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1.
  1. Understanding the effects of density-dependent and density-independent factors on recruitment is often inhibited by difficulties quantifying their relative contributions in highly variable recruitment data. Use of data-driven statistical methods with data that include one or more extreme recruitment events could help overcome these difficulties.
  2. Juvenile Atlantic salmon and trout abundances in Wales have declined over the last 2 decades, and 2016 was a notably poor recruitment year in rivers around southern Europe, including England and Wales. The 2016 recruitment crash coincided with extreme winter weather conditions, leading to speculation that unusually warm temperatures and high flows adversely affect salmonid recruitment and caused the 2016 crash, although this remains untested.
  3. We developed data-driven statistical models to: (1) describe juvenile salmonid recruitment from density-dependent and density-independent factors; and (2) assess whether the density-independent factors probably contributed to the 2016 salmon recruitment crash. We compiled salmon and trout young-of-year juvenile abundances from electrofishing surveys, egg deposition estimates and river flow and air temperature data from 2001–2017 for seven Welsh rivers, broadly representative of rivers around Wales. We used river flow and air temperature data to derive ecologically and behaviourally meaningful density-independent explanatory variables.
  4. Salmonid recruitment in Wales was best described using density-dependent and density-independent factors, especially for salmon: after accounting for a concave relationship with egg deposition, salmon juvenile abundance was reduced under (1) warmer spawning temperatures that might inhibit spawning, and (2) higher flood frequencies during pre-emergence and emergence that might washout eggs or alevins. Results were less clear for trout, perhaps because they are behaviourally more plastic.
  5. Our findings provide empirical support for general and predictable effects of temperature and flow during spawning and emergence on salmonid—especially salmon—recruitment in Wales. Furthermore, we suggest that the 2016 salmon recruitment crash was caused—in part—by particularly inclement spawning and emergence conditions, which could be more common under future climate change. Our findings suggest that future salmonid stock assessment models could include the effects of density-independent variables on recruitment to improve their predictive power.
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2.
Median bull trout Salvelinus confluentus breeding was 2 weeks earlier in a cool stream than in a proximate warmer stream, aligning with expectations for salmonids, followed by emergence timing calculated to be 6 weeks later in the cool stream than the warm stream. This pattern is consistent with both site-specific adaptation and thermal spawning threshold hypotheses for life-history event timing in this threatened species.  相似文献   

3.
Embryonic temperature influenced subsequent growth in juvenile snapping turtles, Chelydra serpentina: incubation temperatures of 24 and 26.5°C enhanced growth relative to a temperature of 29°C. Although embryonic temperature normally determines gonadal sex in this species, experimental manipulations revealed that temperature effects on growth were independent of sex. Ambient temperature also affected growth: juvenile turtles grew slowly in a cool (19°C) versus a warm (28°C) environment. In a parallel experiment, turtles from different embryonic temperatures displayed different patterns of temperature choice in response to nutritional status or time of day. We tentatively conclude that embryonic temperature has both direct and indirect (i.e., through temperature choice) effects on growth in snapping turtles.  相似文献   

4.
Management of riparian vegetation is difficult because these communities are frequently impacted by herbivores, invasive weeds, and altered hydrologic regimes. Multiple and intertwined factors affecting rare species recruitment are particularly difficult to identify. Gaura neomexicana ssp. coloradensis Munz (Gaura) is a short‐lived perennial forb endemic to riparian areas in mixed‐grass prairies of Wyoming, Nebraska, and Colorado, U.S.A. It became a federally listed threatened species in October 2000. Because the species is a recruitment‐limited monocarpic perennial, we studied the effects of six capsule‐collection dates, a 2‐month cool‐moist stratification, 24‐hr leaching, and 24‐hr imbibition on Gaura seedling emergence. Seedling emergence did not vary with collection date. Capsules collected from Gaura plants grown at the Bridger Plant Materials Center in Montana exhibited greater emergence than capsules harvested from endemic populations near Cheyenne, Wyoming, suggesting that maternal plant growing conditions impact dormancy. Because cool‐moist stratification enhanced seedling emergence of Gaura and leaching did not, sufficient moisture during cool temperatures may be more critical than leaching of germination inhibitors as might occur with normal stream flows. Spring flooding may enhance Gaura recruitment by increasing the availability of riparian sites that are inundated during periods of cool temperatures. If so, hydrologic and climatic regimes must be considered in restoring the unique conditions needed for germination of this rare riparian endemic.  相似文献   

