Comprehensive analysis of autophagy‐related prognostic genes in breast cancer

Accumulating evidence revealed that autophagy played vital roles in breast cancer (BC) progression. Thus, the aim of this study was to investigate the prognostic value of autophagy‐related genes (ARGs) and develop a ARG‐based model to evaluate 5‐year overall survival (OS) in BC patients. We acquired ARG expression profiling in a large BC cohort (N = 1007) from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database. The correlation between ARGs and OS was confirmed by the LASSO and Cox regression analyses. A predictive model was established based on independent prognostic variables. Thus, time‐dependent receiver operating curve (ROC), calibration plot, decision curve and subgroup analysis were conducted to determine the predictive performance of ARG‐based model. Four ARGs (ATG4A, IFNG, NRG1 and SERPINA1) were identified using the LASSO and multivariate Cox regression analyses. A ARG‐based model was constructed based on the four ARGs and two clinicopathological risk factors (age and TNM stage), dividing patients into high‐risk and low‐risk groups. The 5‐year OS of patients in the low‐risk group was higher than that in the high‐risk group (P < 0.0001). Time‐dependent ROC at 5 years indicated that the four ARG–based tool had better prognostic accuracy than TNM stage in the training cohort (AUC: 0.731 vs 0.640, P < 0.01) and validation cohort (AUC: 0.804 vs 0.671, P < 0.01). The mutation frequencies of the four ARGs (ATG4A, IFNG, NRG1 and SERPINA1) were 0.9%, 2.8%, 8% and 1.3%, respectively. We built and verified a novel four ARG–based nomogram, a credible approach to predict 5‐year OS in BC, which can assist oncologists in determining effective therapeutic strategies.     

A predictive model with a risk-classification system for cancer-specific survival in patients with primary osteosarcoma of long bone

BackgroundOsteosarcoma (OS), most commonly occurring in long bone, is a group of malignant tumors with high incidence in adolescents. No individualized model has been developed to predict the prognosis of primary long bone osteosarcoma (PLBOS) and the current AJCC TNM staging system lacks accuracy in prognosis prediction. We aimed to develop a nomogram based on the clinicopathological factors affecting the prognosis of PLBOS patients to help clinicians predict the cancer-specific survival (CSS) of PLBOS patients.MethodWe studied 1199 PLBOS patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database from 2004 to 2015 and randomly divided the dataset into training and validation cohorts at a proportion of 7:3. Independent prognostic factors determined by stepwise multivariate Cox analysis were included in the nomogram and risk-stratification system. C-index, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to verify the performance of the nomogram.ResultsAge, Histological type, Surgery of primary site, Tumor size, Local extension, Regional lymph node (LN) invasion, and Distant metastasis were identified as independent prognostic factors. C-indexes, calibration curves and DCAs of the nomogram indicating that the nomogram had good discrimination and validity. The risk-stratification system based on the nomogram showed significant differences (P < 0.05) in CSS among different risk groups.ConclusionWe established a nomogram with risk-stratification system to predict CSS in PLBOS patients and demonstrated that the nomogram had good performance. This model can help clinicians evaluate prognoses, identify high-risk individuals, and give individualized treatment recommendation of PLBOS patients.     

Development and validation of robust metabolism-related gene signature in the prognostic prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most common malignant tumours worldwide. Given metabolic reprogramming in tumours was a crucial hallmark, several studies have demonstrated its value in the diagnostics and surveillance of malignant tumours. The present study aimed to identify a cluster of metabolism-related genes to construct a prediction model for the prognosis of HCC. Multiple cohorts of HCC cases (466 cases) from public datasets were included in the present analysis. (GEO cohort) After identifying a list of metabolism-related genes associated with prognosis, a risk score based on metabolism-related genes was formulated via the LASSO-Cox and LASSO-pcvl algorithms. According to the risk score, patients were stratified into low- and high-risk groups, and further analysis and validation were accordingly conducted. The results revealed that high-risk patients had a significantly worse 5-year overall survival (OS) than low-risk patients in the GEO cohort. (30.0% vs. 57.8%; hazard ratio [HR], 0.411; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.302–0.651; p < 0.001) This observation was confirmed in the external TCGA-LIHC cohort. (34.5% vs. 54.4%; HR 0.452; 95% CI, 0.299–0.681; p < 0.001) To promote the predictive ability of the model, risk score, age, gender and tumour stage were integrated into a nomogram. According to the results of receiver operating characteristic curves and decision curves analysis, the nomogram score possessed a superior predictive ability than conventional factors, which indicate that the risk score combined with clinicopathological features was able to achieve a robust prediction for OS and improve the individualized clinical decision making of HCC patients. In conclusion, the metabolic genes related to OS were identified and developed a metabolism-based predictive model for HCC. Through a series of bioinformatics and statistical analyses, the predictive ability of the model was approved.     

