The Use of Satellite Tags to Redefine Movement Patterns of Spiny Dogfish (Squalus acanthias) along the U.S. East Coast: Implications for Fisheries Management

Spiny dogfish (Squalus acanthias) are assumed to be a highly migratory species, making habitual north-south migrations throughout their northwestern Atlantic United States (U.S.) range. Also assumed to be a benthic species, spiny dogfish stock structure is estimated through Northeast Fisheries Science Center (NEFSC) bottom-trawl surveys. Recent anomalies in population trends, including a recent four-fold increase in estimated spawning stock biomass, suggest alternative movement patterns could exist for this shark species. To obtain a better understanding of the horizontal and vertical movement dynamics of this species, Microwave Telemetry pop-up satellite archival X-Tags were attached to forty adult spiny dogfish at the northern (Gulf of Maine) and southern (North Carolina) extents of their core U.S. geographic range. Reconstructed geolocation tracks ranging in lengths from two to 12 months suggest that the seasonal migration patterns appear to be local in nature to each respective northern and southern deployment site, differing from previously published migration paradigms. Differences in distance and direction traveled between seasonal geolocations possibly indicate separate migratory patterns between groups. Kernel utilization distribution models also suggest strong separate core home ranges. Significant differences in seasonal temperature and depths between the two regions further substantiate the possibility of separate regional movement patterns between the two groups. Vertical utilization also suggests distinct diel patterns and that this species may not utilize the benthos as previously thought, potentially decreasing availability to benthic gear.     

A Large-Scale Mitigation Experiment to Reduce Bat Fatalities at Wind Energy Facilities

ABSTRACT Until large numbers of bat fatalities began to be reported at certain North American wind energy facilities, wildlife concerns regarding wind energy focused primarily on bird fatalities. Due in part to mitigation to reduce bird fatalities, bat fatalities now outnumber those of birds. To test one mitigation option aimed at reducing bat fatalities at wind energy facilities, we altered the operational parameters of 21 turbines at a site with high bat fatalities in southwestern Alberta, Canada, during the peak fatality period. By altering when turbine rotors begin turning in low winds, either by changing the wind-speed trigger at which the turbine rotors are allowed to begin turning or by altering blade angles to reduce rotor speed, blades were near motionless in low wind speeds, which resulted in a significant reduction in bat fatalities (by 60.0% or 57.5%, respectively). Although these are promising mitigation techniques, further experiments are needed to assess costs and benefits at other locations.     

Coloured noise or low-dimensional chaos?

Devising a method capable of distinguishing a low-dimensional chaotic signal that might be embedded in a noisy stochastic process has become a major challenge for those involved in time-series analysis. Here a null hypothesis approach is used in conjunction with a known nonlinear predictive test, to probe for the presence of chaos in epidemiological data. A probabilistic set of rules is used to stimulate a historic record of New York City measles outbreaks, generally understood to be governed by a chaotic attractor. The simulated runs of 'surrogate data' are carefully constructed so as to be free from any underlying low-dimensional chaotic process. They therefore serve as a useful null model against which to test the observed time series. However, despite the assumed differences between the dynamics of measles outbreaks and the null model, a nonlinear predictive scheme is found to be unable to differentiate between their characteristic time series. The methodology confirms that, if there is in fact a chaotic signal in the measles data, it is extremely difficult to detect in time series of such limited length. The results have general relevance to the analysis of physical, ecological and environmental time series.     

Spreading speed, traveling waves, and minimal domain size in impulsive reaction-diffusion models

How growth, mortality, and dispersal in a species affect the species' spread and persistence constitutes a central problem in spatial ecology. We propose impulsive reaction-diffusion equation models for species with distinct reproductive and dispersal stages. These models can describe a seasonal birth pulse plus nonlinear mortality and dispersal throughout the year. Alternatively, they can describe seasonal harvesting, plus nonlinear birth and mortality as well as dispersal throughout the year. The population dynamics in the seasonal pulse is described by a discrete map that gives the density of the population at the end of a pulse as a possibly nonmonotone function of the density of the population at the beginning of the pulse. The dynamics in the dispersal stage is governed by a nonlinear reaction-diffusion equation in a bounded or unbounded domain. We develop a spatially explicit theoretical framework that links species vital rates (mortality or fecundity) and dispersal characteristics with species' spreading speeds, traveling wave speeds, as well as minimal domain size for species persistence. We provide an explicit formula for the spreading speed in terms of model parameters, and show that the spreading speed can be characterized as the slowest speed of a class of traveling wave solutions. We also give an explicit formula for the minimal domain size using model parameters. Our results show how the diffusion coefficient, and the combination of discrete- and continuous-time growth and mortality determine the spread and persistence dynamics of the population in a wide variety of ecological scenarios. Numerical simulations are presented to demonstrate the theoretical results.     

