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1.
Seed dormancy is thought to be a key mechanism allowing annual plants to spread extinction risk in unpredictably varying environments. Theory predicts increasing germination fractions with increasing probability of reproductive success but solid empirical evidence is scarce and often confounded with environmental factors. Here we provide an empirical test of bet‐hedging via delayed germination for three annual plant species along a ‘predictability gradient’ in Israel. We excluded confounding environmental and maternal effects by raising inbred seed families and germinating them under controlled conditions. Additionally, we germinated field‐collected seeds in three consecutive seasons to compare their germination with inbred families where maternal effects were removed. Risk of reproductive failure was quantified using demographic data from the field and from second‐generation inbred lines raised in a rainfall gradient in the greenhouse. Our findings were consistent with bet‐hedging theory in that germination fraction was negatively related to species‐ and site‐specific risk of reproductive failure. Both field and hand‐raised seeds of one species exhibited higher dormancy with increasing risk of reproductive failure across sites, and hand‐raised seeds of another species showed the same pattern. The third species exhibited a rather random pattern of germination between years and sites, corresponding to the lack of site‐specific risk of reproductive failure. Species‐specific patterns of dormancy and risk could be related to alternative risk‐spreading strategies such as high adult survival, but were also affected by phylogeny. We provide strong empirical evidence for seed dormancy being a mechanism to reduce the risk of reproductive failure in highly variable environments, but a larger number of rigorous experimental tests of bet hedging germination are needed. Specifically, the genetic basis of bet‐hedging must be shown in species with different life histories, for demonstrating that dormancy is adaptive and how it is modified by other risk‐spreading traits.  相似文献   

2.
Genotypes can persist in unpredictable environments by “hedging their bets” and producing diverse phenotypes. Theoretical studies have shown that the phenotypic variability needed for a bet‐hedging strategy can be generated by factors either inside or outside an organism. However, sensing the environment and bet hedging are frequently treated as distinct evolutionary strategies. Furthermore, nearly all empirical studies of the molecular underpinnings of bet‐hedging strategies to date have focused on internal sources of variability. We took a synthetic approach and constructed an experimental system where a phenotypic trade‐off is mediated by actively sensing a cue present in the environment. We show that active sensing can generate a diversified bet‐hedging strategy. Mutations affecting the norm of reaction to the cue alter the diversification strategy, indicating that bet hedging by active sensing is evolvable. Our results indicate that a broader class of biological systems should be considered as potential examples of bet‐hedging strategies, and that research into the structure of environmental variability is needed to distinguish bet‐hedging strategies from adaptive plasticity.  相似文献   

3.
Environmental unpredictability is known to result in the evolution of bet‐hedging traits. Variable dormancy enhances survival through harsh conditions, and is widely cited as a diversification bet‐hedging trait. The floating aquatic plant, Spirodela polyrhiza (Greater Duckweed), provides an opportunity to study diversification because although partially reliable seasonal cues exist, its growing season is subject to an unpredictable and literally “hard” termination when the surface water freezes, and overwinter survival depends on a switch from production of normal daughter fronds to production of dense, sinking “turions” prior to freeze‐over. The problem for S. polyrhiza is that diversified dormancy behavior must be generated among clonally produced, genetically identical offspring. Variation in phenology has been observed in the field, but its sources are unknown. Here, we investigate sources of phenological variation in turion production, and test the hypothesis that diversification in turion phenology is generated within genetic lineages through effects of parental birth order. As expected, phenotypic plasticity to temperature is expressed along a thermal gradient; more interestingly, parental birth order was found to have a significant and strong effect on turion phenology: Turions are produced earlier by late birth‐order parents. These results hold regardless of whether turion phenology is measured as first turion birth order, time to first turion, or turion frequency. This study addresses a question of current interest on potential mechanisms generating diversification, and suggests that consistent phenotypic differences across birth orders generate life history variation.  相似文献   

