气候变化对鸟类影响的研究进展

气候变化对生物多样性的影响已成为热点问题.本文以鸟类为研究对象,根据鸟类受气候变化影响的最新研究成果,综述了气候变化对鸟类的分布、物候和种群等方面的影响.结果表明,在气候变化影响下,鸟类分布向高纬度或高海拔区移动,速度比以往加快,繁殖地和非繁殖地的分布移动变化并不相同,并且多数分布范围缩小,物候期发生复杂变化,种群数量下降明显.文章还讨论了该领域主要的预测和评估方法,以及进化适应等生物因素对气候变化预测结果的影响,除了以往单一的相关性模型外,目前应用最多的是集成模型,而未来最具发展潜力的是机理模型.进化适应方面的研究近来取得新进展,证实了生物个体积极应对气候变化影响的事实,从而对人为模型预测的准确性带来挑战.文章最后进行了总结和展望,结合国外研究经验和我国实际情况,提出一些建议:由于气候变化的影响及其研究是长期性的,从而对鸟类的历史监测数据提出很高的要求,当前我国急需建立一套长期、全面和可靠的鸟类数据监测系统;此外,人们需要综合评估现有各种预测模型的可靠性,在此基础上探索新的研究方法.     

Phenological plasticity is a poor predictor of subalpine plant population performance following experimental climate change

Phenological shifts, changes in the seasonal timing of life cycle events, are among the best documented responses of species to climate change. However, the consequences of these phenological shifts for population dynamics remain unclear. Population growth could be enhanced if species that advance their phenology benefit from longer growing seasons and gain a pre-emptive advantage in resource competition. However, it might also be reduced if phenological advances increase exposure to stresses, such as herbivores and, in colder climates, harsh abiotic conditions early in the growing season. We exposed subalpine grasslands to ~3 K of warming by transplanting intact turfs from 2000 m to 1400 m elevation in the eastern Swiss Alps, with turfs transplanted within the 2000 m site acting as a control. In the first growing season after transplantation, we recorded species’ flowering phenology at both elevations. We also measured species’ cover change for three consecutive years as a measure of plant performance. We used models to estimate species’ phenological plasticity (the response of flowering time to the change in climate) and analysed its relationship with cover changes following climate change. The phenological plasticity of the 18 species in our study varied widely but was unrelated to their changes in cover. Moreover, early- and late-flowering species did not differ in their cover response to warming, nor in the relationship between cover changes and phenological plasticity. These results were replicated in a similar transplant experiment within the same subalpine community, established one year earlier and using larger turfs. We discuss the various ecological processes that can be affected by phenological shifts, and argue why the population-level consequences of these shifts are likely to be species- and context-specific. Our results highlight the importance of testing assumptions about how warming-induced changes in phenotypic traits, like phenology, impact population dynamics.     

Implications of climate change for North American wood warblers (Parulidae)

Since 1912, Neotropical–Nearctic migrant birds may now have up to 20 fewer days to travel between Southern Illinois, where spring is arriving later, and Northern Minnesota, where spring is arriving earlier, to exploit optimal habitat conditions (expanding leaves and caterpillar activity) for refueling and breeding. As case studies of the effect of climate change on bird migration, I analyzed two long‐term data sets of arrival times for eight species of northern breeding migratory wood warblers (Parulidae) gathered over a 100 year period in east‐central Illinois (IL, USA) and a 40 year period in western Minnesota (MN, USA). Six (IL) and seven (MN) of the wood warbler species showed no significant tendency to migrate earlier in response to earlier springs in their breeding range. These results suggest that climate change may force many species of long‐distance migratory songbirds to become uncoupled in the spring from their food resources that are driven by temperature.     

