Influence of climate change and postdelisting management on long‐term population viability of the conservation‐reliant Kirtland's Warbler

Rapid global climate change is resulting in novel abiotic and biotic conditions and interactions. Identifying management strategies that maximize probability of long‐term persistence requires an understanding of the vulnerability of species to environmental changes. We sought to quantify the vulnerability of Kirtland's Warbler (Setophaga kirtlandii), a rare Neotropical migratory songbird that breeds almost exclusively in the Lower Peninsula of Michigan and winters in the Bahamian Archipelago, to projected environmental changes on the breeding and wintering grounds. We developed a population‐level simulation model that incorporates the influence of annual environmental conditions on the breeding and wintering grounds, and parameterized the model using empirical relationships. We simulated independent and additive effects of reduced breeding grounds habitat quantity and quality, and wintering grounds habitat quality, on population viability. Our results indicated the Kirtland's Warbler population is stable under current environmental and management conditions. Reduced breeding grounds habitat quantity resulted in reductions of the stable population size, but did not cause extinction under the scenarios we examined. In contrast, projected large reductions in wintering grounds precipitation caused the population to decline, with risk of extinction magnified when breeding habitat quantity or quality also decreased. Our study indicates that probability of long‐term persistence for Kirtland's Warbler will depend on climate change impacts to wintering grounds habitat quality and contributes to the growing literature documenting the importance of considering the full annual cycle for understanding population dynamics of migratory species.     

Reproductive trade‐offs in a long‐lived bird species: condition‐dependent reproductive allocation maintains female survival and offspring quality

Life history theory is an essential framework to understand the evolution of reproductive allocation. It predicts that individuals of long‐lived species favour their own survival over current reproduction, leading individuals to refrain from reproducing under harsh conditions. Here we test this prediction in a long‐lived bird species, the Siberian jay Perisoreus infaustus. Long‐term data revealed that females rarely refrain from breeding, but lay smaller clutches in unfavourable years. Neither offspring body size, female survival nor offspring survival until the next year was influenced by annual condition, habitat quality, clutch size, female age or female phenotype. Given that many nests failed due to nest predation, the variance in the number of fledglings was higher than the variance in the number of eggs and female survival. An experimental challenge with a novel pathogen before egg laying largely replicated these patterns in two consecutive years with contrasting conditions. Challenged females refrained from breeding only in the unfavourable year, but no downstream effects were found in either year. Taken together, these findings demonstrate that condition‐dependent reproductive allocation may serve to maintain female survival and offspring quality, supporting patterns found in long‐lived mammals. We discuss avenues to develop life history theory concerning strategies to offset reproductive costs.     

Grazing pressure affects offspring sex ratio in a socially monogamous passerine on the Tibet Plateau

Livestock grazing can affect habitat structure and availability of arthropod prey for grassland birds, and ultimately determines habitat quality. The habitat quality may affect breeding strategies (e.g. sex ratio adjustment) in bird species, but studies investigating grazing intensity on offspring sex ratio are still rare. In this paper, we examined the effect of grazing intensity by livestock on the secondary sex ratio of an alpine‐steppe passerine, the isabelline wheatear Oenanthe isabellina, on the Tibet Plateau. Offspring sex ratio of isabelline wheatears significantly correlated with a quadratic term – (grazing intensity)². The wheatears nesting in areas grazed at low intensity by mixed livestocks produced significantly more sons than those in ungrazed area (0.41 vs 0.58, Z = –2.836, p = 0.005), while brood sex ratios from other treatments (ungrazing vs intensive grazing and low‐intensity grazing vs intensive grazing) did not differ significantly. Variation in offspring sex ratio was not related to other factors such as maternal condition, paternal condition and other two‐way interactions. These results suggest that breeding birds of grasslands are sensitive to variation in habitat conditions, and provide additional evidence that grazing intensity affects avian reproduction in cryptic ways that are rarely studied. Our findings suggest that flexible management including timely rotational grazing is needed to optimize bird species reproduction and maintain ecosystem health.     

