The wisdom of stalemates: consensus and clustering as filtering mechanisms for improving collective accuracy

Groups of organisms, from bacteria to fish schools to human societies, depend on their ability to make accurate decisions in an uncertain world. Most models of collective decision-making assume that groups reach a consensus during a decision-making bout, often through simple majority rule. In many natural and sociological systems, however, groups may fail to reach consensus, resulting in stalemates. Here, we build on opinion dynamics and collective wisdom models to examine how stalemates may affect the wisdom of crowds. For simple environments, where individuals have access to independent sources of information, we find that stalemates improve collective accuracy by selectively filtering out incorrect decisions (an effect we call stalemate filtering). In complex environments, where individuals have access to both shared and independent information, this effect is even more pronounced, restoring the wisdom of crowds in regions of parameter space where large groups perform poorly when making decisions using majority rule. We identify network properties that tune the system between consensus and accuracy, providing mechanisms by which animals, or evolution, could dynamically adjust the collective decision-making process in response to the reward structure of the possible outcomes. Overall, these results highlight the adaptive potential of stalemate filtering for improving the decision-making abilities of group-living animals.     

Collective Learning and Optimal Consensus Decisions in Social Animal Groups

Learning has been studied extensively in the context of isolated individuals. However, many organisms are social and consequently make decisions both individually and as part of a collective. Reaching consensus necessarily means that a single option is chosen by the group, even when there are dissenting opinions. This decision-making process decouples the otherwise direct relationship between animals'' preferences and their experiences (the outcomes of decisions). Instead, because an individual''s learned preferences influence what others experience, and therefore learn about, collective decisions couple the learning processes between social organisms. This introduces a new, and previously unexplored, dynamical relationship between preference, action, experience and learning. Here we model collective learning within animal groups that make consensus decisions. We reveal how learning as part of a collective results in behavior that is fundamentally different from that learned in isolation, allowing grouping organisms to spontaneously (and indirectly) detect correlations between group members'' observations of environmental cues, adjust strategy as a function of changing group size (even if that group size is not known to the individual), and achieve a decision accuracy that is very close to that which is provably optimal, regardless of environmental contingencies. Because these properties make minimal cognitive demands on individuals, collective learning, and the capabilities it affords, may be widespread among group-living organisms. Our work emphasizes the importance and need for theoretical and experimental work that considers the mechanism and consequences of learning in a social context.     

The Curious Anomaly of Skewed Judgment Distributions and Systematic Error in the Wisdom of Crowds

Judgment distributions are often skewed and we know little about why. This paper explains the phenomenon of skewed judgment distributions by introducing the augmented quincunx (AQ) model of sequential and probabilistic cue categorization by neurons of judges. In the process of developing inferences about true values, when neurons categorize cues better than chance, and when the particular true value is extreme compared to what is typical and anchored upon, then populations of judges form skewed judgment distributions with high probability. Moreover, the collective error made by these people can be inferred from how skewed their judgment distributions are, and in what direction they tilt. This implies not just that judgment distributions are shaped by cues, but that judgment distributions are cues themselves for the wisdom of crowds. The AQ model also predicts that judgment variance correlates positively with collective error, thereby challenging what is commonly believed about how diversity and collective intelligence relate. Data from 3053 judgment surveys about US macroeconomic variables obtained from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and the Wall Street Journal provide strong support, and implications are discussed with reference to three central ideas on collective intelligence, these being Galton''s conjecture on the distribution of judgments, Muth''s rational expectations hypothesis, and Page''s diversity prediction theorem.     

When Does Diversity Trump Ability (and Vice Versa) in Group Decision Making? A Simulation Study

It is often unclear which factor plays a more critical role in determining a group's performance: the diversity among members of the group or their individual abilities. In this study, we addressed this "diversity vs. ability" issue in a decision-making task. We conducted three simulation studies in which we manipulated agents' individual ability (or accuracy, in the context of our investigation) and group diversity by varying (1) the heuristics agents used to search task-relevant information (i.e., cues); (2) the size of their groups; (3) how much they had learned about a good cue search order; and (4) the magnitude of errors in the information they searched. In each study, we found that a manipulation reducing agents' individual accuracy simultaneously increased their group's diversity, leading to a conflict between the two. These conflicts enabled us to identify certain conditions under which diversity trumps individual accuracy, and vice versa. Specifically, we found that individual accuracy is more important in task environments in which cues differ greatly in the quality of their information, and diversity matters more when such differences are relatively small. Changing the size of a group and the amount of learning by an agent had a limited impact on this general effect of task environment. Furthermore, we found that a group achieves its highest accuracy when there is an intermediate amount of errors in the cue information, regardless of the environment and the heuristic used, an effect that we believe has not been previously reported and warrants further investigation.     

