Hunting as a source of alien species: a European review

Hunting activities are responsible for the translocation and restocking of millions of animals throughout Europe, including the introduction of alien species. In a context of the growing use of game translocations and of increasing concern about the impact of biological invasions, our goal is to review the role of alien species introduced primarily for hunting purposes on the European scale. In particular, we explore: (1) the relative importance of game species in the context of alien species introductions; (2) the temporal evolution of the number of species introduced for hunting purposes; (3) the contribution of different taxa; (4) the pattern of introduced game species composition across countries (in terms of similarity), and (5) the underlying human demographic factors driving the diversity of introduced game species per country. According to our results, 24.3% of the mammals and 30.2% of the birds introduced into Europe during the last century were released primarily for hunting purposes, in total, 93 species (63 birds and 36 mammals), the most important taxa being Artiodactyls, Anseriformes and Galliformes. The species composition differed among countries, with a higher diversity of introduced game species in larger countries and in those with a higher human population density and proportion of hunters. This review stresses that hunting was a significant pathway for the introduction of invasive species into Europe in the last century. Since some of the game species introduced have had severe environmental impacts on many European regions, and introductions of non-native game species are still occurring, it is essential to improve regulations and increase public awareness regarding invasive game animals. This will help to preserve biodiversity and improve the sustainability of current hunting schemes in increasingly managed European ecosystems.     

Diversity and temporal variations of the Hemiptera Auchenorrhyncha fauna in the Ajaccio region (France,Corsica)

Summary

During a one-year survey of the Auchenorrhyncha fauna in a maquis habitat of the Ajaccio region (Corsica), 37 species were listed including three alien species recorded in Europe in the last decades. The standard 658 bp mitochondrial COI barcode was obtained for 32 species, including 14 species never previously barcoded. Neighbor-joining analyses confirmed the delineation for all the species. However, comparisons with available sequences from mainland Europe showed that four species presented a significant intraspecific divergence (>3%), whereas a reduced interspecific divergence was found for another set of species. Complementary studies may therefore be necessary to better assess their taxonomic levels. Three species – Euscelis lineolata Brullé, 1832 (Cicadellidae), Philaenus spumarius (Linnaeus, 1758) (Aphrophoridae) and Latilica maculipes (Melichar, 1906) (Issidae) – accounted for up to 74.3% of the total insects collected. Although taxonomic interpretations using restricted sampling and COI sequences alone are not robust, the proportion of new sequences highlight the global lack of knowledge about the Auchenorrhyncha as a whole and the potentially presence of cryptic taxa in different clades.     

Worker ants of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Myrmica rubra</Emphasis>(Hymenoptera,Formicidae) as an unusual prey of the digger wasp <Emphasis Type="Italic">Crossocerus vagabundus</Emphasis> (Hymenoptera,Crabronidae)

The digger wasp Crossocerus vagabundus (Panzer, 1798) (Hymenoptera, Crabronidae, Crabronini) hunting for workers of Myrmica rubra (Linnaeus, 1758) was recorded for the first time. Various dipterans, mostly crane flies (Tipulidae), were the only known prey for this species. The modes of wasp hunting for worker ants are described. The reasons for unusual choice of prey are discussed.     

The Economic Importance of Communal Net Hunting Among the BaAka of the Central African Republic

This article examines current net hunting practice by BaAka Pygmies of central Africa. In terms of time allocation, net hunting remains the single most important activity for the BaAka, But net hunting is only one in a range of subsistence and economic activities among which individuals switch on a daily basis. Returns from net hunting are roughly equivalent to those from competing activities. Several factors encourage the decline of net hunting and its replacement with snare hunting: enforcement of park regulations, higher individual returns to snare hunting, and greater involvement in formal employment and agriculture. However, net hunting has not been abandoned completely for several reasons: the local market demand for bushmeat is growing, numerous forest products besides meat are collected on net hunts, and economic alternatives remain irregular and unreliable.     