Components of breeding performance in two competing species: habitat heterogeneity, individual quality and density-dependence

Density‐dependent breeding performance due to habitat heterogeneity has been shown to regulate populations of territorial species, since the progressive occupation of low quality territories as breeding density increases may cause a decline in the mean per capita fecundity of a population while variation in fecundity increases. Although the preemptive use of sites may relegate low quality individuals to sites of progressively lower suitability, few studies on density dependence have tried to separate the effects of territory quality from individual quality, and none have simultaneously considered the effects of heterospecific competitors. Using two long‐term monitored populations, we assessed the relative contribution of habitat heterogeneity and bird quality (in terms of age) on the productivity of sympatric golden Aquila chrysaetos and Bonelli's eagles Hieraaetus fasciatus under different scenarios of intra‐ and inter‐specific competition. Productivity (number of offspring fledged) varied among territories and average annual productivity was negatively related to its variability in both species and populations, thus giving some support to the habitat heterogeneity hypothesis. However, the effect of habitat heterogeneity on productivity became non‐significant when parental age and local density estimators were included in multivariate analyses. Therefore, temporal changes in bird quality (age) combined with intra‐ and interspecific competition explained variability in territory productivity rather than habitat heterogeneity among territories per se. The recruitment of subadult breeders, a surrogate of mortality in eagles, strongly varied among territories. Habitat heterogeneity in productivity may thus arise not because sites differ in suitability for reproduction but because of differences in factors affecting survival. Territories associated with high mortality risks have a higher probability of being occupied by young birds, whose lower quality, interacting with the density competitors, leads to a reduction of productivity. Site‐dependent variability in adult survival and interspecific competition may be extensive, but so far largely overlooked, factors to be seriously considered for the site‐dependent population regulation framework.     

Short‐term changes in body condition in relation to habitat and rainfall abundance in American redstarts Setophaga ruticilla during the non‐breeding season

In migratory birds, environmental conditions during the stationary period of the non‐breeding season are crucial to consider because they ultimately affect the fitness of individuals by influencing their subsequent migration, breeding success and survival. Although a few studies have investigated the influence of non‐breeding habitat on the capacity of individuals to cope with long‐term seasonal rainfall fluctuations, it remains unknown how habitat quality and variations in rainfall abundance–at a monthly scale–interact to affect non‐breeding condition of migrating birds. In this study, we examined the influence of monthly changes in rainfall abundance on body condition of non‐breeding female redstarts Setophaga ruticilla living either in a high quality habitat (mangrove) or in a low quality habitat (scrub). Body condition of both mangrove and scrub redstarts showed important variations over the study period, demonstrating for the first time that body condition of non‐breeding female redstarts can change rapidly in response to short‐term fluctuations in rainfall. Importantly, we found that female redstarts living in mangrove were usually in better condition during periods of low rainfall compared to females living in scrub. However, body condition did not differ between mangrove females and scrub females during an episode of frequent, heavy precipitation. Importantly, our study also demonstrated that the duration of a perturbation is an important determinant of body condition in redstarts since a prolonged drought resulted in similar low body condition for birds from both habitats. Age was not correlated with body condition whatever the habitat and the rainfall conditions. Our results demonstrate that high quality habitat can temporarily reduce the deleterious effect of a short‐term drought on body condition, but also, that a habitat of low quality does not constrain individuals when climatic conditions are optimal.     

Post‐fragmentation population structure in a cooperative breeding Afrotropical cloud forest bird: emergence of a source‐sink population network