Leadership,consensus decision making and collective behaviour in humans

This paper reviews the literature on leadership in vertebrate groups, including recent work on human groups, before presenting the results of three new experiments looking at leadership and decision making in small and large human groups. In experiment 1, we find that both group size and the presence of uninformed individuals can affect the speed with which small human groups (eight people) decide between two opposing directional preferences and the likelihood of the group splitting. In experiment 2, we show that the spatial positioning of informed individuals within small human groups (10 people) can affect the speed and accuracy of group motion. We find that having a mixture of leaders positioned in the centre and on the edge of a group increases the speed and accuracy with which the group reaches their target. In experiment 3, we use large human crowds (100 and 200 people) to demonstrate that the trends observed from earlier work using small human groups can be applied to larger crowds. We find that only a small minority of informed individuals is needed to guide a large uninformed group. These studies build upon important theoretical and empirical work on leadership and decision making in animal groups.     

Shared or unshared consensus decision in macaques?

Members of a social group have to make collective decisions in order to synchronise their activities. In a shared consensus decision, all group members can take part in the decision whereas in an unshared consensus decision, one individual, usually a dominant member of the group, takes the decision for the rest of the group. It has been suggested that the type of decision-making of a species could be influenced by its social style. To investigate this further, we studied collective movements in two species with opposed social systems, the Tonkean macaque (Macaca tonkeana) and the rhesus macaque (Macaca mulatta). From our results, it appears that the decision to move is the result of the choices and actions of several individuals in both groups. However, this consensus decision involved nearly all group members in Tonkean macaques whereas dominant and old individuals took a prominent role in rhesus macaques. Thus, we suggest that Tonkean macaques display equally shared consensus decisions to move, whereas in the same context rhesus macaque exhibit partially shared consensus decisions. Such a difference in making a collective decision might be linked to the different social systems of the two studied species.     

Dynamic choices are most accurate in small groups

According to the classic results of Galton and Condorcet, as well as in modern decision-making models, accuracy in groups increases with group size. However, these studies do not consider the naturally occurring situation in which individuals dynamically re-evaluate their decision with a possible change of opinion. The dynamics of re-evaluation in groups are very different to individual re-evaluation because individuals influence the group and the group influences the individual. We find that individual accuracy in a group is higher when individuals re-evaluate because all members have more access to social information, while in single decisions, those deciding first have less. This improvement is smaller in large groups as in this case errors can cascade across the members of the group before re-evaluation can correct them. The net result is a maximal accuracy at a small group size. We also analyzed the case in which individuals are influenced only by a small number of the other individuals. In this case, cascading errors affect the interacting subgroups but are very unlikely to reach the whole group. This results in a local optimum at a small group size but also an optimum at a very large size. We thus suggest that re-evaluation dynamics can make small and very large groups optimal. Also, features that may be seen as limitations, like an influence from only a small number of individuals, may turn to be beneficial when considering local animal interactions, here filtering out cascading of errors in the group when reconsideration dynamics takes place.     

The effect of boldness on decision-making in barnacle geese is group-size-dependent

In group-living species, decisions made by individuals may result in collective behaviours. A central question in understanding collective behaviours is how individual variation in phenotype affects collective behaviours. However, how the personality of individuals affects collective decisions in groups remains poorly understood. Here, we investigated the role of boldness on the decision-making process in different-sized groups of barnacle geese. Naive barnacle geese, differing in boldness score, were introduced in a labyrinth in groups with either one or three informed demonstrators. The demonstrators possessed information about the route through the labyrinth. In pairs, the probability of choosing a route prior to the informed demonstrator increased with increasing boldness score: bolder individuals decided more often for themselves where to go compared with shyer individuals, whereas shyer individuals waited more often for the demonstrators to decide and followed this information. In groups of four individuals, however, there was no effect of boldness on decision-making, suggesting that individual differences were less important with increasing group size. Our experimental results show that personality is important in collective decisions in pairs of barnacle geese, and suggest that bolder individuals have a greater influence over the outcome of decisions in groups.     

