Vital statistics of the baobab (Adansonia digitata)

Five populations of baobab trees in Zambia, Sudan, Mali, Kenya and Tanzania were measured to establish distribution of girth size classes. Absolute growth rates from rings or from empirical observations in each area were used to convert size into age classes. Baobab populations appear to be much younger than has generally been believed and only very few trees live to ages in excess of 400 years. Instantaneous mortality rates vary from 1 1 to 3–7% per year in the different areas. A lack of recruitment to the youngest age classes is caused by elephants in some areas but land-use changes due to increasing human populations and increased domestic animal numbers may also be responsible for low recruitment rates in other areas.     

Experimental harvest regulations reveal that water availability during spring,not harvest,affects change in a waterfowl population

Population change is regulated by vital rates that are influenced by environmental conditions, demographic stochasticity, and, increasingly, anthropogenic effects. Habitat destruction and climate change threaten the future of many wildlife populations, and there are additional concerns regarding the effects of harvest rates on demographic components of harvested organisms. Further, many population managers strictly manage harvest of wild organisms to mediate population trends of these populations. The goal of our study was to decouple harvest and environmental variability in a closely monitored population of wild ducks in North America, where we experimentally regulated harvest independently of environmental variation over a period of 4 years. We used 9 years of capture–mark–recapture data to estimate breeding population size during the spring for a population of wood ducks in Nevada. We then assessed the effect of one environmental variable and harvest pressure on annual changes in the breeding population size. Climatic conditions influencing water availability were strongly positively related to population growth rates of wood ducks in our study system. In contrast, harvest regulations and harvest rates did not affect population growth rates. We suggest efforts to conserve waterfowl should focus on the effects of habitat loss in breeding areas and climate change, which will likely affect precipitation regimes in the future. We demonstrate the utility of capture–mark–recapture methods to estimate abundance of species which are difficult to survey and test the impacts of anthropogenic harvest and climate on populations. Finally, our results continue to add to the importance of experimentation in applied conservation biology, where we believe that continued experiments on nonthreatened species will be critically important as researchers attempt to understand how to quantify and mitigate direct anthropogenic impacts in a changing world.     

Population size and conservation of the last eastern remnants of the regal fritillary, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Speyeria idalia</Emphasis> (Drury) [Lepidoptera,Nymphalidae]; implications for temperate grassland restoration

We monitored the last remaining Pennsylvania population of the regal fritillary butterfly (Speyeria idalia) for 8 years (1997–2005) at Fort Indiantown Gap, a National Guard training facility located in south-central Pennsylvania, USA. We observed demes of this population in five grassland areas, four of which received limited protection from anthropogenic military activities (i.e., motorized vehicles were prohibited). The Pollard walk technique allowed us to make estimates of butterfly density over the consecutive 8 years period. Mark/Recapture estimates of population size were done in 2005. Of the three areas surveyed for relative abundance over the entire 8 years period, none showed significant changes in relative population density of adult butterflies, indicating that the population remained stable over the 8 years. Mark-recapture estimates of population size in 2005 indicate that this population reached a peak of 913 butterflies that year. The stability of population size occurred despite efforts to improve habitat. Dead caterpillars were found over 3 years in some fields indicating that caterpillar habitat includes both violets (caterpillar food plants) and mature warm season grasses approximately 5 years post-disturbance. These disturbances are caused by military activity such as motorized vehicle training that reduces areas to bare soil. These activities are now banned in protected butterfly areas.     