The impact of demographic parameters on the genetic population structure and viability of organisms is a long‐standing issue in the study of fragmented populations. Demographic and genetic tools are now readily available to estimate census and effective population sizes and migration and gene flow rates with increasing precision. Here we analysed the demography and genetic population structure over a recent 15‐year time span in five remnant populations of Cabanis's greenbul (Phyllastrephus cabanisi), a cooperative breeding bird in a severely fragmented cloud forest habitat. Contrary to our expectation, genetic admixture and effective population sizes slightly increased, rather than decreased between our two sampling periods. In spite of small effective population sizes in tiny forest remnants, none of the populations showed evidence of a recent population bottleneck. Approximate Bayesian modelling, however, suggested that differentiation of the populations coincided at least partially with an episode of habitat fragmentation. The ratio of meta‐N_e to meta‐N_c was relatively low for birds, which is expected for cooperative breeding species, while N_e/N_c ratios strongly varied among local populations. While the overall trend of increasing population sizes and genetic admixture may suggest that Cabanis's greenbuls increasingly cope with fragmentation, the time period over which these trends were documented is rather short relative to the average longevity of tropical species. Furthermore, the critically low N_c in the small forest remnants keep the species prone to demographic and environmental stochasticity, and it remains open if, and to what extent, its cooperative breeding behaviour helps to buffer such effects.     

Territory configuration moderates the frequency of extra‐group mating in superb fairy‐wrens

The frequency of extra‐pair paternity (EPP) in socially monogamous birds varies substantially between and within species, but ecological drivers of this variation remain poorly understood. Habitat configuration could influence EPP by moderating access to extra‐pair mates, because species occupying territories in a clustered ‘honeycomb’ configuration have a larger pool of potential extra‐group mates in their immediate neighbourhood than those living in linearly arranged territories (e.g. along narrow strips of riparian or fragmented habitat). We exploited variation in the spatial arrangement of territories due to anthropogenic modification of habitat of the cooperatively breeding superb fairy‐wren Malurus cyaneus to test whether habitat configuration influenced the frequency of EPP. In this species, most paternity is obtained by males outside the social group [extra‐group paternity (EGP)]. We found that the frequency of EGP among groups living in linear strips of roadside vegetation (41% of 44 offspring) was lower than it was for groups living in clustered territories within continuous habitat (59% of 70 offspring). Differences in group size and pair relatedness did not explain differences in EGP associated with territory configuration, although the frequency of EGP was negatively correlated with pair relatedness. Our finding suggests that territory configuration can influence rates of EGP and that anthropogenic habitat fragmentation has the potential to limit access to extra‐pair mates, affecting mating systems and ultimately fitness.     

Does migration promote or restrict circumpolar breeding ranges of arctic birds?

Aim Migration has been suggested to promote large breeding ranges among birds because of the greater mobility of migratory compared with non‐migratory species, but migration has also been suggested to restrict breeding ranges because of evolutionary constraints imposed by the genetically based migration control programme. We aim to investigate the association between migration and the breeding ranges of both land birds and pelagic birds breeding in the Arctic region. Location The Arctic region. Methods Information on breeding and wintering ranges and migratory status of bird species breeding in the arctic tundra biome was compiled from the literature. The association between breeding range, migration distance and primary winter habitat was tested using multivariate generalized linear models and pair‐wise Mann–Whitney U‐tests. Phylogenetic effects were tested for using Mantel’s permutation tests. Results We found different relationships depending on the species’ major winter habitat. Among birds that are pelagic during winter, long‐distance migrants have the largest breeding ranges, while among terrestrial birds, residents and short‐distance migrants have the largest breeding ranges. Breeding ranges of coastal birds of all migratory distance classes are comparatively restricted. Main conclusions As a new explanation for this pattern we suggest that the possibility of colonizing large winter ranges is a key factor for the subsequent expansion of breeding ranges in arctic bird communities and possibly also in bird communities of other regions of the world. Because of the reversal in the relative extent of continents and oceans between the hemispheres, longitudinally wide winter ranges are more likely for long‐distance than short‐distance migrants among pelagic birds, while the reverse holds true for birds that use terrestrial winter habitats. For coastal birds both continents and oceans form barriers restricting colonization of extensive winter quarters and consequently also of extensive breeding ranges, regardless of the distance to the winter quarters.     

