Departure from naturalized to invasive stage: a disturbance-induced mechanism and associated interacting factors

Aims Within a habitat of multiple plant species, increased resource availabilities and altered species abundances following disturbances create opportunities for exotic species to successfully establish and subsequently naturalize into its non-native environment. Such post-disturbance changes in abiotic and biotic environments may also promote a naturalized exotic species (or invading species) to become invasive through rapid colonization of the habitat sites by reducing the extent and size of resident plant species. By combining species life history traits with that of the disturbance-induced changes in habitat characteristics, we aimed to determine those interacting factors and associated mechanism allowing an exotic invasion to start off.Methods We used a modified version of the classic competition–colonization (CC) model which was formulated first by Hastings (1980) and studied later by Tilman (1994) to explain spatial coexistence of multiple species. Within this model framework, recruitment-limited spatial competition has explicitly been linked with interspecific resource competition without altering the basic assumptions and structure of the original CC model.Important findings The model results showed that at a constant rate of resource supply, invading species can stably coexist with native species via trade-offs between species competitive ability and colonizing ability. On the other hand, the model predicted that with a fluctuating resource condition, invading species can successfully invade a habitat following continuous reductions in the size and extent of native species. Whether or not invading species holds competitive superiority over the native species for limiting resource, we showed that there exists a range of variation in available resource that allows an exotic invasion to start off in post-disturbance habitat. The associated disturbance-induced mechanism promoting invading species to become invasive has been identified. It states that occurrences of disturbances such as fire or clear-cutting influence variation in resource availability, and in addition open up many vacant microsites; given these disturbance-induced changes, invading species with a higher rate of propagule production and with a higher survival rate of adults particularly in low-resource condition recruits microsites at faster rate relative to native competitor species, and with a given range of variation in resource availabilities, it maintains continued expansions following reductions in size and extent of native species. Moreover, we identified those interacting factors and their specific roles that drive this mechanism. These factors include propagule supply, variable resource level and vacant microsite availability. Increased availability of vacant microsites following disturbances creates an opportunity for rapid colonization. Given this opportunity, higher number of propagules supplied by the invading species enhances the rate of colonization success, whereas the resource variation within a range of given thresholds maintains enhanced colonization rate of the invading species while it depresses native competitor species. Owing to the each factor's invasion regulatory ability, controlling one or all of them may have strong negative impact on the occurrence of exotic invasion.     

Landscape configuration drives persistent spatial patterns of occupant distributions

Variation in the density of organisms among habitat patches is often attributed to variation in inherent patch properties. For example, higher quality patches might have higher densities because they attract more colonists or confer better post-colonization survival. However, variation in occupant density can also be driven by landscape configuration if neighboring patches draw potential colonists away from the focal habitat (a phenomenon we call propagule redirection). Here, we develop and analyze a stochastic model to quantify the role of landscape configuration and propagule redirection on occupant density patterns. We model a system with a dispersive larval stage and a sedentary adult stage. The model includes sensing and decision-making in the colonization stage and density-dependent mortality (a proxy for patch quality) in the post-colonization stage. We demonstrate that spatial variation in colonization is retained when the supply of colonists is not too high, post-colonization density-dependent survival is not too strong, and colonization events are not too frequent. Using a reef fish system, we show that the spatial variation produced by propagule redirection is comparable to spatial variation expected when patch quality varies. Thus, variation in density arising from the spatial patterning of otherwise identical habitat can play an important role in shaping long-term spatial patterns of organisms occupying patchy habitats. Propagule redirection is a potentially powerful mechanism by which landscape configuration can drive variation in occupant densities, and may therefore offer new insights into how populations may shift as landscapes change in response to natural and anthropogenic forces.     

