Animal board invited review: Specialising and intensifying cattle production for better efficiency and less global warming: contrasting results for milk and meat co-production at different scales

Cattle are the world’s largest consumers of plant biomass. Digestion of this biomass by ruminants generates high methane emissions that affect global warming. In the last decades, the specialisation of cattle breeds and livestock systems towards either milk or meat has increased the milk production of dairy cows and the carcass weight of slaughtered cattle. At the animal level and farm level, improved animal performance decreases feed use and greenhouse gas emissions per kg of milk or carcass weight, mainly through a dilution of maintenance requirements per unit of product. However, increasing milk production per dairy cow reduces meat production from the dairy sector, as there are fewer dairy cows. More beef cows are then required if one wants to maintain the same meat production level at country scale. Meat produced from the dairy herd has a better feed efficiency (less feed required per kg of carcass weight) and emits less methane than the meat produced by the cow-calf systems, because the intake of lactating cows is largely for milk production and marginally for meat, whereas the intake of beef cows is entirely for meat. Consequently, the benefits of breed specialisation assessed at the animal level and farm level may not hold when milk and meat productions are considered together. Any change in the milk-to-meat production ratio at the country level affects the numbers of beef cows required to produce meat. At the world scale, a broad diversity in feed efficiencies of cattle products is observed. Where both productions of milk per dairy cow and meat per head of cattle are low, the relationship between milk and meat efficiencies is positive. Improved management practices (feed, reproduction, health) increase the feed efficiency of both products. Where milk and meat productivities are high, a trade-off between feed efficiencies of milk and meat can be observed in relation to the share of meat produced in either the dairy sector or the beef sector. As a result, in developing countries, increasing productivities of both dairy and beef cattle herds will increase milk and meat efficiencies, reduce land use and decrease methane emissions. In other regions of the world, increasing meat production from young animals produced by dairy cows is probably a better option to reduce feed use for an unchanged milk-to-meat production ratio.     

Modelling the effect of directional spatial ecological processes at different scales

Understanding the effects of disturbance and secondary succession on spatio-temporal patterns in the abundance of species is stymied by a lack of long-term demographic data, especially in response to infrequent and high intensity disturbances, such as hurricanes. Moreover, resistance and resilience to hurricane-induced disturbance may be mediated by legacies of previous land use, although such interactive effects are poorly understood, especially in tropical environments. We address these central issues in disturbance ecology by analyzing an extensive dataset, spanning the impacts of Hurricanes Hugo and Georges, on the abundance of a Neotropical walking stick, Lamponius portoricensis, in tabonuco rainforest of Puerto Rico during the wet and dry seasons from 1991 to 2007. By synthesizing data from two proximate sites in tabonuco forest, we show that resistance to Hurricane Hugo (97% reduction in abundance) was much less than resistance to Hurricane Georges (21% reduction in abundance). Based on a powerful statistical approach (generalized linear mixed-effects models with Poisson error terms), we documented that the temporal trajectories of abundance during secondary succession (i.e., patterns of resilience) differed between hurricanes and among historical land use categories, but that the effects of hurricanes and land use histories were independent of each other. These complex results likely arise because of differences in the intensities of the two hurricanes with respect to microclimatic effects (temperature and moisture) in the forest understory, as well as to time-lags in the response of L. portoricensis to changes in the abundance and distribution of preferred food plants (Piper) in post-hurricane environments.     

