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1.
Katharine J. Looker Amalia S. Magaret Margaret T. May Katherine M. E. Turner Peter Vickerman Sami L. Gottlieb Lori M. Newman 《PloS one》2015,10(10)
Background
Herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1) commonly causes orolabial ulcers, while HSV-2 commonly causes genital ulcers. However, HSV-1 is an increasing cause of genital infection. Previously, the World Health Organization estimated the global burden of HSV-2 for 2003 and for 2012. The global burden of HSV-1 has not been estimated.Methods
We fitted a constant-incidence model to pooled HSV-1 prevalence data from literature searches for 6 World Health Organization regions and used 2012 population data to derive global numbers of 0-49-year-olds with prevalent and incident HSV-1 infection. To estimate genital HSV-1, we applied values for the proportion of incident infections that are genital.Findings
We estimated that 3709 million people (range: 3440–3878 million) aged 0–49 years had prevalent HSV-1 infection in 2012 (67%), with highest prevalence in Africa, South-East Asia and Western Pacific. Assuming 50% of incident infections among 15-49-year-olds are genital, an estimated 140 million (range: 67–212 million) people had prevalent genital HSV-1 infection, most of which occurred in the Americas, Europe and Western Pacific.Conclusions
The global burden of HSV-1 infection is huge. Genital HSV-1 burden can be substantial but varies widely by region. Future control efforts, including development of HSV vaccines, should consider the epidemiology of HSV-1 in addition to HSV-2, and especially the relative contribution of HSV-1 to genital infection. 相似文献2.
Lori Newman Jane Rowley Stephen Vander Hoorn Nalinka Saman Wijesooriya Magnus Unemo Nicola Low Gretchen Stevens Sami Gottlieb James Kiarie Marleen Temmerman 《PloS one》2015,10(12)
Background
Quantifying sexually transmitted infection (STI) prevalence and incidence is important for planning interventions and advocating for resources. The World Health Organization (WHO) periodically estimates global and regional prevalence and incidence of four curable STIs: chlamydia, gonorrhoea, trichomoniasis and syphilis.Methods and Findings
WHO’s 2012 estimates were based upon literature reviews of prevalence data from 2005 through 2012 among general populations for genitourinary infection with chlamydia, gonorrhoea, and trichomoniasis, and nationally reported data on syphilis seroprevalence among antenatal care attendees. Data were standardized for laboratory test type, geography, age, and high risk subpopulations, and combined using a Bayesian meta-analytic approach. Regional incidence estimates were generated from prevalence estimates by adjusting for average duration of infection. In 2012, among women aged 15–49 years, the estimated global prevalence of chlamydia was 4.2% (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 3.7–4.7%), gonorrhoea 0.8% (0.6–1.0%), trichomoniasis 5.0% (4.0–6.4%), and syphilis 0.5% (0.4–0.6%); among men, estimated chlamydia prevalence was 2.7% (2.0–3.6%), gonorrhoea 0.6% (0.4–0.9%), trichomoniasis 0.6% (0.4–0.8%), and syphilis 0.48% (0.3–0.7%). These figures correspond to an estimated 131 million new cases of chlamydia (100–166 million), 78 million of gonorrhoea (53–110 million), 143 million of trichomoniasis (98–202 million), and 6 million of syphilis (4–8 million). Prevalence and incidence estimates varied by region and sex.Conclusions
Estimates of the global prevalence and incidence of chlamydia, gonorrhoea, trichomoniasis, and syphilis in adult women and men remain high, with nearly one million new infections with curable STI each day. The estimates highlight the urgent need for the public health community to ensure that well-recognized effective interventions for STI prevention, screening, diagnosis, and treatment are made more widely available. Improved estimation methods are needed to allow use of more varied data and generation of estimates at the national level. 相似文献3.