5.
Tree species are predicted to track future climate by shifting their geographic distributions, but climate‐mediated migrations are not apparent in a recent continental‐scale analysis. To better understand the mechanisms of a possible migration lag, we analyzed relative recruitment patterns by comparing juvenile and adult tree abundances in climate space. One would expect relative recruitment to be higher in cold and dry climates as a result of tree migration with juveniles located further poleward than adults. Alternatively, relative recruitment could be higher in warm and wet climates as a result of higher tree population turnover with increased temperature and precipitation. Using the USDA Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis data at regional scales, we jointly modeled juvenile and adult abundance distributions for 65 tree species in climate space of the eastern United States. We directly compared the optimal climate conditions for juveniles and adults, identified the climates where each species has high relative recruitment, and synthesized relative recruitment patterns across species. Results suggest that for 77% and 83% of the tree species, juveniles have higher optimal temperature and optimal precipitation, respectively, than adults. Across species, the relative recruitment pattern is dominated by relatively more abundant juveniles than adults in warm and wet climates. These different abundance‐climate responses through life history are consistent with faster population turnover and inconsistent with the geographic trend of large‐scale tree migration. Taken together, this juvenile–adult analysis suggests that tree species might respond to climate change by having faster turnover as dynamics accelerate with longer growing seasons and higher temperatures, before there is evidence of poleward migration at biogeographic scales.  相似文献   

6.
Heatwaves, with increases in day and night time temperatures, are predicted to increase in frequency. We investigated the response of forbs, shrubs, grasses and non‐grass monocotyledons from warm temperate environments in Australia to repeated heatwaves to determine if responses differed with growth form and whether the addition of hot night temperatures influenced the ability of species to grow and acclimate. Plants were subjected to 3, 3‐day heatwaves comprising either hot days and nights or hot days and cool nights, with control plants maintained under cool days and nights. All species were thermotolerant to repeated heatwaves, although two species showed lower biomass under heat treatments, indicating repeated heatwaves influenced function in some, but not all species. While there was evidence of photosynthetic damage in some species, these recovered by the end of the experiment. While grasses and one herb showed some evidence of photosystem acclimation, increases in the threshold temperatures for membrane breakdown only occurred in one shrub. Leaf sacrifice in grasses was significantly increased after repeated heatwaves suggesting that fuel loads in grass communities will increase in the future. These results indicate high resilience for these Australian native warm temperate plants although lower growth rates in some species after heatwaves may result in changes to community composition.  相似文献   

7.
While floral herbivores and predispersal seed predators often reduce plant reproductive output, their role in limiting plant fitness and population growth is less clear, especially for iteroparous perennial plant species. In this study we experimentally excluded floral herbivores and predispersal seed predators (insecticide spray versus water control) over a 2-year period to examine the effect of inflorescence-feeding insects on levels of seed production, seedling emergence, and juvenile establishment for Liatris cylindracea, an iteroparous perennial plant. In addition, we collected detailed demographic data on all life stage transitions for an additional set of individuals in the same population over 4 years. We used the experimental and demographic data to construct stochastic individual-based simulations to evaluate the overall effect of inflorescence-feeding insects on adult recruitment per maternal plant (a fitness component) and population growth rate. The insect exclusion experiments showed that damage due to insects decreased seed production, seedling emergence, and juvenile establishment for both years' experiments. These results indicate that recruitment was seed-limited through juvenile establishment, and that inflorescence-feeding insects influenced the degree of seed limitation. Results of the individual-based simulation models, which included individual demographic and temporal stochasticity, showed that inflorescence-feeding insects negatively affected the number of adult offspring per maternal plant recruited into the population and population growth rate for both years' experiments. Taken together, the results of the experimental exclusions and the individual-based models indicate that inflorescence-feeding insects can influence population growth rate, and have the potential to act as a selective force for the evolution of traits in this plant species.  相似文献   

