Major life-history transitions by deterministic directional natural selection

For large-scale evolution on Earth there has been a directional change where simple self-replicators evolved into large organisms with high metabolic rates and long pre-reproductive periods. Associated with this increase there have been major life-history transitions from asomatic, non-senescing, haploid, and asexually reproducing organisms to somatic, senescing, diploid, and sexually reproducing organisms with male and female individuals. Using a game theoretical model, it is shown that this trajectory can be explained by deterministic natural selection as it arises from first principles of the self-replication process in mobile organisms. It is shown (i) that selection for an increase in the energetic state of the organism puts a direction to evolution, (ii) that selection by density-dependent competitive interactions can explain the major life-history transitions as a function of the energetic state of the organism, and (iii) that the two selection processes combined can explain an exponentially increasing body mass. It is also shown (iv) why, for the case with an increasing body mass, we may expect many life histories to evolve in accordance with the exponents of the body mass allometries, (v) that an upper constraint on the body mass and metabolic rate can induce an additional transition into eusocial communities, and (vi) that the evolutionary trajectory is likely reversible with backward evolution during periods of environmental crises.     

Kin competition,natal dispersal and the moulding of senescence by natural selection

Most theoretical models for the evolution of senescence have assumed a very large, well mixed population. Here, we investigate how limited dispersal and kin competition might influence the evolution of ageing by deriving indicators of the force of selection, similar to Hamilton (Hamilton 1966 J. Theor. Biol. 12, 12–45). Our analytical model describes how the strength of selection on survival and fecundity changes with age in a patchy population, where adults are territorial and a fraction of juveniles disperse between territories. Both parent–offspring competition and sib competition then affect selection on age-specific life-history traits. Kin competition reduces the strength of selection on survival. Mutations increasing mortality in some age classes can even be favoured by selection, but only when fecundity deteriorates rapidly with age. Population structure arising from limited dispersal however selects for a broader distribution of reproduction over the lifetime, potentially slowing down reproductive senescence. The antagonistic effects of limited dispersal on age schedules of fecundity and mortality cast doubts on the generality of conditions allowing the evolution of ‘suicide genes’ that increase mortality rates without other direct pleiotropic effects. More generally, our model illustrates how limited dispersal and social interactions can indirectly produce patterns of antagonistic pleiotropy affecting vital rates at different ages.     

Patterns of age-specific means and genetic variances of mortality rates predicted by the mutation-accumulation theory of ageing

A general quantitative genetic model of mutations with age-specific deleterious effects is developed. It is shown that, for the simplest case of a species with age-independent reproductive rates and extrinsic adult mortality rates, and no pleiotropic effects of age-specific mutations, exponential increases with age of both the mean and additive genetic variance of age-specific mortality rates are expected. Models where age-specific mutations have pleiotropic effects on mortality that extend either throughout adult life, or are confined to juvenile stages, produce equilibria with exponential increases in the mean and additive variance of mortality rates during much of adult life. However, the rates of increase diminish late in life, and can even become zero. Predictions concerning the additive genetic correlations in mortality rates between different ages are also developed. The predictions of the models are compared with data on humans and Drosophila.     

On the moulding of senescence by natural selection in sexual and partly sexual populations

Under a wide variety of dynamic environmental conditions, natural selection appears to favor reproductive investment in a sexually produced offspring, carrying only half of the mother’s genes, over the investment in an asexually produced offspring, genetically identical to her. It is maintained that the same environmental conditions must affect the evolutionary cost and benefit of an investment in the prolongation of one’s own life versus an investment in sexual reproduction, in favor of the latter. The effects of different environmental conditions on the division of resources among sexual reproduction, asexual reproduction and prolongation of life are studied.     

Quantitative genetic tests of recent senescence theory: age-specific mortality and male fertility in Drosophila melanogaster

Quantitative genetic models of aging predict that additive genetic variance for fitness components should increase with age. However, recent studies have found that at very late ages, the genetic variance components decline. This decline may be due to an age-related drop in reproductive effort. If genetic variance in reproductive effort affects the genetic variance in mortality, the decline in reproductive effort at late ages should lead to a decrease in the genetic variance in mortality. To test this, we carried out a large-scale quantitative genetic analysis of age-specific mortality and fertility in virgin male Drosophila melanogaster. As in earlier studies, we found that the additive variance for age-specific mortality and fertility declined at late ages. Also, recent theoretical developments provide new predictions to distinguish between the mutation accumulation (MA) and antagonistic pleiotropy (AP) models of senescence. The deleterious effects of inbreeding are expected to increase with age under MA, but not under AP. This prediction was supported for both age-specific mortality and male fertility. Under AP, the ratio of dominance to additive variance is expected to decline with age. This predicition, too, was supported by the data analyzed here. Taken together, these analyses provide support for both the models playing a role in the aging process. We argue that the time has come to move beyond a simple comparison of these genetic models, and to think more deeply about the evolutionary causes and consequences of senescence.     

