Invasion trajectory of alien trees: the role of introduction pathway and planting history

Global change is driving a massive rearrangement of the world's biota. Trajectories of distributional shifts are shaped by species traits, the recipient environment and driving forces with many of the driving forces directly due to human activities. The relative importance of each in determining the distributions of introduced species is poorly understood. We consider 11 Australian Acacia species introduced to South Africa for different reasons (commercial forestry, dune stabilization and ornamentation) to determine how features of the introduction pathway have shaped their invasion history. Projections from species distribution models (SDMs) were developed to assess how the reason for introduction influences the similarity between climatic envelopes in native and alien ranges. A lattice model for an idealized invasion was developed to assess the relative contribution of intrinsic traits and introduction dynamics on the abundance and extent over the course of simulated invasions. SDMs show that alien populations of ornamental species in South Africa occupy substantially different climate space from their native ranges, whereas species introduced for forestry occupy a similar climate space in native and introduced ranges. This may partly explain the slow spread rates observed for some alien ornamental plants. Such mismatches are likely to become less pronounced with the current drive towards ‘eco gardens’ resulting in more introductions of ornamental species with a close climate match between native and newly introduced regions. The results from the lattice model showed that the conditions associated with the introduction pathway (especially introduction pressure) dominate early invasion dynamics. The placement of introduction foci in urban areas limited the extent and abundance of invasive populations. Features of introduction events appear to initially mask the influence of intrinsic species traits on invasions and help to explain the relative success of species introduced for different purposes. Introduction dynamics therefore can have long‐lasting influences on the outcomes of species redistributions, and must be explicitly considered in management plans.     

A plant‐traits approach to assessing the success of alien weed species in irrigated Mediterranean orchards

In addition to their impact on natural habitats, invasive alien plants can have a significant negative effect on agricultural systems and cause economic losses. Flood‐irrigated orchards in the Mediterranean Basin are vulnerable to the invasion of alien weeds, primarily because of the traditional management practices used in the orchards, which are characterized by high soil moisture during the dry summer period, nutrient availability and high levels of disturbance. This study sought to determine whether their biological traits can explain the success of alien weed species. To answer this question, 408 floristic relevés were conducted in 136 flood‐irrigated orchards on the Plains of Lleida (Catalonia, NE of Spain). Richness and cover of native and alien weeds were compared. Furthermore, a set of biological traits were compared between successful and non‐successful weeds for the whole data and separately between native and alien weeds using logistic regression and classification trees. In flood‐irrigated orchards, alien species covered most of their area, even though the richness of alien species was lower than that of the native species. The most important species were C4 species with seeds dispersed by water, and on the other hand, rosulate and caespitose‐reptant hemicryptophytes with long flowering period. Most of these traits fitted with those of the invasive alien weeds, which were mostly C4 species with seeds dispersed by water. Perennial life form characterized successful native weeds. In this study, we discuss how the traditional management of flood irrigation in fruit‐tree orchards favours invasive alien weeds that have specific traits, acting as a reservoir for the spread of alien weeds into other crops and surrounding riparian habitats. We also propose changing management practices in order to avoid the selection of alien weeds and to promote native species.     

Invasion success of alien plants: do habitat affinities in the native distribution range matter?