Community and ecosystem responses to recent climate change

There is ample evidence for ecological responses to recent climate change. Most studies to date have concentrated on the effects of climate change on individuals and species, with particular emphasis on the effects on phenology and physiology of organisms as well as changes in the distribution and range shifts of species. However, responses by individual species to climate change are not isolated; they are connected through interactions with others at the same or adjacent trophic levels. Also from this more complex perspective, recent case studies have emphasized evidence on the effects of climate change on biotic interactions and ecosystem services. This review highlights the ‘knowns’ but also ‘unknowns’ resulting from recent climate impact studies and reveals limitations of (linear) extrapolations from recent climate-induced responses of species to expected trends and magnitudes of future climate change. Hence, there is need not only to continue to focus on the impacts of climate change on the actors in ecological networks but also and more intensively to focus on the linkages between them, and to acknowledge that biotic interactions and feedback processes lead to highly complex, nonlinear and sometimes abrupt responses.     

The impact of Quaternary climate oscillations on divergence times and historical population sizes in Thylamys opossums from the Andes

Climate oscillations during the Quaternary altered the distributions of terrestrial animals at a global scale. In mountainous regions, temperature fluctuations may have led to shifts in range size and population size as species tracked their shifting habitats upslope or downslope. This creates the potential for both allopatric speciation and population size fluctuations, as species are either constrained to smaller patches of habitat at higher elevations or able to expand into broader areas at higher latitudes. We considered the impact of climate oscillations on three pairs of marsupial species from the Andes (Thylamys opossums) by inferring divergence times and demographic changes. We compare four different divergence dating approaches, using anywhere from one to 26 loci. Each pair comprises a northern (tropical) lineage and a southern (subtropical to temperate) lineage. We predicted that divergences would have occurred during the last interglacial (LIG) period approximately 125 000 years ago and that population sizes for northern and southern lineages would either contract or expand, respectively. Our results suggest that all three north–south pairs diverged in the late Pleistocene during or slightly after the LIG. The three northern lineages showed no signs of population expansion, whereas two southern lineages exhibited dramatic, recent expansions. We attribute the difference in responses between tropical and subtropical lineages to the availability of ‘montane‐like’ habitats at lower elevations in regions at higher latitudes. We conclude that climate oscillations of the late Quaternary had a powerful impact on the evolutionary history of some of these species, both promoting speciation and leading to significant population size shifts.     

Holding steady: Little change in intensity or timing of bird migration over the Gulf of Mexico

Quantifying the timing and intensity of migratory movements is imperative for understanding impacts of changing landscapes and climates on migratory bird populations. Billions of birds migrate in the Western Hemisphere, but accurately estimating the population size of one migratory species, let alone hundreds, presents numerous obstacles. Here, we quantify the timing, intensity, and distribution of bird migration through one of the largest migration corridors in the Western Hemisphere, the Gulf of Mexico (the Gulf). We further assess whether there have been changes in migration timing or intensity through the Gulf. To achieve this, we integrate citizen science (eBird) observations with 21 years of weather surveillance radar data (1995–2015). We predicted no change in migration timing and a decline in migration intensity across the time series. We estimate that an average of 2.1 billion birds pass through this region each spring en route to Nearctic breeding grounds. Annually, half of these individuals pass through the region in just 18 days, between April 19 and May 7. The western region of the Gulf showed a mean rate of passage 5.4 times higher than the central and eastern regions. We did not detect an overall change in the annual numbers of migrants (2007–2015) or the annual timing of peak migration (1995–2015). However, we found that the earliest seasonal movements through the region occurred significantly earlier over time (1.6 days decade^?1). Additionally, body mass and migration distance explained the magnitude of phenological changes, with the most rapid advances occurring with an assemblage of larger‐bodied shorter‐distance migrants. Our results provide baseline information that can be used to advance our understanding of the developing implications of climate change, urbanization, and energy development for migratory bird populations in North America.     

