiothoracic radiologist. Chest radiographic changes were categorised according to the WHO classification.

Results

There was significant disagreement (22%) between the first and second reports (kappa = 0.70, P<0.001), notably in those aged <5 years (26%, kappa = 0.66, P<0.001). The most frequent sources of disagreement were the reporting of patchy and perihilar changes.

Conclusion

This substantial inter-observer variability highlights the need for experts from different countries to create a consensus to review the radiological definition of pneumonia in children.     

Two-Week versus Six-Month Sampling Interval in a Short-Term Natural History Study of Oral HPV Infection in an HIV-Positive Cohort

Background

Oral HPV infections detected six-months apart were compared to those detected bi-weekly, in an HIV-positive cohort, during the intervening months to elucidate systematic biases introduced into natural history studies by sampling interval.

Methods

Fourteen consecutive oral rinse samples were collected every two weeks for six months from an HIV-positive cohort (n = 112) and evaluated for the presence of 37 HPV types. The cumulative probability of type-specific HPV detection at visits 1 through 14 was determined as a function of infection categorized at visits 1 and 14 as persistent, newly detected, cleared or absent. Transition models were used to evaluate the effect of HPV viral load (measured by RT-PCR for HPV 16, 18, 31, 33, 35) on infection persistence.

Results

The average point prevalence of oral HPV infection was similar at two-week and six-month sampling intervals (45% vs. 47%, p = 0.52), but cumulative prevalence was higher with the former (82% vs. 53%, p<0.001) as was the cumulative prevalence of type-specific infections (9.3% vs 3.8%, p<0.0001). Type-specific infections persistent under a six-month sampling interval had a high probability (0.93, 95%CI 0.83–0.98) of detection at 50% or more of the intervening visits and infections that were absent had a high probability (0.94, 95% CI 0.93–0.95) of no interval detection. The odds of detection at any visit significantly increased for each unit increase in HPV viral load at the previous visit.

Conclusions

Six-month sampling is appropriate to model factors associated with type-specific oral HPV infection persistence but may misclassify HPV-exposed individuals as unexposed.     

Incidence of Malaria and Efficacy of Combination Antimalarial Therapies over 4 Years in an Urban Cohort of Ugandan Children

Background

Combination therapies are now recommended to treat uncomplicated malaria. We used a longitudinal design to assess the incidence of malaria and compare the efficacies of 3 combination regimens in Kampala, Uganda.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Children aged 1–10 years were enrolled from randomly selected households in 2004–05 and 2007, and were followed at least monthly through 2008. Insecticide-treated bednets (ITNs) were provided in 2006. Children were randomized upon their first episode, and then treated for all episodes of uncomplicated malaria with amodiaquine/sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (AQ/SP), artesunate/amodiaquine (AS/AQ), or artemether/lumefantrine (AL). Risks of parasitological failure were determined for each episode of uncomplicated malaria and clinical parameters were followed. A total of 690 children experienced 1464 episodes of malaria. 96% of these episodes were uncomplicated malaria and treated with study drugs; 94% were due to Plasmodium falciparum. The rank order of treatment efficacy was AL > AS/AQ > AQ/SP. Failure rates increased over time for AQ/SP, but not the artemisinin-based regimens. Over the 4-year course of the study the prevalence of asymptomatic parasitemia decreased from 11.8% to 1.4%, the incidence of malaria decreased from 1.55 to 0.32 per person year, and the prevalence of anemia (hemoglobin <10 gm/dL) decreased from 5.9% to 1.0%. No episodes of severe malaria (based on WHO criteria) and no deaths were seen.

Conclusions/Significance

With ready access to combination therapies and distribution of ITNs, responses were excellent for artemisinin-containing regimens, severe malaria was not seen, and the incidence of malaria and prevalence of parasitemia and anemia decreased steadily over time.

Trial Registration

isrctn.org ISRCTN37517549     

Estimated HIV Trends and Program Effects in Botswana

Background

This study uses surveillance, survey and program data to estimate past trends and current levels of HIV in Botswana and the effects of treatment and prevention programs.

Methods/Principal Findings

Data from sentinel surveillance at antenatal clinics and a national population survey were used to estimate the trend of adult HIV prevalence from 1980 to 2007. Using the prevalence trend we estimated the number of new adult infections, the transmission from mothers to children, the need for treatment and the effects of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and adult and child deaths. Prevalence has declined slowly in urban areas since 2000 and has remained stable in rural areas. National prevalence is estimated at 26% (25–27%) in 2007. About 330,000 (318,000–335,000) people are infected with HIV including 20,000 children. The number of new adult infections has been stable for several years at about 20,000 annually (12,000–26,000). The number of new child infections has declined from 4600 in 1999 to about 890 (810–980) today due to nearly complete coverage of an effective program to prevent mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT). The annual number of adult deaths has declined from a peak of over 15,500 in 2003 to under 7400 (5000–11,000) today due to coverage of ART that reaches over 80% in need. The need for ART will increase by 60% by 2016.

Conclusions

Botswana''s PMTCT and treatment programs have achieved significant results in preventing new child infections and deaths among adults and children. The number of new adult infections continues at a high level. More effective prevention efforts are urgently needed.     

Tuberculosis Infection among Young Nursing Trainees in South India

Background

Among healthcare workers in developing countries, nurses spend a large amount of time in direct contact with tuberculosis (TB) patients, and are at high risk for acquisition of TB infection and disease. To better understand the epidemiology of nosocomial TB among nurses, we recruited a cohort of young nursing trainees at Christian Medical College, a large, tertiary medical school hospital in Southern India.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Among 535 nursing students enrolled in 2007, 468 gave consent to participate, and 436 underwent two-step tuberculin skin testing (TST). A majority (95%) were females, and almost 80% were under 22 years of age. Detailed TB exposure information was obtained using interviews and clinical log books. Prevalence of latent TB infection (LTBI) was estimated using Bayesian latent class analyses (LCA). Logistic regression analyses were done to determine the association between LTBI prevalence and TB exposure and risk factors. 219 of 436 students (50.2%, 95% CI: 45.4–55.0) were TST positive using the 10 mm or greater cut-off. Based on the LCA, the prevalence of LTBI was 47.8% (95% credible interval 17.8% to 65.6%). In the multivariate analysis, TST positivity was strongly associated with time spent in health care, after adjusting for age at entry into healthcare.

Conclusions

Our study showed a high prevalence of LTBI even in young nursing trainees. With the recent TB infection control (TBIC) policy guidance from the World Health Organization as the reference, Indian healthcare providers and the Indian Revised National TB Control Programme will need to implement TBIC interventions, and enhance capacity for TBIC at the country level. Young trainees and nurses, in particular, will need to be targeted for TBIC interventions.