The use of expert opinion to assess the risk of emergence or re-emergence of infectious diseases in Canada associated with climate change

Global climate change is predicted to lead to an increase in infectious disease outbreaks. Reliable surveillance for diseases that are most likely to emerge is required, and given limited resources, policy decision makers need rational methods with which to prioritise pathogen threats. Here expert opinion was collected to determine what criteria could be used to prioritise diseases according to the likelihood of emergence in response to climate change and according to their impact. We identified a total of 40 criteria that might be used for this purpose in the Canadian context. The opinion of 64 experts from academic, government and independent backgrounds was collected to determine the importance of the criteria. A weight was calculated for each criterion based on the expert opinion. The five that were considered most influential on disease emergence or impact were: potential economic impact, severity of disease in the general human population, human case fatality rate, the type of climate that the pathogen can tolerate and the current climatic conditions in Canada. There was effective consensus about the influence of some criteria among participants, while for others there was considerable variation. The specific climate criteria that were most likely to influence disease emergence were: an annual increase in temperature, an increase in summer temperature, an increase in summer precipitation and to a lesser extent an increase in winter temperature. These climate variables were considered to be most influential on vector-borne diseases and on food and water-borne diseases. Opinion about the influence of climate on air-borne diseases and diseases spread by direct/indirect contact were more variable. The impact of emerging diseases on the human population was deemed more important than the impact on animal populations.     

Condition Bias of Decoy-Harvested Light Geese During the Conservation Order

Evidence that decoy harvest techniques primarily remove individuals of poorer body condition is well established in short-lived duck species; however, there is limited support for condition bias in longer-lived waterfowl species, such as geese, where decoy harvest is considered primarily additive because of their high natural survival rates. We evaluated support for the harvest condition bias hypothesis of 2 long-lived waterfowl species, the lesser snow goose (Anser caerulescens caerulescens) and Ross's goose (Anser rossii). We used proximate analysis to quantify lipid and protein content of lesser snow and Ross's geese collected during the Light Goose Conservation Order (LGCO) in 2015 and 2016 during spring migration in Arkansas, Missouri, Nebraska, and South Dakota, USA. In each state, LGCO participants collected birds using traditional decoy techniques and we collected birds from the general population using jump-shooting tactics. Total body lipid content in both lesser snow and Ross's geese varied with age, region of harvest, and harvest type (decoy or jump-shooting). On average, adult lesser snow and Ross's geese harvested over decoys had 60 g and 41 g, respectively, fewer lipids than conspecifics collected using jump-shooting. We observed lower lipid reserves in decoy-shot geese in all 4 states sampled despite general gains in lipid reserves as migration chronology progressed. Our data support that the harvest condition bias extends to longer-lived waterfowl species and during a life-history event (spring migration) in which harvest is not normally observed. In the case of overabundant light geese, the disproportionate harvest of poorer-conditioned lesser snow and Ross's geese may serve as an additional challenge against any realized effects of harvest to reduce the population, in addition to extremely low harvest rates. © 2019 The Wildlife Society.     

Effect of Pre-Harvest Mortality on Harvest Rates and Derived Population Estimates

Banding waterfowl, in combination with the citizen science provided by hunters that report marks from harvested birds, is a long-standing, institutionalized practice for estimating probabilities of survival and exploitation (i.e., legal harvest from such populations). Range-wide population abundance can also be estimated by combining the number of banded individuals with the number harvested from the population. Waterfowl marking with uniquely identifiable bands done during late summer in North America is often referred to as pre-season banding. For example, mass capture of arctic geese for pre-season banding is normally done in July (nonbreeders) or August (failed breeders and breeders with young) during flightless molt of respective groups. An important assumption for proper inference about harvest probability provided from such samples is that there is no mortality, natural or otherwise, during the interval between when individuals are marked and when hunting seasons begin. We evaluated the effect of variable mortality that could occur between marking and subsequent hunting seasons on estimates of survival, recovery, and harvest probabilities using simulation pertinent to a typical waterfowl species. We fit a Brownie tag-recovery model to the simulated data and calculated the estimator bias that resulted from various pre-harvest mortality scenarios. There was no effect on survival probability during the interval between annual banding in subsequent years, but recovery probability, and thus estimated harvest probability, was directly and inversely related to pre-harvest mortality of juveniles. The magnitude of negative bias in harvest probability of juveniles increased further as the fraction of the population sampled declined. If the probability of pre-harvest mortality differs between marked and unmarked individuals, the negative bias in harvest probability results in overestimates of derived abundance that increases as the proportion of marked individuals in the population declines. We used our observed results to propose an explanation for occasional biologically improbable estimates of abundance of juvenile lesser snow geese (Anser caerulescens). © 2021 The Authors. The Journal of Wildlife Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Wildlife Society.     

