Oceanic island biogeography through the lens of the general dynamic model: assessment and prospect

The general dynamic model of oceanic island biogeography (GDM) has added a new dimension to theoretical island biogeography in recognizing that geological processes are key drivers of the evolutionary processes of diversification and extinction within remote islands. It provides a dynamic and essentially non‐equilibrium framework generating novel predictions for emergent diversity properties of oceanic islands and archipelagos. Its publication in 2008 coincided with, and spurred on, renewed attention to the dynamics of remote islands. We review progress, both in testing the GDM's predictions and in developing and enhancing ecological–evolutionary understanding of oceanic island systems through the lens of the GDM. In particular, we focus on four main themes: (i) macroecological tests using a space‐for‐time rationale; (ii) extensions of theory to islands following different patterns of ontogeny; (iii) the implications of GDM dynamics for lineage diversification and trait evolution; and (iv) the potential for downscaling GDM dynamics to local‐scale ecological patterns and processes within islands. We also consider the implications of the GDM for understanding patterns of non‐native species diversity. We demonstrate the vitality of the field of island biogeography by identifying a range of potentially productive lines for future research.     

Island biogeography theory explains the genetic diversity of a fragmented rock ptarmigan (Lagopus muta) population

The island biogeography theory is one of the major theories in ecology, and its applicability to natural systems is well documented. The core model of the theory, the equilibrium model of island biogeography, predicts that species diversity on an island is positively related to the size of the island, but negatively related by the island's distance to the mainland. In recent years, ecologists have begun to apply this model when investigating genetic diversity, arguing that genetic and species diversity might be influenced by similar ecological processes. However, most studies have focused on oceanic islands, but knowledge on how the theory applies to islands located on the mainland (e.g., mountain islands, forest islands) is scarce. In this study, we examined how the size and degree of isolation of mountain islands would affect the genetic diversity of an alpine bird, the rock ptarmigan (Lagopus muta). Within our study area, we defined the largest contiguous mountain area as the mainland, while smaller mountains surrounding the mainland were defined as islands. We found that the observed heterozygosity (H_o) was significantly higher, and the inbreeding coefficient (F_is) significantly lower, on the mainland compared to islands. There was a positive significant relationship between the unbiased expected heterozygosity (H_n.b.) and island size (log km²), but a negative significant relationship between H_o and the cost distance to the mainland. Our results are consistent with the equilibrium model of island biogeography and show that the model is well suited for investigating genetic diversity among islands, but also on islands located on the mainland.     

Island theory, matrix effects and species richness patterns in habitat fragments

Island biogeography theory, created initially to study diversity patterns on islands, is often applied to habitat fragments. A key but largely untested assumption of this application of theory is that landscape matrix species composition is non‐overlapping with that of the islands. We tested this assumption in successional old field patches in a closely mowed matrix, and because our patches are appropriately viewed as sets of contiguous habitat units we studied patterns of species richness per unit area. Previous studies at our site did not find that diversity patterns on patch ‘islands’ conformed to predictions of island biogeography theory. Our results indicate that when matrix species are removed from the patch samples, diversity patterns conform better to theory. We suggest that classical island theory remains an appropriate tool to study diversity patterns in fragmented habitats, but that allowances should be made for spill‐over colonization of ‘islands’ from the ‘sea’.     

Vicariance and marine migration in continental island populations of a frog endemic to the Atlantic Coastal forest

The theory of island biogeography is most often studied in the context of oceanic islands where all island inhabitants are descendants from founding events involving migration from mainland source populations. Far fewer studies have considered predictions of island biogeography in the case of continental islands, where island formation typically splits continuous populations and thus vicariance also contributes to the diversity of island populations. We examined one such case on continental islands in southeastern Brazil, to determine how classic island biogeography predictions and past vicariance explain the population genetic diversity of Thoropa taophora, a frog endemic to the Atlantic Coastal Forest. We used nuclear microsatellite markers to examine the genetic diversity of coastal and island populations of this species. We found that island isolation has a role in shaping the genetic diversity of continental island species, with island populations being significantly less diverse than coastal populations. However, area of the island and distance from coast had no significant effect on genetic diversity. We also found no significant differences between migration among coastal populations and migration to and from islands. We discuss how vicariance and the effects of continued migration between coastal and island populations interact to shape evolutionary patterns on continental islands.     