8.
Growing evidence suggests that plant secondary compounds (PSCs) ingested by mammals become more toxic at elevated ambient temperatures, a phenomenon known as temperature-dependent toxicity. We investigated temperature-dependent toxicity in the desert woodrat (Neotoma lepida), a herbivorous rodent that naturally encounters PSCs in creosote bush (Larrea tridentata), which is a major component of its diet. First, we determined the maximum dose of creosote resin ingested by woodrats at warm (28–29°C) or cool (21–22°C) temperatures. Second, we controlled the daily dose of creosote resin ingested at warm, cool and room (25°C) temperatures, and measured persistence in feeding trials. At the warm temperature, woodrats ingested significantly less creosote resin; their maximum dose was two-thirds that of animals at the cool temperature. Moreover, woodrats at warm and room temperatures could not persist on the same dose of creosote resin as woodrats at the cool temperature. Our findings demonstrate that warmer temperatures reduce PSC intake and tolerance in herbivorous rodents, highlighting the potentially adverse consequences of temperature-dependent toxicity. These results will advance the field of herbivore ecology and may hone predictions of mammalian responses to climate change.  相似文献   

9.
Factors controlling brown trout Salmo trutta recruitment in Mediterranean areas are largely unknown, despite the relevance this may have for fisheries management. The effect of hydrological variability on survival of young brown trout was studied during seven consecutive years in five resident populations from the southern range of the species distribution. Recruit density at the end of summer varied markedly among year-classes and rivers during the study period. Previous work showed that egg density the previous fall did not account for more than 50% of the observed variation in recruitment density. Thus, we expected that climatic patterns, as determinants of discharge and water temperature, would play a role in the control of young trout abundance. We tested this by analyzing the effects of flow variation and predictability on young trout survival during the spawning to emergence and the summer drought periods. Both hatching and emergence times and length of hatching and emergence periods were similar between years within each river but varied considerably among populations, due to differences in water temperature. Interannual variation in flow attributes during spawning to emergence and summer drought affected juvenile survival in all populations, once the effect of endogenous factors was removed. Survival rate was significantly related to the timing, magnitude and duration of extreme water conditions, and to the rate of change in discharge during hatching and emergence times in most rivers. The magnitude and duration of low flows during summer drought appeared to be a critical factor for survival of young trout. Our findings suggest that density-independent factors, i.e., hydrological variability, play a central role in the population dynamics of brown trout in populations from low-latitude range margins. Reported effects of hydrologic attributes on trout survival are likely to be increasingly important if, as predicted, climate change leads to greater extremes and variability of flow regimes.  相似文献   

10.
Both exercise and high ambient temperatures stimulate the secretion of counterregulatory hormones which can change glucose homeostasis. We studied whether in diabetic patients there are any differences in the hormonal response to exercise performed at cool or warm ambient temperatures. A study was performed on eight male insulin-dependent patients at rest and during exercise at +10 degrees C and +30 degrees C. Exercise consisted of three consecutive 15-min periods at 60% of maximal aerobic capacity. The concentrations of plasma lactate and counterregulatory hormones at rest were similar at warm and cool temperature, whereas prolactin concentration was higher (P less than 0.01) at +30 degrees C. Exercise resulted in an increase in noradrenaline, growth hormone and prolactin (P less than 0.01), prevented the diurnal decrease in cortisol, but had no effect on glucagon. Hormone responses to exercise were similar at +10 degrees C and at +30 degrees C, except for cortisol and noradrenaline which showed greater responses at warm than at cool temperatures. This may have been due to the higher relative work load at warm compared to cool temperatures as suggested by the higher heart rate and greater increase of lactate at +30 degrees C. These data indicate that within a range of ambient temperatures commonly occurring in sports, the response of counterregulatory hormones is largely independent of ambient temperature in insulin-dependent diabetic patients.  相似文献   