Avian Cholera,a Threat to the Viability of an Arctic Seabird Colony?

Evidence that infectious diseases cause wildlife population extirpation or extinction remains anecdotal and it is unclear whether the impacts of a pathogen at the individual level can scale up to population level so drastically. Here, we quantify the response of a Common eider colony to emerging epidemics of avian cholera, one of the most important infectious diseases affecting wild waterfowl. We show that avian cholera has the potential to drive colony extinction, even over a very short period. Extinction depends on disease severity (the impact of the disease on adult female survival) and disease frequency (the number of annual epidemics per decade). In case of epidemics of high severity (i.e., causing >30% mortality of breeding females), more than one outbreak per decade will be unsustainable for the colony and will likely lead to extinction within the next century; more than four outbreaks per decade will drive extinction to within 20 years. Such severity and frequency of avian cholera are already observed, and avian cholera might thus represent a significant threat to viability of breeding populations. However, this will depend on the mechanisms underlying avian cholera transmission, maintenance, and spread, which are currently only poorly known.     

Experimental harvest regulations reveal that water availability during spring,not harvest,affects change in a waterfowl population

Population change is regulated by vital rates that are influenced by environmental conditions, demographic stochasticity, and, increasingly, anthropogenic effects. Habitat destruction and climate change threaten the future of many wildlife populations, and there are additional concerns regarding the effects of harvest rates on demographic components of harvested organisms. Further, many population managers strictly manage harvest of wild organisms to mediate population trends of these populations. The goal of our study was to decouple harvest and environmental variability in a closely monitored population of wild ducks in North America, where we experimentally regulated harvest independently of environmental variation over a period of 4 years. We used 9 years of capture–mark–recapture data to estimate breeding population size during the spring for a population of wood ducks in Nevada. We then assessed the effect of one environmental variable and harvest pressure on annual changes in the breeding population size. Climatic conditions influencing water availability were strongly positively related to population growth rates of wood ducks in our study system. In contrast, harvest regulations and harvest rates did not affect population growth rates. We suggest efforts to conserve waterfowl should focus on the effects of habitat loss in breeding areas and climate change, which will likely affect precipitation regimes in the future. We demonstrate the utility of capture–mark–recapture methods to estimate abundance of species which are difficult to survey and test the impacts of anthropogenic harvest and climate on populations. Finally, our results continue to add to the importance of experimentation in applied conservation biology, where we believe that continued experiments on nonthreatened species will be critically important as researchers attempt to understand how to quantify and mitigate direct anthropogenic impacts in a changing world.     

Habitat loss exacerbates pathogen spread: An Agent-based model of avian influenza infection in migratory waterfowl

Habitat availability determines the distribution of migratory waterfowl along their flyway, which further influences the transmission and spatial spread of avian influenza viruses (AIVs). The extensive habitat loss in the East Asian-Australasian Flyway (EAAF) may have potentially altered the virus spread and transmission, but those consequences are rarely studied. We constructed 6 fall migration networks that differed in their level of habitat loss, wherein an increase in habitat loss resulted in smaller networks with fewer sites and links. We integrated an agent-based model and a susceptible-infected-recovered model to simulate waterfowl migration and AIV transmission. We found that extensive habitat loss in the EAAF can 1) relocate the outbreaks northwards, responding to the distribution changes of wintering waterfowl geese, 2) increase the outbreak risk in remaining sites due to larger goose congregations, and 3) facilitate AIV transmission in the migratory population. In addition, our modeling output was in line with the predictions from the concept of “migratory escape”, i.e., the migration allows the geese to “escape” from the location where infection risk is high, affecting the pattern of infection prevalence in the waterfowl population. Our modeling shed light on the potential consequences of habitat loss in spreading and transmitting AIV at the flyway scale and suggested the driving mechanisms behind these effects, indicating the importance of conservation in changing spatial and temporal patterns of AIV outbreaks.     