Background and Objectives
It would be of considerable interest to clinicians if the burden of chronic pulmonary aspergillosis (CPA) and allergic bronchopulmonary aspergillosis (ABPA) in India were known. Herein, we estimate the burden of CPA following pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB), and ABPA (and severe asthma with fungal sensitization [SAFS]) complicating asthma.Methods
We used the population estimates for India from the 2011 census data. The burden of asthma was estimated using three different methods (Global Initiative against Asthma [GINA] report statement, World Health Survey [WHS] estimates, Indian study on the epidemiology of asthma and chronic bronchitis [INSEARCH]). Global and India-specific figures were used for calculating the prevalence of ABPA and SAFS. The World Health Organization estimates were used for calculating PTB rates while the frequency of CPA was assessed from a previously published scoping review. Sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the burden in various scenarios.Results
The total Indian population in 2011 was 1.2 billion. The asthma prevalence in adults was estimated at about 27.6 (range, 17–30) million. The burden of ABPA ranged from 0.12–6.09 million with different assumptions (best estimate, 1.38 [range, 0.86–1.52] million). The prevalence of SAFS was approximated at about 0.52–1.21 million (best estimate, 0.96 [range, 0.6–1.06] million). The incident TB cases were about 2.1 million while the annual incidence of CPA varied 27,000-0.17 million cases, with different estimates. If the mortality of CPA is estimated as 15% annually, the 5-year prevalence of CPA was placed at 290,147 cases with 5-year prevalence rate being 24 per 100,000.Conclusion
There is a significant burden of ABPA, SAFS and CPA in India. Prospective community-based studies are required to accurately determine the prevalence of these disorders. 相似文献4.
Alize J. Ferrari Rosana E. Norman Greg Freedman Amanda J. Baxter Jane E. Pirkis Meredith G. Harris Andrew Page Emily Carnahan Louisa Degenhardt Theo Vos Harvey A. Whiteford 《PloS one》2014,9(4)
Background
The Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010) identified mental and substance use disorders as the 5th leading contributor of burden in 2010, measured by disability adjusted life years (DALYs). This estimate was incomplete as it excluded burden resulting from the increased risk of suicide captured elsewhere in GBD 2010''s mutually exclusive list of diseases and injuries. Here, we estimate suicide DALYs attributable to mental and substance use disorders.Methods
Relative-risk estimates of suicide due to mental and substance use disorders and the global prevalence of each disorder were used to estimate population attributable fractions. These were adjusted for global differences in the proportion of suicide due to mental and substance use disorders compared to other causes then multiplied by suicide DALYs reported in GBD 2010 to estimate attributable DALYs (with 95% uncertainty).Results
Mental and substance use disorders were responsible for 22.5 million (14.8–29.8 million) of the 36.2 million (26.5–44.3 million) DALYs allocated to suicide in 2010. Depression was responsible for the largest proportion of suicide DALYs (46.1% (28.0%–60.8%)) and anorexia nervosa the lowest (0.2% (0.02%–0.5%)). DALYs occurred throughout the lifespan, with the largest proportion found in Eastern Europe and Asia, and males aged 20–30 years. The inclusion of attributable suicide DALYs would have increased the overall burden of mental and substance use disorders (assigned to them in GBD 2010 as a direct cause) from 7.4% (6.2%–8.6%) to 8.3% (7.1%–9.6%) of global DALYs, and would have changed the global ranking from 5th to 3rd leading cause of burden.Conclusions
Capturing the suicide burden attributable to mental and substance use disorders allows for more accurate estimates of burden. More consideration needs to be given to interventions targeted to populations with, or at risk for, mental and substance use disorders as an effective strategy for suicide prevention. 相似文献5.
Background
A Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis was launched in 2000, with mass drug administration (MDA) as the core strategy of the programme. After completing 13 years of operations through 2012 and with MDA in place in 55 of 73 endemic countries, the impact of the MDA programme on microfilaraemia, hydrocele and lymphedema is in need of being assessed.Methodology/Principal findings
During 2000–2012, the MDA programme made remarkable achievements – a total of 6.37 billion treatments were offered and an estimated 4.45 billion treatments were consumed by the population living in endemic areas. Using a model based on empirical observations of the effects of treatment on clinical manifestations, it is estimated that 96.71 million LF cases, including 79.20 million microfilaria carriers, 18.73 million hydrocele cases and a minimum of 5.49 million lymphedema cases have been prevented or cured during this period. Consequently, the global prevalence of LF is calculated to have fallen by 59%, from 3.55% to 1.47%. The fall was highest for microfilaraemia prevalence (68%), followed by 49% in hydrocele prevalence and 25% in lymphedema prevalence. It is estimated that, currently, i.e. after 13 years of the MDA programme, there are still an estimated 67.88 million LF cases that include 36.45 million microfilaria carriers, 19.43 million hydrocele cases and 16.68 million lymphedema cases.Conclusions/Significance
The MDA programme has resulted in significant reduction of the LF burden. Extension of MDA to all at-risk countries and to all regions within those countries where MDA has not yet reached 100% geographic coverage is imperative to further reduce the number of microfilaraemia and chronic disease cases and to reach the global target of interrupting transmission of LF by 2020. 相似文献6.
