French broom (Teline monspessulana) invasion in south-central Chile depends on factors operating at different spatial scales

The interaction between plant attributes, environmental factors and the history of human intervention determines which species show a more invasive behavior and which areas are more likely to be invaded. Identifying which factors favor the invasion and which constraint it, remains an essential goal for understanding the process of invasion and to provide a stronger scientific basis for designing management actions to reduce susceptibility to invasion. In this paper we analyze the relative role of different environmental factors in plant invasion, in particular the comparison between human versus climatic and biotic variables at different spatial scales. Furthermore, we show how these factors interact to influence the distribution and abundance of an invasive plant. We have built mixed models to explain the presence and abundance of a renowned invasive species in the south-central area of Chile, Teline monspessulana (French broom, Fabaceae). We recorded the presence and cover of this invasive shrub in a series of transects along the main roads of the study area. For each transect we recorded variables at different spatial scales related to climate and land use. We found that the presence and cover of T. monspessulana are strongly related to proximity to roads, urban areas and locations with higher rainfall. Although this shrub is present in most of the landscape, it is most abundant in shrublands and forest plantations. In a complex human-dominated landscape matrix, shrublands and forest plantations act as a source of propagules from which new areas can be invaded. Interestingly, the presence of this species can be better predicted by combining predictors taken at two hierarchical levels, the so-called transect and plot scales, whereas the species abundance only depends on factors at the plot level. The presence and abundance of this species is highly dependent on human disturbance, and the occurrence of certain landscape elements closely linked to land management is critical to the performance of this species. Maintaining a dense tree canopy cover and reducing the use of fire could help reduce the rate of expansion of this species across the landscape.     

Predicting incursion of plant invaders into Kruger National Park, South Africa: the interplay of general drivers and species-specific factors

Background

Overcoming boundaries is crucial for incursion of alien plant species and their successful naturalization and invasion within protected areas. Previous work showed that in Kruger National Park, South Africa, this process can be quantified and that factors determining the incursion of invasive species can be identified and predicted confidently. Here we explore the similarity between determinants of incursions identified by the general model based on a multispecies assemblage, and those identified by species-specific models. We analyzed the presence and absence of six invasive plant species in 1.0×1.5 km segments along the border of the park as a function of environmental characteristics from outside and inside the KNP boundary, using two data-mining techniques: classification trees and random forests.

Principal Findings

The occurrence of Ageratum houstonianum, Chromolaena odorata, Xanthium strumarium, Argemone ochroleuca, Opuntia stricta and Lantana camara can be reliably predicted based on landscape characteristics identified by the general multispecies model, namely water runoff from surrounding watersheds and road density in a 10 km radius. The presence of main rivers and species-specific combinations of vegetation types are reliable predictors from inside the park.

Conclusions

The predictors from the outside and inside of the park are complementary, and are approximately equally reliable for explaining the presence/absence of current invaders; those from the inside are, however, more reliable for predicting future invasions. Landscape characteristics determined as crucial predictors from outside the KNP serve as guidelines for management to enact proactive interventions to manipulate landscape features near the KNP to prevent further incursions. Predictors from the inside the KNP can be used reliably to identify high-risk areas to improve the cost-effectiveness of management, to locate invasive plants and target them for eradication.     

Do exotic pine plantations favour the spread of invasive herbivorous mammals in Patagonia?

Changes in land use patterns and vegetation can trigger ecological change in occupancy and community composition. Among the potential ecological consequences of land use change is altered susceptibility to occupancy by invasive species. We investigated the responses of three introduced mammals (red deer, Cervus elaphus; wild boar, Sus scrofa; and European hare, Lepus europaeus) to replacement of native vegetation by exotic pine plantations in the Patagonian forest‐steppe ecotone using camera‐trap surveys (8633 trap‐days). We used logistic regression models to relate species presence with habitat variables at stand and landscape scales. Red deer and wild boar used pine plantations significantly more frequently than native vegetation. In contrast, occurrence of European hares did not differ between pine plantations and native vegetation, although hares were recorded more frequently in firebreaks than in plantations or native vegetation. Presence of red deer and wild boar was positively associated with cover of pine plantations at the landscape scale, and negatively associated with mid‐storey cover and diversity at the stand scale. European hares preferred sites with low arboreal and mid‐storey cover. Our results suggest that pine plantations promote increased abundances of invasive species whose original distributions are associated with woodlands (red deer and wild boar), and could act as source or pathways for invasive species to new areas.     

