Sociodemographic characteristics and intentions for further births in France

The purpose of this study, which interviewed 356 couples of childbearing age in the Lyon region of France, was to analyze the different attitudes of men and women towards parenthood, and to identify the social and personal characteristics which may modify these attitudes. The 2 groups in the study, the 183 couples who wanted an additional child and the 127 who did not, were compared in relation to socioeconomic status, woman's work status, woman's age at 1st birth, and absence of a child of each sex. (46 couples with conflicting intentions were excluded.) The couples intending to have further children on average had significantly fewer children, were younger, and less frequently had a child of each sex. The other factors were statiscally insignificant. The fertility rate of couples not wanting more children was above the replacement rate of 2.6. The rate for couples intending to have another child was comparable at 2.4, except that the average 5 year age differences between the 2 groups was higher than the usual interval between 2 births, reinforcing the trend toward a model family of 2 or 3 children and greater intervals between consecutive births.     

PTC tasting and group membership

Abstract

Child mortality experience may affect subsequent fertility of couples by exerting the so‐called “physiological” and/or “replacement” responses. The influence of either effect should become apparent upon an examination of individual reproductive histories. The impact of infant and early childhood mortality on subsequent reproductive behavior of couples is analyzed for the presence and intensity of these effects. Historical data are derived from 1,261 families in two communities in western Massachusetts. Relationships of intervals between successive confinements, and parity progression ratios, according to the fate of previous births, are examined. While forms of family limitation have been employed by the study population, indicating that the capacity for replacement existed, the data do not reveal any significant attempt at child replacement.     

Causes and consequences of increase in child survival rates: ethnoepidemiology among the Hmong of Thailand.

The Hmong "hill tribe" minority in Thailand has much higher exposure to factors usually associated with risk of child mortality (high fertility, low status of women, low education, less use of modern medical care for births, exposure to warfare, economic and physical disruption, and poor hygienic conditions) than the rural ethnic Thai population. Nonetheless, infant mortality has declined from over 120 per 1000 to under 50 per 1000 live births among both these populations in the past 30 years. The reason for the rapid increase in child survival among the Hmong appears to be better access to and more use of modern curative and preventive medical care associated with road construction rather than major changes in social or hygienic conditions. Conventional wisdom suggests that high fertility is both a cause and a consequence of high infant and child mortality and that parents will not reduce fertility until they see that mortality has declined. Most Hmong parents recognize the decline in child mortality and attribute it to better access to modern medical care. Most Hmong parents also say that, if they were starting to have children now, they would want to have fewer children. Fear of child death is infrequently mentioned as a motive for having more children, and the perceived decline in child mortality is rarely mentioned as a reason for reduced fertility. Most Hmong parents explain their desired family size in terms of economic conditions rather than perceived risk of child mortality. Results of this study suggest that fertility and child mortality can vary independently of one another and that major reductions in child mortality can be accomplished without waiting for major social changes (e.g., improved education or status of women) or major reductions in fertility.     

The delineation of fertility strategies in a tribal population of India: the Koyas of Koraput District,Orissa

Demographic data collected for a tribal population of India, the Koyas of Koraput District, Orissa, were examined in light of 2 models of reproductive behavior associated with the economic value of children: the replacement effect and son survivorship motivation. Both models are united in the concept that infant/child mortality affects subsequent fertility. The database consists of retrospective fertility histories of Koya women who had completed their reproductive period. The total number was 260, with the total offspring numbering 1407. 2 distinct cohorts of women were formed for the purpose of analysis, separated only by the criterion of offspring survival: women who had experienced infant child mortality (129 women with 739 children); and women who completed their reproductive period without suffering offspring loss of this nature (132 women with 668 children). The cohort without child loss had a mean parity of 5.10, lower than the average parity of 5.73 recorded for the cohort whose reproductive histories included at least 1 infant/child death. Age specific marital fertility and birth interval analyses indicated that this differential was because of biological, not behavioral, factors. The age pattern of fertility of females suffering offspring mortality failed to demonstrate a high rate of childbearing in the later age intervals of the reproductive period, a characteristic pattern of couples attempting to "replace" lost offspring. Birth interval analysis pointed to biological "interval effect," whereby infant/child mortality caused a cessation of lactation and hence a shortening of postpartum amenorrhea. Computer simulation further indicated that the higher fertility differential of the cohort experiencing offspring loss still did not result in high son survivorship values. The findings agree with earlier studies indicating that for predemographic transitional populations, economically motivated fertility strategies are ineffectual.     