Eshan U. Patel Melanie A. Frank Yu-Hsiang Hsieh Richard E. Rothman Amy E. O. Baker Chadd K. Kraus Judy Shahan Charlotte A. Gaydos Gabor D. Kelen Thomas C. Quinn Oliver Laeyendecker 《PloS one》2014,9(7)
Objectives
Herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) is a common sexually transmitted disease, but there is limited data on its epidemiology among urban populations. The urban Emergency Department (ED) is a potential venue for surveillance as it predominantly serves an inner city minority population. We evaluate the seroprevalence and factors associated with HSV-2 infection among patients attending the Johns Hopkins Hospital Adult Emergency Department (JHH ED).Methods
An identity unlinked-serosurvey was conducted between 6/2007 and 9/2007 in the JHH ED; sera were tested by the Focus HerpeSelect ELISA. Prevalence risk ratios (PRR) were used to determine factors associated with HSV-2 infection.Results
Of 3,408 serum samples, 1,853 (54.4%) were seropositive for HSV-2. Females (adjPRR = 1.47, 95% CI 1.38–1.56), non-Hispanic blacks (adjPRR = 2.03, 95% CI 1.82–2.27), single (adjPRR = 1.15, 95% CI 1.07–1.25), divorced (adjPRR = 1.28, 95% CI 1.15–1.41), and unemployed patients (adjPRR = 1.13, 95% CI 1.05–1.21) had significantly higher rates of HSV-2 infection. Though certain zip codes had significantly higher seroprevalence of HSV-2, this effect was completely attenuated when controlling for age and gender.Conclusions
Seroprevalence of HSV-2 in the JHH ED was higher than U.S. national estimates; however, factors associated with HSV-2 infection were similar. The high seroprevalence of HSV-2 in this urban ED highlights the need for targeted testing and treatment. Cross-sectional serosurveys in the urban ED may help to examine the epidemiology of HSV-2. 相似文献7.
Don C. Des Jarlais Kamyar Arasteh Courtney McKnight David C. Perlman Jonathan Feelemyer Holly Hagan Hannah L. F. Cooper 《PloS one》2014,9(1)
Objective
To examine herpes simplex virus 2 (HSV-2)/HIV co-infection as a contributing factor in the increase in HIV infection among non-injecting heroin and cocaine users in New York City.Methods
Subjects were recruited from the Beth Israel Medical Center drug detoxification and methadone maintenance programs in New York City in 1995–1999 and 2005–2011. All reported current heroin and/or cocaine use and no injection drug use. A structured questionnaire was administered and serum samples collected for HIV and HSV-2 testing. Population-attributable risk percentages (PAR%s) were estimated for associations between HSV-2 and increased susceptibility to and increased transmissibility of HIV among female NIDUs.Results
785 subjects were recruited from 1995–1999, and 1764 subjects from 2005–2011. HIV prevalence increased from 7% to 13%, with nearly uniform increases among all demographic subgroups. HSV-2/HIV co-infection was common in both time periods, with an average (over the two time periods) of 80% of HIV negative females infected with HSV-2, an average of 43% of HIV negative males infected with HSV-2; an average of 97% of HIV positive females also infected with HSV-2 and an average of 67% of HIV positive males also infected with HSV-2. The increase in HIV prevalence was predominantly an increase in HSV-2/HIV co-infection, with relatively little HIV mono-infection in either time period. The estimated PAR%s indicate that approximately half of HIV acquisition among females was caused by HSV-2 infection and approximately 60% of HIV transmission from females was due to HSV-2 co-infection.Conclusions
The increase in HIV infection among these non-injecting drug users is better considered as an increase in HSV-2/HIV co-infection rather than simply an increase in HIV prevalence. Additional interventions (such as treatment as prevention and suppressing the effects of HSV-2 on HIV transmission) are needed to reduce further HIV transmission from HSV-2/HIV co-infected non-injecting drug users. 相似文献8.