Bird population trends are linearly affected by climate change along species thermal ranges

Beyond the effects of temperature increase on local population trends and on species distribution shifts, how populations of a given species are affected by climate change along a species range is still unclear. We tested whether and how species responses to climate change are related to the populations locations within the species thermal range. We compared the average 20 year growth rates of 62 terrestrial breeding birds in three European countries along the latitudinal gradient of the species ranges. After controlling for factors already reported to affect bird population trends (habitat specialization, migration distance and body mass), we found that populations breeding close to the species thermal maximum have lower growth rates than those in other parts of the thermal range, while those breeding close to the species thermal minimum have higher growth rates. These results were maintained even after having controlled for the effect of latitude per se. Therefore, the results cannot solely be explained by latitudinal clines linked to the geographical structure in local spring warming. Indeed, we found that populations are not just responding to changes in temperature at the hottest and coolest parts of the species range, but that they show a linear graded response across their European thermal range. We thus provide insights into how populations respond to climate changes. We suggest that projections of future species distributions, and also management options and conservation assessments, cannot be based on the assumption of a uniform response to climate change across a species range or at range edges only.     

Morphological constraints on changing avian migration phenology

Many organisms at northern latitudes have responded to climate warming by advancing their spring phenology. Birds are known to show earlier timing of spring migration and reproduction in response to warmer springs. However, species show heterogeneous phenological responses to climate warming, with those that have not advanced or have delayed migration phenology experiencing population declines. Although some traits (such as migration distance) partly explain heterogeneity in phenological responses, the factors affecting interspecies differences in the responsiveness to climate warming have yet to be fully explored. In this comparative study, we investigate whether variation in wing aspect ratio (reflecting relative wing narrowness), an ecomorphological trait that is strongly associated with flight efficiency and migratory behaviour, affects the ability to advance timing of spring migration during 1960–2006 in a set of 80 European migratory bird species. Species with larger aspect ratio (longer and narrower wings) showed smaller advancement of timing of spring migration compared to species with smaller aspect ratio (shorter and wider wings) while controlling for phylogeny, migration distance and other life‐history traits. In turn, migration distance positively predicted aspect ratio across species. Hence, species that are better adapted to migration appear to be more constrained in responding phenologically to rapid climate warming by advancing timing of spring migration. Our findings corroborate the idea that aspect ratio is a major evolutionary correlate of migration, and suggest that selection for energetically efficient flights, as reflected by high aspect ratio, may hinder phenotypically plastic/microevolutionary adjustments of migration phenology to ongoing climatic changes.     

Climate change reduces reproductive success of an Arctic herbivore through trophic mismatch

In highly seasonal environments, offspring production by vertebrates is timed to coincide with the annual peak of resource availability. For herbivores, this resource peak is represented by the annual onset and progression of the plant growth season. As plant phenology advances in response to climatic warming, there is potential for development of a mismatch between the peak of resource demands by reproducing herbivores and the peak of resource availability. For migratory herbivores, such as caribou, development of a trophic mismatch is particularly likely because the timing of their seasonal migration to summer ranges, where calves are born, is cued by changes in day length, while onset of the plant-growing season on the same ranges is cued by local temperatures. Using data collected since 1993 on timing of calving by caribou and timing of plant growth in West Greenland, we document the consequences for reproductive success of a developing trophic mismatch between caribou and their forage plants. As mean spring temperatures at our study site have risen by more than 4 degrees C, caribou have not kept pace with advancement of the plant-growing season on their calving range. As a consequence, offspring mortality has risen and offspring production has dropped fourfold.     

Potential decoupling of trends in distribution area and population size of species with climate change

Global climates are changing rapidly and biological responses are becoming increasingly apparent. Here, we use empirical abundance patterns across an altitudinal gradient and predicted altitudinal range shifts to estimate change in total population size relative to distribution area in response to climate warming. Adopting this approach we predict that, for nine out of 12 species of regionally endemic birds, total population size will decline more rapidly than distribution area with increasing temperature. Two species showed comparable loss and one species exhibited a slower decline in population size with change in distribution area. Population size change relative to distribution area was greatest for those species that occurred at highest density in the middle of the gradient. The disproportional loss in population size reported here suggests that extinction risk associated with climate change can be more severe than that expected from decline in distribution area alone. Therefore, if we are to make accurate predictions of the impacts of climate change on the conservation status of individual species, it is crucial that we consider the spatial patterns of abundance within the distribution and not just the overall range of the species.     