4.
To cope with temporal and spatial heterogeneity of habitats, herbivorous insects in the temperate zone usually enter diapause that facilitates synchronization of their life cycle with specific stages of host plants, such as fruit ripening. In the present study, we address those factors regulating dormancy responses as part of a ‘longer strategy’ to persist and thrive in temperate environments, focusing on Rhagoletis cerasi, a univoltine, oligophagous species, which overwinters as pupae and emerges when host fruits are available for oviposition at local scale. To ensure population survival and reproduction at habitats with ecological heterogeneity, R. cerasi has evolved a sophisticated diapause strategy based on a combination of local adaptation and diversified bet‐hedging strategies. Diapause duration is determined both by (i) the adaptive response to local host fruit phenology patterns (annual diapause) and (ii) the plastic responses to unpredictable inter‐annual (temporal) climatic variability that drives a proportion of the populations to extend dormancy by entering a second, successive, facultative cycle of prolonged diapause as part of a bet‐hedging strategy. Besides the dormant periods, post‐diapause development (which varies among populations) exerts ‘fine tune’ adjustments that assure synchronization and may correct possible errors. Adults emerging from pupae with prolonged diapause are larger in body size compared with counterparts emerging during the first year of diapause. However, female fecundity rates are reduced, followed by an extended post‐oviposition period, whereas adult longevity remains unaffected. Overall, it appears that R. cerasi populations are adapted to ecological conditions of local habitats and respond plastically to unpredictable environmental (climatic) conditions.  相似文献   

5.
Organisms use various strategies to cope with fluctuating environmental conditions. In diversified bet‐hedging, a single genotype exhibits phenotypic heterogeneity with the expectation that some individuals will survive transient selective pressures. To date, empirical evidence for bet‐hedging is scarce. Here, we observe that individual Drosophila melanogaster flies exhibit striking variation in light‐ and temperature‐preference behaviors. With a modeling approach that combines real world weather and climate data to simulate temperature preference‐dependent survival and reproduction, we find that a bet‐hedging strategy may underlie the observed interindividual behavioral diversity. Specifically, bet‐hedging outcompetes strategies in which individual thermal preferences are heritable. Animals employing bet‐hedging refrain from adapting to the coolness of spring with increased warm‐seeking that inevitably becomes counterproductive in the hot summer. This strategy is particularly valuable when mean seasonal temperatures are typical, or when there is considerable fluctuation in temperature within the season. The model predicts, and we experimentally verify, that the behaviors of individual flies are not heritable. Finally, we model the effects of historical weather data, climate change, and geographic seasonal variation on the optimal strategies underlying behavioral variation between individuals, characterizing the regimes in which bet‐hedging is advantageous.  相似文献   

6.
Adaptive phenotypic plasticity evolves when cues reliably predict fitness consequences of life‐history decisions, whereas bet hedging evolves when environments are unpredictable. These modes of response should be jointly expressed, because environmental variance is composed of both predictable and unpredictable components. However, little attention has been paid to the joint expression of plasticity and bet hedging. Here, I examine the simultaneous expression of plasticity in germination rate and two potential bet‐hedging traits – germination fraction and within‐season diversification in timing of germination – in seeds from multiple seed families of five geographically distant populations of Lobelia inflata (L.) subjected to a thermal gradient. Populations differ in germination plasticity to temperature, in total germination fraction and in the expression of potential diversification in the timing of germination. The observation of a negative partial correlation between the expression of plasticity and germination variance (potential diversification), and a positive correlation between plasticity and germination fraction is suggestive of a trade‐off between modes of response to environmental variance. If the observed correlations are indicative of those between adaptive plasticity and bet hedging, we expect an optimal balance to exist and differ among populations. I discuss the challenges involved in testing whether the balance between plasticity and bet hedging depends on the relative predictability of environmental variance.  相似文献   

