Estimating the impact of newly arrived foreign-born persons on tuberculosis in the United States

Background

Among approximately 163.5 million foreign-born persons admitted to the United States annually, only 500,000 immigrants and refugees are required to undergo overseas tuberculosis (TB) screening. It is unclear what extent of the unscreened nonimmigrant visitors contributes to the burden of foreign-born TB in the United States.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We defined foreign-born persons within 1 year after arrival in the United States as “newly arrived”, and utilized data from U.S. Department of Homeland Security, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and World Health Organization to estimate the incidence of TB among newly arrived foreign-born persons in the United States. During 2001 through 2008, 11,500 TB incident cases, including 291 multidrug-resistant TB incident cases, were estimated to occur among 20,989,738 person-years for the 1,479,542,654 newly arrived foreign-born persons in the United States. Of the 11,500 estimated TB incident cases, 41.6% (4,783) occurred among immigrants and refugees, 36.6% (4,211) among students/exchange visitors and temporary workers, 13.8% (1,589) among tourists and business travelers, and 7.3% (834) among Canadian and Mexican nonimmigrant visitors without an I-94 form (e.g., arrival-departure record). The top 3 newly arrived foreign-born populations with the largest estimated TB incident cases per 100,000 admissions were immigrants and refugees from high-incidence countries (e.g., 2008 WHO-estimated TB incidence rate of ≥100 cases/100,000 population/year; 235.8 cases/100,000 admissions, 95% confidence interval [CI], 228.3 to 243.3), students/exchange visitors and temporary workers from high-incidence countries (60.9 cases/100,000 admissions, 95% CI, 58.5 to 63.3), and immigrants and refugees from medium-incidence countries (e.g., 2008 WHO-estimated TB incidence rate of 15–99 cases/100,000 population/year; 55.2 cases/100,000 admissions, 95% CI, 51.6 to 58.8).

Conclusions/Significance

Newly arrived nonimmigrant visitors contribute substantially to the burden of foreign-born TB in the United States. To achieve the goals of TB elimination, direct investment in global TB control and strategies to target nonimmigrant visitors should be considered.     

Incidence of tuberculosis among reported AIDS cases in Quebec from 1979 to 1996

BACKGROUND: The impact of HIV infection on tuberculosis (TB) rates in Quebec has not been fully established. Because concurrent HIV infection is the single most important factor in TB reactivation, the authors used Quebec AIDS surveillance data to quantify the extent of TB among reported AIDS cases and to identify the characteristics of AIDS patients with TB. METHODS: The study population comprised people aged 15 years and over with AIDS diagnosed between Jan. 1, 1979, and Dec. 31, 1996, and reported by Mar. 13, 1997. Patients with TB (all forms) and those without TB were compared. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to examine the independent effect of each variable on the AIDS-TB cases. The authors also compared the number of AIDS-TB cases with the number of TB cases to estimate the effect of HIV infection on TB incidence. RESULTS: Of the 4684 people with AIDS reported in Quebec, 242 (5.2%) had active TB at some point during the course of their illness. During 1992-1995, 9.6% of the people with TB in Montreal, and 5.8% in the province of Quebec, also had HIV infection. Those with AIDS and TB were predominantly male (75.2%), manual workers (40.1%) and residents of Montreal (86.4%) and were born in an HIV-endemic country (63.8%). The multivariate analysis indicated that AIDS patients who were born in HIV-endemic countries in the Caribbean, sub-Saharan Africa or other developing regions were 21.8 times (95% confidence interval [CI] 19.5-28.5), 17.9 times (95% CI 12.7-27.1) and 4.9 times (95% CI 3.5-7.0) more likely to have TB than those born in Canada; manual workers and unemployed people with AIDS were 1.6 times (95% CI 1.3-2.0) and 2.0 times (95% CI 1.5-2.6) more likely to have TB than professional workers; and people who acquired HIV infection through heterosexual contact were 2.1 times (95% CI 1.6-3.1) more likely to have TB than men who acquired it through sexual contact with other men. INTERPRETATION: AIDS seems to contribute significantly to the number of TB cases. The results of this study reinforce the importance of offering HIV testing to people in high-risk groups, such as those born in a country where HIV and TB is endemic.     