Changes in habitat selection patterns of the gray partridge Perdix perdix in relation to agricultural landscape dynamics over the past two decades

相似文献   

Colonization and extinction dynamics of a declining migratory bird are influenced by climate and habitat degradation

Uncovering the mechanisms involved in the decline of long‐distance migrants remains one of the most pressing issues in European conservation. Since the 1980s, the British breeding population of Garden Warbler Sylvia borin has declined by more than 25%. Here we use data from repeated bird surveys of woodland sites in the 1980s and in 2003–2004 to show that, although the overall population declined between the two periods, the probability of occupancy for this species increased at high latitudes and decreased at low latitudes. Range shifts such as this arise from a change in the ratio of colonizations to extinctions at the range margins, and we therefore related colonization and local extinction at the patch level to concurrent changes in temperature and habitat. The probability of patch colonization by this species was significantly lower where the percentage cover of vegetation in the understorey had declined, reducing habitat quality for this species. The probability of local extinction was significantly correlated with increasing mean May temperature, which may reflect a change in phenology, making breeding conditions less suitable. Changed regimes of grazing and woodland management could be used to increase habitat suitability and thereby increase colonization probability at the local scale, which may in turn increase the probability of patch occupancy despite future climatic unsuitability.     

Contrasting effects of climate on juvenile body size in a Southern Hemisphere passerine bird

Despite extensive research on the topic, it has been difficult to reach general conclusions as to the effects of climate change on morphology in wild animals: in particular, the effects of warming temperatures have been associated with increases, decreases or stasis in body size in different populations. Here, we use a fine‐scale analysis of associations between weather and offspring body size in a long‐term study of a wild passerine bird, the cooperatively breeding superb fairy‐wren, in south‐eastern Australia to show that such variation in the direction of associations occurs even within a population. Over the past 26 years, our study population has experienced increased temperatures, increased frequency of heatwaves and reduced rainfall – but the mean body mass of chicks has not changed. Despite the apparent stasis, mass was associated with weather across the previous year, but in multiple counteracting ways. Firstly, (i) chick mass was negatively associated with extremely recent heatwaves, but there also positive associations with (ii) higher maximum temperatures and (iii) higher rainfall, both occurring in a period prior to and during the nesting period, and finally (iv) a longer‐term negative association with higher maximum temperatures following the previous breeding season. Our results illustrate how a morphological trait may be affected by both short‐ and long‐term effects of the same weather variable at multiple times of the year and that these effects may act in different directions. We also show that climate within the relevant time windows may not be changing in the same way, such that overall long‐term temporal trends in body size may be minimal. Such complexity means that analytical approaches that search for a single ‘best’ window for one particular weather variable may miss other relevant information, and is also likely to make analyses of phenotypic plasticity and prediction of longer‐term population dynamics difficult.     

Annual variation in long‐distance dispersal driven by breeding and non‐breeding season climatic conditions in a migratory bird

Long‐distance dispersal is a fundamental process in ecology and evolution but the factors that influence these movements remain poorly understood in most species. We used stable hydrogen isotopes to quantify the rate and direction of long‐distance immigration in a breeding population of American redstarts and to test whether the settlement decisions that result in long‐distance dispersal are driven by habitat saturation or by the phenology of breeding‐season resources. Our results provide evidence that both natal dispersal and breeding dispersal were influenced by the timing of breeding‐season phenology, with both age classes more likely to disperse north in years when the onset of breeding‐season phenology occurs earlier than normal. Yearlings were also more likely to disperse north following winters with poor habitat quality on their non‐breeding grounds, demonstrating that carry‐over effects from the non‐breeding season influence natal dispersal in this species. Collectively, these results are consistent with the hypothesis that American redstarts use the phenology of breeding season resources as a cue to select breeding sites. Our results suggest that long‐distance dispersal may allow individuals to rapidly respond to advancing phenology caused by global climate change, though their ability to do so may be constrained by long‐term decline in habitat quality predicted for their tropical non‐breeding grounds.     