The role of preadaptation,propagule pressure and competition in the colonization of new habitats

To successfully colonize new habitats, organisms not only need to gain access to it, they also need to cope with the selective pressures imposed by the local biotic and abiotic conditions. The number of immigrants, the preadaptation to the local habitat and the presence of competitors are important factors determining the success of colonization. Here, using two experimental set-ups, we studied the effect of interspecific competition in combination with propagule pressure and preadaptation on the colonization success of new habitats. Our model system consisted of tomato plants (the novel habitat), the two-spotted spider mite Tetranychus urticae as our focal species and the red spider mite Tetranychus evansi as a competitor. Our results show that propagule pressure and preadaptation positively affect colonization success. More successful populations reach larger final population sizes either by having higher per capita growth rates (due to preadaptation effects) or by starting a population with a larger number of individuals. Although populations are more successful colonizing non-competitive environments than competitive ones, propagule pressure and preadaptation counteract the negative effects of competition, promoting colonization success. Our study shows the importance of propagule pressure and preadaptation for successful colonization of new habitats by providing the ability to cope with both the exigencies of new environments and the community context.     

Role of propagule pressure in colonization success: disentangling the relative importance of demographic,genetic and habitat effects

High propagule pressure is arguably the only consistent predictor of colonization success. More individuals enhance colonization success because they aid in overcoming demographic consequences of small population size (e.g. stochasticity and Allee effects). The number of founders can also have direct genetic effects: with fewer individuals, more inbreeding and thus inbreeding depression will occur, whereas more individuals typically harbour greater genetic variation. Thus, the demographic and genetic components of propagule pressure are interrelated, making it difficult to understand which mechanisms are most important in determining colonization success. We experimentally disentangled the demographic and genetic components of propagule pressure by manipulating the number of founders (fewer or more), and genetic background (inbred or outbred) of individuals released in a series of three complementary experiments. We used Bemisia whiteflies and released them onto either their natal host (benign) or a novel host (challenging). Our experiments revealed that having more founding individuals and those individuals being outbred both increased the number of adults produced, but that only genetic background consistently shaped net reproductive rate of experimental populations. Environment was also important and interacted with propagule size to determine the number of adults produced. Quality of the environment interacted also with genetic background to determine establishment success, with a more pronounced effect of inbreeding depression in harsh environments. This interaction did not hold for the net reproductive rate. These data show that the positive effect of propagule pressure on founding success can be driven as much by underlying genetic processes as by demographics. Genetic effects can be immediate and have sizable effects on fitness.     

Strength in size not numbers: propagule size more important than number in sexually reproducing populations

Propagule pressure has consistently been identified as a primary factor in invader success, and reducing it can be one of the most effective methods for preventing the establishment of non-native species. However, when policy is implemented to reduce propagule pressure it almost exclusively focuses on the size of individual introduction events (‘propagule size’), with little confirmation that controlling this single aspect of propagule pressure is the most effective strategy. The number of introduction events (‘propagule number’) can play as much, or more, of a role in invader success, yet only a small portion of propagule pressure research has studied the relative importance of size and number. We investigated the relative roles of propagule size and number in the establishment of a sexually reproducing species using a field mesocosm experiment that introduced Hemimysis anomala (a non-native mysid) across a range of propagule sizes and numbers. We found that single, large introductions had higher abundances and probabilities of survival than smaller, more frequent additions. This experiment illustrated that, for sexual reproducers, focusing on lowering propagule size can be the most effective method for reducing non-native establishment.     

How propagule size and environmental suitability jointly determine establishment success: a test using dung beetle introductions

Both the size of founding populations (propagule size) and environmental suitability are known to influence whether a species newly introduced to a location will establish a self-sustaining population. However, these two factors do not operate independently: it is the interaction between propagule size and environmental suitability that determines the probability an introduced population will establish. Here I use the example of dung beetle introductions to Australia to illustrate the importance of this interaction. I first describe equations that model establishment success jointly as a function of propagule size and environmental suitability. I then show how these equations provide insight into the different outcomes observed in two dung beetle species widely introduced to Australia. In one species, variation in propagule size had relatively little influence on establishment success due to large variation in environmental suitability, leading to an essentially bimodal outcome: sites were either very suitable for establishment and introductions succeeded, or sites were unsuitable and introductions failed regardless of propagule size. For the second species, there was much less variation among locations in environmental suitability, leading to propagule size having a strong influence on establishment success. These examples highlight how the interplay between environmental suitability and founding population size is central to determining the probability an introduced species will establish.     