Can wind help explain seasonal differences in avian migration speed?

A bird's ground speed is influenced by the wind conditions it encounters. Wind conditions, although variable, are not entirely random. Instead, wind exhibits persistent spatial and temporal dynamics described by the general circulation of the atmosphere. As such, in certain geographical areas wind's assistance (or hindrance) on migratory flight is also persistent, being dependent upon the bird's migratory direction in relation to prevailing wind conditions. We propose that, considering the western migration route of nocturnal migrants through Europe, winds should be more supportive in spring than in autumn. Thus, we expect higher ground speeds, contributing to higher overall migration speeds, in spring. To test whether winds were more supportive in spring than autumn, we quantified monthly wind conditions within western Europe relative to the seasonal direction of migration using 30 years (1978–2008) of wind data from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis dataset. We found that supporting winds were significantly more frequent for spring migration compared to autumn and up to twice as frequent at higher altitudes. We then analyzed three years (2006–2008) of nocturnal migratory ground speeds measured with radar in the Netherlands which confirmed higher ground speeds in spring than autumn. This seasonal difference in ground speed suggests a 16.9% increase in migration speed from autumn to spring. These results stress the importance of considering the specific wind conditions experienced by birds when interpreting migration speed. We provide a simple methodological approach enabling researchers to quantify regional wind conditions for any geographic area and time period of interest.     

The influence of weather on western corn rootworm flight activity at the borders of a soybean field in east central Illinois

The evolution of a new strain of western corn rootworm (WCR) beetle (Diabrotica virgifera virgifera) that has adapted to crop rotation by flying from host cornfields to nearby soybean fields to lay eggs is presenting new challenges to farmers in the U.S.A. Corn Belt. Development of effective management tools for the WCR that display this new behavior require knowledge of atmospheric factors that influence their interfield movement. In this study, WCR movement into a soybean field is related to solar radiation, wind speed and direction, air temperature, and precipitation with consideration of biological factors that also influence flight. WCR flight activity and meteorological variables were measured above the canopy of a 1.64 ha soybean field in east-central Illinois between late July and early September, 1997. On 14 days, insect traps were sampled at 30-min intervals. Interfield movement of WCR occurred over a wide range of solar irradiances, air temperatures, and wind speeds. Darkness, air temperatures below 15 °C or above 31 °C, and wind speeds in excess of 2.0 m s^{- 1} prohibited aerial movement of WCR. Within these limits, atmospheric factors had only little influence on the biologically-driven temporal patterns of seasonal and daily WCR flight activity. Atmospheric conditions were conducive to WCR flight 62% of the time during the growing season when WCR were active. Weather conditions substantially reduced interfield WCR movement throughout about one-third of the days when female WCR beetles were abundant at the study site in 1997.     

A wind tunnel comparison of the rotorod and samplair pollen samplers

Summary The relative sampling efficiency of the Samplair (Allergenco Inc.) and Rotorod samplers (Sampling Technologies Inc.) were compared for different conifer pollen sizes and at different wind speeds. The wind tunnel experiments conducted with the two samplers are valid for the range of wind speeds and conifer pollen types which might be expected in seed orchards in Canada. A Quadratic relationship was established between the two samplers which revealed a decrease in relative efficiency on the part of the Samplair as compared to the Rotorod at wind speeds less than 5 m/s. An apparent increase in the efficiency of the samplair at higher wind speeds resulted from a decrease in the sampling ability of the rotorod.     

