不同气候变化情景下2070-2099年中国潜在植被及其敏感性

潜在植被作为当前气候条件、无人类干扰下,所能发育演替形成的最稳定、最成熟的一种顶极植被类型,能够反映立地植被发展的趋势。潜在植被的研究有助于人类了解植被与气候系统的作用机制,可为区域植被恢复工程和生态建设提供参考依据。基于综合顺序分类系统,利用A1B、A2及B1情景下2070-2099年气象数据对中国潜在植被进行了模拟,在不同气候变化情景下分析了未来中国潜在植被的空间分布和潜在植被对不同气候变化的敏感性。结果表明:(1)不同气候变化背景下中国潜在植被分布的规律具有相似性,但潜在植被类在总数和各情景下分布的面积存在差异性;(2)比较发现,中国的气候条件在20世纪和21世纪均不适宜炎热极干热带荒漠类(ⅦA)的发育;(3)中国潜在植被在3种气候变化情景下表现为敏感性的区域占到国土总面积的64.10%,在西北地区、北方地区、南方地区及青藏地区不同自然区敏感性地区所占各区的比例不同,分别为68.20%、70.82%、49.94%及66.59%。     

中国干旱半干旱区植被降水利用效率时空变化特征及影响因素分析

植被的降水利用效率（Precipitation use efficiency,PUE）是表征植被生产力对降水量时空动态变化响应特征的重要指示器,对了解干旱环境下植被生产力的变化尤为关键。基于中国干旱半干旱区2000-2020年的植被净初级生产力、降水量、气温、土地利用类型和地形等数据,分析了中国干旱半干旱区植被降水利用效率的时空特征及其变化趋势,探究了植被PUE与气候因子的关联以及气候变化下土地利用和地形对植被PUE的影响。研究结果表明：（1）2000-2020年中国干旱半干旱区植被平均PUE为0.41 g C m^-2 mm^-1,不同土地利用类型下植被PUE的大小顺序为：草地<湿地<灌木<耕地<林地。（2）植被PUE年际变化整体呈现波动上升趋势,上升速率为0.004 g C m^-2 mm^-1,其中呈现显著改善趋势的面积占总面积的12.24%。（3）气温升高在不同程度上对大多数植被PUE起到促进作用,而降水增多则会抑制绝大多数区域的植被PUE。植被较少的区域,植被降水利用效率与气温、降水两气候因子基本无关。（4）随着海拔的升高,植被PUE呈现出先减后增再减的趋势。随着海拔的变化,气温依然与植被PUE呈正相关,降水依然与植被PUE呈负相关。研究结果可为中国干旱半干旱区生态系统保护、恢复以及可持续利用提供科学参考。     

基于CSCS和RegCM3模型的21世纪末中国潜在植被

潜在植被作为陆地生态系统的重要组成部分,能够真实反映立地气候环境,对其分布特征的研究可为生态工程评价提供依据。本文以综合顺序分类系统理论为基础,选取RegCM3模型及A2情景下的预测数据,模拟了2071—2100年中国潜在植被的空间分布。结果表明,21世纪中国潜在植被均发生了不同程度、不同方向的变化,具体表现为:温带森林和冻原高山草地向冷干方向变化,其中温带森林为中国主体潜在植被;亚热带森林向较冷地区演替;温带荒漠、热带森林及热带稀树草原向冷湿方向迁移;半荒漠向暖湿地区集中分布;干草原、温带湿润草地及热带荒漠向暖干方向变化,其中温带湿润草地和热带荒漠的空间分布重心迁移显著。本文揭示了21世纪中国潜在植被的变化规律,可为我国21世纪生态建设战略提供参考。     

