Predicting global habitat suitability for stony corals on seamounts

Aim Globally, species distribution patterns in the deep sea are poorly resolved, with spatial coverage being sparse for most taxa and true absence data missing. Increasing human impacts on deep‐sea ecosystems mean that reaching a better understanding of such patterns is becoming more urgent. Cold‐water stony corals (Order Scleractinia) form structurally complex habitats (dense thickets or reefs) that can support a diversity of other associated fauna. Despite their widely accepted ecological importance, records of scleractinian corals on seamounts are patchy and simply not available for most of the global ocean. The objective of this paper is to model the global distribution of suitable habitat for stony corals on seamounts. Location Seamounts worldwide. Methods We compiled a database containing all accessible records of scleractinian corals on seamounts. Two modelling approaches developed for presence‐only data were used to predict global habitat suitability for seamount scleractinians: maximum entropy modelling (Maxent) and environmental niche factor analysis (ENFA). We generated habitat‐suitability maps and used a cross‐validation process with a threshold‐independent metric to evaluate the performance of the models. Results Both models performed well in cross‐validation, although the Maxent method consistently outperformed ENFA. Highly suitable habitat for seamount stony corals was predicted to occur at most modelled depths in the North Atlantic, and in a circumglobal strip in the Southern Hemisphere between 20° and 50° S and shallower than around 1500 m. Seamount summits in most other regions appeared much less likely to provide suitable habitat, except for small near‐surface patches. The patterns of habitat suitability largely reflect current biogeographical knowledge. Environmental variables positively associated with high predicted habitat suitability included the aragonite saturation state, and oxygen saturation and concentration. By contrast, low levels of dissolved inorganic carbon, nitrate, phosphate and silicate were associated with high predicted suitability. High correlation among variables made assessing individual drivers difficult. Main conclusions Our models predict environmental conditions likely to play a role in determining large‐scale scleractinian coral distributions on seamounts, and provide a baseline scenario on a global scale. These results present a first‐order hypothesis that can be tested by further sampling. Given the high vulnerability of cold‐water corals to human impacts, such predictions are crucial tools in developing worldwide conservation and management strategies for seamount ecosystems.     

Use of predictive habitat modelling to assess the distribution and extent of the current protection of ‘listed’ deep‐sea habitats

Aim

To demonstrate the application of predictive species distribution modelling methods to habitat mapping and assessment of percentage area‐based conservation targets.

Location

The NE Atlantic deep sea (UK and Irish extended continental shelf limits).

Methods

MaxEnt modelling of three listed habitats (Lophelia pertusa (Linnaeus, 1758) reef (LpReef), Pheronema carpenteri (WyvilleThomson, 1869) aggregations (PcAggs) and Syringammina fragilissima (Brady, 1883) aggregations (SfAggs)), with some pre‐selection of variables by generalized additive modelling. Models are validated using repeated 70/30 build/test data splits using AUC and threshold‐dependent assessment methods. Predicted distribution maps are used to assess the adequacy of existing area closures for the protection of listed habitats and to assess percentage representation of each community within existing MPA networks.

Results

Model performances are rated as fair (LpReef), excellent (PcAggs) and good (SfAggs). Current closures are focused on the protection of cold‐water coral reef and incidentally capture some SfAggs suitable environments, but largely fail to protect PcAggs. Considering the wider network of MPAs in the study region, approximately 23% (LpReef), 2% (PcAggs) and 6% (SfAggs) of the area predicted as suitable for each habitat respectively is contained within an MPA.

Main conclusions

To date, decisions on area closures for the protection of ‘listed’ deep‐sea habitats have been based on maps of recorded presence of species that are taken as being indicative of that habitat. Predictive habitat modelling may provide a useful method of better estimating the extent of listed habitats, providing direction for future MPA establishment and a means of assessing MPA network effectiveness against politically set percentage targets. Given the coarse resolution of the model, percentages should be taken as maximal figures, with habitat occurrence likely to be less prevalent in reality.

