Spatial–temporal analysis of species range expansion: the case of the mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae

Aim The spatial extent of western Canada’s current epidemic of mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins (Coleoptera: Curculionidae, Scolytinae), is increasing. The roles of the various dispersal processes acting as drivers of range expansion are poorly understood for most species. The aim of this paper is to characterize the movement patterns of the mountain pine beetle in areas where range expansion is occurring, in order to describe the fine‐scale spatial dynamics of processes associated with mountain pine beetle range expansion. Location Three regions of Canada’s Rocky Mountains: Kicking Horse Pass, Yellowhead Pass and Pine Pass. Methods Data on locations of mountain pine beetle‐attacked trees of predominantly lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia) were obtained from annual fixed‐wing aircraft surveys of forest health and helicopter‐based GPS surveys of mountain pine beetle‐damaged areas in British Columbia and Alberta. The annual (1999–2005) spatial extents of outbreak ranges were delineated from these data. Spatial analysis was conducted using the spatial–temporal analysis of moving polygons (STAMP), a recently developed pattern‐based approach. Results We found that distant dispersal patterns (spot infestations) were most often associated with marginal increases in the areal size of mountain pine beetle range polygons. When the mountain pine beetle range size increased rapidly relative to the years examined, local dispersal patterns (adjacent infestation) were more common. In Pine Pass, long‐range dispersal (> 2 km) markedly extended the north‐east border of the mountain pine beetle range. In Yellowhead Pass and Kicking Horse Pass, the extension of the range occurred incrementally via ground‐based spread. Main conclusions Dispersal of mountain pine beetle varies with geography as well as with host and beetle population dynamics. Although colonization is mediated by habitat connectivity, during periods of low overall habitat expansion, dispersal to new distant locations is common, whereas during periods of rapid invasion, locally connected spread is the dominant mode of dispersal. The propensity for long‐range transport to establish new beetle populations, and thus to be considered a driver of range expansion, is likely to be determined by regional weather patterns, and influenced by local topography. We conclude that STAMP appears to be a useful approach for examining changes in biogeograpical ranges, with the potential to reveal both fine‐ and large‐scale patterns.     

Spatial genetic structure of the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) outbreak in western Canada: historical patterns and contemporary dispersal

Environmental change has a wide range of ecological consequences, including species extinction and range expansion. Many studies have shown that insect species respond rapidly to climatic change. A mountain pine beetle epidemic of record size in North America has led to unprecedented mortality of lodgepole pine, and a significant range expansion to the northeast of its historic range. Our goal was to determine the spatial genetic variation found among outbreak population from which genetic structure, and dispersal patterns may be inferred. Beetles from 49 sampling locations throughout the outbreak area in western Canada were analysed at 13 microsatellite loci. We found significant north-south population structure as evidenced by: (i) Bayesian-based analyses, (ii) north-south genetic relationships and diversity gradients; and (iii) a lack of isolation-by-distance in the northernmost cluster. The north-south structure is proposed to have arisen from the processes of postglacial colonization as well as recent climate-driven changes in population dynamics. Our data support the hypothesis of multiple sources of origin for the outbreak and point to the need for population specific information to improve our understanding and management of outbreaks. The recent range expansion across the Rocky Mountains into the jack/lodgepole hybrid and pure jack pine zones of northern Alberta is consistent with a northern British Columbia origin. We detected no loss of genetic variability in these populations, indicating that the evolutionary potential of mountain pine beetle to adapt has not been reduced by founder events. This study illustrates a rapid range-wide response to the removal of climatic constraints, and the potential for range expansion of a regional population.     