气候变化和人类活动对中国北方旱区植被变绿的定量贡献

气候变化和大规模的生态恢复使中国北方旱区植被发生了显著变化,量化气候变化和人类活动对植被动态的相对贡献,对于旱区生态系统管理和应对未来气候变化具有重要意义。目前,中国北方旱区植被变化影响因素的时间动态（2000年大规模生态恢复工程实施前后）和空间异质性（沿干旱梯度）仍需进一步的定量研究。基于多源数据,采用趋势分析、偏相关分析和随机森林模型等方法,分析了1981-2018年中国北方旱区气候和植被的时空变化规律,量化了2000年前后气候变化和人类活动对植被动态的相对贡献并分析其在干旱梯度上的空间差异性。结果表明：（1）1981-2018年期间,中国北方旱区的叶面积指数（LAI）平均增加速率为（0.0037±0.0443） a^-1,且增加速率沿干旱梯度增大。2000年前仅10.46%（P<0.05）的地区显著变绿,而2000年后达到36.84%,且植被变绿主要归因于非树木植被。（2）2000年后降水对植被变绿的正效应在不同干旱梯度均增加,而在半干旱区和亚湿润干旱区,温度对植被变绿由正向促进转为负向抑制,而辐射在干旱区由负效应转向正效应。（3）2000年前后,气候变化均主导着植被的动态,贡献率分别为96.07%和73.72%,人类活动的贡献在2000年后进一步增强（从3.93%增加到26.28%）,且沿着干旱梯度而增加,其中人类活动对植被变绿的贡献在半干旱地区增加最显著（+0.0289 m² m^-2 a^-1,P<0.05）。研究结果可为未来气候变化下中国北方旱区的植被恢复和可持续发展提供科学依据。     

中国潜在植被空间分布格局

潜在植被作为一种与所处立地达到平衡的演替终态,反映的是无人类干扰情况下,立地所能发育形成的最稳定成熟的一种顶极植被类型,是一个地区现状植被的发展趋势。潜在植被的研究能够真实反映气候条件对植被形态变化的影响,是植被-环境分类与关系研究的起点,也是全球变化与陆地生态系统研究的关键。以综合顺序分类法为基本理论基础,在GIS研究方法支持下,利用我国2348个气象台站1961～1990年30a的气候资料,对我国潜在植被类型进行了划分,得出以下结论：（1）分布在我国的潜在植被类型有41类,表现出了我国潜在植被的多样性特征;从面积相对比例来看,我国潜在植被在分布面积上很不均匀,面积最大的寒冷潮湿多雨冻原、高山草甸类分布面积达到1526188km^2,面积最小的炎热微干稀树草原类分布面积仅为13km^2。（2）海拔0～6800m之间,是我国潜在植被主要分布的海拔界限,并且此海拔段植被多样性随海拔变化呈现出一定的规律性,即随海拔增加植被多样性显著下降。（3）我国潜在植被的空间分布很好的体现了三向地带性规律,而决定这种分布的主要原因是太阳辐射的纬度性变化、距离海洋的远近引起水分条件变化以及由海拔高度引起的从基带向上热量和干湿变化。（4）我国潜在植被空间格局在重心分布上,主要表现为空间聚集（P1、P2、P3、P4、P5、P6）和空间线型邻接（L1、L2、L3）两个主要特征。     

黄淮海地区干旱变化特征及其对气候变化的响应

为了探究气候变化背景下黄淮海地区的干旱特征,基于黄淮海平原34个气象站点的1961—2012年气象数据,使用相对湿润指数探讨分析了近50年黄淮海地区冬小麦生长季及4个季节干旱的时空变化及其对气候变化的响应。结果表明:(1)在整个分析期内(1961—2011)冬小麦生长季干旱减轻,但是在近20年干旱有了加重的趋势,且干旱加重的趋势是一种突变现象。(2)黄淮海地区1961年以来,春季、冬季以及冬小麦生长季内均表现为不同程度的干旱,干旱频率都达到90%以上,其中春、冬两季最为干旱,3个时段整个黄淮海中北部地区都为高频干旱区域,且4个季节及冬小麦生长季干旱程度与干旱频率的区域分布均表现为由南向北递增的趋势。(3)黄淮海地区的干旱特征对降水、太阳辐射和相对湿度这3个气候要素的变化最为敏感。     

