Implications of newly-formed seed-dispersal mutualisms between birds and introduced plants in northern California,USA

I examined the role of bird dispersal in invasiveness of three non-native plant species in California, USA: Triadica sebifera, Ligustrum lucidum, and Olea europaea. I selected these species because their invasiveness in California is uncertain, but a survey of ornithologists highlighted them as likely bird-dispersed. I quantified bird frugivory of these plants, compared them with a native species (Heteromeles arbutifolia), and explored the management implications of dispersal mutualisms for these and other incipient invasive plants. Fruit removal by birds was sufficient to permit spread for all study species. Seed dispersers (rather than seed predators) and pulse feeders (flocking species with potential for long distance dispersal) performed most fruit removal for the non-native species, a pattern indicative of an effective dispersal regime. The number of fruiting trees per stand was a significant predictor of bird visitation. Founding population size may thus be important in management of invasive, bird-dispersed plants. Disperser-defined niches were relatively narrow because a few disperser species performed the majority of fruit removal from study trees, but each fruit species was consumed by a variety of potential dispersers. This results in strong pairwise niche overlap between some plant species. Ordinated by bird use, study site-species combinations clustered more by geographic location than by plant species, emphasizing the opportunistic nature of bird foraging. None of the non-native focal plant species appears dispersal limited, and all have formed novel mutualisms in California. It is possible that these plants are now in lag phases preceding bird-mediated invasion. Consideration of bird dispersal when evaluating invasiveness is therefore an imperative.     

Prioritising plant-parasitic nematode species biosecurity risks using self organising maps

The biosecurity risks from many plant-parasitic nematode (PPN) species are poorly known and remain a major challenge for identifying potentially invasive species. A self organising map (SOM) was used to prioritise biosecurity risks from PPN to the whole of continental Australia as well as each of the states and the Northern Territory separately. The SOM used the recorded worldwide distributions of 250 systematically selected species from 43 genera, and identified 18 different countries spanning Asia, Africa, North and Central America, Europe and the Pacific with very similar PPN assemblages to Australia as a whole. Many of the species in these countries are not recorded in Australia, and therefore pose a biosecurity risk. Analysed separately, the states and territories were identified as forming five separate clusters, each with a different region of the world, and with different characteristic PPN. Many of the PPN found in the regions clustered with an Australian state have not been recorded from anywhere in Australia, and others have very restricted distributions within Australia, thus posing different biosecurity risks. The SOM analysis ranked the risks of the different PPN based on likelihoods of establishment. The rankings confirmed the risks from frequently quarantined PPN, but more importantly identified species, which upon further investigation could be new threats. This method can be used to identify previously overlooked species for more detailed risk assessments.     

Predicting invasive fungal pathogens using invasive pest assemblages: testing model predictions in a virtual world

Predicting future species invasions presents significant challenges to researchers and government agencies. Simply considering the vast number of potential species that could invade an area can be insurmountable. One method, recently suggested, which can analyse large datasets of invasive species simultaneously is that of a self organising map (SOM), a form of artificial neural network which can rank species by establishment likelihood. We used this method to analyse the worldwide distribution of 486 fungal pathogens and then validated the method by creating a virtual world of invasive species in which to test the SOM. This novel validation method allowed us to test SOM's ability to rank those species that can establish above those that can't. Overall, we found the SOM highly effective, having on average, a 96-98% success rate (depending on the virtual world parameters). We also found that regions with fewer species present (i.e. 1-10 species) were more difficult for the SOM to generate an accurately ranked list, with success rates varying from 100% correct down to 0% correct. However, we were able to combine the numbers of species present in a region with clustering patterns in the SOM, to further refine confidence in lists generated from these sparsely populated regions. We then used the results from the virtual world to determine confidences for lists generated from the fungal pathogen dataset. Specifically, for lists generated for Australia and its states and territories, the reliability scores were between 84-98%. We conclude that a SOM analysis is a reliable method for analysing a large dataset of potential invasive species and could be used by biosecurity agencies around the world resulting in a better overall assessment of invasion risk.     

