Parasite prevalence and the size of host populations: an experimental test

Although important in epidemiological theory, the relationship between the size of host populations and the prevalence of parasites has not been investigated empirically. Commonly used models suggest no relationship, but this prediction is sensitive to assumptions about parasite transmission. In laboratory populations, I manipulated the size of Tribolium castaneum flour beetle populations and measured the prevalence and distribution of a parasitic mite, Acarophenax tribolii. I found that parasite prevalence did not vary for a wide range of host population sizes. However, prevalence was lower in populations with less than 40 hosts. This effect cannot be attributed to changes in host population density because host density was held constant among treatments. The reduction in prevalence of small populations below a threshold that I observed is predicted by the extinction debt model, but it is not expected from models of host-parasite interactions that assume density-dependent transmission. The distribution of parasites, measured using Lloyd's patchiness index, was not affected by host population size. The mean crowding of parasites, however, was negatively related with host density. Finally, the prevalence of parasites in large populations did not differ from that found in sets of smaller patches as long as the smaller populations in aggregate were equivalent in size to the large population.     

EEG abnormalities, epilepsy and regression in autism: a review

Autism is associated with a high frequency of epileptiform EEG abnormalities (prevalence range 10.3-72.4%) and epilepsy (prevalence range 0-44.5%). A significant subgroup of autistic children (20-49%) experience autistic regression. The relationship among EEG abnormalities, epilepsy, and regression in autistic patients is not yet well understood. In this review, the current knowledge of the relationship is summarized. The evidence from clinical studies does not support the view that EEG abnormalities play a role in autistic regression. The majority of studies also failed to find any significant relationship between epilepsy and autistic regression. However, some results indicated that the higher the prevalence of epilepsy in the sample, the greater the probability of there being a significant association between epilepsy and autistic regression. Further research on the topic is needed.     

Evaluating the diagnostic test accuracy of molecular xenomonitoring methods for characterising the community burden of Onchocerciasis

BackgroundMolecular xenomonitoring (MX), the detection of parasite nucleic acid in the vector population, is recommended for onchocerciasis surveillance in elimination settings. However, the sensitivity of MX for detecting onchocerciasis-positive communities has not previously been evaluated. MX may have additional applications for control programmes but its utility is restricted by a limited understanding of the relationship between MX results and human prevalence.MethodsWe conducted a systematic review of studies reporting the prevalence of Onchocerca volvulus DNA in wild-caught Simulium spp. flies (MX rate) and corresponding prevalence of microfilaria (mf) in humans. We evaluated the sensitivity of MX for detecting onchocerciasis-positive communities and describe the characteristics of studies with reduced sensitivity. We conducted a linear regression to evaluate the relationship between mf prevalence and MX rate.ResultsWe identified 15 relevant studies, with 13 studies comprising 34 study communities included in the quantitative analyses. Most communities were at advanced stages towards elimination and had no or extremely low human prevalence. MX detected positive flies in every study area with >1% mf prevalence, with the exception of one study conducted in the Venezuelan Amazonian focus. We identified a significant relationship between the two measurements, with mf prevalence accounting for half of the variation in MX rate (R² 0.50, p<0.001).ConclusionMX is sensitive to communities with ongoing onchocerciasis transmission. It has potential to predict human mf prevalence, but further data is required to understand this relationship, particularly from MX surveys conducted earlier in control programmes before transmission has been interrupted.     