Coexistence of Habitat Specialists and Generalists in Metapopulation Models of Multiple-Habitat Landscapes

In coarse-grained environments specialists are generally predicted to dominate. Empirically, however, coexistence with generalists is often observed. We present a simple, but previously unrecognized, mechanism for coexistence of a habitat generalist and a number of habitat specialist species. In our model all species have a metapopulation structure in a landscape consisting of patches of different habitat types, governed by local extinction and colonization. Each specialist is limited to its specific type of habitat. The generalist can use more types of habitat, has a lower local competitive ability but can exploit patches left open by the specialists. Our modeling shows that coexistence is easily possible. The mechanism amounts to a colonization/competition trade-off at the landscape level, where the colonization advantage of the inferior competitor does not arise from a higher colonization rate but from its ability to use more types of habitat. Habitat availability has to be intermediate: when there are few patches of each habitat, only the generalist is able to maintain itself and when there are many patches, high propagule pressure of the specialists excludes the generalist. Habitat selection or temporal variations in relative habitat quality are not necessary for coexistence. Increased niche-width, colonization rate or local competitive ability of the generalist enhances its performance compared to the specialists. Various types of habitat degradation favour generalism. When able to use a broad range of habitats, generalists can generate so much propagule pressure that only a low level of local competitive ability is needed to globally exclude the specialists. Hence, in a reversal of the original problem, the question is why there are so many specialist metapopulations?     

Woody plant colonization in an experimentally fragmented landscape

The pattern of distribution and abundance of woody plants colonizing old fields is influenced by landscape spatial features, in particular, by the distance from the old field to propagule sources and the size of the habitat patches undergoing succession. Colonization is also influenced by species life history traits, such as dispersal mode, growth form, and fecundity. As part of a long-term project studying effects of habitat fragmentation on secondary succession at the prairie-forest ecotone, we have examined the colonization patterns of early-successional woody plants in an experimentally fragmented old field, with emphasis on the three woody species [Cornus drummondii C. A. Mey (rough-leaved dogwood), Ulmus rubra Muhl. (slippery elm), and Juniperus virginiana L. (red cedar)], which currently dominate the woody community on the site. The shapes of the colonization curve (proportion of colonized quadrats vs time) differed between C. drummondii and U. rubra. The rate of colonization by C. drummondii showed a pattern of acceleration after its initial colonization, consistent with rapid in situ recruitment from clonal growth and early seed production. By contrast, colonization by U. rubra fits a roughly linear pattern, consistent with recruitment only from external propagule sources. For both C. drummondii and U. rubra, density is currently greater in large patches than in small patches. No patch size difference was found for J. virginiana. The stern density of both C. drummondii and U. rubra exponentially decreased with distance to external propagule sources. The negative exponential pattern of U. rubra (wind-dispersed) with distance is sharper than that of C drummondii (bird-dispersed). Moreover, the amount of spatial variation in density explained by distance to source is greater on small patches. Our results highlight the importance of life history traits of colonizing species and spatial aspects of habitat during succession.     