Population structure and migration pattern of a conifer pathogen, Grosmannia clavigera, as influenced by its symbiont, the mountain pine beetle

We investigated the population structure of Grosmannia clavigera (Gc), a fungal symbiont of the mountain pine beetle (MPB) that plays a crucial role in the establishment and reproductive success of this pathogen. This insect-fungal complex has destroyed over 16 million ha of lodgepole pine forests in Canada, the largest MPB epidemic in recorded history. During this current epidemic, MPB has expanded its range beyond historically recorded boundaries, both northward and eastward, and has now reached the jack pine of Alberta, potentially threatening the Canadian boreal forest. To better understand the dynamics between the beetle and its fungal symbiont, we sampled 19 populations in western North America and genotyped individuals from these populations with eight microsatellite markers. The fungus displayed high haplotype diversity, with over 250 unique haplotypes observed in 335 single spore isolates. Linkage equilibria in 13 of the 19 populations suggested that the fungus reproduces sexually. Bayesian clustering and distance analyses identified four genetic clusters that corresponded to four major geographical regions, which suggested that the epidemic arose from multiple geographical sources. A genetic cluster north of the Rocky Mountains, where the MPB has recently become established, experienced a population bottleneck, probably as a result of the recent range expansion. The two genetic clusters located north and west of the Rocky Mountains contained many fungal isolates admixed from all populations, possibly due to the massive movement of MPB during the epidemic. The general agreement in north-south differentiation of MPB and G. clavigera populations points to the fungal pathogen's dependence on the movement of its insect vector. In addition, the patterns of diversity and the individual assignment tests of the fungal associate suggest that migration across the Rocky Mountains occurred via a northeastern corridor, in accordance with meteorological patterns and observation of MPB movement data. Our results highlight the potential of this pathogen for both expansion and sexual reproduction, and also identify some possible barriers to gene flow. Understanding the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of this fungus-beetle association is important for the modelling and prediction of MPB epidemics.     

Modeling the Expansion of an Introduced Tree Disease

Pine wilt disease is caused by the introduced pinewood nematode, Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, for which the vector is the pine sawyer beetle, Monochamus alternatus. Native Japanese pines, black pine (Pinus thunbergii) and red pine (P. densiflora), are extremely sensitive to the nematode's infection, and the parasite has been expanding nationwide in the last few decades, despite intensive control efforts. To understand the parasite's range expansion in Japan, we modeled the dynamics of the pines and the beetle that disperses the nematode, using an integro-difference equation in a one-dimensional space. Based on field data collected in Japan, we investigated the dependence of the parasite's rate of range expansion on the eradication rate of the beetle, the initial pine density, and the beetle dispersal ability. Our model predicts several results. (1) The Allee Effect operates on beetle reproduction, and consequently the parasite cannot invade a pine stand, once the beetle density decreases below a threshold. (2) The distribution of the dispersal distance of the beetles critically affects the expansion rate of the disease. As the fraction of the beetles that travel over long distance increases from zero, the range expansion accelerates sharply. (3) However, too frequent long-range dispersal results in a failure of the parasite invasion due to the Allee Effect, suggesting the importance of correctly assessing the beetle's mobility to predict the speed of range expansion of the parasite. (4) As the eradication rate is increased, the range expansion speed decreases gradually at first and suddenly drops to zero at a specific value of the eradication rate. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Population Structure of Mountain Pine Beetle Symbiont Leptographium longiclavatum and the Implication on the Multipartite Beetle-Fungi Relationships

Over 18 million ha of forests have been destroyed in the past decade in Canada by the mountain pine beetle (MPB) and its fungal symbionts. Understanding their population dynamics is critical to improving modeling of beetle epidemics and providing potential clues to predict population expansion. Leptographium longiclavatum and Grosmannia clavigera are fungal symbionts of MPB that aid the beetle to colonize and kill their pine hosts. We investigated the genetic structure and demographic expansion of L. longiclavatum in populations established within the historic distribution range and in the newly colonized regions. We identified three genetic clusters/populations that coincide with independent geographic locations. The genetic profiles of the recently established populations in northern British Columbia (BC) and Alberta suggest that they originated from central and southern BC. Approximate Bayesian Computation supports the scenario that this recent expansion represents an admixture of individuals originating from BC and the Rocky Mountains. Highly significant correlations were found among genetic distance matrices of L. longiclavatum, G. clavigera, and MPB. This highlights the concordance of demographic processes in these interacting organisms sharing a highly specialized niche and supports the hypothesis of long-term multipartite beetle-fungus co-evolutionary history and mutualistic relationships.     