     

In search of relevant predictors for marine species distribution modelling using the MarineSPEED benchmark dataset

Aim

Ideally, datasets for species distribution modelling (SDM) contain evenly sampled records covering the entire distribution of the species, confirmed absences and auxiliary ecophysiological data allowing informed decisions on relevant predictors. Unfortunately, these criteria are rarely met for marine organisms for which distributions are too often only scantly characterized and absences generally not recorded. Here, we investigate predictor relevance as a function of modelling algorithms and settings for a global dataset of marine species.

Location

Global marine.

Methods

We selected well‐studied and identifiable species from all major marine taxonomic groups. Distribution records were compiled from public sources (e.g., OBIS, GBIF, Reef Life Survey) and linked to environmental data from Bio‐ORACLE and MARSPEC. Using this dataset, predictor relevance was analysed under different variations of modelling algorithms, numbers of predictor variables, cross‐validation strategies, sampling bias mitigation methods, evaluation methods and ranking methods. SDMs for all combinations of predictors from eight correlation groups were fitted and ranked, from which the top five predictors were selected as the most relevant.

Results

We collected two million distribution records from 514 species across 18 phyla. Mean sea surface temperature and calcite are, respectively, the most relevant and irrelevant predictors. A less clear pattern was derived from the other predictors. The biggest differences in predictor relevance were induced by varying the number of predictors, the modelling algorithm and the sample selection bias correction. The distribution data and associated environmental data are made available through the R package marinespeed and at http://marinespeed.org .

Main conclusions

While temperature is a relevant predictor of global marine species distributions, considerable variation in predictor relevance is linked to the SDM set‐up. We promote the usage of a standardized benchmark dataset (MarineSPEED) for methodological SDM studies.

     

The Melithaeidae (Cnidaria: Octocorallia) of the Ryukyu Archipelago: molecular and morphological examinations

The family Melithaeidae (Octocorallia: Alcyonacea) is distributed in the West Pacific, Indian Ocean and the Red Sea. They are most abundant in warmer waters but can also be found in temperate waters. At present six genera are assigned to this family (Melithaea, Mopsella, Clathraria, Acabaria, Wrightella and Asperaxis), however overlapping characteristics make this group's taxonomic identification difficult and their relationships unclear. There are only a few reports from the Ryukyu Archipelago in southern Japan of melithaeids and most other octocorals, despite the islands being an area of high octocoral diversity. To help resolve the taxonomic confusion in this family, samples from various Ryukyu Archipelago locations were collected and DNA sequences of nuclear 28S ribosomal DNA and mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase I (COI) were obtained. Additionally, SEM micrographs of the sclerites of specimens were taken to further confirm the molecular results. Three strongly supported clades were recovered from the COI and 28S rDNA analyses, corresponding to Melithaea, Acabaria, and Mopsella, and in most cases clades were clearly related with the sclerite shape reported for each genus. These results show clearly that molecular differences are present between the three genera, and also demonstrates the strong need of other molecular markers for resolving intra-generic phylogenies. Our results provide baseline data for future studies of this octocoral family, not only on taxonomy, but also with regards to their distribution in the Ryukyu Islands.     

