Climate Change Impacts on Streamflow and Subbasin-Scale Hydrology in the Upper Colorado River Basin

In the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), the principal source of water in the southwestern U.S., demand exceeds supply in most years, and will likely continue to rise. While General Circulation Models (GCMs) project surface temperature warming by 3.5 to 5.6°C for the area, precipitation projections are variable, with no wetter or drier consensus. We assess the impacts of projected 21^st century climatic changes on subbasins in the UCRB using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, for all hydrologic components (snowmelt, evapotranspiration, surface runoff, subsurface runoff, and streamflow), and for 16 GCMs under the A2 emission scenario. Over the GCM ensemble, our simulations project median Spring streamflow declines of 36% by the end of the 21^st century, with increases more likely at higher elevations, and an overall range of −100 to +68%. Additionally, our results indicated Summer streamflow declines with median decreases of 46%, and an overall range of −100 to +22%. Analysis of hydrologic components indicates large spatial and temporal changes throughout the UCRB, with large snowmelt declines and temporal shifts in most hydrologic components. Warmer temperatures increase average annual evapotranspiration by ∼23%, with shifting seasonal soil moisture availability driving these increases in late Winter and early Spring. For the high-elevation water-generating regions, modest precipitation decreases result in an even greater water yield decrease with less available snowmelt. Precipitation increases with modest warming do not translate into the same magnitude of water-yield increases due to slight decreases in snowmelt and increases in evapotranspiration. For these basins, whether modest warming is associated with precipitation decreases or increases, continued rising temperatures may make drier futures. Subsequently, many subbasins are projected to turn from semi-arid to arid conditions by the 2080 s. In conclusion, water availability in the UCRB could significantly decline with adverse consequences for water supplies, agriculture, and ecosystem health.     

Modeling Water Quality Impacts of Cellulosic Biofuel Production from Corn Silage

The growing interest in the use of alternative biomass products for fuel production requires a thorough understanding of the environmental impacts associated with the production of these bioenergy crops. Corn silage is a potential bioenergy feedstock; however, water quality implications for its utilization as a biofeedstock are not understood. The objective of this work was to evaluate water quality impacts associated with corn silage production. The GLEAMS-NAPRA model was used to quantify runoff, percolation, erosion, nitrate-nitrogen, total phosphorus, and pesticide losses attributed to the production of corn silage with and without winter cover crops for two tillage options (conventional tillage and no till) on three Indiana soils. Results revealed that corn silage would generate greater annual surface runoff (1 to 6 mm) and percolation (1 to 20 mm) compared with corn grain and grain plus stover cropping systems. Silage/winter cereal rye cover crop reduced annual surface runoff and percolation and was strongly influenced by increases in evapotranspiration, when compared with continuous silage production. Silage managed with winter cereal rye cover crop influenced water quality by reducing annual nitrate losses with runoff from a low of 14 % to a high of 27 %, with relatively no effect because of tillage management. No-till practice on silage system produced significantly greater phosphorus losses (7.46 to 18.07 kg/ha) in comparison to silage/cereal rye, corn grain, and grain plus stover harvest (p?<?0.05). For every 1,000 l of ethanol produced from corn silage, erosion losses ranged from 0.07 to 0.95 t/ha for conventional tillage practices and from 0.06 to 0.83 t/ha for no-till practices. The feasibility of cropping systems such as corn silage/cereal rye could contribute to large-scale biomass production but should be further investigated.     

Applying Climate Change Risk Management Tools to Integrate Streamflow Projections and Social Vulnerability

Ecosystems - Shifts in streamflow, due to future climate and land use change, may pose risks to nearby human communities. Projecting the spatial distribution and impacts of these risks requires...     

The Impacts of Household Consumption and Options for Change

This introductory article situates the contributions that comprise this special issue within the field of sustainable consumption and production (SCP) studies. After a brief review of the policy history surrounding SCP, we organize our discussion and the subsequent collection of articles into two groups. The first suite of articles views the environmental impacts associated with household consumption from the perspectives of different consumer groups, income levels, and geographic areas. This work confirms and refines several insights that have been developing over the past several years, namely that food and beverages, mobility, housing, and energy-using products are the most critical consumption domains from the standpoint of environmental sustainability and that higher household income leads to greater (but less than proportional) impacts. The second subset of articles analyzes the potential for mitigating these impacts through behavioral changes and innovation strategies. Although the contributions to this special issue describe several noteworthy examples of information- and team-based initiatives to catalyze behavioral changes, the state of knowledge pertaining to this aspect of the consumption problem is much more inchoate. Research on the formulation and implementation of effective "change management for sustainable consumption" should be treated as an area of priority attention for industrial ecologists.     

