A pre-European settlement pollen–climate calibration set for Minnesota, USA: developing tools for palaeoclimatic reconstructions

Aim The bias in modern North American pollen assemblages by landscape disturbance from Euro‐American settlement has long been overlooked in the construction of pollen–climate transfer functions. Our aim is to examine this problem and to develop an unbiased pre‐settlement pollen–climate transfer function, and to test its performance and inference power in comparison with commonly used techniques. Location Minnesota, USA, is of palaeoclimatic interest because within the state are located two continental‐scale ecotones, controlled by temperature and available moisture. Shifts of these ecotones can be tracked using palaeoecological techniques. Methods Using a data set of pre‐settlement pollen assemblages from 133 lakes, which were coupled to climate data from the earliest instrumental records (i.e. 1895–1924), a pre‐settlement pollen–climate data set was developed that lacked the influence of anthropogenic landscape disturbance. A corresponding modern pollen data set (from lake sediment core tops) and a modern climate (i.e. 1961–90) data set were also developed. The two pollen sets were compared to demonstrate the effects of landscape disturbance from human activities. Ordination (redundancy analysis with Monte Carlo permutation tests) and regression techniques (generalized linear modelling) were used to establish the relationships between the early instrumental climate variables and pre‐settlement pollen assemblages and individual taxa, respectively. Transfer functions for the most suitable climate variables (i.e. those forming a minimal set of non‐collinear climate variables that explained the greatest amount of pollen variance) were developed from the pre‐settlement data set using bootstrapping. Results Comparison of pre‐settlement pollen and modern pollen showed an over‐representation of Ambrosia, Chenopodiaceae and Poaceae, and an under‐representation of arboreal taxa (e.g. Pinus, Quercus, Ostrya) in the modern assemblages. Not surprisingly, ordination and regression techniques showed a strong relationship between the early instrumental climate variables and pre‐settlement pollen assemblages and taxa. Transfer functions were developed for May and February mean temperature and available moisture. Pre‐settlement transfer functions substantially improved the root mean squared error by 37–72% in comparison with modern transfer functions inferring pre‐settlement conditions, suggesting that the modern transfer functions have poorer predictive abilities. Main conclusions For climatic reconstructions, there can be a serious distortion of inferences based solely on modern pollen–climate data sets in regions where anthropogenic landscape disturbance has occurred. By using historical climate data, coupled with pre‐disturbance pollen assemblages, robust transfer functions for temperature and effective moisture were developed.     

Growing Season Temperatures in Europe and Climate Forcings Over the Past 1400 Years

Background

The lack of instrumental data before the mid-19th-century limits our understanding of present warming trends. In the absence of direct measurements, we used proxies that are natural or historical archives recording past climatic changes. A gridded reconstruction of spring-summer temperature was produced for Europe based on tree-rings, documentaries, pollen assemblages and ice cores. The majority of proxy series have an annual resolution. For a better inference of long-term climate variation, they were completed by low-resolution data (decadal or more), mostly on pollen and ice-core data.

Methodology/Principal Findings

An original spectral analog method was devised to deal with this heterogeneous dataset, and to preserve long-term variations and the variability of temperature series. So we can replace the recent climate changes in a broader context of the past 1400 years. This preservation is possible because the method is not based on a calibration (regression) but on similarities between assemblages of proxies. The reconstruction of the April-September temperatures was validated with a Jack-knife technique. It was also compared to other spatially gridded temperature reconstructions, literature data, and glacier advance and retreat curves. We also attempted to relate the spatial distribution of European temperature anomalies to known solar and volcanic forcings.

Conclusions

We found that our results were accurate back to 750. Cold periods prior to the 20^th century can be explained partly by low solar activity and/or high volcanic activity. The Medieval Warm Period (MWP) could be correlated to higher solar activity. During the 20^th century, however only anthropogenic forcing can explain the exceptionally high temperature rise. Warm periods of the Middle Age were spatially more heterogeneous than last decades, and then locally it could have been warmer. However, at the continental scale, the last decades were clearly warmer than any period of the last 1400 years. The heterogeneity of MWP versus the homogeneity of the last decades is likely an argument that different forcings could have operated. These results support the fact that we are living a climate change in Europe never seen in the past 1400 years.     