Modelling the distribution of a threatened habitat: the California sage scrub

Aim Using predictive species distribution and ecological niche modelling our objectives are: (1) to identify important climatic drivers of distribution at regional scales of a locally complex and dynamic system – California sage scrub; (2) to map suitable sage scrub habitat in California; and (3) to distinguish between bioclimatic niches of floristic groups within sage scrub to assess the conservation significance of analysing such species groups. Location Coastal mediterranean‐type shrublands of southern and central California. Methods Using point localities from georeferenced herbarium records, we modelled the potential distribution and bioclimatic envelopes of 14 characteristic sage scrub species and three floristic groups (south‐coastal, coastal–interior disjunct and broadly distributed species) based upon current climate conditions. Maxent was used to map climatically suitable habitat, while principal components analysis followed by canonical discriminant analysis were used to distinguish between floristic groups and visualize species and group distributions in multivariate ecological space. Results Geographical distribution patterns of individual species were mirrored in the habitat suitability maps of floristic groups, notably the disjunct distribution of the coastal–interior species. Overlap in the distributions of floristic groups was evident in both geographical and multivariate niche space; however, discriminant analysis confirmed the separability of floristic groups based on bioclimatic variables. Higher performance of floristic group models compared with sage scrub as a whole suggests that groups have differing climate requirements for habitat suitability at regional scales and that breaking sage scrub into floristic groups improves the discrimination between climatically suitable and unsuitable habitat. Main conclusions The finding that presence‐only data and climatic variables can produce useful information on habitat suitability of California sage scrub species and floristic groups at a regional scale has important implications for ongoing efforts of habitat restoration for sage scrub. In addition, modelling at a group level provides important information about the differences in climatic niches within California sage scrub. Finally, the high performance of our floristic group models highlights the potential a community‐level modelling approach holds for investigating plant distribution patterns.     

Predicting current and future global distributions of whale sharks

The Vulnerable (IUCN) whale shark spans warm and temperate waters around the globe. However, their present‐day and possible future global distribution has never been predicted. Using 30 years (1980–2010) of whale shark observations recorded by tuna purse‐seiners fishing in the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Oceans, we applied generalized linear mixed‐effects models to test the hypothesis that similar environmental covariates predict whale shark occurrence in all major ocean basins. We derived global predictors from satellite images for chlorophyll a and sea surface temperature, and bathymetric charts for depth, bottom slope and distance to shore. We randomly generated pseudo‐absences within the area covered by the fisheries, and included fishing effort as an offset to account for potential sampling bias. We predicted sea surface temperatures for 2070 using an ensemble of five global circulation models under a no climate‐policy reference scenario, and used these to predict changes in distribution. The full model (excluding standard deviation of sea surface temperature) had the highest relative statistical support (wAIC_c = 0.99) and explained ca. 60% of the deviance. Habitat suitability was mainly driven by spatial variation in bathymetry and sea surface temperature among oceans, although these effects differed slightly among oceans. Predicted changes in sea surface temperature resulted in a slight shift of suitable habitat towards the poles in both the Atlantic and Indian Oceans (ca. 5°N and 3–8°S, respectively) accompanied by an overall range contraction (2.5–7.4% and 1.1–6.3%, respectively). Predicted changes in the Pacific Ocean were small. Assuming that whale shark environmental requirements and human disturbances (i.e. no stabilization of greenhouse gas emissions) remain similar, we show that warming sea surface temperatures might promote a net retreat from current aggregation areas and an overall redistribution of the species.     

Fine scale waterbody data improve prediction of waterbird occurrence despite coarse species data

While modelling habitat suitability and species distribution, ecologists must deal with issues related to the spatial resolution of species occurrence and environmental data. Indeed, given that the spatial resolution of species and environmental datasets range from centimeters to hundreds of kilometers, it underlines the importance of choosing the optimal combination of resolutions to achieve the highest possible modelling prediction accuracy. We evaluated how the spatial resolution of land cover/waterbody datasets (meters to 1 km) affect waterbird habitat suitability models based on atlas data (grid cell of 12 × 11 km). We hypothesized that the area, perimeter and number of waterbodies computed from high resolution datasets would explain distributions of waterbirds better because coarse resolution datasets omit small waterbodies affecting species occurrence. Specifically, we investigated which spatial resolution of waterbodies better explain the distribution of seven waterbirds nesting on ponds/lakes with areas ranging from 0.1 ha to hundreds of hectares. Our results show that the area and perimeter of waterbodies derived from high resolution datasets (raster data with 30 m resolution, vector data corresponding with map scale 1:10 000) explain the distribution of the waterbirds better than those calculated using less accurate datasets despite the coarse grain of the species data. Taking into account the spatial extent (global vs regional) of the datasets, we found the Global Inland Waterbody Dataset to be the most suitable for modelling distribution of waterbirds. In general, we recommend using land cover data of a resolution sufficient to capture the smallest patches of the habitat suitable for a given species’ presence for both fine and coarse grain habitat suitability and distribution modelling.     