Projecting the Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change on Montane Wetlands

Wetlands are globally important ecosystems that provide critical services for natural communities and human society. Montane wetland ecosystems are expected to be among the most sensitive to changing climate, as their persistence depends on factors directly influenced by climate (e.g. precipitation, snowpack, evaporation). Despite their importance and climate sensitivity, wetlands tend to be understudied due to a lack of tools and data relative to what is available for other ecosystem types. Here, we develop and demonstrate a new method for projecting climate-induced hydrologic changes in montane wetlands. Using observed wetland water levels and soil moisture simulated by the physically based Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model, we developed site-specific regression models relating soil moisture to observed wetland water levels to simulate the hydrologic behavior of four types of montane wetlands (ephemeral, intermediate, perennial, permanent wetlands) in the U. S. Pacific Northwest. The hybrid models captured observed wetland dynamics in many cases, though were less robust in others. We then used these models to a) hindcast historical wetland behavior in response to observed climate variability (1916–2010 or later) and classify wetland types, and b) project the impacts of climate change on montane wetlands using global climate model scenarios for the 2040s and 2080s (A1B emissions scenario). These future projections show that climate-induced changes to key driving variables (reduced snowpack, higher evapotranspiration, extended summer drought) will result in earlier and faster drawdown in Pacific Northwest montane wetlands, leading to systematic reductions in water levels, shortened wetland hydroperiods, and increased probability of drying. Intermediate hydroperiod wetlands are projected to experience the greatest changes. For the 2080s scenario, widespread conversion of intermediate wetlands to fast-drying ephemeral wetlands will likely reduce wetland habitat availability for many species.     

Crop Management Impacts Biofuel Quality: Influence of Switchgrass Harvest Time on Yield, Nitrogen and Ash of Fast Pyrolysis Products

Although upgrading bio-oil from fast pyrolysis of biomass is an attractive pathway for biofuel production, nitrogen (N) and mineral matter carried over from the feedstock to the bio-oil represents a serious contaminant in the process. Reducing the N and ash content of biomass feedstocks would improve process reliability and reduce production costs of pyrolytic biofuels. This study investigated: (1) How does switchgrass harvest date influence the yield, N concentration ([N]), and ash concentration of biomass and fast pyrolysis products? and (2) Is there a predictive relationship between [N] of switchgrass biomass and [N] of fast pyrolysis products? Switchgrass from five harvest dates and varying [N] from central Iowa were pyrolyzed using a free-fall reactor. Harvestable biomass peaked in August (8.6 Mg ha^?1), dropping significantly by November (6.7 Mg ha^?1, P?=?0.0027). Production of bio-oil per unit area mirrored that of harvested biomass at each harvest date; however, bio-oil yield per unit dry biomass increased from 46.6 % to 56.7 % during the season (P?=?0.0018). Allowing switchgrass to senesce lowered biomass [N] dramatically, by as much as 68 % from June to November (P?<?0.0001). Concurrently, bio-oil [N] declined from 0.51 % in June to 0.17 % by November (P?<?0.0001). Significant reductions in ash concentration were also observed in biomass and char. Finally, we show for the first time that the [N] of switchgrass biomass is a strong predictor of the [N] of bio-oil, char, and non-condensable gas with R ² values of 0.89, 0.94, and 0.88, respectively.     