Reproduction: the Canadian family in transition

3 trends suggest that the reproductive function of the Canadian family is in transition. 1st, fertility has fallen and remains below the replacement level. In 1985, the total fertility rate was 1.67, the lowest in 60 years. Since 1971, it has not risen above 2.1 births/woman, the replacement level. 2nd, an increasing proportion of women are spending a larger part of their lives without having any children. In the 1981 census, 22% of ever-married women between 15 and 44 years had not yet borne children, compared with only 14% recorded in the 1961 census. While the proportion of women who are childless at the end of their reproductive years has risen only slightly, a larger number of women are postponing having children even as the risk of becoming sterile in the interim becomes greater. The combined effect of postponing both marriage and childbearing will most probably be to increase the proportion of women remaining without children. The 3rd trend is the increasing proportion of women who are having children without getting married. Among the consequences of premarital pregnancy are the stress on single mothers, the need for social assistance, the cost of maintenance programs, and the need for more child care. These changes in attitude toward marriage and family formation could have major implications for individuals and society. A fertility rate below replacement level could be stressful for society, resulting in population decline, and changes in age structure that could negatively affect the economy.     

Teenage motherhood and infant mortality in Bangladesh: maternal age-dependent effect of parity one

Nuptiality norms in rural Bangladesh favour birth during the teenage years. An appreciable proportion of teenage births are, in fact, second births. This study examines the relationship between teenage fertility and high infant mortality. It is hypothesized that if physiological immaturity is responsible, then the younger the mother, the higher would be the mortality risk, and the effect of mother's 'teenage' on mortality in infancy, particularly in the neonatal period, would be higher for the second than the first births. Vital events recorded by the longitudinal demographic surveillance system in Matlab, Bangladesh, in 1990-92 were used. Logistic regression was used to estimate the effects on early and late neonatal (0-3 days and 4-28 days respectively) and post-neonatal mortality of the following variables: mother's age at birth, parity, education and religion, sex of the child, household economic status and exposure to a health intervention programme. The younger the mother, the higher were the odds of her child dying as a neonate, and the odds were higher for second children than first children of teenage mothers. First-born children were at higher odds of dying in infancy than second births if mothers were in their twenties. Unfavourable mother's socioeconomic conditions were weakly, but significantly, associated with higher odds of dying during late neonatal and post-neonatal periods. The results suggest that physical immaturity may be of major importance in determining the relationship between teenage fertility and high neonatal mortality.     

Preference for children and subsequent fertility in Matlab: does wife-husband agreement matter?

This study examines wife-husband preference for children and subsequent fertility for a period of 5 years in the treatment and comparison areas of Matlab, Bangladesh. The two data sets used were: the In-depth Survey (1984) and the Demographic Surveillance System (1984-89). In the case of wives' preferences for children, subsequent childbearing was 13.8% higher than desired in the treatment area and 44.7% higher than desired in the comparison area. After controlling for all variables in the model, the likelihood of giving birth was 1.78 times higher for wives who wanted no more children, but whose husbands did want more, compared with couples where neither husband nor wife wanted more children. For couples where the wife wanted more, but the husband did not want more children, the likelihood of giving birth was 0.63 times that of couples where both the husband and wife wanted more children. This finding suggests that to enhance the decline in fertility in these two areas of Matlab, it will be necessary to motivate both wives and husbands to cease childbearing.     

Premarital childbearing in northwest Kenya: challenging the concept of illegitimacy

A number of African countries, including Kenya, have experienced a marked rise in births among unmarried women. In Western countries, reproduction outside of marriage is assumed to be illegitimate and a social problem. One hypothesis used to explain the increasing incidence of premarital fertility in Africa is a breakdown of traditional social controls by the extended family over the sexual behavior of adolescents. A competing hypothesis suggests that unmarried women use sexual relations to achieve goals such as marriage. Among Turkana pastoralists of northwest Kenya, we find a pattern of premarital birth that fits either hypothesis only loosely. Premarital fertility among the Turkana is both widespread and culturally acceptable, with over 30 per cent of women having at least one child prior to marriage. Although women with premarital births initiate childbearing on average one year earlier than women with only marital births, women's marital status does not influence the length of the interval between first and second births. Marriage among the Turkana is not a social trigger for the onset and continuation of reproduction or a means to legitimate reproduction. Marital status of the parents simply determines the custody of a child. In a premarital birth, the father pays a set fee to the mother's family, and the custody of the child remains permanently with the mother's family. If the parents later marry, the father must purchase custody of the child by another fee at that time. Since the Turkana have experienced few effects of modernization, the existence of such a practice suggests that cultural factors must be taken into account before assessing premarital fertility in Africa as a social problem.     