Abrupt Decline in Tuberculosis among Foreign-Born Persons in the United States

While the number of reported tuberculosis (TB) cases in the United States has declined over the past two decades, TB morbidity among foreign-born persons has remained persistently elevated. A recent unexpected decline in reported TB cases among foreign-born persons beginning in 2007 provided an opportunity to examine contributing factors and inform future TB control strategies. We investigated the relative influence of three factors on the decline: 1) changes in the size of the foreign-born population through immigration and emigration, 2) changes in distribution of country of origin among foreign-born persons, and 3) changes in the TB case rates among foreign-born subpopulations. Using data from the U.S. National Tuberculosis Surveillance System and the American Community Survey, we examined TB case counts, TB case rates, and population estimates, stratified by years since U.S. entry and country of origin. Regression modeling was used to assess statistically significant changes in trend. Among foreign-born recent entrants (<3 years since U.S. entry), we found a 39.5% decline (-1,013 cases) beginning in 2007 (P<0.05 compared to 2000–2007) and ending in 2011 (P<0.05 compared to 2011–2014). Among recent entrants from Mexico, 80.7% of the decline was attributable to a decrease in population, while the declines among recent entrants from the Philippines, India, Vietnam, and China were almost exclusively (95.5%–100%) the result of decreases in TB case rates. Among foreign-born non-recent entrants (≥3 years since U.S. entry), we found an 8.9% decline (-443 cases) that resulted entirely (100%) from a decrease in the TB case rate. Both recent and non-recent entrants contributed to the decline in TB cases; factors contributing to the decline among recent entrants varied by country of origin. Strategies that impact both recent and non-recent entrants (e.g., investment in overseas TB control) as well as those that focus on non-recent entrants (e.g., expanded targeted testing of high-risk subgroups among non-recent entrants) will be necessary to achieve further declines in TB morbidity among foreign-born persons.     

An evaluation of the actual incidence of tuberculosis in French Guiana using a capture-recapture model

In order to estimate the level of under-reporting and to improve estimates of the incidence of tuberculosis (TB) in the vicinity of Cayenne, French Guiana, we performed capture-recapture analysis from 1996 through 2003. We cross-linked data from the Institut Pasteur, the Département d'Information Médicale of Cayenne Hospital, and the Service de Lutte Anti-Tuberculeuse. The estimate of 381 TB cases obtained after matching those three sources was revised to 425 (95% confidence interval: 407, 453) using the capture-recapture model based on sample coverage. The corresponding average annual incidence was 63.1 TB cases per 100,000 population. The evaluated sensitivity of the compulsory notification system was 35.3%, indicating wide under-notification of TB in the vicinity of Cayenne. The estimated coverage reported by the three sources was fairly accurate (i.e. 85.9%), but not sufficient to evaluate the risk of transmission of TB in the Ile-de-Cayenne (Cayenne and its suburbs).     

Estimating the burden of tuberculosis among foreign-born persons acquired prior to entering the U.S., 2005-2009

Background

The true burden of reactivation of remote latent tuberculosis infection (reactivation TB) among foreign-born persons with tuberculosis (TB) within the United States is not known. Our study objectives were to estimate the proportion of foreign-born persons with TB due reactivation TB and to describe characteristics of foreign-born persons with reactivation TB.

Methods

We conducted a cross-sectional study of patients with an M. tuberculosis isolate genotyped by the U.S. National TB Genotyping Service, 2005–2009. TB cases were attributed to reactivation TB if they were not a member of a localized cluster of cases. Localized clusters were determined by a spatial scan statistic of cases with isolates with matching TB genotype results. Crude odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were used to assess relations between reactivation TB and select factors among foreign-born persons.

Main Results

Among the 36,860 cases with genotyping and surveillance data reported, 22,151 (60%) were foreign-born. Among foreign-born persons with TB, 18,540 (83.7%) were attributed to reactivation TB. Reactivation TB among foreign-born persons was associated with increasing age at arrival, incidence of TB in the country of origin, and decreased time in the U.S. at the time of TB diagnosis.