Survival and Recovery Rate of Canada Geese Staging in Interior Alaska

Abstract: Lesser Canada geese (Branta canadensis parvipes) are indistinguishable from other subspecies of small Canada geese on the wintering grounds using current survey methods. Consequently, managers are unable to adequately measure their abundance. Without direct estimates of abundance, researchers often use estimates of vital rates that influence abundance (e.g., annual survival) to monitor potential impact of harvest on the population. Based on capture and re-sighting data records of 567 geese marked from 1994 through 1998, we calculated annual survival and recovery rates for different age and sex classes of white-cheeked geese staging in interior Alaska. We compared those survival and recovery rates with those of other neck-collared white-cheeked geese. The best approximating model allowed survival to vary by age class while holding Seber's recovery probability (r̂) constant over sex, age class, and time. We estimated annual survival to be 0.49 (SE = 0.05) for hatch-year geese and 0.68 (SE = 0.03) for after-hatch-year geese based on the weighted average of all models with a change in Akaike's Information Criterion adjusted for small sample size and lack of fit < 4. Estimates of annual survival of white-cheeked geese in this study are among the lowest and recovery estimates are among the highest for migratory populations of neck-collared geese. Low survival estimates of Canada geese in our study suggest that harvest rates may be higher than in many other populations. Surveys to estimate abundance or other population parameters such as reproductive success and recruitment are necessary to determine whether this population is self-sustaining. Furthermore, we recommend monitoring abundance and harvest of small white-cheeked geese east and west of the Cascade Mountain Range separately to better determine harvest pressure on white-cheeked geese wintering east of the Cascades.     

New species records and changes in abundance of waterfowl in northwest Greenland

Breeding populations of Nearctic and Palearctic waterfowl have undergone significant changes in abundance and distribution over the past 50 years. The Avanersuaq District in northwest Greenland is home to an assemblage of waterfowl from both geographic areas; however, minimal historic or current information is available on species abundance. In 2008 and 2009, we conducted field surveys in Greenland from 76.00° to 77.35°N for breeding and non-breeding waterfowl and have collected anecdotal field notes of avian observations over a 20-year period (1993–2012). During these periods, we documented the first observation of a Ross’s goose (Chen rossii) and the first confirmed breeding by lesser snow geese (Chen caerulescens caerulescens) in Greenland. Northern pintails (Anas acuta) were observed for the first time in northwest Greenland, and a previously unknown breeding location for brent geese (Branta bernicla hrota) was also identified. Local populations of greater snow (C. c.) and Canada geese (B. canadensis) have increased in size. The Booth Sound and Drown Bay wetland areas and many islands throughout the Avanersuaq District were identified as critical habitat for both breeding and non-breeding waterfowl. Further increases in waterfowl abundance, including more frequent rare and new visitors, are likely in the study area as breeding populations further south continue to increase and an ameliorating climate allows for a longer breeding season. These results will prove useful as a baseline for comparisons with future surveys.     