Nutrient dynamics of reindeer forage species along snowmelt gradients at different ecological scales

Growing season nutrient dynamics of four reindeer forage species (Betula nana, Eriophorum angustifolium, Rumex acetosa and Vaccinium myrtillus) were studied in a mountainous sub-arctic landscape in N Sweden. Changes in nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and fibre (ADF) concentrations in leaves and shoots were analysed (from a reindeer foraging perspective) along four ecological gradients significant to regional and local snowmelt regimes: season, oceanicity, altitude, and snow-patch retreat. N and P concentrations showed marked seasonal variations with peaks occurring from the middle of June to the end of July depending on species and snowmelt progression. The seasonal pattern for ADF concentrations, as well as differences between snowmelt regimes, were less consistent and showed large differences between species. N concentrations increased along snowmelt gradients at small (within snow-patches) and medium (along altitude gradients) spatial scales. Furthermore, variations in N concentrations were temporally and spatially scale-dependent, which underlines the importance of scale for understanding plant nutrient dynamics in sub-arctic and alpine systems, as well for plant–animal interactions. The greatest temporal and spatial differences in nutrient quality were observed early in the season, i.e., at the time of highest nutrient requirements for reindeer. Climate-induced changes of the start and the progress of the growing season may result in significant consequences to the development of calves and subsequently to the population demography of reindeer, mediated through spatial and temporal changes in the distribution of high quality food. These results provide basic knowledge for reindeer management in the light of the ongoing global warming.     

Macroepibenthic communities at the tip of the Antarctic Peninsula,an ecological survey at different spatial scales

The Southern Ocean ecosystem at the Antarctic Peninsula has steep natural environmental gradients, e.g. in terms of water masses and ice cover, and experiences regional above global average climate change. An ecological macroepibenthic survey was conducted in three ecoregions in the north-western Weddell Sea, on the continental shelf of the Antarctic Peninsula in the Bransfield Strait and on the shelf of the South Shetland Islands in the Drake Passage, defined by their environmental envelop. The aim was to improve the so far poor knowledge of the structure of this component of the Southern Ocean ecosystem and its ecological driving forces. It can also provide a baseline to assess the impact of ongoing climate change to the benthic diversity, functioning and ecosystem services. Different intermediate-scaled topographic features such as canyon systems including the corresponding topographically defined habitats ‘bank’, ‘upper slope’, ‘slope’ and ‘canyon/deep’ were sampled. In addition, the physical and biological environmental factors such as sea-ice cover, chlorophyll-a concentration, small-scale bottom topography and water masses were analysed. Catches by Agassiz trawl showed high among-station variability in biomass of 96 higher systematic groups including ecological key taxa. Large-scale patterns separating the three ecoregions from each other could be correlated with the two environmental factors, sea-ice and depth. Attribution to habitats only poorly explained benthic composition, and small-scale bottom topography did not explain such patterns at all. The large-scale factors, sea-ice and depth, might have caused large-scale differences in pelagic benthic coupling, whilst small-scale variability, also affecting larger scales, seemed to be predominantly driven by unknown physical drivers or biological interactions.     

Multifaceted biodiversity modelling at macroecological scales using Gaussian processes

Aim

Modelling the response of β‐diversity (i.e., the turnover in species composition among sites) to environmental variation has wide‐ranging applications, including informing conservation planning, understanding community assembly and forecasting the impacts of climate change. However, modelling β‐diversity is challenging, especially for multiple diversity facets (i.e., taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic diversity), and current methods have important limitations. Here, we present a new approach for predicting the response of multifaceted β‐diversity to the environment, called Multifaceted Biodiversity Modelling (MBM). We illustrate the approach using both a plant diversity dataset from the French Alps and a set of simulated data. We also provide an implementation via an R package.

Location

French Alps.

Methods

For both the French Alps and the simulated communities, we compute β‐diversity indices (e.g., Sørensen dissimilarity, mean functional/phylogenetic pairwise distance) among site pairs. We then apply Gaussian process regression, a flexible nonlinear modelling technique, to predict β‐diversity in response to environmental distance among site pairs. For comparison, we also perform similar analyses using Generalized Dissimilarity Modelling (GDM), a well‐established method for modelling β‐diversity in response to environmental distance.

Results

In the Alps, we observed a general increase in taxonomic (TD) and functional (FD) β‐diversity (i.e., site pairs were more different from each other) as the climatic distance between site pairs increased. GDM performed better for TD and FD when fitting to calibration data, whereas MBM performed better for both when predicting to a validation dataset. For phylogenetic β‐diversity, MBM outperformed GDM in predicting the observed decrease in phylogenetic β‐diversity with increasing climatic distance.