基于最大熵值法生态位模型（Maxent）的三种实蝇潜在适生性分布预测

本研究首先对3种重要生态位模型BIOCLIM, DOMAIN和Maxent（基于最大熵值原理模型）的分布预测精确度进行了分析和比较, 再结合分布点记录以及一系列环境数据图层对3种重要外来入侵性检疫害虫（葫芦寡鬃实蝇Dacus bivittatus、埃塞俄比亚寡鬃实蝇D. ciliatus和西瓜寡鬃实蝇D. vertebratus）的潜在适生性分布区域进行了预测和分析。在模型预测精确度的比较过程中, 3种评估指标（ROC/AUC, Kappa, TSS）均显示Maxent拥有最好的预测结果和最好的运行性能。由Maxent对葫芦寡鬃实蝇、埃塞俄比亚寡鬃实蝇和西瓜寡鬃实蝇的预测结果显示, 这3种实蝇在中美洲、南美洲、东南亚和澳大利亚沿岸的广大地区在总体上具有相似的分布区域。相对而言, 埃塞俄比亚寡鬃实蝇在全球范围具有最为广泛的分布区域, 除前述地区外, 其潜在适生区还包括地中海沿岸、沙特阿拉伯、也门、安曼和伊朗南部的大片地区, 这也意味着在3种寡鬃实蝇中, 它能忍受变化幅度最广的生态、环境条件。在中国, 云南和海南都极适宜于3种实蝇的生存, 同时广东南部及台湾的部分地区也是它们的潜在适生区。基于Maxent的预测结果显示, 相对而言, 埃塞俄比亚寡鬃实蝇在中国范围也具有最为广泛的分布区域, 除前述省份和地区外, 四川、贵州和西藏的南部部分地区以及中国南部的部分沿海地区, 也都是它的潜在适生区。综合所得出的预测结果, 3种寡鬃实蝇从境外传入广东并在此定殖的风险可能性是实际存在的。Jackknife分析显示, 温度以及与此有关的环境因子对于3种实蝇在全球和局部地区的分布模式和分布情况都有极大的影响, 并需要进一步的研究。     

DNA barcodes for biosecurity: invasive species identification

Biosecurity encompasses protecting against any risk through 'biological harm', not least being the economic impact from the spread of pest insects. Molecular diagnostic tools provide valuable support for the rapid and accurate identification of morphologically indistinct alien species. However, these tools currently lack standardization. They are not conducive to adaptation by multiple sectors or countries, or to coping with changing pest priorities. The data presented here identifies DNA barcodes as a very promising opportunity to address this. DNA of tussock moth and fruit fly specimens intercepted at the New Zealand border over the last decade were reanalysed using the cox1 sequence barcode approach. Species identifications were compared with the historical dataset obtained by PCR-RFLP of nuclear rDNA. There was 90 and 96% agreement between the methods for these species, respectively. Improvements included previous tussock moth 'unknowns' being placed to family, genera or species and further resolution within fruit fly species complexes. The analyses highlight several advantages of DNA barcodes, especially their adaptability and predictive value. This approach is a realistic platform on which to build a much more flexible system, with the potential to be adopted globally for the rapid and accurate identification of invasive alien species.     

A novel preference for an invasive plant as a mechanism for animal hybrid speciation

Homoploid hybrid speciation--speciation via hybridization without a change in chromosome number--is rarely documented and poorly understood in animals. In particular, the mechanisms by which animal homoploid hybrid species become ecologically and reproductively isolated from their parents are hypothetical and remain largely untested by experiments. For the many host-specific parasites that mate on their host, choosing the right host is the most important ecological and reproductive barrier between these species. One example of a host-specific parasite is the Lonicera fly, a population of tephritid fruit flies that evolved within the last 250 years likely by hybridization between two native Rhagoletis species following a host shift to invasive honeysuckle. We studied the host preference of the Lonicera fly and its putative parent species in laboratory experiments. The Lonicera fly prefers its new host, introduced honeysuckle, over the hosts of both parental species, demonstrating the rapid acquisition of preference for a new host as a means of behavioral isolation from the parent species. The parent taxa discriminate against each other's native hosts, but both accept honeysuckle fruit, leaving the potential for asymmetric gene flow from the parent species. Importantly, this pattern allows us to formulate hypotheses about the initial formation of the Lonicera fly. As mating partners from the two parent taxa are more likely to meet on invasive honeysuckle than on their respective native hosts, independent acceptance of honeysuckle by both parents likely preceded hybridization. We propose that invasive honeysuckle served as a catalyst for the local breakdown of reproductive isolation between the native parent species, a novel consequence of the introduction of an exotic weed. We describe behavioral mechanisms that explain the initial hybridization and subsequent reproductive isolation of the hybrid Lonicera fly. These results provide experimental support for a combination of host shift and hybridization as a model for hybrid speciation in parasitic animals.     