Thermodynamics of the Corn-Ethanol Biofuel Cycle

This article defines sustainability and sustainable cyclic processes, and quantifies the degree of non-renewability of a major biofuel: ethanol produced from industrially grown corn. It demonstrates that more fossil energy is used to produce ethanol from corn than the ethanol's calorific value. Analysis of the carbon cycle shows that all leftovers from ethanol production must be returned back to the fields to limit the irreversible mining of soil humus. Thus, production of ethanol from whole plants is unsustainable. In 2004, ethanol production from corn will generate 8 million tons of incremental CO₂, over and above the amount of CO₂ generated by burning gasoline with 115% of the calorific value of this ethanol. It next calculates the cumulative exergy (available free energy) consumed in corn farming and ethanol production, and estimates the minimum amount of work necessary to restore the key non-renewable resources consumed by the industrial corn-ethanol cycle. This amount of work is compared with the maximum useful work obtained from the industrial corn-ethanol cycle. It appears that if the corn-ethanol exergy is used to power a car engine, the minimum restoration work is about 6 times the maximum useful work from the cycle. This ratio drops down to 2 if an ideal fuel cell is used to process the ethanol. The article estimates the U.S. taxpayer subsidies of the industrial corn-ethanol cycle at $3.8 billion in 2004. The parallel subsidies by the environment are estimated at $1.8 billion in 2004. The latter estimate will increase manifold when the restoration costs of aquifers, streams, and rivers, and the Gulf of Mexico are also included. Finally, the article estimates that (per year and unit area) the inefficient solar cells produce ～ 100 times more electricity than corn ethanol. There is a need for more reliance on sunlight, the only source of renewable energy on the earth.     

Higher Trophic Levels Overwhelm Climate Change Impacts on Terrestrial Ecosystem Functioning

Forest floor food webs play pivotal roles in carbon cycling, but they are rarely considered in models of carbon fluxes, including soil carbon dioxide emissions (respiration), under climatic warming. The indirect effects of invertebrates on heterotrophic (microbial and invertebrate) respiration through interactions with microbial communities are significant and will be altered by warming. However, the interactive effects of invertebrates and warming on heterotrophic respiration in the field are poorly understood. In this study we combined field and common garden laboratory approaches to examine relationships between warming, forest floor food web structure, and heterotrophic respiration. We found that soil animals can overwhelm the effects of warming (to 5 degrees Celsius above ambient) on heterotrophic respiration. In particular, the presence of higher trophic levels and burrowing detritivores strongly determined heterotrophic respiration rates in temperate forest soils. These effects were, however, context-dependent, with greater effects in a lower-latitude site. Without isolating and including the significant impact of invertebrates, climate models will be incomplete, hindering well-informed policy decisions.     

Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Vernal Pool Ecosystems and Endemic Branchiopods

This study evaluated the hydrologic sensitivity of vernal pool ecosystems in the Central Valley of California to climatic changes projected for 2100. A vernal pool water-balance model was used to evaluate rain-fed vernal pools at four locations under future conditions projected by two contrasting global climate models. The potential for change in the duration of continuous inundation, frequency of reproductively suitable inundation events, and the seasonal distribution of inundation was quantified. The potential impact of hydrologic changes varied by species and by location. Three scales of response were identified: (a) At the regional scale, pools in the middle of the Central Valley near Merced were the most responsive to climatic changes. (b) At the local scale, smaller, shallower pools had the greatest potential to change the distribution of reproductively suitable habitat available to branchiopods. (c) At the individual pool scale, changes in precipitation will dominate changes in temperature, resulting in relatively linear responses in the duration of inundation. The ecological impact of these changes will be determined by a balance between the increasing suitability of vernal pools for branchiopod predators and the hydrologic improvement of currently marginal habitats.     

Organic Farming: Biodiversity Impacts Can Depend on Dispersal Characteristics and Landscape Context

Organic farming, a low intensity system, may offer benefits for a range of taxa, but what affects the extent of those benefits is imperfectly understood. We explored the effects of organic farming and landscape on the activity density and species density of spiders and carabid beetles, using a large sample of paired organic and conventional farms in the UK. Spider activity density and species density were influenced by both farming system and surrounding landscape. Hunting spiders, which tend to have lower dispersal capabilities, had higher activity density, and more species were captured, on organic compared to conventional farms. There was also evidence for an interaction, as the farming system effect was particularly marked in the cropped area before harvest and was more pronounced in complex landscapes (those with little arable land). There was no evidence for any effect of farming system or landscape on web-building spiders (which include the linyphiids, many of which have high dispersal capabilities). For carabid beetles, the farming system effects were inconsistent. Before harvest, higher activity densities were observed in the crops on organic farms compared with conventional farms. After harvest, no difference was detected in the cropped area, but more carabids were captured on conventional compared to organic boundaries. Carabids were more species-dense in complex landscapes, and farming system did not affect this. There was little evidence that non-cropped habitat differences explained the farming system effects for either spiders or carabid beetles. For spiders, the farming system effects in the cropped area were probably largely attributable to differences in crop management; reduced inputs of pesticides (herbicides and insecticides) and fertilisers are possible influences, and there was some evidence for an effect of non-crop plant species richness on hunting spider activity density. The benefits of organic farming may be greatest for taxa with lower dispersal abilities generally. The evidence for interactions among landscape and farming system in their effects on spiders highlights the importance of developing strategies for managing farmland at the landscape-scale for most effective conservation of biodiversity.     