Nonlinear time series analysis of food intake in the dab and the rainbow trout

Evidence suggests that dab and rainbow trout are able to quickly adjust their food intake to an appropriate level when offered novel diets. In addition day-to-day and meal-to-meal food intake varies greatly and meal timing is plastic. Why this is the case is not clear: Food intake in fish is influenced by many factors, however the hierarchy and mechanisms by which these interact is not yet fully understood. A model of food intake may be helpful to understand these phenomena; to determine model type it is necessary to understand the qualitative nature of food intake. Food intake can be regarded as an autoregressive (AR) time series, as the amount of food eaten at time t will be influenced by previous meals, and this allows food intake to be considered using time series analyses. Here, time series data were analysed using nonlinear techniques to obtain qualitative information from which evidence for the hierarchy of mechanisms controlling food intake may be drawn. Time series were obtained for a group of dab and individuals and a group of rainbow trout for analysis. Surrogate data sets were generated to test several null hypotheses describing linear processes and all proved significantly different to the real data, suggesting nonlinear dynamics. Examination of topography and recurrence diagrams suggested that all series were deterministic and non-stationary. The point correlation dimension (PD2i) suggested low-dimensional dynamics. Our findings suggest therefore that any model of appetite should create output that is deterministic, non-stationary, low-dimensional and having nonlinear dynamics.     

Environmental forcing as a main determinant of bloom dynamics of the Chrysochromulina algae

In this paper, we demonstrate that the seasonal dynamics in the abiotic factors, without including seasonal changes in the biological relationships, can appropriately account for the seasonal dynamics of Chrysochromulina spp. This is through the analysis of data on the population dynamics of Chrysochromulina spp. off southern Norway that is evaluated in relation to environmental factors and season by the analyses of 12 year monthly time-series. Chrysochromulina spp. abundance, nutrient concentrations, hydrographical properties, as well as current and wind data were analysed on a monthly scale by means of autoregressive moving average models, principal component analyses (PCA), and linear and nonlinear regression models. Seasonal development of the Chrysochromulina assemblage was well predicted from regression models forced with two PCA components representing seasonal variation in nutrient and chlorophyll a levels and ratios, inflow of North Seawater to the Skagerrak and northeasterly wind along the Norwegian coast. Assuming these to be general results, we might hypothesis that marine algal communities are governed by seasonally varying abiotic factors to a large extent.     

Morphologically accurate reduced order modeling of spiking neurons

Accurately simulating neurons with realistic morphological structure and synaptic inputs requires the solution of large systems of nonlinear ordinary differential equations. We apply model reduction techniques to recover the complete nonlinear voltage dynamics of a neuron using a system of much lower dimension. Using a proper orthogonal decomposition, we build a reduced-order system from salient snapshots of the full system output, thus reducing the number of state variables. A discrete empirical interpolation method is then used to reduce the complexity of the nonlinear term to be proportional to the number of reduced variables. Together these two techniques allow for up to two orders of magnitude dimension reduction without sacrificing the spatially-distributed input structure, with an associated order of magnitude speed-up in simulation time. We demonstrate that both nonlinear spiking behavior and subthreshold response of realistic cells are accurately captured by these low-dimensional models.     

Ecological implications of a latitudinal gradient in inter-annual climatic variability: a test using fractal and chaos theories

Although measures of seasonality are common, ecologists have seldom measured inter-annual variation or tested for the presence of a latitudinal gradient. Yet, species diversity and range size may be influenced by latitudinal gradients in climatic variability. Fractal and chaos theories offer new techniques to measure climatic unpredictability by analyzing the dynamics of nonlinear time-series data. We analyzed data on the number of freezing degree-days and date of first permanent ice from 12 weather stations (43–83°N) in Canada to describe latitudinal gradients in the timing of seasonal events. Time-series (ca 30 yr) of climatic variables were found to be nonlinear dynamic systems that were neither stochastic nor cyclic. The analyses reveal a latitudinal gradient in system memory length, with high latitude locations displaying shorter memory length (R/S fractal analysis and Lyapunov exponent). This latitudinal gradient is also characterized by more random and irregular fractal patterns (Hurst exponent) associated with higher latitudes. Both of these patterns may be due to the simpler climatic systems in high latitudes as indicated by fewer dynamic variables (lower correlation dimension). Application of fractal and chaos theories show that the timing of seasonal events (i.e. inter-annual variation) comprises a chaotic-dynamic system of comparatively low dimension.     