Spatial Pattern of Attacks of the Invasive Woodwasp Sirex noctilio,at Landscape and Stand Scales

Invasive insect pests are responsible for important damage to native and plantation forests, when population outbreaks occur. Understanding the spatial pattern of attacks by forest pest populations is essential to improve our understanding of insect population dynamics and for predicting attack risk by invasives or planning pest management strategies. The woodwasp Sirex noctilio is an invasive woodwasp that has become probably the most important pest of pine plantations in the Southern Hemisphere. Our aim was to study the spatial dynamics of S. noctilio populations in Southern Argentina. Specifically we describe: (1) the spatial patterns of S. noctilio outbreaks and their relation with environmental factors at a landscape scale; and (2) characterize the spatial pattern of attacked trees at the stand scale. We surveyed the spatial distribution of S. noctilio outbreaks in three pine plantation landscapes, and we assessed potential associations with topographic variables, habitat characteristics, and distance to other outbreaks. We also looked at the spatial distribution of attacked trees in 20 stands with different levels of infestation, and assessed the relationship of attacks with stand composition and management. We found that the spatial pattern of pine stands with S. noctilio outbreaks at the landscape scale is influenced mainly by the host species present, slope aspect, and distance to other outbreaks. At a stand scale, there is strong aggregation of attacked trees in stands with intermediate infestation levels, and the degree of attacks is influenced by host species and plantation management. We conclude that the pattern of S. noctilio damage at different spatial scales is influenced by a combination of both inherent population dynamics and the underlying patterns of environmental factors. Our results have important implications for the understanding and management of invasive insect outbreaks in forest systems.     

Bird assemblages in pine plantations replacing native ecosystems in NW Patagonia

Forest plantations of exotic conifers represent an important economic activity in NW Patagonia, Argentina. However, there is a remarkable lack of information on the impact of forestry on native biodiversity. We analyzed the effect of Pinus ponderosa plantations on bird communities, considering different stand management practices (dense and sparse tree covers), and different landscape contexts where they are planted (Austrocedrus chilensis forest and steppe). Ultimately we wished to assess in which way plantations may be designed and managed to improve biodiversity conservation. Bird richness and abundance did not change significantly in the steppe, although community composition did, and was partially replaced by a new community, similar to that of ecotonal forests. In contrast, in the A. chilensis forest areas, species richness decreased in dense plantations, but bird community composition remained relatively constant when replacing the native forest with pine plantations. Also, in A. chilensis forest, stand management practices aiming at maintaining low tree densities permit the presence of many bird species from the original habitat. In the steppe area in turn, both dense and sparse plantations are unsuitable for most steppe species, thus it is necessary to manage them at higher scales, maintaining the connectivity of the native matrix to prevent the fragmentation of bird populations. We conclude that pine plantations can provide habitat for a substantial number of native bird species, and this feature varies both with management practices and with the landscape context of areas where afforestation occurs.     