A general dynamic theory of oceanic island biogeography

Aim MacArthur and Wilson’s dynamic equilibrium model of island biogeography provides a powerful framework for understanding the ecological processes acting on insular populations. However, their model is known to be less successful when applied to systems and processes operating on evolutionary and geological timescales. Here, we present a general dynamic model (GDM) of oceanic island biogeography that aims to provide a general explanation of biodiversity patterns through describing the relationships between fundamental biogeographical processes – speciation, immigration, extinction – through time and in relation to island ontogeny. Location Analyses are presented for the Azores, Canaries, Galápagos, Marquesas and Hawaii. Methods We develop a theoretical argument from first principles using a series of graphical models to convey key properties and mechanisms involved in the GDM. Based on the premises (1) that emergent properties of island biotas are a function of rates of immigration, speciation and extinction, (2) that evolutionary dynamics predominate in large, remote islands, and (3) that oceanic islands are relatively short‐lived landmasses showing a characteristic humped trend in carrying capacity (via island area, topographic variation, etc.) over their life span, we derive a series of predictions concerning biotic properties of oceanic islands. We test a subset of these predictions using regression analyses based largely on data sets for native species and single‐island endemics (SIEs) for particular taxa from each archipelago, and using maximum island age estimates from the literature. The empirical analyses test the power of a simple model of diversity derived from the GDM: the log(Area) + Time + Time² model (ATT²), relative to other simpler time and area models, using several diversity metrics. Results The ATT² model provides a more satisfactory explanation than the alternative models evaluated (for example the standard diversity–area models) in that it fits a higher proportion of the data sets tested, although it is not always the most parsimonious solution. Main conclusions The theoretical model developed herein is based on the key dynamic biological processes (migration, speciation, extinction) combined with a simple but general representation of the life cycle of oceanic islands, providing a framework for explaining patterns of biodiversity, endemism and diversification on a range of oceanic archipelagos. The properties and predictions derived from the model are shown to be broadly supported (1) by the empirical analyses presented, and (2) with reference to previous phylogenetic, ecological and geological studies.     

Towards a ‘Sea‐Level Sensitive’ dynamic model: impact of island ontogeny and glacio‐eustasy on global patterns of marine island biogeography

A synthetic model is presented to enlarge the evolutionary framework of the General Dynamic Model (GDM) and the Glacial Sensitive Model (GSM) of oceanic island biogeography from the terrestrial to the marine realm. The proposed ‘Sea‐Level Sensitive’ dynamic model (SLS) of marine island biogeography integrates historical and ecological biogeography with patterns of glacio‐eustasy, merging concepts from areas as diverse as taxonomy, biogeography, marine biology, volcanology, sedimentology, stratigraphy, palaeontology, geochronology and geomorphology. Fundamental to the SLS model is the dynamic variation of the littoral area of volcanic oceanic islands (defined as the area between the intertidal and the 50‐m isobath) in response to sea‐level oscillations driven by glacial–interglacial cycles. The following questions are considered by means of this revision: (i) what was the impact of (global) glacio‐eustatic sea‐level oscillations, particularly those of the Pleistocene glacial–interglacial episodes, on the littoral marine fauna and flora of volcanic oceanic islands? (ii) What are the main factors that explain the present littoral marine biodiversity on volcanic oceanic islands? (iii) How can differences in historical and ecological biogeography be reconciled, from a marine point of view? These questions are addressed by compiling the bathymetry of 11 Atlantic archipelagos/islands to obtain quantitative data regarding changes in the littoral area based on Pleistocene sea‐level oscillations, from 150 thousand years ago (ka) to the present. Within the framework of a model sensitive to changing sea levels, we discuss the principal factors affecting the geographical range of marine species; the relationships between modes of larval development, dispersal strategies and geographical range; the relationships between times of speciation, modes of larval development, ecological zonation and geographical range; the influence of sea‐surface temperatures and latitude on littoral marine species diversity; the effect of eustatic sea‐level changes and their impact on the littoral marine biota; island marine species–area relationships; and finally, the physical effects of island ontogeny and its associated submarine topography and marine substrate on littoral biota. Based on the SLS dynamic model, we offer a number of predictions for tropical, subtropical and temperate volcanic oceanic islands on how rates of immigration, colonization, in‐situ speciation, local disappearance, and extinction interact and affect the marine biodiversity around islands during glacials and interglacials, thus allowing future testing of the theory.     