Explaining the optimality of U-shaped age-specific mortality

Mortality is U-shaped with age for many species, declining from birth to sexual maturity, then rising in adulthood, sometimes with postreproductive survival. We show analytically why the optimal life history of a species with determinate growth is likely to have this shape. An organism allocates energy among somatic growth, fertility and maintenance/survival at each age. Adults may transfer energy to juveniles, who can then use more energy than they produce. Optimal juvenile mortality declines from birth to maturity, either to protect the increasingly valuable cumulative investments by adults in juveniles or to exploit the compounding effects of early investment in somatic growth, since early growth raises subsequent energy production, which in turn supports further growth. Optimal adult mortality rises after maturity as expected future reproduction declines as in Hamilton, but intergenerational transfers lead to postreproductive survival as in Lee. Here the Hamilton and transfer effects are divided by probabilities of survival in contrast to the fitness impact measures, which are relevant for mutation-selection balance. If energetic efficiency rises strongly with adult experience, then adult mortality could initially be flat or declining.     

Selection on plasticity of seasonal life-history traits using random regression mixed model analysis

Theory considers the covariation of seasonal life-history traits as an optimal reaction norm, implying that deviating from this reaction norm reduces fitness. However, the estimation of reaction-norm properties (i.e., elevation, linear slope, and higher order slope terms) and the selection on these is statistically challenging. We here advocate the use of random regression mixed models to estimate reaction-norm properties and the use of bivariate random regression to estimate selection on these properties within a single model. We illustrate the approach by random regression mixed models on 1115 observations of clutch sizes and laying dates of 361 female Ural owl Strix uralensis collected over 31 years to show that (1) there is variation across individuals in the slope of their clutch size-laying date relationship, and that (2) there is selection on the slope of the reaction norm between these two traits. Hence, natural selection potentially drives the negative covariance in clutch size and laying date in this species. The random-regression approach is hampered by inability to estimate nonlinear selection, but avoids a number of disadvantages (stats-on-stats, connecting reaction-norm properties to fitness). The approach is of value in describing and studying selection on behavioral reaction norms (behavioral syndromes) or life-history reaction norms. The approach can also be extended to consider the genetic underpinning of reaction-norm properties.     

Patterns of natural selection at the Alcohol dehydrogenase gene of Drosophila americana

Similar outcomes are often observed in species exposed to similar selective regimes, but it is unclear how often the same mechanism of adaptive evolution is followed. Here we present an analysis of selection affecting sequence variation in the Alcohol dehydrogenase (Adh) gene of Drosophila americana, a species endemic to a large climate range that has been colonized by D. melanogaster. Unlike D. melanogaster, there is no evidence of selection on allozymes of ADH across the sampled range. This indicates that if there has been a similar adaptive response to climate in D. americana, it is not within the coding region of Adh. Instead, analyses of a combined dataset containing 86 alleles of Adh reveal purifying selection on the Adh gene, especially within its intron sequences. Frequency spectra of derived unpreferred variants at synonymous sites indicate that these sites are affected by weak purifying selection, but the deviation from neutrality is less drastic than observed for derived variants in noncoding introns. This contrast further supports the notion that noncoding sites in Drosophila are often subject to stronger selection pressures than synonymous sites.     

Patterns of natural selection at the Alcohol dehydrogenase gene of Drosophila americana

Similar outcomes are often observed in species exposed to similar selective regimes, but it is unclear how often the same mechanism of adaptive evolution is followed. Here we present an analysis of selection affecting sequence variation in the Alcohol dehydrogenase (Adh) gene of Drosophila americana, a species endemic to a large climate range that has been colonized by D. melanogaster. Unlike D. melanogaster, there is no evidence of selection on allozymes of ADH across the sampled range. This indicates that if there has been a similar adaptive response to climate in D. americana, it is not within the coding region of Adh. Instead, analyses of a combined dataset containing 86 alleles of Adh reveal purifying selection on the Adh gene, especially within its intron sequences. Frequency spectra of derived unpreferred variants at synonymous sites indicate that these sites are affected by weak purifying selection, but the deviation from neutrality is less drastic than observed for derived variants in noncoding introns. This contrast further supports the notion that noncoding sites in Drosophila are often subject to stronger selection pressures than synonymous sites.     