Interspecific shared collective decision-making in two forensically important species

To date, the study of collective behaviour has mainly focused on intraspecific situations: the collective decision-making of mixed-species groups involving interspecific aggregation–segregation has received little attention. Here, we show that, in both conspecific and heterospecific groups, the larvae of two species (Lucilia sericata and Calliphora vomitoria, calliphorid carrion-feeding flies) were able to make a collective choice. In all groups, the choice was made within a few minutes and persisted throughout the period of the experiment. The monitoring of a focal individual within a group showed that these aggregations were governed by attractive and retentive effects of the group. Furthermore, the similarity observed between the conspecific and heterospecific groups suggested the existence of shared aggregation signals. The group size was found to have a stronger influence than the species of necrophagous larvae. These results should be viewed in relation to the well-known correlation between group size and heat generation. This study provides the first experimental examination of the dynamics of collective decision-making in mixed-species groups of invertebrates, contributing to our understanding of the cooperation–competition phenomenon in animal social groups.     

A simple threshold rule is sufficient to explain sophisticated collective decision-making

Decision-making animals can use slow-but-accurate strategies, such as making multiple comparisons, or opt for simpler, faster strategies to find a 'good enough' option. Social animals make collective decisions about many group behaviours including foraging and migration. The key to the collective choice lies with individual behaviour. We present a case study of a collective decision-making process (house-hunting ants, Temnothorax albipennis), in which a previously proposed decision strategy involved both quality-dependent hesitancy and direct comparisons of nests by scouts. An alternative possible decision strategy is that scouting ants use a very simple quality-dependent threshold rule to decide whether to recruit nest-mates to a new site or search for alternatives. We use analytical and simulation modelling to demonstrate that this simple rule is sufficient to explain empirical patterns from three studies of collective decision-making in ants, and can account parsimoniously for apparent comparison by individuals and apparent hesitancy (recruitment latency) effects, when available nests differ strongly in quality. This highlights the need to carefully design experiments to detect individual comparison. We present empirical data strongly suggesting that best-of-n comparison is not used by individual ants, although individual sequential comparisons are not ruled out. However, by using a simple threshold rule, decision-making groups are able to effectively compare options, without relying on any form of direct comparison of alternatives by individuals. This parsimonious mechanism could promote collective rationality in group decision-making.     

Complex Dynamics Based on a Quorum: Decision-Making Process by Cockroaches in a Patchy Environment

In the absence of complex communication and a global knowledge of the environment, cockroaches are able to assess the availability of resources and to reach a consensual decision: the group aggregates in a single resting site. We show that the aggregation dynamics and the collective shelter selection of cockroaches are influenced by their social context as, unlike single individuals, groups of cockroaches are more likely to respond to environmental heterogeneities. The decision of individuals to stay under a shelter relies on the modulation of their resting time, according to the perception of two local cues: (1) the shelters luminosity and (2) the number of congeners. This study on the cockroach species Periplaneta americana highlights a shelter-selection mechanism based on an amplification process resulting from the interactions between congeners. This mechanism leads to complex spatiotemporal aggregation dynamics characterized by transient bimodality, bifurcation patterns (shelter selection) and the existence of a quorum size in the settlement behaviour of the cockroaches. Finally, we discuss the generic aspect for other gregarious species of the collective decision-making process demonstrated for cockroaches.     

Collective Intelligence Meets Medical Decision-Making: The Collective Outperforms the Best Radiologist

While collective intelligence (CI) is a powerful approach to increase decision accuracy, few attempts have been made to unlock its potential in medical decision-making. Here we investigated the performance of three well-known collective intelligence rules (“majority”, “quorum”, and “weighted quorum”) when applied to mammography screening. For any particular mammogram, these rules aggregate the independent assessments of multiple radiologists into a single decision (recall the patient for additional workup or not). We found that, compared to single radiologists, any of these CI-rules both increases true positives (i.e., recalls of patients with cancer) and decreases false positives (i.e., recalls of patients without cancer), thereby overcoming one of the fundamental limitations to decision accuracy that individual radiologists face. Importantly, we find that all CI-rules systematically outperform even the best-performing individual radiologist in the respective group. Our findings demonstrate that CI can be employed to improve mammography screening; similarly, CI may have the potential to improve medical decision-making in a much wider range of contexts, including many areas of diagnostic imaging and, more generally, diagnostic decisions that are based on the subjective interpretation of evidence.     