Impacts of Eutrophication on Carbon Burial in Freshwater Lakes in an Intensively Agricultural Landscape

The influence of inland water bodies on the global carbon cycle and the great potential for long-term carbon burial in them is an important component of global limnology. We used paleolimnological methods to estimate changes in carbon burial rates through time in a suite of natural lakes in the US state of Iowa which has watersheds that have been heavily modified over the last 150 years. Our results show increasing carbon burial for all lakes in our study as agriculture intensified. Our estimates of carbon burial rates, before land clearance, are similar to the published worldwide averages for nutrient-poor lakes. In nearly all the cases, burial rates increased to very high levels (up to 200 g C m⁻² y⁻¹) following agricultural development. These results support the idea that the increased autochthonous and allochthonous carbon flux, related to anthropogenic change, leads to higher rates of carbon burial. Further, these results imply that the fraction of global carbon buried by lakes will be increasingly important in the future if worldwide trends in anthropogenic eutrophication continue.     

全球气候变化对沈阳地区春玉米生长的可能影响

利用玉米（Ｚｅａ ｍａｙｓ Ｌ．）生长生理生态学模拟模型（ＭＰＥＳＭ）,分别模拟了未来气候变化的１２种气候条件下（ＣＯ２浓度倍增,平均气温上升１．５℃、３．０℃和４．５℃,降水量增加２０％、减少２０％、减少４０％和降水量不变）,沈阳地区土壤湿度、玉米发育和玉米生长的变化,并与当前条件下进行了比较,以评价玉米生长对各气候因子变化的敏感性和全球气候变化下沈阳地区春玉米的生长趋势。研究表明：土壤湿度对降     

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Insect Communities: A Transplant Experiment

Climate change will have profound impacts on the distribution, abundance and ecology of all species. We used a multi-species transplant experiment to investigate the potential effects of a warmer climate on insect community composition and structure. Eight native Australian plant species were transplanted into sites approximately 2.5°C (mean annual temperature) warmer than their native range. Subsequent insect colonisation was monitored for 12 months. We compared the insect communities on transplanted host plants at the warmer sites with control plants transplanted within the species'' native range. Comparisons of the insect communities were also made among transplanted plants at warmer sites and congeneric plant species native to the warmer transplant area. We found that the morphospecies composition of the colonising Coleoptera and Hemiptera communities differed markedly between transplants at the control compared to the warmer sites. Community structure, as described by the distribution of feeding guilds, was also found to be different between the controls and transplants when the entire Coleoptera and Hemiptera community, including non-herbivore feeding guilds, was considered. However, the structure of the herbivorous insect community showed a higher level of consistency between plants at control and warm sites. There were marked differences in community composition and feeding guild structure, for both herbivores and non-herbivores, between transplants and congenerics at the warm sites. These results suggest that as the climate warms, considerable turnover in the composition of insect communities may occur, but insect herbivore communities may retain elements of their present-day structure.     

Fine-Scale Genetic Response to Landscape Change in a Gliding Mammal

Understanding how populations respond to habitat loss is central to conserving biodiversity. Population genetic approaches enable the identification of the symptoms of population disruption in advance of population collapse. However, the spatio-temporal scales at which population disruption occurs are still too poorly known to effectively conserve biodiversity in the face of human-induced landscape change. We employed microsatellite analysis to examine genetic structure and diversity over small spatial (mostly 1-50 km) and temporal scales (20-50 years) in the squirrel glider (Petaurus norfolcensis), a gliding mammal that is commonly subjected to a loss of habitat connectivity. We identified genetically differentiated local populations over distances as little as 3 km and within 30 years of landscape change. Genetically isolated local populations experienced the loss of genetic diversity, and significantly increased mean relatedness, which suggests increased inbreeding. Where tree cover remained, genetic differentiation was less evident. This pattern was repeated in two landscapes located 750 km apart. These results lend support to other recent studies that suggest the loss of habitat connectivity can produce fine-scale population genetic change in a range of taxa. This gives rise to the prediction that many other vertebrates will experience similar genetic changes. Our results suggest the future collapse of local populations of this gliding mammal is likely unless habitat connectivity is maintained or restored. Landscape management must occur on a fine-scale to avert the erosion of biodiversity.     