Delayed density-dependent prevalence of Sin Nombre virus infection in deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus) in central and western Montana

Understanding how transmission of zoonoses takes place within reservoir populations, such as Sin Nombre virus (SNV) among deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus), is important in determining the risk of exposure to other hosts, including humans. In this study, we examined the relationship between deer mouse populations and the prevalence of antibodies to SNV, a system where the effect of host population abundance on transmission is debated. We examined the relationship between abundance of deer mice in late summer-early autumn and SNV antibody prevalence the following spring-early summer (termed delayed density-dependent [DDD] prevalence of infection) at both regional and local scales, using 12 live-trapping grids for 11-14 yr, across central and western Montana. When all trapping grids were combined (regional scale), there was a significant DDD relationship for individual months and when months within seasons were averaged. However, within individual grids (local scale), evidence of DDD prevalence of infection was observed consistently at only one location. These findings suggest that, although there is evidence of DDD prevalence of infection at regional scales, it is not always apparent at local scales, possibly because the regional pattern of DDD infection prevalence is driven by differences in abundance and prevalence among sites, rather than in autumn-spring delays. Transmission of SNV may be more complex than the original hypothesis of autumn-spring delayed density dependence suggests. This complexity is also supported by recent modeling studies. Empirical investigations are needed to determine the duration and determinants of time-lagged abundance and antibody prevalence. Our study suggests predicting local, human exposure risk to SNV in spring, based on deer mouse abundance in autumn, is unlikely to be a reliable public health tool, particularly at local scales.     

The impact of rising temperatures on the prevalence of coral diseases and its predictability: A global meta-analysis

Coral reefs are under threat from disease as climate change alters environmental conditions. Rising temperatures exacerbate coral disease, but this relationship is likely complex as other factors also influence coral disease prevalence. To better understand this relationship, we meta-analytically examined 108 studies for changes in global coral disease over time alongside temperature, expressed using average summer sea surface temperature (SST) and cumulative heat stress as weekly sea surface temperature anomalies (WSSTAs). We found that both rising average summer SST and WSSTA were associated with global increases in the mean and variability in coral disease prevalence. Global coral disease prevalence tripled, reaching 9.92% in the 25 years examined, and the effect of ‘year’ became more stable (i.e. prevalence has lower variance over time), contrasting the effects of the two temperature stressors. Regional patterns diverged over time and differed in response to average summer SST. Our model predicted that, under the same trajectory, 76.8% of corals would be diseased globally by 2100, even assuming moderate average summer SST and WSSTA. These results highlight the need for urgent action to mitigate coral disease. Mitigating the impact of rising ocean temperatures on coral disease is a complex challenge requiring global discussion and further study.     

Distribution and abundance of parasite nematodes: ecological specialisation,phylogenetic constraint or simply epidemiology?

We investigate the patterns of abundance‐spatial occupancy relationships of adult parasite nematodes in mammal host populations (828 populations of nematodes from 66 different species of terrestrial mammals). A positive relationship between mean parasite abundance and host occupancy, i.e. prevalence, is found which suggests that local abundance is linked to spatial distribution across species. Moreover, the frequency distribution of the parasite prevalence is bimodal, which is consistent with a core‐satellite species distribution. In addition, a strong positive relationship between the abundance (log‐transformed) and its variance (log‐transformed) is observed, the distribution of worm abundance being lognormally distributed when abundance values have been corrected for host body size.
Hanski et al. proposed three distinct hypotheses, which might account for the positive relationship between abundance and prevalence in free and associated organisms: 1) ecological specialisation, 2) sampling artefact, and 3) metapopulation dynamics. In addition, Gaston and co‐workers listed five additional hypotheses. Four solutions were not applicable to our parasitological data due to the lack of relevant information in most host‐parasite studies. The fifth hypothesis, i.e. the confounded effects exerted by common history on observed patterns of parasite distributions, was considered using a phylogeny‐based comparison method. Testing the four possible hypotheses, we obtained the following results: 1) the variation of parasite distribution across host species is not due to phylogenetic confounding effects; 2) the positive relationship between mean abundance and prevalence of nematodes may not result from an ecological specialisation, i.e. host specificity, of these parasites; 3) both a positive abundance‐prevalence relationship and a negative coefficient of variation of abundance‐prevalence relationship are likely to occur which corroborates the sampling model developed by Hanski et al. We argue that demographic explanations may be of particular importance to explain the patterns of bimodality of prevalence when testing Monte‐Carlo simulations using epidemiological modelling frameworks, and when considering empirical findings. We conclude that both the bimodal distribution of parasite prevalence and the mean‐variance power function simply result from demographic and stochastic patterns (highlighted by the sampling model), which present compelling evidence that nematode parasite species might adjust their spatial distribution and burden in mammal hosts for simple epidemiological reasons.     