Does sex of children matter? Implications for fertility in Pakistan

Preference for children of either sex is considered a constraint on fertility decline as it induces many couples to keep adding on surviving children in the hope of having a desired sex composition of children. However, preferences for children of a particular sex may differ in relation to demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of women, traditional values and cultural practices, such as propagating a family name, providing economic advantages, and obtaining a medium of social and economic security in times of illness, unemployment and old age. Utilizing the Pakistan Integrated Household Survey (2001-02), this paper aims at investigating the existence of sex preference and examines sex preference differentials by different attributes of women in Pakistan. The results reveal that there is a desire to have another child in the presence of all children of one sex, either sons or daughters. The desire to have a son with only or mostly daughters, however, is stronger than the desire to have a daughter with only or mostly sons. This behaviour will retard fertility decline unless there is a shift in the desire to have children of both sexes in Pakistan.     

Ideal versus actual: the contradiction in number of children born to Nigerian women

Although desired family size is often different from actual family size, the dynamics of this difference are not well understood. This paper examines the patterns and determinants of the difference between desired and actual number of children (unmet fertility desires) among women aged 15-49 years using pooled data from the 1990, 1999 and 2003 Nigeria Demographic and Health Surveys (NDHSs). The results show that more than two-thirds of the sample have unmet fertility desires (18.1% have more while 52.4% have fewer than desired). It was found that early and late childbearing increased the odds of unmet fertility desires. Also, women with low levels of education, from poor households, rural residents as well as those who had experienced child death were at a higher risk of unmet fertility desires in the multivariate context. The study highlights the policy and programme implications of the findings.     

Maternal factors and infant and child mortality in Bangladesh

Using data from The World Fertility Survey, this study shows that the length of the preceding birth interval was the most important maternal factor influencing infant and child mortality risks in Bangladesh. This was such a crucial factor that its effects remain unaltered whether or not the influences of mother's age at birth and birth order are controlled. Infant and child mortality in Bangladesh can be expected to decline considerably if successive births can be spaced by an interval of at least 1.5 years. Child spacing seems to be the major factor requiring program attention. The effects of mother's education and place of residence on infant and child mortality are independent of the effects of maternal age at birth, birth order, and the preceding birth interval. The higher survival chances of children of educated mothers resulted neither through the age at which childbearing started nor through birth spacing but are likely to be related to their smaller family size and to other non-maternal proximate determinants of early mortality.     

Desire for sons and subsequent fertility in rural India. A 20-year longitudinal study

This paper compares the desired fertility of rural Indian women in 1987 with their actual fertility in 2007. Seventy-one respondents who stated definite fertility intentions and had fewer children than desired in 1987 were re-interviewed 20 years later, as part of a larger study. The results indicated that these women had fewer children than intended and stopped childbearing once they reached, or approximated, their desired number of sons. The majority had been sterilized, indicating broad acceptance of lower fertility among rural women and the success of India's family planning efforts, although the practice of sex determination seems also to have played a role. These findings echo those of an earlier longitudinal study of reproductive intentions and outcomes in the same community, demonstrating the persistence of son preference in determining reproductive behaviour, even in the context of low overall fertility. The paper concludes with a discussion of the policy and programme implications of the study's findings.     

Desired family size, family planning and fertility in Ethiopia

This paper models the proximate determinants of children born to over 13,000 Ethiopian women and of the women's stated preferences for additional births using the data from the Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey 2000. Empirical models for the number of children born to women were estimated using Poisson and ordinal regressions. The results show the importance of variables such as maternal education for smaller family size, and that variables reflecting desired family size are strong predictors of the numbers of children born to women. Secondly, binary logistic models for dichotomous variables for women not wanting more children and if getting pregnant would be a 'big problem' showed non-linear effects of the surviving and 'ideal' number of children. Moreover, the results indicated a desire on the part of women to limit family size, especially as the number of surviving children increased. Probit models were estimated to address potential endogeneity of certain variables. Overall, the results indicated that counselling couples about small family size and increasing the utilization of health care services can lower fertility in Ethiopia.     

Effect of infant mortality on subsequent fertility in Pakistan and Sri Lanka

This study used data from the 1975 World Fertility Surveys in Pakistan and Sri Lanka to examine the association between fertility and infant mortality. A positive association between the mean number of children ever born and the number of child deaths was found in both rural and urban areas of each country. In Pakistan, women with no child loss had 3.3 children ever born while those who lost 1 child had 4.7 children; in Sri Lanka the figures were 3.5 and 5.4 children, respectively. However, child replacement was much less marked when controls were introduced for demographic and socioeconomic factors. When deaths at specific parities were examined, and age and time since previous birth were controlled, child replacement at the 1st parity was reduced to .3 in Pakistan and .2 in Sri Lanka. Further control for a series of socioeconomic factors (e.g. husband's level of education, husband's occupation, household structure, religion, standard of living) reduced the child replacement ratio to .2 children in Pakistan and zero in Sri Lanka. Replacement was slightly more pronounced when there were fewer surviving male children. This analysis suggests that the relationship between infant mortality and fertility is complex. A possibility that could not be explored in this study is that variation in fertilitty may itself be responsible for some of the variation in infant mortality.     