Prediction of prognosis of patients with lung cancer in combination with the immune score

Purpose: The host’s immune response to malignant tumor is fundamental to tumorigenesis and tumor development. The immune score is currently used to assess prognosis and to guide immunotherapy; however, its association with lung cancer prognosis is not clear.Methods: Clinical features and immune score data of lung cancer patients from The Cancer Genome Atlas were obtained to build a clinical prognosis nomogram. The model’s accuracy was verified by calibration curves.Results: In total, 1005 patients with lung cancer were included. Patients were divided into three groups according to low, medium, and high immune scores. Compared with patients in the low immune score group, the disease-free survival (DFS) of patients in medium and high immune score groups was significantly longer; the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were 0.77 [0.60–0.99] and 0.74 [0.60–0.91], respectively. The overall survival (OS) of patients in the medium and high immune score groups was significantly longer than in the low immune score group; the HR and 95% CI were 0.74 [0.57–0.96] and 0.69 [0.55–0.88], respectively. A clinical prediction model was established to predict the survival prognosis. As verified by calibration curves, the model showed good predictive ability, especially for predicting 3-/5-year DFS and OS.Conclusion: Patients with lung cancer with medium and high immune scores had longer DFS and OS than those in low immune score group. Patient prognosis can be effectively predicted by the clinical prediction model combining clinical features and immune score and was consistent with actual clinical outcomes.     

Development and Validation of a Nomogram for Predicting Overall Survival in Pancreatic NeuroendocrineTumors

BACKGROUND: The objective of current study was to develop and validate a nomogram to predict overall survival in pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (PNETs). METHODS: The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database was queried for patients with PNETs between 2004 and 2015. Patients were randomly separated into the training set and the validation set. Cox regression model was used in training set to obtain independent prognostic factors to develop a nomogram for predicting overall survival (OS). The discrimination and calibration plots were used to evaluate the predictive accuracy of the nomogram. RESULTS: A total of 3142 patients with PNETs were collected from the SEER database. Sex, age, marital status, primary site, TNM stage, tumor grade, and therapy were associated with OS in the multivariate models. A nomogram was constructed based on these variables. The nomogram for predicting OS displayed better discrimination power than the Tumor-Node-Metastasis (TNM) stage systems 7th edition in the training set and validation set. The calibration curve indicated that the nomogram was able to accurately predict 3- and 5-year OS. CONCLUSIONS: The nomogram which could predict 3- and 5-year OS were established in this study. Our nomogram showed a good performance, suggesting that it could be served as an effective tool for prognostic evaluation of patients with PNETs.     

Development and validation of two nomograms for predicting overall survival and cancer-specific survival in gastric cancer patients with liver metastases: A retrospective cohort study from SEER database

BackgroundGastric cancer is heterogeneous and aggressive, especially with liver metastasis. This study aims to develop two nomograms to predict the overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) of gastric cancer with liver metastasis (GCLM) patients.MethodsFrom January 2000 to December 2018, a total of 1936 GCLM patients were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER) database. They were further divided into a training cohort and a validation cohort, with the OS and CSS serving as the study's endpoints. The correlation analyses were used to determine the relationship between the variables. The univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were used to confirm the independent prognostic factors. To discriminate and calibrate the nomogram, calibration curves and the area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve (time-dependent AUC) were used. DCA curves were used to examine the accuracy and clinical benefits. The clinical utility of the nomogram and the AJCC Stage System was compared using net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated differentiation improvement (IDI) (IDI). Finally, the nomogram and the AJCC Stage System risk stratifications were compared.ResultsThere was no collinearity among the variables that were screened. The results of multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that six variables (bone metastasis, lung metastasis, surgery, chemotherapy, grade, age) and five variables (lung metastasis, surgery, chemotherapy, grade, N stage) were identified to establish the nomogram for OS and CSS, respectively. The calibration curves, time-dependent AUC curves, and DCA revealed that both nomograms had pleasant predictive power. Furthermore, NRI and IDI confirmed that the nomogram outperformed the AJCC Stage System.ConclusionBoth nomograms had satisfactory accuracy and were validated to assist clinicians in evaluating the prognosis of GCLM patients.     