Elisa Bruno Alessandro Bartoloni Lorenzo Zammarchi Marianne Strohmeyer Filippo Bartalesi Javier A. Bustos Saul Santiva?ez Héctor H. García Alessandra Nicoletti the COHEMI Project Study Group 《PLoS neglected tropical diseases》2013,7(10)
Background
The difference in epilepsy burden existing among populations in tropical regions has been attributed to many factors, including the distribution of infectious diseases with neurologic sequels. To define the burden of epilepsy in Latin American Countries (LAC) and to investigate the strength of association with neurocysticercosis (NCC), considered one of the leading causes of epilepsy, we performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of the literature.Methodology
Studies published until 2012 were selected applying predefined inclusion criteria. Lifetime epilepsy (LTE) prevalence, active epilepsy (AE) prevalence, incidence, mortality, treatment gap (TG) and NCC proportion among people with epilepsy (PWE) were extracted. Median values were obtained for each estimate using random effects meta-analysis. The impact of NCC prevalence on epilepsy estimates was determined using meta-regression models. To assess the association between NCC and epilepsy, a further meta-analysis was performed on case-control studies.Principal findings
The median LTE prevalence was 15.8/1,000 (95% CI 13.5–18.3), the median AE prevalence was 10.7/1,000 (95% CI 8.4–13.2), the median incidence was 138.2/100,000 (95% CI 83.6–206.4), the overall standardized mortality ratio was 1.4 (95% CI 0.01–6.1) and the overall estimated TG was 60.6% (95% CI 45.3–74.9). The median NCC proportion among PWE was 32.3% (95% CI 26.0–39.0). Higher TG and NCC estimates were associated with higher epilepsy prevalence. The association between NCC and epilepsy was significant (p<0.001) with a common odds ratio of 2.8 (95% CI 1.9–4.0).Significance
A high burden of epilepsy and of NCC in LAC and a consistent association between these two diseases were pointed out. Furthermore, NCC prevalence and TG were identified as important factors influencing epilepsy prevalence to be considered in prevention and intervention strategies. 相似文献9.
10.
Shaochun Chen Yueping Yin Xiangsheng Chen Hongchun Wang Yanhua Yu Wanhui Wei Yan Han Ning Jiang Baoxi Wang 《PloS one》2013,8(7)
Objectives
To determine seropositivity of herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) infection and associated risk factors among female sex workers (FSWs) in Guangxi, China.Methods
A convenience sample of FSWs was recruited from different types of sex work venues in two cities (Wuzhou and Hezhou) in Guangxi. Blood specimens were collected for ELISA-based detection of HSV-2 antibodies to examine the seropositivity of HSV-2 infection. Socio-demographic and behavioral data were collected through a structured questionnaire interview. Association of HSV-2 seropositivity with socio-demographic and behavioral characteristics and HIV status was analyzed.Results
The overall prevalence of HSV-2 seropositivity among 2453 FSWs was 54.9% (95% confidence interval [CI], 52.9–56.9%). The HSV-2 seropositivity was independently associated with older age, low education level, non-Han minority, migration status, working in lower-tier venues and positive HIV status.Conclusions
The study indicates a high prevalence of HSV-2 infection among FSWs, particularly in those working in low-tier venues in study areas, suggesting the needs to further emphasize the inclusion of HSV-2 in surveillance and intervention programs in this population. 相似文献11.
