Respiratory symptoms as predictors of 27 year mortality in a representative sample of British adults.

OBJECTIVE--To examine associations between reported respiratory symptoms (as elicited by questionnaire) and subsequent mortality. DESIGN--Prospective cohort study. SETTING--92 General practices in Great Britain. PARTICIPANTS--A nationally representative sample of 1532 British men and women aged between 40 and 64. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Mortality from all causes, cardiovascular disease, lung cancer, and chronic bronchitis. RESULTS--Subjects were interviewed in 1958 regarding various respiratory symptoms (including cough, phlegm, breathlessness, and wheeze) by using a questionnaire which formed the basis of the Medical Research Council''s questionnaire on respiratory symptoms. By the end of 1985, 889 deaths had been reported, including 51 in men due to chronic bronchitis. After adjustment for differences in age and smoking habits death rates from chronic bronchitis in men who reported symptoms were greater than those in men who did not for each of the symptoms examined. The adjusted mortality ratios were 3.4 (95% confidence interval 1.8 to 6.5) for morning cough, 3.7 (2.0 to 6.9) for morning phlegm, 6.4 (3.0 to 13.8) for breathlessness when walking on the level, and 10.5 (4.4 to 24.6) for wheeze most days or nights. Mortality ratios were also significantly raised for four episodic symptoms not usually included in more recent respiratory symptom questionnaires--namely, occasional wheeze (mortality ratio 6.0; 95% confidence interval, 2.4 to 15.1), weather affects chest (5.7; 3.1 to 10.3), breathing different in summer (4.9; 2.8 to 8.6), and cold usually goes to chest (3.7; 2.0 to 6.8). The excess mortality associated with these symptoms remained significant after further adjustment for breathlessness or phlegm. Ratios for all cause mortality in men and women were also significantly raised for most respiratory symptoms, death rates being some 20-50% higher in people reporting symptoms after adjustment for age, sex, and smoking. Breathlessness was the only symptom significantly associated with excess mortality from cardiovascular disease (mortality ratio 1.4 (95% confidence interval 1.0 to 1.9) for breathlessness when walking on the level). Ratios were generally around unity and not significant for mortality due to lung cancer. CONCLUSIONS--The results suggest that episodic symptoms, which often do not appear in standard respiratory questionnaires, predict subsequent mortality from chronic obstructive airways disease. This supports the hypothesis that reversible airflow obstruction may be a precursor of progressive and irreversible decline in ventilatory function.     

Smoking,Chronic Bronchitis,and Lung Cancer

A follow-up was carried out on 21,579 male mass radiography volunteers aged at least 40 who had been the subject of an earlier investigation in which their smoking habits and sputum production were recorded and the prevalence of lung cancer was determined after chest x-ray examination. During the follow-up period, which was a minimum of 36 months and a maximum of 56 months, 64 new cases of lung cancer were identified by cross checking records with the registers of the regional cancer registration bureau. A significantly higher incidence of lung cancer was found in those with chronic bronchitis than in those without this disease. In the smoking categories, cigarette smokers with chronic bronchitis had a higher incidence than those without it, and this relationship was maintained irrespective of age and amount smoked. It is concluded that persons who smoke run a higher risk of chronic bronchitis than non-smokers and those who develop bronchitis run a higher risk of developing lung cancer.     

ASTHMA,CHRONIC BRONCHITIS AND EMPHYSEMA—The Use of Intermittent Positive Pressure Breathing with Inspiratory Flow Rate Control: A Review of the Literature

In chronic obstructive lung disease (asthma, chronic bronchitis, obstructive emphysema) there is a segmental reduction in the caliber of the airways, which always results in obstruction to air-flow. Increased airway resistance is a physiological expression of airway obstruction.The addition of inspiratory flow rate control to an intermittent positive pressure breathing device permits slow filling of a lung with obstructed airways, and is presented as a simple means of reducing the high pulmonary flow resistance and increasing the tidal volume.     

Reassessment of inflammation of airways in chronic bronchitis.