7.
Competing theoretical models make different predictions on which life history strategies facilitate growth of small populations. While ‘fast’ strategies allow for rapid increase in population size and limit vulnerability to stochastic events, ‘slow’ strategies and bet‐hedging may reduce variance in vital rates in response to stochasticity. We test these predictions using biological invasions since founder alien populations start small, compiling the largest dataset yet of global herpetological introductions and life history traits. Using state‐of‐the‐art phylogenetic comparative methods, we show that successful invaders have fast traits, such as large and frequent clutches, at both establishment and spread stages. These results, together with recent findings in mammals and plants, support ‘fast advantage’ models and the importance of high potential population growth rate. Conversely, successful alien birds are bet‐hedgers. We propose that transient population dynamics and differences in longevity and behavioural flexibility can help reconcile apparently contrasting results across terrestrial vertebrate classes.  相似文献   

8.
Understanding how organisms adapt to environmental variation is a key challenge of biology. Central to this are bet‐hedging strategies that maximize geometric mean fitness across generations, either by being conservative or diversifying phenotypes. Theoretical models have identified environmental variation across generations with multiplicative fitness effects as driving the evolution of bet‐hedging. However, behavioral ecology has revealed adaptive responses to additive fitness effects of environmental variation within lifetimes, either through insurance or risk‐sensitive strategies. Here, we explore whether the effects of adaptive insurance interact with the evolution of bet‐hedging by varying the position and skew of both arithmetic and geometric mean fitness functions. We find that insurance causes the optimal phenotype to shift from the peak to down the less steeply decreasing side of the fitness function, and that conservative bet‐hedging produces an additional shift on top of this, which decreases as adaptive phenotypic variation from diversifying bet‐hedging increases. When diversifying bet‐hedging is not an option, environmental canalization to reduce phenotypic variation is almost always favored, except where the tails of the fitness function are steeply convex and produce a novel risk‐sensitive increase in phenotypic variance akin to diversifying bet‐hedging. Importantly, using skewed fitness functions, we provide the first model that explicitly addresses how conservative and diversifying bet‐hedging strategies might coexist.  相似文献   

9.
The production of dormant eggs is a crucial adaptation for African killifish of the genus Nothobranchius to survive in temporary waters. These habitats are often characterized by unpredictable variation in the suitability of growing seasons as a result of variable lengths of inundations and temporary colonization by piscivorous fish. Incomplete hatching could enable killifish to buffer against reproductive failure during unsuitable inundations. Although this phenomenon has been tentatively linked to variation in dormancy states, it has never been investigated under controlled conditions and its viability as a bet hedging strategy to distribute offspring over several inundations remains unclear. In the present study, we used common garden experiments to assess the contribution of environmental modulation and bet hedging to delayed hatching in Nothobranchius killifish by testing the feasibility of arrested development in the presence and absence of environmental cues. Overall, the results confirmed that the presence of cues signalling a threat (predator kairomones) inhibited hatching. However, delayed development also occurred independent of cues and was regulated at two stages. Developmental arrest in energy‐efficient dormancy stages could present a means for long‐term bet hedging over years, whereas arrest in the energy‐consuming final stage may serve a similar purpose over shorter time scales. © 2015 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2015, 114 , 941–948.  相似文献   

10.
Females that mate with multiple males (polyandry) may reduce the risk that their eggs are fertilized by a single unsuitable male. About 25 years ago it was hypothesized that bet‐hedging could function as a mechanism favoring the evolution of polyandry, but this idea is controversial because theory indicates that bet‐hedging via polyandry can compensate the costs of mating only in small populations. Nevertheless, populations are often spatially structured, and even in the absence of spatial structure, mate‐choice opportunity can be limited to a few potential partners. We examined the effectiveness of bet‐hedging in such situations with simulations carried out under two scenarios: (1) intrinsic male quality, with offspring survival determined by male phenotype (male's ability to generate viable offspring), and (2) genetic incompatibility (offspring fitness determined nonadditively by parental genotypes). We find higher fixation probabilities for a polyandrous strategy compared to a monandrous strategy if complete reproductive failure due to male effects or parental incompatibility is pervasive in the population. Our results also indicate that bet‐hedging polyandry can delay the extinction of small demes. Our results underscore the potential for bet‐hedging to provide benefits to polyandrous females and have valuable implications for conservation biology.  相似文献   