Commercially Important Trees as Invasive Aliens – Towards Spatially Explicit Risk Assessment at a National Scale

Alien species that are desirable and commercially important in parts of the landscape, but damaging invaders in other parts, present a special challenge for managers, planners, and policy-makers. Objective methods are needed for identifying areas where control measures should be focussed. We analysed the distribution of forestry plantations and invasive (self-sown) stands of Acacia mearnsii and Pinus spp. in South Africa; these two taxa account for 60% of the area under commercial plantations and 54% of the area invaded by alien trees and shrubs. The distribution of commercial forestry plantations and invasive stands of these taxa were mapped and the data was digitised and stored as Geographic Information System (GIS) (Arc/Info) layers. A series of environmental parameters were derived from GIS layers of climate, topography, geology, land use, and natural vegetation. The current distribution of the two taxa was subdivided into three groups according to the degree of invasion, planting history and the precision of the data collection. We used regression-tree analysis to relate, for each taxon, the distribution of invasive stands with environmental variables, and to derive habitat suitability maps for future invasion. The current distribution of invasive stands in South Africa was largely influenced by climatic factors. At a national scale, the distribution of large commercial plantations was a poor predictor of areas invaded by both taxa. Using environmental factors identified by the regression trees, we found that 6.6% and 9.8% of natural habitats currently not invaded and untransformed by urbanisation or agriculture are suitable for invasion by Pinus spp. and A. mearnsii, respectively. We then derived guidelines for policy on alien plant management based on vegetation type, degree of transformation, extent of invasion, and the risk of future alien spread. These factors were used to identify demarcated areas where these alien species can be grown with little risk of invasions, and areas where special measures are needed to manage spread from plantations.     

Cross-scale management strategies for optimal control of trees invading from source plantations

Biological invasion by non-native tree species can transform landscapes, and as a consequence, has received growing attention from researchers and managers alike. This problem is driven primarily by the naturalisation and invasion of tree species escaping from cultivation or forestry plantations. Furthermore, these invasions can be strongly influenced by the land-use matrix of the surrounding region, specific management of the source populations, and environmental conditions that influence seed dispersal or habitat quality for the invader. A major unresolved challenge for managing tree invasions in landscapes is how management should be deployed to contain or slow the spread of invading populations from one or more sources (e.g. plantations). We develop a spatial simulation model to test: (1) how to best prioritise the control of invasive tree populations spatially to slow or contain the biological invader when habitat quality varies in the landscape, and (2) how to allocate control effort among different management units when trees spread from many source populations. We first show that to slow down spread effectively, management strategy is less important than management effort. We then identify the conditions affecting the relative performance of different management strategies. At the landscape scale, targeting peripheral stands consistently yielded the best results whereas at the regional scale, management strategies needed to account for both habitat quality and tree life-history. Overall, our findings demonstrate that knowledge of how habitat affects tree life-history stages can improve management to contain or slow tree invasions by improving the spatial match between management effort and efficacy.     

Induction of extrafloral nectar depends on herbivore type in invasive and native Chinese tallow seedlings

Although induced defenses are widespread in nature, and a potentially important strategy used by invasive plants, it is unclear how induced defenses vary among populations and whether the intensity and duration of induced defenses depends on herbivore type. For invasive plants, low herbivore loads in their introduced ranges can lead to differences in herbivore defense compared to their native ranges, but we currently know little about how induced defenses vary among native and invasive populations. We conducted a greenhouse experiment to examine variation in one type of induced defense, extrafloral nectar (EFN) production, among native and invasive populations of Chinese tallow tree, Triadica sebifera. We experimentally manipulated herbivory from an exotic generalist scale insect, a native generalist caterpillar, both herbivores, or neither and then examined EFN production by Triadica. Damage from leaf-chewing caterpillars resulted in strongly induced EFN in both native and invasive populations while damage from phloem-feeding scales did not. Extrafloral nectar production and dissolved solute content peaked 4 days after caterpillar herbivory for both native and invasive populations. Number and proportion of leaves producing EFN, EFN volume and concentration of dissolved solutes were similar among native and invasive populations. These results suggest that selection for indirect defenses may be different than selection for other defenses in the introduced ranges of invasive plants, as constitutive and induced EFN production is retained in invasive populations.     