Makandwe Nyirenda Basia Zaba Till B?rnighausen Victoria Hosegood Marie-Louise Newell 《PloS one》2010,5(8)
Background
The main source of HIV prevalence estimates are household and population-based surveys; however, high refusal rates may hinder the interpretation of such estimates. The study objective was to evaluate whether population HIV prevalence estimates can be adjusted for survey non-response using mortality rates.Methodology/Principal Findings
Data come from the longitudinal Africa Centre Demographic Information System (ACDIS), in rural South Africa. Mortality rates for persons tested and not tested in the 2005 HIV surveillance were available from routine household surveillance. Assuming HIV status among individuals contacted but who refused to test (non-response) is missing at random and mortality among non-testers can be related to mortality of those tested a mathematical model was developed. Non-parametric bootstrapping was used to estimate the 95% confidence intervals around the estimates. Mortality rates were higher among untested (16.9 per thousand person-years) than tested population (11.6 per thousand person-years), suggesting higher HIV prevalence in the former. Adjusted HIV prevalence for females (15–49 years) was 31.6% (95% CI 26.1–37.1) compared to observed 25.2% (95% CI 24.0–26.4). For males (15–49 years) adjusted HIV prevalence was 19.8% (95% CI 14.8–24.8), compared to observed 13.2% (95% CI 12.1–14.3). For both sexes (15–49 years) combined, adjusted prevalence was 27.5% (95% CI 23.6–31.3), and observed prevalence was 19.7% (95% CI 19.6–21.3). Overall, observed prevalence underestimates the adjusted prevalence by around 7 percentage points (37% relative difference).Conclusions/Significance
We developed a simple approach to adjust HIV prevalence estimates for survey non-response. The approach has three features that make it easy to implement and effective in adjusting for selection bias than other approaches. Further research is needed to assess this approach in populations with widely available HIV treatment (ART). 相似文献12.
Don C. Des Jarlais Kamyar Arasteh Courtney McKnight David C. Perlman Hannah L. F. Cooper Holly Hagan 《PloS one》2013,8(6)
Objectives
To examine the potential contribution of herpes simplex virus 2 (HSV-2) infection to female/male and racial/ethnic disparities in HIV among non-injecting heroin and cocaine drug users. HSV-2 infection increases susceptibility to HIV infection by a factor of two to three.Methods
Subjects were recruited from entrants to the Beth Israel drug detoxification program in New York City 2005-11. All subjects reported current use of heroin and/or cocaine and no lifetime injection drug use. A structured questionnaire was administered and serum samples collected for HIV and HSV-2 testing. Population-attributable risk percentages (PAR%s) were calculated for associations between HSV-2 infection and increased susceptibility to HIV.Results
1745 subjects were recruited from 2005-11. Overall HIV prevalence was 14%. Females had higher prevalence than males (22% vs. 12%) (p<0.001), African-Americans had the highest prevalence (15%), Hispanics an intermediate prevalence (12%), and Whites the lowest prevalence (3%) (p<.001). There were parallel variations in HSV-2 prevalence (females 86%, males 51%, African-Americans 66%, Hispanics 47%, Whites 36%), HSV-2 prevalence was strongly associated with HIV prevalence (OR = 3.12 95% CI 2.24 to 4.32). PAR%s for HSV-2 as a cause of HIV ranged from 21% for Whites to 50% for females. Adjusting for the effect of increased susceptibility to HIV due to HSV-2 infection greatly reduced all disparities (adjusted prevalence = males 8%, females 11%; Whites 3%, African-Americans 10%, Hispanics 9%).Conclusions
Female/male and racial/ethnic variations in HSV-2 infection provide a biological mechanism that may generate female/male and racial/ethnic disparities in HIV infection among non-injecting heroin and cocaine users in New York City. HSV-2 infection should be assessed as a potential contributing factor to disparities in sexually transmitted HIV throughout the US. 相似文献13.
