Cohort and tag-site-specific tag-loss rates in mark–recapture studies: A southern elephant seal cautionary case

Marker-loss is a common feature of mark–recapture studies and important as it may bias parameter estimation. A slight alteration in tag-site of double tagged southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina), marked at Marion Island from 1983 to 2005 in an ongoing mark–recapture program, had important consequences for tag-loss. We calculated age-specific tag-retention rates and cumulative tag-retention probabilities using a maximum likelihood model selection approach in the software application TAG_LOSS 3.2.0. Under the tag-loss independence assumption, double tag-loss of inner interdigital webbing tags (IIT; 17 cohorts) remained below 1% in the first 5 yr and increased monotonically as seals aged, with higher tag-loss in males. Lifetime cumulative IIT tag-loss was 11.9% for females and 18.4% for males, and equivalent for all cohorts. Changing the tag-site to the outer interdigital webbing (OIT; 6 cohorts) resulted in increased and cohort-dependent tag-loss, although the variation (mean ± 95% CI) in cumulative tag-loss probabilities never exceeded 5.3% between cohorts at similar age. Although different studies may homogenize techniques, we advocate the importance of data set-specific assessment of tag-loss rates to ensure greatest confidence in population parameters obtained from mark–recapture experiments. Permanent marking should be implemented where feasible.     

Study of Aedes albopictus dispersal in Rome,Italy, using sticky traps in mark–release–recapture experiments

We report the results of three mark–release–recapture experiments carried out in an urban area in Rome, Italy, to study the active dispersal of Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae). The 4.3% recapture rate obtained supports the use of sticky traps in MRR experiments to study the dispersal of Ae. albopictus females. Most fluorescent dust‐marked females were recaptured at the gravid stage at 50–200 m from the release sites during the first 9 days after release. The average of daily‐MDTs (Mean Distance Traveled) was 119 m and the maximum observed distance travelled ranged from 199 m to 290 m in the three replicates. These data provide the first information about the dispersal of Ae. albopictus in a temperate European area and appear to be consistent with the few data available on this subject from other urban areas, where dispersal was constrained by physical barriers. Although caution should be taken in generalizing these results, they should be considered when planning control activities in urban areas in Italy, as well as in other European countries. This is particularly relevant if control is intended to interrupt pathogen transmission in cases of possible arbovirus epidemics, such as the Chikungunya outbreak that occurred in Ravenna, Italy in 2007.     

Dispersal capacity of Haematopota spp. and Stomoxys calcitrans using a mark–release–recapture approach in Belgium

The dispersion potential of mechanical vectors is an important factor in the dissemination of pathogens. A mark–release–recapture experiment was implemented using two groups (unfed and partially fed) of the Tabanidae (Diptera) (Haematopota spp.) and biting Muscidae (Diptera) (Stomoxys calcitrans) most frequently collected in Belgium in order to evaluate their dispersion potential. In total, 2104 specimens of Haematopota spp. were collected directly from horses and 5396 S. calcitrans were collected in a cattle farm using hand‐nets. Some of these insects were partially fed in vitro and all were subsequently coloured. Overall, 67 specimens of S. calcitrans (1.2%) and 17 of Haematopota spp. (0.8%) were recaptured directly on horses. Stomoxys calcitrans flew maximum distances of 150 m and 300 m when partially fed and unfed, respectively. Haematopota spp. travelled maximum distances of 100 m and 200 m when partially fed and unfed, respectively. Segregation measures seem essential in order to reduce the risk for pathogen transmission. A distance of 150 m appears to be the minimum required for segregation to avoid the risk for mechanical transmission, but in areas of higher vector density, this should probably be increased.     