Is a new paradigm emerging for oceanic island biogeography?

Following several decades during which two dissimilar and incompatible models (equilibrium and vicariance) dominated island biogeography, recent publications have documented patterns that point the way towards a new paradigm that includes elements of both models, as well as some novel aspects. Many of these seminal contributions have been made possible by the recent development of robust, temporally calibrated phylogenies used in concert with increasingly precise and reliable geological reconstructions of oceanic regions. Although a new general model of oceanic island biogeography has not yet been proposed, in this brief overview I present six hypotheses that summarize aspects of the emerging paradigm. These hypotheses deal with: the frequency of dispersal over oceanic water barriers by terrestrial organisms; the existence of substantial variation in the amount of dispersal (and gene flow) within a given set of related species within a given archipelago; the frequency, extent and impact on species richness of diversification within archipelagos; the frequent correlation of island age and the age of the species that live on the island; the long-term persistence of species on oceanic islands; and the occasional recolonization of continents by species from clades that diversified on islands. Identifying, testing, and seeking means of synthesizing these and other emerging hypotheses may allow a new conceptual paradigm to emerge.     

Island,archipelago and taxon effects: mixed models as a means of dealing with the imperfect design of nature's experiments

A major aim of island biogeography has been to describe general patterns of species richness across islands and to identify the processes responsible. Data are often collected across many islands; with larger datasets providing increased statistical power and more accurate parameter estimates. However, there is often structure in observational data, violating an assumption of linear models that each datum is independent. In island biogeography this structure may take the form of an island, archipelago or taxon being represented by multiple data points. We survey recent papers in this field and find that these forms of non‐independence are a common feature. Most authors addressed this problem by conducting separate analyses for each archipelago, taxon or combination of the two, but a better tool for dealing with non‐independence and structure in data, the mixed model, already exists. We demonstrate the advantages of a mixed model approach by applying it to a well‐known dataset that spans 134 observations of single island endemic (SIE) richness across 39 islands, four archipelagos and four taxa. Taking island area and age into account, SIE richness varies substantially more among archipelagos than it does among islands or taxa. We find that SIE richness rises with island age on the Azores and Galapagos, while on the Canaries and Hawaii SIE richness initially rises with age but later declines on older islands. Our analyses demonstrate three advantages to island biogeography of applying a mixed modelling approach: 1) structure in the data is controlled for; 2) the variance among islands, archipelagos and taxa is estimated; 3) all the data can be included in a single model, making it possible to test whether trends are general across all archipelagos and taxa or are idiosyncratic.     

物种保护的理论基础——从岛屿生物地理学理论到集合种群理论

全球面临着生境破碎化的危机,物种保护已成为人类面临的重大课题,并不是所有的人对岛屿生物地理学理论的产生及其关注的海洋岛屿都很熟悉,但是越来越多生物赖以生存的自然栖息地的丧失和破碎化都是有目共睹的,岛屿生物地理学和集合种群理论是目前物种保护的两个基本理论,物种迁入率和绝灭率的动态变化决策岛屿上的物种丰富度是岛屿生物地理学理论的核心内容,而集合种群理论关注的是局部种群之间个体迁移的动态以及物种的续存条件,在概述两个理论形成、发展及其核心内容的基础上,着重比较它们的异同点以及在生态学理论和实践中的应用,并论述物种保护理论范式从岛屿生物地理学向集合种群理论转变的基本背景和原因。     

Concluding remarks: historical perspective and the future of island biogeography theory

MacArthur and Wilson’s equilibrium theory revolutionized the field of island biogeography and, to a large degree, ecology as well. The theory, which quickly became the ruling paradigm of island biogeography, has changed little over the past three decades. It has not kept pace with relevant theory and our growing appreciation for the complexity of nature, especially with empirical findings that species diversity on many islands: 1) is not in equilibrium; 2) is influenced by differences in speciation, colonization, and extinction among taxa; and 3) is influenced by differences among islands in characteristics other than area and isolation. The discipline of biogeography, itself, is in a state of disequilibrium. We may again be about to witness another paradigm shift, which will see the replacement of MacArthur and Wilson’s theory. Wherever this shift may take us, we are confident that the next generation of biogeographers will still look to islands for insights into the forces that shape biological diversity.     