Rapid warming is associated with population decline among terrestrial birds and mammals globally

Animal populations have undergone substantial declines in recent decades. These declines have occurred alongside rapid, human‐driven environmental change, including climate warming. An association between population declines and environmental change is well established, yet there has been relatively little analysis of the importance of the rates of climate warming and its interaction with conversion to anthropogenic land use in causing population declines. Here we present a global assessment of the impact of rapid climate warming and anthropogenic land use conversion on 987 populations of 481 species of terrestrial birds and mammals since 1950. We collated spatially referenced population trends of at least 5 years’ duration from the Living Planet database and used mixed effects models to assess the association of these trends with observed rates of climate warming, rates of conversion to anthropogenic land use, body mass, and protected area coverage. We found that declines in population abundance for both birds and mammals are greater in areas where mean temperature has increased more rapidly, and that this effect is more pronounced for birds. However, we do not find a strong effect of conversion to anthropogenic land use, body mass, or protected area coverage. Our results identify a link between rapid warming and population declines, thus supporting the notion that rapid climate warming is a global threat to biodiversity.     

Forecasting range expansion into ecological traps: climate‐mediated shifts in sea turtle nesting beaches and human development

Some species are adapting to changing environments by expanding their geographic ranges. Understanding whether range shifts will be accompanied by increased exposure to other threats is crucial to predicting when and where new populations could successfully establish. If species overlap to a greater extent with human development under climate change, this could form ecological traps which are attractive to dispersing individuals, but the use of which substantially reduces fitness. Until recently, the core nesting range for the Critically Endangered Kemp's ridley sea turtle (Lepidochelys kempii) was ca. 1000 km of sparsely populated coastline in Tamaulipas, Mexico. Over the past twenty‐five years, this species has expanded its range into populated areas of coastal Florida (>1500 km outside the historical range), where nesting now occurs annually. Suitable Kemp's ridley nesting habitat has persisted for at least 140 000 years in the western Gulf of Mexico, and climate change models predict further nesting range expansion into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and northern Atlantic Ocean. Range expansion is 6–12% more likely to occur along uninhabited stretches of coastline than are current nesting beaches, suggesting that novel nesting areas will not be associated with high levels of anthropogenic disturbance. Although the high breeding‐site fidelity of some migratory species could limit adaptation to climate change, rapid population recovery following effective conservation measures may enhance opportunities for range expansion. Anticipating the interactive effects of past or contemporary conservation measures, climate change, and future human activities will help focus long‐term conservation strategies.     

Kori bustard (Ardeotis kori struthiunculus) occurrence in the Serengeti grass plains,northern Tanzania

The kori bustard (Ardeotis kori struthiunculus) is indigenous to grasslands and lightly wooded savannahs of southern and eastern Africa. The species is categorized as near threatened in its entire range due to anthropogenic factors and low reproductive rates. The aim of this study was to analyse the impact of grass colour, grass height, season and location on the density/occurrence of this bird species in the Serengeti grass plains, Tanzania. Data were collected from January 2014 to June 2015 using transect counts in four seasons: (i) short dry, (ii) long rain, (iii) long dry and (iv) short rain seasons, respectively. The mean density of kori bustard in the grass plains was 0.25 ± 1.01 per 0.2 km² with near‐significant differences among the study sites. The occurrence of kori bustard was high in the medium height (11–30 cm) during the long rain and short dry seasons. The kori bustard density is relatively low, and the distribution varies with grass height and season. We suggest that conservation efforts should be directed at preventing its local extinction by protecting the habitat from excessive human activities, such as livestock grazing and illegal offtake.     

Identifying conservation priority areas and predicting the climate change impact on the future habitats of endangered Nepenthes khasiana Hook.f. utilizing ecological niche modelling

