Mortality of workers at the Sellafield plant of British Nuclear Fuels.

The mortality of all 14,327 people who were known to have been employed at the Sellafield plant of British Nuclear Fuels at any time between the opening of the site in 1947 and 31 December 1975 was studied up to the end of 1983. The vital state of 96% of the workers was traced satisfactorily and 2277 were found to have died, 572 (25%) from cancer. On average the workers suffered a mortality from all causes that was 2% less than that of the general population of England and Wales and 9% less than that of the population of Cumberland (the area in which the plant is sited). Their mortality from cancers of all kinds was 5% less than that of England and Wales and 3% less than that of Cumberland. In the five years after their first employment Sellafield workers had an overall mortality that was 70% of that of England and Wales, probably due to healthier members of the population being selected for employment. Raised death rates from cancers of several specific sites were found, but only for those of ill defined and secondary sites was the excess statistically significant (30 observed, 19.7 expected). For cancers of the liver and gall bladder there was a significant deficit of deaths (four observed, 10.5 expected). Workers in areas of the plant where radiation exposure was likely were issued with dosimeters to measure their external exposure to ionising radiations. Personal dose records were maintained for workers who entered such areas other than infrequently. Workers with personal dose records ("radiation" workers) had lower death rates from all causes combined than other workers but the death rates from cancer in the two groups were similar. Compared with the general population radiation workers had statistically significant deficits of liver and gall bladder cancer, lung cancer, and Hodgkin''s disease. There were excesses of deaths from myeloma (seven observed, 4.2 expected) and prostatic cancer (19 observed, 15.8 expected) but these were not significant and there was no evidence of an excess of leukaemia (10 deaths observed, 12.2 expected) or cancer of the pancreas (15 observed, 17.8 expected). Non-radiation workers had a significant deficit of leukaemia (one death observed, 5.1 expected) and a significant excess of cancers of ill defined and secondary sites (13 deaths observed, 5.8 expected). For no type of cancer was the ratio of observed to expected deaths significantly different between radiation and non-radiation workers.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)     

Excess mortality associated with alcohol consumption.

To estimate the excess mortality due to alcohol in England and Wales death rates specific to alcohol consumption that had been derived from five longitudinal studies were applied to the current population divided into categories of alcohol consumption. Because of the J shaped relation between alcohol consumption and death the excess mortality used as a baseline was an alcohol consumption of 1-10 units/week and an adjustment was made for the slight excess mortality of abstainers. The number of excess deaths was obtained by subtracting the number of deaths expected if all the population had the consumption of the lowest risk group; correction for the total observed mortality in the population was made. This resulted in an estimate of 28,000 deaths each year in England and Wales as the excess mortality among people aged 15-74 associated with alcohol consumption.     

Cancer mortality following radium treatment for uterine bleeding

Cancer mortality in relation to radiation dose was evaluated among 4153 women treated with intrauterine radium (226Ra) capsules for benign gynecologic bleeding disorders between 1925 and 1965. Average follow up was 26.5 years (maximum = 59.9 years). Overall, 2763 deaths were observed versus 2687 expected based on U.S. mortality rates [standardized mortality ratio (SMR) = 1.03]. Deaths due to cancer, however, were increased (SMR = 1.30), especially cancers of organs close to the radiation source. For organs receiving greater than 5 Gy, excess mortality of 100 to 110% was noted for cancers of the uterus and bladder 10 or more years following irradiation, while a deficit was seen for cancer of the cervix, one of the few malignancies not previously shown to be caused by ionizing radiation. Part of the excess of uterine cancer, however, may have been due to the underlying gynecologic disorders being treated. Among cancers of organs receiving average or local doses of 1 to 4 Gy, excesses of 30 to 100% were found for leukemia and cancers of the colon and genital organs other than uterus; no excess was seen for rectal or bone cancer. Among organs typically receiving 0.1 to 0.3 Gy, a deficit was recorded for cancers of the liver, gall bladder, and bile ducts combined, death due to stomach cancer occurred at close to the expected rate, a 30% excess was noted for kidney cancer (based on eight deaths), and there was a 60% excess of pancreatic cancer among 10-year survivors, but little evidence of dose-response. Estimates of the excess relative risk per Gray were 0.006 for uterus, 0.4 for other genital organs, 0.5 for colon, 0.2 for bladder, and 1.9 for leukemia. Contrary to findings for other populations treated by pelvic irradiation, a deficit of breast cancer was not observed (SMR = 1.0). Dose to the ovaries (median, 2.3 Gy) may have been insufficient to protect against breast cancer. For organs receiving greater than 1 Gy, cancer mortality remained elevated for more than 30 years, supporting the notion that radiation damage persists for many years after exposure.     