Are pollen-based climate models improved by combining surface samples from soil and lacustrine substrates?

Differences between pollen assemblages obtained from lacustrine and terrestrial surface sediments may affect the ability to obtain reliable pollen-based climate reconstructions. We test the effect of combining modern pollen samples from multiple depositional environments on various pollen-based climate reconstruction methods using modern pollen samples from British Columbia, Canada and adjacent Washington, Montana, Idaho and Oregon states. This dataset includes samples from a number of depositional environments including soil and lacustrine sediments.Combining lacustrine and terrestrial (soil) samples increases root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP) for reconstructions of summer growing degree days when weighted-averaging partial-least-squares (WAPLS), weighted-averaging (WA) and the non-metric-multidimensional-scaling/generalized-additive-models (NMDS/GAM) are used but reduces RMSEP for randomForest, the modern analogue technique (MAT) and the Mixed method, although a slight increase occurs for MAT at the highest sample size. Summer precipitation reconstructions using MAT, randomForest and NMDS/GAM suffer from increased RMSEP when both lacustrine and terrestrial samples are used, but WA, WAPLS and the Mixed method show declines in RMSEP.These results indicate that researchers interested in using pollen databases to reconstruct climate variables need to consider the depositional environments of samples within the analytical dataset since pooled datasets can increase model error for some climate variables. However, since the effects of the pooled datasets will vary between climate variables and between pollen-based climate reconstruction methods we do not reject the use of mixed samples altogether. We finish by proposing steps to test whether significant reductions in model error can be obtained by splitting or combining samples from multiple substrates.     

1200 years of fire and vegetation history in the Willamette Valley, Oregon and Washington, reconstructed using high-resolution macroscopic charcoal and pollen analysis

High-resolution macroscopic charcoal and pollen analyses were used to reconstruct the fire and vegetation history of the Willamette Valley for the last 1200 years. Presented in this paper are three new paleoecological reconstructions from Lake Oswego, Porter Lake, and Warner Lake, Oregon, and portions of previous reconstructions from Battle Ground Lake, Washington, and Beaver Lake, Oregon. The reconstructions show that prior to Euro-American settlement vegetation and fire regimes were influenced by a combination of natural and anthropogenic factors. Battle Ground Lake shows a stronger influence from climate, while Lake Oswego, Beaver Lake, Porter Lake, and Warner Lake were more controlled by human activity. However, human-set fires were also modulated by regional climate variability during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age. Fire reconstructions from Battle Ground Lake, Lake Oswego, Beaver Lake, and Porter Lake imply that fires were infrequent in the Willamette Valley 200-300 years prior to Euro-American settlement. The decline of Native American populations due to introduced disease may have led to this reduction in fire activity. The prehistoric record from Warner Lake, however, indicates that fires in the foothills of the Cascade Range were more frequent than on the valley floor, at least until ca. AD 1800. The historic portions of the reconstructions indicate that Euro-American land clearance for agriculture and logging produced the most dramatic shifts in vegetation and fire regimes. All five records indicate that few fires in the Willamette Valley have occurred since ca. AD 1930, and fires today are predominantly grass fires.     

Improved reconstruction of palaeo-environments through unravelling of preserved vegetation biomarker patterns

Montane forest composition and specifically the position of the upper forest line (UFL) is very sensitive to climate change and human interference. As a consequence, reconstructions of past altitudinal UFL dynamics and forest species composition are crucial instruments to infer past climate change and assess the impact of (pre)historic human settlement. One of the most detailed methods available to date to reconstruct past vegetation dynamics is the analysis of fossil pollen. Unfortunately, fossil pollen analysis does not distinguish beyond family or generic level in most cases, while its spatial resolution is limited amongst others by wind-blown dispersal of pollen, affecting the accuracy of pollen-based reconstructions of UFL positions. To overcome these limitations, we developed a new method based on the analysis of plant-specific groups of biomarkers preserved in suitable archives, such as peat deposits, that are unravelled into the plant species of origin by the newly developed VERHIB model. Here we present this new method of biomarker analysis and describe its first application in a peat sequence from a biodiversity hotspot of montane rainforest in the Ecuadorian Andes. We show how a combination of the new biomarker application with conventional pollen analysis from the same peat sequence yields a reconstruction of past forest compositions, including UFL dynamics, with previously unattainable detail.     