Developing strategies for effective species conservation is necessary to counter the ever-fluctuating environmental conditions with increasing anthropogenic activities. Studies have proven Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM) as an effective tool for sustainable conservation. Nepenthes khasiana Hook.f. is an endangered pitcher plant facing a constant decline in population due to anthropogenic activities. This study aimed to locate the most suitable areas for re-establishing the species in natural habitats using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modelling, and to forecast the effects of current and future climate conditions on its distribution throughout Northeast India. The potential suitable areas in future climate under three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios and in the current climate were predicted utilizing the 30 occurrence data, bioclimatic predictors, and variables from BCC-CSM1.1 model and WorldClim respectively. The results of the current study showed significant relationships among annual precipitation, precipitation in the driest month, seasonality of precipitation, annual range iso-thermality of temperature, mean diurnal range [Mean of monthly (max temp - min temp)], and the distribution of the analysed species. The optimum model performance was represented by the AUC value of 0.972 ± 0.007. The model predicted 10.70% of the NE Indian region as climatically suitable, which will expand under RCP4.5 and RCP6.0, reaching 15.35%, and 12.64%, respectively. However, this may degrade significantly under RCP8.5, reducing to 8.14%. Based on the analysis of modelling results it was found that the Nokrek belt and the Khasi hills as highly suitable regions for the reintroduction of the species. The study revalidated ENM as an effective means to identify new populations and predict the influence of climate change on the future habitat which can benefit the concurrent species management strategies.     

Survey of Loxodonta africana (Elephantidae)‐caused bark injury on Adansonia digitata (Malavaceae) within Pendjari Biosphere Reserve,Benin

This study assessed the level of bark damage on baobab trees (Adansonia digitata) as caused by elephants (Loxodonta africana), and the possibility of finding refuges where baobab could escape bark damage within the Pendjari Biosphere Reserve (PBR). Distributions of elephants and baobab trees within the PBR were compared using presence records of both species taken along transect lines. Two sites (National Park vs. hunting zone) that differ in elephant density were compared for intensity of bark damage and correlations between the intensity of bark damage and stem size of the baobab trees and population structure of the baobab trees. Elephants and baobabs showed co‐occurrence in PBR suggesting that there is nowhere to hide for baobabs. The intensity of bark damage was positively correlated with elephant density and baobab girth. Baobab population girth classes were not significantly different in areas with and without bark damage. Future studies should test whether there are certain baobab genotypes that can resist elephant damage. It could also be tested whether effective conservation of elephants in the PBR has resulted in a bull‐biased population over its carrying capacity.     

Past climate change drives current genetic structure of an endangered freshwater mussel species

Historical‐to‐recent climate change and anthropogenic disturbance affect species distributions and genetic structure. The Rio Grande watershed of the United States and Mexico encompasses ecosystems that are intensively exploited, resulting in substantial degradation of aquatic habitats. While significant anthropogenic disturbances in the Rio Grande are recent, inhospitable conditions for freshwater organisms likely existed prior to such disturbances. A combination of anthropogenic and past climate factors may contribute to current distributions of aquatic fauna in the Rio Grande basin. We used mitochondrial DNA and 18 microsatellite loci to infer evolutionary history and genetic structure of an endangered freshwater mussel, Popenaias popeii, throughout the Rio Grande drainage. We estimated spatial connectivity and gene flow across extant populations of P. popeii and used ecological niche models (ENMs) and approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) to infer its evolutionary history during the Pleistocene. structure results recovered regional and local population clusters in the Rio Grande. ENMs predicted drastic reductions in suitable habitat during the last glacial maximum. ABC analyses suggested that regional population structure likely arose in this species during the mid‐to‐late Pleistocene and was followed by a late Pleistocene population bottleneck in New Mexico populations. The local population structure arose relatively recently, perhaps due to anthropogenic factors. Popenaias popeii, one of the few freshwater mussel species native to the Rio Grande basin, is a case study for understanding how both geological and anthropogenic factors shape current population genetic structure. Conservation strategies for this species should account for the fragmented nature of contemporary populations.     