The Noctuoidea (Lepidoptera) described by Linnaeus

Linnaeus described 166 nominal species of Noctuoidea, of which 144 (86.7%) are currently used as valid names, 18 are synonyms, one is a homonym and three taxa remain unknown. Seven taxa were described solely from illustrations in contemporary literature. Lectotypes are designated for 139 (87.4%) of the 159 remaining taxa, 122 of them from the Linnaean collection in London, 13 from the Queen Ludovica Ulrica's collection in Uppsala, Sweden, and four from other contemporary collections. Two Linnaean senior synonyms are introduced: Hada plebeja comb. nov. (Linnaeus, 1761) for the current H. nana (Hufnagel, 1766) and Oeonistis altica (Linnaeus, 1768) comb. nov. for Oe. entella (Cramer, 1779). Erebus occiduus (Linnaeus, 1758) syn. nov. is a junior subjective synonym of E. crepuscularis (Linnaeus, 1758); L. marmorides (Cramer, 1775) Stat. rev. should be reinstated for Letis occidua auct. In two species pairs the Linnaean names have been interpreted incorrectly. The lectotype designation of Phalaena prasinana Linnaeus, 1758, by Lempke (1947) is invalid because the specimen is not syntypic. According to the new lectotype, Pseudoips prasinanus (Linnaeus, 1758) comb. nov. replaces P. faganus (Fabricius, 1781), and Bena bicolorana (Fuessly, 1775) comb. nov. is available for the other species. Abrostola triplasia (Linnaeus, 1758) Stat. rev. replaces A. trigemina (Werneburg, 1864), and for the other species A. triparlila (Hufnagel, 1766) should be reinstated. One neotype designation [Eilema complanum (Linnaeus, 1758)], one lectotype designation [Xylena exsolela (Linnaeus, 1758)], and precedence of a junior synonym [Ophideres fullonia (Clerck, 1764)] over its unused senior synonym are to be referred to the ICZN; until their decision the current usage must be followed. The identity of Mesapamea secalis (Linnaeus, 1758) stat. rev. corresponds to current usage, but, under presence of syntypic material, the recent neotype designation by Lempke (1988) will be referred to the ICZN. The revision is mainly based on the discovery that the insect pins and the way specimens are prepared give evidence of the authenticity of the material. Contrary to the views of earlier authors, Linnaeus had his labels with the specific name pinned against the bottom of the drawers by the specimen pin. Because the labels have been moved twice during subsequent curations, their present position is less indicative of the authenticity than has been previously suggested. The origin of the so-called n-labels is discussed.     

First record of the goby Buenia affinis Iljin, 1930 (Gobiidae) from the Aegean Sea and Sea of Marmara

Fourteen species of aphids (Hemiptera: Aphidoidea) are recorded as new to Saudi Arabia. These are: Aphis coreopsidis (Thomas, 1878); Aphis illinoisensis Shimer, 1866; Baizongia pistaceae (Linnaeus, 1767); Capitophorus elaeagni (del Guercio, 1894); Dysaphis plantaginea (Passerini, 1860); Eucarazzia elegans (Ferrari, 1872); Geoica lucifuga (Zehntner, 1897); Hayhurstia atriplicis (Linnaeus, 1761); Macrosiphoniella absinthii (Linnaeus, 1758); Macrosiphoniella sanborni (Gillette, 1908); Smynthurodes betae Westwood, 1849; Uroleucon cichorii (Koch, 1855), and Wahlgreniella nervata (Gillette, 1908). Among these, three species, i.e. A. coreopsidis, A. illinoisensis, and W. nervata are alien species.     

Macro-invertebrate predators of freshwater pulmonate snails in Africa,with particular reference to Appasus grassei (Heteroptera) and Procambarus clarkii (Decapoda)

A range of African and alien macro-invertebrates has been reported preying on freshwater pulmonate snails, including those that serve as intermediate hosts for bloodflukes of the genus Schistosoma. Predation by five molluscivorous taxa is reviewed here: indigenous leeches (Glossiphoniidae), marsh fly larvae (Sciomyzidae), waterbugs (Belostomatidae), crabs (Potamonautidae) and invasive crayfish (Astacidae). Common features are a lack of prey specificity but clear prey-size specificity. Attention is drawn to the ability of invasive snail species (Physidae and Lymnaeidae) to avoid predation by several of these taxa. Evidence suggests that only the alien invasive crayfish Procambarus clarkii has potential as a snail biocontrol agent, but that its use should not be encouraged.     