Human impact, soil erosion, and vegetation response lags to climate change: challenges for the mid-Scandinavian pollen-based transfer-function temperature reconstructions

Precise and accurate reconstructions of past environmental parameters from high-quality palaeoenvironmental studies are critical for realistic testing of climate models. To ascertain the reliability of the reconstructions of the past, cross-validation from a variety of proxies and methods is essential. Mid-Scandinavia, showing a variety of palaeoecological studies, is a suitable region for comparing and validating environmental reconstructions. Here, pollen-based transfer-function reconstructions show inconsistent late-glacial temperature patterns. They also show that the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM) occurs at ca. 7.5–4.5 cal. ka b.p. However, thermal indicators (pollen, megafossils, plant macrofossils) place the HTM at no later than ca. 10–7.5 cal. ka b.p. It is argued that after the onset of the early Holocene warming equilibrium between vegetation and climate was established over a prolonged period; i.e. ca. 1,500 and 4,000 years in the mountains and lowlands, respectively. In the mountains, soil drought, wind and winter stress were important factors causing the lag, whereas inter-specific competition and soil development delayed the succession within the species-diverse lowland forests. These lags when vegetation was not filling its thermal potential result in a distortion of the temperature signal as derived by transfer functions which assume that vegetation is essentially in equilibrium with climate. Due to widespread human impact and erosion today, many modern training set samples are unsuitable as reference material for past environmental conditions. Various recommendations are suggested towards making improvements in the pollen-transfer function approach to climate reconstructions. To overcome the difficulties resulting from vegetation lags in the early Holocene, proxies that have a faster response time to climate, such as chironomids and aquatic plants including algae, may replace terrestrial pollen.     

Modern pollen assemblages as climate indicators in southern Europe

Aim and Location Our aim is to develop pollen–climate inference models for southern Europe and to test their performance and inference power by cross‐validation with modern climate data. Surface sediments collected from lakes along a climate gradient from the winter‐cold/summer‐wet Alps to winter‐wet/summer‐dry Sicily were analysed for modern pollen assemblages. Methods For each lake, mean monthly temperatures, seasonal precipitation and site‐specific climate uncertainties have been estimated. Pollen–climate relationships were studied using numerical analyses, and inference models were derived by partial least squares (PLS) and weighted‐averaging PLS (WA‐PLS) regressions for January and July temperatures (T), and for winter, spring and summer precipitation (P). In order to assess whether these variables are also of ecological importance for vegetation in the subregions, we split the data set into an Alpine and a Mediterranean subset. Results Low bootstrap cross‐validated root mean square errors of prediction (RMSEP) for January T (1.7 °C), July T (2.1 °C) and summer P (38 mm), as well as low RMSEPs expressed as a percentage of the gradient length (8–9%), indicate a good inference power. Models revealed excellent to good performance statistics for January T, July T and summer P (r²= 0.8), and for winter and spring P (r²=c. 0.5). We show that the variables with the highest explanatory power differ between the two subregions. These are summer T and P for the Alpine set, and January T, winter P and July T for the Mediterranean set. Main conclusions The study reveals the influence of climatic conditions during the growing season on modern pollen assemblages and indicates the potential of pollen data for long‐term climate reconstructions of parameters such as winter precipitation and temperature, which seem to be the main factors having an influence on the variability of Mediterranean climate. These models may therefore provide important information on past regional climate variability in southern Europe.     

Using quantitative pollen-based land-cover estimations and a spatial CA_Markov model to reconstruct the development of cultural landscape at Rõuge,South Estonia