Antibiotic Followed by a Potential Probiotic Increases Brown Adipose Tissue,Reduces Biometric Measurements,and Changes Intestinal Microbiota Phyla in Obesity

Probiotics and Antimicrobial Proteins - The development of adjuvant therapies for obesity treatment is justified by the high prevalence of this disease worldwide, and the relationship between...     

Effects of predation on host-pathogen dynamics in SIR models

The integration of infectious disease epidemiology with community ecology is an active area of research. Recent studies using SI models without acquired immunity have demonstrated that predation can suppress infectious disease levels. The authors recently showed that incorporating immunity (SIR models) can produce a “hump”-shaped relationship between disease prevalence and predation pressure; thus, low to moderate levels of predation can boost prevalence in hosts with acquired immunity. Here we examine the robustness of this pattern to realistic extensions of a basic SIR model, including density-dependent host regulation, predator saturation, interference, frequency-dependent transmission, predator numerical responses, and explicit resource dynamics. A non-monotonic relationship between disease prevalence and predation pressure holds across all these scenarios. With saturation, there can also be complex responses of mean host abundance to increasing predation, as well as bifurcations leading to unstable cycles (epidemics) and pathogen extinction at larger predator numbers. Firm predictions about the relationship between prevalence and predation thus require one to consider the complex interplay of acquired immunity, host regulation, and foraging behavior of the predator.     

Prevalence of avian influenza and host ecology

Waterfowl and shorebirds are common reservoirs of the low pathogenic subtypes of avian influenza (LPAI), which are easily transmitted to poultry and become highly pathogenic. As the risk of virus transmission depends on the prevalence of LPAI in host-reservoir systems, there is an urgent need for understanding how host ecology, life history and behaviour can affect virus prevalence in the wild. To test for the most important ecological correlates of LPAI virus prevalence at the interspecific level, we applied a comparative analysis by using quantitative data on 30 bird species. We controlled for similarity among species due to common descent, differences in study effort and for covariance among ecological variables. We found that LPAI prevalence is a species-specific attribute and is a consequence of virus susceptibility, as it was negatively associated with the relative size of the bursa of Fabricius, an estimate of juvenile immune function. Species that migrate long distances have elevated prevalence of LPAI independent of phylogeny and other confounding factors. There was also a positive interspecific relationship between the frequency of surface feeding and virus prevalence, but this was sensitive to phylogenetic relatedness of species. Feeding in marine habitats is apparently associated with lower virus prevalence, but the effect of water salinity is likely to be indirect and affected by phylogeny. Our results imply that virus transmission via surface waters and frequent intra- and interspecific contacts during long migration are the major risk factors of avian influenza in the wild. However, the link between exploitation of surface waters and LPAI prevalence appears to be weaker than previously thought. This is the first interspecific study that provides statistical evidence that host ecology, immunity and phylogeny have important consequence for virus prevalence.     

Prevalence and genetic diversity of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in Central African island and continental amphibian communities

The fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) infects hundreds of amphibian species and is implicated in global amphibian declines. Bd is comprised of several lineages that differ in pathogenicity, thus, identifying which Bd strains are present in a given amphibian community is essential for understanding host–pathogen dynamics. The presence of Bd has been confirmed in Central Africa, yet vast expanses of this region have not yet been surveyed for Bd prevalence, and the genetic diversity of Bd is largely unknown in this part of the world. Using retrospective surveys of museum specimens and contemporary field surveys, we estimated the prevalence of Bd in Central African island and continental amphibian assemblages, and genotyped strains of Bd present in each community. Our sampling of museum specimens included just a few individuals collected in the Gulf of Guinea archipelago prior to 1998, yet one of these individuals was Bd‐positive indicating that the pathogen has been on Bioko Island since 1966. We detected Bd across all subsequent sample years in our study and found modest support for a relationship between host life history and Bd prevalence, a positive relationship between prevalence and host community species richness, and no significant relationship between elevation and prevalence. The Global Panzootic Lineage (BdGPL) was present in all the island and continental amphibian communities we surveyed. Our results are consistent with a long‐term and widespread distribution of Bd in amphibian communities of Gabon and the Gulf of Guinea archipelago.     