近40年中国干旱特征及其对植被变化的影响

全球变暖影响下,中国干旱事件发生愈加频繁。过去半个世纪里,中国半干旱和半湿润地区的分界线总体南移,干旱面积呈增加趋势,因此了解中国干旱变化趋势对区域生态环境保护具有重要意义。基于GLASS数据产品、ERA5-Land数据,采用游程理论和多元线性回归等方法,探究1982—2018年间多尺度干旱事件基本特征(干旱持续时间、干旱严重度、干旱强度等),并分析植被生产力变化趋势,揭示干旱对植被变化的累积影响。结果表明：(1)新疆、青藏高原以及东南地区干旱较为严峻,而华中、华东大部分区域处于轻旱或无旱状态;(2)1982—2018年间,中国植被生产力整体呈改善态势,显著改善区集中在中国中部,而退化区集中在东南部、内蒙古和西藏南部;(3)中国大部分区域干旱与植被呈正相关,且干旱对植被多为累积影响,在干旱区和半干旱区尤为明显;(4)随着植被覆盖度的增加,植被与近短期尺度干旱的相关性也逐渐增加,由干旱区到湿润区,近短尺度干旱对植被变化的影响逐步增大。其中,SPEI-6(标准化降水蒸散发指数—中期尺度)对植被轻微变化累积影响最显著,而SPEI-12(标准化降水蒸散发指数—长期尺度)对植被显著变化累积影响更...     

西北干旱区植被净初级生产力的遥感估算及时空差异原因

植被净初级生产力(NPP)是评价陆地生态系统的重要参数。本文基于2000—2014年的MODIS NDVI数据,结合西北干旱区的自然环境特点,从土地覆盖类型、分类的精度、辐射数据的选取、计算公式的选择等方面对CASA模型进行改进和率定,进一步估算了西北干旱区的NPP,并分析了NPP的时空变化特征。结果表明:经验证改进的CASA模型对于干旱半干旱区植被NPP的模拟效果较好,可以反映研究区的植被生长及分布状况,西北干旱区多年平均植被NPP为191.63 g C·m~(-2)·a~(-1);西北干旱区植被NPP分布具有明显的区域差异性,总体上呈现出西北、东南高,中间低的特征;在年际变化上,NPP总体上呈增加趋势,线性增长率为2.98 g C·m~(-2)·a~(-1),且不同植被类型的NPP增长率不同,耕地增长最快,其次是灌丛,最低的是林地;对西北干旱区不同植被类型的NPP与气候因子(气温、降水)的相关性分析表明,总体上植被生物量与降水的相关系数为0.538(P0.05),与气温的相关系数为0.394,说明研究区植被NPP与降水的相关性高于气温;且不同植被类型与气候因子的相关性具有差异性。     

贵州白鹇湖沉积物中孢粉记录的5.5kaB.P.以来的气候变化

通过对白鹇湖沉积物柱芯孢粉组合的剖面变化分析,在有机质14C定年基础上,探讨了白鹇湖地区过去5.5 ka calB.P.以来的植被演替和气候变化过程.研究结果表明,5500-4500 aB.P.期间,各类植被比较丰富,气候温暖湿润;4500-2750 aB.P.期间,干旱草本和蕨类植物开始出现,是气候转变过渡期;2750-1500 aB.P.期间,木本植物组合类型发生明显变化,喜湿草本减少,耐旱草本增加,气候向温凉干旱化发展;1500 aB.P.至今,木本植被和喜湿草本继续减少,中生耐旱草本和蕨类植物数量继续大幅增加,干旱化趋势明显,植被组合向典型石漠化植被组合类型发展.白鹇湖沉积物剖面孢粉组合变化表明,该地区近5000a来气候变化以温度下降、降水减少为主要趋势,并存在明显的陆地植被退化现象.研究还揭示了自然气候变化事件(如气候持续干旱)可导致喀斯特地区发生石漠化,证实了喀斯特地区生态环境具先天脆弱性.科学评估白鹇湖地区气候干旱化趋势及其生态环境影响对指导该地区科学应对气候变化具重要意义,亟待加强.     

河西走廊植被净初级生产力时空变化及其影响因子研究

干旱半干旱区植被NPP变化对全球碳循环有重要影响,该区域NPP对气候变化的响应表现出较大的时空异质性,其驱动机制并不十分清楚。选择中国河西走廊,利用随机森林算法估算了2002-2018年的NPP,基于偏导数法计算了气候与人类活动对NPP的影响。结果表明：（1）随机森林算法能较好的适用于干旱半干旱区NPP估算。（2）2002-2018年间河西走廊年NPP的平均值为153.32 gC m^-2 a^-1,总量为37.468 Tg C/a,呈东南向西北递减的分布特征,研究期间NPP呈2.37 gC m^-2 a^-1（P=0.09）增长趋势。（3）河西走廊NPP变化52.51%由气候因子贡献,47.49%由人类活动贡献。（4）在气候变化对NPP的影响中,降水主导了该区72.21%的区域,温度对NPP变化量的贡献占73.71%,前者影响着NPP变化格局,后者主导NPP变化数量。升温和增湿均有利于该区NPP增加,随着西北地区气候暖湿化,河西走廊植被会持续改善,该研究有助于理解干旱半干旱区NPP对气候变化的响应机制,为适应气候变化政策制定提供理论依据。     