ERCC1 expression as a prognostic and predictive factor in patients with non-small cell lung cancer: a meta-analysis

It is hypothesized that high expression of the excision repair cross-complementation group 1 (ERCC1) gene might be a positive prognostic factor, but predict decreased sensitivity to platinum-based chemotherapy. Results from the published data are inconsistent. To derive a more precise estimation of the relationship between ERCC1 and the prognosis and predictive response to chemotherapy of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), a meta-analysis was performed. An electronic search of the PubMed and Embase database was performed. Hazard ratio (HR) for overall survival (OS) was pooled in early stage patients received surgery alone to analyze the prognosis of ERCC1 on NSCLC. HRs for OS in patients received surgery plus adjuvant chemotherapy and in patients received palliative chemotherapy and relative risk (RR) for overall response to chemotherapy were aggregated to analyze the prediction of ERCC1 on NSCLC. The pooled HR indicated that high ERCC1 levels were associated with longer survival in early stage patients received surgery alone (HR, 0.69; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.58–0.83; P = 0.000). There was no difference in survival between high and low ERCC1 levels in patients received surgery plus adjuvant chemotherapy (HR, 1.41; 95% CI, 0.93–2.12; P = 0.106). However, high ERCC1 levels were associated with shorter survival and lower response to chemotherapy in advanced NSCLC patients received palliative chemotherapy (HR, 1.75; 95% CI, 1.39–2.22; P = 0.000; RR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.64–0.93; P = 0.007; respectively). The meta-analysis indicated that high ERCC1 expression might be a favourable prognostic and a drug resistance predictive factor for NSCLC.     

Development and validation of a nomogram to predict overall survival of T1 esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients with lymph node metastasis

PurposeTo develop a nomogram for predicting the prognosis of T1 esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients with positive lymph node.MethodsT1 ESCC patients with lymph node metastasis diagnosed between 2010 and 2015 were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and Final Results (SEER) database. The entire cohort was randomly divided in the ratio of 7:3 into a training group (n=457) and validation group (n=192), respectively. Prognostic factors were identified by univariate and multivariate Cox regression models. Harrell''s concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and calibration curve were used to evaluate the discrimination and calibration of the nomogram. The accuracy and clinical net benefit of the nomogram compared with the 7^th AJCC staging system were evaluated using net reclassification improvement (NRI), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and decision curve analysis (DCA).ResultsThe nomogram consisted of eight factors: insurance, T stage, summary stage, primary site, radiation code, chemotherapy, surgery, and radiation sequence with surgery. In the training and validation cohorts, the AUCs exceeded 0.700, and the C-index scores were 0.749 and 0.751, respectively, indicating that the nomogram had good discrimination. The consistency between the survival probability predicted by the nomogram and the actual observed probability was indicated by the calibration curve in the training and validation cohorts. For NRI>0 and IDI>0, the predictive power of the nomogram was more accurate than that of the 7^th AJCC staging system. Furthermore, the DCA curve indicated that the nomogram achieved better clinical utility than the traditional system.ConclusionsUnlike the 7^th AJCC staging system, the developed and validated nomogram can help clinical staff to more accurately, personally and comprehensively predict the 1-year and 3-year OS probability of T1 ESCC patients with lymph node metastasis.     