The term chronic bronchitis has been criticised because it is associated with hypersecretion of mucus rather than bronchial inflammation. This study was designed to establish the presence or absence of clinical chronic bronchitis and measure pulmonary function in 45 patients about to undergo resection of the lung. The condition in the cartilaginous and small airways and the severity of the emphysema were then measured in the resected specimen. The results from 20 patients who had clinical chronic bronchitis were compared with those in 25 patients who did not. The data show that patients with chronic bronchitis had greater inflammation (a) on mucosal surfaces (p less than 0.05) of all bronchi larger than 2 mm luminal diameter and (b) around glands (p less than 0.005) and gland ducts (p less than 0.05) in bronchi larger than 4 mm diameter. A variable degree of inflammation was present in the submucosa of smaller bronchi. The groups had equivalent proportions of mucous glands and Reid''s indices in central airways, and no differences were noted in measurements of pulmonary function, condition of small airways, or emphysema. These data show that the term chronic bronchitis is justified by inflammation of cartilaginous airways and suggest that this abnormality may be the cause of the chronic productive cough.     

Oxygen as a driving gas for nebulisers: safe or dangerous?

Changes in blood gas tensions occurring when 100% oxygen or air was used as the driving gas for nebulised salbutamol were studied in 23 patients with severe airways obstruction. The patients fell into three groups: nine had chronic bronchitis and emphysema with carbon dioxide retention, seven had emphysema and chronic bronchitis without carbon dioxide retention, and seven had severe asthma (no carbon dioxide retention). When oxygen was used as the driving gas patients who retained carbon dioxide showed a mean rise of 1.03 kPa (7.7 mm Hg) in their pressure of carbon dioxide (Pco2) after 15 minutes (p less than 0.001) but the Pco2 returned to baseline values within 20 minutes of stopping the nebuliser. The other two groups showed no rise in Pco2 with oxygen. When air was used as the driving gas none of the groups became significantly more hypoxic. Although it is safe to use oxygen as the driving gas for nebulisers in patients with obstructive airways disease with normal Pco2, caution should be exercised in those who already have carbon dioxide retention.     

Respiratory effects of non-tobacco cigarettes.

Data from the Tucson epidemiological study of airways obstructive disease on smoking of non-tobacco cigarettes such as marijuana were analysed to determine the effect of such smoking on respiratory symptoms and pulmonary function. Among adults aged under 40, 14% had smoked non-tobacco cigarettes at some time and 9% were current users. The prevalence of respiratory symptoms was increased in smokers of non-tobacco cigarettes. After tobacco smoking had been controlled for men who smoked non-tobacco cigarettes showed significant decreases in expiratory flow rates at low lung volumes and in the ratio of the forced expiratory volume in one second to the vital capacity. This effect on pulmonary function in male non-tobacco cigarette smokers was greater than the effect of tobacco cigarette smoking. These data suggest that non-tobacco cigarette smoking may be an important risk factor in young adults with respiratory symptoms or evidence of airways obstruction.     

Serum Metabolite Biomarkers Discriminate Healthy Smokers from COPD Smokers

COPD (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) is defined by a fixed expiratory airflow obstruction associated with disordered airways and alveolar destruction. COPD is caused by cigarette smoking and is the third greatest cause of mortality in the US. Forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) is the only validated clinical marker of COPD, but it correlates poorly with clinical features and is not sensitive enough to predict the early onset of disease. Using LC/MS global untargeted metabolite profiling of serum samples from a well-defined cohort of healthy smokers (n = 37), COPD smokers (n = 41) and non-smokers (n = 37), we sought to discover serum metabolic markers with known and/or unknown molecular identities that are associated with early-onset COPD. A total of 1,181 distinct molecular ions were detected in 95% of sera from all study subjects and 23 were found to be differentially-expressed in COPD-smokers vs. healthy-smokers. These 23 putative biomarkers were differentially-correlated with lung function parameters and used to generate a COPD prediction model possessing 87.8% sensitivity and 86.5% specificity. In an independent validation set, this model correctly predicted COPD in 8/10 individuals. These serum biomarkers included myoinositol, glycerophopshoinositol, fumarate, cysteinesulfonic acid, a modified version of fibrinogen peptide B (mFBP), and three doubly-charged peptides with undefined sequence that significantly and positively correlate with mFBP levels. Together, elevated levels of serum mFBP and additional disease-associated biomarkers point to a role for chronic inflammation, thrombosis, and oxidative stress in remodeling of the COPD airways. Serum metabolite biomarkers offer a promising and accessible window for recognition of early-stage COPD.     