Aim To assess how habitat affinities in the native distribution range influence the invasion success of 282 central European neophytes (alien plants introduced after ad 1500). Location Czech Republic. Methods Classification trees were used to determine which native habitats donate the most alien species, the correspondence between habitats occupied by species in their native and invaded distribution ranges, and invasion success of species originating from different habitats. Results The species most likely to naturalize in Central Europe are those associated with thermophile woodland fringes in their native range (81%), cultivated areas of gardens and parks (75%) and broad‐leaved deciduous woodlands (72%). The largest proportions of invasive species recruit from those that occur on riverine terraces and eroded slopes, or grow in both deciduous woodland and riverine scrub. When the relative role of habitats in the native range is assessed as a determinant of the probability that a species will become invasive in concert with other factors (the species’ residence time, life history, region of origin), the direct effect of habitat is negligible. However, the effect of native habitats on patterns of invasions observed in central Europe is manifested by large differences in the numbers of species they supply to the invaded region. More than 50 neophytes were recruited from each of the following habitats: dry grasslands, ruderal habitats, deciduous woodland, inland cliffs, rock pavements and outcrops, and tall‐herb fringes and meadows. Main conclusions Casual species recruit from a wider range of habitats in their native range than they occupy in the invaded range; naturalized but not invasive species inhabit a comparable spectrum of habitats in both ranges, and successful invaders occupy a wider range of habitats in the invaded than in the native range. This supports the idea that the invasive phase of the process is associated with changes in biological features that allow for extension of the spectrum of habitats invaded.     

Plant attributes determining the regional abundance of weeds on central European arable land

Aim Several recent studies have aimed to identify the biological, ecological and distributional attributes that determine the regional abundance of plant species. Here we aim to assess the relationships between regional abundance and species attributes in weeds on arable land. Location Czech Republic, central Europe. Methods The relationships between regional abundance and species attributes were studied with a data set of 381 weed species occurring on arable land in the Czech Republic. Regional species abundances were estimated from their occurrence frequency in vegetation plots distributed across the country. Using regression tree models, abundance was related to the biological traits, ecological indicator values, geographical distribution and habitat range of species. The models were calculated for the entire country and separately for weeds in cereals, root crops, lowlands and uplands. The effects of phylogenetic relatedness among species on their regional abundance were quantified and compared with the effects of species attributes. Results The results were similar for the whole data set and its particular subsets. Phylogeny explained 11.2–14.9% and species attributes 16.1–56.9% of the variation in regional abundance of weed species. Removal of the phylogenetic signal did not result in important changes in the effects of particular attributes. The most abundant species were those flowering in pre‐spring and early spring, adapted to low temperatures, relatively shade tolerant and with high nutrient requirements. The high regional abundance of these species positively correlated with their broad geographical (often circumpolar) distribution and broad habitat ranges. Main conclusions The regional abundance of weeds can, to some extent, be explained by their attributes. The most important attributes are those that enable weeds to grow and reproduce in the cool season when there is limited competition with crop plants, and those that are adaptations to growth in dense vegetation stands and highly productive habitats.     

Propagule pressure and an invasion syndrome determine invasion success in a plant community model

The success of species invasions depends on multiple factors, including propagule pressure, disturbance, productivity, and the traits of native and non‐native species. While the importance of many of these determinants has already been investigated in relative isolation, they are rarely studied in combination. Here, we address this shortcoming by exploring the effect of the above‐listed factors on the success of invasions using an individual‐based mechanistic model. This approach enables us to explicitly control environmental factors (temperature as surrogate for productivity, disturbance, and propagule pressure) as well as to monitor whole‐community trait distributions of environmental adaptation, mass, and dispersal abilities. We simulated introductions of plant individuals to an oceanic island to assess which factors and species traits contribute to invasion success. We found that the most influential factors were higher propagule pressure and a particular set of traits. This invasion trait syndrome was characterized by a relative similarity in functional traits of invasive to native species, while invasive species had on average higher environmental adaptation, higher body mass, and increased dispersal distances, that is, had greater competitive and dispersive abilities. Our results highlight the importance in management practice of reducing the import of alien species, especially those that display this trait syndrome and come from similar habitats as those being managed.     