Mortality among male anaesthetists in the United Kingdom, 1957-83.

A cohort of 3769 male anaesthetists resident in the United Kingdom between 1957 and 1983 was followed up for a total of 51,431 person years of observation. All subjects were fellows of the Faculty of Anaesthetists and held full registration with the General Medical Council. With all men in social class I being taken as the standard, the standardised mortality ratio among anaesthetists for all causes of death was 68 (95% confidence interval 59 to 77) and the standardised mortality ratio for all cancers was 50 (95% confidence interval 36 to 67). There was no significant excess mortality from lymphomas or leukaemias, but 16 of the 221 deaths in anaesthetists were due to suicide, giving a standardised mortality ratio of 202 (95% confidence interval 115 to 328). When anaesthetists were compared with all doctors the standardised mortality ratio for suicide was only 114, a nonsignificant excess. These findings confirm that the risk of suicide among anaesthetists is twice as high as among other men in social class I but suggest that the risk does not differ significantly from that among doctors as a whole. There was no evidence of a significant excess risk of cancer, and, in particular, the small excess of cancer of the pancreas reported previously could not be confirmed.     

Increased Respiratory Disease Mortality at a Microwave Popcorn Production Facility with Worker Risk of Bronchiolitis Obliterans

Background

Bronchiolitis obliterans, an irreversible lung disease, was first associated with inhalation of butter flavorings (diacetyl) in workers at a microwave popcorn company. Excess rates of lung-function abnormalities were related to cumulative diacetyl exposure. Because information on potential excess mortality would support development of permissible exposure limits for diacetyl, we investigated respiratory-associated mortality during 2000–2011 among current and former workers at this company who had exposure to flavorings and participated in cross-sectional surveys conducted between 2000–2003.

Methods

We ascertained workers'' vital status through a Social Security Administration search. Causes of death were abstracted from death certificates. Because bronchiolitis obliterans is not coded in the International Classification of Disease 10^th revision (ICD-10), we identified respiratory mortality decedents with ICD-10 codes J40–J44 which encompass bronchitis (J40), simple and mucopurulent chronic bronchitis (J41), unspecified chronic bronchitis (J42), emphysema (J43), and other chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (J44). We calculated expected number of deaths and standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) to determine if workers exposed to diacetyl experienced greater respiratory mortality than expected.

Results

We identified 15 deaths among 511 workers. Based on U.S. population estimates, 17.39 deaths were expected among these workers (SMR = 0.86; CI:0.48-1.42). Causes of death were available for 14 decedents. Four deaths among production and flavor mixing workers were documented to have a multiple cause of ‘other COPD’ (J44), while 0.98 ‘other COPD’-associated deaths were expected (SMR = 4.10; CI:1.12–10.49). Three of the 4 ‘other COPD’-associated deaths occurred among former workers and workers employed before the company implemented interventions reducing diacetyl exposure in 2001.

Conclusion

Workers at the microwave popcorn company experienced normal rates of all-cause mortality but higher rates of COPD-associated mortality, especially workers employed before the company reduced diacetyl exposure. The demonstrated excess in COPD-associated mortality suggests continued efforts to lower flavoring exposure are prudent.     

Suicide in San Francisco: Reported and Unreported

Reported suicide in San Francisco was investigated for the period between July 1956, through June 1964. During that time 1664 persons killed themselves, according to the Coroner''s records. The method most frequently used was oral ingestion of toxic substances, which significantly deviates from national statistics, shooting being the method most frequently reported. The explanation for this deviation is probably the more valid mortality statistics of San Francisco, and from this it may be inferred that unreported suicide may be largely suicide by ingestion, unrecognized because of lack of postmortem studies.Unreported suicide is further classified into intentioned (masked, suppressed and undiscovered) and subintentioned (oral-dependent and aggressive).Despite the fact that suicide has been a leading cause of death, the public and the medical profession are largely apathetic. An attempt is being made by Suicide Prevention of San Francisco, Inc. to develop a clinical and research facility for the study and treatment of suicidal persons.     