The importance of marginal population hotspots of cold‐adapted species for research on climate change and conservation

Areas hosting hotspots of low‐latitude marginal populations of cold‐adapted plant species could be key areas for understanding geographical attributes that result in refugia during climatic shifts as well as the conservation of genetic diversity in the face of climate change. Low‐latitude populations of cold‐adapted plants are important because they may harbour the combination of alleles that foster persistence in a warmer climate. Consequently, identification of areas where arctic‐alpine, circumpolar and circumboreal species reach the low‐latitude ends of their distribution will present a unique opportunity to uncover processes that shaped current biogeographical patterns, as well as prepare for future scenarios. Here, we identify 35 main marginal population hotspots (19 and 16 areas in North America and Europe, respectively) of 183 plant taxa. These hotspots represent areas where southern marginal populations of cold‐adapted species co‐occur. The identification of hotspots was based on geographic overlap of southernmost locations of the target species, in a 50 × 50 km grid. With a threshold of two species in a single grid cell or in two contiguous cells, the analysis revealed that hotspots are in most cases located in the southern portion of major mountain chains. However, hotspots also occur in lowland areas at high latitudes (Fennoscandia, Alaska, Hudson Bay) which do not necessarily correspond to known cold‐ or warm‐stage refugia (e.g. Alps). Rockies and Sierra Nevada both in California and Spain, Apennines, and the southern Scandes, maintain their hotspot status even with more stringent cut‐off thresholds (>3 and >5 species per cell group). From a conservation point of view, our analysis reveals that only a small portion of the hotspots are currently included within protected areas. We discuss the importance of marginal population hotspots to future research on climate change and, finally, outline how conservation strategies can capitalize on the knowledge gained from studying climate change effects on cold‐adapted plants.     

Nesting habits influence population genetic structure of a bee living in anthropogenic disturbance

While most organisms are negatively affected by anthropogenic disturbance, a few species thrive in landscapes altered by humans. Typically, native bees are negatively impacted by anthropogenic environmental change, including habitat alteration and climate change. Here, we investigate the population structure of the eastern carpenter bee Xylocopa virginica, a generalist pollinator with a broad geographic range spanning eastern North America. Eastern carpenter bees now nest almost exclusively in artificial wooden structures, linking their geographic distribution and population structure to human activities and disturbance. To investigate the population structure of these bees, we sampled females from 16 different populations from across their range. Nine species‐specific microsatellite loci showed that almost all populations are genetically distinct, but with high levels of genetic diversity and low levels of inbreeding overall. Broadly speaking, populations clustered into three distinct genetic groups: a northern group, a western group and a core group. The northern group had low effective population sizes, decreased genetic variability and the highest levels of inbreeding in the data set, suggesting that carpenter bees may be expanding their range northward. The western group was genetically distinct, but lacked signals of a recent range expansion. Climatic data showed that summer and winter temperatures explained a significant amount of the genetic differentiation seen among populations, while precipitation did not. Our results indicate that X. virginica may be one of the rare ‘anthrophilic’ species that thrive in the face of anthropogenic disturbance.     

The influence of past land-use on understory plant distributions in a near-natural deciduous forest in Denmark

In regions with a long cultural history, past land-use may strongly determine floristic composition in seemingly natural vegetation. Here we examine if past land-use affects understory plant distribution in near-natural forest in a historically and environmentally heterogeneous setting, namely the 17 ha freshwater island of Borgnr (Denmark). In 107 randomly located 100 m² plots we recorded species composition and various environmental variables. The plots were classified into three groups according to past land-use: (1) Disturbed sites close to 12^th and 20^th century ruins and associated open areas; (2) formerly grazed meadow areas; and (3) forested sites without indications of strong anthropogenic influence. Past land-use, environmental variables and species traits were used to interpret floristic gradients. Unconstrained and constrained ordinations clearly separated plots with different past land-use, and showed that the main floristic gradients on Borgø correlated with hydrological-edaphic conditions and past land-use. Partial constrained ordination using the environmental parameters as covariables showed that past land-use had a unique influence on floristic composition.     