The more you introduce the more you get: the role of colonization pressure and propagule pressure in invasion ecology

Aim  We argue that 'propagule pressure', a key term in invasion biology, has been attributed at least three distinct definitions (with usage of a related term causing additional confusion). All of the definitions refer to fundamental concepts within the invasion process, with the result that the distinct importance of these different concepts has been at best diluted, and at worst lost.
Location  Global.
Methods  We reviewed pertinent literature on propagule pressure to resolve confusion about different uses of the term 'propagule pressure' and we introduced a new term for one variant, colonization pressure. We conducted a computer simulation whereby the introduction of species is represented as a simple sampling process to elucidate the relationship between propagule and colonization pressure.
Results  We defined colonization pressure as the number of species introduced or released to a single location, some of which will go on to establish a self-sustaining population and some of which will not. We subsequently argued that colonization pressure should serve as a null hypothesis for understanding temporal or spatial differences in exotic species richness, as the more species that are introduced, the more we should expect to establish. Finally, using a simple simulation, we showed that propagule pressure is related to colonization pressure, but in a non-linear manner.
Main conclusion  We suggest that the nature of the relationship between propagule pressure and colonization pressure, as well as the efficacy of various proxy measures of each, require more detailed exploration if invasion ecology is to continue to develop into a more predictive science.     

Colonization,abundance, and geographic range size of gravestone lichens

Macroecological studies often find that species with large geographic range sizes are also locally abundant. Superior colonization ability of species with large ranges is a possible/plausible explanation for this pattern, yet direct measures of colonization ability are difficult, and thus the relationship between colonization ability and range size is rarely investigated directly. Using a data set of gravestone lichens spanning more than 300 years, we investigated relationships among colonization ability, abundance, and geographic range size. Pairwise correlations were used to compare colonization ability and local abundance with area of occupancy (a measure of range size) and spore size within England, Scotland, and Wales on two different types of gravestones. Indices of colonization ability and abundance were positively correlated with area of occupancy. Colonization ability was significantly positively correlated with local abundance, but it was not at all related to propagule size. When lichen species were grouped categorically by colonization ability, the strongest area-occupancy relationships were observed within the subset of species that were the best colonizers. Significant differences among genera were found in spore size but not for other variables. Lichen species that occupy the largest geographic area were the best colonizers: they were the first species present on newly erected stones. These results complement the more commonly observed macroecological pattern that widespread species are also locally abundant.     

Differences in the composition of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal communities promoted by different propagule forms from a Mediterranean shrubland

As it is well known, arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) colonization can be initiated from the following three types of fungal propagules: spores, extraradical mycelium (ERM), and mycorrhizal root fragments harboring intraradical fungal structures. It has been shown that biomass allocation of AM fungi (AMF) among these three propagule types varies between fungal taxa, as also differs the ability of the different AMF propagule fractions to initiate new colonizations. In this study, the composition of the AMF community in the roots of rosemary (Rosmarinus officinalis L., a characteristic Mediterranean shrub), inoculated with the three different propagule types, was analyzed. Accordingly, cuttings from this species were inoculated with either AMF spores, ERM, or colonized roots extracted from a natural soil. The AMF diversity within the rosemary roots was characterized using terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism (T-RFLP) of the small subunit (SSU) rDNA region. The AMF community established in the rosemary plants was significantly different according to the type of propagule used as inoculum. AMF taxa differed in their ability to initiate new colonizations from each propagule type. Results suggest different colonization strategies for the different AMF families involved, Glomeraceae and Claroideoglomeraceae colonizing mainly from colonized roots whereas Pacisporaceae and Diversisporaceae from spores and ERM. This supports that AMF taxa show contrasting life-history strategies in terms of their ability to initiate new colonizations from the different propagule types. Further research to fully understand the colonization and dispersal abilities of AMF is essential for their rational use in ecosystem restoration programs.     