11.
In bet hedging, organisms sacrifice short‐term success to reduce the long‐term variance in success. Delayed germination is the classic example of bet hedging, in which a fraction of seeds remain dormant as a hedge against the risk of complete reproductive failure. Here, we investigate the adaptive nature of delayed germination as a bet hedging strategy using long‐term demographic data on Sonoran Desert winter annual plants. Using stochastic population models, we estimate fitness as a function of delayed germination and identify evolutionarily stable strategies for 12 abundant species in the community. Results indicate that delayed germination meets the criteria as a bet hedging strategy for all species. Density‐dependent models, but not density‐independent ones, predicted optimal germination strategies that correspond remarkably well with observed patterns. By incorporating naturally occurring variation in seed and seedling dynamics, our results present a rigorous test of bet hedging theory within the relevant environmental context.  相似文献   

12.
Bacteria have developed an impressive ability to survive and propagate in highly diverse and changing environments by evolving phenotypic heterogeneity. Phenotypic heterogeneity ensures that a subpopulation is well prepared for environmental changes. The expression bet hedging is commonly (but often incorrectly) used by molecular biologists to describe any observed phenotypic heterogeneity. In evolutionary biology, however, bet hedging denotes a risk-spreading strategy displayed by isogenic populations that evolved in unpredictably changing environments. Opposed to other survival strategies, bet hedging evolves because the selection environment changes and favours different phenotypes at different times. Consequently, in bet hedging populations all phenotypes perform differently well at any time, depending on the selection pressures present. Moreover, bet hedging is the only strategy in which temporal variance of offspring numbers per individual is minimized. Our paper aims to provide a guide for the correct use of the term bet hedging in molecular biology.  相似文献   

13.
Early life‐history transitions are crucial determinants of lifetime survival and fecundity. Adaptive evolution in early life‐history traits involves a complex interplay between the developing plant and its current and future environments. We examined the plant's earliest life‐history traits, dissecting an integrated suite of pregermination processes: primary dormancy, thermal induction of secondary dormancy, and seasonal germination response. We examined genetic variation in the three processes, genetic correlations among the processes, and the scaling of germination phenology with the source populations’ climates. A spring annual life history was associated with genetic propensities toward both strong primary dormancy and heat‐induced secondary dormancy, alone or in combination. Lineages with similar proportions of winter and spring annual life history have both weak primary dormancy and weak thermal dormancy induction. A genetic bias to adopt a spring annual strategy, mediated by rapid loss of primary dormancy and high thermal dormancy induction, is associated with a climatic gradient characterized by increasing temperature in summer and rainfall in winter. This study highlights the importance of considering combinations of multiple genetically based traits along a climatic gradient as adaptive strategies differentiating annual plant life‐history strategies. Despite the genetic‐climatic cline, there is polymorphism for life‐history strategies within populations, classically interpreted as bet hedging in an unpredictable world.  相似文献   

14.
It is generally thought that the adsorption rate of a bacteriophage correlates positively with fitness, but this view neglects that most phages rely only on exponentially growing bacteria for productive infections. Thus, phages must cope with the environmental stochasticity that is their hosts’ physiological state. If lysogeny is one alternative, it is unclear how strictly lytic phages can survive the host stationary phase. Three scenarios may explain their maintenance: (1) pseudolysogeny, (2) diversified, or (3) conservative bet hedging. To better understand how a strictly lytic phage survives the stationary phase of its host, and how phage adsorption rate impacts this survival, we challenged two strictly lytic phage λ, differing in their adsorption rates, with stationary phase Escherichia coli cells. Our results showed that, pseudolysogeny was not responsible for phage survival and that, contrary to our expectation, high adsorption rate was not more detrimental during stationary phase than low adsorption rate. Interestingly, this last observation was due to the presence of the “residual fraction” (phages exhibiting extremely low adsorption rates), protecting phage populations from extinction. Whether this cryptic phenotypic variation is an adaptation (diversified bet hedging) or merely reflecting unavoidable defects during protein synthesis remains an open question.  相似文献   