Winds at departure shape seasonal patterns of nocturnal bird migration over the North Sea

On their migratory journeys, terrestrial birds can come across large inhospitable areas with limited opportunities to rest and refuel. Flight over these areas poses a risk especially when wind conditions en route are adverse, in which case inhospitable areas can act as an ecological barrier for terrestrial migrants. Thus, within the east-Atlantic flyway, the North Sea can function as an ecological barrier. The main aim of this study was to shed light on seasonal patterns of bird migration in the southern North Sea and determine whether departure decisions on nights of intense migration were related to increased wind assistance. We measured migration characteristics with a radar that was located 18 km off the NW Dutch coast and used simulation models to infer potential departure locations of birds on nights with intense nocturnal bird migration. We calculated headings, track directions, airspeeds, groundspeeds on weak and intense migration nights in both seasons and compared speeds between seasons. Moreover, we tested if departure decisions on intense migration nights were associated with supportive winds. Our results reveal that on the intense migration nights in spring, the mean heading was towards E, and birds departed predominantly from the UK. On intense migration nights in autumn, the majority of birds departed from Denmark, Germany and north of the Netherlands with the mean heading towards SW. Prevailing winds from WSW at departure were supportive of a direct crossing of the North Sea in spring. However, in autumn winds were generally not supportive, which is why many birds exploited positive wind assistance which occurred on intense migration nights. This implies that the seasonal wind regimes over the North Sea alter its migratory dynamics which is reflected in headings, timing and intensity of migration.     

DNA homology comparison between American and European Borrelia burgdorferi strains

Seven strains of Borrelia burgdorferi isolated from ticks and from human beings in Europe and U.S.A. were analyzed for DNA restriction patterns with several enzymes and for DNA homology in Southern blot hybridizations. The restriction patterns showed a moderately high variability. In Southern blot hybridization, strain B31 (U.S.A.) DNA gave a strong signal with itself, strain Bsf (U.S.A.) and Alcaide (isolated in Italy but presumably contracted in Venezuela). Strain B45 (F.R.G.) hybridized to itself, strain BITS (Italy) and to strain D.A. (Italy). Strain Nancy (Italy) gave a signal only when hybridized to itself, although it was classified as Borrelia on the basis of the clinical manifestations, SDS-PAGE protein pattern and antigenic determinants. No hybridization differences were observed for strains isolated from different hosts in the same continental geographical area.     

Analysis of cedar pollen time series: no evidence of low-dimensional chaotic behavior

Much of the current interest in pollen time series analysis is motivated by the possibility that pollen series arise from low-dimensional chaotic systems. If this is the case, short-range prediction using nonlinear modeling is justified and would produce high-quality forecasts that could be useful in providing pollen alerts to allergy sufferers. To date, contradictory reports about the characterization of the dynamics of pollen series can be found in the literature. Pollen series have been alternatively described as featuring and not featuring deterministic chaotic behavior. We showed that the choice of test for detection of deterministic chaos in pollen series is difficult because pollen series exhibit power spectra. This is a characteristic that is also produced by colored noise series, which mimic deterministic chaos in most tests. We proposed to apply the Ikeguchi–Aihara test to properly detect the presence of deterministic chaos in pollen series. We examined the dynamics of cedar (Cryptomeria japonica) hourly pollen series by means of the Ikeguchi–Aihara test and concluded that these pollen series cannot be described as low-dimensional deterministic chaos. Therefore, the application of low-dimensional chaotic deterministic models to the prediction of short-range pollen concentration will not result in high-accuracy pollen forecasts even though these models may provide useful forecasts for certain applications. We believe that our conclusion can be generalized to pollen series from other wind-pollinated plant species, as wind speed, the forcing parameter of the pollen emission and transport, is best described as a nondeterministic series that originates in the high dimensionality of the atmosphere.     

Distributions Selected for Use in Probabilistic Human Health Risk Assessments in Oregon

In 1995, Oregon enacted amendments to its state Cleanup Law that emphasize risk-based remedial action decisions and allow a responsible party to conduct probabilistic human health risk assessments. This change required selection and/or development of probability density functions for exposure factors frequently used in human health risk assessments. Methods used to obtain distributions for body weight, soil, water, vegetable/fruit, fish, and animal product ingestion, soil adherence, daily inhalation rate, various event and exposure frequencies, and exposure duration are described. Primary data sources were U.S. Environmental Protection Agency guidance and peer-reviewed scientific literature. These distributions of exposure factors may be used, in conjunction with a probabilistic age- and gender-based model, to calculate prospective exposures and risks. A brief overview of this model, which handles temporal parameters (age, exposure frequency, exposure duration) in a manner substantially different from that typically used in deterministic assessments, is also provided. Oregon's development of an age/ gender-based exposure model, and its selection of exposure factor value distributions for that model, represents one of the first attempts to develop practical approaches to using probabilistic techniques in a hazardous waste regulatory program.     