The mammals of northern Melanesia: speciation,ecology, and biogeography

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Increase of island endemism with altitude – speciation processes on oceanic islands

Understanding speciation on oceanic islands is a major topic in current research on island biogeography. Within this context, it is not an easy task to differentiate between the influence of elevation as an indicator for habitat diversity and island age as an indicator for the time available for diversification. One reason for this is that erosion processes reduce the elevation of islands over time. In addition, the geographic distance to source ecosystems might differ among habitats, which could lead to habitat‐specific reduction of species immigration, niche occupation and diversification. We used the percentage of single island endemic species (pSIE) in five different zonal ecosystems (distributed in altitude) on the Canary Islands as an indicator for diversification. We tested whether diversification increases with altitude due to a greater ecological isolation of high elevation ecosystems on oceanic islands under the assumption of a low elevation source region on the mainland. In addition we tested whether the ‘hump‐shaped’ (unimodal) relationship between pSIE and island age as well as the linear relationship between species richness and pSIE is consistent across spatial scales. We also analyse a potential influence of island area and habitat area. We found that pSIE increases with elevation. The relations between species richness as well as age with pSIE are consistent across scales. We conclude that high elevation ecosystems are ecologically isolated. Surprisingly, the altitudinal belt with the strongest human influences has the highest values of pSIE. We successfully transfer the ‘general dynamic theory of island biogeography’ to the ecosystem scale, which provides multiple opportunities for future studies. With this approach we find that the effects of elevation on diversification can be separated from those of island age.     

Sequential colonization and diversification of Galapágos endemic land snail genus Bulimulus (Gastropoda, Stylommatophora)

Species richness on island or islandlike systems is a function of colonization, within-island speciation, and extinction. Here we evaluate the relative importance of the first two of these processes as a function of the biogeographical and ecological attributes of islands using the Galápagos endemic land snails of the genus Bulimulus, the most species-rich radiation of these islands. Species in this clade have colonized almost all major islands and are found in five of the six described vegetation zones. We use molecular phylogenetics (based on COI and ITS 1 sequence data) to infer the diversification patterns of extant species of Bulimulus, and multiple regression to investigate the causes of variation among islands in species richness. Maximum-likelihood, Bayesian, and maximum-parsimony analyses yield well-resolved trees with similar topologies. The phylogeny obtained supports the progression rule hypothesis, with species found on older emerged islands connecting at deeper nodes. For all but two island species assemblages we find support for only one or two colonization events, indicating that within-island speciation has an important role in the formation of species on these islands. Even though speciation through colonization is not common, island insularity (distance to nearest major island) is a significant predictor of species richness resulting from interisland colonization alone. However, island insularity has no effect on the overall bulimulid species richness per island. Habitat diversity (measured as plant species diversity), island elevation, and island area, all of which are indirect measures of niche space, are strong predictors of overall bulimulid land snail species richness. Island age is also an important independent predictor of overall species richness, with older islands harboring more species than younger islands. Taken together, our results demonstrate that the diversification of Galápagos bulimulid land snails has been driven by a combination of geographic factors (island age, size, and location), which affect colonization patterns, and ecological factors, such as plant species diversity, that foster within-island speciation.     