A real‐time PCR toolbox for accurate identification of invasive fruit fly species

Significant plant pests such as fruit flies that travel with fresh produce between countries as eggs or larvae pose a great economic threat to the agriculture and fruit industry worldwide. Time‐limited and expensive quarantine decisions require accurate identification of such pests. Immature stages are often impossible to identify, making them a serious concern for biosecurity agencies. Use of COI barcoding PCR, often the only molecular identification resource, is time‐consuming. We assess the suitability of the COI barcoding region for real‐time PCR assays to identify four pest fruit fly species (Family: Tephritidae), in a diagnostic framework. These species, namely Mediterranean fruit fly (Ceratitis capitata), Queensland fruit fly (Bactrocera tryoni), African invader fly (Bactrocera invadens) and Island fly (Dirioxa pornia) each provide a different set of genetic species delimitation problems. We discuss the benefits and limitations of using a single‐gene TaqMan^? real‐time approach for such species. Our results indicate that COI‐based TaqMan^? real‐time PCR assays, in particular for genetically distinct species, provide an accurate, sensitive and rapid diagnostic tool.     

Screening mitochondrial DNA sequence variation as an alternative method for tracking established and outbreak populations of Queensland fruit fly at the species southern range limit

Understanding the relationship between incursions of insect pests and established populations is critical to implementing effective control. Studies of genetic variation can provide powerful tools to examine potential invasion pathways and longevity of individual pest outbreaks. The major fruit fly pest in eastern Australia, Queensland fruit fly Bactrocera tryoni (Froggatt), has been subject to significant long‐term quarantine and population reduction control measures in the major horticulture production areas of southeastern Australia, at the species southern range limit. Previous studies have employed microsatellite markers to estimate gene flow between populations across this region. In this study, we used an independent genetic marker, mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences, to screen genetic variation in established and adjacent outbreak populations in southeastern Australia. During the study period, favorable environmental conditions resulted in multiple outbreaks, which appeared genetically distinctive and relatively geographically localized, implying minimal dispersal between simultaneous outbreaks. Populations in established regions were found to occur over much larger areas. Screening mtDNA (female) lineages proved to be an effective alternative genetic tool to assist in understanding fruit fly population dynamics and provide another possible molecular method that could now be employed for better understanding of the ecology and evolution of this and other pest species.     

Ecological niches and potential geographical distributions of Mediterranean fruit fly (Ceratitis capitata) and Natal fruit fly (Ceratitis rosa)

Aim To predict and compare potential geographical distributions of the Mediterranean fruit fly (Ceratitis capitata) and Natal fruit fly (Ceratitis rosa). Location Africa, southern Europe, and worldwide. Methods Two correlative ecological niche modelling techniques, genetic algorithm for rule‐set prediction (GARP) and a technique based on principal components analysis (PCA), were used to predict distributions of the two fly species using distribution records and a set of environmental predictor variables. Results The two species appear to have broadly similar potential ranges in Africa and southern Europe, with much of sub‐Saharan Africa and Madagascar predicted as highly suitable. The drier regions of Africa (central and western regions of southern Africa and Sahelian zone) were identified as being less suitable for C. rosa than for C. capitata. Overall, the proportion of the region predicted to be highly suitable is larger for C. capitata than for C. rosa under both techniques, suggesting that C. capitata may be tolerant of a wider range of climatic conditions than C. rosa. Worldwide, tropical and subtropical regions are highlighted as highly suitable for both species. Differences in overlap of predictions from the two models for these species were observed. An evaluation using independent records from the adventive range for C. capitata and comparison with other predictions suggest that GARP models offer more accurate predictions than PCA models. Main conclusions This study suggests that these species have broadly similar potential distributions worldwide (based on climate), although the potential distribution appears to be broader for C. capitata than for C. rosa. Ceratitis capitata has become invasive throughout the world, whereas C. rosa has not, despite both species having broadly similar potential distributions. Further research into the biology of these species and their ability to overcome barriers is necessary to explain this difference, and to better understand invasion risk.     