Quantitative pollen-based land-cover reconstruction covering the last 4,000 years was performed using transformation coefficients derived from a modern pollen land-cover database and a palynological record from an annually laminated sequence in Lake Rõuge Tõugjärv. Proportions of four land-cover classes characteristic of cultural landscape were reconstructed: habitation area, arable land, grassland and woodland. A land-use change model using CA_Markov analysis was applied for spatial reconstructions for seven periods: 600 b.c., a.d. 300, 800, 1200, 1700, 1870 and 1940. Historical maps from a.d. 1684, 1870–1899 and 1935 were used for calibration of quantitative estimates and to validate spatial reconstructions. The accuracy of the estimates depends on the availability of modern analogues and differs among land-cover classes, being highest for classes with directly connectable pollen indicator types (arable land, forest) and lowest for settlement areas. Spatial reconstructions produced by the CA_Markov land-cover change model show moderate accordance with historical data. However, the large uncertainties in land-cover input data must be considered in the evaluation of the KIA results of the spatial model. Permanent low intensity, rural land-use in the Rõuge area started at the beginning of the Bronze Age (c. 1800 b.c.). The major increase in the extent of rural land-use took place at the beginning of the 13th century and culminated during the 19th century when c. 90% of the RSAP of Rõuge Tõugjärv was open. During the last century, rural land-use decreased constantly.     

Pollen-based quantitative reconstructions of Holocene climate variability in NW Romania

A modern analogue technique is applied to two high-resolution pollen sequences from NW Romania to provide the first quantitative evidence for winter, summer and annual temperatures and for precipitation across the Holocene in this region.

The pollen-based climate reconstructions allow the identification of four main intervals: i) an early, less stable period between 11,700 and 11,200 cal. yr BP; (ii) generally stable conditions between 11,200 and 8300 cal. yr BP with winter and annual temperatures and precipitation higher than at present, and summer temperatures about the same; (iii) lower winter and annual temperatures, and higher summer temperatures and precipitation between 8000 and 2400 cal. yr BP; (iv) warmer winter and annual temperatures and lower precipitation for the last 2400 years, whereas summer temperatures became cooler at Steregoiu and remained stable at Preluca Tiganului.

The pollen-based climate reconstructions at the two sites show similar patterns in annual and winter temperatures and precipitation changes during the Holocene, but the trends appear to be less consistent for summer temperatures.

Our pollen-based reconstructions revealed several short-term climatic oscillations during the Holocene, the strongest of which occur between 10,300–10,100, 8300–8000, 6800–6400, 5100–4900, 4000–3600 and 3200–3000 cal. yr BP.     

Vegetation and Climate Change during the Last Deglaciation in the Great Khingan Mountain,Northeastern China

The Great Khingan Mountain range, Northeast China, is located on the northern limit of modern East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) and thus highly sensitive to the extension of the EASM from glacial to interglacial modes. Here, we present a high-resolution pollen record covering the last glacial maximum and the early Holocene from a closed crater Lake Moon to reconstruct vegetation history during the glacial-interglacial transition and thus register the evolution of the EASM during the last deglaciation. The vegetation history has gone through distinct changes from subalpine meadow in the last glacial maximum to dry steppe dominated by Artemisia from 20.3 to 17.4 ka BP, subalpine meadow dominated by Cyperaceae and Artemisia between 17.4 and 14.4 ka BP, and forest steppe dominated by Betula and Artemisia after 14.4 ka BP. The pollen-based temperature index demonstrates a gradual warming trend started at around 20.3 ka BP with interruptions of several brief events. Two cold conditions occurred around at 17.2–16.6 ka BP and 12.8–11.8 ka BP, temporally correlating to the Henrich 1 and the Younger Dryas events respectively, 1and abrupt warming events occurred around at 14.4 ka BP and 11.8 ka BP, probably relevant to the beginning of the Bølling-Allerød stages and the Holocene. The pollen-based moisture proxy shows distinct drought condition during the last glacial maximum (20.3–18.0 ka BP) and the Younger Dryas. The climate history based on pollen record of Lake Moon suggests that the regional temperature variability was coherent with the classical climate in the North Atlantic, implying the dominance of the high latitude processes on the EASM evolution from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to early Holocene. The local humidity variability was influenced by the EASM limitedly before the Bølling-Allerød warming, which is mainly controlled by the summer rainfall due to the EASM front covering the Northeast China after that.     