Main conclusions

Multifaceted Biodiversity Modelling provides a flexible new approach that expands our capacity to model multiple facets of β‐diversity. Advantages of MBM over existing methods include simpler assumptions, more flexible modelling, potential to consider multiple facets of diversity across a range of diversity indices, and robust uncertainty estimation.

     

Untangling ecological complexity on different scales of space and time

Ecological systems are complex and essentially unpredictable, because of the multitude of interactions among their constituents. However, there are general statistical patterns emerging on particular spatial and temporal scales, which indicate the existence of some universal principles behind many ecological phenomena, and which can even be used for the prediction of phenomena occurring on finer scales of resolution. These generalities comprise regular frequency distributions of particular macroscopic variables within higher taxa (body size, abundance, range size), relationships between such variables, and general patterns in species richness. All the patterns are closely related to each other and although there are only a few major explanatory principles, there are plenty of alternative explanations. Reconciliation of different approaches cannot be obtained without careful formulation of testable hypotheses and rigorous quantitative empirical research. Two especially promising ways of untangling ecological complexity comprise: (1) analysis of invariances, i.e. universal quantitative relationships observed within many different systems, and (2) detailed analysis of the anatomy of macroecological phenomena, i.e. explorations of how emergent multispecies patterns are related to regular patterns concerning individual species.

Zusammenfassung

Ökologische Systeme sind komplex und im Wesentlichen aufgrund der Vielzahl von Interaktionen zwischen ihren Bestandteilen nicht vorhersagbar. Dennoch gibt es allgemeine statistische Muster, die in bestimmten räumlichen und zeitlichen Skalen auftreten. Dies weist auf die Existenz von einigen universellen Prinzipien hinter diesen ökologischen Phänomenen hin, die sogar für die Vorhersage von Phänomenen genutzt werden können, die auf kleineren Skalen auftreten. Diese Allgemeingültigkeiten bestehen aus Häufigkeitsverteilungen von bestimmten makroskopischen Variablen innerhalb höherer Taxa (Körpergröße, Abundanz, Arealgröße), den Beziehungen zwischen diesen Variablen und allgemeinen Mustern des Artenreichtums. Alle Muster stehen in enger Beziehung zueinander und obwohl es nur wenige bedeutende Erklärungsprinzipien gibt, existieren viele alternative Erklärungen. Die Abstimmung zwischen verschiedenen Ansätzen kann ohne eine sorgfältige Formulierung von testbaren Hypothesen und rigorose quantitative empirische Forschung nicht erreicht werden. Zwei besonders vielversprechende Wege ökologische Komplexität zu entwirren beinhalten (1) die Analyse von Invarianten, d.h. universellen quantitativen Beziehungen, die innerhalb verschiedener Systeme beobachtet werden, und (2) detaillierte Analysen der Anatomie von makroökologischen Phänomenen, d.h. Untersuchungen darüber, in welcher Beziehung die auftauchenden Muster von Multi-Arten-Systemen zu regulären Mustern individueller Arten stehen.     

Bayesian analysis of Douglas-fir hydraulic architecture at multiple scales

We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to analyze the variation in xylem anatomy, hydraulic properties, and the relationship between anatomy and properties within Douglas-fir trees. The hierarchical scales in our study included fertilization treatments (fertilized and unfertilized), trees within the treatments, and positions within the trees. We measured tracheid diameter, tracheid length, percent latewood, number of pits per cell, density, and specific conductivity (K _s) on seven positions in each of 16 fertilized and 16 unfertilized trees: the trunk at cambial age 52 (breast height), 25, and 5; a branch at cambial age 20 and 7; and a root at cambial age 42 and 22. Vulnerability to embolism was also measured on the oldest trunk, branch, and root positions. For any measurement, there was little variation between treatments, however, there was great variation among positions. Tracheid diameter, tracheid length, number of pits per cell, K _s, and vulnerability to embolism decreased vertically from the roots to the branches. Correlations were evident between some positions for tracheid diameter, percent earlywood, pits per cell, and vulnerability to embolism, mostly in the fertilized treatment. We found evidence for large-scale relationships (among all observations from all trees) between density and tracheid diameter, K _s and diameter, vulnerability and diameter, K _s and pits per cell, and vulnerability and pits per cell. At a smaller scale of within position, however, usually only the branches and roots maintained the relationship.     