David Guwatudde Fred Wabwire-Mangen Leigh Anne Eller Michael Eller Francine McCutchan Hannah Kibuuka Monica Millard Nelson Sewankambo David Serwadda Nelson Michael Merlin Robb the Kayunga Cohort Research Team 《PloS one》2009,4(1)
Background
Few studies have been conducted in Uganda to identify and quantify the determinants of HIV-1 infection. We report results from a community-based cohort study, whose primary objectives were to determine HIV-1 prevalence, incidence, and determinants of these infections, among other objectives.Methodology
Consenting volunteers from the rural district of Kayunga in Uganda aged 15–49 years were enrolled between March and July 2006. Participants were evaluated every six months. A questionnaire that collected information on behavioral and other HIV-1 risk factors was administered, and a blood sample obtained for laboratory analysis at each study visit.Principal Findings
HIV-1 prevalence among the 2025 participants was 9.9% (95% CI = 8.6%–11.2%). By the end of 12 months of follow-up, 1689.7 person-years had been accumulated, with a median follow-up time of 11.97 months. Thirteen HIV-1 incident cases were detected giving an annual HIV-1 incidence of 0.77% (95% CI = 0.35–1.19). Prevalence of HSV-2 infection was 57% and was strongly associated with prevalent HIV-1 infection (adjusted Odds Ratio = 3.9, 95% CI = 2.50–6.17); as well as incident HIV-1 infection (adjusted Rate Ratio (RR) = 8.7, 95% CI = 1.11–67.2). The single most important behavioral characteristic associated with incident HIV infection was the number of times in the past 6 months, a participant had sex with person(s) they suspected/knew were having sex with others; attaining statistical significance at 10 times and higher (adjusted RR = 6.3, 95% CI = 1.73–23.1). By the end of 12 months of follow-up, 259 participants (13%) were lost to follow-up, 13 (0.6%) had died, and 2 (0.1%) had withdrawn consent.Conclusions
Despite relatively low HIV-1 incidence observed in this community, prevalence remains relatively high. In the presence of high prevalence of HSV-2 infection and the behavioral characteristic of having sex with more than one partner, there is potential for increase in HIV-1 incidence. 相似文献14.
Alize J. Ferrari Fiona J. Charlson Rosana E. Norman Abraham D. Flaxman Scott B. Patten Theo Vos Harvey A. Whiteford 《PloS one》2013,8(7)
Background
Although the detrimental impact of major depressive disorder (MDD) at the individual level has been described, its global epidemiology remains unclear given limitations in the data. Here we present the modelled epidemiological profile of MDD dealing with heterogeneity in the data, enforcing internal consistency between epidemiological parameters and making estimates for world regions with no empirical data. These estimates were used to quantify the burden of MDD for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010).Method
Analyses drew on data from our existing literature review of the epidemiology of MDD. DisMod-MR, the latest version of the generic disease modelling system redesigned as a Bayesian meta-regression tool, derived prevalence by age, year and sex for 21 regions. Prior epidemiological knowledge, study- and country-level covariates adjusted sub-optimal raw data.Results
There were over 298 million cases of MDD globally at any point in time in 2010, with the highest proportion of cases occurring between 25 and 34 years. Global point prevalence was very similar across time (4.4% (95% uncertainty: 4.2–4.7%) in 1990, 4.4% (4.1–4.7%) in 2005 and 2010), but higher in females (5.5% (5.0–6.0%) compared to males (3.2% (3.0–3.6%) in 2010. Regions in conflict had higher prevalence than those with no conflict. The annual incidence of an episode of MDD followed a similar age and regional pattern to prevalence but was about one and a half times higher, consistent with an average duration of 37.7 weeks.Conclusion
We were able to integrate available data, including those from high quality surveys and sub-optimal studies, into a model adjusting for known methodological sources of heterogeneity. We were also able to estimate the epidemiology of MDD in regions with no available data. This informed GBD 2010 and the public health field, with a clearer understanding of the global distribution of MDD. 相似文献15.