Fauna habitat modelling and mapping: A review and case study in the Lower Hunter Central Coast region of NSW

Abstract Habitat models are now broadly used in conservation planning on public lands. If implemented correctly, habitat modelling is a transparent and repeatable technique for describing and mapping biodiversity values, and its application in peri‐urban and agricultural landscape planning is likely to expand rapidly. Conservation planning in such landscapes must be robust to the scrutiny that arises when biodiversity constraints are placed on developers and private landholders. A standardized modelling and model evaluation method based on widely accepted techniques will improve the robustness of conservation plans. We review current habitat modelling and model evaluation methods and provide a habitat modelling case study in the New South Wales central coast region that we hope will serve as a methodological template for conservation planners. We make recommendations on modelling methods that are appropriate when presence‐absence and presence‐only survey data are available and provide methodological details and a website with data and training material for modellers. Our aim is to provide practical guidelines that preserve methodological rigour and result in defendable habitat models and maps. The case study was undertaken in a rapidly developing area with substantial biodiversity values under urbanization pressure. Habitat maps for seven priority fauna species were developed using logistic regression models of species‐habitat relationships and a bootstrapping methodology was used to evaluate model predictions. The modelled species were the koala, tiger quoll, squirrel glider, yellow‐bellied glider, masked owl, powerful owl and sooty owl. Models ranked sites adequately in terms of habitat suitability and provided predictions of sufficient reliability for the purpose of identifying preliminary conservation priority areas. However, they are subject to multiple uncertainties and should not be viewed as a completely accurate representation of the distribution of species habitat. We recommend the use of model prediction in an adaptive framework whereby models are iteratively updated and refined as new data become available.     

Environmental filtering and neutral processes shape octocoral community assembly in the deep sea

The ecological and evolutionary processes that interact to shape community structure are poorly studied in the largest environment on earth, the deep sea. Phylogenetic data and morphological traits of octocorals were coupled with environmental factors to test hypotheses of community assembly in the deep (250–2500 m) Gulf of Mexico. We found lineage turnover at a depth of 800–1200 m, with isidids and chrysogorgiids at deeper depths and a diversity of species from across the phylogeny occupying shallower depths. Traits, including axis type, polyp shape, and polyp retraction, differed among species occupying the shallowest (250–800 m) and deepest (1200–2500 m) depths. Results also indicated that octocoral species sort along an environmental gradient of depth. Closely related octocoral species sorted into different depth strata on the upper to middle slope, likely due to barriers imposed by water masses followed by adaptive divergence. Within any given depth zone down to 2000 m, the phylogenetic relatedness of co-existing octocorals was random, indicating that stochastic processes, such as recruitment, also shape community structure. At depths >2000 m, octocorals were more closely related than expected by chance due to the diversification of chrysogorgiids and isidids, which retain conserved traits that impart survival at deeper and/or colder depths. Polyp density, size, and inter-polyp distance were significantly correlated with depth, particularly in plexaurids and isidids, highlighting trait lability across depth and supporting that environmental gradients influence octocoral morphology. Our community phylogenetics approach indicates that both environmental filtering and neutral processes shape community assembly in the deep sea.     

A molecular phylogenetic analysis of the Octocorallia (Cnidaria: Anthozoa) based on mitochondrial protein-coding sequences