Bark beetle diversity at different spatial scales

To determine how the scale of observation affects ecological patterns we studied bark beetle (Coleoptera, Scolytidae) diversity in southern Finland. A block covering 160 × 160 m of a forest was delimited in four stands of different site types. Each block was divided into 256 squares (10 × 10 m) in which the occurrence of bark beetle species was recorded. In addition, environmental variables describing site type, trees, and breeding material appropriate for bark beetles were measured. The species presence/absence data were combined at different scales of resolution (10 × 10 m. 20 × 20 m, 40 × 40 m, 80 × 80 m, 160 × 160 m). At the finest scale a recently thinned pine stand showed relatively high diversity compared to other study stands due to a few evenly distributed and abundant species. However, the species diversity increased faster toward larger scales in mature spruce stands with several sporadically distributed species. According to logistic regression analyses, breeding material and site characteristics explained the occurrence of most beetle species. However, these variables did not explain the occurrence of the six most frequent species, probably because the factors regulating their distribution and occurrence operate at larger scales.     

An algorithm of discovering signatures from DNA databases on a computer cluster

Background

Signatures are short sequences that are unique and not similar to any other sequence in a database that can be used as the basis to identify different species. Even though several signature discovery algorithms have been proposed in the past, these algorithms require the entirety of databases to be loaded in the memory, thus restricting the amount of data that they can process. It makes those algorithms unable to process databases with large amounts of data. Also, those algorithms use sequential models and have slower discovery speeds, meaning that the efficiency can be improved.

Results

In this research, we are debuting the utilization of a divide-and-conquer strategy in signature discovery and have proposed a parallel signature discovery algorithm on a computer cluster. The algorithm applies the divide-and-conquer strategy to solve the problem posed to the existing algorithms where they are unable to process large databases and uses a parallel computing mechanism to effectively improve the efficiency of signature discovery. Even when run with just the memory of regular personal computers, the algorithm can still process large databases such as the human whole-genome EST database which were previously unable to be processed by the existing algorithms.

Conclusions

The algorithm proposed in this research is not limited by the amount of usable memory and can rapidly find signatures in large databases, making it useful in applications such as Next Generation Sequencing and other large database analysis and processing. The implementation of the proposed algorithm is available athttp://www.cs.pu.edu.tw/~fang/DDCSDPrograms/DDCSD.htm.     

不同水位下拟建鄱阳湖水利枢纽对食块茎鸟类栖息地适宜性的影响研究

鄱阳湖为亚洲最大的候鸟栖息地,近十余年发生了枯水期提前且延长及湖区生态环境日益恶化的问题,对于此问题江西政府提出了一种科学的工程措施--鄱阳湖水利枢纽（简称枢纽）。然而,枢纽对越冬候鸟栖息地的影响尚无定量研究。以鄱阳湖食块茎鸟类--白鹤（Grus leucogeranus）、白枕鹤（Grus vipio）和小天鹅（Cygnus columbianus）的栖息地为研究对象,利用3S技术结合生态学知识,在ArcGIS平台上搭建了食块茎鸟类栖息地适宜性评价模型,使用二维水动力模型联合适宜性评价模型,生成鄱阳湖在兴建枢纽前、后的食块茎鸟类栖息地适宜性分布图。选取工程调度时期水位相对稳定时段,以鄱阳湖无枢纽状态下星子水位为基础,探究鄱阳湖在不同水位时,有拟建枢纽和无拟建枢纽状态下食块茎鸟类的栖息地适宜性的变化,定量分析拟建枢纽对候鸟栖息地适宜性造成的影响。研究发现：枢纽的调度规则具有一定的科学性,水位调度方案对湖泊食块茎鸟类越冬初期栖息产生的影响较小,但会牺牲一部分越冬后期适合食块茎鸟类栖息的区域。拟建枢纽选址处至都昌站的食块茎鸟类栖息地适宜性受枢纽的负面影响最为显著,各级自然保护区之中,北部省级候鸟自然保护区受其负面影响最大,此保护区将减少18.01-39.80 km²适合食块茎鸟类栖息的面积。但是枢纽的运行能增加湖泊土壤水含量,使食块茎鸟类更易于觅食,且能增加喜食块茎鸟类的食物丰富度。本研究可为为今后鄱阳湖湖区水环境规划和水生态管理维护提供一定的科学参考。     

