Coupled Human-Environment Dynamics of Forest Pest Spread and Control in a Multi-Patch,Stochastic Setting

Background

The transportation of camp firewood infested by non-native forest pests such as Asian long-horned beetle (ALB) and emerald ash borer (EAB) has severe impacts on North American forests. Once invasive forest pests are established, it can be difficult to eradicate them. Hence, preventing the long-distance transport of firewood by individuals is crucial.

Methods

Here we develop a stochastic simulation model that captures the interaction between forest pest infestations and human decisions regarding firewood transportation. The population of trees is distributed across 10 patches (parks) comprising a “low volume” partition of 5 patches that experience a low volume of park visitors, and a “high volume” partition of 5 patches experiencing a high visitor volume. The infestation spreads within a patch—and also between patches—according to the probability of between-patch firewood transportation. Individuals decide to transport firewood or buy it locally based on the costs of locally purchased versus transported firewood, social norms, social learning, and level of concern for observed infestations.

Results

We find that the average time until a patch becomes infested depends nonlinearly on many model parameters. In particular, modest increases in the tree removal rate, modest increases in public concern for infestation, and modest decreases in the cost of locally purchased firewood, relative to baseline (current) values, cause very large increases in the average time until a patch becomes infested due to firewood transport from other patches, thereby better preventing long-distance spread. Patches that experience lower visitor volumes benefit more from firewood movement restrictions than patches that experience higher visitor volumes. Also, cross–patch infestations not only seed new infestations, they can also worsen existing infestations to a surprising extent: long-term infestations are more intense in the high volume patches than the low volume patches, even when infestation is already endemic everywhere.

Conclusions

The success of efforts to prevent long-distance spread of forest pests may depend sensitively on the interaction between outbreak dynamics and human social processes, with similar levels of effort producing very different outcomes depending on where the coupled human and natural system exists in parameter space. Further development of such modeling approaches through better empirical validation should yield more precise recommendations for ways to optimally prevent the long-distance spread of invasive forest pests.     

Modelling Interactions between Forest Pest Invasions and Human Decisions Regarding Firewood Transport Restrictions

The invasion of nonnative, wood-boring insects such as the Asian longhorned beetle (A. glabripennis) and the emerald ash borer (A. planipennis) is a serious ecological and economic threat to Canadian deciduous and mixed-wood forests. Humans act as a major vector for the spread of these pests via firewood transport, although existing models do not explicitly capture human decision-making regarding firewood transport. In this paper we present a two-patch coupled human-environment system model that includes social influence and long-distance firewood transport and examines potential strategies for mitigating pest spread. We found that increasing concern regarding infestations (f) significantly reduced infestation. Additionally it resulted in multiple thresholds at which the intensity of infestation in a patch was decreased. It was also found that a decrease in the cost of firewood purchased in the area where it is supposed to be burned (C _l) resulted in an increased proportion of local-firewood strategists, and a 67% decrease in C _l from $6.75 to $4.50 was sufficient to eliminate crosspatch infestation. These effects are synergistic: increasing concern through awareness and education campaigns acts together with reduced firewood costs, thereby reducing the required threshold of both awareness and economic incentives. Our results indicate that the best management strategy includes a combination of public education paired with firewood subsidization.     

What does "local" firewood buy you? Managing the risk of invasive species introduction

Firewood can serve as a vector in the transport of non-native species, including wood-boring insects that feed within the wood and thus can be transported accidentally. Governments have enacted limitations on the movement of firewood in an effort to limit the anthropogenic movement of non-native species through, for example, recreational camping. Although the movement of invasive species through firewood is a documented invasion pathway, it is not trivial for governments to determine a "safe" allowable distance for moving firewood. We were motivated by this challenge and developed a theoretical simulation to determine the campgrounds that could be potentially exposed to infested firewood based upon the hypothetical distribution of an invasive species and the allowable distance for moving firewood. We extend this concept to the known distributions of emerald ash borer, Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) and Asian longhorned beetle, Anoplophora glabripennis (Motschulsky) Coleoptera: Cerambycidae). We illustrate, based upon theoretical and empirical observations, that as the distribution of an invasive species increases, more rigid constraints on the movement of firewood would be required relative to those species that are distributed over a smaller scale. Also, on the level of management within a state, smaller states have far less margin for error than larger ones, as even extremely rigid restrictions on the movement of firewood could have little management effect unless the infested area is spatially limited. These results collectively suggest the potential for a dynamic management strategy that adjusts allowable distances for firewood movement based upon the distribution of the non-native species.     