The role of species traits and taxonomic patterns in alien bird impacts

Aim To test whether the distribution of alien bird impacts varies across bird families and regions of origin, and to investigate whether species traits associated with successful introductions can predict which species will have negative impacts in the new area of introduction. Location Europe and the Mediterranean Basin. Methods Combining historical information and published literature about negative economic, biological and human health impacts, we compared the distribution of impacts among bird families and native origins of bird species for three major types of impact (economic, biodiversity and human health). We examined the relationships between ecological, biological and reproductive characteristics of species and the severity of the impacts. Results The majority of alien species with reported impacts originated from the Afrotropical, Indo‐Malayan and Palaearctic biogeographical regions. The distribution of alien bird species in Europe with reported impacts shows a taxonomic bias and largely mirrors patterns of establishment. While most species had primarily either economic or biodiversity impacts, several species in the Anatidae, Corvidae, Passeridae, Phasianidae and Sturnidae families were associated with moderate to serious negative impacts on both economic resources and native biodiversity. After controlling for taxonomic effects, species with the greatest overall impacts were habitat generalists and multi‐brooded, while species with smaller bodies and the tendency to form large feeding or roosting flocks were linked with greater impacts on native biodiversity. Main conclusions This study presents the first synthesis of published impact data for alien birds and provides a broad‐scale perspective on factors that contribute to their impacts. The results show that accounting for both species traits and taxonomy improves our ability to predict the impacts of alien bird species. Because several species are currently in the early stages of establishment in Europe, there may be an opportunity to limit negative impacts with efforts that promote proactive strategies against species and families possessing the above characteristics.     

Contrasting functional trait syndromes underlay woody alien success in the same ecosystem

We performed a comprehensive comparative study of functional traits in coexisting alien and native woody species in order to examine the strategies related to resource use and dispersion underlying alien success in mountain Chaco woodlands of central Argentina. Our approach integrated seemingly contrasting pieces of evidence in the region. We specifically assessed whether (i) the ‘functional acquisitive trend’ previously observed along a broad environmental gradient accounts for woody alien naturalization when considering a single mesic ecosystem; or (ii) more than one trait syndrome is important among alien species, which would be more in line with the context‐dependent nature of biological invasions at a local scale. Fifteen vegetative and regenerative traits were measured on the most common 14 native and 11 alien woody species. We compared the attributes of (i) native and alien species and (ii) between native species and two contrasting groups of alien species identified in the previous analysis. The overall trait comparison (i) showed that, in terms of vegetative attributes, woody alien species tend to be on average more acquisitive than native species. However, (ii) two contrasting syndromes were revealed among alien species: a group of seven deciduous species with acquisitive attributes; and a group of four evergreen species showing markedly more conservative attributes than the first group. The functional attributes of ‘conservative aliens’ completely overlapped with the range observed for native species, except for an exclusive dispersal phenology and a stronger tendency to clonal spread. Acquisitive aliens, in turn, proved to be beyond the range of attributes of native species, at the acquisitive extreme, as they did in previous comparisons. Despite their importance, general trends in plant functional attributes across regions and ecosystems can sometimes obscure trends at more local scales that are nevertheless important for the understanding and management of particular systems. Our study concurs with previous general trends when looking at the overall comparison between native and alien species, but unveils contrasting functional strategies among alien species when examining their attributes more closely, even within the same ecosystem.     

Distinct invasion strategies operating within a natural annual plant system

Alien plant species are known to have a wide range of impacts on recipient communities, from resident species’ exclusions to coexistence with resident species. It remains unclear; however, if this variety of impacts is due to different invader strategies, features of recipient communities or both. To test this, we examined multiple plant invasions of a single ecosystem in southwestern Australia. We used extensive community data to calculate pairwise segregation between target alien species and many co‐occurring species. We related segregation to species’ positions along community trait hierarchies and identified at least two distinct invasion strategies: ‘exploiters’ which occupy high positions along key trait hierarchies and reduce local native species diversity (particularly in nutrient‐enriched situations), and ‘coexisters’ who occupy intermediate trait positions and have no discernable impact on native diversity. We conclude that trait hierarchies, linked to measures of competition, can provide valuable insights about the processes driving different invasion outcomes.     