Variable shifts in spring and autumn migration phenology in North American songbirds associated with climate change

Monitoring studies find that the timing of spring bird migration has advanced in recent decades, especially in Europe. Results for autumn migration have been mixed. Using data from Powdermill Nature Reserve, a banding station in western Pennsylvania, USA, we report an analysis of migratory timing in 78 songbird species from 1961 to 2006. Spring migration became significantly earlier over the 46-year period, and autumn migration showed no overall change. There was much variation among species in phenological change, especially in autumn. Change in timing was unrelated to summer range (local vs. northern breeders) or the number of broods per year, but autumn migration became earlier in neotropical migrants and later in short-distance migrants. The migratory period for many species lengthened because late phases of migration remained unchanged or grew later as early phases became earlier. There was a negative correlation between spring and autumn in long-term change, and this caused dramatic adjustments in the amount of time between migrations: the intermigratory periods of 10 species increased or decreased by > 15 days. Year-to-year changes in timing were correlated with local temperature (detrended) and, in autumn, with a regional climate index (detrended North Atlantic Oscillation). These results illustrate a complex and dynamic annual cycle in songbirds, with responses to climate change differing among species and migration seasons.     

Avian migrants adjust migration in response to environmental conditions en route

The onset of migration in birds is assumed to be primarily under endogenous control in long-distance migrants. Recently, climate changes appear to have been driving a rapid change in breeding area arrival. However, little is known about the climatic factors affecting migratory birds during the migration cycle, or whether recently reported phenological changes are caused by plastic behavioural responses or evolutionary change. Here, we investigate how environmental conditions in the wintering areas as well as en route towards breeding areas affect timing of migration. Using data from 1984 to 2004 covering the entire migration period every year from observatories located in the Middle East and northern Europe, we show that passage of the Sahara Desert is delayed and correlated with improved conditions in the wintering areas. By contrast, migrants travel more rapidly through Europe, and adjust their breeding area arrival time in response to improved environmental conditions en route. Previous studies have reported opposing results from a different migration route through the Mediterranean region (Italy). We argue that the simplest explanation for different phenological patterns at different latitudes and between migratory routes appears to be phenotypic responses to spatial variability in conditions en route.     

Continental-scale tree population response to rapid climate change, competition and disturbance

Aim  Using a new approach to analyse fossil pollen data, we investigate temporal and spatial patterns in Populus ( poplar, cottonwood, aspen) from the Late Glacial to the present at regional to continental scales.
Location  North America.
Methods  We extracted data on the timing and magnitude of the maximum value of Populus pollen from each pollen diagram in the North American Pollen Database (NAPD). The information was plotted in histograms of 150-year bins to identify times when Populus was abundant on the landscape. We also mapped the maximum values to identify spatial patterns and their causes.
Results  Our analyses show that there have been several periods since the Late Glacial when Populus was abundant on the landscape: (1) from 12.35 to 12.65 kyr  bp , in eastern North America, largely in response to the opening of the forest following the onset of the Younger Dryas; (2) from 10.85 to 11.75 kyr  bp , following the termination of the Younger Dryas; and (3) during the last 150 years, as land was cleared for agricultural use, especially in the midwestern United States.
Main conclusion  Since the Late Glacial, changes in the abundance of Populus were caused more by the effects of abrupt climate change on its major competitors, rather than the direct effects of climate on Populus itself.     

Migratory diversity predicts population declines in birds

Declines in migratory species are a pressing concern worldwide, but the mechanisms underpinning these declines are not fully understood. We hypothesised that species with greater within‐population variability in migratory movements and destinations, here termed ‘migratory diversity’, might be more resilient to environmental change. To test this, we related map‐based metrics of migratory diversity to recent population trends for 340 European breeding birds. Species that occupy larger non‐breeding ranges relative to breeding, a characteristic we term ‘migratory dispersion’, were less likely to be declining than those with more restricted non‐breeding ranges. Species with partial migration strategies (i.e. overlapping breeding and non‐breeding ranges) were also less likely to be declining than full migrants or full residents, an effect that was independent of migration distance. Recent rates of advancement in Europe‐wide spring arrival date were greater for partial migrants than full migrants, suggesting that migratory diversity may also help facilitate species responses to climate change.     