Awareness,concern and willingness to adopt biosecure behaviours: public perceptions of invasive tree pests and pathogens in the UK

The growing incidence of invasive tree pest and disease outbreaks is recognised as an increasing threat to ecosystem services and human wellbeing. Linked to global trade, human movement and climate change, a number of outbreaks have attracted high public and media attention. However, there is surprisingly little evidence characterising the nature of public attentiveness to these events, nor how publics might respond to evolving outbreaks and the management actions taken. This paper presents findings from an online questionnaire involving 1334 respondents nationally-representative of the British public to assess awareness, concern and willingness to adopt biosecure behaviours. Despite revealing low levels of awareness and knowledge, the results indicate that the British public is concerned about the health of trees, forests and woodlands and is moderately willing to adopt biosecure behaviours. A key finding is that membership of environmental organisations and strong place identity are likely to engender higher awareness and levels of concern about tree pests and diseases. Further, those who visit woodlands regularly are likely to be more aware than non-visitors, and gardeners are more likely to be concerned than non-gardeners. Women, older respondents, those with strong place identity and dependence, members of environmental organisations, woodland visitors and gardeners were most likely to express a willingness to adopt biosecure behaviours. A comparison with findings from a survey conducted by the authors 3 years previously shows a decline over time in awareness, concern and willingness.     

Using a Network Model to Assess Risk of Forest Pest Spread via Recreational Travel

Long-distance dispersal pathways, which frequently relate to human activities, facilitate the spread of alien species. One pathway of concern in North America is the possible spread of forest pests in firewood carried by visitors to campgrounds or recreational facilities. We present a network model depicting the movement of campers and, by extension, potentially infested firewood. We constructed the model from US National Recreation Reservation Service data documenting more than seven million visitor reservations (including visitors from Canada) at campgrounds nationwide. This bi-directional model can be used to identify likely origin and destination locations for a camper-transported pest. To support broad-scale decision making, we used the model to generate summary maps for 48 US states and seven Canadian provinces that depict the most likely origins of campers traveling from outside the target state or province. The maps generally showed one of two basic spatial patterns of out-of-state (or out-of-province) origin risk. In the eastern United States, the riskiest out-of-state origin locations were usually found in a localized region restricted to portions of adjacent states. In the western United States, the riskiest out-of-state origin locations were typically associated with major urban areas located far from the state of interest. A few states and the Canadian provinces showed characteristics of both patterns. These model outputs can guide deployment of resources for surveillance, firewood inspections, or other activities. Significantly, the contrasting map patterns indicate that no single response strategy is appropriate for all states and provinces. If most out-of-state campers are traveling from distant areas, it may be effective to deploy resources at key points along major roads (e.g., interstate highways), since these locations could effectively represent bottlenecks of camper movement. If most campers are from nearby areas, they may have many feasible travel routes, so a more widely distributed deployment may be necessary.     