Allee Effects, Propagule Pressure and the Probability of Establishment: Risk Analysis for Biological Invasions

Colonization is of longstanding interest in theoretical ecology and biogeography, and in the management of weeds and other invasive species, including insect pests and emerging infectious diseases. Due to accelerating invasion rates and widespread economic costs and environmental damages caused by invasive species, colonization theory has lately become a matter of considerable interest. Here we review the concept of propagule pressure to inquire if colonization theory might provide quantitative tools for risk assessment of biological invasions. By formalizing the concept of propagule pressure in terms of stochastic differential equation models of population growth, we seek a synthesis of invasion biology and theoretical population biology. We focus on two components of propagule pressure that affect the chance of invasion: (1) the number of individuals initially introduced, and (2) the rate of subsequent immigration. We also examine how Allee effects, which are expected to be common in newly introduced populations, may inhibit establishment of introduced propagules. We find that the establishment curve (i.e., the chance of invasion as a function of initial population size), can take a variety of shapes depending on immigration rate, carrying capacity, and the severity of Allee effects. Additionally, Allee effects can cause the stationary distribution of population sizes to be bimodal, which we suggest is a possible explanation for time lags commonly observed between the detection of an introduced population and widespread invasion of the landscape.     

Extinction-colonization dynamics and host-plant choice in butterfly metapopulations

Species living in highly fragmented landscapes often occur as metapopulations with frequent population turnover. Turnover rate is known to depend on ecological factors, such as population size and connectivity, but it may also be influenced by the phenotypic and genotypic composition of populations. The Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) in Finland uses two host-plant species that vary in their relative abundances among distinct habitat patches (dry meadows) in a large network of approximately 1,700 patches. We found no effect of host species use on local extinction. In contrast, population establishment was strongly influenced by the match between the host species composition of an empty habitat patch and the relative host use by larvae in previous years in the habitat patches that were well connected to the target patch. This "colonization effect" could be due to spatially variable plant acceptability or resistance or to spatially variable insect oviposition preference or larval performance. We show that spatial variation in adult oviposition preference occurs at the relevant spatial scale and that the other possible causes of the colonization effect can be discounted. We conclude that the colonization effect is generated by host preference influencing the movement patterns of ovipositing females. Migrant females with dissimilar host preferences have different perceptions of relative patch quality, which influences their likelihood of colonizing patches with particular host composition.     

Founder population size and number of source populations enhance colonization success in waterstriders

Understanding the factors that underlie colonization success is crucial both for ecological theory and conservation practices. The most effective way to assess colonization ability is to introduce experimentally different sets of individuals in empty patches of suitable habitat and to monitor the outcome. We translocated mated female waterstriders, Aquarius najas, into 90 streams that were not currently inhabited by the species. We manipulated sizes of propagules (from 2 to 16 mated females) and numbers of origin populations (one or two). Three origin populations were genetically different from each other, but they were less than 150 km from the streams of translocation. The results demonstrate clearly that both the larger propagule size and the high number of source populations have positive effects on the probability of colonizing a new stream. Thus, in addition to the stochastic factors related to the propagule size it may be essential to consider also the diversity of genetic origin for colonization success.Due to an error in the citation line, this revised PDF (published in December 2003) deviates from the printed version, and is the correct and authoritative version of the paper.     

Parsing propagule pressure: Number,not size,of introductions drives colonization success in a novel environment

Predicting whether individuals will colonize a novel habitat is of fundamental ecological interest and is crucial to conservation efforts. A consistently supported predictor of colonization success is the number of individuals introduced, also called propagule pressure. Propagule pressure increases with the number of introductions and the number of individuals per introduction (the size of the introduction), but it is unresolved which process is a stronger driver of colonization success. Furthermore, their relative importance may depend upon the environment, with multiple introductions potentially enhancing colonization of fluctuating environments. To evaluate the relative importance of the number and size of introductions and its dependence upon environmental variability, we paired demographic simulations with a microcosm experiment. Using Tribolium flour beetles as a model system, we introduced a fixed number of individuals into replicated novel habitats of stable or fluctuating quality, varying the number of introductions through time and size of each introduction. We evaluated establishment probability and the size of extant populations through seven generations. We found that establishment probability generally increased with more, smaller introductions, but was not affected by biologically realistic fluctuations in environmental quality. Population size was not significantly affected by environmental variability in the simulations, but populations in the microcosms grew larger in a stable environment, especially with more introduction events. In general, the microcosm experiment yielded higher establishment probability and larger populations than the demographic simulations. We suggest that genetic mechanisms likely underlie these differences and thus deserve more attention in efforts to parse propagule pressure. Our results highlight the importance of preventing further introductions of undesirable species to invaded sites and suggest conservation efforts should focus on increasing the number of introductions or reintroductions of desirable species rather than increasing the size of those introduction events into harsh environments.     