Despite their abundance and ecological importance in a wide variety of shallow and deep water marine communities, octocorals (soft corals, sea fans, and sea pens) are a group whose taxonomy and phylogenetic relationships remain poorly known and little studied. The group is currently divided into three orders (O: Alcyonacea, Pennatulacea, and Helioporacea); the large O. Alcyonacea (soft corals and sea fans) is further subdivided into six sub-ordinal groups on the basis of skeletal composition and colony growth form. We used 1429bp of two mitochondrial protein-coding genes, ND2 and msh1, to construct a phylogeny for 103 octocoral genera representing 28 families. In agreement with a previous 18S rDNA phylogeny, our results support a division of Octocorallia into two major clades plus a third, minor clade. We found one large clade (Holaxonia-Alcyoniina) comprising the sea fan sub-order Holaxonia and the majority of soft corals, and a second clade (Calcaxonia-Pennatulacea) comprising sea pens (O. Pennatulacea) and the sea fan sub-order Calcaxonia. Taxa belonging to the sea fan group Scleraxonia and the soft coral family Alcyoniidae were divided among the Holaxonia-Alcyoniina clade and a third, small clade (Anthomastus-Corallium) whose relationship to the two major clades was unresolved. In contrast to the previous studies, we found sea pens to be monophyletic but nested within Calcaxonia; our analyses support the sea fan family Ellisellidae as the sister taxon to the sea pens. We are unable to reject the hypothesis that the calcaxonian and holaxonian skeletal axes each arose once and suggest that the skeletal axis of sea pens is derived from that of Calcaxonia. Topology tests rejected the monophyly of sub-ordinal groups Alcyoniina, Scleraxonia, and Stolonifera, as well as 9 of 14 families for which we sampled multiple genera. The much broader taxon sampling and better phylogenetic resolution afforded by our study relative to the previous efforts greatly clarify the relationships among families and sub-ordinal groups within each of the major clades. The failure of these mitochondrial genes as well as previous 18S rDNA studies to resolve many of the deeper nodes within the tree (including its root) suggest that octocorals underwent a rapid radiation and that large amounts of sequence data will be required in order to resolve the basal relationships within the clade.     

Elevated feeding rates of fishes within octocoral canopies on Caribbean reefs

Increasing abundance of arborescent octocorals (often referred to as gorgonians) on Caribbean reefs raises the question of whether habitat structure provided by octocorals can mediate a transition between coral- and algal- dominated states by increasing fish abundance and herbivory. This study tested the hypotheses that feeding rates and densities of demersal reef fishes are affected by the habitat structure provided by dense octocoral communities. Surveys of fishes on coral reefs in St John, US Virgin Islands, found 1.7-fold higher densities, and 2.4-fold higher feeding rates within versus outside of dense octocoral canopies. This difference, however, was only seen at sites with octocoral densities > 8 colonies m⁻². Furthemore, the proximity of octocoral colonies to fish had an effect on the grazing rate of key herbivores (surgeonfishes and parrotfishes), with a 53% higher feeding rate (1.90 ± 0.11 bites min⁻¹ m⁻²) near octocorals (< 20 or 30 cm, depending on the site) versus farther from them (1.24 ± 0.09 bites min⁻¹ m⁻²). Finally, within the canopy of dense octocoral communities (17 colonies m⁻²), reef fishes fed at a rate that was 2.2-fold higher within the community than at the edge of the community that faced an adjacent sand patch. Fish abundance, however, was not uniformly higher within versus at the edge of the octocoral community, as ecotone specialists such as gobiids, blennioids, ostraciids, holocentrids, labrids, and pomacentrids were 1.3—2.3 times more abundant at the edge. In contrast, other taxa of demersal fishes, notably herbivores, were twice as abundant within octocoral communities than at the edges. Together, these results reveal an association between habitat structure created by octocorals on shallow reefs and increased feeding rates of demersal fishes (including those of herbivores). The potential of octocorals to increase herbivory that could mediate stony coral recovery is therefore worthy of further study.