Landscape level analysis of mountain pine beetle in British Columbia, Canada: spatiotemporal development and spatial synchrony within the present outbreak

Eruptive herbivores can exert profound landscape level influences. For example, the ongoing mountain pine beetle outbreak in British Columbia, Canada, has resulted in mortality of mature lodgepole pine over >7 million ha. Analysis of the spatio‐temporal pattern of spread can lend insights into the processes initiating and/or sustaining such phenomena. We present a landscape level analysis of the development of the current outbreak. Aerial survey assessments of tree mortality, projected onto discrete 12×12 km cells, were used as a proxy for insect population density. We examined whether the outbreak potentially originated from an epicenter and spread, or whether multiple localized populations erupted simultaneously at spatially disjunct locations. An aspatial cluster analysis of time series from 1990 to 2003 revealed four distinct time series patterns. Each time series demonstrated a general progression of increasing mountain pine beetle populations. Plotting the geographical locations of each temporal pattern revealed that the outbreak occurred first in an area of west‐central British Columbia, and then in an area to the east. The plot further revealed many localized infestations erupted in geographically disjunct areas, especially in the southern portion of the province. Autologistic regression analyses indicated a significant, positive association between areas where the outbreak first occurred and conservation lands. For example, the delineated area of west‐central British Columbia is comprised of three conservation parks and adjacent working forest. We further examined how population synchrony declines with distance at different population levels. Examination of the spatial dependence of temporal synchrony in population fluctuations during early, incipient years (i.e. 1990–1996) suggested that outbreaking mountain pine beetle populations are largely independent at scales >200 km during non‐epidemic periods. However, during epidemic years (i.e. 1999–2003), populations were clearly synchronous across the entire province, even at distances of up to 900 km. The epicentral pattern of population development can be used to identify and prioritize adjacent landscape units for both reactive and proactive management strategies intended to minimize mountain pine beetle impacts.     

A spatiotemporal pattern analysis of historical mountain pine beetle outbreaks in British Columbia,Canada

This study documents the spatiotemporal patterns of mountain pine beetle infestations by applying a novel approach based on a landscape infestation dynamics conceptual model in combination with morphological spatial pattern analysis using the mountain pine beetle infested pine mortality data (1960–2010) collected by the annual British Columbia aerial overview survey. The pattern analysis at the provincial level reveals that the 1980s outbreak did not crash as originally thought. The current outbreak is most likely a result of the progressive buildup of the epidemic infestations during the transition period (1985–1995) under favourable weather conditions and substantially improved host resources. This is also true for the Northeast and Cariboo areas of the province specifically, even though the infestations in the Cariboo area remained at incipient‐epidemic levels during the transition period after the 1980s outbreak crashed in 1985. In the Southeast area, the current outbreak apparently continued from the outbreak that initiated in the late 1970s and early 1980s. The 1980s outbreak originated from multiple spatially separate locations whereas the current outbreak initiated from a single location in Tweedsmuir Provincial Park. The centralized and self‐amplifying buildup of the current outbreak implicates at least three substantial expansions that occurred in 2002, 2006, and 2008. This study suggests that at the provincial level, as well as for the Northeast and Southeast areas of the province, the current outbreak is declining but most likely will continue for many years given the ongoing and future warming climate and a large proportion of pines that remain in the habitats of mountain pine beetles. This study also suggests that dispersals, particularly long‐distance dispersal, may play a key role in driving the spread and expansion of the current outbreak although uncertainty remains due to the local dynamics of the beetle populations.     