Factors Controlling Phytoplankton Blooms in a Temperate Estuary: Nutrient Limitation and Physical Forcing

A combination of enclosure nutrient enrichment experiments and historical data analysis was used to identify the factors controlling seasonal dynamics and competition of the phytoplankton community in the Curonian lagoon (Southeast Baltic Sea). Experiments using different nutrient (N, P and Si) manipulations were performed in 10-l enclosures for 48 h. Changes in chlorophyll a concentrations, inorganic nutrient concentrations, and plankton cell density were monitored. Results revealed that phytoplankton development in the lagoon is strongly affected by ambient physical factors (wind, temperature). Nutrient limitation, however, also plays an important role in seasonal succession mechanisms showing quite distinct seasonal development patterns. Based on the data, available phytoplankton seasonal succession in the Curonian lagoon could be described as composed by three phases corresponding to different domination and regulatory mechanisms.     

Population dynamics and diapause response of the springtail pest Sminthurus viridis (Collembola: Sminthuridae) in southeastern Australia

The springtail, Sminthurus viridis (L.) (Collembola: Sminthuridae), is an important agricultural pest across southern Australia. We investigated the seasonal abundance patterns and summer diapause response of S. viridis in southeastern Australia by using field and shadehouse (a greenhouse that offers seedlings shade) experiments. Seasonal activity patterns of S. viridis were largely consistent with previous studies, with the pest active from autumn to spring. In addition, the timing and pattern of the summer-diapausing egg stage was established, with multiple generations probably producing diapause eggs. A strong relationship between soil moisture and temperature with autumn emergence also was observed. These results suggest that S. viridis autumn pest pressure can be predicted and indicate that late-season spraying strategies currently used for a sympatric agricultural pest are unlikely to be as effective against S. viridis.     

珠江三角洲地面风场的特征及其城市群风道的构建

利用珠三角20个观测站1964—1983年的风数据分析了珠三角城市群地面风场风向、风速分布与季节变化特征,并基于经验正交函数(EOF)进行了地面风场的空间分类。呈缺口盆地地形的珠三角风速较低,为3—2 m/s,整个区域风速南高北低;以伶仃洋为界,西岸高于东岸;西南部潭江谷地夏季多南风,冬季为北风,东岸东江谷底全年多东风,北江与西江河谷冬季盛行北风,夏季为东南风。综合风向与风速,结合地形,可将珠三角地面风场由南向北依次划分为较高风速区、中风速区和低风速区三类。根据空间尺度以及在区域中发挥的作用,珠三角城市群应构建多级风道,且风道还有常年与季节之别:伶仃洋(伶仃洋—虎门—狮子洋—广州水道)、西江(磨刀门—九江—三水)、潭江河谷应属于一级常年风道;北江(清远—三水)和东江(博罗—狮子洋)为一级季节风道。广州—三水段、黄埔—东莞段、中山—江门段以及伶仃洋段是影响整个珠三角大气环境质量风道的枢纽地段。城市群规划中对枢纽段超高建筑群进行风环境影响的评价,对枢纽段河道宽度、建筑物高度与密度的控制,将有助于提高珠三角城市群的空气质量,并防范下垫面粗糙度改变引起峡谷风的新风险。     

A model for insect locomotion in the horizontal plane: Feedforward activation of fast muscles, stability, and robustness

We develop a neuromechanical model for running insects that includes a simplified hexapedal leg geometry with agonist-antagonist muscle pairs actuating each leg joint. Restricting to dynamics in the horizontal plane and neglecting leg masses, we reduce the model to three degrees of freedom describing translational and yawing motions of the body. Muscles are driven by stylized action potentials characteristic of fast motoneurons, and modeled using an activation function and nonlinear length and shortening velocity dependence. Parameter values are based on measurements from depressor muscles and observations of kinematics and dynamics of the cockroach Blaberus discoidalis; in particular, motoneuronal inputs and muscle force levels are chosen to approximately achieve joint torques that are consistent with measured ground reaction forces. We show that the model has stable double-tripod gaits over the animal's speed range, that its dynamics at preferred speeds matches those observed, and that it maintains stable gaits, with low frequency yaw deviations, when subject to random perturbations in foot touchdown and lift-off timing and action potential input timing. We explain this in terms of the low-dimensional dynamics.