Factors associated with suicide risk among Chinese adults: A prospective cohort study of 0.5 million individuals

BackgroundSuicide is a leading cause of death in China and accounts for about one-sixth of all suicides worldwide. The objective of this study was to examine the recent distribution of suicide and risk factors for death by suicide. Identifying underlying risk factors could benefit development of evidence-based prevention and intervention programs.Methods and findingsWe conducted a prospective study, the China Kadoorie Biobank, of 512,715 individuals (41% men, mean age 52 years) from 10 (5 urban, 5 rural) areas which are diverse across China in geographic locations, social economic developmental stages, and prevalence of disease patterns. After the baseline measurements of risk factors during 2004 to 2008, participants were followed up for suicide outcomes including suicide and possible suicide deaths. Risk factors, such as sociodemographic factors and physical and mental health status, were assessed by semistructured interviews and self-report questionnaires. Suicide and possible suicide deaths were identified through linkage to the local death registries using ICD-10 codes. We conducted Cox regression to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) for suicide and for possible suicide in sensitivity analyses.During an average follow-up period of 9.9 years, 520 (101 per 100,000) people died from suicide (51.3% male), and 79.8% of them lived in rural areas. Sociodemographic factors associated with increased suicide risk were male gender (adjusted hazard ratios [aHR] = 1.6 [95% CI 1.4 to 2.0], p < 0.001), older age (1.3 [1.2 to 1.5] by each 10-yr increase, p < 0.001), rural residence (2.6 [2.1 to 3.3], p < 0.001), and single status (1.7 [1.4 to 2.2], p < 0.001). Increased hazards were found for family-related stressful life events (aHR = 1.8 [1.2 to 1.9], p < 0.001) and for major physical illnesses (1.5 [1.3 to 1.9], p < 0.001). There were strong associations of suicide with a history of lifetime mental disorders (aHR = 9.6 [5.9 to 15.6], p < 0.001) and lifetime schizophrenia-spectrum disorders (11.0 [7.1 to 17.0], p < 0.001). Links between suicide risk and depressive disorders (aHR = 2.6 [1.4 to 4.8], p = 0.002) and generalized anxiety disorders (2.6 [1.0 to 7.1], p = 0.056) in the last 12 months, and sleep disorders (1.4 [1.2 to 1.7], p < 0.001) in the past month were also found. All HRs were adjusted for sociodemographic factors including gender, age, residence, single status, education, and income. The associations with possible suicide deaths were mostly similar to those with suicide deaths, although there was no clear link between possible suicide deaths and psychiatric factors such as depression and generalized anxiety disorders. A limitation of the study is that there is likely underreporting of mental disorders due to the use of self-report information for some diagnostic categories.ConclusionsIn this study, we observed that a range of sociodemographic, lifestyle, stressful life events, physical, and mental health factors were associated with suicide in China. High-risk groups identified were elderly men in rural settings and individuals with mental disorders. These findings could form the basis of targeted approaches to reduce suicide mortality in China.

In a prospective cohort study, Rongqin Yu, Yiping Chen and colleagues investigate factors related to death by suicide among Chinese adults.     

Excess mortality rate during adulthood among Danish adoptees

Background and objective

Adoption studies have been used to disentangle the influence of genes from shared familial environment on various traits and disease risks. However, both the factors leading to adoption and living as an adoptee may bias the studies with regard to the relative influence of genes and environment compared to the general population. The aim was to investigate whether the cohort of domestic adoptees used for these studies in Denmark is similar to the general population with respect to all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality rates.

Methods

13,111 adoptees born in Denmark in 1917, or later, and adopted in 1924 to 1947 were compared to all Danes from the same birth cohorts using standardized mortality ratios (SMR). The 12,729 adoptees alive in 1970 were similarly compared to all Danes using SMR as well as cause-specific SMR.

Results

The excess in all-cause mortality before age 65 years in adoptees was estimated to be 1.30 (95% CI 1.26–1.35). Significant excess mortality before age 65 years was also observed for infections, vascular deaths, cancer, alcohol-related deaths and suicide. Analyses including deaths after age 65 generally showed slightly less excess in mortality, but the excess was significant for all-cause mortality, cancer, alcohol-related deaths and suicides.