Influences of the biophysical environment on blister rust and mountain pine beetle,and their interactions,in whitebark pine forests

Aim To understand how the biophysical environment influences patterns of infection by non‐native blister rust (caused by Cronartium ribicola) and mortality caused by native mountain pine beetles (Dendroctonus ponderosae) in whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) communities, to determine how these disturbances interact, and to gain insight into how climate change may influence these patterns in the future. Location High‐elevation forests in south‐west Montana, central Idaho, eastern and western Oregon, USA. Methods Stand inventory and dendroecological methods were used to assess stand structure and composition and to reconstruct forest history at sixty 0.1‐ha plots. Patterns of blister rust infection and mountain pine beetle‐caused mortality in whitebark pine trees were examined using nonparametric Kruskal–Wallis ANOVA, Mann–Whitney U‐tests, and Kolmogorov–Smirnov two‐sample tests. Stepwise regression was used to build models of blister rust infection and mountain pine beetle‐related mortality rates based on a suite of biophysical site variables. Results Occurrence of blister rust infections was significantly different among the mountain ranges, with a general gradient of decreasing blister rust occurrence from east to west. Evidence of mountain pine beetle‐caused mortality was identified on 83% of all dead whitebark pine trees and was relatively homogenous across the study area. Blister rust infected trees of all ages and sizes uniformly, while mountain pine beetles infested older, larger trees at all sites. Stepwise regressions explained 64% and 58% of the variance in blister rust infection and beetle‐caused mortality, respectively, indicating that these processes are strongly influenced by the biophysical environment. More open stand structures produced by beetle outbreaks may increase the exposure of surviving whitebark pine trees to blister rust infection. Main conclusions Variability in the patterns of blister rust infection and mountain pine beetle‐caused mortality elucidated the fundamental dynamics of these disturbance agents and suggests that the effects of climate change will be complex in whitebark pine communities and vary across the species’ range. Interactions between blister rust and beetle outbreaks may accelerate declines or facilitate the rise of rust resistance in whitebark pine depending on forest conditions at the time of the outbreak.     

Propagule pressure and colony social organization are associated with the successful invasion and rapid range expansion of fire ants in China

We characterized patterns of genetic variation in populations of the fire ant Solenopsis invicta in China using mitochondrial DNA sequences and nuclear microsatellite loci to test predictions as to how propagule pressure and subsequent dispersal following establishment jointly shape the invasion success of this ant in this recently invaded area. Fire ants in Wuchuan (Guangdong Province) are genetically differentiated from those found in other large infested areas of China. The immediate source of ants in Wuchuan appears to be somewhere near Texas, which ranks first among the southern USA infested states in the exportation of goods to China. Most colonies from spatially distant, outlying areas in China are genetically similar to one another and appear to share a common source (Wuchuan, Guangdong Province), suggesting that long‐distance jump dispersal has been a prevalent means of recent spread of fire ants in China. Furthermore, most colonies at outlier sites are of the polygyne social form (featuring multiple egg‐laying queens per nest), reinforcing the important role of this social form in the successful invasion of new areas and subsequent range expansion following invasion. Several analyses consistently revealed characteristic signatures of genetic bottlenecks for S. invicta populations in China. The results of this study highlight the invasive potential of this pest ant, suggest that the magnitude of international trade may serve as a predictor of propagule pressure and indicate that rates and patterns of subsequent range expansion are partly determined by the interplay between species traits and the trade and transportation networks.     

Evaluating future success of whitebark pine ecosystem restoration under climate change using simulation modeling

Major declines of whitebark pine forests throughout western North America from the combined effects of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) outbreaks, fire exclusion policies, and the exotic disease white pine blister rust (WPBR) have spurred many restoration actions. However, projected future warming and drying may further exacerbate the species' decline and possibly compromise long‐term success of today's restoration activities. We evaluated successes of restoration treatments under future climate using a comprehensive landscape simulation experiment. The spatially explicit, ecological process model FireBGCv2 was used to simulate whitebark pine populations on two U.S. Northern Rocky Mountain landscapes over 95 years under two climate, three restoration, and two fire management scenarios. Major findings were that (1) whitebark pine can remain on some high mountain landscapes in a future climate albeit at lower basal areas (50% decrease), (2) restoration efforts, such as thinning and prescribed burning, are vital to ensure future whitebark pine forests, and (3) climate change impacts on whitebark pine vary by local setting. Whitebark pine restoration efforts will mostly be successful in the future but only if future populations are somewhat resistant to WPBR. Results were used to develop general guidelines that address climate change impacts for planning, designing, implementing, and evaluating fine‐scale restoration activities.     