The oriental fruit fly, Bactrocera dorsalis, in China: origin and gradual inland range expansion associated with population growth

The oriental fruit fly, Bactrocera dorsalis, expanded throughout mainland China in the last century to become one of the most serious pests in the area, yet information on this process are fragmentary. Three mitochondrial genes (nad1, cytb and nad5) were used to infer the genetic diversity, population structure and demographic history of the oriental fruit fly from its entire distribution range in China. High levels of genetic diversity, as well as a significant correspondence between genetic and geographic distances, suggest that the invasion process might have been gradual, with no associated genetic bottlenecks. Three population groups could be identified, nevertheless the overall genetic structure was weak. The effective number of migrants between populations, estimated using the coalescent method, suggested asymmetric gene flow from the costal region of Guangdong to most inland regions. The demographic analysis indicates the oriental fruit fly underwent a recent population expansion in the Central China. We suggest the species originated in the costal region facing the South China Sea and gradually expanded to colonize mainland China, expanding here to high population numbers.     

The current and future potential geographical distribution of the oriental fruit fly, Bactrocera dorsalis (Diptera: Tephritidae)

The oriental fruit fly, Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel), is a major pest throughout South East Asia and in a number of Pacific Islands. As a result of their widespread distribution, pest status, invasive ability and potential impact on market access, B. dorsalis and many other fruit fly species are considered major threats to many countries. CLIMEX was used to model the potential global distribution of B. dorsalis under current and future climate scenarios. Under current climatic conditions, its projected potential distribution includes much of the tropics and subtropics and extends into warm temperate areas such as southern Mediterranean Europe. The model projects optimal climatic conditions for B. dorsalis in the south-eastern USA, where the principle range-limiting factor is likely to be cold stress. As a result of climate change, the potential global range for B. dorsalis is projected to extend further polewards as cold stress boundaries recede. However, the potential range contracts in areas where precipitation is projected to decrease substantially. The significant increases in the potential distribution of B. dorsalis projected under the climate change scenarios suggest that the World Trade Organization should allow biosecurity authorities to consider the effects of climate change when undertaking pest risk assessments. One of the most significant areas of uncertainty in climate change concerns the greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Results are provided that span the range of standard Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios. The impact on the projected distribution of B. dorsalis is striking, but affects the relative abundance of the fly within the total suitable range more than the total area of climatically suitable habitat.     

Predicting plant invasiveness from native range size: clues from the Kashmir Himalaya

Aims In view of the growing interest in modelling the potential spread of invasive species, prediction of plant invasiveness on the basis of native range size holds considerable promise. Our objective was to use a simple model to evaluate whether a wider native range predisposes plant species to become invasive in non-native regions and to easily identify potential invaders on this basis. The Kashmir Himalayan alien flora, of which a large proportion is native to Europe, was used to test this model.Methods The Kashmir Himalayan alien flora comprises 436 species of vascular plants at different stages of invasion. We focussed on plant species at two critical invasion stages (sensu Colautti and MacIsaac 2004), i.e. Stage II (species that are just at the earliest phase of introduction) and Stage V (species that are widespread and dominant in the invaded region and are thus considered invasive). We used the territorial distribution in Europe (number of countries) as a surrogate for the native range size of plants of European origin.Important findings Using a subset of 88 species, for which information on the native European range was available, we showed that a large proportion (68%) of Stage II species growing in the Kashmir Valley had a relatively restricted European range (present in ≤20 countries); on the other hand, 77% of Stage V species had an extensive native range (present in>20 countries). We consequently hypothesized that 14 Kashmir Himalayan Stage II species of European origin that are distributed in>20 European countries are at risk of becoming future invaders in Kashmir. On the other hand, those Kashmir Himalayan Stage II species of European origin distributed in ≤20 European countries are less likely to become invasive. Although this analysis is quite simple, the data suggest that a wider native range is a good predictor of plant invasiveness and could be used as a simple and low-cost early warning tool in predicting potential invasive species.     