Socioeconomic status and the prevalence of fever in children under age five: evidence from four sub-Saharan African countries

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: The burden of fevers remains enormous in sub-Saharan Africa. While several efforts at reducing the burden of fever have been made at the macro level, the relationship between socioeconomic status and fever prevalence has been inconclusive at the household and individual levels. The purpose of this study was to examine how individual and household socioeconomic status influences the prevalence of fever among children under age five in four sub-Saharan African countries. METHODS: The study used data from the 2008 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) from Ghana, Nigeria, Kenya and Sierra Leone with a total of 38,990 children below age five. A multi-level random effects logistic model was fitted to examine the socioeconomic factors that influence the prevalence of fever in the two weeks preceding the survey. Data from the four countries were also combined to estimate this relationship, after country-specific analysis. RESULTS: The results show that children from wealthier households reported lower prevalence of fever in Ghana, Nigeria and Kenya. Result from the combined dataset shows that children from wealthier households were less likely to report fever. In general, vaccination against fever-related diseases and the use of improved toilet facility reduces fever prevalence. The use of bed nets by children and mothers did not show consistent relationship across the countries. CONCLUSION: Poverty does not only influence prevalence of fever at the macro level as shown in other studies but also the individual and household levels. Policies directed towards preventing childhood fevers should take a close account of issues of poverty alleviation. There is also the need to ensure that prevention and treatment mechanisms directed towards fever related diseases (such as malaria, pneumonia, measles, diarrhoea, polio, tuberculosis etc) are accessible and effectively used.     

Spatial variation in population density across the geographical range in helminth parasites of yellow perch Perca flavescens

The abundance of a species is not constant across its geographical range; it has often been assumed to decrease from the centre of a species’ range toward its margins. The central assumption of this “favourable centre” model is tested for the first time with parasites, using different species of helminth parasites exploiting fish as definitive hosts. Data on prevalence (percentage of hosts that are infected) and abundance (mean no. parasites per host) were compiled for 8 helminth species occurring in 23 populations of yellow perch Perca flavescens, from continental North America. For each parasite species, correlations were computed between latitude and both local prevalence and abundance values. In addition, the relationships between the relative prevalence or abundance in one locality and the distance between that locality and the one where the maximum value was reported, were assessed separately for each species to determine whether abundance tends to decrease away from the presumed centre of the range, where it peaks. For both the cestode Proteocephalus pearsei and the acanthocephalan Leptorhynchoides thecatus, there was a positive relationship between prevalence or abundance and the latitude of the sampled population. There was also a significant negative relationship between relative prevalence and the distance from the locality showing the maximum value in P. pearsei, but no such pattern was observed for the other 7 parasite species. Since this single significant decrease in prevalence with increasing distance from the peak value may be confounded by a latitudinal gradient, it appears that the distribution of abundance in parasites of perch does not follow the favourable centre model. This means that the environmental variables affecting the density of parasites (host availability, abiotic conditions) do not show pronounced spatial autocorrelation, with nearby sites not necessarily providing more similar conditions for the growth of parasite populations than distant sites.     

Process of building biologically based dose-response models for developmental defects.