Identification of five long noncoding RNAs signature and risk score for prognosis of bladder urothelial carcinoma

Nowadays, an increasing number of studies illustrated that bladder urothelial cancer (BLCA) may act as the most common subtype of urological malignancies with a high rate of recurrence and metastasis. In this study, we attempted to establish a prognostic model and identify the possible pathway crosstalk. Long noncoding RNAs (lncRNAs) and mRNA expression and corresponding clinical information of patients with BLCA were downloaded from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). The differentially expressed genes analysis, univariate Cox analysis, the least absolute shrinkage, and selection operator Cox (LASSO Cox) regression model were then applied to identify five crucial lncRNAs (AC092725.1, AC104071.1, AL023584.1, AL132642.1, and AL137804.1). The multivariate cox analysis was utilized to calculate the regression coefficients (β_i). The risk-score model was subsequently constructed as follows: (0.13541AC092725.1) + (0.20968AC104071.1) + (0.1525AL023584.1) − (0.14768AL132642.1) + (0.14387AL137804.1). Nomogram and assessment of overall survival (OS) prediction were verificated by the receiver operating characteristic curve in the testing group. As to 3-, 5-year OS prediction, the area under curve (AUC) for the nomogram of training data set was 0.83 and 0.86. Besides, the AUC (0.883 and 0.879) presented excellent predictive power in the testing group. In addition, the calibration plots validated the predictive performance of the nomogram. Weighted correlation network analysis (WGCNA) coupled with functional enrichment analysis contributed to explore the potential pathways, including PI3K-Akt, HIF-1, and Jak-STAT signaling pathways. Construction of the risk-score model and data analysis were both derived from multiple packages on the basis of the R platform chiefly.     

A ten-gene methylation signature as a novel biomarker for improving prediction of prognosis and indicating gene targets in endometrial cancer

Endometrial cancer (EC) is a common female reproductive tumor worldwide. Nonetheless, the pathogenesis of EC still remains ambiguous and associated epigenetic mechanism still to be explored. The goal of this study is to investigate whether gene methylation signature is associated with overall survival (OS) for EC patients. In this study, a 10-gene methylation risk model was built and the OS in high- and low-risk groups was significant different. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) of this model was 0.856 at 5 years survival. The nomogram could accurately predict the OS in EC patients, with concordance index and AUC at 5 year survival reached 0.796 and 0.792, respectively. Furthermore, we verified the nomogram with 24 patients in our center and the Kaplan-Meier survival curve also proved to be significantly different (p < 0.01). WGCNA revealed a key gene group for the model and further bioinformatics analysis indicated 6 genes as the hub genes in the module. Knockdown of MMP12 inhibited the proliferation, invasion and metastasis of EC cells. After all, a methylation signature and a nomogram based on this signature were constructed, and they could both predict survival in patients with EC. Moreover, WGCNA model identified MMP12 as a potential target for the treatment of EC.     

Development and verification of a nomogram for prediction of recurrence‐free survival in clear cell renal cell carcinoma

Nowadays, gene expression profiling has been widely used in screening out prognostic biomarkers in numerous kinds of carcinoma. Our studies attempt to construct a clinical nomogram which combines risk gene signature and clinical features for individual recurrent risk assessment and offer personalized managements for clear cell renal cell carcinoma. A total of 580 differentially expressed genes (DEGs) were identified via microarray. Functional analysis revealed that DEGs are of fundamental importance in ccRCC progression and metastasis. In our study, 338 ccRCC patients were retrospectively analysed and a risk gene signature which composed of 5 genes was obtained from a LASSO Cox regression model. Further analysis revealed that identified risk gene signature could usefully distinguish the patients with poor prognosis in training cohort (hazard ratio [HR] = 3.554, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.261‐7.472, P < .0001, n = 107). Moreover, the prognostic value of this gene‐signature was independent of clinical features (P = .002). The efficacy of risk gene signature was verified in both internal and external cohorts. The area under receiver operating characteristic curve of this signature was 0.770, 0.765 and 0.774 in the training, testing and external validation cohorts, respectively. Finally, a nomogram was developed for clinicians and did well in the calibration plots. This nomogram based on risk gene signature and clinical features might provide a practical way for recurrence prediction and facilitating personalized managements of ccRCC patients after surgery.     