Comparative demography of a specialist and generalist fruit fly: Implications for host use and pest management

Host plants used by phytophagous insects can have significant consequences on demography parameters, overall lifetime fitness and their subsequent population dynamics. Here, we conduct a comparative demographic study between the specialist Zeugodacus cucumis (French) and generalist Bactrocera tryoni (Froggatt) (Diptera: Tephritidae) to determine whether the host plants used by these fly species play any role in their overall lifetime fitness and explains current host use patterns. These two fly species are pests within the north-eastern region of Australia and we further aimed to use complete life-history data to determine the population parameters and models that would help identify the sensitive life-history stage that could be targeted for effective field management. Eggs collected from laboratory-reared flies were inoculated into organically grown fruits of both the primary and alternate host plant cultivars of both fly species. The proportion surviving each life stage from egg through to adult and fecundity were monitored for all cohorts from the different plant cultivars. Complete stage-base life-tables for cohorts of each fly species developing from each fruit cultivar were constructed, and the key demographic parameters and population models were analysed using PopTools matrix model programme. Our results showed that the host used by each fly species had significant consequences on fly demographic parameters and hence their overall lifetime fitness. The generalist B. tryoni was able to compensate for the fitness loss experienced at the pre-adult stage by having adults with higher fecundity, but this was not the case for the specialist Z. cucumis. Stage-base population models revealed that the population growth rate of both species was highly sensitive at the adult reproductive stage, indicating that manipulating probability of survival at this life stage would effectively manage populations of these pest species. This study provides the empirical evidence of undertaking complete life history demography studies of phytophagous insects to accurately understand their lifetime fitness consequences of using a certain host, their observed host use patterns, and overall population dynamics. We suggest that any efforts to manage dacine fruit fly pest population should consider life-history consequences of host use.     

Sequential invasions by fruit flies (Diptera: Tephritidae) in Pacific and Indian Ocean islands: A systematic review

The aim of our review was to examine the cases of Tephritidae invasions across island systems in order to determine whether they follow a hierarchical mode of invasion. We reviewed the literature on factors and mechanisms driving invasion sequences in Pacific and Southwest Indian Ocean islands and gathered every record of invasion by a polyphagous tephritid in island groups. From invasion date or period, we defined an invasion link when a new fruit fly established on an island where another polyphagous tephritid is already resident (that was indigenous or a previous invader). Across surveyed islands, we documented 67 invasion links, involving 24 tephritid species. All invasion links were directional, i.e., they involved a series of invasions by invaders that were closely related to a resident species but were increasingly more competitive. These sequential establishments of species are driven by interspecific competition between resident and exotic species but are also influenced by history, routes, and flows of commercial exchanges and the bridgehead effect. This information should be used to improve biosecurity measures. Interactions between trade flow, invasive routes, and the presence of invasive and resident species should be integrated into large‐scale studies.     

Uncovering the tracks of a recent and rapid invasion: the case of the fruit fly pest Bactrocera invadens (Diptera: Tephritidae) in Africa