Age-specific cost of first reproduction in female southern elephant seals

When to commence breeding is a crucial life-history decision that may be the most important determinant of an individual''s lifetime reproductive output and can have major consequences on population dynamics. The age at which individuals first reproduce is an important factor influencing the intensity of potential costs (e.g. reduced survival) involved in the first breeding event. However, quantifying age-related variation in the cost of first reproduction in wild animals remains challenging because of the difficulty in reliably recording the first breeding event. Here, using a multi-event capture–recapture model that accounts for both imperfect detection and uncertainty in the breeding status on an 18-year dataset involving 6637 individuals, we estimated age and state-specific survival of female elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) in the declining Macquarie Island population. We detected a clear cost of first reproduction on survival. This cost was higher for both younger first-time breeders and older first-time breeders compared with females recruiting at age four, the overall mean age at first reproduction. Neither earlier primiparity nor delaying primiparity appear to confer any evolutionary advantage, rather the optimal strategy seems to be to start breeding at a single age, 4 years.     

Dispersal of butterflies in a New Guinea rainforest: using mark–recapture methods in a large,homogeneous habitat

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Complete tag loss in capture–recapture studies affects abundance estimates: An elephant seal case study

1. In capture–recapture studies, recycled individuals occur when individuals lose all of their tags and are recaptured as though they were new individuals. Typically, the effect of these recycled individuals is assumed negligible.
2. Through a simulation‐based study of double‐tagging experiments, we examined the effect of recycled individuals on parameter estimates in the Jolly–Seber model with tag loss (Cowen & Schwarz, 2006). We validated the simulation framework using long‐term census data of elephant seals.
3. Including recycled individuals did not affect estimates of capture, survival, and tag‐retention probabilities. However, with low tag‐retention rates, high capture rates, and high survival rates, recycled individuals produced overestimates of population size. For the elephant seal case study, we found population size estimates to be between 8% and 53% larger when recycled individuals were ignored.
4. Ignoring the effects of recycled individuals can cause large biases in population size estimates. These results are particularly noticeable in longer studies.

     

Generalized spatial mark–resight models with incomplete identification: An application to red fox density estimates

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Temporal changes in fecundity and age at sexual maturity of southern elephant seals at Marion Island

Our objective was to examine the effect of variation in reproductive parameters on the demography of southern elephant seals at Marion Island. We used age-specific capture probabilities of breeding females in a Cormack-Jolly-Seber context to derive reproductive rates. We found that age at maturity declined and fecundity rates increased as the population declined, indicating a compensatory response. Fecundity rates ranged from 0.03 to 0.29 among 3-year-olds (mean=0.16), 0.18 to 0.50 in 4-year-olds (mean=0.40), and 0.28 to 0.50 in 5-year-olds (mean=0.45). We think that a relative increase in food availability, concomitant with the population decline, promoted earlier sexual maturity correlated with more rapid growth of juveniles when population abundance was lower. It is suggested that the relative importance of fecundity in population regulation in elephant seals has been underestimated. Moreover, it appears that the onset of sexual maturity may be the first demographic variable to change in response to a change in population density.     

State–space mark–recapture estimates reveal a recent decline in abundance of North Atlantic right whales

North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis Müller 1776) present an interesting problem for abundance and trend estimation in marine wildlife conservation. They are long lived, individually identifiable, highly mobile, and one of the rarest of cetaceans. Individuals are annually resighted at different rates, primarily due to varying stay durations among several principal habitats within a large geographic range. To date, characterizations of abundance have been produced that use simple accounting procedures with differing assumptions about mortality. To better characterize changing abundance of North Atlantic right whales between 1990 and 2015, we adapted a state–space formulation with Jolly‐Seber assumptions about population entry (birth and immigration) to individual resighting histories and fit it using empirical Bayes methodology. This hierarchical model included accommodation for the effect of the substantial individual capture heterogeneity. Estimates from this approach were only slightly higher than published accounting procedures, except for the most recent years (when recapture rates had declined substantially). North Atlantic right whales' abundance increased at about 2.8% per annum from median point estimates of 270 individuals in 1990 to 483 in 2010, and then declined to 2015, when the final estimate was 458 individuals (95% credible intervals 444–471). The probability that the population's trajectory post‐2010 was a decline was estimated at 99.99%. Of special concern was the finding that reduced survival rates of adult females relative to adult males have produced diverging abundance trends between sexes. Despite constraints in recent years, both biological (whales' distribution changing) and logistical (fewer resources available to collect individual photo‐identifications), it is still possible to detect this relatively recent, small change in the population's trajectory. This is thanks to the massive dataset of individual North Atlantic right whale identifications accrued over the past three decades. Photo‐identification data provide biological information that allows more informed inference on the status of this species.     