The problem of developing biologically-based dose-response models is addressed for predicting the prevalence of birth defects at low doses of toxic chemicals administered during pregnancy. To illustrate the process of incorporating biological information, a model is postulated to predict the prevalence of cleft palate for a chemical that reduces embryonic/fetal growth, which results in inadequate palatal cells for closure. Experimental bioassay data examining the prevalence of cleft palate in mice exposed to the herbicide 2,4,5-T are used to illustrate the process. With the limited data available, it is necessary to assume a model for cell growth and the relationship between the cell growth rate parameter and dose of 2,4,5-T. Also, a relationship between cleft palate prevalence and growth is assumed and then checked with experimental data. The purpose of the paper is not to provide a universal biologically based dose-response model for cleft palate, but rather to demonstrate the extent, and type of information and data required. It remains to be seen if the form of the model is appropriate for chemicals that primarily produce embryo/fetal malformations or death via reduced or delayed cellular growth.     

Epilepsy in Onchocerciasis Endemic Areas: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Population-Based Surveys

Objective

We sought to evaluate the relationship between onchocerciasis prevalence and that of epilepsy using available data collected at community level.

Design

We conducted a systematic review and meta-regression of available data.

Data Sources

Electronic and paper records on subject area ever produced up to February 2008.

Review Methods

We searched for population-based studies reporting on the prevalence of epilepsy in communities for which onchocerciasis prevalence was available or could be estimated. Two authors independently assessed eligibility and study quality and extracted data. The estimation of point prevalence of onchocerciasis was standardized across studies using appropriate correction factors. Variation in epilepsy prevalence was then analyzed as a function of onchocerciasis endemicity using random-effect logistic models.

Results

Eight studies from west (Benin and Nigeria), central (Cameroon and Central African Republic) and east Africa (Uganda, Tanzania and Burundi) met the criteria for inclusion and analysis. Ninety-one communities with a total population of 79,270 individuals screened for epilepsy were included in the analysis. The prevalence of epilepsy ranged from 0 to 8.7% whereas that of onchocerciasis ranged from 5.2 to 100%. Variation in epilepsy prevalence was consistent with a logistic function of onchocerciasis prevalence, with epilepsy prevalence being increased, on average, by 0.4% for each 10% increase in onchocerciasis prevalence.

Conclusion

These results give further evidence that onchocerciasis is associated with epilepsy and that the disease burden of onchocerciasis might have to be re-estimated by taking into account this relationship.     

Mathematical formulation and studies of the risk parameters involved in HIV transmission

The probability of becoming infected with HIV is formulated in terms of the total number of sexual contacts (N), the probability that a sexual act is infectious (r) and the prevalence (p). Using the appropriate equations we studied the effect of reducing each of the risk factors on lowering the probability of infection. We show that for many realistic situations the probability of becoming infected by multiple partners is equal to the probability of becoming infected by one partner in a monogamous relationship given that the prevalence is the same in both cases; however if the multiple partners are chosen over time from a pool of a growing prevalence, then one is better off in a monogamous relationship where that partner is chosen early in the epidemic.     

Characterization of the mycoplasmal conjunctivitis epizootic in a house finch population in the southeastern USA

An epidemiological study of the prevalence of mycoplasmal conjunctivitis in the house finch (Carpodacus mexicanus) was conducted in Auburn (Alabama, USA) between March 1998 and February 1999. Clinical disease was observed in 4% of the 1,214 finches trapped and examined. This rate is comparable to the average annual prevalence observed in this population since 1996, although the prevalence of clinical disease observed in the peak months of September through November was lower than in previous years. Clinically ill birds were observed in all months of the study. To estimate the prevalence of recovering and asymptomatic, infected birds, we tested a subset of 334 house finches serologically for exposure to Mycoplasma gallisepticum (MG) using the serum plate agglutination (SPA) assay. The prevalence of clinical disease in this subsample was slightly higher (7%) than in the entire sample, reflecting the fact that the serological survey was initiated in the late summer when the prevalence of MG infection peaks in our study population and a sampling bias for symptomatic birds. The serological survey indicated that 13% of this subpopulation had been exposed to MG. We also tested 46 of 334 finches by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) to detect MG in seropositive, asymptomatic birds. Use of the PCR in conjunction with the SPA detected six asymptomatic, infected birds that may represent potential carriers or birds in the early stages of infection. The decreasing prevalence of clinical disease observed during the peak months suggests a changing host-parasite relationship. Continued surveillance of this population, employing both clinical observation and serological analysis will be useful in characterizing these changes over time.     