Conclusions

Four out of five TB cases among foreign-born persons can be attributed to reactivation TB and present the largest challenge to TB elimination in the U.S. TB control strategies among foreign-born persons should focus on finding and treating latent tuberculosis infection prior to or shortly after arrival to the United States and on reducing the burden of LTBI through improvements in global TB control.     

Multiple sclerosis; its frequency and distribution,with special reference to San Francisco

Epidemiologic surveys of multiple sclerosis were conducted in 1949 in San Francisco, Winnipeg, Boston, New Orleans, and Denver. Reports of cases for 1939 through 1948 were obtained from record offices, hospitals and clinics, and private physicians. The basis for the observations was the group of "probable" cases among residents. In San Francisco these probable cases in residents numbered 415; however, in only 146 of these was the onset between 1939 and 1948. Of the 143 patients who were white, 51 were male and 92 female. The average annual incidence based on these figures was 2.1 per 100,000-1.5 for males and 2.6 for females.Prevalence, based on probable cases in residents on January 1, 1949, was 29.7 cases per 100,000 population-21.2 for males and 38.1 for females. Mortality was 0.7 per 100,000 population-0.9 for females and 0.6 for males. In comparison of the findings for San Francisco with those of other cities, both the incidence and the severity of the disease appear to decrease from north to south.     

Predicting U.S. Tuberculosis Case Counts through 2020

In 2010, foreign-born persons accounted for 60% of all tuberculosis (TB) cases in the United States. Understanding which national groups make up the highest proportion of TB cases will assist TB control programs in concentrating limited resources where they can provide the greatest impact on preventing transmission of TB disease. The objective of our study was to predict through 2020 the numbers of U.S. TB cases among U.S.-born, foreign-born and foreign-born persons from selected countries of birth. TB case counts reported through the National Tuberculosis Surveillance System from 2000–2010 were log-transformed, and linear regression was performed to calculate predicted annual case counts and 95% prediction intervals for 2011–2020. Data were analyzed in 2011 before 2011 case counts were known. Decreases were predicted between 2010 observed and 2020 predicted counts for total TB cases (11,182 to 8,117 [95% prediction interval 7,262–9,073]) as well as TB cases among foreign-born persons from Mexico (1,541 to 1,420 [1,066–1,892]), the Philippines (740 to 724 [569–922]), India (578 to 553 [455–672]), Vietnam (532 to 429 [367–502]) and China (364 to 328 [249–433]). TB cases among persons who are U.S.-born and foreign-born were predicted to decline 47% (4,393 to 2,338 [2,113–2,586]) and 6% (6,720 to 6,343 [5,382–7,476]), respectively. Assuming rates of declines observed from 2000–2010 continue until 2020, a widening gap between the numbers of U.S.-born and foreign-born TB cases was predicted. TB case count predictions will help TB control programs identify needs for cultural competency, such as languages and interpreters needed for translating materials or engaging in appropriate community outreach.     

Pulmonary Tuberculosis Incidence and Risk Factors in Rural Areas of China: A Cohort Study

The incidence of tuberculosis (TB) and its risk factors in China remains unclear. This study examined TB incidence and relative risk factors in rural areas of China. Participants (n = 177,529) were recruited in Xiangtan County (in the central area of China) and in Danyang County (in the eastern area of China) in 2009 and a followed-up study was conducted for one year. The incidence density of pulmonary TB and smear-positive TB were 91.6 (95% CI: 78.7, 106.0) per 100,000 person-year and 36.7 (95% CI: 33.1, 52.4) per 100,000 person-year respectively in Xiangtan, and 47.3 (95% CI: 38.2, 57.5) per 100,000 person-year and 22.7 (95% CI: 16.5, 30.8) per 100,000 person-year in Danyang. The medical history of TB was associated with TB, with the relative risk (RR) of 7.00 (95% CI: 2.76, 17.18) in Xiangtan and that of 31.08 (95% CI: 13.22, 73.10) in Danyang. The association between TB and per capita living space over median was found in Xiangtan, with the RR of 1.86 (95% CI: 1.15, 3.01). No association was found between TB and the insurance status, the contact history with TB, the history of diabetes, smoking, or per capita annual income. The host genetic susceptibility, and social factors such as education and income could be considered in future studies.     