Aeroallergens, Allergic Disease, and Climate Change: Impacts and Adaptation

Recent research has shown that there are many effects of climate change on aeroallergens and thus allergic diseases in humans. Increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration acts as a fertilizer for plant growth. The fertilizing effects of carbon dioxide, as well as increased temperatures from climate change, increase pollen production and the allergen content of pollen grains. In addition, higher temperatures are changing the timing and duration of the pollen season. As regional climates change, plants can move into new areas and changes in atmospheric circulation can blow pollen- and spore-containing dust to new areas, thus introducing people to allergens to which they have not been exposed previously. Climate change also influences the concentrations of airborne pollutants, which alone, and in conjunction with aeroallergens, can exacerbate asthma or other respiratory illnesses. The few epidemiological analyses of meteorological factors, aeroallergens, and allergic diseases demonstrate the pathways through which climate can exert its influence on aeroallergens and allergic diseases. In addition to the need for more research, there is the imperative to take preventive and adaptive actions to address the onset and exacerbation of allergic diseases associated with climate variability and change.     

Bioethanol Potentials and Life-Cycle Assessments of Biofuel Feedstocks

A wide range of bioenergy crops has been proposed as feedstocks that can serve as renewable and ecologically sound substitutes to fossil fuels. In the United States, corn grain (Zea mays) ethanol is the primary biofuel, with over 49 billion liters produced in 2010. Along with the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007 mandate, concerns about competition for food, land availability, nutrient and water requirements, energy balances, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have prompted researchers to investigate other potential feedstocks. These include second-generation lignocellulosic feedstock and third-generation biodiesel from microalgae and cyanobacteria. However, each feedstock option has associated benefits and consequences for its use. One technique used to evaluate the energy efficiency of bioenergy production systems is the life-cycle assessment (LCA), where system inputs and outputs are computed in terms of either C or energy equivalents to assess the net gains in energy or C offsets. This article collates and synthesizes information about feedstock production options. Results show a wide range of calculated energy and GHG balances, even for the same feedstock species. Discrepancies in LCA and uncertainty thus make direct comparisons difficult and prevent a consensus in determining feedstock suitability. Recommendations must be based upon LCA model assumptions, crop species, cultivation methods, management practices, and energy conversion choices. Currently lignocellulosic feedstock, while a better alternative than corn grain, is not a long-term viable energy source. New feedstocks and technologies are necessary if bioenergy is to be C-neutral and efficient in energy production and land use. Although C fluxes are considered in LCA, one important ecosystem C stock that has previously been left out of many LCA models is changes to soil organic carbon (SOC). Future research, developments, and priorities are discussed for options to produce low C fuel sources and stabilize the climate.     

Estimating Impacts of Climate Change Policy on Land Use: An Agent-Based Modelling Approach

Agriculture is important to New Zealand’s economy. Like other primary producers, New Zealand strives to increase agricultural output while maintaining environmental integrity. Utilising modelling to explore the economic, environmental and land use impacts of policy is critical to understand the likely effects on the sector. Key deficiencies within existing land use and land cover change models are the lack of heterogeneity in farmers and their behaviour, the role that social networks play in information transfer, and the abstraction of the global and regional economic aspects within local-scale approaches. To resolve these issues we developed the Agent-based Rural Land Use New Zealand model. The model utilises a partial equilibrium economic model and an agent-based decision-making framework to explore how the cumulative effects of individual farmer’s decisions affect farm conversion and the resulting land use at a catchment scale. The model is intended to assist in the development of policy to shape agricultural land use intensification in New Zealand. We illustrate the model, by modelling the impact of a greenhouse gas price on farm-level land use, net revenue, and environmental indicators such as nutrient losses and soil erosion for key enterprises in the Hurunui and Waiau catchments of North Canterbury in New Zealand. Key results from the model show that farm net revenue is estimated to increase over time regardless of the greenhouse gas price. Net greenhouse gas emissions are estimated to decline over time, even under a no GHG price baseline, due to an expansion of forestry on low productivity land. Higher GHG prices provide a greater net reduction of emissions. While social and geographic network effects have minimal impact on net revenue and environmental outputs for the catchment, they do have an effect on the spatial arrangement of land use and in particular the clustering of enterprises.