Relationship Between Small-game Hunting and Carnivore Diversity in Central Spain

Small-game hunting plays an important economic role in central Spain and some game species are key food resources for threatened predators. Small carnivores may reduce numbers of important game species. To alleviate predation pressure on game populations, management is often focused on predator control. Control methods can be non-selective, and so could potentially have a negative impact on non-target carnivore species, affecting carnivore guild composition and diversity. Using data on carnivore diversity in 70 quadrants (5 × 5 km) in a large area of central Spain with two main land uses (small-game hunting and a mixture of big-game hunting and forestry), we assessed how game management was related to carnivore diversity. Carnivore species richness was significantly lower in those areas managed for small-game hunting than in areas where other land uses predominated. The apparently least affected species by predator control was the red fox (Vulpes vulpes), the main target species of predator control. Results suggested that low carnivore species richness was linked to small-game hunting activities, which was probably associated with non-selective predator control practices. Therefore, in order to reconcile carnivore conservation and economic goals it is imperative to develop and to evaluate selective predator control techniques.     

Global Patterns and Drivers of Avian Extinctions at the Species and Subspecies Level

Birds have long fascinated scientists and travellers, so their distribution and abundance through time have been better documented than those of other organisms. Many bird species are known to have gone extinct, but information on subspecies extinctions has never been synthesised comprehensively. We reviewed the timing, spatial patterns, trends and causes of avian extinctions on a global scale, identifying 279 ultrataxa (141 monotypic species and 138 subspecies of polytypic species) that have gone extinct since 1500. Species extinctions peaked in the early 20^th century, then fell until the mid 20^th century, and have subsequently accelerated. However, extinctions of ultrataxa peaked in the second half of the 20^th century. This trend reflects a consistent decline in the rate of extinctions on islands since the beginning of the 20^th century, but an acceleration in the extinction rate on continents. Most losses (78.7% of species and 63.0% of subspecies) occurred on oceanic islands. Geographic foci of extinctions include the Hawaiian Islands (36 taxa), mainland Australia and islands (29 taxa), the Mascarene Islands (27 taxa), New Zealand (22 taxa) and French Polynesia (19 taxa). The major proximate drivers of extinction for both species and subspecies are invasive alien species (58.2% and 50.7% of species and subspecies, respectively), hunting (52.4% and 18.8%) and agriculture, including non-timber crops and livestock farming (14.9% and 31.9%). In general, the distribution and drivers of subspecific extinctions are similar to those for species extinctions. However, our finding that, when subspecies are considered, the extinction rate has accelerated in recent decades is both novel and alarming.     

Ulva (Chlorophyta,Ulvales) Biodiversity in the North Adriatic Sea (Mediterranean,Italy): Cryptic Species and New Introductions

Ulva Linnaeus (Ulvophyceae, Ulvales) is a genus of green algae widespread in different aquatic environments. Members of this genus show a very simple morphology and a certain degree of phenotypic plasticity, heavily influenced by environmental conditions, making difficult the delineation of species by morphological features alone. Most studies dealing with Ulva biodiversity in Mediterranean waters have been based only on morphological characters and a modern taxonomic revision of this genus in the Mediterranean is not available. We report here the results of an investigation on the diversity of Ulva in the North Adriatic Sea based on molecular analyses. Collections from three areas, two of which subject to intense shipping traffic, were examined, as well as historical collections of Ulva stored in the Herbarium Patavinum of the University of Padova, Italy. Molecular analyses based on partial sequences of the rbcL and tufA genes revealed the presence of six different species, often with overlapping morphologies: U. californica Wille, U. flexuosa Wulfen, U. rigida C. Agardh, U. compressa Linnaeus, U. pertusa Kjellman, and one probable new taxon. U. californica is a new record for the Mediterranean and U. pertusa is a new record for the Adriatic. Partial sequences obtained from historical collections show that most of the old specimens are referable to U. rigida. No specimens referable to the two alien species were found among the old herbarium specimens. The results indicate that the number of introduced seaweed species and their impact on Mediterranean communities have been underestimated, due to the difficulties in species identification of morphologically simple taxa as Ulva.     