Using tree population size structures to assess the impacts of cattle grazing and eucalypts plantations in subtropical South America

To evaluate the effects of distinct management of the matrix in which forest fragments are found upon plant populations thriving in forest remnants in south Brazil, we assessed the conservation status of populations of four woody species (Campomanesia rhombea, Diospyros incontans, Myrciaria cuspidata and Sebastiania commersoniana) through analyses of size structure. Analyzes were carried out at two scales. At a local scale, we consider populations in fragments surrounded by pastures or eucalypts forest plantations, and at a regional scale we also consider larger forest tracts taken as reference areas (Rio Grande do Sul Forest Inventory databank). Population size structures were summarized using the symmetry of height distributions. Small individual size classes prevailed at the local scale in fragments surrounded by eucalypts plantations, whereas in areas exposed to cattle ranching, populations of the same species consistently lack small individuals. At the regional scale, populations in fragments surrounded by pastures presented greater skewness (prevalence of small plants) than populations in reference areas, while populations surrounded by eucalypts plantations presented intermediate skewness. These results reinforce the notion that plantations have a higher conservation value for forest ecosystems than other commercial land uses, like cattle ranching.     

Grazing and an invasive grass confound spatial pattern of exotic and native grassland plant species richness

Previous work has shown exotic and native plant species richness are negatively correlated at fine spatial scales and positively correlated at broad spatial scales. Grazing and invasive plant species can influence plant species richness, but the effects of these disturbances across spatial scales remain untested. We collected species richness data for both native and exotic plants from five spatial scales (0.5–3000 m²) in a nested, modified Whittaker plot design from severely grazed and ungrazed North American tallgrass prairie. We also recorded the abundance of an abundant invasive grass, tall fescue (Schedonorus phoenix (Scop.) Holub), at the 0.5-m² scale. We used linear mixed-effect regression to test relationships between plant species richness, tall fescue abundance, and grazing history at five spatial scales. At no scale was exotic and native species richness linearly related, but exotic species richness at all scales was greater in grazed tracts than ungrazed tracts. Native species richness declined with increasing tall fescue abundance at all five spatial scales, but exotic species richness increased with tall fescue abundance at all but the broadest spatial scales. Severe grazing did not reduce native species richness at any spatial scale. We posit that invasion of tall fescue in this working landscape of originally native grassland plants modifies species richness-spatial scale relationships observed in less disturbed systems. Tall fescue invasion constitutes a unique biotic effect on plant species richness at broad spatial scales.     

Recent range expansion and agricultural landscape heterogeneity have only minimal effect on the spatial genetic structure of the plant pathogenic fungus Mycosphaerella fijiensis

Understanding how geographical and environmental features affect genetic variation at both the population and individual levels is crucial in biology, especially in the case of pathogens. However, distinguishing between these factors and the effects of historical range expansion on spatial genetic structure remains challenging. In the present study, we investigated the case of Mycosphaerella fijiensis—a plant pathogenic fungus that has recently colonized an agricultural landscape characterized by the presence of potential barriers to gene flow, including several commercial plantations in which disease control practises such as the use of fungicides are applied frequently, and low host density areas. We first genotyped 300 isolates sampled at a global scale on untreated plants in two dimensions over a 50 × 80-km area. Using two different clustering algorithms, no genetic structure was detected in the studied area, suggesting expansion of large populations and/or no influence of potential barriers. Second, we investigated the potential effect of disease control practises on M. fijiensis diversity by comparing populations sampled in commercial vs food-crop plantations. At this local scale, we detected significantly higher allelic richness inside commercial plantations compared with the surrounding food-crop plantation populations. Analysis of molecular variance indicated that 99% of the total genetic variance occurred within populations. We discuss the suggestion that high population size and/or high migration rate between populations might be responsible for the absence of any effect of disease control practises on genetic diversity and differentiation.     