15.
Persistence and thriving of univoltine, herbivore insect species of the temperate zone rely on obligate diapause response that ensures winter survival and synchronization with host phenology. We used a stenophagous fruit fly (Rhagoletis cerasi) with obligate pupae diapause to determine genetic and environmental effects on diapause intensity of geographically isolated populations with habitat heterogeneity. Pupae from two Greek and one German populations with various gene flow rates were exposed at five constant chilling temperatures (0–12 °C) for different durations and then incubated at a high temperature until all adults have emerged. Pupae diapause intensity differs among Greek and German populations, suggesting an adaptive response to habitat heterogeneity (mostly differences in phenology patterns of local host cultivars). Moderately warm winter temperatures, such as 8 °C, promote diapause termination in all three populations. Insufficient chilling (short duration or warmer temperatures) regulates the expression of prolonged dormancy. Interestingly, extended chilling (longer than required for terminating diapause) ‘return’ pupae to another (facultative) cycle of dormancy enabling adults to emerge during the next appropriate ‘window of time’; a strategy first time reported for univoltine insects. Consequently, diapause duration of R. cerasi is determined both by i) the adaptive response to local climatic conditions (annual dormancy) and ii) the plastic responses to interannual climatic variability resulting in two types of long life cycles within populations, prolonged and facultative dormancy as response to insufficient chilling and extended exposure to chilling, respectively. Long life cycles are expressed as a part of dormancy bet‐hedging strategies of R. cerasi populations.  相似文献   

16.
The adaptive response of organisms to unpredictable environments is increasingly recognized as a central topic in fundamental and applied evolutionary ecology. Selection due to environmental unpredictability can act on multiple traits of an organism's life cycle to reduce the impact of high environmental variance. The aim of this research was to study how unpredictability selects for diapause traits: 1) the timing of sex (a proxy of the timing of diapausing egg production), and 2) the diapausing egg hatching fraction (a proxy of diapause duration). We used an experimental evolution approach with the facultative sexual rotifer Brachionus plicatilis. Laboratory populations experiencing two contrasting regimes of environmental fluctuation (predictable versus unpredictable) evolved divergently over a short time span (< 77 days). The populations under the unpredictable regime showed an earlier initiation of sexual reproduction and a lower hatching fraction of diapausing eggs than populations under the predictable regime. These findings demonstrate empirically the existence of bet‐hedging strategies in B. plicatilis regarding both traits, consistent with theoretical predictions of bet‐hedging evolution under conditions of unpredictable environmental variance. Given that scenarios of increased environmental variability are expected to occur in the near future, a comprehensive understanding of the role of bet‐hedging strategies is necessary for predicting population responses to environmental change.  相似文献   

17.
Bet hedging at reproduction is expected to evolve when mothers are exposed to unpredictable cues for future environmental conditions, whereas transgenerational plasticity (TGP) should be favoured when cues reliably predict the environment offspring will experience. Since climate predictions forecast an increase in both temperature and climate variability, both TGP and bet hedging are likely to become important strategies to mediate climate change effects. Here, the potential to produce variably sized offspring in both warming and unpredictable environments was tested by investigating whether stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) mothers adjusted mean offspring size and within‐clutch variation in offspring size in response to experimental manipulation of maternal thermal environment and predictability (alternating between ambient and elevated water temperatures). Reproductive output traits of F1 females were influenced by both temperature and environmental predictability. Mothers that developed at ambient temperature (17 °C) produced larger, but fewer eggs than mothers that developed at elevated temperature (21 °C), implying selection for different‐sized offspring in different environments. Mothers in unpredictable environments had smaller mean egg sizes and tended to have greater within‐female egg size variability, especially at 21 °C, suggesting that mothers may have dynamically modified the variance in offspring size to spread the risk of incorrectly predicting future environmental conditions. Both TGP and diversification influenced F2 offspring body size. F2 offspring reared at 21 °C had larger mean body sizes if their mother developed at 21 °C, but this TGP benefit was not present for offspring of 17 °C mothers reared at 17 °C, indicating that maternal TGP will be highly relevant for ocean warming scenarios in this system. Offspring of variable environment mothers were smaller but more variable in size than offspring from constant environment mothers, particularly at 21 °C. In summary, stickleback mothers may have used both TGP and diversified bet‐hedging strategies to cope with the dual stress of ocean warming and environmental uncertainty.  相似文献   