Conclusion

Adoptees have an increased all-cause mortality compared to the general population. All major specific causes of death contributed, and the highest excess is seen for alcohol-related deaths.     

Epidemiological study of suicide in Croatia (1993-2003)--comparison of Mediterranean and continental areas

The aim of this study is to analyze eventual differences in characteristic of suicide between two areas of the Republic of Croatia, mediterranean and continental, according to the following variables: suicidal rates, season, month, day, method, places, socioeconomic variables such as gender, ages, marital status, employment, education, and psychiatric or medical characteristic. Data were collected from the Suicide register of the Ministry of Interior, and Croatian Bureau of Statistic. Analysis was done on all suicide cases committed in the period 1993-2003. According to the Suicide Register of Ministry of Interior, 11,359 suicides were reported in period between 1993 and 2003. The average suicide rate in the Mediterranean area was lower (16.44 suicides per year) than in continental area of Croatia (26.34 suicides per year). Suicide committers in the Mediterranean area was statistically significant younger than suicide committers in the continental area of Croatia. In the continental area male suicide committers were more often than in the Mediterranean area of Croatia. In the Mediterranean area suicide committers were in most cases with high school education while in continental area of Croatia most cases of suicide committers were with elementary school education. Alcohol dependence, family conflicts, and medical disorders were more often present as suicidal motive in suicide committers in continental area of Croatia than in the Mediterranean area where undefined and unknown reason of suicide is present in majority of suicide cases. Cold steel, drowning, and jumping from height were more often present as suicidal method in the Mediterranean area of Croatia opposite to continental area of Croatia where jumping in front of car or train and suicide with firearms and explosive were more often. Also, in the Mediterranean area of Croatia suicides was mostly committed on open spaces and public places while in continental area of Croatia suicides was mostly committed in private plot.     

Has the mortality of male doctors improved with the reductions in their cigarette smoking?

From 1951 to 1971 male doctors reduced their cigarette smoking more than did men in social classes I and II combined. In 1970-2, 665 male doctors died aged under 65. Had they shown the same improvements in cause-specific death rates over the 20 years as men in classes I and II, 699 deaths would have been expected. This "saving" of 34 deaths in the doctors comprised savings from coronary heart disease (83), stroke (16), and lung cancer (8) balanced by 60 "losses" from three stress-related causes--namely, accident, poisonings, etc (30); suicide (26); and cirrhosis of the liver (4)--plus 13 from other causes. As a relative reduction in mortality from heart disease in doctors (as compared with that in social classes I and II) also occurred during 1931-51--that is, before they began to give up smoking--some of the saving in heart-disease deaths in 1951-71 was probably not related to changes in smoking habits. The relative worsening in mortality from stress-related diseases may have been due partly to a possible adverse effect of giving up smoking if smoking had acted to reduce stress. From these findings, the benefits of giving up smoking may not be so great as has commonly been assumed.     

Ecological study of social fragmentation,poverty, and suicide

ObjectivesTo investigate the association between suicide and area based measures of deprivation and social fragmentation.DesignEcological study.Setting633 parliamentary constituencies of Great Britain as defined in 1991.ResultsMortality from suicide and all other causes increased with increasing Townsend deprivation score, social fragmentation score, and abstention from voting in all age and sex groups. Suicide mortality was most strongly related to social fragmentation, whereas deaths from other causes were more closely associated with Townsend score. Constituencies with absolute increases in social fragmentation and Townsend scores between 1981 and 1991 tended to have greater increases in suicide rates over the same period. The relation between change in social fragmentation and suicide was largely independent of Townsend score, whereas the association with Townsend score was generally reduced after adjustment for social fragmentation.ConclusionsSuicide rates are more strongly associated with measures of social fragmentation than with poverty at a constituency level.