The response of ectomycorrhizal fungal inoculum to long-term increases in nitrogen supply

The inoculum of ectomycorrhizal (EM) fungi was examined in a 16 y long nitrogen fertilization experiment maintained in a temperate oak savanna. To measure EM fungal inoculum, bur oak seedlings were grown in three types of bioassays: (i) intact soil cores that measure inoculum such as spores, mycelia and mycorrhizal roots; (ii) resistant propagule bioassays that measure inoculum types resistant to soil drying; and (iii) previously mycorrhizal root bioassays that measure the ability of EM fungi to colonize new roots from mycorrhizal roots. Colonization of bur oak seedlings was characterized by morphotyping and where necessary by restriction analysis and internal transcribed spacer (ITS) sequencing. Fourteen morphotypes were found in intact soil core bioassays with species of Cortinarius, Cenococcum and Russula abundant. Five morphotypes were found in resistant propagule bioassays with Cenococcum, a thelephoroid morphotype and a Wilcoxina-like ascomycete abundant and frequent. In intact soil core bioassays total percent root colonization and number of morphotypes were not affected by N supply in 2000 and 2001. However the composition of EM fungi colonizing oak seedling roots was different with increased N supply such that Russula spp. (primarily Russula aff. amoenolens) were most abundant at the highest level of N supply. Dominant Russula spp. did not colonize any roots in resistant propagule bioassays but did colonize oak seedling roots from previously mycorrhizal roots. Results suggest that in this savanna N supply can influence the kinds of inoculum propagules present and thereby might affect the dynamics of ectomycorrhizal communities by differentially influencing reproductive and colonization strategies.     

Niche based distribution modelling of an invasive alien plant: effects of population status, propagule pressure and invasion history

Forecasting the spatial spread of invasive species is important to inform management planning. Niche-based species distribution models offer a well-developed framework for assessing the potential range of species. However, these models assume equilibrium between the species’ distribution and its ecological requirements. During range expansion, invasive species are not in such equilibrium due to both dispersal limitation and frequent casual occurrence in sites unsuitable to persistent populations. In this article we use the example of the invasive annual plant Ambrosia artemisiifolia in Austria to evaluate if model accuracy can be enhanced in such non-equilibrium situations by taking account of propagule pressure and by restricting model calibration to naturalized populations. Moreover, we test if model accuracy increases during invasion history using distribution data from 1984 to 2005. The results suggest that models calibrated with naturalized populations are much more accurate than those based on the total set of records. Proxies of propagule pressure slightly but significantly improve goodness of fit, accuracy, and Type I and II error rates of models calibrated with all available records but have less consistent effects on models of naturalized populations. Model accuracy did not increase during the recent invasion history, probably because the species is still far from an equilibrium distribution. We conclude that even a coarse assessment of population status with records of invasive species delivers important information for predictive modelling and that proxies of propagule pressure should be included into such models at least during early to intermediate stages of the invasion history.     