A phylogenomic tree inferred with an inexpensive PCR-generated probe kit resolves higher-level relationships among Neptis butterflies (Nymphalidae: Limenitidinae)

Recent advances in obtaining reduced representation libraries for next-generation sequencing permit phylogenomic analysis of species-rich, recently diverged taxa. In this study, we performed sequence capture with homemade PCR-generated probes to study diversification among closely related species in a large insect genus to examine the utility of this method. We reconstructed the phylogeny of Neptis Fabricius, a large and poorly studied nymphalid butterfly genus distributed throughout the Old World. We inferred relationships among 108 Neptis samples using 89 loci totaling up to 84 519 bp per specimen. Our taxon sample focused on Palearctic, Oriental and Australasian species, but included 8 African species and outgroups from 5 related genera. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian analyses yielded identical trees with full support for almost all nodes. We confirmed that Neptis is not monophyletic because Lasippa heliodore (Fabricius) and Phaedyma amphion (Linnaeus) are nested within the genus, and we redefine species groups for Neptis found outside of Africa. The statistical support of our results demonstrates that the probe set we employed is useful for inferring phylogenetic relationships among Neptis species and likely has great value for intrageneric phylogenetic reconstruction of Lepidoptera. Based on our results, we revise the following two taxa: Neptis heliodore comb. rev. and Neptis amphion comb. rev.     

Can herbarium records be used to map alien species invasion and native species expansion over the past 100 years?

Aim To determine if the temporal and spatial pattern of alien plant invasion and native plant expansion can be observed using 100 years of herbarium data from Oklahoma, USA, and to eliminate herbarium collection biases in such analyses. Location Oklahoma, USA. Methods Using herbarium records from the Oklahoma Vascular Plants Database from 1903 to 2004, we reconstructed the spatial and temporal collection history of two alien invasive taxa (Lonicera japonica and Tamarix spp.) and three native expansive species (Ambrosia psilostachya, Amphiachyris dracunculoides and Juniperus virginiana). To compare the overall collecting trend, groups of native non‐expansive taxa were selected as counterparts. We recorded the year of the first collection in each township in Oklahoma for all taxa. The cumulative number of occupied townships was log‐transformed, plotted against time and modelled with linear regression. The slope of the linear regression represented collection trend over time for the non‐expansive counterpart group. However, for the invasive and expansive species, the regression slope represented the collection effort plus the invasion or expansion rate. We calculated the proportion of invasive and expansive species to non‐expansive species by dividing the cumulative number of townships for each invasive or expansive species by the cumulative number of townships occupied by the counterpart group (proportion curve). Results Maps of the collection records of invasive and expansive taxa illustrated no discernible spatial invasion or expansion pattern. The slopes of the linear regression for alien invasive taxa were significantly steeper than those of their associated native non‐expansive counterparts, indicating an increase in abundance. Juniperus virginiana, L. japonica and Tamarix spp. exhibited one or more periods during which they were collected at a disproportionately higher rate than their native non‐expansive counterparts. Main conclusions Patterns of species invasion and expansion in Oklahoma were detected using techniques developed for regions with longer collecting plant histories. The proportion curve analysis eliminated some biases inherent in herbarium data by reducing the effect of collecting effort. Both the regression model and proportion curve analyses illustrate the temporal invasion patterns of alien invasive species. The native species did not show a clear expansion pattern. The information found in recently established herbaria may not be sensitive enough to detect the increase in abundance of native species.     

湖北蕨类植物新记录

该文报道了湖北蕨类植物1个新记录属:冷蕨属(Cystopteris Bernhardi)及对应的新记录种宝兴冷蕨(Cystopteris moupinensis Franchet); 4个新记录种:台湾剑蕨(Loxogramme formosana Nakai)、扇羽阴地蕨[Botrychium lunaria (Linnaeus) Swartz]、耳状紫柄蕨[Pseudophegopteris aurita (Hooker) Ching]、巢形鳞毛蕨[Dryopteris transmorrisonense (Hayata) Hayata]; 2个新记录变种:尾头凤尾蕨(Pteris oshimensis var.paraemeiensis Ching)和西藏粉背蕨[Aleuritopteris subvillosa var. tibetica (ChingS. K. Wu) H. S. Kung]。这些蕨类新记录在湖北的发现,大大丰富了湖北的植物区系及物种多样性,同时对这些蕨类的经济价值或药用价值进行了简要分析,为其资源的进一步合理开发和利用提供了一些理论依据。     

New liverwort records for Vietnam

A short collecting expedition to Vietnam in 2016 yielded 700 specimens of 170 liverwort species of which 79 were new to the flora of Vietnam, including 43 species new to Indochina. Many of the newly recorded species have meta-Himalayan distributions (that predicts occurrence of these taxa in the areas of north-west Vietnam situated in the south-easternmost spurs of the Himalaya). Some species were recorded based on the study of living material, permitting the examination of oil body characteristics for Riccardia and Calypogeia. The known taxonomic liverwort diversity of Vietnam is currently 379 taxa, estimated to represent ca 80% of the actual taxonomic diversity in the country.     