Collective Decision-Making in Homing Pigeons: Larger Flocks Take Longer to Decide but Do Not Make Better Decisions

Social animals routinely are challenged to make consensus decisions about movement directions and routes. However, the underlying mechanisms facilitating such decision-making processes are still poorly known. A prominent question is how group members participate in group decisions. We addressed this question by examining how flocks of homing pigeons (Columba livia) decide their homing direction. We released newly formed flocks varying in size and determined the time taken to choose a homing direction (decision-making period) and the accuracy of that choice. We found that the decision-making period increases exponentially with flock size, which is consistent with a participatory decision-making process. We additionally found that there is no effect of flock size on the accuracy of the decisions made, which does not match with current theory for democratic choices of flight directions. Our combined results are better explained by a participatory choice of leaders that subsequently undertake the flock directional decisions. However, this decision-making model would only entirely fit with our results if leaders were chosen based on traits other than their navigational experience. Our study provides rare empirical evidence elucidating decision-making processes in freely moving groups of animals.     

Where Next? Group Coordination and Collective Decision Making by Primates

Primate groups need to remain coordinated in their activities and collectively decide when and where to travel if they are to accrue the benefits and minimize the costs of sociality. The achievement of coordinated activity and group decision making therefore has important implications for individual survival and reproduction. The aim of this special issue is to bring together a collection of empirical, theoretical, and commentary articles by primatologists studying this rapidly expanding topic. In this article, we introduce the contributions within the special issue and provide a background to the topic. We begin by focusing on decisions that involve a collective transition between a resting and a moving state, a transition we term making the move. We examine whether specific predeparture behaviors seen during transitions represent intentional processes or more simple response facilitation. Next we classify decisions according to the contribution of individual group members, and describe how, and why, certain individuals can have a disproportionate influence over group-mates?? behavior. We then review how primate groups make decisions on the move. In particular, we focus on how variability in group size and spatial organization helps or hinders information transmission and coordination. We end with a discussion of new tools and methodology that will allow future investigators to address some outstanding questions in primate coordination and decision-making research. We conclude that a better integration of concepts and terminology, along with a focus on how individuals integrate environmental and social information, will be critical to developing a satisfactory understanding of collective patterns of behavior in primate systems.     

Collective decision‐making and fission–fusion dynamics: a conceptual framework

Sociality exists in an extraordinary range of ecological settings. For individuals to accrue the benefits associated with social interactions, they are required to maintain a degree of spatial and temporal coordination in their activities, and make collective decisions. Such coordination and decision‐making has been the focus of much recent research. However, efforts largely have been directed toward understanding patterns of collective behaviour in relatively stable and cohesive groups. Less well understood is how fission–fusion dynamics mediate the process and outcome of collective decisions making. Here, we aim to apply established concepts and knowledge to highlight the implications of fission–fusion dynamics for collective decisions, presenting a conceptual framework based on the outcome of a small‐group discussion INCORE meeting (funded by the European Community's Sixth Framework Programme). First, we discuss how the degree of uncertainty in the environment shapes social flexibility and therefore the types of decisions individuals make in different social settings. Second, we propose that the quality of social relationships and the energetic needs of each individual influence fission decisions. Third, we explore how these factors affect the probability of individuals to fuse. Fourth, we discuss how group size and fission–fusion dynamics may affect communication processes between individuals at a local or global scale to reach a consensus or to fission. Finally, we offer a number of suggestions for future research, capturing emerging ideas and concepts on the interaction between collective decisions and fission–fusion dynamics.     

Detection vs. selection: integration of genetic,epigenetic and environmental cues in fluctuating environments

There are many inputs during development that influence an organism's fit to current or upcoming environments. These include genetic effects, transgenerational epigenetic influences, environmental cues and developmental noise, which are rarely investigated in the same formal framework. We study an analytically tractable evolutionary model, in which cues are integrated to determine mature phenotypes in fluctuating environments. Environmental cues received during development and by the mother as an adult act as detection‐based (individually observed) cues. The mother's phenotype and a quantitative genetic effect act as selection‐based cues (they correlate with environmental states after selection). We specify when such cues are complementary and tend to be used together, and when using the most informative cue will predominate. Thus, we extend recent analyses of the evolutionary implications of subsets of these effects by providing a general diagnosis of the conditions under which detection and selection‐based influences on development are likely to evolve and coexist.     