A preoperative model for predicting microvascular invasion and assisting in prognostic stratification in liver transplantation for HCC regarding empirical criteria

PurposeThe prediction of microvascular invasion (MVI) has increasingly been recognized to reflect prognosis involving local invasion and distant metastasis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The aim of this study was to assess a predictive model using preoperatively accessible clinical parameters and radiographic features developed and validated to predict MVI. This predictive model can distinguish clinical outcomes after liver transplantation (LT) for HCC patients.MethodsIn total, 455 HCC patients who underwent LT between January 1, 2015, and December 31, 2019, were retrospectively enrolled in two centers in China as a training cohort (ZFA center; n = 244) and a test cohort (SLA center; n = 211). Univariate and multivariate backward logistic regression analysis were used to select the significant clinical variables which were incorporated into the predictive nomogram associated with MVI. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves based on clinical parameters were plotted to predict MVI in the training and test sets.ResultsUnivariate and multivariate backward logistic regression analysis identified four independent preoperative risk factors for MVI: α-fetoprotein (AFP) level (p < 0.001), tumor size ((p < 0.001), peritumoral star node (p = 0.003), and tumor margin (p = 0.016). The predictive nomogram using these predictors achieved an area under curve (AUC) of 0.85 and 0.80 in the training and test sets. Furthermore, MVI could discriminate different clinical outcomes within the Milan criteria (MC) and beyond the MC.ConclusionsThe nomogram based on preoperatively clinical variables demonstrated good performance for predicting MVI. MVI may serve as a supplement to the MC.     

Ultrasound-Based Risk Stratification System for the Assessment of Partially Cystic Thyroid Nodules

ObjectiveTo develop and validate a risk stratification system for the prediction of malignancy in partially cystic thyroid nodules (PCTNs).MethodsWe retrospectively reviewed the sonography data of patients with PCTNs from 2 medical centers—Hangzhou Traditional Chinese Medicine Hospital and Hangzhou First People’s Hospital—from January 2020 to December 2021. The independent risk factors for malignant PCTNs were evaluated using the univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. The nomogram prediction efficiency was assessed using the area under the curve and calibration curves. The decision curve analysis was used to determine the clinical value of the predictive model.ResultsA total of 285 patients were enrolled in this retrospective study, and of 301 PCTNs, 242 were benign and 59 were malignant. Younger age, hypoechoic, irregular margin, and microcalcifications were found to be the independent risk factors for malignant PCTNs. The area under the curve, sensitivity, and specificity were 0.860, 77.1%, and 84.7% in the training data set and 0.897, 91.7%, and 87.0% in the external validation data set, respectively. The total point of nomogram was >161, which showed the best to predict malignancy in PCTNs.ConclusionOur findings demonstrated that the risk stratification system for the assessment of PCTNs showed good prediction capacities.     

Intravoxel incoherent motion radiomics nomogram for predicting tumor treatment responses in nasopharyngeal carcinoma

BackgroundIntravoxel incoherent motion (IVIM) plays an important role in predicting treatment responses in patient with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). The goal of this study was to develop and validate a radiomics nomogram based on IVIM parametric maps and clinical data for the prediction of treatment responses in NPC patients.MethodsEighty patients with biopsy-proven NPC were enrolled in this study. Sixty-two patients had complete responses and 18 patients had incomplete responses to treatment. Each patient received a multiple b-value diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) examination before treatment. Radiomics features were extracted from IVIM parametric maps derived from DWI image. Feature selection was performed by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method. Radiomics signature was generated by support vector machine based on the selected features. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and area under the ROC curve (AUC) values were used to evaluate the diagnostic performance of radiomics signature. A radiomics nomogram was established by integrating the radiomics signature and clinical data.ResultsThe radiomics signature showed good prognostic performance to predict treatment response in both training (AUC = 0.906, P<0.001) and testing (AUC = 0.850, P<0.001) cohorts. The radiomic nomogram established by integrating the radiomic signature with clinical data significantly outperformed clinical data alone (C-index, 0.929 vs 0.724; P<0.0001).ConclusionsThe IVIM-based radiomics nomogram provided high prognostic ability to treatment responses in patients with NPC. The IVIM-based radiomics signature has the potential to be a new biomarker in prediction of the treatment responses and may affect treatment strategies in patients with NPC.     