     

Living quarters of a living fossil—Uncovering the current distribution pattern of the rediscovered Hula painted frog (Latonia nigriventer) using environmental DNA

One of the greatest challenges of effective conservation measures is the correct identification of sites where rare and elusive organisms reside. The recently rediscovered Hula painted frog (Latonia nigriventer) has not been seen for many decades and was therefore categorized extinct. Since its rediscovery in 2011, individuals from the critically endangered species have been found, with great effort, only in four restricted sites. We applied the environmental DNA (eDNA) approach to search for new populations of the Hula painted frog in suitable aquatic habitats. We further used the eDNA data to classify the landscape factors associated with the species distribution and to predict its suitable habitats. We sampled 52 aquatic sites in the Hula Valley during the spring of 2015 and 2016 and amplified the samples with a species‐specific qPCR assay. DNA of the Hula painted frog was detected in 22 of the sites, all of which clustered within three main areas. A boosting classification model showed that soil type, vegetation cover and the current and former habitats are all key predictors of the frog's current distribution. Intriguingly, the habitat suitability models reveal a high affinity of the species to its long‐lost habitat of the historical wetlands. Our findings encourage a series of informed searches for new populations of this threatened frog and provide guidance for future conservation management programmes. In the era of global conservation crisis of amphibians, developing the eDNA approach, a reliable detection method for many critically endangered and elusive amphibians, is of particular importance.     

Testing the utility of species distribution modelling using Random Forests for a species in decline

Habitat suitability estimates derived from species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to guide management of threatened species. Poorly estimating species’ ranges can lead to underestimation of threatened status, undervaluing of remaining habitat and misdirection of conservation funding. We aimed to evaluate the utility of a SDM, similar to the models used to inform government regulation of habitat in our study region, in estimating the contemporary distribution of a threatened and declining species. We developed a presence‐only SDM for the endangered New Holland Mouse (Pseudomys novaehollandiae) across Victoria, Australia. We conducted extensive camera trap surveys across model‐predicted and expert‐selected areas to generate an independent data set for use in evaluating the model, determining confidence in absence data from non‐detection sites with occupancy and detectability modelling. We assessed the predictive capacity of the model at thresholds based on (1) sum of sensitivity and specificity (SSS), and (2) the lowest presence threshold (LPT; i.e. the lowest non‐zero model‐predicted habitat suitability value at which we detected the species). We detected P. novaehollandiae at 40 of 472 surveyed sites, with strong support for the species’ probable absence from non‐detection sites. Based on our post hoc optimised SSS threshold of the SDM, 25% of our detection sites were falsely predicted as non‐suitable habitat and 75% of sites predicted as suitable habitat did not contain the species at the time of our survey. One occupied site had a model‐predicted suitability value of zero, and at the LPT, 88% of sites predicted as suitable habitat did not contain the species at the time of our survey. Our findings demonstrate that application of generic SDMs in both regulatory and investment contexts should be tempered by considering their limitations and currency. Further, we recommend engaging species experts in the extrapolation and application of SDM outputs.     

A modified view on octocorals: Heteroxenia fuscescens nematocysts are diverse, featuring both an ancestral and a novel type

Cnidarians are characterized by the presence of stinging cells containing nematocysts, a sophisticated injection system targeted mainly at prey-capture and defense. In the anthozoan subclass Octocorallia nematocytes have been considered to exist only in low numbers, to be small, and all of the ancestral atrichous-isorhiza type. This study, in contrast, revealed numerous nematocytes in the octocoral Heteroxenia fuscescens. The study demonstrates the applicability of cresyl-violet dye for differential staining and stimulating discharge of the nematocysts. In addition to the atrichous isorhiza-type of nematocysts, a novel type of macrobasic-mastigophore nematocysts was found, featuring a shaft, uniquely comprised of three loops and densely packed arrow-like spines. In contrast to the view that octocorals possess a single type of nematocyst, Heteroxenia fuscescens features two distinct types, indicating for the first time the diversification and complexity of nematocysts for Octocorallia.     