Public Attitudes toward the Use of Animals in Research: Effects of Invasiveness,Genetic Modification and Regulation

ABSTRACT

This study describes an online public engagement experiment aimed at investigating how acceptance of animal-based research is affected by: (a) the presence of regulations that govern the use of nonhuman animals in laboratories, (b) the invasiveness of procedures, and (c) the use of genetically modified (GM) animals. To meet these aims, participants were asked if they were willing to accept the use of pigs in different scenarios involving agricultural research. Two-thirds of the 681 participants were female and the majority (58%) were young (19–29 years old) with college or university level education (62%). Participants came from 26 different countries, with the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom being the top three countries represented. Participants who self-identified as being vegetarians, familiar with animal welfare, animal advocates, environmental advocates, and familiar with animal research were significantly more likely to be opposed to animal-based research. Older participants were significantly less likely to oppose animal-based research. Support significantly decreased when animal-based research involved an invasive procedure or GM animals. Support for invasive research significantly increased when regulation was in place, but regulation had less effect on acceptance of GM animal use. Comments provided by participants illustrated different decision-making strategies regarding different types of animal-based research. Given the increasing use of GM animals in research, more effort is required to understand people's concerns regarding this type of animal use and to determine how these concerns should be reflected in policy.     

Urban trees: bridge-heads for forest pest invasions and sentinels for early detection

Urban trees have been increasingly appreciated for the many benefits they provide. As concentrated hubs of human-mediated movement, the urban landscape is, however, often the first point of contact for exotic pests including insects and plant pathogens. Consequently, urban trees can be important for accidentally introduced forest pests to become established and potentially invasive. Reductions in biodiversity and the potential for stressful conditions arising from anthropogenic disturbances can predispose these trees to pest attack, further increasing the likelihood of exotic forest pests becoming established and increasing in density. Once established in urban environments, dispersal of introduced pests can proceed to natural forest landscapes or planted forests. In addition to permanent long-term damage to natural ecosystems, the consequences of these invasions include costly attempts at eradication and post establishment management strategies. We discuss a range of ecological, economic and social impacts arising from these incursions and the importance of global biosecurity is highlighted as a crucially important barrier to pest invasions. Finally, we suggest that urban trees may be viewed as ‘sentinel plantings’. In particular, botanical gardens and arboreta frequently house large collections of exotic plantings, providing a unique opportunity to help predict and prevent the invasion of new pests, and where introduced pests with the capacity to cause serious impacts in forest environments could potentially be detected during the initial stages of establishment. Such early detection offers the only realistic prospect of eradication, thereby reducing damaging ecological impacts and long term management costs.     

Dispersal of invasive forest insects via recreational firewood: a quantitative analysis

Recreational travel is a recognized vector for the spread of invasive species in North America. However, there has been little quantitative analysis of the risks posed by such travel and the associated transport of firewood. In this study, we analyzed the risk of forest insect spread with firewood and estimated related dispersal parameters for application in geographically explicit invasion models. Our primary data source was the U.S. National Recreation Reservation Service database, which records camper reservations at > 2,500 locations nationwide. For > 7 million individual reservations made between 2004 and 2009 (including visits from Canada), we calculated the distance between visitor home address and campground location. We constructed an empirical dispersal kernel (i.e., the probability distribution of the travel distances) from these "origin-destination" data, and then fitted the data with various theoretical distributions. We found the data to be strongly leptokurtic (fat-tailed) and fairly well fit by the unbounded Johnson and lognormal distributions. Most campers ( approximately 53%) traveled <100 km, but approximately 10% traveled > 500 km (and as far as 5,500 km). Additionally, we examined the impact of geographic region, specific destinations (major national parks), and specific origin locations (major cities) on the shape of the dispersal kernel, and found that mixture distributions (i.e., theoretical distribution functions composed of multiple univariate distributions) may fit better in some circumstances. Although only a limited amount of all transported firewood is likely to be infested by forest insects, this still represents a considerable increase in dispersal potential beyond the insects' natural spread capabilities.     

Pest problems: The view of an environmentalist

Abstract

The key issue for me is the great need I see for enhanced public awareness of the significance of pests and of the importance of controlling or managing them. Without such clear public understanding, it is difficult to see how we, as a society, can stimulate the level of effort, commitment, and financial resources that is required of us at every level—from Central Government and Regional Councils to individual land owners. Reflecting on this has stimulated me to think about the ambivalence of the conservation and environment movement on this issue.     