Historical legacies and ecological determinants of grass naturalizations worldwide

The global distribution of exotic species is the result of abiotic, biotic and dispersal filtering processes that shape the movement and success of species outside their native range. In this study we aim to understand how these filtering processes drive the fluxes of grass species among regions, the factors that influence which species establish outside of their native range, and where they do so. We used national and subnational checklists of native and introduced grass species to determine the extent to which each region was a source or recipient of exotic grass species. We asked how species traits may distinguish those grass species that have naturalized outside their native range from those that have not, and how environmental conditions are related to the distribution of exotic grass species. We found that exotic grass establishment is shaped by an array of factors including characteristics of regions, traits of species and their interactions. Regions with a longer history of human occupation and larger numbers of native grass species were generally the most important sources of exotic species. Global flows of species were mostly driven by a climate match between the native and exotic ranges, but were also highly asymmetric, with regions with recent human arrival being the major hosts of exotic grass species. Tall, annual and C4 grass species exhibited particularly high probabilities of establishment outside their native range. Despite the idiosyncrasy and stochasticity characteristic of exotic species establishment, this biogeographical analysis revealed important generalities across this large plant group. Our results suggest that grass species that have co-occurred with humans for a longer time may be better adapted to living in anthropogenic landscapes, explaining the global asymmetry in species introductions.     

Multiple introductions,admixture and bridgehead invasion characterize the introduction history of Ambrosia artemisiifolia in Europe and Australia

Admixture between differentiated populations is considered to be a powerful mechanism stimulating the invasive success of some introduced species. It is generally facilitated through multiple introductions; however, the importance of admixture prior to introduction has rarely been considered. We assess the likelihood that the invasive Ambrosia artemisiifolia populations of Europe and Australia developed through multiple introductions or were sourced from a historical admixture zone within native North America. To do this, we combine large genomic and sampling data sets analysed with approximate Bayesian computation and random forest scenario evaluation to compare single and multiple invasion scenarios with pre‐ and postintroduction admixture simultaneously. We show the historical admixture zone within native North America originated before global invasion of this weed and could act as a potential source of introduced populations. We provide evidence supporting the hypothesis that the invasive populations established through multiple introductions from the native range into Europe and subsequent bridgehead invasion into Australia. We discuss the evolutionary mechanisms that could promote invasiveness and evolutionary potential of alien species from bridgehead invasions and admixed source populations.     

遗传多样性与外来物种的成功入侵: 现状和展望

遗传多样性被认为是影响外来种入侵成功的重要因素之一。研究表明, 尽管外来种在入侵过程中可能受到奠基者效应的影响, 但是多次引种、种内或种间杂交等过程使得许多外来种在引入地的遗传多样性水平未必会显著低于原产地, 从而使得外来种可能通过快速进化来适应引入地的新生境。然而, 高水平的遗传多样性并非成功入侵的必要条件, 遗传变异的匮乏对一些外来种的入侵能力没有明显的影响, 甚至在一些生物入侵案例中, 遗传多样性的降低反而促进了入侵成功。针对遗传多样性与入侵成功之间的复杂关系, 本文在评述外来种遗传多样性的研究现状的基础上, 分析了遗传多样性对外来种的短期入侵成功和长期进化的影响机制, 从方法角度探讨了目前研究中存在的若干问题, 并对如何推进入侵生态学研究提出了一些看法。正如一些学者提出的, 入侵生态学需要与生态学其他分支整合起来, 才能加深对生物入侵及其相关的生态和进化过程的理解。     

Do biodiversity and human impact influence the introduction or establishment of alien mammals?