Key messages

• Place of residence may affect health, and mortality from most common diseases tends to be higher in areas characterised by low socioeconomic position
• Research dating back over 100 years suggests that social fragmentation may influencesuicide
• In the 1980s and 1990s, parliamentary constituencies with high levels of social fragmentation had high rates of suicide, independent of deprivation
• Constituencies with the greatest increases in social fragmentation between 1981 and 1991 also had the greatest increases in suicide rates over the same period
• Any targeting of suicide prevention may be more effective if aimed at socially fragmented rather than deprived areas

     

Excess mortality associated with influenza epidemics in Portugal, 1980 to 2004

Background

Influenza epidemics have a substantial impact on human health, by increasing the mortality from pneumonia and influenza, respiratory and circulatory diseases, and all causes. This paper provides estimates of excess mortality rates associated with influenza virus circulation for 7 causes of death and 8 age groups in Portugal during the period of 1980–2004.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We compiled monthly mortality time series data by age for all-cause mortality, cerebrovascular diseases, ischemic heart diseases, diseases of the respiratory system, chronic respiratory diseases, pneumonia and influenza. We also used a control outcome, deaths from injuries. Age- and cause-specific baseline mortality was modelled by the ARIMA approach; excess deaths attributable to influenza were calculated by subtracting expected deaths from observed deaths during influenza epidemic periods. Influenza was associated with a seasonal average of 24.7 all-cause excess deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, approximately 90% of which were among seniors over 65 yrs. Excess mortality was 3–6 fold higher during seasons dominated by the A(H3N2) subtype than seasons dominated by A(H1N1)/B. High excess mortality impact was also seen in children under the age of four years. Seasonal excess mortality rates from all the studied causes of death were highly correlated with each other (Pearson correlation range, 0.65 to 0.95, P<0.001) and with seasonal rates of influenza-like-illness (ILI) among seniors over 65 years (Pearson correlation rho>0.64, P<0.05). By contrast, there was no correlation with excess mortality from injuries.

Conclusions/Significance

Our excess mortality approach is specific to influenza virus activity and produces influenza-related mortality rates for Portugal that are similar to those published for other countries. Our results indicate that all-cause excess mortality is a robust indicator of influenza burden in Portugal, and could be used to monitor the impact of influenza epidemics in this country. Additional studies are warranted to confirm these findings in other settings.     

Life shortening in mice exposed to fission neutrons and gamma rays. VIII. Exposures to continuous gamma radiation

Data are presented on the mean aftersurvival of male B6CF1 mice exposed for 22 h per day, 5 days per week, to 60Co gamma radiation at dose rates of 1.36 to 12.64 x 10(-3) cGy/min for 23 weeks or 1.36 to 6.32 x 10(-3) cGy/min for 59 weeks. For deaths from all causes, linear dose-response curves were obtained with slopes (days of life lost/cGy) of 0.158 +/- 0.016 and 0.077 +/- 0.002 for 23- and 59-week exposures, respectively. These values were not significantly altered when the analysis was restricted to those mice dying with tumors (92% of the total) or to those presumably dying from tumors (82% of the total). Analysis of mortality rates showed that about 90% of the radiation-specific excess mortality was tumor related. The 59-week exposure series induced only a small increase in the number of days of life lost/cGy/weekly fraction over that induced by 23 weeks of irradiation, 4.53 +/- 0.15 compared to 3.64 +/- 0.36 days lost/cGy/weekly fraction. This lower than expected value for 59 weeks of exposure may signal the approach to the final linear, additive, injury term postulated from earlier studies at this laboratory with low-dose-rate, daily, duration-of-life 60Co gamma irradiation.     

Epidemiology of suicide pacts in England and Wales, 1988-92.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the epidemiology of suicide pacts in England and Wales DESIGN: Analysis of the death certificates and coroners'' records of all people who died in pacts between 1 January 1988 and 31 December 1992. SUBJECTS: 124 people who committed suicide in 62 pacts. RESULTS: Suicide in a pact accounted for 0.6% of all suicides (124/19721), a rate of 0.6 per million people aged 15 and over. Forty eight pacts were between married couples and five were between family members. The mean age was 56 years. 99 of the 124 subjects were of occupational social classes I-III. Poisoning by car exhaust fumes and drugs accounted for 116 deaths, with both members of each pair using the same method. CONCLUSIONS: Suicide pacts are rare and less common than they were 35 years ago, although the epidemiological profile is similar. People who commit suicide in a pact are more likely than those who commit suicide alone to be female, older, married, and of a high social class.     