18.
Deterministic seasonality can explain the evolution of alternative life history phenotypes (i.e., life history polyphenism) expressed in different generations emerging within the same year. However, the influence of stochastic variation on the expression of such life history polyphenisms in seasonal environments is insufficiently understood. Here, we use insects as a model and explore (1) the effects of stochastic variation in seasonality and (2) the life cycle on the degree of life history differentiation among the alternative developmental pathways of direct development and diapause (overwintering), and (3) the evolution of phenology. With numerical simulation, we determine the values of development (growth) time, growth rate, body size, reproductive effort, adult life span, and fecundity in both the overwintering and directly developing generations that maximize geometric mean fitness. The results suggest that natural selection favors the expression of alternative life histories in the alternative developmental pathways even when there is stochastic variation in seasonality, but that trait differentiation is affected by the developmental stage that overwinters. Increasing environmental unpredictability induced a switch to a bet‐hedging type of life history strategy, which is consistent with general life history theory. Bet‐hedging appeared in our study system as reduced expression of the direct development phenotype, with associated changes in life history phenotypes, because the fitness value of direct development is highly variable in uncertain environments. Our main result is that seasonality itself is a key factor promoting the evolution of seasonally polyphenic life histories but that environmental stochasticity may modulate the expression of life history phenotypes.  相似文献   

19.
We compared egg size phenotypes and tested several predictions from the optimal egg size (OES) and bet‐hedging theories in two North American desert‐dwelling sister tortoise taxa, Gopherus agassizii and G. morafkai, that inhabit different climate spaces: relatively unpredictable and more predictable climate spaces, respectively. Observed patterns in both species differed from the predictions of OES in several ways. Mean egg size increased with maternal body size in both species. Mean egg size was inversely related to clutch order in G. agassizii, a strategy more consistent with the within‐generation hypothesis arising out of bet‐hedging theory or a constraint in egg investment due to resource availability, and contrary to theories of density dependence, which posit that increasing hatchling competition from later season clutches should drive selection for larger eggs. We provide empirical evidence that one species, G. agassizii, employs a bet‐hedging strategy that is a combination of two different bet‐hedging hypotheses. Additionally, we found some evidence for G. morafkai employing a conservative bet‐hedging strategy. (e.g., lack of intra‐ and interclutch variation in egg size relative to body size). Our novel adaptive hypothesis suggests the possibility that natural selection favors smaller offspring in late‐season clutches because they experience a more benign environment or less energetically challenging environmental conditions (i.e., winter) than early clutch progeny, that emerge under harsher and more energetically challenging environmental conditions (i.e., summer). We also discuss alternative hypotheses of sexually antagonistic selection, which arise from the trade‐offs of son versus daughter production that might have different optima depending on clutch order and variation in temperature‐dependent sex determination (TSD) among clutches. Resolution of these hypotheses will require long‐term data on fitness of sons versus daughters as a function of incubation environment, data as yet unavailable for any species with TSD.  相似文献   

20.
Extended dormancy in a population is evolutionarily costly unless some variance in season-to-season fitness (usually driven by variance in environmental quality) makes bet hedging useful. Consequently, dormancy in a population is usually accepted as evidence of environmental variance. Using a Ricker-type model with heritable variation in dormancy, we show that this need not be so. Intrinsic population dynamics can generate chaotic fluctuations in the absence of environmental variance. Chaotic dynamics increase the frequency of a range of dormant strategists under natural selection, even when mortality during dormancy is relatively high. The buffering effect of dormant individuals then eliminates chaotic dynamics or generates periodic orbits of relatively low amplitude. These stabilized populations harbor a high frequency of dormant individuals that express a range of propensities to enter dormancy.  相似文献   

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