What determines the number of alien species in a given region? ‘Native biodiversity’ and ‘human impact’ are typical answers to this question. Indeed, studies comparing different regions have frequently found positive relationships between number of alien species and measures of both native biodiversity (e.g. the number of native species) and human impact (e.g. human population). These relationships are typically explained by biotic acceptance or resistance, i.e. by influence of native biodiversity and human impact on the second step of the invasion process, establishment. The first step of the invasion process, introduction, has often been ignored. Here we investigate whether relationships between number of alien mammals and native biodiversity or human impact in 43 European countries are mainly shaped by differences in number of introduced mammals or establishment success. Our results suggest that correlation between number of native and established mammals is spurious, as it is simply explainable by the fact that both quantities are linked to country area. We also demonstrate that countries with higher human impact host more alien mammals than other countries because they received more introductions than other countries. Differences in number of alien mammals cannot be explained by differences in establishment success. Our findings highlight importance of human activities and question, at least for mammals in Europe, importance of biotic acceptance and resistance.     

Analysing ecological dynamics with relational event models: The case of biological invasions

Aims

Spatio-temporal processes play a key role in ecology, from genes to large-scale macroecological and biogeographical processes. Existing methods studying such spatio-temporally structured data either simplify the dynamic structure or the complex interactions of ecological drivers. The aim of this paper is to present a generic method for ecological research that allows analysing spatio-temporal patterns of biological processes at large spatial scales by including the time-varying variables that drive these dynamics.

Location

Global analysis at the level of 272 regions.

Methods

We introduce a method called relational event modelling (REM). REM relies on temporal interaction dynamics that encode sequences of relational events connecting a sender node to a recipient node at a specific point in time. We apply REM to the spread of alien species around the globe between 1880 and 2005, following accidental or deliberate introductions into geographical regions outside of their native range. In this context, a relational event represents the new occurrence of an alien species given its former distribution.

Results

The application of relational event models to the first reported invasions of 4835 established alien species outside of their native ranges from four major taxonomic groups enables us to unravel the main drivers of the dynamics of the spread of invasive alien species. Combining the alien species first records data with other spatio-temporal information enables us to discover which factors have been responsible for the spread of species across the globe. Besides the usual drivers of species invasions, such as trade, land use and climatic conditions, we also find evidence for species-interconnectedness in alien species spread.

Conclusions

Relational event models offer the capacity to account for the temporal sequences of ecological events such as biological invasions and to investigate how relationships between these events and potential drivers change over time.     

Lake construction has facilitated calanoid copepod invasions in New Zealand

Aim We tested the hypothesis that construction of lakes and ponds has facilitated both inter‐ and intracontinental invasions of calanoid copepod species. Location North Island, New Zealand. Methods We sampled both natural and constructed lakes, ponds and reservoirs for calanoid copepods in the North Island, New Zealand. Species records were supplemented by examining historically collected samples and literature review. Distributions of non‐indigenous calanoid copepod species were compared between constructed and natural waters. Species distributions of native species were compared with the basement terranes (microplates) of the North Island to determine if they possess ‘natural ranges’, and to assess whether construction of new water bodies had altered these distributions. Results Ten calanoid copepod species have been recorded. At least four, and possibly five, of these species are non‐indigenous and were restricted to constructed water bodies. Occurrences in constructed water bodies were not restricted to dammed valleys, but also included ponds constructed on farms, ornamental ponds, disused quarries and retired mines. Four Boeckella species had distributions in natural waters closely related to the North Island basement terranes, and therefore possess ‘natural ranges’ on the island. One species, Boeckella propinqua, was found in natural lakes over a small geographical range only, but has spread with construction of new water bodies to now be widely distributed over the island. Main conclusions Construction of lakes and ponds has facilitated the invasion of calanoid copepod species at both inter‐ and intracontinental scales. Our findings suggest that resident native calanoid copepod species may reduce the risk of invasion to natural water bodies, as similar‐sized species are commonly unable to co‐occur. Spread of the non‐indigenous representatives from constructed into natural waters is inevitable, with established populations providing local propagule supplies for regular introductions.     

Genetic diversity and population structure of invasive and native populations of Erigeron canadensis L.