Integrating high‐speed videos in capture‐mark‐recapture studies of insects

Capture–mark–recapture (CMR) studies have been used extensively in ecology and evolution. While it is feasible to apply CMR in some animals, it is considerably more challenging in small fast‐moving species such as insects. In these groups, low recapture rates can bias estimates of demographic parameters, thereby handicapping effective analysis and management of wild populations. Here, we use high‐speed videos (HSV) to capture two large dragonfly species, Anax junius and Rhionaeschna multicolor, that rarely land and, thus, are particularly challenging for CMR studies. We test whether HSV, compared to conventional “eye” observations, increases the “resighting” rates and, consequently, improves estimates of both survival rates and the effects of demographic covariates on survival. We show that the use of HSV increases the number of resights by 64% in A. junius and 48% in R. multicolor. HSV improved our estimates of resighting and survival probability which were either under‐ or overestimated with the conventional observations. Including HSV improved credible intervals for resighting rate and survival probability by 190% and 130% in A. junius and R. multicolor, respectively. Hence, it has the potential to open the door to a wide range of research possibilities on species that are traditionally difficult to monitor with distance sampling, including within insects and birds.     

Validation of photo‐identification as a mark–recapture method in the spotted eagle ray Aetobatus narinari

The spotted eagle ray Aetobatus narinari is characterized by pigmentation patterns that are retained for up to 3·5 years. These pigmentations can be used to identify individuals through photo‐identification. Only one study has validated this technique, but no study has estimated the percentage of correct identification of the rays using this technique. In order to carry out demographic research, a reliable photographic identification technique is needed. To achieve this validation for A. narinari, a double‐mark system was established over 11 months and photographs of the dorsal surface of 191 rays were taken. Three body parts with distinctive natural patterns were analysed (dorsal surface of the cephalic region, dorsal surface of the pectoral fins and dorsal surface of the pelvic fins) in order to determine the body part that could be used to give the highest percentage of correct identification. The dorsal surface of the pectoral fins of A. narinari provides the most accurate photo‐identification to distinguish individuals (88·2%).     

The use of a non‐invasive tool for capture–recapture studies on a seahorse Hippocampus guttulatus population

In this study, the spot pattern in Hippocampus guttulatus was analysed using a computer programme algorithm that allowed individual comparison. This methodology was first tested in a controlled environment using 51 adult and 55 juvenile H. guttulatus. Positive matches were obtained in 86·3 and 83·6% of the adults and juveniles, respectively. In a second experiment, monthly surveys were carried out in five selected locations in the Ria Formosa Lagoon, south Portugal, over the course of a year and a total of 980 photographs were analysed. Photographed H. guttulatus were re‐sighted one to nine times during the course of the survey period with an overall re‐sight record of over 30%. Photo‐identification was therefore shown to be a useful tool for non‐invasive mark–recapture studies that can be successfully used to survey the population abundance of H. guttulatus aged 6 months or older in consecutive years. This could be of great value when considering the assessment of H. guttulatus populations and understanding changes over time.     