Direct and indirect effects of area,energy and habitat heterogeneity on breeding bird communities

Aim To compare the ability of island biogeography theory, niche theory and species–energy theory to explain patterns of species richness and density for breeding bird communities across islands with contrasting characteristics. Location Thirty forested islands in two freshwater lakes in the boreal forest zone of northern Sweden (65°55′ N to 66°09′ N; 17°43′ E to 17°55′ E). Methods We performed bird censuses on 30 lake islands that have each previously been well characterized in terms of size, isolation, habitat heterogeneity (plant diversity and forest age), net primary productivity (NPP), and invertebrate prey abundance. To test the relative abilities of island biogeography theory, niche theory and species–energy theory to describe bird community patterns, we used both traditional statistical approaches (linear and multiple regressions) and structural equation modelling (SEM; in which both direct and indirect influences can be quantified). Results Using regression‐based approaches, area and bird abundance were the two most important predictors of bird species richness. However, when the data were analysed by SEM, area was not found to exert a direct effect on bird species richness. Instead, terrestrial prey abundance was the strongest predictor of bird abundance, and bird abundance in combination with NPP was the best predictor of bird species richness. Area was only of indirect importance through its positive effect on terrestrial prey abundance, but habitat heterogeneity and spatial subsidies (emerging aquatic insects) also showed important indirect influences. Thus, our results provided the strongest support for species–energy theory. Main conclusions Our results suggest that, by using statistical approaches that allow for analyses of both direct and indirect influences, a seemingly direct influence of area on species richness can be explained by greater energy availability on larger islands. As such, animal community patterns that seem to be in line with island biogeography theory may be primarily driven by energy availability. Our results also point to the need to consider several aspects of habitat quality (e.g. heterogeneity, NPP, prey availability and spatial subsidies) for successful management of breeding bird diversity at local spatial scales and in fragmented or insular habitats.     

Factors determining mammal species richness on habitat islands and isolates: habitat diversity, disturbance, species interactions and guild assembly rules

• 1 For over three decades the equilibrium theory of island biogeography has galvanized studies in ecological biogeography. Studies of oceanic islands and of natural habitat islands share some similarities to continental studies, particularly in developed regions where habitat fragmentation results from many land uses. Increasingly, remnant habitat is in the form of isolates created by the clearing and destruction of natural areas. Future evolution of a theory to predict patterns of species abundance may well come from the application of island biogeography to habitat fragments or isolates.
• 2 In this paper we consider four factors other than area and isolation that influence the number and type of mammal species coexisting in one place: habitat diversity, habitat disturbance, species interactions and guild assembly rules. In all examples our data derive from mainland habitat, fragmented to differing degrees, with different levels of isolation.
• 3 Habitat diversity is seen to be a good predictor of species richness. Increased levels of disturbance produce a relatively greater decrease in species richness on smaller than on larger isolates. Species interactions in the recolonization of highly disturbed sites, such as regenerating mined sites, is analogous to island colonization. Species replacement sequences in secondary successions indicate not just how many, but which species are included. Lastly, the complement of species established on islands, or in insular habitats, may be governed by guild assembly rules. These contributions may assist in taking a renewed theory into the new millennium.

     

The effects of biogeography on ant diversity and activity on the Boston Harbor Islands, Massachusetts, U.S.A

Many studies have examined how island biogeography affects diversity on the scale of island systems. In this study, we address how diversity varies over very short periods of time on individual islands. To do this, we compile an inventory of the ants living in the Boston Harbor Islands National Recreation Area, Boston, Massachusetts, USA using data from a five-year All Taxa Biodiversity Inventory of the region's arthropods. Consistent with the classical theory of island biogeography, species richness increased with island size, decreased with island isolation, and remained relatively constant over time. Additionally, our inventory finds that almost half of the known Massachusetts ant fauna can be collected in the BHI, and identifies four new species records for Massachusetts, including one new to the United States, Myrmica scabrinodis. We find that the number of species actually active on islands depended greatly on the timescale under consideration. The species that could be detected during any given week of sampling could by no means account for total island species richness, even when correcting for sampling effort. Though we consistently collected the same number of species over any given week of sampling, the identities of those species varied greatly between weeks. This variation does not result from local immigration and extinction of species, nor from seasonally-driven changes in the abundance of individual species, but rather from weekly changes in the distribution and activity of foraging ants. This variation can be upwards of 50% of ant species per week. This suggests that numerous ant species on the BHI share the same physical space at different times. This temporal partitioning could well explain such unexpectedly high ant diversity in an isolated, urban site.     