Long‐term climate impacts on breeding bird phenology in Pennsylvania,USA

Climate change is influencing bird phenology worldwide, but we still lack information on how many species are responding over long temporal periods. We assessed how climate affected passerine reproductive timing and productivity at a constant effort mist‐netting station in western Pennsylvania using a model comparison approach. Several lines of evidence point to the sensitivity of 21 breeding passerines to climate change over five decades. The trends for temperature and precipitation over 53 years were slightly positive due to intraseasonal variation, with the greatest temperature increases and precipitation declines in early spring. Regardless of broodedness, migration distance, or breeding season, 13 species hatched young earlier over time with most advancing >3 days per decade. Warm springs were associated with earlier captures of juveniles for 14 species, ranging from 1‐ to 3‐day advancement for every 1 °C increase. This timing was less likely to be influenced by spring precipitation; nevertheless, higher rainfall was usually associated with later appearance of juveniles and breeding condition in females. Temperature and precipitation were positively related to productivity for seven and eleven species, respectively, with negative relations evident for six and eight species. We found that birds fledged young earlier with increasing spring temperatures, potentially benefiting some multibrooded species. Indeed, some extended the duration of breeding in these warm years. Yet, a few species fledged fewer juveniles in warmer and wetter seasons, indicating that expected future increases could be detrimental to locally breeding populations. Although there were no clear relationships between life history traits and breeding phenology, species‐specific responses to climate found in our study provide novel insights into phenological flexibility in songbirds. Our research underscores the value of long‐term monitoring studies and the importance of continuing constant effort sampling in the face of climate change.     

Modelling changes in species’ abundance in response to projected climate change

Aim Existing climate envelope models give an indication of broad scale shifts in distribution, but do not specifically provide information on likely future population changes useful for conservation prioritization and planning. We demonstrate how these techniques can be developed to model likely future changes in absolute density and population size as a result of climate change. Location Great Britain. Methods Generalized linear models were used to model breeding densities of two northerly‐ and two southerly‐distributed bird species as a function of climate and land use. Models were built using count data from extensive national bird monitoring data and incorporated detectability to estimate absolute abundance. Projections of likely future changes in the distribution and abundance of these species were made by applying these models to projections of future climate change under two emissions scenarios. Results Models described current spatial variation in abundance for three of the four species and produced modelled current estimates of national populations that were similar to previously published estimates for all species. Climate change was projected to result in national population declines in the two northerly‐distributed species, with declines for Eurasian curlew Numenius arquata projected to be particularly severe. Conversely, the abundances of the two southerly distributed species were projected to increase nationally. Projected maps of future abundance may be used to identify priority areas for the future conservation of each species. Main conclusions The analytical methods provide a framework to make projections of impacts of climate change on species abundance, rather than simply projected range changes. Outputs may be summarized at any spatial scale, providing information to inform future conservation planning at national, regional and local scales. Results suggest that as a consequence of climate change, northerly distributed bird species in Great Britain are likely to become an increasingly high conservation priority within the UK.     

Keeping up with a warming world; assessing the rate of adaptation to climate change