Lung Cancer Mortality Trends in Canada, 1931-1960

Trends in mortality due to lung cancer in Canada since 1931 were reviewed and data for 1960 presented. In 1960, 2223 male deaths were due to lung cancer. In each five-year age group over 45, there has been a distinct increase in male lung cancer death rates since 1931. The greatest increase occurred between the ages of 65 and 79. The age group 70-74, where the lung cancer mortality rates increased from 10.7 in the period 1931-33 to 173.5 in 1958-60, indicates the trend. Between 1931 and 1960, the proportion of male lung cancer deaths to all male cancer deaths increased from 3% to 18.8%. Female deaths due to lung cancer numbered 321 in 1960. Between 1931 and 1960 the proportion of female lung cancer deaths to all female cancer deaths increased only from 1.4% to 3.2%.     

Further follow up of mortality and incidence of cancer in men from the United Kingdom who participated in the United Kingdom's atmospheric nuclear weapon tests and experimental programmes.

OBJECTIVES--To study the long term effects of participation in the United Kingdom''s atmospheric nuclear weapon tests and experimental programmes and to test hypotheses generated by an earlier report, including the possibility that participation in tests caused small hazards of leukaemia and multiple myeloma. DESIGN--Follow up study of mortality and cancer incidence. SUBJECTS--21,358 servicemen and civilians from the United Kingdom who participated in the tests and a control group of 22,333 non-participants. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Numbers of deaths; standardised mortality ratios; relative risks of mortality from all causes and 27 types of cancer. RESULTS--During seven further years of follow up the numbers of deaths observed in participants were fewer than expected from national rates for all causes, all neoplasms, leukaemia, and multiple myeloma (standardised mortality ratios 0.86, 0.85, 0.57, and 0.46); death rates were lower than in controls (relative risks 0.99, 0.96, 0.57, and 0.57; 90% confidence intervals all included 1.00). In the period more than 10 years after the initial participation in tests the relative risk of death in participants compared with controls was near unity for all causes (relative risk 0.99 (0.95 to 1.04) and all neoplasms (0.95 (0.87 to 1.04)); it was raised for bladder cancer (2.69 (1.42 to 5.20)) and reduced for cancers of the mouth, tongue, and pharynx (0.45 (0.22 to 0.93)) and for lung cancer (0.85 (0.73 to 0.99)). For leukaemia mortality was equal to that expected from national rates but greater than in controls for both the whole follow up period (1.75 (1.01 to 3.06)) and the period 2-25 years after the tests (3.38 (1.45 to 8.25)). CONCLUSION--Participation in nuclear weapon tests had no detectable effect on expectation of life or on subsequent risk of developing cancer or other fatal diseases. The excess of leukaemia in participants compared with controls seems to be principally due to a chance deficit in the controls, but the possibility that participation in the tests may have caused a small risk of leukaemia in the early years afterwards cannot be ruled out.     

Mortality in relation to smoking: 40 years' observations on male British doctors.

OBJECTIVE--To assess the hazards associated with long term use of tobacco. DESIGN--Prospective study of mortality in relation to smoking habits assessed in 1951 and again from time to time thereafter, with causes sought of deaths over 40 years (to 1991). Continuation of a study that was last reported after 20 years'' follow up (1951-71). SUBJECTS--34,439 British male doctors who replied to a postal questionnaire in 1951, of whom 10,000 had died during the first 20 years and another 10,000 have died during the second 20 years. RESULTS--Excess mortality associated with smoking was about twice as extreme during the second half of the study as it had been during the first half. The death rate ratios during 1971-91 (comparing continuing cigarette smokers with life-long non-smokers) were approximately threefold at ages 45-64 and twofold at ages 65-84. The excess mortality was chiefly from diseases that can be caused by smoking. Positive associations with smoking were confirmed for death from cancers of the mouth, oesophagus, pharynx, larynx, lung, pancreas, and bladder; from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and other respiratory diseases; from vascular diseases; from peptic ulcer; and (perhaps because of confounding by personality and alcohol use) from cirrhosis, suicide, and poisoning. A negative association was confirmed with death from Parkinson''s disease. Those who stopped smoking before middle age subsequently avoided almost all of the excess risk that they would otherwise have suffered, but even those who stopped smoking in middle age were subsequently at substantially less risk than those who continued to smoke. CONCLUSION--Results from the first 20 years of this study, and of other studies at that time, substantially underestimated the hazards of long term use of tobacco. It now seems that about half of all regular cigarette smokers will eventually be killed by their habit.     

Follow up study of children born to mothers resident in Seascale,West Cumbria (birth cohort).