Regional differences in awareness and attitudes regarding genetic testing for disease risk and ancestry

Little is known about the lay public’s awareness and attitudes concerning genetic testing and what factors influence their perspectives. The existing literature focuses mainly on ethnic and socioeconomic differences; however, here we focus on how awareness and attitudes regarding genetic testing differ by geographical regions in the US. We compared awareness and attitudes concerning genetic testing for disease risk and ancestry among 452 adults (41% Black and 67% female) in four major US cities, Norman, OK; Cincinnati, OH; Harlem, NY; and Washington, DC; prior to their participation in genetic ancestry testing. The OK participants reported more detail about their personal ancestries (p = 0.02) and valued ancestry testing over disease testing more than all other sites (p < 0.01). The NY participants were more likely than other sites to seek genetic testing for disease (p = 0.01) and to see benefit in finding out more about one’s ancestry (p = 0.02), while the DC participants reported reading and hearing more about genetic testing for African ancestry than all other sites (p < 0.01). These site differences were not better accounted for by sex, age, education, self-reported ethnicity, religion, or previous experience with genetic testing/counseling. Regional differences in awareness and attitudes transcend traditional demographic predictors, such as ethnicity, age and education. Local sociocultural factors, more than ethnicity and socioeconomic status, may influence the public’s awareness and belief systems, particularly with respect to genetics.     

Outreach increases detections of an invasive species in a crowdsourced monitoring program

Crowdsourcing can be a useful tool for the early detection of invasive species. Invasive wild pigs (Sus scrofa) have been reported in Ontario, Canada. We compared trends in reporting frequency of wild pig sightings to trends in media events that included directions for the public on where to submit their wild pig sightings. We found that media events occurring on the same week, and in up to two weeks before the sighting was reported significantly increased the number of wild pig reports we received. Our findings suggest that media can be used to increase participation by the public. Because of this relationship, our findings also imply that reporting frequency alone cannot accurately index real changes in wild pig numbers—participants were more likely to report sightings after they had been exposed to relevant media, and spikes in the number of reports tracked our outreach efforts. Despite this limitation, reports of wild pig sightings from community members remain a cost-effective tool to detect low-density invasive species across large regions, and participation in the program can be increased with periodic news media and social media blitzes.

     

Modelling Associations between Public Understanding,Engagement and Forest Conditions in the Inland Northwest,USA

Opinions about public lands and the actions of private non-industrial forest owners in the western United States play important roles in forested landscape management as both public and private forests face increasing risks from large wildfires, pests and disease. This work presents the responses from two surveys, a random-sample telephone survey of more than 1500 residents and a mail survey targeting owners of parcels with 10 or more acres of forest. These surveys were conducted in three counties (Wallowa, Union, and Baker) in northeast Oregon, USA. We analyze these survey data using structural equation models in order to assess how individual characteristics and understanding of forest management issues affect perceptions about forest conditions and risks associated with declining forest health on public lands. We test whether forest understanding is informed by background, beliefs, and experiences, and whether as an intervening variable it is associated with views about forest conditions on publicly managed forests. Individual background characteristics such as age, gender and county of residence have significant direct or indirect effects on our measurement of understanding. Controlling for background factors, we found that forest owners with higher self-assessed understanding, and more education about forest management, tend to hold more pessimistic views about forest conditions. Based on our results we argue that self-assessed understanding, interest in learning, and willingness to engage in extension activities together have leverage to affect perceptions about the risks posed by declining forest conditions on public lands, influence land owner actions, and affect support for public policies. These results also have broader implications for management of forested landscapes on public and private lands amidst changing demographics in rural communities across the Inland Northwest where migration may significantly alter the composition of forest owner goals, understanding, and support for various management actions.     