MULTIPLE SCLEROSIS—Its Frequency and Distribution,with Special Reference to San Francisco

Epidemiologic surveys of multiple sclerosis were conducted in 1949 in San Francisco, Winnipeg, Boston, New Orleans, and Denver. Reports of cases for 1939 through 1948 were obtained from record offices, hospitals and clinics, and private physicians. The basis for the observations was the group of “probable” cases among residents.In San Francisco these probable cases in residents numbered 415; however, in only 146 of these was the onset between 1939 and 1948. Of the 143 patients who were white, 51 were male and 92 female. The average annual incidence based on these figures was 2.1 per 100,000—1.5 for males and 2.6 for females.Prevalence, based on probable cases in residents on January 1, 1949, was 29.7 cases per 100,000 population—21.2 for males and 38.1 for females.Mortality was 0.7 per 100,000 population—0.9 for females and 0.6 for males.In comparison of the findings for San Francisco with those of other cities, both the incidence and the severity of the disease appear to decrease from north to south.     

Heterogeneous distribution of human cystic echinococcosis after a long-term control program in Neuquén, Patagonia Argentina

The present study is the first comprehensive analysis of human cystic echinococcosis (CE) epidemiological data carried out in the province of Neuquén, Patagonia Argentina, after 34 years of uninterrupted control program. A retrospective study of all the official records of confirmed human CE cases between 1995 and 2004 was carried out. A total of 1107 cases were reported. The overall mean annual incidence (MAI) was 24.4 per 100,000 inhabitants for the total population and 9.7/100,000 in the 0-14 year group. Distribution of cases by age and sex as well as frequency of cyst locations was analysed. Children accounted for 13.3% of total cases, indicating active transmission of the disease. Territorial distribution of cases was highly heterogeneous: MAI per 100,000 ranged from 7.9 in the Metropolitan Sanitary Area to 78.4 in the western rural areas. Higher values were recorded in small communities as Pilo Lil (800/100,000). MAI showed a significant decrease from 1995 to 1999 (43.9-18.8) but remains stable from 2000 to 2004 (15.9-15.5). These results suggest that standard control measures, despite long-term implementation, are not able to produce a sustained improvement of the epidemiological status of the disease. Further studies about local transmission cycles, definite and intermediate hosts present, Echinococcus granulosus strains or cultural behaviours in small communities are required in order to adequate the control actions in Neuquén.     

Burden of new and recurrent tuberculosis in a major South African city stratified by age and HIV-status

Aim

To describe the burden of tuberculosis (TB) in Cape Town by calculating TB incidence rates stratified by age and HIV-status, assessing the contribution of retreatment disease and estimating the cumulative lifetime TB risk in HIV-negative individuals.

Methods

Details of TB cases were abstracted from the 2009 electronic TB register. Population denominators were estimated from census data and actuarial estimates of HIV prevalence, allowing calculation of age-specific and HIV-stratified TB notification rates.

Results

The 2009 mid-year population was 3,443,010 (3,241,508 HIV-negative and 201,502 HIV-positive individuals). There were 29,478 newly notified TB cases of which 56% were laboratory confirmed. HIV status was recorded for 87% of cases and of those with known HIV-status 49% were HIV-negative and 51% were positive. Discrete peaks in the incidence of non-HIV-associated TB occurred at three ages: 511/100,000 at 0–4 years of age, 553/100,000 at 20–24 years and 628/100,000 at 45–49 years with 1.5%, 19% and 45% being due to retreatment TB, respectively. Only 15.5% of recurrent cases had a history of TB treatment failure or default. The cumulative lifetime risks in the HIV-negative population of all new TB episodes and new smear-positive TB episodes were 24% and 12%, respectively; the lifetime risk of retreatment disease was 9%. The HIV-positive notification rate was 6,567/100,000 (HIV-associated TB rate ratio = 17). Although retreatment cases comprised 30% of the HIV-associated TB burden, 88% of these patients had no history of prior treatment failure or default.