Drivers of diversity in Macaronesian spiders and the role of species extinctions

Aim To identify the biogeographical factors underlying spider species richness in the Macaronesian region and assess the importance of species extinctions in shaping the current diversity. Location The European archipelagos of Macaronesia with an emphasis on the Azores and Canary Islands. Methods Seven variables were tested as predictors of single‐island endemics (SIE), archipelago endemics and indigenous spider species richness in the Azores, Canary Islands and Macaronesia as a whole: island area; geological age; maximum elevation; distance from mainland; distance from the closest island; distance from an older island; and natural forest area remaining per island – a measure of deforestation (the latter only in the Azores). Different mathematical formulations of the general dynamic model of oceanic island biogeography (GDM) were also tested. Results Island area and the proportion of remaining natural forest were the best predictors of species richness in the Azores. In the Canary Islands, area alone did not explain the richness of spiders. However, a hump‐shaped relationship between richness and time was apparent in these islands. The island richness in Macaronesia was correlated with island area, geological age, maximum elevation and distance to mainland. Main conclusions In Macaronesia as a whole, area, island age, the large distance that separates the Azores from the mainland, and the recent disappearance of native habitats with subsequent unrecorded extinctions seem to be the most probable explanations for the current observed richness. In the Canary Islands, the GDM model is strongly supported by many genera that radiated early, reached a peak at intermediate island ages, and have gone extinct on older, eroded islands. In the Azores, the unrecorded extinctions of many species in the oldest, most disturbed islands seem to be one of the main drivers of the current richness patterns. Spiders, the most important terrestrial predators on these islands, may be acting as early indicators for the future disappearance of other insular taxa.     

Marine island biogeography. Response to comment on ‘Island biogeography: patterns of marine shallow‐water organisms’

In this response we have incorporated data on gastropod and seaweed biodiversity referred to by Ávila et al. (2016, Journal of Biogeography, doi: 10.1111/jbi.12816 ) to allow an updated analysis on marine shallow‐water biogeography patterns. When compared to the biogeography patterns reported in Hachich et al. (2015, Journal of Biogeography, 42 , 1871–1882), we find (1) no differences in the patterns originally reported for reef fish or seaweeds, (2) minor differences in gastropod species–area and species–age patterns and (3) a significant difference for the gastropod species‐isolation pattern. In our original work, we reported that there was limited evidence that gastropod species richness was influenced by island isolation; however, our new analysis reveals a power‐model relationship between these variables. Thus, we are now able to conclude that gastropod species diversity, whose dispersal capacity is intermediate between seaweeds (lowest) and reef fish (highest), is also influenced by island isolation.     

Subsidized Island Biogeography Hypothesis: another new twist on an old theory

We present a new hypothesis for predicting and describing patterns of species diversity on small islands and habitat fragments. We have modified the traditional island biogeography equilibrium theory to incorporate the influence of spatial subsidies from the surrounding matrix, which vary among islands and habitat fragments, on species diversities. The modification indicates three possible directions for the effects of spatial subsidies on diversity, which depend on where the focal community falls on the hypothesized unimodal curve of the productivity–diversity relationship. The idea is novel because no recent syntheses of productivity–diversity–area relationships examine the role of allochthonous resources on recipient communities’ diversity patterns.     

Diversification rates have declined in the Malagasy herpetofauna

The evolutionary origins of Madagascar''s biodiversity remain mysterious despite the fact that relative to land area, there is no other place with consistently high levels of species richness and endemism across a range of taxonomic levels. Most efforts to explain diversification on the island have focused on geographical models of speciation, but recent studies have begun to address the island''s accumulation of species through time, although with conflicting results. Prevailing hypotheses for diversification on the island involve either constant diversification rates or scenarios where rates decline through time. Using relative-time-calibrated phylogenies for seven endemic vertebrate clades and a model-fitting framework, I find evidence that diversification rates have declined through time on Madagascar. I show that diversification rates have clearly declined throughout the history of each clade, and models invoking diversity-dependent reductions to diversification rates best explain the diversification histories for each clade. These results are consistent with the ecological theory of adaptive radiation, and, coupled with ancillary observations about ecomorphological and life-history evolution, strongly suggest that adaptive radiation was an important formative process for one of the most species-rich regions on the Earth. These results cast the Malagasy biota in a new light and provide macroevolutionary justification for conservation initiatives.