Habitat carrying capacity is reached for the European eel in a small coastal catchment: evidence and implications for managing eel stocks

1. Despite carrying capacity being one of the most important parameters in population management and modelling, we lack substantial evidence for habitat limitations on freshwater species. Here we tested the ideal free distribution (IFD) hypothesis using an indirect behaviour‐based method for small closed populations assuming that animals can effectively estimate habitat suitability and distribute themselves accordingly in time and space. 2. We analysed spatiotemporal variations in the density of the European eel Anguilla, a catadromous species with good colonisation abilities in a small coastal catchment in France. The general linear model used enabled us to test simultaneously the effect of temporal, macro‐ and meso‐scale habitat factors on the presence and abundance of eels at 30 sites over an 8‐year period. 3. Almost every site sampled had eels, whatever its location on the catchment and its habitat characteristics. Density estimates (overall mean ± SD of 0.40 ± 0.48 m^?2) were at the upper range of other values for European catchments. Moreover, eel densities were mainly influenced by the availability of suitable habitats (rocky substratum and instream cover), which suggests that their distribution reflects an IFD. 4. Despite marked variability in recruitment, the density of the oldest size‐class remained stable over the study, suggesting that density‐dependent mortality occurred, probably due to intraspecific competition for space and food and to predation. 5. These findings suggest that eel habitats are saturated in the Frémur. Therefore, we suggest that the mean abundance of eels observed could serve as a threshold value for other male‐dominated river stocks (provided they have a similar overall percentage of suitable habitats) that are common in small, low gradient streams on the north‐Atlantic coast of Europe.     

Current and future distribution of a parasite with complex life cycle under global change scenarios: Echinococcus multilocularis in Europe

Global change is expected to have complex effects on the distribution and transmission patterns of zoonotic parasites. Modelling habitat suitability for parasites with complex life cycles is essential to further our understanding of how disease systems respond to environmental changes, and to make spatial predictions of their future distributions. However, the limited availability of high quality occurrence data with high spatial resolution often constrains these investigations. Using 449 reliable occurrence records for Echinococcus multilocularis from across Europe published over the last 35 years, we modelled habitat suitability for this parasite, the aetiological agent of alveolar echinococcosis, in order to describe its environmental niche, predict its current and future distribution under three global change scenarios, and quantify the probability of occurrence for each European country. Using a machine learning approach, we developed large-scale (25 × 25 km) species distribution models based on seven sets of predictors, each set representing a distinct biological hypothesis supported by current knowledge of the autecology of the parasite. The best-supported hypothesis included climatic, orographic and land-use/land-cover variables such as the temperature of the coldest quarter, forest cover, urban cover and the precipitation seasonality. Future projections suggested the appearance of highly suitable areas for E. multilocularis towards northern latitudes and in the whole Alpine region under all scenarios, while decreases in habitat suitability were predicted for central Europe. Our spatially explicit predictions of habitat suitability shed light on the complex responses of parasites to ongoing global changes.     

Cetacean range and climate in the eastern North Atlantic: future predictions and implications for conservation

There is increasing evidence that the distributions of a large number of species are shifting with global climate change as they track changing surface temperatures that define their thermal niche. Modelling efforts to predict species distributions under future climates have increased with concern about the overall impact of these distribution shifts on species ecology, and especially where barriers to dispersal exist. Here we apply a bio‐climatic envelope modelling technique to investigate the impacts of climate change on the geographic range of ten cetacean species in the eastern North Atlantic and to assess how such modelling can be used to inform conservation and management. The modelling process integrates elements of a species' habitat and thermal niche, and employs “hindcasting” of historical distribution changes in order to verify the accuracy of the modelled relationship between temperature and species range. If this ability is not verified, there is a risk that inappropriate or inaccurate models will be used to make future predictions of species distributions. Of the ten species investigated, we found that while the models for nine could successfully explain current spatial distribution, only four had a good ability to predict distribution changes over time in response to changes in water temperature. Applied to future climate scenarios, the four species‐specific models with good predictive abilities indicated range expansion in one species and range contraction in three others, including the potential loss of up to 80% of suitable white‐beaked dolphin habitat. Model predictions allow identification of affected areas and the likely time‐scales over which impacts will occur. Thus, this work provides important information on both our ability to predict how individual species will respond to future climate change and the applicability of predictive distribution models as a tool to help construct viable conservation and management strategies.     