Conclusions

The annual burden of TB in this city is huge. TB in the HIV-negative population contributed almost half of the overall disease burden and cumulative lifetime risks were similar to those reported in the pre-chemotherapy era. Retreatment TB contributed significantly to both HIV-associated and non-HIV-associated TB but infrequently followed prior inadequate treatment. This likely reflects ongoing TB transmission to both HIV-negative and positive individuals.     

The resurgence of tuberculosis in Russia

This paper documents and attempts to explain the epidemic spread of tuberculosis (TB) in Russia during the 1990s. After several decades of decline, the notification rate of all new TB cases among permanent residents increased by 7.5% per year from 1991-1999 and the death rate by 11% per year. Growth was quickest from 1993-1995 but increased again after the economic crisis of August 1998. Approximately 120 000 new cases and 30 000 deaths were reported in 1999. Case detection and cure rates have fallen in Russia since the mid-1980s; the fall has been accompanied by a higher frequency of severe disease among cases, and higher death and case fatality rates. With a mathematical model describing the deterioration in case finding and cure rates we could replicate the average rate of increase in incidence 1991-1999 but not the precise timing of the observed changes. Other factors that probably helped to shape the observed rise in caseload include enhanced transmission due to the mixing of prison and civilian populations, an increase in susceptibility to disease, and changes in the proportion of cases detected by surveillance. Although our explanation for the resurgence of TB is incomplete, we have identified a set of measures that can be implemented now to cut transmission, incidence and deaths.     

Risk of HIV infection from blood transfusion in Montreal

OBJECTIVES: To determine the incidence (including associated donor characteristics and time trends) of HIV infection among repeat blood donors and to estimate the risk of HIV transmission from blood transfusion in Montreal and in Canada as a whole. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort analysis. SETTING: Montreal Centre Blood Transfusion Service. PARTICIPANTS: People who donated blood at least twice after Nov. 1, 1985, and at least once from Apr. 1, 1989, to Mar. 31, 1993. INTERVENTION: Blood was screened for HIV by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and results were confirmed by Western blot analysis. OUTCOME MEASURES: Incidence density (the incidence rate per person-time) of HIV infection among repeat blood donors by sex, age group and region of residence, and incidence density and risk among first-time donors and for Canada as whole. RESULTS: There were 200,196 eligible donors and 432,631 person-years (PY) of observation. From 1989 to 1993, there were 18 HIV seroconversions among repeat donors. The crude incidence density was 3.3 per 100,000 PY (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.8 to 5.4 per 100,000 PY); it was 4.9 per 100,000 PY among men and 0.61 per 100,000 PY among women. Age-specific incidence per 100,000 PY was 2.5 among those 12-29 years of age, 5.1 among those 30-49, 2.9 among those 40-49, and 1.4 among those 50 and older. Based on an estimated mean "window period" (from when a donor''s blood is capable of transmitting HIV until detectable antibody appears) of 25 days, the current risk of HIV infection from repeat donors in the window period is estimated at 1 in 440,000. Inclusion of blood units from first-time donors produces an overall risk of 1 in 390,000 (95% CI 1 in 250,000 to 655,000). The estimated risk per blood unit in Canada as a whole is 1 in 913000 (95% CI 1 in 507,000 to 2,050,000). CONCLUSIONS: This "sentinel" population of repeat blood donors is subject to important trends in HIV spread. Therefore, estimating the incidence density of HIV infection in repeat donors provides insight into the epidemiologic characteristics of HIV infection at minimal expense. As a result of measures to improve blood safety, including HIV testing, the incidence of HIV infection among blood donors in Canada is low and the risk of HIV transmission from transfusion is extremely small, although not zero.     