Records on 1068 children who were born to mothers resident in Seascale Civil Parish during 1950-83 were studied. There was a large degree of mobility among the families, and nearly half of the children did not subsequently attend the main local school. Use of the National Health Service Central Register, however, enabled us to follow up the children''s records regardless of place of residence. The excess of leukaemia among Seascale children first supported from the analysis of geographical areas is confirmed. There were five deaths from leukaemia identified to 30 June 1986 compared with 0.53 expected at national rates--a ratio of 9.36 (95% confidence interval 3.04 to 21.84). One of these deaths occurred after the child had left Seascale. There were four deaths from other cancers compared with 1.06 expected--a ratio of 3.76 (95% CI 1.02 to 9.63). In addition, three further cases of cancer, apart from the deaths, were reported compared with 1.19 expected since 1971--a ratio of 2.53 (95% CI 0.52 to 7.40). For other causes of death, including stillbirths and infant mortality, there was a reported deficit compared with national rates, some of which at least was to be expected on the basis of the social class composition of the population of Seascale. In view of the importance of this cohort of births continued follow up is planned, with the possibility of extending it to include births since 1983, and the methods available for this type of study will be examined further.     

Association between the Density of Physicians and Suicide Rates in Japan: Nationwide Ecological Study Using a Spatial Bayesian Model

Background

Regional disparity in suicide rates is a serious problem worldwide. One possible cause is unequal distribution of the health workforce, especially psychiatrists. Research about the association between regional physician numbers and suicide rates is therefore important but studies are rare. The objective of this study was to evaluate the association between physician numbers and suicide rates in Japan, by municipality.

Methods

The study included all the municipalities in Japan (n = 1,896). We estimated smoothed standardized mortality ratios of suicide rates for each municipality and evaluated the association between health workforce and suicide rates using a hierarchical Bayesian model accounting for spatially correlated random effects, a conditional autoregressive model. We assumed a Poisson distribution for the observed number of suicides and set the expected number of suicides as the offset variable. The explanatory variables were numbers of physicians, a binary variable for the presence of psychiatrists, and social covariates.

Results

After adjustment for socioeconomic factors, suicide rates in municipalities that had at least one psychiatrist were lower than those in the other municipalities. There was, however, a positive and statistically significant association between the number of physicians and suicide rates.

Conclusions

Suicide rates in municipalities that had at least one psychiatrist were lower than those in other municipalities, but the number of physicians was positively and significantly related with suicide rates. To improve the regional disparity in suicide rates, the government should encourage psychiatrists to participate in community-based suicide prevention programs and to settle in municipalities that currently have no psychiatrists. The government and other stakeholders should also construct better networks between psychiatrists and non-psychiatrists to support sharing of information for suicide prevention.     

Decline in ischaemic heart disease in Iceland and change in risk factor levels.

OBJECTIVE--To monitor trends in mortality and morbidity due to ischaemic heart disease and compare these with observed levels of risk factors from population surveys. DESIGN--Analysis of trends in death rates from ischaemic heart disease in Iceland compared with expected rates computed from population surveys. Risk factor levels together with beta factors obtained from Cox''s regression analysis were used to compute expected death rates. Trends in morbidity due to acute myocardial infarction were assessed and secular trends in dietary consumption compared with trends in cholesterol concentrations. SETTING--Reykjavik, Iceland (total population 250,000; over half the population live in Reykjavik). SUBJECTS--12,814 randomly selected residents in the Reykjavik area aged 45-64 (6623 men, 6191 women; 72% and 80% of those invited). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Age adjusted rates of myocardial infarction and deaths from ischaemic heart disease. Expected risk from risk factor levels (smoking, total serum cholesterol concentration, systolic blood pressure) at each unique survey visit. RESULTS--Mortality from ischaemic heart disease has decreased by 17-18% since 1970. During 1981-6 the myocardial infarction attack rate in men under 75 decreased by 23%. A decrease occurred in the level of all three major risk factors after 1968. The fall in the serum cholesterol concentration coincided with a reduction in consumption of dairy fat and margarine. The calculated reduction in risk for the age group 45-64 was about 35%, which was closely similar to the observed decrease in mortality due to ischaemic heart disease in that age group. CONCLUSION--The reduction in mortality from ischaemic heart disease was substantially due to a decreased incidence of myocardial infarction and could be attributed largely to the reduction in risk factors.