Multi-species patterns of avian cholera mortality in Nebraska's Rainwater Basin

Nebraska's Rainwater Basin (RWB) is a key spring migration area for millions of waterfowl and other avian species. Avian cholera has been endemic in the RWB since the 1970s and in some years tens of thousands of waterfowl have died from the disease. We evaluated patterns of avian cholera mortality in waterfowl species using the RWB during the last quarter of the 20th century. Mortality patterns changed between the years before (1976-1988) and coincident with (1989-1999) the dramatic increases in lesser snow goose abundance and mortality. Lesser snow geese (Chen caerulescens caerulescens) have commonly been associated with mortality events in the RWB and are known to carry virulent strains of Pasteurella multocida, the agent causing avian cholera. Lesser snow geese appeared to be the species most affected by avian cholera during 1989-1999; however, mortality in several other waterfowl species was positively correlated with lesser snow goose mortality. Coincident with increased lesser snow goose mortality, spring avian cholera outbreaks were detected earlier and ended earlier compared to 1976-1988. Dense concentrations of lesser snow geese may facilitate intraspecific disease transmission through bird-to-bird contact and wetland contamination. Rates of interspecific avian cholera transmission within the waterfowl community, however, are difficult to determine.     

Decadal Response of Arctic Freshwaters to Burgeoning Goose Populations

The Arctic is faced with rapid climatic changes, but in some areas, drastic changes in the abundance of herbivores represent an even greater agent of change. Increasing goose populations, especially midcontinent lesser snow geese (Chen caerulescens), have led to an extensive loss of vegetation in terrestrial habitats in the Arctic through heavy grazing and destructive foraging. Our aim was to evaluate the effect of geese on the freshwater systems in their Arctic breeding grounds. We sampled the water chemistry of lakes and ponds across a major goose breeding area in the Eastern Canadian Arctic and compared results to samples taken 13 years earlier to determine whether the changes in water chemistry, if evident, were consistent with effects of geese or of climate. Our results suggest that nutrient loadings have increased while most other parameters associated with the underlying geology and hydrology of the region have stayed in a similar range as a decade ago. The most significant changes were linked to nitrogen and phosphorus; phosphorus concentrations doubled between 2001/2002 and 2015, with the highest levels and greatest changes observed for wetlands inside versus outside of goose breeding areas. Our results suggest that geese are most strongly affecting nutrient loads in freshwaters inside breeding areas, which show evidence of ornithological eutrophication. Nutrient changes of this magnitude, especially in typically oligotrophic Arctic lakes, can have profound consequences on ecosystem structure and function and demonstrate how burgeoning waterfowl populations can act as a vector of rapid environmental change in Arctic freshwaters.     

Long-Term Survival and Harvest of Resident Canada Geese in Virginia

Resident populations of Canada geese (Branta canadensis) are of particular management interest throughout the eastern United States given increased human-wildlife conflicts due to regional increases in the Atlantic Flyway Resident Population. Within Virginia, USA, growth rates of resident goose populations have been reduced through extended harvest seasons and increased bag limits. Our objective was to investigate spatiotemporal patterns in survival rates and harvest rates of resident geese in Virginia over the past 25 years. We estimated annual survival, recovery, and harvest rates using mark-recapture data from 1990–2015 for individuals that were banded as resident birds during summer throughout the state. We tested for differences in annual survival probability and harvest rates of resident geese banded and recovered in 3 distinct goose hunt zones: the Atlantic, Southern James Bay, and Western hunt zones, each of which had different hunting regulations. We also tested for differences in survival and harvest rates between individuals banded in rural or urban sampling locations, and between age classes (i.e., after hatch-year or hatch-year). In general, survival rates of resident geese over the past 25 years in Virginia are declining. Differences in survival among the 3 goose hunt zones also suggests that current harvest management strategies have reduced survival rates of resident geese. Upon closer examination, we found differences in survival among zones, with resident geese in the Atlantic and Southern James Bay hunt zones showing more negative declines compared to resident geese in the Western zone. Resident geese banded in rural areas had higher survival than urban-banded geese. We also investigated the effects of sampling effort on survival estimates and found no difference in survival estimates among groups when using 75%, 50%, 25%, or 5% of the data randomly sampled from the full data set, suggesting that banding efforts of resident geese could be reduced and continue to inform adaptive management strategies for these populations throughout Virginia. © 2020 The Wildlife Society.     