Crayfish invasion facilitates dispersal of plants and invertebrates by gulls

相似文献   

Chromosome numbers for three species of medicinal leeches (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Hirudo</Emphasis> spp.)

Karyological preparations were made from the testisacs of three medicinal leech species Hirudo medicinalis Linnaeus, 1758, H. verbana Carena, 1820 and H. orientalis Utevsky & Trontelj, 2005 . The samples originated from different populations in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Russian Federation, Ukraine and Uzbekistan. The chromosome numbers were determined both from mitotic and meiotic stages of spermatogenesis using the propionic haematoxylin staining technique. All three species were found to have different haploid chromosome numbers: H. medicinalis 14, H. verbana 13 and H. orientalis 12, thus corroborating the validity of these taxa. The chromosomes can be classified as meta-, submetacentric and acrocentric. The chromosome numbers obtained are similar to that of the related species Haemopis sanguisuga (Linnaeus, 1758), which has 13 pairs.     

Crossing the divide: gene flow produces intergeneric hybrid in feral transgenic creeping bentgrass population

Gene flow is the most frequently expressed public concern related to the deregulation of transgenic events ( Snow 2002 ; Ellstrand 2003 ). However, assessing the potential for transgene escape is complex because it depends on the opportunities for unintended gene flow, and establishment and persistence of the transgene in the environment ( Warwick et al. 2008 ). Creeping bentgrass (Agrostis stolonifera L.), a turfgrass species widely used on golf courses, has been genetically engineered to be resistant to glyphosate, a nonselective herbicide. Outcrossing species, such as creeping bentgrass (CB), which have several compatible species, have greater chances for gene escape and spontaneous hybridization (i.e. natural, unassisted sexual reproduction between taxa in the field), which challenges transgene containment. Several authors have emphasized the need for evidence of spontaneous hybridization to infer the potential for gene flow ( Armstrong et al. 2005 ). Here we report that a transgenic intergeneric hybrid has been produced as result of spontaneous hybridization of a feral‐regulated transgenic pollen receptor (CB) and a nontransgenic pollen donor (rabbitfoot grass, RF, Polypogon monspeliensis (L.) Desf.). We identified an off‐type transgenic seedling and confirmed it to be CB × RF intergeneric hybrid. This first report of a transgenic intergeneric hybrid produced in situ with a regulated transgenic event demonstrates the importance of considering all possible avenues for transgene spread at the landscape level before planting a regulated transgenic crop in the field. Spontaneous hybridization adds a level of complexity to transgene monitoring, containment, mitigation and remediation programmes.     

Abundance and Distribution of Native and Alien Grasses in a “Cerrado” (Brazilian Savanna) Biological Reserve1

Several species of African grasses brought to Brazil as cattle forage have spread widely, outcompeting native herb species. The open forms of Brazilian savanna (“campo cerrado” and “campo sujo”) are the most affected by such invasions, because their structure is open, permitting enough sunlight into the lower strata. The invasion of alien forage grasses occurs in almost every cerrado nature reserve. This study was carried out in the “Cerrado de Hmas Biological Reserve”, Pirassununga, São Paulo State, Brazil, with the following objectives: (a) to compare the abundance of native and alien grass species; (b) to verify the importance of such alien grasses in the community; (c) to identity distribution patterns for the alien grass species in a gradient from the edge (highly disturbed) to the center (less disturbed) of the reserve; and (d) to explore the distribution of native and alien grasses in the search for possible competitive interactions. Using the “point method,” a total of 260 points was sampled and 52 species were recorded. The four most frequent species (FA = absolute frequency) were two native (Echinolaena inflexa [Poir.J Chase [FA = 38.85%] and Diandrostachya chrysotrix [Nees] Jacues Felix [FA = 15.38%]) and two alien African species (Melinis minutiflora Beauv. [FA = 33.08%] and Brachiaria decumbens Stapf [FA = 13.85%]). M. minutiflora and E. inflexa had higher values of absolute vigor (67.69 and 59.62%, respectively), relative vigor (28.16 and 24.80%, respectively), and cover (100.77 and 98.47, respectively), indicating higher biomasses and densities and their dominance in the community. B. decumbens presented the highest number of contacts per point, showing the highest stratification. To detect possible edge–center distribution gradients, correspondence analysis was done, initially using all the recorded species and subsequently only the four more frequent grasses, with similar results: (a) the alien grasses, especially M. minutiflora, did not show a distinct distribution gradient from edge to center, but occurred over the whole reserve; (b) no distinct ecotonal band around the reserve (edge–belt) was detected, the whole reserve seeming to be “ecotonal”; and (c) E. inflexa and M. minutiflora showed similar phytosociological patterns, and spatial distribution; association between these two species was statistically significant.     