Incidence and transmission patterns of tuberculosis among indigenous populations in Brazil

Approximately 10% of the Brazilian indigenous population lives in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul (MS), where a large number of new cases of tuberculosis (TB) are reported. This study was conducted to assess TB occurrence, transmission and the utility of TB diagnosis based on the Ogawa-Kudoh (O-K) culture method in this remote population. The incidence of TB was estimated by a retrospective review of the surveillance data maintained by the Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System for the study region. The TB transmission pattern among indigenous people was assessed by genotyping Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates using the IS 6110 restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) technique. Of the 3,093 cases identified from 1999-2001, 610 (~20%) were indigenous patients (average incidence: 377/100,000/year). The use of the O-K culture method increased the number of diagnosed cases by 34.1%. Of the genotyped isolates from 52 indigenous patients, 33 (63.5%) belonged to cluster RFLP patterns, indicating recently transmitted TB. These results demonstrate high, on-going TB transmission rates among the indigenous people of MS and indicate that new efforts are needed to disrupt these current transmissions.     

Prevalence of multiple sclerosis in Saskatoon.

In an epidemiologic survey based on a search of all available medical records for 1955 to 1980 at the city''s three general hospitals the prevalence in Saskatoon of probable multiple sclerosis was found to be 111/100,000 and that of combined probable and possible multiple sclerosis 134/100,000 on Jan. 1, 1977. The average annual incidence over the three decades was 4.8/100,000. These prevalence and incidence rates were two to three time greater than those reported for other Canadian cities. Of the 150 individuals with probable multiple sclerosis 87 were living in Saskatoon at the time of onset of the disease; thus, the prevalence of the disease among residents was 64/100,000. The prevalence was 77/100,000 among Saskatchewan-born residents, including those born in Saskatoon, and 48/100,000 among immigrants from other provinces and outside Canada.     

High Incidence of Tuberculosis,Low Sensitivity of Current Diagnostic Scheme and Prolonged Culture Positivity in Four Colombian Prisons. A Cohort Study

Objective

To determine the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) in inmates, factors associated with TB, and the time to sputum smear and culture conversion during TB treatment.

Methods

Prospective cohort study. All prisoners with respiratory symptoms (RS) of any duration were evaluated. After participants signed consent forms, we collected three spontaneous sputum samples on consecutive days. We performed auramine-rhodamine staining, culturing with the thin-layer agar method, Löwestein-Jensen medium and MGIT, susceptibility testing for first-line drugs; and HIV testing. TB cases were followed, and the times to smear and culture conversion to negative were evaluated.

Results

Of 9,507 prisoners held in four prisons between April/30/2010 and April/30/2012, among them 4,463 were screened, 1,305 were evaluated for TB because of the lower RS of any duration, and 72 were diagnosed with TB. The annual incidence was 505 cases/100,000 prisoners. Among TB cases, the median age was 30 years, 25% had <15 days of cough, 12.5% had a history of prior TB, and 40.3% had prior contact with a TB case. TB-HIV coinfection was diagnosed in three cases. History of prior TB, contact with a TB case, and being underweight were risk factors associated with TB. Overweight was a protective factor. Almost a quarter of TB cases were detected only by culture; three cases were isoniazid resistant, and two resistant to streptomycin. The median times to culture conversion was 59 days, and smear conversion was 33.

Conclusions

The TB incidence in prisons is 20 times higher than in the general Colombian population. TB should be considered in inmates with lower RS of any duration. Our data demonstrate that patients receiving adequate anti-TB treatment remain infectious for prolonged periods. These findings suggest that current recommendations regarding isolation of prisoners with TB should be reconsidered, and suggest the need for mycobacterial cultures during follow-up.     

Spatiotemporal Clustering of Mycobacterium tuberculosis Complex Genotypes in Florida: Genetic Diversity Segregated by Country of Birth

BackgroundTuberculosis (TB) is caused by members of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC). Although the MTBC is highly clonal, between-strain genetic diversity has been observed. In low TB incidence settings, immigration may facilitate the importation of MTBC strains with a potential to complicate TB control efforts.MethodsWe investigated the genetic diversity and spatiotemporal clustering of 2,510 MTBC strains isolated in Florida, United States, between 2009 and 2013 and genotyped using spoligotyping and 24-locus MIRU-VNTR. We mapped the genetic diversity to the centroid of patient residential zip codes using a geographic information system (GIS). We assessed transmission dynamics and the influence of immigration on genotype clustering using space-time permutation models adjusted for foreign-born population density and county-level HIV risk and multinomial models stratified by country of birth and timing of immigration in SaTScan.Conclusions/SignificanceAlmost five percent of TB cases reported in Florida during 2009–2013 were potentially due to recent transmission. Improvements to TB screening practices among the prison population and recent immigrants are likely to impact TB control. Due to the monomorphic nature of available markers, whole genome sequencing is needed to conclusively delineate recent transmission events between U.S. and foreign-born persons.     