Cooperative breeding in birds: a comparative test of the life history hypothesis

In approximately 3.2% of bird species individuals regularly forgo the opportunity to breed independently and instead breed cooperatively with other conspecifics, either as non-reproductive ''helpers'' or as co-breeders. The traditional explanation for cooperative breeding is that the opportunities for breeding independently are limited owing to peculiar features of the species'' breeding ecology. However, it has proved remarkably difficult to find any common ecological correlates of cooperative breeding in birds. This difficulty has led to the ''life history hypothesis'', which suggests that the common feature of cooperatively breeding birds is their great longevity, rather than any particular feature of their breeding ecology. Here, we use a comparative method to test the life history hypothesis by looking for correlations between life history variation and variation in the frequency of cooperative breeding. First, we find that cooperative breeding in birds is not randomly distributed, but concentrated in certain families, thus supporting the idea that there may be a common basis to cooperative breeding in birds. Second, increases in the level of cooperative breeding are strongly associated with decreases in annual adult mortality and modal clutch size. Third, the proportion of cooperatively breeding species per family is correlated with a low family-typical value of annual mortality, suggesting that low mortality predisposes cooperative breeding rather than vice versa. Finally, the low rate of mortality typically found in cooperatively breeding species is associated with increasing sedentariness, lower latitudes, and decreased environmental fluctuation. We suggest that low annual mortality is the key factor that predisposes avian lineages to cooperative breeding, then ecological changes, such as becoming sedentary, further slow population turnover and reduce opportunities for independent breeding. As the traditional explanation suggests, the breeding habitat of cooperatively breeding species is saturated, but this saturation is not owing to any peculiar feature of the breeding ecology of cooperative breeders. Rather, the saturation arises because the local population turnover in these species is unusually slow, as predicted by the life history hypothesis.     

Using fledged brood counts of hedgerow birds to assess the effect of summer agri-environment scheme options

A key aim of many European agri-environment schemes (AES) is to improve biodiversity on farmland. In recent years, several countries have been looking at long term trends in the spring adult population size of a target group of farmland birds as an indicator of this. The overall trend in these indicators is however not upwards. While this might suggest we need to look at the design and deployment of habitat management options within schemes, there is an increasing view that we also need to refine and improve our indicators, or the way we monitor them.Relating spring adult bird population size to AES options is problematic not least because of the time lag between the deployment of those designed to enhance bird breeding success in summer, and the spring surveys the following year. At the other end of the scale detailed studies of breeding success in farmland birds have practical/cost restraints. We argue that to understand the impact on farmland birds of particular summer options within AESs we need to be able to estimate the breeding success of local bird populations quickly and cheaply. This would enable us to relate particular AES options to the breeding performance of the birds actually using them.Complementing a previous study of woodland birds, we assess the likelihood of encountering fledged broods of hedgerow nesting bird species during transect surveys without finding nests, and then apply a simple mark-recapture analysis technique to provide an index of breeding success for those species. Following spring adult assessments, counts of fledged broods were undertaken four times a week during April, May, June and July, in four 2.5 km hedgerow transects, at four sites in southern England in 2010. Mean daily detection probabilities of fledged broods of 16 common hedgerow birds were calculated from these counts using the software Presence. For 15 out of these 16 species these detection probabilities were sufficiently high for a programme of fledged brood surveys, involving just two or three visits per week from mid-May to mid-July, to provide a useful estimate of breeding success.The survey technique and associated analyses make certain assumptions when providing estimates of breeding success and these are discussed. Little is known about initial dispersal in passerine fledglings and a study in hedgerows may be useful here. However our pilot study suggests that the method could have application as a relatively easily derived productivity index for hedgerow birds, and hence an additional method available to study the impact of certain AES options on indicator species, or for research studies.     