Mark–recapture of Agriotes obscurus and Agriotes lineatus with dense arrays of pheromone traps in an undisturbed grassland population reservoir

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Use of PIT tags to assess individual heterogeneity of laboratory‐reared juveniles of the endangered Cumberlandian combshell (Epioblasma brevidens) in a mark–recapture study

The federally endangered Cumberlandian combshell (Epioblasma brevidens) was propagated and reared to taggable size (5–10 mm), and released to the Powell River, Tennessee, to augment a relict population. Methodology using passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags on these mussels greatly facilitated the detection process. The overall mean detection probability and survival rate of released individuals reached 97.8 to 98.4% and 99.7 to 99.9% (per month), respectively, during nine successive recapture occasions in the 2‐year study period, regardless of seasonality. Nonhierarchical models and hierarchical models incorporating individual and seasonal variations through a Bayesian approach were compared and resulted in similar performance of prediction for detection probability and survival rate of mussels. This is the first study to apply the mark–recapture method to laboratory‐reared mussels using PIT tags and stochastic models. Quantitative analyses for individual heterogeneity allowed examination of demographic variance and effects of heterogeneity on population dynamics, although the individual and seasonal variations were small in this study. Our results provide useful information in implementing conservation strategies of this faunal group and a framework for other species or similar studies.     

Individually mark–mass release–resight study elucidates effects of patch characteristics and distance on host patch location by an insect herbivore

1. How organisms locate their hosts is of fundamental importance in a variety of basic and applied ecological fields, including population dynamics, invasive species management and biological control. However, tracking movement of small organisms, such as insects, poses significant logistical challenges. 2. Mass‐release and individual–mark–recapture techniques were combined in an individually mark–mass release–resight (IMMRR) approach to track the movement of over 2000 adult insects in an economically important plant–herbivore system. Despite its widespread use for the biological control of the invasive thistle Carduus nutans, the host‐finding behaviour of the thistle head weevil Rhinocyllus conicus has not previously been studied. Insects were released at different distances from a mosaic of artificially created host patches with different areas and number of plants to assess the ecological determinants of patch finding. 3. The study was able to characterize the within‐season dispersal abilities and between‐patch movement patterns of R. conicus. Weevils found host plant patches over 900 m away. Large patches, with tall plants, situated close to the nearest release point had the highest first R. conicus resights. Patch area and plant density had no effect on the number of weevils resighted per plant; however, R. conicus individuals were more likely to disperse out of small patches and into large patches. 4. By understanding how R. conicus locates host patches of C. nutans, management activities for the control of this invasive thistle can be better informed. A deeper mechanistic understanding of host location will also improve prediction of coupled plant–herbivore spatial dynamics in general.     

multimark: an R package for analysis of capture–recapture data consisting of multiple “noninvasive” marks

I describe an open‐source R package, multimark , for estimation of survival and abundance from capture–mark–recapture data consisting of multiple “noninvasive” marks. Noninvasive marks include natural pelt or skin patterns, scars, and genetic markers that enable individual identification in lieu of physical capture. multimark provides a means for combining and jointly analyzing encounter histories from multiple noninvasive sources that otherwise cannot be reliably matched (e.g., left‐ and right‐sided photographs of bilaterally asymmetrical individuals). The package is currently capable of fitting open population Cormack–Jolly–Seber (CJS) and closed population abundance models with up to two mark types using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. multimark can also be used for Bayesian analyses of conventional capture–recapture data consisting of a single‐mark type. Some package features include (1) general model specification using formulas already familiar to most R users, (2) ability to include temporal, behavioral, age, cohort, and individual heterogeneity effects in detection and survival probabilities, (3) improved MCMC algorithm that is computationally faster and more efficient than previously proposed methods, (4) Bayesian multimodel inference using reversible jump MCMC, and (5) data simulation capabilities for power analyses and assessing model performance. I demonstrate use of multimark using left‐ and right‐sided encounter histories for bobcats (Lynx rufus) collected from remote single‐camera stations in southern California. In this example, there is evidence of a behavioral effect (i.e., trap “happy” response) that is otherwise indiscernible using conventional single‐sided analyses. The package will be most useful to ecologists seeking stronger inferences by combining different sources of mark–recapture data that are difficult (or impossible) to reliably reconcile, particularly with the sparse datasets typical of rare or elusive species for which noninvasive sampling techniques are most commonly employed. Addressing deficiencies in currently available software, multimark also provides a user‐friendly interface for performing Bayesian multimodel inference using capture–recapture data consisting of a single conventional mark or multiple noninvasive marks.