Explaining variability in the production of seed and allergenic pollen by invasive <Emphasis Type="Italic">Ambrosia artemisiifolia</Emphasis> across Europe

To better manage invasive populations, it is vital to understand the environmental drivers underlying spatial variation in demographic performance of invasive individuals and populations. The invasive common ragweed, Ambrosia artemisiifolia, has severe adverse effects on agriculture and human health, due to its vast production of seeds and allergenic pollen. Here, we identify the scale and nature of environmental factors driving individual performance of A. artemisiifolia, and assess their relative importance. We studied 39 populations across the European continent, covering different climatic and habitat conditions. We found that plant size is the most important determinant in variation of per-capita seed and pollen production. Using plant volume as a measure of individual performance, we found that the local environment (i.e. the site) is far more influential for plant volume (explaining 25% of all spatial variation) than geographic position (regional level; 8%) or the neighbouring vegetation (at the plot level; 4%). An overall model including environmental factors at all scales performed better (27%), including the weather (bigger plants in warm and wet conditions), soil type (smaller plants on soils with more sand), and highlighting the negative effects of altitude, neighbouring vegetation and bare soil. Pollen and seed densities varied more than 200-fold between sites, with highest estimates in Croatia, Romania and Hungary. Pollen densities were highest on arable fields, while highest seed densities were found along infrastructure, both significantly higher than on ruderal sites. We discuss implications of these findings for the spatial scale of management interventions against A. artemisiifolia.     

Challenges in predicting invasive reservoir hosts of emerging pathogens: mapping Rhododendron ponticum as a foliar host for Phytophthora ramorum and Phytophthora kernoviae in the UK

Invasive species can increase the susceptibility of ecosystems to disease by acting as reservoir hosts for pathogens. Invasive hosts are often sparsely recorded and not in equilibrium, so predicting their spatial distributions and overlap with other hosts is problematic. We applied newly developed methods for modelling the distribution of invasive species to the invasive shrub Rhododendron ponticum—a foliar reservoir host for the Phytophthora oomycete plant pathogens, P. ramorum and P. kernoviae, that threaten woodland and heathland habitat in Scotland. We compiled eleven datasets of biological records for R. ponticum (1,691 points, 8,455 polygons) and developed Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) models incorporating landscape, soil and climate predictors. Our models produced accurate predictions of current suitable R. ponticum habitat (training AUC = 0.838; test AUC = 0.838) that corresponded well with population performance (areal cover). Continuous broad-leaved woodland cover, low elevation (<400 m a.s.l.) and intermediate levels of soil moisture (or Enhanced Vegetation Index) favoured presence of R. ponticum. The high coincidence of suitable habitat with both core native woodlands (54 % of woodlands) and plantations of another sporulation host, Larix kaempferi (64 % of plantations) suggests a high potential for spread of Phytophthora infection to woodland mediated by R. ponticum. Incorporating non-equilibrium modelling methods did not improve habitat suitability predictions of this invasive host, possibly because, as a long-standing invader, R. ponticum has filled more of its available habitat at this national scale than previously suspected.     

三峡库区消落带外来植物入侵与景观基质组成结构的关联性

外来物种入侵过程不仅受入侵地生境的影响,也受到周边景观基质的影响.厘清景观基质对外来入侵物种的影响,对于外来物种的入侵管控具有重要意义.本研究针对长江三峡库区消落带植物群落开展调查,评估三峡库区消落带外来植物入侵现状;在岸线以上(含消落带)2000 m范围内划分出10个景观格局尺度,采用14个指标分析景观基质组成结构;...     

Opposing forces of seed dispersal and seed predation by mammals for an invasive cactus in central Kenya

The invasive erect prickly pear cactus (Opuntia stricta) has reduced rangeland quality and altered plant communities throughout much of the globe. In central Kenya's Laikipia County, olive baboons (Papio anubis) frequently consume O. stricta fruits and subsequently disperse the seeds via defecation. Animal‐mediated seed dispersal can increase germination and subsequent survival of plants. However, consumption of seeds (seed predation) by rodents may offset the potential benefits of seed dispersal for cactus establishment by reducing the number of viable seeds. We investigated foraging preferences of a common and widely distributed small mammal—the fringe‐tailed gerbil (Gerbilliscus robustus), between O. stricta seeds deposited in baboon faeces versus control O. stricta seeds. In addition to providing evidence of seed predation on O. stricta by G. robustus, our data show that seed removal was higher (shorter time to use) for seeds within faeces than for control seeds. G. robustus clearly prefers seeds within faeces compared to control seeds. These results suggest that high abundances of rodents may limit successful establishment of O. stricta seeds, possibly disrupting seed dispersal via endozoochory by baboons.     