Acute upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage in west of Scotland: case ascertainment study.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the incidence and case fatality of acute upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage in the west of Scotland and to identify associated factors. DESIGN: Case ascertainment study. SETTING: All hospitals treating adults with acute upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage in the west of Scotland. SUBJECTS: 1882 patients aged 15 years and over treated in hospitals for acute upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage during a six month period. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incidence of acute upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage per 100,000 population per year, and case fatality. RESULTS: The annual incidence was 172 per 100,000 people aged 15 and over. The annual population mortality was 14.0 per 100,000. Both were higher among elderly people, men, and patients resident in areas of greater social deprivation. Overall case fatality was 8.2%. This was higher among those who bled as inpatients after admission for other reasons (42%) and those admitted as tertiary referrals (16%). Factors associated with increased case fatality were age, uraemia, pre-existing malignancy, hepatic failure, hypotension, cardiac failure, and frank haematemesis or a history of syncope at presentation. Social deprivation, sex, and anaemia were not associated with increased case fatality after adjustment for other factors. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of acute upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage was 67% greater than the highest previously reported incidence in the United Kingdom, which may be partially attributable to the greater social deprivation in the west of Scotland and may be related to the increased prevalence of Helicobacter pylori. Fatality after acute upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage was associated with age, comorbidity, hypotension, and raised blood urea concentrations on admission. Although deprivation was associated with increased incidence, it was not related to the risk of fatality.     

The incidence of optic neuritis in Split-Dalmatia county, Croatia

The aim of the study was to determine the incidence of monosymptomatic optic neuritis (MON) in residents of Split-Dalmatia County, Croatia. The 127 cases (83 female, aged 26.2+/-9.9 and 44 male aged 26.9+/-11.2) with MON presented between January 1985 and December 2001 were analyzed from hospital data. The annual incidence was 1.6 per 100,000 (95% CI, 0-3). The incidence among females was 2.2 (95% CI, 0-4.6) cases / 100,000 per year and 1.1 (95% CI, 0-3) among males. The difference in incidence rates for women vs. men was not significant (chi2=0.41; p=0.52), although it is more likely that a true difference exists. The peak incidence in both sexes observed in the group 20-29 years of age was 4.2 (95% CI, 0-10). The highest incidence of MON was found in spring (46 cases). In summary, the incidence of MON in Split-Dalmatia County during the 17 years period is relatively low.     

Alimentary infections during war conditions: Mostar and Tomislavgrad, Bosnia and Herzegovina, 1992-1995

The aim of this study was to assess the outcome of sanitary and epidemiologic measures undertaken in relation to alimentary infections in the military corps of the Croatian Defense Council (Hrvatsko vje?e obrane) and civilian population in Mostar and Tomislavgrad regions during the 1992-1995 War in Bosnia and Herzegovina. A total of 25 (4.8%) of soldiers and 7 (7.1%) of non-military personnel were not being granted medical clearance to be employed in the food provision services. We recorded a total of 68 alimentary infections cases in military personnel (with an incidence of 536.2 per 100,000 persons), and 436 in civilian population (573.9 per 100,000 person), without significant difference between them (p=0.647). We did not record any alimentary infection outbreak in the military personnel, while two smaller epidemics of the abdominal typhus were recorded among civilian populations, but without lethal outcomes. The results of this study suggest that even the most basic adherence to the principle of standard sanitary and epidemiologic preventive measures may substantially reduce the probability of alimentary infections outbreaks, even in the highly disruptive, warfare environment.