农户薪柴消费的理论模型及实证研究

农户薪柴消费变化对室内空气质量、农村生态环境建设影响重大,论文构建了山区农户薪柴消费的理论模型,以重庆市典型区1015份农户调查数据为例,运用Tobit模型分析了农户人均薪柴消费量的影响因素。研究表明:农户家庭能源消费中,商品能源和新能源的比重逐步增大,但薪柴依旧是农户普遍使用的能源类型,且消费量占总能源消费量的比重高;通过降低农业劳动力比重和提高非农工资水平两种途径,非农就业能显著降低农户人均薪柴消费量;家庭电器数量增多、其他收入(政府补贴、亲戚帮扶等)增加、及替代能源(液化气、沼气、煤炭等)可获得性增强也能显著降低农户人均薪柴消费量,而户主年龄大、人均牲畜数量多及房屋离集市距离远的农户家庭的人均薪柴消费量高。提出了加快薪柴替代的措施。     

In lakes but not in minds: stakeholder knowledge of invasive species in prairie lakes

Humans are key vectors in the spread and establishment of aquatic invasive species (AIS), and human behavior can exacerbate or help prevent further spread of non-native species. Therefore, stakeholders’ knowledge is critical to preventing establishment of AIS. However, stakeholders’ AIS knowledge in prairie lakes remains poorly understood. We used a survey questionnaire in Saskatchewan, Canada, to assess the state of AIS knowledge, identify predictors of knowledge, and optimize management strategies. Statistical analyses of the responses of 440 participants indicated a generally low level of AIS knowledge, suggesting low communication success. Respondents were generally more aware of non-native fishes than plants. Of concern was the observation of substantial knowledge gaps regarding non-native mussels and important preventative behaviors that may have devastating ecological, social, and economic consequences if left unaddressed. Better understanding of AIS issues was significantly associated with several trans-situational (age, sex and education), situational (recreational purpose and using multiple lakes), and lake-related knowledge (awareness of eutrophication) predictors. Exploitation of these predictors is recommended to improve effectiveness of outreach and communication efforts. Specifically, we propose that management strategies focus on improving communications by streamlining outreach messages, targeting low-knowledge groups (e.g., swimmers, cabin owners), and expanding education campaigns.     

新疆林果外来入侵生物的发生及检测监测和控制策略

近10年来,新疆林果业快速发展。随着林果种苗等繁殖材料的运输,林果有害生物由境外、省外及在区内传播的风险加剧,外来有害生物入侵成为当下影响新疆林果业健康发展的重要问题。在鉴定工作方面,目前新疆林果外来入侵生物的鉴定更多地采用了分子生物学鉴定的方法;在监测工作层面,新疆林果有害生物普查以人工地面调查为主;在防控方面,主要以药剂防治的方法为主,辅以生物防治技术及栽培措施等多种方法。全疆的林业主管部门成功控制了多种林果外来入侵生物引起的疫情,包括枣实蝇和扶桑绵粉蚧这2种极具危害性的林果外来入侵生物。新疆林果外来入侵生物的鉴定、监测及防控工作的开展,可将林果外来入侵生物所带来的危险降到最低程度,促进全疆林业的发展。     

Does Forest Scarcity Affect the Collection and Use of Firewood by Rural Communities? A Case Study in the Atlantic Forest of Northeastern Brazil

Many rural communities no longer have abundant forest areas for firewood collection. Based on this scenario, we evaluated how the scarcity of forest environments influences the collection and use of this resource in rural areas. A community located in the Atlantic Forest region of northeastern Brazil, which already lacks forest areas for firewood, was selected for field research. We observed that despite this context of forest scarcity, firewood remains the main source of fuel energy in the community. In total, 27 species of wood were cited, with an emphasis on exotic species in terms of number of citations. The perceived wood quality explained the frequency of plant use, but not the number of consumers. This can be explained by the difficulty of access to some species considered of better quality, because in the studied region, the plants are usually collected in private areas. Efforts in conservation strategies are recommended to encourage an increase in the frequency of use of the available exotic species in order to safeguard the native ones.     