Habitat resources, remnant vegetation condition and area determine distribution patterns and abundance of butterflies and day-flying moths in a fragmented urban landscape, south-west Western Australia

The creation of cities, towns and farms following European settlement of Australia has fragmented the original vegetation. Many native species that were previously widespread are now found only within isolated remnants of their original habitat. These relictual populations are at increased risk of decline and local extinction, so identifying the factors that determine their persistence is important for ongoing management and conservation. I compared the effects of site area, connectivity, vegetation condition and habitat resources on the presence, abundance and total number of species of butterflies and day-flying moths within 46 urban fragments of remnant vegetation in south-west Western Australia. Site area and vegetation condition were the dominant determinants of species presence: large sites with more undisturbed vegetation favoured 16 of 20 native species and only one (Geitoneura minyas) benefited from disturbance. Another nine species that were not sufficiently widespread or abundant to enable individual analysis were collectively more prevalent in larger sites. Resource quality and quantity dominated the patterns of site occupancy, consistent with habitat resources, not metapopulation effects, determining current distribution patterns. The total number of species at each site reflected the collective responses of the individual species: increasing with area and declining with vegetation disturbance. The effects of area and vegetation condition were not simply additive: disturbance had a far greater impact on small remnants. Restoration or maintenance of high vegetation condition will be essential to maintain regional species diversity and to prevent local extinctions of butterflies and day-flying moths, especially in small remnants.     

Vegetation dynamics related to sediment accumulation in Kushiro Mire, northeastern Japan

We investigated the relationship between vegetation changes and site condition in Kushiro Mire, northeastern Japan, where massive depositions of sediment from the watershed have been observed over the last several decades. These changes also included the changing area of floodplain forest. To determine the factors that induced the changing floodplain forest area and the effect of sediment accumulation on floodplain vegetation, we examined site conditions where vegetation had recently changed. We classified the pattern of vegetation change as new forest (formerly meadow), new meadow (formerly forest), stable forest (forest since 1967), and stable meadow (meadow since 1967) with the help of aerial photographs taken in 1967, 1977, and 2000. The survey results showed that the quadrats were divided into six vegetation types based on current vegetation composition. All new forests comprised alder (Alnus japonica) and were divided into two vegetation types. New meadows were also considered alder forest based on remnants of former forest and divided into two vegetation types. The site condition showed better correspondence to the pattern of vegetation change than the current vegetation composition, though it had a significant relationship with the latter. In new forests, high water table and a relatively high content of clay and silt characterized the site condition, whereas in new meadows, low water table and high sand content were the site characteristics. We discuss these site characteristics in the context of alder’s adaptability to site. It is suggested that coarse sediment probably along with intense flooding and fine sediment coupled with high water table contributed to the disappearance and establishment of alder forests, respectively.     

青藏高原东缘封育和退化高寒草甸种子库差异

采用幼苗萌发法研究了青藏高原东部高寒草甸封育和退化地区土壤种子库的差异.结果表明:(1)两个样地总共有10161株幼苗萌发,分属55个物种,23个科.封育样地多年生植物比例高于退化样地,禾草和单子叶植物比例在两个样地间差异不大.(2)退化样地土壤种子库种子密度((6105±1530) m-2)显著高于封育样地((3883±798) m-2),而物种丰富度差异不显著.所研究区域拥有较为丰富的种子库资源,退化地区资源更丰富,说明恢复不存在种子限制问题,土壤种子库可以成为植被恢复的潜在资源.(3)种子密度和物种丰富度在垂直分层上差异显著,且随着深度的增加而显著减小.(4)用Srensen coefficient指数计算出土壤种子库和地上植被之间的相似性在整体上较低,封育样地(45.3%)略高于退化样地(40.4%),两个样地地上植被之间的相似性为50%,而种子库之间相似性高达84.6%,说明种子库起到一个"缓冲器"的作用.(5)Shannon-Wiener多样性指数分析显示,无论在地上植被或种子库中,物种多样性都是封育样地显著高于退化样地.过度放牧不仅导致地上植被的生物多样性丧失,而且使种子库中的物种多样性降低,而封育管理可以维持地上植被和种子库中的物种多样性.     