11.
The durations of the photoperiod-sensitive and photoperiod-insensitivephases of development to panicle emergence were estimated infour contrasting indica cultivars of rice (Oryza sativa L.)in a reciprocal-transfer experiment. Plants were grown in potsin glasshouses maintained at warmer (32/26 C) or cooler (28/20C) day/night temperatures, and the durations from sowing topanicle emergence were determined for plants moved from relativelyshort (11 h) to relatively long (13.5 h) days and vice versaat various times after sowing. Panicle emergence was delayedby long days in all cultivars, but the traditional cvs Carreonand Peta were much more sensitive to photoperiod than the moderncvs IR8 and IR36 The durations of the photoperiod-insensitivepre-inductive phase (equivalent to some definitions of the basicvegetative phase) varied from 14.4 d in cv. Carreon at 32/26C to 42.0 d in cv. IR8 at 28/20 C. In all cultivars this initialphase was of a longer duration in the cool than in the warmregime. The duration of the photoperiod-insensitive post-inductivephase was also consistently greater, but usually only slightso, at cool than relatively warm temperatures; it varied from6.8 d in cv. IR8 at 32/26 C to 272 d in cv. Carreon at 28/20C. As expected, the length of the intervening photoperiod-sensitiveinductive phase was greater in long days, but the effect oftemperature on these durations was not consistent; for example,these durations were longer in warm than in cool temperaturesin cv. 1R8 but, if anything, they were slightly longer in coolthan in warm temperatures in cv. IR36. This difference is compatiblewith previous findings that cv. IR36 has a warmer optimum temperaturefor rate of progress towards panicle emergence than cv. IR8.A subsequent reciprocal-transfer experiment with cv. Peta providedestimates of the durations of the photoperiod-insensitive andphotoperiod-sensitive phases of pre-flowering development whichwere compatible with our earlier estimates. Furthermore, panicleinitiation was found to occur after about 80% of the photoperiod-sensitiveinductive phase had elapsed. We conclude that although the durationof the photoperiod-insensitive pre-inductive phase in rice isgreater than in many other annual crops, genotypic variationin this duration may well be less than was previously deduced.We also conclude that, despite common assumptions to the contrary,photoperiod-sensitivity during rice plant development does notend at panicle initiation. Oryza sativa L., rice, panicle initiation, panicle emergence, photoperiodism, temperature  相似文献   

12.
The relationships between photosynthesis, flowering, and growth temperatures were examined experimentally in four populations of the C4 grass genus Bouteloua. Field-collected plants were grown under two temperature regimes, cool (20 C day/6 C night) and warm (30/16), representative of the extreme populations. Populations collected from the warm climates had significantly lower photosynthetic capacity when grown in the cool chamber relative to the warm chamber, while photosynthetic capacity in the cool climate populations did not differ between the growth conditions. Additionally, exposure to a 2-day cold temperature treatment (10/-2), representative of late-season frosts in high altitude sites, resulted in further reductions in photosynthesis in the warm climate plants, but not in the cool climate plants. This effect was greater for plants grown in the cool growth chamber. Flowering was reduced by 70% in the warm climate plants grown in the cool chamber, and was correlated with photosynthetic inhibition following the short-term cold temperature treatment. These results indicate that genetic differentiation for photosynthetic temperature sensitivity has occurred in the cool climate populations, and that long-term exposure to cool temperatures coupled with short-term relatively extreme low temperatures results in greater photosynthetic inhibition in nontolerant populations.  相似文献   

13.
Life‐history traits such as fecundity and offspring size are shaped by investment trade‐offs faced by mothers and mediated by environmental conditions. We use a 21‐year time series for three populations of wild sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) to test predictions for such trade‐offs and responses to conditions faced by females during migration, and offspring during incubation. In years when their 1100 km upstream migration was challenged by high water discharges, females that reached spawning streams had invested less in gonads by producing smaller but not fewer eggs. These smaller eggs produced lighter juveniles, and this effect was further amplified in years when the incubation water was warm. This latter result suggests that there should be selection for larger eggs to compensate in populations that consistently experience warm incubation temperatures. A comparison among 16 populations, with matching migration and rearing environments but different incubation environments (i.e., separate spawning streams), confirmed this prediction; smaller females produced larger eggs for their size in warmer creeks. Taken together, these results reveal how maternal phenotype and environmental conditions can shape patterns of reproductive investment and consequently juvenile fitness‐related traits within and among populations.  相似文献   