小蓬草入侵地和原产地种群的遗传多样性和种群结构 外来入侵植物对全球生物多样性造成了危害。小蓬草(Erigeron canadensis L.)是危害最为严重的外来农业杂草之一,代表了洲际入侵的典型例子。本研究利用10个多态性SSR位点,分别对采自中国江苏和浙江省的入侵地和采自美国阿拉巴马州的原产地各5个种群、共计312个植株的基因型进行了遗传多样性和遗传结构分析。结果表明,江苏省和浙江省的入侵种群显示出与阿拉巴马州原产地种群相似的遗传多样性,表明入侵期间没有严重的遗传瓶颈。利用STRUCTURE对种群结构的分析结果显示,种群之间分化较低,在原产地和入侵范围内均只仅检测到两个基因群。在入侵种群中观察到的遗传多样性较高,表明在入侵初期可能存在多次引入或引入了遗传背景不同的繁殖体。上述研究为阐明小蓬草这一全球有害杂草在中国东部的入侵动态提供了新的证据。在防除实践中,应注意防范小蓬草入侵种群和本地种群之间的种子基因流传播,阻止除草剂抗性植株的引入和扩散。     

Seedling establishment of Asteraceae forbs along altitudinal gradients: a comparison of transplant experiments in the native and introduced ranges

Aim Since ecological and evolutionary context changes when a plant species is introduced to a new area, it can be assumed that responses of alien plants to changing conditions along environmental gradients differ from those in their native range. Even if seed availability is not limited, the distribution of alien plants along such a gradient might still be restricted by their ability to germinate and establish as seedlings. In the present study, we aim at testing what factors promote or limit plant invasions during early establishment by using altitude as a model gradient. Location Altitudinal gradients in the Wallowa Mountains (Oregon, USA) and the Swiss Alps (Valais, Switzerland). Methods In transplant experiments along altitudinal gradients, we investigated the early establishment success of eight invasive alien Asteraceae species in their native and introduced ranges in the Wallowa Mountains and the Swiss Alps. Results Seedling recruitment was not restricted to relatively lower altitudes in the introduced range. In addition, we found no evidence for genetic adaptation along the altitudinal gradient in the introduced range, highlighting the importance of phenotypic flexibility for invasions. Furthermore, seedling recruitment was only enhanced by disturbance in the native range where vegetation was comparably dense but not in the introduced range. However, plant development was strongly delayed in the introduced range, probably due to low seasonal water availability. Main Conclusions We conclude that introduced plants, due to their ability to tolerate a wide range of environmental conditions, are not necessarily more restricted in their altitudinal limits than they are in their native range. Furthermore, due to other interacting factors (e.g. different competition situations among ranges), attempts to predict distributions of alien plants in the introduced range that are based on their distributions in the native range may be misleading.     

Evidence for multiple introductions of Centaurea stoebe micranthos (spotted knapweed,Asteraceae) to North America

Invasive species’ success may depend strongly on the genetic resources they maintain through the invasion process. We ask how many introductions have occurred in the North American weed Centaurea stoebe micranthos (Asteraceae), and explore whether genetic diversity and population structure have changed as a result of introduction. We surveyed individuals from 15 European native range sites and 11 North American introduced range sites at six polymorphic microsatellite loci. No significant difference existed in the total number of alleles or in the number of private alleles found in each range. Shannon–Weaver diversity of phenotype frequencies was also not significantly different between the ranges, while expected heterozygosity was significantly higher in the invasive range. Population structure was similar between the native range and the invasive range, and isolation by distance was not significant in either range. Traditional assignment methods did not allocate any North American individuals to the sampled European populations, while Bayesian assignment methods grouped individuals into nine genetic clusters, with three of them shared between North America and Europe. Invasive individuals tended to have genetically admixed profiles, while natives tended to assign more strongly to a single cluster. Many North American individuals share assignment with Romania and Bulgaria, suggesting two separate invasions that have undergone gene flow in North America. Samples from three other invasive range sites were genetically distinct, possibly representing three other unique introductions. Multiple introductions and the maintenance of high genetic diversity through the introduction process may be partially responsible for the invasive success of C. stoebe micranthos.     