Preoperative albumin-to-globulin ratio predicts survival in patients with non-small-cell lung cancer after surgery

The prognostic value of the preoperative albumin-to-globulin ratio (AGR) has not been investigated in non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Therefore, we aimed to assess the clinical applicability of the preoperative AGR to predict the prognosis in patients with NSCLC. We retrospectively enrolled 545 patients with stage I/II/III NSCLC who underwent surgery at our institution. The cutoff value for preoperative AGR was calculated by using a receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. A low AGR was associated with several clinicopathological variables related to tumor progression. In the multivariate analyses, the preoperative AGR was identified as an independent prognostic factor for disease-free survival (DFS; P = 0.003) and overall survival (OS; P = 0.005). For patients with stage II and III with a preoperative AGR ≤ 1.43, the surgery plus chemotherapy group had a significantly longer DFS and OS than the surgery alone group (P = 0.002 and P = 0.001, respectively); however, a significant difference in DFS and OS between these two groups was not observed in patients with stage II and III with an AGR > 1.43 (P = 0.808 and P = 0.842, respectively). The preoperative AGR is an independent, significant predictor of DFS and OS in patients with NSCLC. Our results also demonstrate that the preoperative AGR might be a predictive marker of the therapeutic effect of postoperative chemotherapy in patients with stage II and III NSCLC.     

Comparative study of radiomics,tumor morphology,and clinicopathological factors in predicting overall survival of patients with rectal cancer before surgery

We compared the ability of a radiomics model, morphological imaging model, and clinicopathological risk model to predict 3-year overall survival (OS) in 206 patients with rectal cancer who underwent radical surgery and had magnetic resonance imaging, clinicopathological, and OS data available. The patients were randomized to a training cohort (n = 146) and a verification cohort (n = 60). Radiomics features were extracted from preoperative T2-weighted images, and a radiomics score model was constructed. Factors that were significant in the Cox multivariate analysis were used to construct the final morphological tumor model and clinicopathological model. A comprehensive model in the form of a line chart was established by combining the three models. Ten radiomics features significantly related to OS were selected to construct the radiomics feature model and calculate the radiomics score. In the morphological model, mesorectal extension depth and distance between the lower tumor margin and the anal margin were significant prognostic factors. N stage was the only significant clinicopathological factor. The comprehensive model combined with the above factors had the best prediction performance for OS. The C-index had a predictive performance of 0.872 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.832–0.912) in the training cohort and 0.944 (95% CI: 0.890–0.990) in the verification cohort, which was better than for any single model. The comprehensive model was divided into high-risk and low-risk groups. Kaplan-Meier curve analysis showed that all factors were significantly correlated with poor OS in the high-risk group. A comprehensive nomogram based on multi-model radiomics features can predict 3-year OS after rectal cancer surgery.     

Evaluation of serum exosomal LncRNA‐based biomarker panel for diagnosis and recurrence prediction of bladder cancer

Exosomes are small membrane vesicles released by many cells. These vesicles can mediate cellular communications by transmitting active molecules including long non‐coding RNAs (lncRNAs). In this study, our aim was to identify a panel of lncRNAs in serum exosomes for the diagnosis and recurrence prediction of bladder cancer (BC). The expressions of 11 candidate lncRNAs in exosome were investigated in training set (n = 200) and an independent validation set (n = 320) via quantitative real‐time PCR. A three‐lncRNA panel (PCAT‐1, UBC1 and SNHG16) was finally identified by multivariate logistic regression model to provide high diagnostic accuracy for BC with an area under the receiver‐operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.857 and 0.826 in training set and validation set, respectively, which was significantly higher than that of urine cytology. The corresponding AUCs of this panel for patients with Ta, T1 and T2‐T4 were 0.760, 0.827 and 0.878, respectively. In addition, Kaplan‐Meier analysis showed that non‐muscle‐invasive BC (NMIBC) patients with high UBC1 expression had significantly lower recurrence‐free survival (P = 0.01). Multivariate Cox analysis demonstrated that UBC1 was independently associated with tumour recurrence of NMIBC (P = 0.018). Our study suggested that lncRNAs in serum exosomes may serve as considerable diagnostic and prognostic biomarkers of BC.     