Dispersal patterns of exotic forest pests in South Korea

Abstract Invasive species have potentially devastating effects on ecological communities and ecosystems. To understand the invasion process of exotic forest pests in South Korea, we reviewed four major species of exotic forest pests: the pine needle gall midge (Thecodiplosis japonensis), pine wilt disease caused by the pine wood nematode (Bursaphelenchus xylophilus), the fall webworm (Hyphantria cunea) and the black pine bast scale (Matsucoccus thunbergianae). We consider their biology, ecology, invasion history, dispersal patterns and related traits, and management as exotic species. Among these species, the dispersal process of fall webworm was linear, showing a constant range expansion as a function of time, whereas the other three species showed biphasic patterns, rapidly increasing dispersal speed after slow dispersal at the early invasion stage. Moreover, human activities accelerated their expansion, suggesting that prevention of the artificial movement of damaged trees would be useful to slow expansion of exotic species. We believe that this information would be useful to establish management strategies for invasion species.     

Perception and knowledge of the Sirex woodwasp and other forest pests in South Africa

• 1 Sirex noctilio F. (Siricidae: Hymenoptera) is one of the most serious invasive pests of pine. In South Africa, there has been a national effort to control S. noctilio, including a campaign to increase awareness of the pest amongst the local forestry community.
• 2 We considered the impacts that the arrival of the pest and the awareness campaign have had on perceptions and knowledge of S. noctilio, as well as other forestry pests, amongst members of the forestry community.
• 3 For data collection, a survey questionnaire was developed and used in telephone interviews.
• 4 The results obtained in the present study showed that the Sirex awareness campaign had increased knowledge of forestry pests in general but basic knowledge regarding the identification and symptoms of specific pests, such as S. noctilio, was poor. This will negatively influence monitoring efficacy.
• 5 Traditional paper‐based media and personal contact contributed most to enhanced awareness. Electronic media were less effective and improvement would require a more focused effort. It was of concern that private farmers and contractors, as well as non‐European first language speakers, were less well informed about forestry pests.
• 6 Clearly, a fragmented landscape in terms of ownership and language, presents challenges for effective communication of forestry pest threats.

     

Advertising Animal Protection

ABSTRACT

Animal protection advocates are making use of paid and public service advertising to promote the interests of animals. One advertising approach, the graphic portrayal of animal suffering, has generated controversy within and beyond the animal protection movement. Research suggests that the approach can be effective in stimulating those viewing the advertisement to take action on behalf of animals. Other advertising strategies that may be capable of provoking more humane treatment of animals include tacit depictions of animal suffering and reversing human-animal traits and situations through therianthropic and unconventional anthropomorphic imagery. Advertisements from current and former animal protection campaigns were reviewed for examples of these animal representational strategies. This is the final in a series of papers on the role of mass media in animal protection. Previous articles detailed a history of media coverage of animal protection issues, the role of the media in the animal rights movement, and the effect of the media on public policy decisions concerning animals (Jones 1996, 1997a and b).     

Trade-associated pathways of alien forest insect entries in Canada

Long-distance introductions of new invasive species have often been driven by socioeconomic factors, such that traditional “biological” invasion models may not be capable of estimating spread fully and reliably. In this study we present a new methodology to characterize and predict pathways of human-assisted entries of alien forest insects. We have developed a stochastic quantitative model of how these species may be moved with commodity flow through a network of international marine ports and major transportation corridors in Canada. The study makes use of a Canadian roadside survey database and data on Canadian marine imports, complemented with geo-referenced information on ports of entry, populated places and empirical observations of historical spread rates for invasive pests. The model is formulated as a probabilistic pathway matrix, and allows for quantitative characterization of likelihoods and vectors of new pest introductions from already or likely-to-be infested locations. We applied the pathway model to estimate the rates of human-assisted entry of alien forest insect species across Canada as well as cross-border transport to locations in the US. Results suggest a relatively low nationwide entry rate for Canada when compared to the US (0.338 new forest insect species per year vs. 1.89). Among Canadian urban areas, Greater Toronto and Greater Vancouver appear to have the highest alien forest insect entry potential, exhibiting species entry rates that are comparable with estimated rates at mid-size US urban metropolises.