Ancestral origins and invasion pathways in a globally invasive bird correlate with climate and influences from bird trade

Invasive species present a major threat to global biodiversity. Understanding genetic patterns and evolutionary processes that reinforce successful establishment is paramount for elucidating mechanisms underlying biological invasions. Among birds, the ring‐necked parakeet (Psittacula krameri) is one of the most successful invasive species, established in over 35 countries. However, little is known about the evolutionary genetic origins of this species and what population genetic signatures tell us about patterns of invasion. We reveal the ancestral origins of populations across the invasive range and explore the potential influence of climate and propagule pressure from the pet trade on observed genetic patterns. Ring‐necked parakeet samples representing the ancestral native range (n = 96) were collected from museum specimens, and modern samples from the invasive range (n = 855) were gathered from across Europe, Mauritius and Seychelles, and sequenced for two mitochondrial DNA markers comprising 868 bp of cytochrome b and control region, and genotyped at 10 microsatellite loci. Invasive populations comprise birds that originate predominantly from Pakistan and northern areas of India. Haplotypes associated with more northerly distribution limits in the ancestral native range were more prevalent in invasive populations in Europe, and the predominance of Asian haplotypes in Europe is consistent with the higher number of Asian birds transported by the pet trade outside the native range. Successful establishment of invasive species is likely to be underpinned by a combination of environmental and anthropogenic influences.     

Effects of a protection gradient on carnivore density and survival: an example with leopards in the Luangwa valley,Zambia

Human activities on the periphery of protected areas can limit carnivore populations, but measurements of the strength of such effects are limited, largely due to difficulties of obtaining precise data on population density and survival. We measured how density and survival rates of a previously unstudied leopard population varied across a gradient of protection and evaluated which anthropogenic activities accounted for observed patterns. Insights into this generalist's response to human encroachment are likely to identify limiting factors for other sympatric carnivore species. Motion‐sensitive cameras were deployed systematically in adjacent, similarly sized, and ecologically similar study areas inside and outside Zambia's South Luangwa National Park (SLNP) from 2012 to 2014. The sites differed primarily in the degree of human impacts: SLNP is strictly protected, but the adjacent area was subject to human encroachment and bushmeat poaching throughout the study, and trophy hunting of leopards prior to 2012. We used photographic capture histories with robust design capture–recapture models to estimate population size and sex‐specific survival rates for the two areas. Leopard density within SLNP was 67% greater than in the adjacent area, but annual survival rates and sex ratios did not detectably differ between the sites. Prior research indicated that wire‐snare occurrence was 5.2 times greater in the areas adjacent to the park. These results suggest that the low density of leopards on the periphery of SLNP is better explained by prey depletion, rather than by direct anthropogenic mortality. Long‐term spatial data from concurrent lion studies suggested that interspecific competition did not produce the observed patterns. Large carnivore populations are often limited by human activities, but science‐based management policies depend on methods to rigorously and quantitatively assess threats to populations of concern. Using noninvasive robust design capture–recapture methods, we systematically assessed leopard density and survival across a protection gradient and identified bushmeat poaching as the likely limiting factor. This approach is of broad value to evaluate the impacts of anthropogenic activities on carnivore populations that are distributed across gradients of protection.     

Assessing extinction risks under the combined effects of climate change and human disturbance through the analysis of life-history plasticity

Plastic responses of species to unprecedented conditions and increased variability caused by climate change (CC) and anthropogenic disturbances are expected to play a major role determining populations’ extinction risk. We developed a method for assessing CC effects on population dynamics based on analyzing plastic life history responses to weather conditions within an ensemble forecasting framework. The method is illustrated using two threatened cactus species with contrasting distribution ranges. Demographic models were parameterized using 5 years of field data, from which the relationship between life-history traits and rainfall and temperature was estimated. These functions were used in Integral Projection Models to predict population growth under CC scenarios and different anthropogenic disturbance regimes. Both species were affected by CC and its interaction with disturbance. The most widespread species was less affected by CC, suggesting that past selection on plasticity allows it to survive under variable conditions. Managing disturbance appropriately lessened the impact of CC. Some directives for conservation under CC were identified based on projected elasticity values. Our procedure for modeling population dynamics as a function of climate may be used for designing management plans for conservation or sustainable use aimed at important plant sizes or life-history traits, predicting potential distributions, and identifying viable populations.     