Assessment of Upper Airways Obstruction

An indication of obstruction to the upper airways (trachea and larynx) may be obtained by calculating the ratio of the forced expired volume in one second to the peak expiratory flow rate (FEV₁/PEFR). This index was found to be usually less than 10 in normal subjects (mean 7·3), and in patients with asthma (mean 6·9), chronic bronchitis (mean 7·7), or interstitial lung disease (mean 6·3). A study of simulated upper airways obstruction showed that this index rises as the obstruction becomes more severe. All of 18 patients with proved upper airways obstruction had FEV₁/PEFR indices greater than 10 (mean 14·0). This test can be carried out with forced expiratory manoeuvres only, and it does not require the use of complicated equipment. An FEV₁/PEFR ratio greater than 10, when upper airways obstruction is suspected, indicates that significant obstruction may be present. High values suggest that the obstruction may be severe, and that further investigations are indicated.     

Prevalence and diagnosis of chronic respiratory symptoms in adults.

OBJECTIVE--To investigate the prevalence and diagnosis of chronic respiratory disease in adults. DESIGN--Screening questionnaire was sent to all patients aged 40-70 on the register of a group general practice; those responding positively were sent a detailed questionnaire and invited for assessment of respiratory function by forced expiratory volume in one second, forced vital capacity, peak flow rate, and reversibility studies with a beta adrenergic inhaler. SETTING--Group general practice in south west London. RESULTS--Of 2387 patients aged 40-70, 1444 completed a screening questionnaire. Of the 509 patients who reported cough, phlegm, wheeze, or shortness of breath, 324 responded to a detailed questionnaire, 256 of whom had simple respiratory function assessed. Chronic bronchitis affected 106 (17%) men and 58 (7%) women, and wheeze occurring at least once a week affected 60 (9%) men and 20 (3%) women. Only a half to a third of patients had received a diagnostic label of chronic bronchitis or asthma for their symptoms. There was considerable clinical and physiological similarity (including reversibility of the airways) between patients labelled as having asthma and having chronic bronchitis. A label of asthma was used more often for patients of social classes I and II. CONCLUSIONS--Comparison with prevalence surveys carried out in the 1950s showed that respiratory symptoms are as common now as then, but the risk of disabling chronic bronchitis has fallen, more among men than women, probably because of their reduced smoking. Changes in diagnostic fashion, together with increased detection, may have contributed to the upward trend in reported morbidity from asthma over the past 30 years.     

Cigarette Smoke-induced Ca2+ Release Leads to Cystic Fibrosis Transmembrane Conductance Regulator (CFTR) Dysfunction

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease affects 64 million people and is currently the fourth leading cause of death worldwide. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease includes both emphysema and chronic bronchitis, and in the case of chronic bronchitis represents an inflammatory response of the airways that is associated with mucus hypersecretion and obstruction of small airways. Recently, it has emerged that exposure to cigarette smoke (CS) leads to an inhibition of the cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) Cl⁻ channel, causing airway surface liquid dehydration, which may play a role in the development of chronic bronchitis. CS rapidly clears CFTR from the plasma membrane and causes it to be deposited into aggresome-like compartments. However, little is known about the mechanism(s) responsible for the internalization of CFTR following CS exposure. Our studies revealed that CS triggered a rise in cytoplasmic Ca²⁺ that may have emanated from lysosomes. Furthermore, chelation of cytoplasmic Ca²⁺, but not inhibition of protein kinases/phosphatases, prevented CS-induced CFTR internalization. The macrolide antibiotic bafilomycin A1 inhibited CS-induced Ca²⁺ release and prevented CFTR clearance from the plasma membrane, further linking cytoplasmic Ca²⁺ and CFTR internalization. We hypothesize that CS-induced Ca²⁺ release prevents normal sorting/degradation of CFTR and causes internalized CFTR to reroute to aggresomes. Our data provide mechanistic insight into the potentially deleterious effects of CS on airway epithelia and outline a hitherto unrecognized signaling event triggered by CS that may affect the long term transition of the lung into a hyper-inflammatory/dehydrated environment.     