Phytophagous insects of the genus Bactrocera are among the most economically important invasive fruit fly pests. In 2003, an unknown Bactrocera species was found in Kenya. First identified as an ‘aberrant form’ of the Asian B. dorsalis complex, it was later recognized as a new species, Bactrocera invadens. Within 2 years of its discovery, the species was recorded in several African countries, becoming an important quarantine pest. As this invasive fly was discovered only recently, no data are available on its invasion pattern in Africa. This pilot study attempts to infer from genetic data the dynamic aspects of the African invasion of this pest. Using microsatellite markers, we evaluated the level of genetic diversity and the extent of common ancestry among several African populations collected across the invaded areas. A sample from the Asian Sri Lankan population was analysed to confirm the Asian origin of this pest. Genetic data cast no doubt that Sri Lanka belongs to the native range, but only a small percentage of its genotypes can be found in Africa. African populations display relatively high levels of genetic diversity associated with limited geographical structure and no genetic footprints of bottlenecks. These features are indicative of processes of rapid population growth and expansion with possible multiple introductions. In the span of relatively few years, the African invasion registered the presence of at least two uncorrelated outbreaks, both starting from the East. The results of the analyses support that invasion started in East Africa, where B. invadens was initially isolated.     

Invasion genetics of American cherry fruit fly in Europe and signals of hybridization with the European cherry fruit fly

The American cherry fruit fly is an invasive pest species in Europe, of serious concern in tart cherry production as well as for the potential to hybridize with the European cherry fruit fly, Rhagoletis cerasi L. (Diptera: Tephritidae), which might induce new pest dynamics. In the first European reports, the question arose whether only the eastern American cherry fruit fly, Rhagoletis cingulata (Loew) (Diptera: Tephritidae), is present, or also the closely related western American cherry fruit fly, Rhagoletis indifferens Curran. In this study, we investigate the species status of European populations by comparing these with populations of both American species from their native ranges, the invasion dynamics in German (first report in 1993) and Hungarian (first report in 2006) populations, and we test for signals of hybridization with the European cherry fruit fly. Although mtDNA sequence genealogy could not separate the two American species, cross‐species amplification of 14 microsatellite loci separated them with high probabilities (0.99–1.0) and provided evidence for R. cingulata in Europe. German and Hungarian R. cingulata populations differed significantly in microsatellite allele frequencies, mtDNA haplotype and wing pattern distributions, and both were genetically depauperate relative to North American populations. The diversity suggests independent founding events in Germany and Hungary. Within each country, R. cingulata displayed little or no structure in any trait, which agrees with rapid local range expansions. In cross‐species amplifications, signals of hybridization between R. cerasi and R. cingulata were found in 2% of R. cingulata individuals and in 3% of R. cerasi. All putative hybrids had R. cerasi mtDNA indicating that the original between‐species mating involved R. cerasi females and R. cingulata males.     

Is the alpine divide becoming more permeable to biological invasions? - Insights on the invasion and establishment of the Walnut Husk Fly, Rhagoletis completa (Diptera: Tephritidae) in Switzerland

The Walnut Husk Fly, Rhagoletis completa Cresson (Diptera: Tephritidae), is native to North America (Midwestern US and north-eastern Mexico) and has invaded several European countries in the past decades by likely crossing the alpine divide separating most parts of Switzerland from Italy. Here, we determined its current distribution in Switzerland by sampling walnuts (Juglans regia L.) in ecologically and climatically distinct regions along potential invasion corridors. R. completa was found to be firmly established in most low altitude areas of Switzerland where walnuts thrive, but notably not a single parasitoid was recovered from any of the samples. Infested fruit was recovered in 42 of the 71 localities that were surveyed, with mean fruit infestation rate varying greatly among sites. The incidence of R. completa in Switzerland is closely related to meteorological mean spring temperature patterns influencing growing season length, but not to winter temperatures, reflecting survival potential during hibernation. Importantly, areas in which the fly is absent correspond with localities where the mean spring temperatures fall below 7°C. Historical data records show that the natural cold barrier around the Alpine divide in the central Swiss Alps corresponding to such minimal temperatures has shrunk significantly from a width of more than 40 km before 1990 to around 20 km after 2000. We hypothesize on possible invasion/expansion routes along alpine valleys, dwell on distribution patterns in relation to climate, and outline future research needs as the incursion of R. completa into Switzerland; and, more recently, other European countries, such as Germany, Austria, France and Slovenia, represent an example of alien species that settle first in the Mediterranean Basin and from there become invasive by crossing the Alps.     