Differences in shifts of wintering and breeding ranges lead to changing migration distances in European birds

Studies on the impact of climate change on the distributions of bird species in Europe have largely focused on one season at a time, especially concerning summer breeding ranges. We investigated whether migratory bird species show consistent range shifts over the past 55 yr in both breeding and wintering areas or if these shifts are independent. We then analyzed whether patterns in changing migration distances of Finnish breeding birds could be explained by habitat use, phylogeny or body size. We used long‐term datasets from the Finnish ringing centre to analyze the mean wintering latitudes of 29 species of Finnish breeding birds, then used breeding distribution data to make predictions as to whether certain species were migrating shorter or longer distances based on the comparative shifts in the wintering and breeding grounds. Our data reveal species‐specific differences in changing migration distances. We show that for many species, long‐term shifts in wintering ranges have not followed the same patterns as those in the breeding range, leading to differences in migration distances over time. We conclude that species are not adjusting predictably to climate change in their wintering grounds, leading to changing migration distances in some, but not all, species breeding in Finland. This research fills an important gap in the current climate change biology literature, focusing on individuals’ entire life histories and revealing new complexities in range shift patterns.     

Is Cooperative Breeding Associated With Bigger Brains? A Comparative Test in the Corvida (Passeriformes)

The cognitive demands of a social existence favour the evolution of relatively large brains and neocortices in primates. Comparable tests of sociality and brain size/structure in birds have not been performed, despite marked similarities in the social systems of birds and mammals. Here, we test whether one aspect of avian sociality, cooperative breeding, is associated with an increase in brain size across 155 species of the passeriform parvorder Corvida. Using conventional and phylogeny‐corrected statistics, we examined the correlated evolution of relative brain size and: the presence/absence of cooperative breeding, percentage of nests that are cooperative and cooperatively breeding group size. Most of the comparisons yielded non‐significant results, which suggests that cooperative breeding is not related to relative brain size in this parvorder. There are a number of potential explanations for our findings. First, changes in brain region size may be correlated with cooperative breeding without affecting overall brain size. Secondly, cooperatively breeding birds might not possess more complex social behaviour than non‐cooperatively breeding birds. Thirdly, relatively large brains might be ancestral in this parvorder. This may predispose them to evolve the range of complex behaviours found in this group, including extreme sociality. Finally, ecological and/or developmental factors might play a more significant role than social behaviour in the diversification of avian brain size. Assessing these alternatives requires more information on the neural and cognitive differences between bird species.     

The role of migration for spatial turnover of arctic bird species in a circumpolar perspective

Several different factors may determine where species range limits are located within regions of otherwise continuously available habitat and suitable climate. Within the Arctic tundra biome many bird species are migratory and their breeding distributions are affected by migration routes that are in turn limited by factors such as suitable winter habitat, migratory stopover sites, geographical barriers and historical routes of colonization. We identified longitudinal zones in the circumpolar Arctic of pronounced changes in the avian species composition (high species spatial turnover; ‘species divides’). We tested for the association between migratory status and the geographical location and numbers of such species divides for species with non‐breeding habitats mainly within terrestrial, pelagic and coastal ecosystems. Our results demonstrate that migration is of profound importance for both the number and locations of species divides in the Arctic. Long‐distance migration is associated with a large number of divides among terrestrial and coastal arctic birds but with a reduced number of divides among pelagic birds. We suggest that long‐distance migration permits pelagic but not terrestrial and coastal birds to colonize large winter ranges, which in turn causes expansion of breeding ranges, with more homogenous communities and reduction of species divides as consequences, among the long‐distance migrants of pelagic but not of terrestrial and coastal birds. Furthermore, the divides among long‐distance migrants are situated in two main regions, the Beringia and Greenland zones, while divides among short‐distance migrants are more evenly spaced throughout the circumpolar Arctic. The Beringia and Greenland divides result largely from inter‐continental colonization of new breeding ranges but retainment of original winter quarters in a process of evolution through extension of migration routes, leading to aggregated divides in the meeting zones of major global flyways.     

Does wintering north or south of the Sahara correlate with timing and breeding performance in black‐tailed godwits?