Smoking Habits of Men Employed in Industry,and Mortality

A study of the relation between smoking habits and lung cancer in male industrial workers over a period of three years has confirmed the earlier findings in doctors that the death-rate from lung cancer correlates closely with the number of cigarettes smoked. Of 54,460 men studied 68.7% were current cigarette smokers. The annual mortality rate from lung cancer was 0.33 per thousand in non-smokers and ex-smokers, and 1.2 per thousand for all cigarette smokers, and higher in heavy smokers.Heavy cigarette smokers who retained the cigarette in the mouth between puffs (“drooping” cigarette habit) had an annual mortality rate of 4.1 per thousand.The mortality from coronary thrombosis in smokers was nearly three times that in non-smokers. A mortality gradient with rising consumption of cigarettes was observed.Some correlation between smoking and cancer of other sites and from non-neoplastic lung disease was observed in older men, but no correlation was found with other cardiovascular diseases and cerebrovascular diseases.     

Pulmonary emphysema associated with the FZ alpha 1-antitrypsin phenotype.

In one family three brothers were found to have a moderate deficiency of alpha 1-antitrypsin associated with the unusual Pi (protease inhibitor) phenotype FZ. The Pi phenotypes of their six living siblings were found to be FM (in three), M (in two) and MZ (in one). The three FZ brothers all had moderate to severe obstructive airways disease, and two had at least moderately severe pulmonary emphysema. Additional risk factors included moderate cigarette smoking in two and prolonged exposure to grain dust in all three. The same risk factors applied to the six non-FZ siblings, but they had only mild symptoms and pulmonary dysfunction or no lung problems at all; one, a female smoker with the MZ phenotype, had probable early emphysema demonstrated radiologically. The three FZ men may have had reduced fertility, as they produced only 1 child among them, as compared with 39 among the other eight siblings. This family study thus suggests that individuals with the FZ phenotype are at risk for pulmonary emphysema and chronic obstructive airways disease, particularly in the presence of other risk factors, such as cigarette smoking and grain dust exposure.     

Bronchodilatory Effect of Warm Air Inhalation During Quiet Breathing

To evaluate the effects of air warming and humidification, we examined the spirometric responses before and after exposure to a conditioned airsteam. Seven healthy subjects, seven clinically stable patients with chronic bronchitis and seven clinically stable asthmatic patients were studied during quiet breathing. All were exposed to the following air conditions for ten minutes: −20°C, dry; 37°C, dry; 37°C, fully saturated; 50°C, dry, and 50°C, fully saturated. As heat increased, airflow progressively improved in asthmatic persons as a group. In contrast, patients with chronic bronchitis, who had more severe underlying airflow obstruction, had most improved airflow with warm dry air inhalation and showed less improvement as humidity was added isothermally. We conclude that active warming of air before inhalation can improve airflow significantly in some patients with reactive obstructed airways, and that high degrees of humidity may exert an independent adverse effect in persons with chronic bronchitis or in those with serious airflow obstruction.     

Summary of a Canadian Study of Smoking and Health

The object of this study was to investigate the relationship between residence, occupation and smoking habits, and mortality from chronic diseases, particularly lung cancer. It was a prospective study, initiated by a questionnaire sent to Canadian veteran pension recipients. The study was based on the replies of 78,000 males and 14,000 females, together with data on the deaths occurring among these respondents over a six-year follow-up period—July 1, 1956 to January 30, 1962.The outstanding finding of this study was that cigarette smokers compared to non-smokers had excessive mortality, particularly from heart and circulatory diseases, lung cancer, and bronchitis and emphysema. The mortality ratios for heart and circulatory diseases were elevated even for those who smoked cigarettes less than five years, and remained relatively constant as the duration of smoking increased. The mortality ratios for lung cancer increased markedly as the duration of smoking increased. A small excess in mortality was noted among urban residents. An association between cause of death and occupation was not evident in this study.Findings based on the data on smoking collected in this study were incorporated into the Report of the U.S. Surgeon-General''s Advisory Committee on Smoking and Health.     

Inhaling and lung cancer: an anomaly explained.