Gianluca Baio Alessandro Capone Andrea Marcellusi Francesco Saverio Mennini Giampiero Favato 《PloS one》2012,7(11)
Introduction
Human papilloma virus (HPV) genotypes 6, 11, 16, and 18 impose a substantial burden of direct costs on the Italian National Health Service that has never been quantified fully. The main objective of the present study was to address this gap: (1) by estimating the total direct medical costs associated with nine major HPV-related diseases, namely invasive cervical cancer, cervical dysplasia, cancer of the vulva, vagina, anus, penis, and head and neck, anogenital warts, and recurrent respiratory papillomatosis, and (2) by providing an aggregate measure of the total economic burden attributable to HPV 6, 11, 16, and 18 infection.Methods
For each of the nine conditions, we used available Italian secondary data to estimate the lifetime cost per case, the number of incident cases of each disease, the total economic burden, and the relative prevalence of HPV types 6, 11, 16, and 18, in order to estimate the aggregate fraction of the total economic burden attributable to HPV infection.Results
The total direct costs (expressed in 2011 Euro) associated with the annual incident cases of the nine HPV-related conditions included in the analysis were estimated to be €528.6 million, with a plausible range of €480.1–686.2 million. The fraction attributable to HPV 6, 11, 16, and 18 was €291.0 (range €274.5–315.7 million), accounting for approximately 55% of the total annual burden of HPV-related disease in Italy.Conclusions
The results provided a plausible estimate of the significant economic burden imposed by the most prevalent HPV-related diseases on the Italian welfare system. The fraction of the total direct lifetime costs attributable to HPV 6, 11, 16, and 18 infections, and the economic burden of noncervical HPV-related diseases carried by men, were found to be cost drivers relevant to the making of informed decisions about future investments in programmes of HPV prevention. 相似文献16.
Simon I. Hay Emelda A. Okiro Peter W. Gething Anand P. Patil Andrew J. Tatem Carlos A. Guerra Robert W. Snow 《PLoS medicine》2010,7(6)
Background
The epidemiology of malaria makes surveillance-based methods of estimating its disease burden problematic. Cartographic approaches have provided alternative malaria burden estimates, but there remains widespread misunderstanding about their derivation and fidelity. The aims of this study are to present a new cartographic technique and its application for deriving global clinical burden estimates of Plasmodium falciparum malaria for 2007, and to compare these estimates and their likely precision with those derived under existing surveillance-based approaches.Methods and Findings
In seven of the 87 countries endemic for P. falciparum malaria, the health reporting infrastructure was deemed sufficiently rigorous for case reports to be used verbatim. In the remaining countries, the mapped extent of unstable and stable P. falciparum malaria transmission was first determined. Estimates of the plausible incidence range of clinical cases were then calculated within the spatial limits of unstable transmission. A modelled relationship between clinical incidence and prevalence was used, together with new maps of P. falciparum malaria endemicity, to estimate incidence in areas of stable transmission, and geostatistical joint simulation was used to quantify uncertainty in these estimates at national, regional, and global scales.Combining these estimates for all areas of transmission risk resulted in 451 million (95% credible interval 349–552 million) clinical cases of P. falciparum malaria in 2007. Almost all of this burden of morbidity occurred in areas of stable transmission. More than half of all estimated P. falciparum clinical cases and associated uncertainty occurred in India, Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), and Myanmar (Burma), where 1.405 billion people are at risk.Recent surveillance-based methods of burden estimation were then reviewed and discrepancies in national estimates explored. When these cartographically derived national estimates were ranked according to their relative uncertainty and replaced by surveillance-based estimates in the least certain half, 98% of the global clinical burden continued to be estimated by cartographic techniques.Conclusions and Significance
Cartographic approaches to burden estimation provide a globally consistent measure of malaria morbidity of known fidelity, and they represent the only plausible method in those malaria-endemic countries with nonfunctional national surveillance. Unacceptable uncertainty in the clinical burden of malaria in only four countries confounds our ability to evaluate needs and monitor progress toward international targets for malaria control at the global scale. National prevalence surveys in each nation would reduce this uncertainty profoundly. Opportunities for further reducing uncertainty in clinical burden estimates by hybridizing alternative burden estimation procedures are also evaluated. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary 相似文献17.