Extirpation Risk of an Isolated Black Bear Population Under Different Management Scenarios

ABSTRACT Habitat loss and anthropogenic mortality are recognized as threats to populations of large carnivores worldwide, yet their relative importance to extinction risk has rarely been quantified. We used population viability analysis (PVA) to estimate extinction probability of an isolated population of black bears (Ursus americanus) on the Bruce Peninsula, Ontario, Canada under different management scenarios. We used random-effects analysis of variance to estimate components of variance in extinction risk explained by 4 management actions: 1) preventing habitat destruction, 2) reducing or eliminating incidental non-natural mortality, 3) reducing or eliminating harvest, and 4) reducing the fraction of reproducing females in the harvest. Habitat area reductions had the greatest effect on risk despite uncertainty in bear density. Incidental non-natural mortality had a greater effect than the rate or age and sex distribution of harvest. Quantifying the variation in outputs of PVA models associated with different management options is an improvement over qualitative comparisons of relative risk and enhances the applicability of PVA to management. This study highlights the importance of protecting habitats on adjacent private lands when reserves are too small to support populations of bears, and of protecting reproducing females from non-natural mortality—results that could aid managers of other large carnivores in focusing management efforts to ensure persistence of populations.     

Evaluation of assisted colonization strategies under global change for a rare,fire‐dependent plant

As a clear consensus is emerging that habitat for many species will dramatically reduce or shift with climate change, attention is turning to adaptation strategies to address these impacts. Assisted colonization is one such strategy that has been predominantly discussed in terms of the costs of introducing potential competitors into new communities and the benefits of reducing extinction risk. However, the success or failure of assisted colonization will depend on a range of population‐level factors that have not yet been quantitatively evaluated – the quality of the recipient habitat, the number and life stages of translocated individuals, the establishment of translocated individuals in their new habitat and whether the recipient habitat is subject to ongoing threats all will play an important role in population persistence. In this article, we do not take one side or the other in the debate over whether assisted colonization is worthwhile. Rather, we focus on the likelihood that assisted colonization will promote population persistence in the face of climate‐induced distribution changes and altered fire regimes for a rare endemic species. We link a population model with species distribution models to investigate expected changes in populations with climate change, the impact of altered fire regimes on population persistence and how much assisted colonization is necessary to minimize risk of decline in populations of Tecate cypress, a rare endemic tree in the California Floristic Province, a biodiversity hotspot. We show that assisted colonization may be a risk‐minimizing adaptation strategy when there are large source populations that are declining dramatically due to habitat contractions, multiple nearby sites predicted to contain suitable habitat, minimal natural dispersal, high rates of establishment of translocated populations and the absence of nonclimatic threats such as altered disturbance regimes. However, when serious ongoing threats exist, assisted colonization is ineffective.     

Running to stand still: adaptation and the response of plants to rapid climate change

Climate is a potent selective force in natural populations, yet the importance of adaptation in the response of plant species to past climate change has been questioned. As many species are unlikely to migrate fast enough to track the rapidly changing climate of the future, adaptation must play an increasingly important role in their response. In this paper we review recent work that has documented climate‐related genetic diversity within populations or on the microgeographical scale. We then describe studies that have looked at the potential evolutionary responses of plant populations to future climate change. We argue that in fragmented landscapes, rapid climate change has the potential to overwhelm the capacity for adaptation in many plant populations and dramatically alter their genetic composition. The consequences are likely to include unpredictable changes in the presence and abundance of species within communities and a reduction in their ability to resist and recover from further environmental perturbations, such as pest and disease outbreaks and extreme climatic events. Overall, a range‐wide increase in extinction risk is likely to result. We call for further research into understanding the causes and consequences of the maintenance and loss of climate‐related genetic diversity within populations.     