Assessing future habitat availability for coastal lowland anurans in the Brazilian Atlantic rainforest

Global warming is expected to cause several modifications to physical environments, and sea level rise is a certain outcome. However, assessment of the potential impacts caused by sea level rise on biodiversity is still emerging. Therefore, we assessed the combined impact of global warming and sea level rise on the potential distribution of 19 coastal lowland anurans in the biodiversity hotspot Atlantic Forest. We applied a correlative species distribution model (SDM) (BIOCLIM) and GIS-based spatial analyses. We evaluated the extent of changes of potential distributions under extreme and moderate global warming scenarios as well as two extreme sea level rise scenarios. Our results suggest wide areas of suitable habitat for most species in the future. However, for 15% of these species the SDMs predict massive losses of range extent as a result of a combination of global warming and sea level rise. Such observations highlight an immediate need to consider the potential effects of sea level rise in conservation action plans. Since the current potential distribution of these anuran species is likely underestimated, we also analyzed their environmental niche under current conditions in order to provide a baseline for further field surveys. Considering this current state of knowledge for such species, species distribution modeling to help gather further information on unknown species is desirable.     

The genetic identity of dinoflagellate symbionts in Caribbean octocorals

Many cnidarians (e.g., corals, octocorals, sea anemones) maintain a symbiosis with dinoflagellates (zooxanthellae). Zooxanthellae are grouped into clades, with studies focusing on scleractinian corals. We characterized zooxanthellae in 35 species of Caribbean octocorals. Most Caribbean octocoral species (88.6%) hosted clade B zooxanthellae, 8.6% hosted clade C, and one species (2.9%) hosted clades B and C. Erythropodium caribaeorum harbored clade C and a unique RFLP pattern, which, when sequenced, fell within clade C. Five octocoral species displayed no zooxanthella cladal variation with depth. Nine of the ten octocoral species sampled throughout the Caribbean exhibited no regional zooxanthella cladal differences. The exception, Briareum asbestinum, had some colonies from the Dry Tortugas exhibiting the E. caribaeorum RFLP pattern while elsewhere hosting clade B. In the Caribbean, octocorals show more symbiont specificity at the cladal level than scleractinian corals. Both octocorals and scleractinian corals, however, exhibited taxonomic affinity between zooxanthella clade and host suborder.Communicated by R.C. Carpenter     

Ocean‐scale prediction of whale shark distribution

Aim Predicting distribution patterns of whale sharks (Rhincodon typus, Smith 1828) in the open ocean remains elusive owing to few pelagic records. We developed multivariate distribution models of seasonally variant whale shark distributions derived from tuna purse‐seine fishery data. We tested the hypotheses that whale sharks use a narrow temperature range, are more abundant in productive waters and select sites closer to continents than the open ocean. Location Indian Ocean. Methods We compared a 17‐year time series of observations of whale sharks associated with tuna purse‐seine sets with chlorophyll a concentration and sea surface temperature data extracted from satellite images. Different sets of pseudo‐absences based on random distributions, distance to shark locations and tuna catch were generated to account for spatiotemporal variation in sampling effort and probability of detection. We applied generalized linear, spatial mixed‐effects and Maximum Entropy models to predict seasonal variation in habitat suitability and produced maps of distribution. Results The saturated generalized linear models including bathymetric slope, depth, distance to shore, the quadratic of mean sea surface temperature, sea surface temperature variance and chlorophyll a had the highest relative statistical support, with the highest percent deviance explained when using random pseudo‐absences with fixed effect‐only models and the tuna pseudo‐absences with mixed‐effects models (e.g. 58% and 26% in autumn, respectively). Maximum Entropy results suggested that whale sharks responded mainly to variation in depth, chlorophyll a and temperature in all seasons. Bathymetric slope had only a minor influence on the presence. Main conclusions Whale shark habitat suitability in the Indian Ocean is mainly correlated with spatial variation in sea surface temperature. The relative influence of this predictor provides a basis for predicting habitat suitability in the open ocean, possibly giving insights into the migratory behaviour of the world’s largest fish. Our results also provide a baseline for temperature‐dependent predictions of distributional changes in the future.