Identification of survival-related alternative splicing signatures in acute myeloid leukemia

Aberrant RNA alternative splicing (AS) variants play critical roles in tumorigenesis and prognosis in human cancers. Here, we conducted a comprehensive profiling of aberrant AS events in acute myeloid leukemia (AML). RNA AS profile, including seven AS types, and the percent spliced in (PSI) value for each patient were generated by SpliceSeq using RNA-seq data from TCGA. Univariate followed by multivariate Cox regression analysis were used to identify survival-related AS events and develop the AS signatures. A nomogram was developed, and its predictive efficacy was assessed. About 27,892 AS events and 3,178 events were associated with overall survival (OS) after strict filtering. Parent genes of survival-associated AS events were mainly enriched in leukemia-associated processes including chromatin modification, autophagy, and T-cell receptor signaling pathway. The 10 AS signature based on seven types of AS events showed better efficacy in predicting OS of patients than those built on a single AS event type. The area under curve (AUC) value of the 10 AS signature for 3-year OS was 0.91. Gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA) confirmed that these survival-related AS events contribute to AML progression. Moreover, the nomogram showed good predictive performance for patient''s prognosis. Finally, the correlation network of AS variants with splicing factor genes found potential important regulatory genes in AML. The present study presented a systematic analysis of survival-related AS events and developed AS signatures for predicting the patient’s survival. Further studies are needed to validate the signatures in independent AML cohorts and might provide a promising perspective for developing therapeutic targets.     

Prognostic value of a gene signature in clear cell renal cell carcinoma

Renal cancer is a common urogenital system malignance. Novel biomarkers could provide more and more critical information on tumor features and patients’ prognosis. Here, we performed an integrated analysis on the discovery set and established a three-gene signature to predict the prognosis for clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC). By constructing a LASSO Cox regression model, a 3-messenger RNA (3-mRNA) signature was identified. Based on the 3-mRNA signature, we divided patients into high- and low-risk groups, and validated this by using three other data sets. In the discovery set, this signature could successfully distinguish between the high- and low-risk patients (hazard ratio (HR), 2.152; 95% confidence interval (CI),1.509–3.069; p < 0.0001). Analysis of internal and two external validation sets yielded consistent results (internal: HR, 2.824; 95% CI, 1.601–4.98; p < 0.001; GSE29609: HR, 3.002; 95% CI, 1.113–8.094; p = 0.031; E-MTAB-3267: HR, 2.357; 95% CI, 1.243–4.468; p = 0.006). Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis indicated that the area under the ROC curve at 5 years was 0.66 both in the discovery and internal validation set, while the two external validation sets also suggested good performance of the 3-mRNA signature. Besides that, a nomogram was built and the calibration plots and decision curve analysis indicated the good performance and clinical utility of the nomogram. In conclusion, this 3-mRNA classifier proved to be a useful tool for prognostic evaluation and could facilitate personalized management of ccRCC patients.     

A Novel Nomogram for Predicting the Overall Survival in Patients with Unresectable HCC after TACE plus Hepatic Arterial Infusion Chemotherapy

Background and aimTransarterial chemoembolization combined with hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy (TACE-HAIC) has shown encouraging efficacy in the treatment of unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We aimed to develop a novel nomogram to predict overall survival (OS) of patients with unresectable HCC treated with TACE-HAIC.MethodsA total of 591 patients with unresectable HCC treated with TACE-HAIC between May 2009 and September 2020 were enrolled. These patients were randomly divided into training and validation cohorts. The independent prognostic factors were identified with Cox proportional hazards model. The model's discriminative ability and accuracy were validated using concordance index (C-index), calibration plots, the area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and decision curve analyses (DCAs).ResultsThe median OS was 15.6 months. A nomogram was established based on these factors, including tumor size, vein invasion, extrahepatic metastasis, tumor number, alpha fetoprotein (AFP), and albumin-bilirubin (ALBI), to predict OS for patients with unresectable HCC treated with TACE-HAIC. The C-index of the nomogram were 0.717 in the training cohort and 0.724 in validation cohort. The calibration plots demonstrated good agreement between the predicted outcomes and the actual observations. The AUC values were better than those of three conventional staging systems. The results of DCA indicated that the nomogram may have clinical usefulness. The patients in the low-risk group had a longer OS than those in intermediate-risk and high-risk groups (P<0.001).ConclusionA prognostic nomogram was developed and validated to assist clinicians in accurately predicting the OS of patients with unresectable HCC after TACE-HAIC.