Sex- and age-specific survival of the highly dimorphic Alpine ibex: evidence for a conservative life-history tactic

1. Age-specific survival of 215 males and 117 females of the highly sexually dimorphic Alpine ibex Capra ibex (L.) was assessed from a 21-year capture-mark-recapture (CMR) programme (1983-2004). The study covered two contrasted periods of population performance (high performance from 1983 to 1997 vs. low performance from 1998 onwards). 2. Based on current life-history theories for sexually dimorphic species, we expected that survival should decrease with age in both sexes, female survival should be buffered against environmental variations, male survival should decrease during the low performance period, and adult survival should be lower in males than females during the low performance period. 3. Survival of both sexes was strongly affected by age, with the four age classes (yearling, prime-aged adults of 2-8 years of age, old adults of 8-13 years of age, and senescent adults from 13 years of age onwards) generally reported for large herbivores. 4. Survival of females at all ages, and of yearling and prime-aged males, was buffered against environmental variations and was the same during periods of high and low population performance. The survival of old males decreased in years of low population performance. 5. All marked yearlings (32 females, 56 males) survived to age 2. Survival of prime-aged females (0.996 +/- 0.011) was higher than for other large herbivores, but similarly to other large herbivore species, it declined slowly and regularly with increasing age afterwards. Male survival was 5-15% higher each year than that of males of other large herbivores. Males enjoyed very high survival when prime-aged (0.981 +/- 0.009) and as old adults (high-performance period: 0.965 +/- 0.028, low-performance period: 0.847 +/- 0.032). 6. The very high survival of males, coupled with their prolonged mass gain, suggests a highly conservative reproductive tactic. Male ibex differ from similar-sized herbivores by showing a nearly indeterminate growth in horn size and body mass. By surviving to an advanced age, males may enjoy high reproductive success because of their large size.     

Avian growth and development rates and age-specific mortality: the roles of nest predation and adult mortality

Previous studies have shown that avian growth and development covary with juvenile mortality. Juveniles of birds under strong nest predation pressure grow rapidly, have short incubation and nestling periods, and leave the nest at low body mass. Life-history theory predicts that parental investment increases with adult mortality rate. Thus, developmental traits that depend on the parental effort exerted (pre- and postnatal growth rate) should scale positively with adult mortality, in contrast to those that do not have a direct relationship with parental investment (timing of developmental events, e.g. nest leaving). I tested this prediction on a sample of 84 North American songbirds. Nestling growth rate scaled positively and incubation period duration negatively with annual adult mortality rates even when controlled for nest predation and other covariates, including phylogeny. On the contrary, neither the duration of the nestling period nor body mass at fledging showed any relationship. Proximate mechanisms generating the relationship of pre- and postnatal growth rates to adult mortality may include increased feeding, nest attentiveness during incubation and/or allocation of hormones, and deserve further attention.     

Homoclinic chaos in a model of natural selection

 We modify a simple mathematical model for natural selection originally formulated by Robert M. May in 1983 by permitting one homozygote to have a larger selective advantage when rare than the other, and show that the new model exhibits dynamical chaos. We determine an open region of parameter space associated with homoclinic points, and prove that there are infinite sequences of period-doubling bifurcations along selected paths through parameter space. We also discuss the possibility of chaos arising from imbalance in the homozygote fitnesses in more realistic biological situations, beyond the constraints of the model. Received 3 February 1995; received in revised form 1 November 1995     

Fundamental theorem of natural selection and frequency-dependent selection: analysis of the matrix game diploid model

Following Ewens' interpretation about Fisher's fundamental theorem of natural selection, the matrix game model for diploid populations undergoing non-overlapping, discrete generations is investigated. The total genetic variance is decomposed and it is shown that the partial change in the mean fitness, which is equal to the additive genetic variance over the mean fitness, can be thought of as a change due only to the partial changes in the phenotypic frequencies.     

Competition and natural selection in a mathematical model of cancer

A malignant tumor is a dynamic amalgamation of various cell phenotypes, both cancerous (parenchyma) and healthy (stroma). These diverse cells compete over resources as well as cooperate to maintain tumor viability. Therefore, tumors are both an ecological community and an integrated tissue. An understanding of how natural selection operates in this unique ecological context should expose unappreciated vulnerabilities shared by all cancers. In this study I address natural selection’s role in tumor evolution by developing and exploring a mathematical model of a heterogenous primary neoplasm. The model is a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations tracking the mass of up to two different parenchyma cell types, the mass of vascular endothelial cells from which new tumor blood vessels are built and the total length of tumor microvessels. Results predict the possibility of a hypertumor—a focus of aggressively reproducing parenchyma cells that invade and destroy part or all of the tumor, perhaps before it becomes a clinical entity. If this phenomenon occurs, then we should see examples of tumors that develop an aggressive histology but are paradoxically prone to extinction. Neuroblastoma, a common childhood cancer, may sometimes fit this pattern. In addition, this model suggests that parenchyma cell diversity can be maintained by a tissue-like integration of cells specialized to provide different services.