The interpretation of fen carr pollen diagrams: pollen–vegetation relationships within the fen carr

Sediments deposited in fen carr environments are frequently used in pollen-based reconstructions of vegetation history, although few studies of modern pollen–vegetation relationships in fen carr have been undertaken to aid the interpretation of fossil assemblages. It is often assumed that the wetland pollen signal will reflect the overall composition of the fen carr system although, given the closed canopy context, it may actually be dominated by local vegetation elements. This paper seeks to determine whether the vegetation heterogeneity within a modern fen carr is reflected in the pollen signal of the wetland taxa. Vegetation composition was recorded around a series of moss polster sample points at Calthorpe and Wheatfen, two areas of fen carr in the Norfolk Broadland, UK. The spatial interrelationship between the wetland components of the vegetation and their palynological equivalents in the moss polster pollen assemblages is explored through trend surfaces and a correlation based statistical test (the Mantel Test). The representation of the major vegetation components in the pollen record is highly variable. Values for Alnus glutinosa, a dominant canopy species, range from 5.3% to 73% of total land pollen (TLP) at Calthorpe and 2.5–61% TLP at Wheatfen. In part, this variation reflects the enhanced input of pollen from dry land sources close to the wetland edge although the variation recorded at points equidistant from the dry land margin suggests that other processes are also influential. The strongest positive associations in the Mantel Test are for under-storey and ground flora elements that are poorly represented in the pollen record. Taxa for which there is no association include those with few vegetation occurrences and those for which a large proportion of the pollen appears to have been derived from outside the study areas. We conclude that modern pollen samples collected from fen carr broadly reflect the vegetation composition of the study areas. However, the input of pollen from fen carr species is spatially inconsistent. Differences between the sample points can be attributed to the distribution and pollination biology of the under-storey and ground flora elements and the structure of the vegetation around sites. The results caution against assuming that changes in the pollen representation of wetland taxa, in fossil sequences constructed from fen carr deposits, necessarily reflect changes in the overall composition of the community.     

Modern pollen-vegetation relationships within a small Mediterranean temporary pool (western Morocco)

Morocco is rich in temporary pools which harbour numerous rare plant species. Long-term conservation of such threatened plant communities should be based on the understanding of their past dynamics. Despite conditions unfavourable to pollen preservation, surface sediments of acidic temporary pools are shown to contain pollen assemblages likely to allow vegetation reconstruction. Knowledge of the modern relationships between pollen and vegetation is, however, necessary for interpreting fossil data in terms of past vegetation. Surface pollen assemblages and floristic surveys of a temporary pool in Benslimane forest, western Morocco, are compared in order to evaluate the pollen record of the local hydrophytic vegetation. Floristic surveys were carried out for 12 years (1996-2008) along two crossing permanent transects. A set of 21 surface-sediment samples, taken along the same transects in 2007, were analysed for pollen. The spatial relationships between vegetation and pollen assemblages are explored by means of multivariate analyses, statistical tests and linear regressions. The calculation of representation indices moreover allows proposing quantitative ways for pollen-based plant-abundance reconstruction.Results reveal that the vegetation structure along the hydrological gradient is well recorded in the pollen assemblages, with: (1) a marginal zone characterised by terrestrial taxa and rare amphibious taxa (Elatine, Pilularia), (2) an intermediate zone of amphibious taxa (Alisma-type, Illecebrum/Paronychia, Isoetes velata-type), and (3) a central zone of aquatics (Myriophyllum alterniflorum, Ranunculus-type). The best correlation between the pollen record and total pool vegetation was found in the centre of the pool, which supports the reliability of the study of a single core from the centre of the pool for the reconstruction of the past dynamics of the local hydrophytic vegetation. Both the qualitative ‘community’ approach (representation indices and indicator pollen taxa) and the quantitative ‘taxa’ approach (correction factors) suggest that reconstructions of past populations can be achieved from a few taxa, namely Isoetes velata-type, Myriophyllum alterniflorum and Ranunculus-type. For these taxa, regression parameters (slope and y-intercept) have been calculated between pollen percentages and plant percentages in present vegetation, and between pollen influxes and plant abundances, respectively. These parameters can be extended to interpret fossil data from other temporary pools within the same region to reconstruct their relative and absolute past plant abundances.     