Migrating long distances requires time and energy, and may interact with an individual's performance during breeding. These seasonal interactions in migratory animals are best described in populations with disjunct nonbreeding distributions. The black‐tailed godwit (Limosa limosa limosa), which breeds in agricultural grasslands in Western Europe, has such a disjunct nonbreeding distribution: The majority spend the nonbreeding season in West Africa, while a growing number winters north of the Sahara on the Iberian Peninsula. To test whether crossing the Sahara has an effect on breeding season phenology and reproductive parameters, we examined differences in the timing of arrival, breeding habitat quality, lay date, egg volume, and daily nest survival among godwits (154 females and 157 males), individually marked in a breeding area in the Netherlands for which wintering destination was known on the basis of resightings. We also examined whether individual repeatability in arrival date differed between birds wintering north or south of the Sahara. Contrary to expectation, godwits wintering south of the Sahara arrived two days earlier and initiated their clutch six days earlier than godwits wintering north of the Sahara. Arrival date was equally repeatable for both groups, and egg volume larger in birds wintering north of the Sahara. Despite these differences, we found no association between wintering location and the quality of breeding habitat or nest survival. This suggests that the crossing of an important ecological barrier and doubling of the migration distance, twice a year, do not have clear negative reproductive consequences for some long‐distance migrants.     

Determining habitat quality for species that demonstrate dynamic habitat selection

Determining habitat quality for wildlife populations requires relating a species' habitat to its survival and reproduction. Within a season, species occurrence and density can be disconnected from measures of habitat quality when resources are highly seasonal, unpredictable over time, and patchy. Here we establish an explicit link among dynamic selection of changing resources, spatio‐temporal species distributions, and fitness for predictive abundance and occurrence models that are used for short‐term water management and long‐term restoration planning. We used the wading bird distribution and evaluation models (WADEM) that estimate (1) daily changes in selection across resource gradients, (2) landscape abundance of flocks and individuals, (3) conspecific foraging aggregation, and (4) resource unit occurrence (at fixed 400 m cells) to quantify habitat quality and its consequences on reproduction for wetland indicator species. We linked maximum annual numbers of nests detected across the study area and nesting success of Great Egrets (Ardea alba), White Ibises (Eudocimus albus), and Wood Storks (Mycteria americana) over a 20‐year period to estimated daily dynamics of food resources produced by WADEM over a 7490 km² area. For all species, increases in predicted species abundance in March and high abundance in April were strongly linked to breeding responses. Great Egret nesting effort and success were higher when birds also showed greater conspecific foraging aggregation. Synthesis and applications: This study provides the first empirical evidence that dynamic habitat selection processes and distributions of wading birds over environmental gradients are linked with reproductive measures over periods of decades. Further, predictor variables at a variety of temporal (daily‐multiannual) resolutions and spatial (400 m to regional) scales effectively explained variation in ecological processes that change habitat quality. The process used here allows managers to develop short‐ and long‐term conservation strategies that (1) consider flexible behavioral patterns and (2) are robust to environmental variation over time.     

Common montane birds are declining in northern Europe

Large‐scale multi‐species data on population changes of alpine or arctic species are largely lacking. At the same time, climate change has been argued to cause poleward and uphill range shifts and the concomitant predicted loss of habitat may have drastic effects on alpine and arctic species. Here we present a multi‐national bird indicator for the Fennoscandian mountain range in northern Europe (Finland, Sweden and Norway), based on 14 common species of montane tundra and subalpine birch forest. The data were collected at 262 alpine survey plots, mainly as a part of geographically representative national breeding bird monitoring schemes. The area sampled covers around 1/4 million km², spanning 10 degrees of latitude and 1600 km in a northeast–southwest direction. During 2002–2012, nine of the 14 bird species declined significantly in numbers, in parallel to higher summer temperatures and precipitation during this period compared to the preceding 40 yr. The population trends were largely parallel in the three countries and similar among montane tundra and subalpine birch forest species. Long‐distance migrants declined less on average than residents and short‐distance migrants. Some potential causes of the current decline of alpine birds are discussed, but since montane bird population sizes may show strong natural annual variation due to several factors, longer time series are needed to verify the observed population trends. The present Fennoscandian monitoring systems, which from 2010 onwards include more than 400 montane survey plots, have the capacity to deliver a robust bird indicator in the climate‐sensitive mountainous regions of northernmost Europe for conservation purposes.