An objective index of inhaling cigarette smoke based on carboxyhaemoglobin concentrations and the carbon monoxide yields of cigarettes was used to investigate possible systematic differences in the extent of inhaling among light and heavy smokers when classified according to their self described inhaling habits. A total of 2108 men who smoked cigarettes were studied. Heavy smokers (20 or more cigarettes a day) had a higher average inhaling index than light smokers (fewer than 20 cigarettes a day) both among those who said that they inhaled and among those who said that they did not. This observation, together with indirect evidence that heavy smokers who inhale deeply may to some extent avoid depositing smoke condensate on their main bronchial epithelium, explains a hitherto unresolved anomaly--namely, that the risk of lung cancer is less among heavy cigarette smokers who say that they inhale than it is among those who say that they do not inhale.     

Sister chromatid exchanges in the peripheral blood of cigarette smokers and in lung cancer patients; and the effect of chemotherapy

Summary Peripheral blood sister chromatid exchange (SCE) rates in chronic cigarette smokers and in subjects with cancer do not differ from those in healthy nonsmokers. SCE patterns were normal in 69 chronic cigarette smokers, including 62 patients with untreated lung cancer. In three chronic smokers with lung cancer, high SCE levels were related to recent intravenous chemotherapy.Presented in part at the 15th Annual Somatic Cell Genetics Conference, Norfolk, Virginia, November 10–12, 1976 (Hollander et al., 1977)     

Mortality in relation to tar yield of cigarettes: a prospective study of four cohorts.

OBJECTIVE--To investigate relation between tar yield of manufactured cigarettes and mortality from smoking related diseases. DESIGN--Prospective epidemiological study of four cohorts of men studied between 1967 and 1982. SETTING--Combined data from British United Provident Association (BUPA) study (London), Whitehall study (London), Paisley-Renfrew study (Scotland), and United Kingdom heart disease prevention project (England and Wales). SUBJECTS--Of the 56,255 men aged over 35 who were included in the studies, 2742 deaths occurred among 12,400 smokers. Average follow up was 13 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Relative mortality from smoking related diseases according to tar yields of cigarettes smoked. RESULTS--Age adjusted mortality from smoking related diseases in smokers of filter cigarettes was 9% lower (95% confidence interval 1% to 17%) than in smokers related diseases consistently decreased with decreasing tar yield. Relative mortality in cigarette smokers for a 15 mg decrease in tar yield per cigarette was 0.75 (0.52 to 1.09) for lung cancer, 0.77 (0.61 to 0.97) for coronary heart disease, 0.86 (0.50 to 1.50) for stroke, 0.78 (0.40 to 1.48) for chronic obstructive lung diseases, 0.78 (0.65 to 0.93) for these smoking related diseases combined, and 0.77 (0.65 to 0.90) for all smoking related diseases. CONCLUSION--About a quarter of deaths from lung cancer, coronary heart disease, and possibly other smoking related diseases would have been avoided by lowering tar yield from 30 mg per cigarette to 15 mg. Reducing cigarette tar yields in Britain has had a modest effect in reducing smoking related mortality.     

Oral mucolytic drugs for exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: systematic review

ObjectiveTo assess the effects of oral mucolytics in adults with stable chronic bronchitis and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.DesignSystematic review of randomised controlled trials that compared at least two months of regular oral mucolytic drugs with placebo.StudiesTwenty three randomised controlled trials in outpatients in Europe and United States.ResultsCompared with placebo, the number of exacerbations was significantly reduced in subjects taking oral mucolytics (weighted mean difference −0.07 per month, 95% confidence interval −0.08 to −0.05, P<0.0001). Based on the annualised rate of exacerbations in the control subjects of 2.7 a year, this is a 29% reduction. The number needed to treat for one subject to have no exacerbation in the study period would be 6. Days of illness also fell (weighted mean difference −0.56, −0.77 to −0.35, P<0.0001). The number of subjects who had no exacerbations in the study period was greater in the mucolytic group (odds ratio 2.22, 95% confidence interval 1.93 to 2.54, P<0.0001). There was no difference in lung function or in adverse events reported between treatments.ConclusionsIn chronic bronchitis and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, treatment with mucolytics is associated with a reduction in acute exacerbations and days of illness. As these drugs have to be taken long term, they could be most useful in patients who have repeated, prolonged, or severe exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