Palaeoecology and plant population dynamics

The pollen record of the past 10–20 thousand years is a source of data both on long-term climatic change and on the dynamics of plant populations in response to climatic change. Time sequences of pollen accumulation rates record invasions of tree taxa over 10¹–10³ years. Palaeoecologists have fifted such data with simple population dynamic models that assume a constant climate. Population doubling times estimated from the pollen record are consistent with species' life-history characteristics and with estimates based on the population structure of modern forests. This palaeo-ecological approach complements palaeoclimatological studies of longeer-term (10³–10⁵-year) population shifts, in which population response is assumed instantaneous. Both approaches depend on population responses being fast compared to the climatic changes that cause them. Pollen data also record the more complex interactions between climate and vegetation that occur during periods of rapid climatic change, and could be used to test more realistic models of vegetation dynamics in a changing environment.     

Arctic shrub colonization lagged peak postglacial warmth: Molecular evidence in lake sediment from Arctic Canada

Arctic shrubification is an observable consequence of climate change, already resulting in ecological shifts and global‐scale climate feedbacks including changes in land surface albedo and enhanced evapotranspiration. However, the rate at which shrubs can colonize previously glaciated terrain in a warming world is largely unknown. Reconstructions of past vegetation dynamics in conjunction with climate records can provide critical insights into shrubification rates and controls on plant migration, but paleoenvironmental reconstructions based on pollen may be biased by the influx of exotic pollen to tundra settings. Here, we reconstruct past plant communities using sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA), which has a more local source area than pollen. We additionally reconstruct past temperature variability using bacterial cell membrane lipids (branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers) and an aquatic productivity indicator (biogenic silica) to evaluate the relative timing of postglacial ecological and climate changes at a lake on southern Baffin Island, Arctic Canada. The sedaDNA record tightly constrains the colonization of dwarf birch (Betula, a thermophilous shrub) to 5.9 ± 0.1 ka, ~3 ka after local deglaciation as determined by cosmogenic ¹⁰Be moraine dating and >2 ka later than Betula pollen is recorded in nearby lake sediment. We then assess the paleovegetation history within the context of summer temperature and find that paleotemperatures were highest prior to 6.3 ka, followed by cooling in the centuries preceding Betula establishment. Together, these molecular proxies reveal that Betula colonization lagged peak summer temperatures, suggesting that inefficient dispersal, rather than climate, may have limited Arctic shrub migration in this region. In addition, these data suggest that pollen‐based climate reconstructions from high latitudes, which rely heavily on the presence and abundance of pollen from thermophilous taxa like Betula, can be compromised by both exotic pollen fluxes and vegetation migration lags.     

A modern pollen–climate calibration set from northern Europe: developing and testing a tool for palaeoclimatological reconstructions

Aims and location The potential of pollen records in quantitative climate reconstructions has been widely debated but seldom tested. Our aim is to develop a pollen–climate transfer function for northern Europe and test its performance and inference power by numerical cross‐validation with modern climate data. Annual mean temperature (T_ann) was assessed as the critical climatic variable because T_ann has a distinct south–north gradient (5.5 to ?4.7 °C) in the study region with a corresponding zonal vegetation gradient from the hemiboreal zone in the south to the northern boreal zone in the north. Methods We collected 137 pollen surface samples from small‐ to medium size lakes from southern Estonia to northern Finland. The transfer function for T_ann was developed with weighted averaging partial least squares (WA‐PLS) regression. All 102 terrestrial pollen and spore types were included in the calculation sum and all 137 surface samples and all 102 taxa were included in the transfer function. The performance of the WA‐PLS transfer function was evaluated by leave‐one‐out cross‐validation. Results A cross‐validated root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) of our model is 0.89 °C and the coefficient of determination (r²) between the observed meteorological T_ann values and those predicted by the model in leave‐one‐out cross‐validation is 0.88. The RMSEP as a percentage of the gradient length of T_ann is 8.8%. These figures indicate high performance statistics for our transfer function compared with other inference models. This is probably because of standardization of our surface‐sampling and pollen‐analytical procedures, careful selection of the surface sample sites with consideration of the relevant pollen source area, the simple patterns of vegetation zones and climate in the study area, and the mostly natural floristic composition of the forests in northern Europe. However, we also demonstrate the limitations of our model in reliably detecting fine‐scale climatic variability. Main conclusions The study shows the strong influence of T_ann on modern pollen composition and demonstrates the potential of pollen data for long‐term climate reconstructions in northern Europe. It also provides evidence against simple interpretations of fine‐scale variations in a single climate reconstruction. In particular, our results highlight the importance of careful study design and implementation in the construction of pollen–climate transfer functions.     