Range-wide migration corridors and non-breeding areas of a northward expanding Afro-Palaearctic migrant,the European Bee-eater Merops apiaster

Across their ranges, different populations of migratory species often use separate routes to migrate between breeding and non-breeding grounds. Recent changes in climate and land-use have led to breeding range expansions in many species but it is unclear whether these populations also establish new migratory routes, non-breeding sites and migration phenology. Thus, we compared the migration patterns of European Bee-eaters Merops apiaster from two established western (n = 5) and eastern (n = 6) breeding populations in Europe, with those from a newly founded northern population (n = 19). We aimed to relate the breeding populations to the two known non-breeding clusters in Africa, and to test for similarities of migration routes and timing between the old and new populations. Western Bee-eaters used the western flyway to destinations in West Africa; the eastern birds uniformly headed south to southern African non-breeding sites, confirming a complete separation in time and space between these long-established populations. The recently founded northern population, however, also used a western corridor, but crossed the Mediterranean further east than the western population and overwintered mainly in a new non-breeding area in southern Congo/northern Angola. The migration routes and the new non-breeding range overlapped only slightly with the western, but not with the eastern, population. In contrast, migration phenology appeared to differ between the western and both the northern and the eastern populations, with tracked birds from the western population migrating 2–4 weeks earlier. The northern population thus shares some spatial traits with western Bee-eaters, but similar phenology only with eastern population. This divergence highlights the adjustments in the timing of migration to local environmental conditions in newly founded populations, and a parallel establishment of new breeding and non-breeding sites.     

Land-use history affects understorey plant species distributions in a large temperate-forest complex,Denmark

In Europe, forests have been strongly influenced by human land-use for millennia. Here, we studied the importance of anthropogenic historical factors as determinants of understorey species distributions in a 967 ha Danish forest complex using 156 randomly placed 100-m² plots, 15 environmental, 9 spatial, and 5 historical variables, and principal components analysis (PCA), redundancy analysis (RDA) as well as indicator species analysis. The historical variables were status as ancient (1805 AD) high forest, reclaimed bogs, ≤100 m from Bronze Age burial mounds, or former conifer plantation, and stand age. The PCA results showed that the main gradients in species composition were strongly related to the explanatory variables. Forward variable selection and variation partitioning using RDA showed that although modern environment was the dominant driver of species composition, anthropogenic historical factors were also important. The pure historical variation fraction constituted 13% of the variation explained. The RDA results showed that ancient-forest status and, secondarily, reclaimed bog status were the only significant historical variables. Many typical forest interior species, with poor dispersal and a strong literature record as ancient-forest species, were still concentrated in areas that were high forest in 1805. Among the younger forests, there were clear floristic differences between those on reclaimed bogs and those not. Apparently remnant populations of wet-soil plants were still present in the reclaimed bog areas. Our results emphasize the importance of historical factors for understanding modern vegetation patterns in forested landscapes.     

Anthropogenic fragmentation may not alter pre‐existing patterns of genetic diversity and differentiation in perennial shrubs

Many plant species have pollination and seed dispersal systems and evolutionary histories that have produced strong genetic structuring. These genetic patterns may be consistent with expectations following recent anthropogenic fragmentation, making it difficult to detect fragmentation effects if no prefragmentation genetic data are available. We used microsatellite markers to investigate whether severe habitat fragmentation may have affected the structure and diversity of populations of the endangered Australian bird‐pollinated shrub Grevillea caleyi R.Br., by comparing current patterns of genetic structure and diversity with those of the closely related G. longifolia R.Br. that has a similar life history but has not experienced anthropogenic fragmentation. Grevillea caleyi and G. longifolia showed similar and substantial population subdivision at all spatial levels (global F′_ST = 0.615 and 0.454; S_p = 0.039 and 0.066), marked isolation by distance and large heterozygous deficiencies. These characteristics suggest long‐term effects of inbreeding in self‐compatible species that have poor seed dispersal, limited connectivity via pollen flow and undergo population bottlenecks because of periodic fires. Highly structured allele size distributions, most notably in G. caleyi, imply historical processes of drift and mutation were important in isolated subpopulations. Genetic diversity did not vary with population size but was lower in more isolated populations for both species. Through this comparison, we reject the hypothesis that anthropogenic fragmentation has impacted substantially on the genetic composition or structure of G. caleyi populations. Our results suggest that highly self‐compatible species with limited dispersal may be relatively resilient to the genetic changes predicted to follow habitat fragmentation.     