Fast life history traits promote invasion success in amphibians and reptiles

Competing theoretical models make different predictions on which life history strategies facilitate growth of small populations. While ‘fast’ strategies allow for rapid increase in population size and limit vulnerability to stochastic events, ‘slow’ strategies and bet‐hedging may reduce variance in vital rates in response to stochasticity. We test these predictions using biological invasions since founder alien populations start small, compiling the largest dataset yet of global herpetological introductions and life history traits. Using state‐of‐the‐art phylogenetic comparative methods, we show that successful invaders have fast traits, such as large and frequent clutches, at both establishment and spread stages. These results, together with recent findings in mammals and plants, support ‘fast advantage’ models and the importance of high potential population growth rate. Conversely, successful alien birds are bet‐hedgers. We propose that transient population dynamics and differences in longevity and behavioural flexibility can help reconcile apparently contrasting results across terrestrial vertebrate classes.     

外来入侵杂草传统生物防治的生态风险及其防范对策

长期大量实践说明,引进天敌防治外来入侵杂草的传统生物防治方法是治理外来入侵杂草的一条切实可行的有效途径,但对其潜在的生态风险——对本土生物的直接或间接不良影响不容忽视。利用传统评价方法预测候选天敌的生态风险存在缺陷,主要表现在：（1）寄主专一性测定过分依赖室内进行的生理寄主范围测定结果,对生态寄主范围（实际寄主范围）问题重视不够,后者指在新环境中的一系列物理和生物条件下的寄主利用预测;（2）在生理寄主范围测定中,过分依赖完成生长发育的可能性,对行为、遗传性状以及系统发育关系重视不够;（3）在风险评估中,过多强调对经济作物的风险,而对自然生态系统的风险重视不够。对此,建议：（1）鼓励对已释放的天敌进行回顾性跟踪研究,从而为杂草生物防治实践提供生态学理论支撑;（2）在运用生物防治手段对付外来入侵杂草实践中,建议采用“有害推论”的预防性原则,以避免在面临入侵生物重大威胁时草率做出释放天敌的决策;（3）在评估候选天敌风险中重视生态效应的风险评估。     

Patterns and drivers of climatic niche dynamics during biological invasions of island-endemic amphibians,reptiles, and birds

Shifts between native and alien climatic niches pose a major challenge for predicting biological invasions. This is particularly true for insular species because geophysical barriers could constrain the realization of their fundamental niches, which may lead to underestimates of their invasion potential. To investigate this idea, we estimated the frequency of shifts between native and alien climatic niches and the magnitude of climatic mismatches using 80,148 alien occurrences of 46 endemic insular amphibian, reptile, and bird species. Then, we assessed the influence of nine potential predictors on climatic mismatches across taxa, based on species' characteristics, native range physical characteristics, and alien range properties. We found that climatic mismatch is common during invasions of endemic insular birds and reptiles: 78.3% and 55.1% of their respective alien records occurred outside of the environmental space of species' native climatic niche. In comparison, climatic mismatch was evident for only 16.2% of the amphibian invasions analyzed. Several predictors significantly explained climatic mismatch, and these varied among taxonomic groups. For amphibians, only native range size was associated with climatic mismatch. For reptiles, the magnitude of climatic mismatch was higher for species with narrow native altitudinal ranges, occurring in topographically complex or less remote islands, as well as for species with larger distances between their native and alien ranges. For birds, climatic mismatch was significantly larger for invasions on continents with higher phylogenetic diversity of the recipient community, and when the invader was more evolutionarily distinct. Our findings highlight that apparently common niche shifts of insular species may jeopardize our ability to forecast their potential invasions using correlative methods based on climatic variables. Also, we show which factors provide additional insights on the actual invasion potential of insular endemic amphibians, reptiles, and birds.