14.
The effects of a non-extractive marine reserve on the recruitment dynamics of haemulid fishes and their predators on Barbados coral reefs were studied using visual census and mark-recapture methods. Size and abundance of piscivores (including large adult grunts) known to prey on grunts were greater within the reserve than on adjacent reefs, whereas size and abundance of older juvenile grunts did not differ between protected and exploited reefs. Recruitment and early juvenile abundance were lower within the reserve and were inversely related to predator density (including adult conspecifics). Patterns in density of new recruits may also have been influenced by oceanographic patterns of supply of larvae. Thus, although protection has a significant positive effect on the size and abundance of large carnivorous fishes, higher predation pressure within a reserve may serve to reduce juvenile recruitment within the reserve. At some size/age, cumulative recruitment due to lower size-specific predation mortality results in higher density within the reserve. This increased density is maintained by the absence of fishing mortality within the reserve. Despite maintaining high spawning biomass of several large, commercially exploited species that may export larvae to downstream areas, the Barbados Marine Reserve appears to be a local sink for juvenile grunts.  相似文献   

15.
Recruitment of walleye (Sander vitreus Mitchill) is limited in irrigation reservoirs of the Republican River basin in southwestern Nebraska. The causal mechanism for this limited recruitment is unknown, but may be related to a lack of suitable spawning habitat. Patch occupancy models were developed to describe variation in detection probability and habitat selection during spawning season using shoreline electrofishing data. Detection of adult walleye was negatively affected by water temperature, silt substrate, and woody cover. Adult walleye selected sites with cooler water temperatures and greater fetch at Enders Reservoir, and large rock substrate and no cover at Hugh Butler Lake; these characteristics are limited to areas on or near the riprap dams in both reservoirs. Walleye eggs were also only found in these areas. We conclude that patch occupancy modeling provided valuable information when considering habitat improvement projects and propose a management approach for the addition of walleye spawning habitat in irrigation reservoirs.  相似文献   

16.
Recruitment of walleye (Sander vitreus Mitchill) is limited in irrigation reservoirs of the Republican River basin in southwestern Nebraska. The causal mechanism for this limited recruitment is unknown, but may be related to a lack of suitable spawning habitat. Patch occupancy models were developed to describe variation in detection probability and habitat selection during spawning season using shoreline electrofishing data. Detection of adult walleye was negatively affected by water temperature, silt substrate, and woody cover. Adult walleye selected sites with cooler water temperatures and greater fetch at Enders Reservoir, and large rock substrate and no cover at Hugh Butler Lake; these characteristics are limited to areas on or near the riprap dams in both reservoirs. Walleye eggs were also only found in these areas. We conclude that patch occupancy modeling provided valuable information when considering habitat improvement projects and propose a management approach for the addition of walleye spawning habitat in irrigation reservoirs.  相似文献   

17.
Thermal biology, and therefore energy acquisition and survival, of ectotherms can be affected by diel and seasonal patterns of environmental temperatures. Galápagos Lava Lizards live in seasonal environments that are characterized by a warm and wet period when reproductive activity is maximal, and cooler and drier period. With the use of radiotelemetric techniques to record lizard surface temperatures (Ts), we studied the thermal ecology of the San Cristóbal Lava Lizard (Microlophus bivittatus) during both the warm and cool seasons over two years. During the diel activity period and when operative temperatures exceeded Tset-min, at least on rock faces without canopy, 52% or less of the Ts observations fell within the laboratory-determined Tset range (36–40 °C). Therefore, lizards may have avoided very warm midday temperatures in shaded microhabitats and the lag times in changes in Ts values occurred as operative temperatures rose rapidly during late morning warming phase. Lizards effectively thermoregulated during a year with moderate warm season temperatures and during a cool season that was unseasonably warm. In contrast, lizards less effectively thermoregulated during the warmest and coolest years of the study. We did not detect intersexual differences in thermoregulation although males may thermoregulate less effectively than do females during the cool season although we were unable to detect significant differences using our nonparametric statistical techniques.  相似文献   