Prediction of global distribution of insect pest species in relation to climate by using an ecological informatics method

The aim of this work was to predict the worldwide distribution of two pest species-Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann), the Mediterranean fruit fly, and Lymantria dispar (L.), the gypsy moth-based on climatic factors. The distribution patterns of insect pests have most often been investigated using classical statistical models or ecoclimatic assessment models such as CLIMEX. In this study, we used an artificial neural network, the multilayer perceptron, trained using the backpropagation algorithm, to model the distribution of each species. The data matrix used to model the distribution of each species was divided into three data sets to (1) develop and train the model, (2) validate the model and prevent over-fitting, and (3) test each model on novel data. The percentage of correct predictions of the global distribution of each species was high for Mediterranean fruit fly for the three data sets giving 95.8, 81.5, and 80.6% correct predictions, respectively, and 96.8, 84.3, and 81.5 for the gypsy moth. Kappa statistics used to test the level of significance of the results were highly significant (in all cases P < 0.0001). A sensitivity analysis applied to each model based on the calculation of the derivatives of each of a large number of input variables showed that the variables that contributed most to explaining the distribution of C. capitata were annual average temperature and annual potential evapotranspiration. For L. dispar, the average minimum temperature and minimum daylength range were the main explanatory variables. The ANN models and methods developed in this study offer powerful additional predictive approaches in invasive species research.     

Host status of Vaccinium reticulatum (Ericaceae) to invasive tephritid fruit flies in Hawaii

Ohelo (Vaccicinium reticulatum Small) (Ericaceae) is a native Hawaiian plant that has commercial potential in Hawaii as a nursery crop to be transplanted for berry production or for sale as a potted ornamental. No-choice infestation studies were conducted to determine whether ohelo fruit are hosts for four invasive tephritid fruit fly species. Ohelo berries were exposed to gravid female flies ofBactrocera dorsalis Hendel (oriental fruit fly), Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann) (Mediterranean fruit fly), Bactrocera cucurbitae Coquillet (melon fly),or Bactrocera latifrons (Hendel) in screen cages outdoors for 24 h and then held on sand in the laboratory for 2 wk for pupal development and adult emergence. Only B. dorsalis successfully attacked and developed in ohelo berries. In total, 1570 berries produced 10 puparia, all of which emerged as adults, for a fruit infestation rate of 0.0064% and an average of 0.0053 puparia per gram of fruit. By comparison, papaya fruit used as controls produced an average of 1.44 B. dorsalis puparia per g of fruit. Ohelo berry is a marginal host for B. dorsalis and apparently a nonhost for C. capitata, B. cucurbitae, and B. latifrons. Commercial plantings of ohelo will rarely be attacked by fruit flies in Hawaii.     

Predicted decrease in global climate suitability masks regional complexity of invasive fruit fly species response to climate change

Climate change affects the rate of insect invasions as well as the abundance, distribution and impacts of such invasions on a global scale. Among the principal analytical approaches to predicting and understanding future impacts of biological invasions are Species Distribution Models (SDMs), typically in the form of correlative Ecological Niche Models (ENMs). An underlying assumption of ENMs is that species–environment relationships remain preserved during extrapolations in space and time, although this is widely criticised. The semi-mechanistic modelling platform, CLIMEX, employs a top-down approach using species ecophysiological traits and is able to avoid some of the issues of extrapolation, making it highly applicable to investigating biological invasions in the context of climate change. The tephritid fruit flies (Diptera: Tephritidae) comprise some of the most successful invasive species and serious economic pests around the world. Here we project 12 tephritid species CLIMEX models into future climate scenarios to examine overall patterns of climate suitability and forecast potential distributional changes for this group. We further compare the aggregate response of the group against species-specific responses. We then consider additional drivers of biological invasions to examine how invasion potential is influenced by climate, fruit production and trade indices. Considering the group of tephritid species examined here, climate change is predicted to decrease global climate suitability and to shift the cumulative distribution poleward. However, when examining species-level patterns, the predominant directionality of range shifts for 11 of the 12 species is eastward. Most notably, management will need to consider regional changes in fruit fly species invasion potential where high fruit production, trade indices and predicted distributions of these flies overlap.