Reconstruction of a windborne insect invasion using a particle dispersal model,historical wind data,and Bayesian analysis of genetic data

Understanding how invasive species establish and spread is vital for developing effective management strategies for invaded areas and identifying new areas where the risk of invasion is highest. We investigated the explanatory power of dispersal histories reconstructed based on local‐scale wind data and a regional‐scale wind‐dispersed particle trajectory model for the invasive seed chalcid wasp Megastigmus schimitscheki (Hymenoptera: Torymidae) in France. The explanatory power was tested by: (1) survival analysis of empirical data on M. schimitscheki presence, absence and year of arrival at 52 stands of the wasp's obligate hosts, Cedrus (true cedar trees); and (2) Approximate Bayesian analysis of M. schimitscheki genetic data using a coalescence model. The Bayesian demographic modeling and traditional population genetic analysis suggested that initial invasion across the range was the result of long‐distance dispersal from the longest established sites. The survival analyses of the windborne expansion patterns derived from a particle dispersal model indicated that there was an informative correlation between the M. schimitscheki presence/absence data from the annual surveys and the scenarios based on regional‐scale wind data. These three very different analyses produced highly congruent results supporting our proposal that wind is the most probable vector for passive long‐distance dispersal of this invasive seed wasp. This result confirms that long‐distance dispersal from introduction areas is a likely driver of secondary expansion of alien invasive species. Based on our results, management programs for this and other windborne invasive species may consider (1) focusing effort at the longest established sites and (2) monitoring outlying populations remains critically important due to their influence on rates of spread. We also suggest that there is a distinct need for new analysis methods that have the capacity to combine empirical spatiotemporal field data, genetic data, and environmental data to investigate dispersal and invasion.     

Molecular evidence for Pleistocene glacial cycles driving diversification of a North American desert spider, Agelenopsis aperta

The influence of historical climatic vs. geological changes on species diversification patterns was investigated in a widely distributed North American desert spider, Agelenopsis aperta (Araneae: Agelenidae), with particular reference to Pleistocene glacial cycles and earlier patterns of mountain building. Levels of sequence divergence obtained from the mitochondrial gene, cytochrome oxidase I, dated to the Pleistocene, eliminating Rocky Mountain orogeny as a cause of diversification, as orogeny ended 4 million years ago. The results of phylogenetic and network analyses showed the presence of three geographically defined clades, which were consistent with the presence of at least three glacial refugia: (i) east of the Rocky Mountains; (ii) between the Rocky Mountains and Sierra Nevadas; and (iii) west of the Sierra Nevadas. In addition, populations within the Rocky Mountains exhibited significantly lower genetic diversity than populations east of the Rocky Mountains and the haplotypes found within the Rockies were a subset of eastern haplotypes. These patterns suggest that a post-Pleistocene range expansion occurred out of an eastern glacial refugium into the Rocky Mountains. Examination of phylogeographical studies of other North American desert taxa indicated that mountain building explained diversification patterns more effectively for some taxa but Pleistocene climate change was more important for others, including A. aperta.     

Energy use by the mountain pine beetle (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae) for dispersal by flight

The mountain pine beetle Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins is a major native pest of Pinus Linnaeus (Pinaceae) in western North America. Host colonization by the mountain pine beetle is associated with an obligatory dispersal phase, during which beetles fly in search of a suitable host. Mountain pine beetles use stored energy from feeding in the natal habitat to power flight before host colonization and brood production. Lipids fuel mountain pine beetle flight, although it is not known whether other energy sources are also used during flight. In the present study, we compare the level of energy substrates, proteins, carbohydrates and lipids of individual mountain pine beetles flown on flight mills with unflown control beetles. We use a colorimetric method to measure the entire metabolite content of each individual beetle. The present study reveals that mountain pine beetles are composed of more protein and lipid than carbohydrate. Both female and male mountain pine beetles use lipids and carbohydrates as energy sources during flight. There is variation between sexes, however, in the energy substrates used for flight. Male mountain pine beetles use protein, in addition to lipids and carbohydrates, to fuel flight, whereas protein content is not different between flown and control females.     