Hydraulic residence time computation for constructed wetland design

Hydraulic residence time (HRT) is one of the key design parameters controlling the removal efficiency of contaminants and nutrients in stormwater and wastewater wetlands. The paper presents a new approach to the estimation of HRT using the variable residence time (VART) model. The VART model is employed to simulate the major processes (including advection, dispersion, and transient storage of contaminants/nutrients in vegetated zones) affecting HRT and thereby to produce a hydraulic residence time distribution (HRTD) for a design wetland. The HRTD in combination with a moment-based method is then utilized to find a mean design HRT for the design wetland. Methods for estimation of parameters governing the HRTD are proposed. The new approach to HRT computation is demonstrated through a case study for the Tres Rios Demonstration (TRD) Wetlands in Arizona, USA. Modeling results show that the design HRTs for the Hayfield wetland (H1) and the Cobble wetlands (C1 and C2) are 4.04, 4.66, and 2.65 days, respectively. The computed HRTs agree well with those reported by previous studies, confirming the efficacy of the new approach to hydraulic design of constructed wetlands.     

Linking local ecological knowledge and habitat modelling to predict absolute species abundance on large scales

Assessing the spatial structure of abundance of a species is a basic requirement to carry out adequate conservation strategies. However, existing attempts to predict species abundance, particularly in absolute units and on large scales, are scarce and have led to weak results. In this work we present a scheme to obtain, in an affordable way, a predictive model of absolute animal abundance on large scales based on the modelling of data obtained from local ecological knowledge (LEK) and its calibration. To exemplify this scheme, we build and validate a predictive absolute abundance model of the endangered terrestrial tortoise Testudo graeca in Southeast Iberian Peninsula. For that purpose, we collected distribution and relative abundance data of T. graeca using a low cost methodology, such as LEK, by means of interviewing shepherds. The information from LEK was employed to build a predictive habitat-based model of relative abundance. The relative abundance model was transformed into an absolute abundance model by means of calibration with a classical absolute abundance sampling method such as distance sampling. The obtained absolute abundance model predicted the observed absolute abundances values well in independent locations when compared with other works (R ² = 36%) and thus can offer a cost-effective predictive ability. Our results show that reliable habitat-based predictive maps of absolute species abundance on regional scales can be obtained starting from low cost sampling methods of relative abundance, such as LEK, and its calibration.     

Quality-of-life indicators at different scales: Theoretical background

The article is presenting the general analysis of the systems approach and model approaches for the development of QoL indicators and indices. In our study we propose the method of response function as a method of the construction of purposeful, credible integrated models from data and prior knowledge or information. The method of response function implies credible models in the sense that they are identifiable, and, hopefully, explains system output behaviour satisfactorily.Using response function method for the development of QoL models, we are able to obtain QoL indices as the direct output of the models.     