Biological control as an invasion process: disturbance and propagule pressure affect the invasion success of Lythrum salicaria biological control agents

Understanding the mechanisms behind the successful colonization and establishment of introduced species is important for both preventing the invasion of unwanted species and improving release programs for biological control agents. However, it is often not possible to determine important introduction details, such as date, number of organisms, and introduction location when examining factors affecting invasion success. Here we use biological control introduction data to assess the role of propagule pressure, disturbance, and residence time on invasion success of four herbivorous insect species introduced for the control of the invasive wetland plant, Lythrum salicaria, in the Columbia River Estuary. Two sets of field surveys determined persistence at prior release sites, colonization of new sites, and abundance within colonized sites. We quantified propagule pressure in four ways to examine the effect of different measurements. These included three measurements of introduction size (proximity to introduction site, introduction size at a local scale, and introduction size at a regional scale) and one measure of introduction number (number of introduction events in a region). Disturbance was examined along a tidal inundation gradient (distance from river mouth) and as habitat (island or mainland). Statistical models and model averaging were used to determine which factors were driving invasion success. In this study we found: (1) sparse evidence for the positive influence of propagule pressure on invasion success; (2) disturbance can negatively affect the invasion success of herbivorous insects; (3) the effects of disturbance and propagule pressure are species specific and vary among invasion stages, and (4) not all measures of propagule pressure show the same results, therefore single measures and proxies should be used cautiously.     

Gene surfing in expanding populations

Large scale genomic surveys are partly motivated by the idea that the neutral genetic variation of a population may be used to reconstruct its migration history. However, our ability to trace back the colonization pathways of a species from their genetic footprints is limited by our understanding of the genetic consequences of a range expansion. Here, we study, by means of simulations and analytical methods, the neutral dynamics of gene frequencies in an asexual population undergoing a continual range expansion in one dimension. During such a colonization period, lineages can fix at the wave front by means of a "surfing" mechanism [Edmonds, C.A., Lillie, A.S., Cavalli-Sforza, L.L., 2004. Mutations arising in the wave front of an expanding population. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 101, 975-979]. We quantify this phenomenon in terms of (i) the spatial distribution of lineages that reach fixation and, closely related, (ii) the continual loss of genetic diversity (heterozygosity) at the wave front, characterizing the approach to fixation. Our stochastic simulations show that an effective population size can be assigned to the wave that controls the (observable) gradient in heterozygosity left behind the colonization process. This effective population size is markedly higher in the presence of cooperation between individuals ("pushed waves") than when individuals proliferate independently ("pulled waves"), and increases only sub-linearly with deme size. To explain these and other findings, we develop a versatile analytical approach, based on the physics of reaction-diffusion systems, that yields simple predictions for any deterministic population dynamics. Our analytical theory compares well with the simulation results for pushed waves, but is less accurate in the case of pulled waves when stochastic fluctuations in the tip of the wave are important.     

Global Patterns of Pre-Dispersal Propagule Predation in Mangrove Forests1

Mangroves in disparate families produce viviparous seedlings (propagules) that are attacked by many crab and insect predators both before and after dispersal. While post-dispersal predation is viewed as an important factor in structuring many mangrove communities, pre-dispersal predation rates and agents have been characterized for few species. Ten species of mangrove and 3299 propagules were surveyed for pre-dispersal propagule predation at 42 sites around the world. Pre-dispersal predation rates were variable among sites and species, ranging from 0 to 93 percent within sands, with a global total predation rate of 23.3 percent (across all propagules examined) and a mean level of 28.3 percent across sites. Grapsid crabs, Coleoptera and Lepidoptera were the primary predators identified. Forests near human population centers and stands occurring at high intertidal sites exhibited higher levels of propagule predation than those in unpopulated or low-intertidal sites. Predation rates on a species were weakly, negatively correlated with conspecific seedling density at a site. To explore temporal variation in, and ramifications of pre-dispersal predation for propagule growth and abscission dynamics, Rhizophora mangle propagules were monitored over two years at three sites in Belize, Central America. Predation did not significantly reduce hypocotylar growth of germinated propagules on the parent tree, but nearly doubled the abscission rate of premature propagules. Pre-dispersal propagule predation is a ubiquitous feature of mangrove forests world-wide, and must be accounted for in estimates of reproductive output, stand health, and propagule availability for forestry and restoration efforts.