Rajiv Sarkar Jacqueline E. Tate Sitara S. R. Ajjampur Deepthi Kattula Jacob John Honorine D. Ward Gagandeep Kang 《PLoS neglected tropical diseases》2014,8(7)
Background
Cryptosporidium spp. is a common, but under-reported cause of childhood diarrhea throughout the world, especially in developing countries. A comprehensive estimate of the burden of cryptosporidiosis in resource-poor settings is not available.Methodology/Principal Findings
We used published and unpublished studies to estimate the burden of diarrhea, hospitalization and mortality due to cryptosporidial infections in Indian children. Our estimates suggest that annually, one in every 6–11 children <2 years of age will have an episode of cryptosporidial diarrhea, 1 in every 169–633 children will be hospitalized and 1 in every 2890–7247 children will die due to cryptosporidiosis. Since there are approximately 42 million children <2 years of age in India, it is estimated that Cryptosporidium results in 3.9–7.1 million diarrheal episodes, 66.4–249.0 thousand hospitalizations, and 5.8–14.6 thousand deaths each year.Conclusions/Significance
The findings of this study suggest a high burden of cryptosporidiosis among children <2 years of age in India and makes a compelling case for further research on transmission and prevention modalities of Cryptosporidium spp. in India and other developing countries. 相似文献18.
Background
Relatively few data exist on the burden of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and use of renal replacement therapy (RRT)–a life-saving therapy–in developing regions. No study has quantified the proportion of patients who develop ESRD but are unable to access RRT.Methods
We performed a comprehensive literature search to estimate use and annual initiation of RRT worldwide, and present these estimates according to World Bank regions. We also present estimates of survival and of etiology of diseases in patients undergoing RRT. Using data on prevalence of diabetes and hypertension, we modeled the incidence of ESRD related to these risk factors in order to quantify the gap between ESRD and use of RRT in developing regions.Results
We find that 1.9 million patients are undergoing RRT worldwide, with continued use and annual initiation at 316 and 73 per million population respectively. RRT use correlates directly (Pearson’s r = 0.94) with regional income. Hemodialysis remains the dominant form of RRT but there is wide regional variation in its use. With the exception of the Latin American and Caribbean region, it appears that initiation of RRT in developing regions is restricted to fewer than a quarter of patients projected to develop ESRD. This results in at least 1.2 million premature deaths each year due to lack of access to RRT as a result of diabetes and elevated blood pressure and as many as 3.2 million premature deaths due to all causes of ESRD.Conclusion
Thus, the majority of patients projected to reach ESRD due to diabetes or hypertension in developing regions are unable to access RRT; this gap will increase with rising prevalence of these risk factors worldwide. 相似文献19.
Background
Approximately 2.4 million people are living with HIV in India. This large disease burden, and potential for epidemic spread in some areas, demands a full understanding of transmission in that country. We wished to quantify the effects of key sexual risk factors for HIV infection for each gender and among high- and low-HIV risk populations in India.Methodology
We conducted a systematic review of sexual risk factors for HIV infection from 35 published studies. Risk factors analyzed were: male circumcision/religion, Herpes Simplex Virus 2, syphilis, gonorrhoea, genital ulcer, multiple sexual partners and commercial sex. Studies were included if they met predetermined criteria. Data were extracted and checked by two researchers and random-effects meta analysis of effects was conducted. Heterogeneity in effect estimates was examined by I2 statistic. Publication bias was tested by Begg''s test and funnel plots. Meta regression was used to assess effect modification by various study attributes.Results
All risk factors were significantly associated with HIV status. The factor most strongly associated with HIV for both sexes was HSV-2 infection (ORmen: 5.87; 95%CI: 2.46–14.03; ORwomen: 6.44; 95%CI: 3.22–12.86). The effect of multiple sexual partners was similar among men (OR = 2.46; 95%CI: 1.91–3.17,) and women (OR = 2.02; 95%CI: 1.43–2.87) and when further stratified by HIV-risk group. The association between HSV-2 and HIV prevalence was consistently stronger than other STIs or self-reported genital ulcer. If the strong associations between HSV-2 and HIV were interpreted causally, these results implied that approximately half of the HIV infections observed in our study population were attributable to HSV-2 infection.Conclusions
The risk factors examined in our analysis should remain targets of HIV prevention programs. Our results confirm that sexual risk factors for HIV infection continue to be an important part of Indian HIV epidemic 26 years after it began. 相似文献20.
Martial L. Ndeffo Mbah Eric M. Poolman Katherine E. Atkins Evan W. Orenstein Lauren Ancel Meyers Jeffrey P. Townsend Alison P. Galvani 《PLoS neglected tropical diseases》2013,7(8)