Hierarchical Levels of Seed Predation Variation by Introduced Beetles on an Endemic Mediterranean Palm

Seed predators can limit plant recruitment and thus profoundly impinge the dynamics of plant populations, especially when diverse seed predators (e.g., native and introduced) attack particular plant populations. Surprisingly, however, we know little concerning the potential hierarchy of spatial scales (e.g., region, population, patch) and coupled ecological correlates governing variation in the overall impact that native and introduced seed predators have on plant populations. We investigated several spatial scales and ecological correlates of pre-dispersal seed predation by invasive borer beetles in Chamaerops humilis (Arecaceae), a charismatic endemic palm of the Mediteranean basin. To this end, we considered 13 palm populations (115 palms) within four geographical regions of the Iberian Peninsula. The observed interregional differences in percentages of seed predation by invasive beetles were not significant likely because of considerable variation among populations within regions. Among population variation in seed predation was largely related to level of human impact. In general, levels of seed predation were several folds higher in human-altered populations than in natural populations. Within populations, seed predation declined significantly with the increase in amount of persisting fruit pulp, which acted as a barrier against seed predators. Our results revealed that a native species (a palm) is affected by the introduction of related species because of the concurrent introduction of seed predators that feed on both the introduced and native palms. We also show how the impact of invasive seed predators on plants can vary across a hierarchy of levels ranging from variation among individuals within local populations to large scale regional divergences.     

Microsatellite variation points to local landscape plantings as sources of invasive pampas grass (Cortaderia selloana) in California

International trade in horticultural plants is a major pathway of introduction of invasive species. Pampas grass (Cortaderia selloana) is an invasive species of horticultural origin that is native to South America but cultivated as an ornamental in regions with Mediterranean climates worldwide. To gain insight into the introduction history of invasive populations in California, we analysed microsatellite marker variation in cultivated and invasive C. selloana. We sampled 275 cultivated plants from diverse sources and 698 invasive plants from 33 populations in four geographical regions of California. A model-based Bayesian clustering analysis identified seven distinct gene pools in cultivated C. selloana. Probabilities of assignment of invasive individuals to cultivated gene pools indicated that two gene pools accounted for the genomic origin of 78% of the invasive C. selloana sampled. Extensive admixture between cultivated source gene pools was detected within invasive individuals. Sources of admixed invasive individuals are probably landscape plantings. Consistent with the Bayesian assignment results indicating that multiple cultivated gene pools and landscape plantings are probable sources of invasive populations, F(ST) and neighbour-joining clustering analyses indicated multiple escapes from shared sources in each geographical region. No isolation by distance or geographical trend in reduction of genetic diversity was evident. Furthermore, a generally random and discontinuous distribution of proportional assignments of invasive populations to cultivated gene pools suggests that introductions occurred recurrently within each geographical region. Our results strongly suggest that dispersal through local landscape plantings has contributed to the range expansion of invasive C. selloana in California.     

Dispersal by generalist frugivores affects management of an invasive plant

In the past century, our understanding of the processes driving plant invasion and its consequences for natural and anthropogenic systems has increased considerably. However, the management of invasive plants remains a challenge despite ever more resources being allocated to their removal. Often invasive plants targeted for ‘eradication’ are well‐established, have multiple modes of reproduction, long‐term seed banks, and strong associations with native and non‐native mutualists that ensure dispersal and facilitate spread. The pantropical weed, Lantana camara (Lantana), is one of the most invasive woody plants globally. We illustrate that, for Lantana, eradication is an unrealistic management goal given the short‐term removal approaches, irrespective of the effectiveness of removal methods. We assessed the role of dispersal by avian frugivores in the recolonization of managed areas by Lantana in the seasonally dry, tropical forests of northern and southern India. We estimated the distribution of Lantana, its dispersal potential and the proximity between managed areas and source populations. We found that Lantana was dispersed by many generalist frugivorous birds and that most managed areas were well within the median dispersal distance from source plants facilitating rapid recolonization of managed areas. We conclude that given the difficulty of eradicating long‐established invasive plants, management practices should entail long‐term monitoring and control in priority areas for as long as Lantana occurs in the landscape.     