The pivotal question in the debate on the ecological effects of climate change is whether species will be able to adapt fast enough to keep up with their changing environment. If we establish the maximal rate of adaptation, this will set an upper limit to the rate at which temperatures can increase without loss of biodiversity.The rate of adaptation will primarily be set by the rate of microevolution since (i) phenotypic plasticity alone is not sufficient as reaction norms will no longer be adaptive and hence microevolution on the reaction norm is needed, (ii) learning will be favourable to the individual but cannot be passed on to the next generations, (iii) maternal effects may play a role but, as with other forms of phenotypic plasticity, the response of offspring to the maternal cues will no longer be adaptive in a changing environment, and (iv) adaptation via immigration of individuals with genotypes adapted to warmer environments also involves microevolution as these genotypes are better adapted in terms of temperature, but not in terms of, for instance, photoperiod.Long-term studies on wild populations with individually known animals play an essential role in detecting and understanding the temporal trends in life-history traits, and to estimate the heritability of, and selection pressures on, life-history traits. However, additional measurements on other trophic levels and on the mechanisms underlying phenotypic plasticity are needed to predict the rate of microevolution, especially under changing conditions.Using this knowledge on heritability of, and selection on, life-history traits, in combination with climate scenarios, we will be able to predict the rate of adaptation for different climate scenarios. The final step is to use ecoevolutionary dynamical models to make the link to population viability and from there to biodiversity loss for those scenarios where the rate of adaptation is insufficient.     

Rapid change in host use of the common cuckoo Cuculus canorus linked to climate change

Parasites require synchrony with their hosts so if host timing changes with climate change, some parasites may decline and eventually go extinct. Residents and short-distance migrant hosts of the brood parasitic common cuckoo, Cuculus canorus, have advanced their phenology in response to climate change more than long-distance migrants, including the cuckoo itself. Because different parts of Europe show different degrees of climate change, we predicted that use of residents or short-distance migrants as hosts should have declined in areas with greater increase in spring temperature. Comparing relative frequency of parasitism of the two host categories in 23 European countries before and after 1990, when spring temperatures in many areas had started to increase, we found that relative parasitism of residents and short-distance migrants decreased. This change in host use was positively related to increase in spring temperature, consistent with the prediction that relative change in phenology for different migrant classes drives host-use patterns. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that climate change affects the relative abundance of different host races of the common cuckoo.     

Warming, plant phenology and the spatial dimension of trophic mismatch for large herbivores

Temporal advancement of resource availability by warming in seasonal environments can reduce reproductive success of vertebrates if their own reproductive phenology does not also advance with warming. Indirect evidence from large-scale analyses suggests, however, that migratory vertebrates might compensate for this by tracking phenological variation across landscapes. Results from our two-year warming experiment combined with seven years of observations of plant phenology and offspring production by caribou (Rangifer tarandus) in Greenland, however, contradict evidence from large-scale analyses. At spatial scales relevant to the foraging horizon of individual herbivores, spatial variability in plant phenology was reduced--not increased--by both experimental and observed warming. Concurrently, offspring production by female caribou declined with reductions in spatial variability in plant phenology. By highlighting the spatial dimension of trophic mismatch, these results reveal heretofore unexpected adverse consequences of climatic warming for herbivore population ecology.     

Different trends of neighboring populations of Lesser Kestrel: Effects of climate and other environmental conditions

The sensitivity of population trends to the climate and environment is generally considered a species-specific trait. However, evidence that populations may show different responses to the climate and environmental conditions is growing. Whether this differential sensitivity may arise even among neighboring populations remains elusive. We compared the trends of two neighboring populations of the Lesser Kestrel Falco naumanni, using data from a 12-year survey of 158 colonies in Sicily, Italy; the two populations inhabiting a lowland and an highland area, respectively. Population trends were modeled through the TRIM algorithms implemented in R (package rtrim). A reversed U-shaped population trend was observed in the lowland, while the highland population showed oscillations around a stable trend. Sahel rainfall 2 years before each annual survey significantly affected population variation in the lowland, while rainfall in March and an index of primary productivity in the breeding areas affected population variation in the highland. This suggests that the population in the lowland may be limited mainly by winter survival in Sahel, because the lowland may be an optimal breeding area for this species. In contrast, the highland population, which occupies a different part of the climatic niche of the species, may be limited mainly by reproductive output, because rainfall in March and the primary productivity in May could represent prey availability immediately before and during the breeding months. Overall, our findings suggest that population-specific environmental sensitivity might occur even over small (<100 km) geographical scales, highlighting the need for population-specific conservation strategies.