The effects of sex preselection on the sex ratio of families

Advances in the potential for couples to predetermine the sex of their children will have significant consequences for many aspects of society. Among the likely demographic impacts are changes in both population size and the sex ratio. The aim of this article is to assess the effects of sex preselection on the sex ratio of families. The expected family sex ratio is derived and characterized for couples with particular preferences for the sex composition of their families. When couples desire k children of one sex and none of the other, the proportion of children in the completed family that are of the desired sex falls with increasing k. Constraints on total family size further reduce this proportion. When couples have a desire for a balanced composition of one boy and one girl, and when they have a preference for, say, a boy to be born first, they can expect a proportion of boys in the family that at first rises, and then falls, as sex preselection methods improve.     

Changes in contraceptive use and fertility: El Salvador, 1978-88

In El Salvador from 1978 to 1988, contraceptive use among married women 15-44 years of age increased from 34% to 47%, and the total fertility rate declined from 6.3 to 4.6 children per woman. Most of this change took place from 1978 to 1985. Sterilization is the most prevalent method used, but nearly one-half of the women who are sterilized did not use any contraception before their operation. Few young couples use reversible methods of contraception to space births or delay the start of childbearing. On average, women wait 8 years after marriage and have nearly three children before they use contraception.     

The impact of the stopping rule on sex ratio of last births in Vietnam

This study examines the hypothesis that the stopping rule - a traditional postnatal sex selection method where couples decide to cease childbearing once they bear a son - plays a role in high sex ratio of last births (SRLB). The study develops a theoretical framework to demonstrate the operation of the stopping rule in a context of son preference. This framework was used to demonstrate the impact of the stopping rule on the SRLB in Vietnam, using data from the Population Change Survey 2006. The SRLB of Vietnam was high at the level of 130 in the period 1970-2006, and particularly in the period 1986-1995, when sex-selective abortion was not available. Women were 21% more likely to stop childbearing after a male birth compared with a female birth. The SRLB was highest at parity 2 (138.7), particularly in rural areas (153.5), and extremely high (181.9) when the previous birth was female. Given the declining fertility, the stopping rule has a potential synergistic effect with sex-selective abortion to accentuate a trend of one-son families in the population.     

Age at first birth and family size: Evidence from a longitudinal study

Abstract

This paper examines the correlates of the relationship of age at first birth to completed parity, using data from a fifteen‐year longitudinal study. Particular emphasis is given to measures of orientation toward family roles which have been singled out in previous studies as a likely causal factor not yet examined. Women who had an early first birth went on to have larger families than women who postponed childbearing longer. Demographic factors, including premarital pregnancies, unwanted births, and fecundity differentials, did not appear to account for the observed relationship. The hypothesis that early socialization toward traditional female roles might account for the higher fertility of women who began childbearing early was not confirmed. Women with a first birth at a young age were not characterized by more traditional sex‐role behavior or attitudes nor did they express higher initial fertility preferences. They did more often increase their fertility preferences over the inter‐survey period.     

Sex preferences for offspring among men in the western area of Sierra Leone

This study reveals evidence of a significant sex preference among men. Programmes aimed at changing men's views on the importance of the sex of a child must be implemented in order to reduce the desired family size and eventual fertility.     

Fitness and fertility among Kalahari !Kung

In this paper we develop a model that examines fertility and childhood mortality patterns and their relationship to environmental variables. Interactions among environmental variables can account for different fertility patterns and different mixes of these variables can produce similar patterns of fertility. Our model attempts to quantify the idea that there is a trade-off between producing a few children likely to survive to reproductive age and producing a greater number of children with lower chances for survival. The optimum mix of these strategies depends on environmental characteristics. We use the model to make predictions about fertility and mortality patterns among two Bushmen populations of southern Africa--the Ghanzi and Ngamiland !Kung--using data collected by Harpending in 1967-1968. The results do not support explanations of the low fertilities observed among !Kung Bushmen women, in whom it is thought that fitness is maximized by limiting fertility, and show no relationship between mortality and family size in either !Kung population. Instead, the number of offspring reaching reproductive age in both populations increases as their completed family size increases. We examine the effects of sex, birth order, and paternal investment on mortality. No sex ratio differences and no differences in mortality by sex or birth order are present. Infant mortality among women who married more than once is significantly higher than among women who married once, suggesting that paternal care has a significant effect.