Vegetation development at a mountain settlement site in the Swedish Scandes during the late Holocene: palaeoecological evidence of human-induced deforestation

A palaeoecological study was conducted close to the forest limit in the northern Scandinavian mountain range. The aim was to elucidate the degree to which human impact has affected the vegetation at Hiednikvalta, a Stállo settlement site. Stállo settlements consist of round hut foundations that have a hearth in the middle and are surrounded by a low turf wall. They were probably established by Sámi people using the mountain areas for hunting and/or reindeer herding. In order to separate the effects of humans and climate on the vegetation, a reference area approach was adopted, i.e. the vegetation development at the Stállo settlement site Hiednikvalta was compared with the vegetation development in a forested reference area Avvuhatjåhkkå, at the same altitude as Hiednikvalta but with no archaeological remains of settlements. Peat stratigraphies were retrieved at the two sites and pollen analysis, loss-on-ignition (LOI), pollen accumulation rates (PAR), macrofossil analysis and Betula pollen size statistics were all examined. The results indicate that Hiednikvalta was forested with Betula trees prior to the Stállo settlement period, which occurred between the eighth and thirteenth centuries. Human activities resulted in a decrease in tree cover at the site, as found in a previous study at Adamvalta, another Stállo settlement site in the region. However, the magnitude of vegetation change, and the post-Stállo vegetation development differed between the two areas, suggesting that site-specific factors are important. The use of reference areas in palynological studies is also discussed.     

Degraded rangeland dominated by unpalatable forbs exhibits large-scale spatial heterogeneity

The spatial heterogeneity of vegetation and soil increases in response to land degradation caused by grazing mainly at a large spatial scale. This increase has been frequently associated with shrub invasion, but shrub invasion does not necessarily accompany land degradation. Instead, dominance by unpalatable forbs has been reported in some regions, but the spatial heterogeneity of such degraded rangeland has not been studied. We investigated the spatial heterogeneity of rangeland dominated by unpalatable forbs at a large spatial scale using Mongolian rangeland as an example. Spatial heterogeneity of the total vegetation cover and community heterogeneity were analyzed for three levels of land degradation. We found that the least-degraded site had homogeneous total vegetation cover and community, that the site with intermediate degradation exhibited low heterogeneity of the total vegetation cover but significant community type variation, and that the most degrade sites exhibited a periodic pattern of total vegetation cover as a result of a mixture of dense and sparse patches of unpalatable forbs. These different responses can be used to assess land degradation levels and may have potential to monitor land degradation at a large scale by satellite images.     

Four decades of old field vegetation development and the role of Celastrus orbiculatus in the northeastern United States

Abstract. This paper describes four decades of in situ vegetation change in a post-agricultural site in southern New England where the role of the introduced vine, Celastrus orbiculatus, has drastically modified the course of vegetation development. An initial perennial forb-grassland community was replaced by two strikingly different physiognomic vegetation types-an early hardwood forest and a vine community occupying the same site 40 yr later. This ecological phenomenon was unpredictable since Celastrus was not recorded at the site until the 1970s. Within the young hardwood forest dominated by Prunus serotina and Acer rubrum, a few old field species (five) persist, whereas 17 forest herbs have become established. Typical forest shrubs are rare or absent. The Celastrus-dominated vine community has suppressed or eliminated pre-existing growth to form a relatively stable community where a forest vegetation is the regional vegetation type. Celastrus also appears to be facilitating a native vine (Vitis labrusca) by forming a ‘ladder’ for its advance. Although A. rubrum and Quercus spp. could ultimately dominate the forest community, the contiguous and aggressive nature of Celastrus makes predictions questionable. This long-term study highlights the unpredictable nature of old field succession and the role of an exotic species in threatening the natural vegetation development.     