Barriers to hybridisation and their conservation implications for a highly threatened Australian fish species

Hybridisation and introgression are natural phenomena that may lead to the transfer of adaptive alleles from one species to another and increased species diversity. At the same time, hybridisation and subsequent introgression threaten many species world‐wide through the loss of genetic and species diversity. In Australia, introgressive hybridisation between native and alien species has not typically been considered a significant threat to native biodiversity because of the taxonomic distance between native and alien biota. However, many native fish have been introduced outside their natural range. Recently, four taxa in the genus Melanotaenia have been nationally listed as threatened due to introgressive hybridisation with introduced Melanotaenia splendida. We examined pre‐ and post‐zygotic barriers to hybridisation between M. splendida and one of these threatened taxa—Running River rainbowfish (RRR)—to assess the potential for hybridisation to occur. We used dichotomous mate choice experiments to examine pre‐zygotic barriers and mating experiments to examine post‐zygotic barriers. Size was not a significant predictor of the proportion of time subjects spent with a potential mate, nor was there any significant difference in the amount of time subjects spent with potential mates of their own or the opposite species. Eggs from hybrid pairings with female RRR had a slightly higher hatching rate than those from hybrid pairings with female M. splendida, but neither were significantly different from intraspecies crosses. We could not identify any definite barriers to hybridisation, demonstrating that the introduction of “native” fish species outside their natural range poses a higher risk of hybridisation than previously thought. We call for better education around the consequences of moving “native” fish and the development of rapid response plans to deal with recently established alien populations of Australian fish species in order to prevent future extinctions due to introgressive hybridisation.     

Population dynamics in a guild of four Mediterranean ungulates: density‐dependence,environmental effects and inter‐specific interactions

Population fluctuations in ungulates are driven by both intrinsic and extrinsic factors. Available information, however, mainly refers to arctic, temperate and African ungulate populations, while the dynamics of Mediterranean species, exposed to a milder climate, is known to a much lesser extent. Here we studied the population dynamics of four wild ungulate species in the Castelporziano Preserve near Rome, Italy, as obtained from detailed bag counts from hunting drives during the period 1878–1986: the Italian roe deer Capreolus capreolus italicus, the Maremma wild boar Sus scrofa majori (both endemic to Italy), the native red deer Cervus elaphus, and the alien fallow deer Dama dama. We also considered the effects of the presence of another alien ungulate, the nilgai Boselaphus tragocamelus. This ungulate community experienced an accidental ‘removal experiment’ when, during World War II, red deer and nilgai were exterminated. This event and the length of the time series allowed us to test two main hypotheses: 1) that the complexity level of the ungulate community affects the strength of intra‐ and inter‐specific competition; and 2) that in Mediterranean environments intra‐ and inter‐specific interactions are stronger than climate forcing. Statistical methods ranged from state‐space‐modelling, GLM analysis and structural equation models. The results indicated that direct intra‐specific density dependence played a relevant role for all species, and was stronger after the removal. A complex pattern of species interactions was however revealed; fallow deer had a negative effect on roe deer population, while roe deer had an apparent positive effect on red deer and wild boar, possibly mediated by environmental factors. Nilgai appeared to facilitate all deer species. The results of the analysis also confirmed that at present climate appears to play a minor role with respect to density dependence; however, the increasing aridity of the Mediterranean area could change this picture in coming decades.