Vegetation and climate reconstructions on different time scales in China: a review of Chinese palynological research

This paper reviews vegetation and climate reconstructions for different time scales based on palynological studies in China. It discusses examples of significant developments in palynological research topics within China: (1) Modern pollen—a modern pollen database (East Asia Surface Pollen Database) has been established through the collaboration of Chinese palynologists. Based on these data, modern pollen distributions and their quantitative relationship with vegetation and climate have been thoroughly studied. (2) Pre-Quaternary vegetation and climate dynamics—scientists have mapped pollen and palaeobotanical data from the Palaeogene. The vegetation distributions confirm a north–south zonal pattern during the Palaeogene that changed to an east–west monsoonal pattern during the Miocene and Pliocene. These results provide key evidence for understanding monsoon evolution. (3) Late-Quaternary vegetation—biome reconstructions based on fossil pollen data show spatial and temporal changes in vegetation since the Last Glacial Maximum, permitting a better understanding of climate change across China. (4) Quantitative climate reconstructions—some reconstructions have successfully detected Holocene climate variability thereby providing insights into monsoon history. At present, there are no comprehensive spatial reconstructions. Major possible future developments should focus on: (1) long-term vegetation reconstructions from lakes to study Asian monsoon dynamics at orbital scales; (2) quantitative reconstructions of vegetation and climate change to help stronger integration with palaeoclimate models and dynamic vegetation models; (3) land-cover and land-use change across China over the last 6,000 years to understand human impacts and provide empirical data for climate modellers; and (4) integration of pollen data with vegetation and climate modelling to understand the CO₂-vegetation relationship and climate dynamics.     

A modern pollen–climate calibration set based on lake sediments from the Tibetan Plateau and its application to a Late Quaternary pollen record from the Qilian Mountains

Aim Fossil pollen spectra from lake sediments on the Tibetan Plateau have been used for qualitative climate reconstruction, but no modern pollen–climate calibration set based on lake sediments is available to infer past climate quantitatively. This study aims to develop such a dataset and apply it to fossil data. Location The Tibetan Plateau, between 30 and 40° N and 87 and 103° E. Methods We collected surface sediments from 112 lakes and analysed them palynologically. The lakes span a wide range of mean annual precipitation (P_ann; 31–1022 mm), mean annual temperature (T_ann; −6.5 to 1 °C), and mean July temperature (T_July; 2.6–19.7 °C). Redundancy analysis showed that the modern pollen spectra are characteristic of their respective vegetation types and local climate. Transfer functions for P_ann, T_ann and T_July were developed with weighted averaging partial least squares. Model performance was assessed by leave-one-out cross-validation. Results The root mean square errors of prediction (RMSEP) were 104 mm (P_ann), 1.18 °C (T_ann) and 1.17 °C (T_July). The RMSEPs, when expressed as percentages of the gradient sampled, were 10.6% (P_ann), 15.7% (T_ann) and 11.9% (T_July). These low values indicate the good performance of our models. An application of the models to fossil pollen spectra covering the last c. 50 kyr yielded realistic results for Luanhaizi Lake in the Qilian Mountains on the north-eastern Tibetan Plateau (modern P_ann 480 mm; T_ann−1 °C). T_ann and P_ann values similar to present ones were reconstructed for late Marine Isotope Stage 3, with minimum values for the Last Glacial Maximum (c. 300 mm and 2 °C below present), and maximum values for the early Holocene (c. 70 mm and 0.5 °C greater than present). Main conclusions The modern pollen–climate calibration set will potentially be useful for quantitative climate reconstructions from lake-sediment pollen spectra from the Tibetan Plateau, an area of considerable climatic and biogeographical importance.     