Mammal population densities at a global scale are higher in human‐modified areas

Global landscapes are changing due to human activities with consequences for both biodiversity and ecosystems. For single species, terrestrial mammal population densities have shown mixed responses to human pressure, with both increasing and decreasing densities reported in the literature. How the impacts of human activities on mammal populations translates into altered global density patterns remains unclear. Here we aim to disentangle the effect of human impacts on large‐scale patterns of mammal population densities using a global dataset of 6729 population density estimates for 468 mammal species (representing 59% and 44% of mammalian orders and families). We fitted a mixed effect model to explain the variation in density based on a 1‐degree resolution as a function of the human footprint index (HFI), a global proxy of direct and indirect human disturbances, while accounting for body mass, trophic level and primary productivity (normalized vegetation index; NDVI). We found a significant positive relationship between population density and HFI, where population densities were higher in areas with a higher HFI (e.g. agricultural or suburban areas – no populations were located in very high HFI urban areas) compared to areas with a low HFI (e.g. wilderness areas). We also tested the effect of the individual components of the HFI and still found a consistent positive effect. The relationships remained positive even across populations of the same species, although variability among species was high. Our results indicate shifts in mammal population densities in human modified landscapes, which is due to the combined effect of species filtering, increased resources and a possible reduction in competition and predation. Our study provides further evidence that macroecological patterns are being altered by human activities, where some species will benefit from these activities, while others will be negatively impacted or even extirpated.     

Survival of Svalbard pink-footed geese Anser brachyrhynchus in relation to winter climate, density and land-use

1. Global change may strongly affect population dynamics, but mechanisms remain elusive. Several Arctic goose species have increased considerably during the last decades. Climate, and land-use changes outside the breeding area have been invoked as causes but have not been tested. We analysed the relationships between conditions on wintering and migration staging areas, and survival in Svalbard pink-footed geese Anser brachyrhynchus. Using mark-recapture data from 14 winters (1989-2002) we estimated survival rates and tested for time trends, and effects of climate, goose density and land-use. 2. Resighting rates differed for males and females, were higher for birds recorded during the previous winter and changed smoothly over time. Survival rates did not differ between sexes, varied over time with a nonsignificant negative trend, and were higher for the first interval after marking (0.88-0.97) than afterwards (0.74-0.93). Average survival estimates were 0.967 (SE 0.026) for the first and 0.861 (SE 0.023) for all later survival intervals. 3. We combined 16 winter and spring climate covariates into two principal components axes. F1 was related to warm/wet winters and an early spring on the Norwegian staging areas and F2 to dry/cold winters. We expected that F1 would be positively related to survival and F2 negatively. F1 explained 23% of survival variation (F1,10=3.24; one-sided P=0.051) when alone in a model and 28% (F1,9=4.50; one-sided P=0.031) in a model that assumed a trend for survival. In contrast, neither F2 nor density, land-use, or scaring practices on important Norwegian spring staging areas had discernible effects on survival. 4. Climate change may thus affect goose population dynamics, with warmer winters and earlier springs enhancing survival and fecundity. A possible mechanism is increased food availability on Danish wintering and Norwegian staging areas. As geese are among the main herbivores in Arctic ecosystems, climate change, by increasing goose populations, may have important indirect effects on Arctic vegetation. Our study also highlights the importance of events outside the breeding area for the population dynamics of migrant species.