Could Have Gone Wrong: Effects of Abrupt Changes in Migratory Behaviour on Harvest in a Waterbird Population

To sustainably exploit a population, it is crucial to understand and reduce uncertainties about population processes and effects of harvest. In migratory species, management is challenged by geographically separated changing environmental conditions, which may cause unexpected changes in species distribution and harvest. We describe the development in the harvest of Svalbard-breeding pink-footed geese (Anser brachyrhynchus) in relation to the observed trajectory and migratory behaviour of the population. In autumn, geese migrate via stopover sites in Norway and Denmark (where they are hunted) to wintering grounds in the Netherlands and Belgium (where they are protected). In Denmark and Norway harvesting increased stepwise during the 2000s. The increase in the population size only partly explained the change. The change corresponded to a simultaneous stepwise increase in numbers of geese staging in Denmark throughout autumn and winter; geese also moved further inland to feed which collectively increased their exposure to hunting. In Norway the increase in harvest reflected greater utilisation of lowland farmland areas by geese, increasing their hunting exposure. The study demonstrates how changes in migratory behaviour can abruptly affect exposure to hunting, which showed a functional response to increased temporal and spatial availability of geese. The harvest has now reached a level likely to cause a population decline. It highlights the need for flexible, internationally coordinated hunting regulations and reliable up-to-date population estimates and hunting bag statistics, which are rare in European management of migratory waterbirds. Without such information decisions are left with judgments based on population estimates, which often have time lags of several years between recording and reporting, hampering possibilities for the timely adjustment of management actions.     

Mercury in waterfowl from a contaminated river in Virginia

Many bodies of water around the world are contaminated with mercury from historic industrial and mining activities or ongoing atmospheric deposition, resulting in numerous fish consumption advisories. However, concerns about mercury have only rarely led to consumption advisories on waterfowl. In contrast with fish, waterfowl frequently disperse long distances to new watersheds, so hunters and wildlife managers do not know whether waterfowl at a pristine site have spent time at a contaminated site elsewhere. We sampled tissue mercury concentrations of mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), wood ducks (Aix sponsa), and Canada geese (Branta canadensis) at a site contaminated with mercury, during the breeding and hunting seasons. We found that many mallards had bioaccumulated mercury to levels that had the potential to produce reproductive effects and exceeded consumption advisories set for fish by regulatory agencies, whereas this was true for only a few wood ducks and Canada geese. We also documented that mercury-exposed waterfowl from this contaminated site were harvested by hunters as far as 1,054 km away. Our results suggest the need for more proactive sampling of waterfowl for mercury, and likely other bioaccumulating contaminants, in order to allow hunters to make more informed choices about consumption of their harvest. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.     

Avian cholera exposure and carriers in greater white-fronted geese breeding in Alaska, USA

We conducted a 3-yr study (2001-03) on greater white-fronted geese (Anser albifrons frontalis) breeding in Alaska, USA, to determine the exposure of this population to Pasteurella multocida and the potential role of these birds as disease carriers. We tested sera from nearly 600 adult geese for antibodies to P. multocida serotype 1. We found a low prevalence (<5%) of positive antibodies in adult geese, and based on the short duration of detectable antibodies, these findings indicate recent infection with P. multocida. Prevalence was similar to serologic results from both breeding and wintering lesser snow geese. We also collected oral (n=1,035), nasal (n=102), and cloacal (n=90) swab samples to determine the presence of avian cholera carriers in this population. We were unable to isolate P. multocida serotype 1 from any of the birds sampled. Based on comparison with other waterfowl species, we concluded that these geese may be exposed to avian cholera during the winter or spring migration but are unlikely to play a significant role as carriers of the bacterium causing avian cholera.     

Increased rice flooding during winter explains the recent increase in the Pacific Flyway White‐fronted Goose Anser albifrons frontalis population in North America