What is already know on this topic

Mucolytic drugs have properties that may be beneficial in chronic obstructive pulmonary diseaseThese drugs are not prescribed in the United Kingdom and Australasia, although they are widely used in many other countriesDrugs that reduce exacerbations may reduce the morbidity and healthcare costs associated with progressively severe disease

What this study adds

Regular use of mucolytic drugs for at least two months significantly reduces exacerbations and days of illness compared with placebo in patients with chronic bronchitis and chronic obstructive pulmonary diseaseExacerbations that do occur may not be as severe, and the benefit may be greater in those with more severe diseaseReductions are modest and treatment may not be cost effective     

Environmental tobacco smoke and tobacco related mortality in a prospective study of Californians, 1960-98

Objective To measure the relation between environmental tobacco smoke, as estimated by smoking in spouses, and long term mortality from tobacco related disease.Design Prospective cohort study covering 39 years.Setting Adult population of California, United States.Participants 118 094 adults enrolled in late 1959 in the American Cancer Society cancer prevention study (CPS I), who were followed until 1998. Particular focus is on the 35 561 never smokers who had a spouse in the study with known smoking habits.Main outcome measures Relative risks and 95% confidence intervals for deaths from coronary heart disease, lung cancer, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease related to smoking in spouses and active cigarette smoking.Results For participants followed from 1960 until 1998 the age adjusted relative risk (95% confidence interval) for never smokers married to ever smokers compared with never smokers married to never smokers was 0.94 (0.85 to 1.05) for coronary heart disease, 0.75 (0.42 to 1.35) for lung cancer, and 1.27 (0.78 to 2.08) for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease among 9619 men, and 1.01 (0.94 to 1.08), 0.99 (0.72 to 1.37), and 1.13 (0.80 to 1.58), respectively, among 25 942 women. No significant associations were found for current or former exposure to environmental tobacco smoke before or after adjusting for seven confounders and before or after excluding participants with pre-existing disease. No significant associations were found during the shorter follow up periods of 1960-5, 1966-72, 1973-85, and 1973-98.Conclusions The results do not support a causal relation between environmental tobacco smoke and tobacco related mortality, although they do not rule out a small effect. The association between exposure to environmental tobacco smoke and coronary heart disease and lung cancer may be considerably weaker than generally believed.     

Relation of birth weight and childhood respiratory infection to adult lung function and death from chronic obstructive airways disease.

OBJECTIVE--To examine whether birth weight, infant weight, and childhood respiratory infection are associated with adult lung function and death from chronic obstructive airways disease. DESIGN--Follow up study of men born during 1911-30 whose birth weights, weights at 1 year, and childhood illnesses were recorded at the time by health visitors. SETTING--Hertfordshire, England. SUBJECTS--5718 men born in the county during 1911-30 and a subgroup of 825 men born in the county during 1920-30 and still living there. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Death from chronic obstructive airways disease, mean forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC), and respiratory symptoms. RESULTS--55 men died of chronic obstructive airways disease. Death rates fell with increasing birth weight and weight at 1 year. Mean FEV1 at age 59 to 70 years, adjusted for height and age, rose by 0.06 litre (95% confidence interval 0.02 to 0.09) with each pound (450 g) increase in birth weight, independently of smoking habit and social class. Bronchitis or pneumonia in infancy was associated with a 0.17 litre (0.02 to 0.32) reduction in adult FEV1 and with an increased odds ratio of wheezing and persistent sputum production in adult life independently of birth weight, smoking habit, and social class. Whooping cough in infancy was associated with a 0.22 litre (0.02 to 0.42) reduction in adult FEV1. CONCLUSIONS--Lower birth weight was associated with worse adult lung function. Intrauterine influences which retard fetal weight gain may irrecoverably constrain the growth of the airways. Bronchitis, pneumonia, or whooping cough in infancy further reduced adult lung function. They also retarded infant weight gain. Consistent with this, death from chronic obstructive airways disease in adult life was associated with lower birth weight and weight at 1 year. Promoting lung growth in fetuses and infants and reducing the incidence of lower respiratory tract infection in infancy may reduce the incidence of chronic obstructive airways disease in the next generation.