Lake-based climate reconstruction in Africa: progress and challenges

Lake sediments are and will continue to be the principal source of information on the climate history of tropical Africa. However, unequivocal interpretation of the various sedimentological, biological, and geochemical climate-proxy data extracted from lake sediments with respect to past variations in temperature, rainfall, and wind is an extremely complex and challenging exercise. Outstanding problems are: (1) the inherent conflict between a lake's sensitivity to climate change (its ability to respond to and record relatively modest, short-lived climatic anomalies) and its persistence as an archive of climate change (the probability that it survived the most arid events without desiccation or erosion, allowing it to preserve a continuous record of climate history); (2) the scarcity of annually laminated sediment records, which in other regions can provide superior chronological precision to lake-based climate reconstructions; (3) lack of a quantitative (sometimes even qualitative) mechanistic understanding of the chain of cause and effect linking sedimentary climate-proxy indicators to particular climatic variables; and (4) lack of a proxy indicator for past temperature changes unaffected by simultaneous changes in moisture balance. Clearly, a climate-proxy record with high stratigraphic resolution does not represent a high-resolution record of past climate change without demonstration that the sedimentary archive is continuous and undisturbed; that the lake system responds to climate variability at the appropriate time scale; and that any threshold effects in the relationship between the proxy indicator and climate are accounted for. Calibration and validation of climate-proxy indicators is tantamount to establishing accurate reconstructions, but in Africa historical validation of proxy indicators is handicapped by the scarcity of long-term lake-monitoring data. The reliability of lake-based climate reconstructions is enhanced when inferences derived from several proxy indicators (sedimentological, biological, or geochemical), that each have an independent mechanistic link to climate, show a high level of coherence. Given the scarcity of annually-resolved sediment records in tropical Africa, we may have to accept the limitations of ²¹⁰Pb- and ¹⁴C-based chronologies when evaluating the synchrony of reconstructed climate events between sites and regions; however, careful site selection and detailed lithostratigraphic analyses can go a long way to optimise depth-age models and reduce uncertainty in the timing of past climate changes.     

基于文献计量学的近30年(1990-2020)第四纪孢粉学研究现状与展望

第四纪孢粉学利用现代和化石孢粉重建第四纪古植被、古气候和古环境,属于可持续发展的前沿学科领域。本文基于CiteSpace软件数据可视化和计量分析模块,以CNKI (中国知网)数据库与Web of Science核心数据库中1990–2020年间的共计6081篇第四纪孢粉学相关文献为基础,梳理了近30年来第四纪孢粉学的过去和现在,并探讨了未来发展趋势。研究结果表明,近30年第四纪孢粉学领域发文量呈增加趋势,中国的总发文量和国际影响力整体呈增长趋势;第四纪孢粉学研究主要集中于各大高校和科研院所,研究成果有明显的聚集性;中国科学院是外文发文量最多的国际机构。第四纪孢粉学近30年的研究主要涉及古植物学、古地理学、古生态学和古气候学等领域,古植被、古气候、古环境的定性和定量重建一直是国内外学者关注和研究的重点。表土花粉研究、花粉与人类活动、亚洲季风演变和孢粉分类学是近几年发刊的热点。虽然一些关键词如花粉产量、代表性以及现代花粉与植被和气候的定量关系等出现频次低,但对第四纪孢粉学十分重要。未来还需要进一步加强湖泊表层沉积物的花粉研究,探讨花粉与植被、气候的定量关系,为准确解译化石花粉提供坚实基础。...     

Reconstructing land cover from pollen assemblages from small lakes in Denmark

A calibration data set of AD 1800 pollen assemblages and land cover from 30 lake sites (3.5–33 ha) in Denmark is analysed. Canonical ordination (RDA) shows that the distance-weighted land cover of woodland, heathland and open field explain the highest proportion of the variation in the pollen data. Four different distance-weighting functions, 1, 1/d, 1/d² and an approximation of the Sugita model of pollen dispersal, are applied to the land-cover data, and the 1/d function results in the strongest correlation between distance-weighted land cover and pollen proportions. Partial least squares (PLS) calibration is applied, and land cover around nine test sites (not included in the calibration data set) is reconstructed from pollen assemblages. The Extended R-value (ERV) model is applied to the pollen proportions and distance-weighted plant abundance inferred from the maps. Pollen productivity and background components are estimated from the calibration data set and used to reconstruct plant abundance around the test sites. The reconstructed land cover and plant abundance are compared with historical maps, and the performance of the two models is compared. Root-mean-squared errors for the two models are within the same ranges but tend to be slightly lower for the ERV model. Division of the data set into two regional subsets does not improve the reconstructions.