Despite declines in numerous migratory bird populations due to global climate and landscape changes, the Pacific Flyway population of Greater White‐fronted Geese Anser albifrons frontalis in North America has flourished over recent decades. However, the demographic foundations of the population increase remain unclear, largely due to sparse data. In this study, we used a Bayesian integrated population model (IPM) to maximize information from multiple data sources including coordinated population survey, ring‐recovery and hunter‐harvested goose tail data. We estimated demographic parameters and assessed the role of several possible drivers of the observed population increase, including density‐dependent processes, agricultural land use change and climate conditions in both the wintering and the breeding season, while also accounting for the impacts of harvest. Non‐harvest survival of all geese was 0.83 (95% credible interval (CRI): 0.70–0.96) before legislation restricted post‐harvest rice field burning, and 0.98 (95% CRI: 0.94–1.0) afterwards. We detected a negative effect of density‐dependent processes and a positive effect of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation on non‐harvest survival with high certainty. Kill rates were 0.11 (95% CRI: 0.09–0.12) for adults (after hatch year) and 0.26 (95% CRI 0.21–0.31) for juveniles (hatch year), resulting in annual survival rates of 0.81 (95% CRI: 0.69–0.89) for adults and 0.67 (95% CRI: 0.56–0.76) for juveniles. The ratio of juvenile birds to adults in the population was on average 0.36 (95% CRI: 0.29–0.45) and was driven by negative density‐dependent processes with high certainty. Our results suggest that the ban on rice field burning and subsequent high frequency of flooding as an alternative rice decomposition practice was the primary driver of the Pacific white‐fronted Goose population increase. The effects of climate change and density dependence were not strong enough to suppress the benefit of flooded rice. Given sparse demographic data for Pacific white‐fronted Geese, we were only able to uncover drivers of demography using IPMs. We encourage practitioners with sparse data similarly to consider forming IPMs to determine the drivers and mechanisms for population change and to prioritize future data collection.     

Individualistic Population Responses of Five Frog Species in Two Changing Tropical Environments over Time

Roughly 40% of amphibian species are in decline with habitat loss, disease, and climate change being the most cited threats. Heterogeneity of extrinsic (e.g. climate) and intrinsic (e.g. local adaptations) factors across a species’ range should influence population response to climate change and other threats. Here we examine relative detectability changes for five direct-developing leaf litter frogs between 42-year sampling periods at one Lowland Tropical Forest site (51 m.a.s.l.) and one Premontane Wet Forest site (1100 m.a.s.l.) in southwest Costa Rica. We identify individualistic changes in relative detectability among populations between sampling periods at different elevations. Both common and rare species showed site-specific declines, and no species exhibited significant declines at both sites. Detection changes are correlated with changes in temperature, dry season rainfall, and leaf litter depth since1969. Our study species share Least Concern conservation status, life history traits, and close phylogenetic relationship, yet their populations changed individualistically both within and among species. These results counter current views of the uniformity or predictability of amphibian decline response and suggest additional complexity for conservation decisions.     

鸿雁迁徙对停歇地的选择特征

建立合理的湿地水鸟保护地是缓解水鸟栖息地丧失和种群下降的重要手段。以往的保护地设计中,由于越冬地和和繁殖地水鸟停留时间长、种群数量大,受到较多的关注。分析湿地水鸟对停歇地的选择偏好,掌握停歇地的自然条件和人类活动特征可为水鸟保护网络优化和保护地管理提供决策依据。而在水鸟迁徙过程中,停歇地作为保护网络的重要节点也发挥了重要作用。因此选择鸿雁为伞护种,获取了29只鸿雁项圈追踪数据,分析蒙古国Khukh湖-中国东北鸭绿江口秋季迁徙路线对停歇地生境选择偏好,识别了鸿雁在湿地周边不同距离梯度下的活动频率变化。根据鸿雁停歇数据共识别停歇地63处,以此为基础分析停歇的自然条件和人类活动因素特征。结果表明,鸿雁除选择湖泊和沼泽为停歇地外,周边250m内的裸地和草地也是重要栖息地;当鸿雁停歇地人类活动较少时,鸿雁倾向于选择土壤肥沃、食物丰富区,而人类活动强度加大时,栖息地植被条件提高能够为鸿雁提供遮避条件,也吸引了更多鸿雁停歇。研究建议,在水鸟迁徙重要廊道区应增加水鸟停歇地保护区,保护区的设计应根据关键保护对象活动频率加强对湿地周边的栖息地保护,减少水滨人类活动对鸿雁停歇的负面影响;在人类活动强度较大的地区设立水鸟保护地,还应加强对植被的保护,在水鸟利用频率较高的停歇地周边进行植被修复。