Probing cell-surface dynamics and mechanics at different scales

Recent advances in our understanding of the cell surfaces strongly rely on new physical methods and concepts. During last decades, microscopy techniques combined with statistical analysis and modelling have significantly improved the toolkit of life scientists. They provide quantitative ways to analyse diverse biological functions such as cell signalling and cell adhesion at different scales. Here, I review quantitative approaches to cell-surface dynamics and mechanics. I focus on two specific topics: how membrane molecules dynamically organize in membranes and how cell-surface mechanics can contribute to tissue morphogenesis. Robert Feulgen Prize 2009 Winner lecture presented at the 51th Symposium of the Society for Histochemistry in Stubai, Austria, 7–10 October 2009.     

Mapping suitability for Buruli ulcer at fine spatial scales across Africa: A modelling study

Buruli ulcer (BU) is a disabling and stigmatising neglected tropical disease (NTD). Its distribution and burden are unknown because of underdiagnosis and underreporting. It is caused by Mycobacterium ulcerans, an environmental pathogen whose environmental niche and transmission routes are not fully understood. The main control strategy is active surveillance to promote early treatment and thus limit morbidity, but these activities are mostly restricted to well-known endemic areas. A better understanding of environmental suitability for the bacterium and disease could inform targeted surveillance, and advance understanding of the ecology and burden of BU. We used previously compiled point-level datasets of BU and M. ulcerans occurrence, evidence for BU occurrence within national and sub-national areas, and a suite of relevant environmental covariates in a distribution modelling framework. We fitted relationships between BU and M. ulcerans occurrence and environmental predictors by applying regression and machine learning based algorithms, combined in an ensemble model to characterise the optimal ecological niche for the disease and bacterium across Africa at a resolution of 5km x 5km. Proximity to waterbodies was the strongest predictor of suitability for BU, followed potential evapotranspiration. The strongest predictors of suitability for M. ulcerans were deforestation and potential evapotranspiration. We identified patchy foci of suitability throughout West and Central Africa, including areas with no previous evidence of the disease. Predicted suitability for M. ulcerans was wider but overlapping with that of BU. The estimated population living in areas predicted suitable for the bacterium and disease was 46.1 million.These maps could be used to inform burden estimations and case searches which would generate a more complete understanding of the spatial distribution of BU in Africa, and may guide control programmes to identify cases beyond the well-known endemic areas.     

Genetic relationships of American alligator populations distributed across different ecological and geographic scales

Although much work has been conducted on coastal populations of the American alligator (Alligator mississippiensis), less is known about the population dynamics and genetic structure of populations of alligators confined to inland habitats. DNA microsatellite loci, derived from the American alligator, were used to investigate patterns of genetic variation within and between populations of alligators distributed at coastal and inland localities in Texas. These data were used to evaluate the genetic discreteness of different alligator stocks relative to their basic ecology at these sites. Observed mean heterozygosities across seven loci for both coastal and inland populations ranged from 0.50-0.61, with both inland and coastal populations revealing similar patterns of variation. Measures of F(st) revealed significant population differentiation among all populations; however, analyses of molecular variance (AMOVAs) failed to demonstrate any apparent geographic pattern relative to the population differentiation indicated by F(st) values. Each population contained unique alleles for at least one locus. Additionally, assignment tests based on the distribution of genotypes placed 76% of individuals to their source population. These genetic data suggest considerable subdivision among alligator populations, possibly influenced by demographic and life history differences as well as barriers to dispersal. These results have clear implications for management. Rather than managing alligators in Texas as a single panmictic population, translocation programs and harvest quotas should consider the ecological and genetic distinctiveness of local alligator populations.     

Bumblebees experience landscapes at different spatial scales: possible implications for coexistence