The kiss of death: three tests of the relationship between disease threat and ritualized physical contact within traditional cultures

The direct adaptive impact of rituals and other forms of behavior dictated or shaped by culture may be one factor influencing their persistence or lack thereof over time. Given that physical contact is a common means through which transmissible disease is spread, we explored the possibility that levels of normative physical contact would be negatively associated with levels of infectious disease prevalence. We tested this prediction across three domains of such behavior – greetings, romantic kissing, and mortuary rituals – by compiling ethnographic information on normative behavior in traditional cultures and comparing it with epidemiological estimates of pathogen prevalence. We find small but significant negative correlations between pathogen prevalence and both greetings and romantic kissing. Ancillary analyses suggest that these relationships are driven by human-transmitted pathogens. The relationship between pathogen prevalence and mortuary rituals is non-significant. Causal mechanisms that may account for these results, as well as implications and limitations, are discussed.     

The intra- and interspecific relationships between abundance and distribution in helminth parasites of birds

1. Positive correlations between local abundance and distribution on a larger spatial scale are commonly observed among related species.
2. Within parasite species, the same relationship may be expected between prevalence and intensity of infection across host species used. Across parasite species, a positive relationship is expected between average abundance in a host population and the number of host species that can be exploited based on the resource breadth hypothesis. Trade-offs between the ability to exploit many host species and the potential for heavy infections, however, could result in a negative relationship.
3. Intraspecifically, using data on 51 helminth species parasitic in birds, prevalence and intensity of infection among host species used are generally only weakly correlated. Only in nematodes is there an overall positive relationship between prevalence and intensity.
4. A comparative analysis was performed on data from 389 species of cestodes, trematodes and nematodes parasitic in birds to determine how host specificity covaries interspecifically with abundance, measured both as prevalence and intensity of infection.
5. After controlling for phylogenetic influences and sampling effort, the number of host species used correlated positively with prevalence in all three parasite taxa, and with intensity of infection in trematodes only.
6. These results do not support the existence of a trade-off between abundance and the use of many host species, as has been found for fish parasites. Instead, whatever makes helminth parasites of birds abundant within a host population may facilitate their successful colonization of new host species.     

Transmission and immunity: the importance of heterogeneity in the fight against malaria

The complex relationship between transmission and parasite prevalence in humans is an important issue. Using a large dataset matching estimates of malaria transmission and Plasmodium falciparum prevalence in African children, a stimulating study published in Nature provides evidence that heterogeneity in susceptibility crucially determines the prevalence of infection. Moreover, it suggests that children who clear infections are not immune to new infections, irrespective of the amount of transmission. It is important to question the relevance of such results based on mathematical models when discussing host-parasite interactions, especially their implications for public health interventions.     

Caries prevalence in skeletal series--is it possible to compare?

Because of the relationship with subsistence, dental caries is a central issue in paleopathological research. Usually, comparisons between caries prevalence exhibited in different skeletal series are made. Dietary variation is the most common explanation for cavities prevalence. The aim of this paper is to verify if it is possible to compare caries prevalence reported on papers for archaeological skeletal series. Another goal is to determine if other factors besides diet are implicated in dental cavity prevalence explanation. Twenty six papers about dental health with caries prevalences published from 1999 to 2004 were analyzed for completeness. This assessment includes carious lesion diagnosis and characteristics, age, sex and size characteristics of samples, and prevalence calculation method. The majority of the analyzed papers do not provide adequate information in the topics listed above. Only very few implicated factors other than diet as a contributor to caries lesions development.