Timing of nest vegetation measurement may obscure adaptive significance of nest‐site characteristics: A simulation study

Advances in understanding avian nesting ecology are hindered by a prevalent lack of agreement between nest‐site characteristics and fitness metrics such as nest success. We posit this is a result of inconsistent and improper timing of nest‐site vegetation measurements. Therefore, we evaluated how the timing of nest vegetation measurement influences the estimated effects of vegetation structure on nest survival. We simulated phenological changes in nest‐site vegetation growth over a typical nesting season and modeled how the timing of measuring that vegetation, relative to nest fate, creates bias in conclusions regarding its influence on nest survival. We modeled the bias associated with four methods of measuring nest‐site vegetation: Method 1—measuring at nest initiation, Method 2—measuring at nest termination regardless of fate, Method 3—measuring at nest termination for successful nests and at estimated completion for unsuccessful nests, and Method 4—measuring at nest termination regardless of fate while also accounting for initiation date. We quantified and compared bias for each method for varying simulated effects, ranked models for each method using AIC, and calculated the proportion of simulations in which each model (measurement method) was selected as the best model. Our results indicate that the risk of drawing an erroneous or spurious conclusion was present in all methods but greater with Method 2 which is the most common method reported in the literature. Methods 1 and 3 were similarly less biased. Method 4 provided no additional value as bias was similar to Method 2 for all scenarios. While Method 1 is seldom practical to collect in the field, Method 3 is logistically practical and minimizes inherent bias. Implementation of Method 3 will facilitate estimating the effect of nest‐site vegetation on survival, in the least biased way, and allow reliable conclusions to be drawn.     

Estimation of forest-ecosystem site index using remote-sensed data

The estimation of site index and site quality forms the fundamental theory and basic tools in forest-ecosystem management and silviculture practice. The study on the spatial pattern and temporal dynamics of site index and site quality of forest ecosystem still lacks technological advancement. It is a novel approach for estimating forest productivity in large areas using satellite remote-sensed data. The site-index spatial distribution pattern of spruce (Picea asperata) forest in Songpan-Zhengjiangguan watershed, northwestern Sichuan Province, China, was described using the remote-sensing vegetation index application and the established inverse models. The application potential of the methodology in broad regions and forests using the accuracy assessment was evaluated. The results show that the site index of the spruce forest is in linear correlation with the remote-sensed vegetation indices (normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and soil adjust NDVI (TNDVI)), as well as with these inverse models with high accuracy. This study demonstrated that this approach can be used in similar estimation of different forest ecosystems.     

Estimation of forest-ecosystem site index using remote-sensed data

The estimation of site index and site quality forms the fundamental theory and basic tools in forest-ecosystem management and silviculture practice. The study on the spatial pattern and temporal dynamics of site index and site quality of forest ecosystem still lacks technological advancement. It is a novel approach for estimating forest productivity in large areas using satellite remote-sensed data. The site-index spatial distribution pattern of spruce (Picea asperata) forest in Songpan-Zhengjiangguan watershed, northwestern Sichuan Province, China, was described using the remote-sensing vegetation index application and the established inverse models. The application potential of the methodology in broad regions and forests using the accuracy assessment was evaluated. The results show that the site index of the spruce forest is in linear correlation with the remote-sensed vegetation indices (normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and soil adjust NDVI (TNDVI)), as well as with these inverse models with high accuracy. This study demonstrated that this approach can be used in similar estimation of different forest ecosystems.     

Oviposition Preferences in Newts: Does Temperature Matter?

A female's decision where and when to place her eggs has important fitness consequences for her offspring. Although temperature is considered among the most relevant abiotic factors affecting female oviposition site choice in ectotherms, little is known about the relative importance of temperature cues in complex oviposition decisions. In this study, we examined female's oviposition choice under conflicting demands for temperature and embryo protection by studying oviposition behaviour in female alpine newts, Triturus alpestris , exposed to various thermal conditions and the availability of egg-wrapping vegetation. Females oviposited between 12.5 and 22.5°C in the aquatic thermal gradient (5–32.5°C) with the unrestricted availability of oviposition vegetation. The removal of the vegetation from predominantly chosen oviposition temperatures (15–20°C) induced egg-retention in most females. This suggests that both temperature and the presence of egg-wrapping vegetation play important roles in oviposition site choice of alpine newts.