Surveillance protocols for management of invasive plants: modelling Chilean needle grass (Nassella neesiana) in Australia

Aim To develop a surveillance support model that enables prediction of areas susceptible to invasion, comparative analysis of surveillance methods and intensity and assessment of eradication feasibility. To apply the model to identify surveillance protocols for generalized invasion scenarios and for evaluating surveillance and control for a context‐specific plant invasion. Location Australia. Methods We integrate a spatially explicit simulation model, including plant demography and dispersal vectors, within a Geographical Information System. We use the model to identify effective surveillance protocols using simulations of generalized plant life‐forms spreading via different dispersal mechanisms in real landscapes. We then parameterize the surveillance support model for Chilean needle grass [CNG; Nassella neesiana (Trin. & Rupr.) Barkworth], a highly invasive tussock grass, which is an eradication target in south‐eastern Queensland, Australia. Results General surveillance protocols that can guide rapid response surveillance were identified; suitable habitat that is susceptible to invasion through particular dispersal syndromes should be targeted for surveillance using an adaptive seek‐and‐destroy method. The search radius of the adaptive method should be based on maximum expected dispersal distances. Protocols were used to define a surveillance strategy for CNG, but simulations indicated that despite effective and targeted surveillance, eradication is implausible at current intensities. Main conclusions Several important surveillance protocols emerged and simulations indicated that effectiveness can be increased if they are followed in rapid response surveillance. If sufficient data are available, the surveillance support model should be parameterized to target areas susceptible to invasion and determine whether surveillance is effective and eradication is feasible. We discovered that for CNG, regardless of a carefully designed surveillance strategy, eradication is implausible at current intensities of surveillance and control and these efforts should be doubled if they are to be successful. This is crucial information in the face of environmentally and economically damaging invasive species and large, expensive and potentially ineffective control programmes.     

Environmental and dispersal controls of an annual plant’s distribution: how similar are patterns and apparent processes at two spatial scales?

At scales from microsites to entire ranges, species’ distributions reflect limited adaptation and/or limited dispersal. To what extent are specific distribution patterns and processes similar across scales? We investigated environmental effects—presumed because of adaptation—and independent spatial effects—presumed because of dispersal—on distribution at two scales (landscape patches of approximately 1,300 m², sampled along transects, and 4-m² cells, sampled in contiguous grids within populations) and on individual performance (water status, reproduction) in the California annual, Clarkia xantiana ssp. xantiana. Because water limitation helps set this species’ regional borders, we expected occupancy and performance at smaller scales to correlate with topographic and soil features affecting water relations. At the patch scale, environmental features associated with reduced water stress (i.e., steep slopes that face north; coarse, soft soils; igneous rather than metasedimentary parent rock) predicted occupancy. Spatial aggregation was not detected, but incomplete occupancy of apparently suitable patches indicated that dispersal limits occupancy. At the scale of small cells, relationships between environmental variables, occupancy, density, and performance varied among populations. Associations sometimes resembled those at the patch scale but sometimes opposed them. Spatial aggregation in cell occupancy and/or density occurred in all populations, implying limited dispersal, whereas spatial aggregation of water potential values in some populations might have arisen from spatially structured unmeasured environmental variables. Limited adaptation to drought and limited patch colonization appear to affect patch occupancy in C. xantiana ssp. xantiana, whereas smaller-scale patterns indicate consistent effects of limited dispersal and somewhat variable environmental effects.