Coexistence in bumblebee communities has largely been investigated at local spatial scales. However, local resource partitioning does not fully explain the species diversity of bumblebee communities. Theoretical studies provide new evidence that partitioning of space can promote species coexistence, when species interact with their environment at different spatial scales. If bumblebee species possess specific foraging ranges, different spatial resource utilisation patterns might operate as an additional mechanism of coexistence in bumblebee communities. We investigated the effects of the landscape-wide availability of different resources (mass flowering crops and semi-natural habitats) on the local densities of four bumblebee species at 12 spatial scales (landscape sectors with 250–3,000 m radius) to indirectly identify the spatial scales at which the bumblebees perceive their environment. The densities of all bumblebee species were enhanced in landscapes with high proportions of mass flowering crops (mainly oilseed rape). We found the strongest effects for Bombus terrestris agg. and Bombus lapidarius at large spatial scales, implying foraging distances of 3,000 and 2,750 m, respectively. The densities of Bombus pascuorum were most strongly influenced at a medium spatial scale (1,000 m), and of Bombus pratorum (with marginal significance) at a small spatial scale (250 m). The estimated foraging ranges tended to be related to body and colony sizes, indicating that larger species travel over larger distances than smaller species, presumably enabling them to build up larger colonies through a better exploitation of food resources. We conclude that coexistence in bumblebee communities could potentially be mediated by species-specific differences in the spatial resource utilisation patterns, which should be considered in conservation schemes.     

Community structure in ichneumonid parasitoids at different spatial scales

The processes underlying parasitoid community structure are little known. Stochastic niche-apportionment models provide one route to underlying assemblage rules in this and other groups. Previous work has applied this approach to parasitoids found on single host species in single populations. However, parasitoid communities are known to extend across multiple hosts and scales. The patterns of relative abundances generated by five niche-apportionment models were compared to those observed in assemblages of two sub-families of the Ichneumonidae, the Diplazontinae and Pimplinae, at landscape and patch scales, Yorkshire, UK. Three of the five models produced patterns that were significantly different to the observed pattern for all taxonomic levels at both spatial scales. The Diplazontinae fit the random fraction (RF) model at the landscape scale in broadleaved woods. This suggests that hierarchical structuring and biotic interactions may play a role in the structuring of Diplazontinae assemblages at this scale. In contrast the Pimplinae fit the RF model only at the patch scale and only at one site. However, the Pimplini tribe (all chiefly parasitoids of Lepidoptera) fit the random assortment (RA) model at both the landscape and the patch scales, whilst the Ephialtini tribe (wide range of hosts) fit no model at either scale. The ecological interpretation of the RA model suggests that the Pimplini tribe is an unsaturated assemblage, where some of the total available resources are unused. Our results show, through the fit of mechanistic niche-apportionment models, that the processes that may structure ichneumonid parasitoid assemblages are not consistent across taxa and spatial scales.     

Using heterogeneous data to identify signatures of dengue outbreaks at fine spatio-temporal scales across Brazil

Dengue virus remains a significant public health challenge in Brazil, and seasonal preparation efforts are hindered by variable intra- and interseasonal dynamics. Here, we present a framework for characterizing weekly dengue activity at the Brazilian mesoregion level from 2010–2016 as time series properties that are relevant to forecasting efforts, focusing on outbreak shape, seasonal timing, and pairwise correlations in magnitude and onset. In addition, we use a combination of 18 satellite remote sensing imagery, weather, clinical, mobility, and census data streams and regression methods to identify a parsimonious set of covariates that explain each time series property. The models explained 54% of the variation in outbreak shape, 38% of seasonal onset, 34% of pairwise correlation in outbreak timing, and 11% of pairwise correlation in outbreak magnitude. Regions that have experienced longer periods of drought sensitivity, as captured by the “normalized burn ratio,” experienced less intense outbreaks, while regions with regular fluctuations in relative humidity had less regular seasonal outbreaks. Both the pairwise correlations in outbreak timing and outbreak trend between mesoresgions were best predicted by distance. Our analysis also revealed the presence of distinct geographic clusters where dengue properties tend to be spatially correlated. Forecasting models aimed at predicting the dynamics of dengue activity need to identify the most salient variables capable of contributing to accurate predictions. Our findings show that successful models may need to leverage distinct variables in different locations and be catered to a specific task, such as predicting outbreak magnitude or timing characteristics, to be useful. This advocates in favor of “adaptive models” rather than “one-size-fits-all” models. The results of this study can be applied to improving spatial hierarchical or target-focused forecasting models of dengue activity across Brazil.