Decision making and recognition mechanisms

Determining how individuals adjust their behaviour to maximize reproductive opportunities is fundamental to understanding the adaptive significance of behavioural variations. Such 'decision making' requires recognition mechanisms, whereby an individual evaluates cues that yield information about the potential reproductive outcomes of alternative behaviours. Here, we develop a quantitative model for understanding how individuals evaluate cues. Only when a proximate (immediate) cue predicts reproductive value more reliably than an evolved predisposition, will the cue influence an individual's decision. The model resolves some long-standing controversies in evolutionary biology involving recognition mechanisms and interpretations of behavioural decisions that were observed after manipulations of cues of parentage, kinship and mate quality.     

Learning and time‐dependent cue choice in the desert ant,Melophorus bagoti

Foraging ants are known to use multiple sources of information to return to the nest. These cue sets are employed by independent navigational systems including path integration in the case of celestial cues and vision‐based learning in the case of terrestrial landmarks and the panorama. When cue sets are presented in conflict, the Australian desert ant species, Melophorus bagoti, will choose a compromise heading between the directions dictated by the cues or, when navigating on well‐known routes, foragers choose the direction indicated by the terrestrial cues of the panorama against the dictates of celestial cues. Here, we explore the roles of learning terrestrial cues and delays since cue exposure in these navigational decisions by testing restricted foragers with differing levels of terrestrial cue experience with the maximum (180°) cue conflict. Restricted foragers appear unable to extrapolate landmark information from the nest to a displacement site 8 m away. Given only one homeward experience, foragers can successfully orient using terrestrial cues, but this experience is not sufficient to override a conflicting vector. Terrestrial cue strength increases with multiple experiences and eventually overrides the celestial cues. This appears to be a dynamic choice as foragers discount the reliability of the terrestrial cues over time, reverting back to preferring the celestial vector when the forager has an immediate vector, but the forager's last exposure to the terrestrial cues was 24 hr in the past. Foragers may be employing navigational decision making that can be predicted by the temporal weighting rule.     

From compromise to leadership in pigeon homing

A central problem faced by animals traveling in groups is how navigational decisions by group members are integrated, especially when members cannot assess which individuals are best informed or have conflicting information or interests . Pigeons are now known to recapitulate faithfully their individually distinct habitual routes home , and this provides a novel paradigm for investigating collective decisions during flight under varying levels of interindividual conflict. Using high-precision GPS tracking of pairs of pigeons, we found that if conflict between two birds' directional preferences was small, individuals averaged their routes, whereas if conflict rose over a critical threshold, either the pair split or one of the birds became the leader. Modeling such paired decision-making showed that both outcomes-compromise and leadership-could emerge from the same set of simple behavioral rules. Pairs also navigated more efficiently than did the individuals of which they were composed, even though leadership was not necessarily assumed by the more efficient bird. In the context of mass migration of birds and other animals, our results imply that simple self-organizing rules can produce behaviors that improve accuracy in decision-making and thus benefit individuals traveling in groups .     

Traffic instabilities in self-organized pedestrian crowds

In human crowds as well as in many animal societies, local interactions among individuals often give rise to self-organized collective organizations that offer functional benefits to the group. For instance, flows of pedestrians moving in opposite directions spontaneously segregate into lanes of uniform walking directions. This phenomenon is often referred to as a smart collective pattern, as it increases the traffic efficiency with no need of external control. However, the functional benefits of this emergent organization have never been experimentally measured, and the underlying behavioral mechanisms are poorly understood. In this work, we have studied this phenomenon under controlled laboratory conditions. We found that the traffic segregation exhibits structural instabilities characterized by the alternation of organized and disorganized states, where the lifetime of well-organized clusters of pedestrians follow a stretched exponential relaxation process. Further analysis show that the inter-pedestrian variability of comfortable walking speeds is a key variable at the origin of the observed traffic perturbations. We show that the collective benefit of the emerging pattern is maximized when all pedestrians walk at the average speed of the group. In practice, however, local interactions between slow- and fast-walking pedestrians trigger global breakdowns of organization, which reduce the collective and the individual payoff provided by the traffic segregation. This work is a step ahead toward the understanding of traffic self-organization in crowds, which turns out to be modulated by complex behavioral mechanisms that do not always maximize the group's benefits. The quantitative understanding of crowd behaviors opens the way for designing bottom-up management strategies bound to promote the emergence of efficient collective behaviors in crowds.