18.
This study explores how variation of macro- and micro-climatic conditions associated with changes in altitude affect early recruitment dynamics of the perennial herb Helleborus foetidus (Ranunculaceae). We also analyse the relevance of facilitation by woody vegetation on seedling recruitment along altitudinal gradient. We conducted a sowing experiment testing the effect of altitude (using three populations located at 1100, 1400 and 1650 m a.s.l.) and woody cover (open areas vs cover of woody species) on seedling emergence during two years and survival three years after sowing. Simultaneously, we characterised elevations and cover types in terms of climatic factors (surface air temperature and relative humidity) throughout a whole year, and light conditions (global site factor and red/infrared ligh ratio) using hemispheric photographs. We detected a significant effect of elevation on seedling emergence, with a higher emergence at lowest altitude. Woody cover greatly affected seedling survival and recruitment, both rates being higher under woody species than in open areas. Emergence was negatively correlated with winter stress factors, which increased with elevation. Survival and recruitment were negatively correlated with summer stress factors, which were ameliorated by woody cover and with altitude. Amelioration of climatic factors by woody cover was not influenced by altitude. Implications for species persistence in Mediterranean mountains under climate change scenarios are discussed.  相似文献   

19.
The dynamics of larval herring in the north-eastern Gulf ofMaine are reviewed with reference to the important physicaland biological oceanographic processes of the region. Particularattention is given to the apparently conflicting hypothesesof larval drift from the tidally well-mixed spawning areas tonursery areas, and larval retention in spawning areas for aperiod of several months. Both processes have been reportedfor the eastern Maine-Grand Manan spawning area of the Gulfof Maine, but the relative importance of each to larval survivalthrough the winter and recruitment to the juvenile stage isnot clear. Both transport and retention are interpreted in lightof oceanographic processes that might impart variability, especiallybetween years, in the proportion of larvae transported awayversus that retained. Results of recent survey cruises in theGulf of Maine show both hypotheses to have merit. It is suggestedthat (i) interannual differences in slope water intrusions intothe Gulf of Maine as they affect the residual circulation, (ii)the lunar periodicity in the intensity of tidal mixing in relationto hatching times, and (iii) the potential for variable spawninglocations relative to the tidal fronts, may affect the distributionsof herring larvae immediately after hatching in the fall, andmay control the proportion of larvae that are advected awaywith the residual currents versus that retained in the vicinityof spawning. It is also suggested that those processes thataffect larval distributions and survival in the fall are importantin determining the overwintering distributions of larvae inthe Gulf of Maine, where the subtle influences of variable foodregimes and water temperatures could potentially exact largeinterannual differences in winter survival and recruitment tothe juvenile stage.  相似文献   

20.
Synopsis Recruitment of juvenile fishes to five 25 m2 quadrats on an extensive natural reef in Kona, Hawaii was monitored over 51 months. Pronounced between-year variability in recruit abundance was evident for some species. Many exhibited strikingly low levels of recruitment. Overall recruitment was highly seasonal with a major peak in June and July, and a generally smaller, secondary peak in February and March. Recruitment was minimal during early winter (October–December) and a review of other studies similarly indicates minimal recruitment in Hawaii during this period. Spawning in Hawaiian fishes generally begins during the winter months of relatively low temperatures, increases during late winter and early summer and declines rapidly as maximum summer water temperatures are reached (September–October). Seasonal changes in food availability, ocean currents or salinity seem unlikely to be responsible for observed patterns of recruitment and spawning. Rather, the patterns appear to be most closely tied to changes in water temperature or photoperiod. Loss of propagules to offshore-moving eddies or other unfavorable currents may be responsible for the low levels of juvenile recruitment found in this and other Hawaiian studies. In Kona, at least 6 species of fishes recruited in pulses during quarter or new moon phases. Four other species have been reported elsewhere in Hawaii to recruit during either new or full moon phases. Lunar spawning periodicity was present in fewer than half of the species so far examined, and no single adaptive function for lunar periodicity was applicable to all species.  相似文献   

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