THE IMPACT OF TREE SQUIRRELS (TAMIASCIURUS) ON LIMBER PINE SEED DISPERSAL ADAPTATIONS

Tree squirrels (Tamiasciurus) are important selective agents on conifer reproductive strategies (Smith 1970, 1975). Although this is well established for wind-dispersed pines, the impact of tree squirrels on bird-dispersed pines has been largely ignored. I assessed the impact of tree squirrels on the allocation of reproductive energy in the bird-dispersed limber pine (Pinus flexilis) by comparing its cone and seed traits from three sites in the Rocky Mountains where tree squirrels (Tamiasciurus) are present to those from three mountain ranges in the Great Basin where tree squirrels are absent. As predicted, differences between the two regions in individual cone and seed traits are consistent with the hypothesis that tree squirrels are important selective agents on these traits. In the absence of tree squirrels, limber pine allocates more than twice as much energy to kernel compared with that invested in putative seed defenses (cone, resin, and seed coat) as does limber pine where tree squirrels are present. Such a large difference is particularly striking, because tree squirrels may have become extinct in the Great Basin in only the last 12,000 yr. Although many factors influence the allocation of energy to cones and seeds, no single factor other than the presence of tree squirrels is compatible with the large and consistent differences between limber pine in the Rocky Mountains and Great Basin. These results show that tree squirrels are an important constraint on the evolution of cone and seed traits that promote the dispersal of seeds by birds.     

Long‐distance dispersal of non‐native pine bark beetles from host resources

1. Dispersal and host detection are behaviours promoting the spread of invading populations in a landscape matrix. In fragmented landscapes, the spatial arrangement of habitat structure affects the dispersal success of organisms. 2. The aim of the present study was to determine the long distance dispersal capabilities of two non‐native pine bark beetles (Hylurgus ligniperda and Hylastes ater) in a modified and fragmented landscape with non‐native pine trees. The role of pine density in relation to the abundance of dispersing beetles was also investigated. 3. This study took place in the Southern Alps, New Zealand. A network of insect panel traps was installed in remote valleys at known distances from pine resources (plantations or windbreaks). Beetle abundance was compared with spatially weighted estimates of nearby pine plantations and pine windbreaks. 4. Both beetles were found ≥25 km from the nearest host patch, indicating strong dispersal and host detection capabilities. Small pine patches appear to serve as stepping stones, promoting spread through the landscape. Hylurgus ligniperda (F.) abundance had a strong inverse association with pine plantations and windbreaks, whereas H. ater abundance was not correlated with distance to pine plantations but positively correlated with distance to pine windbreaks, probably reflecting differences in biology and niche preferences. Host availability and dispersed beetle abundance are the proposed limiting factors impeding the spread of these beetles. 5. These mechanistic insights into the spread and persistence of H. ater and H. ligniperda in a fragmented landscape provide ecologists and land managers with a better understanding of factors leading to successful invasion events, particularly in relation to the importance of long‐distance dispersal ability and the distribution and size of host patches.     

Spatial scaling of mountain pine beetle infestations

1. The relationship between occupancy and spatial contagion during the spread of eruptive and invasive species demands greater study, as it could lead to improved prediction of ecosystem damage. 2. We applied a recently developed model that links occupancy and its fractal dimension to model the spatial distribution of mountain pine beetle infestations in British Columbia, Canada. We showed that the distribution of infestation was scale-invariant in at least 24 out of 37 years (mostly in epidemic years), and presented some degree of scale-invariance in the rest. There was a general logarithmic relationship between fractal dimension and infestation occupancy. Based on the scale-invariance assumption, we further assessed the interrelationships for several landscape metrics, such as correlation length, maximum cluster size, total edge length and total number of clusters. 3. The scale-invariance assumption allows fitting the above metrics, and provides a framework to establish the scaling relationship between occupancy and spatial contagion. 4. We concluded that scale-invariance dominates the spread of mountain pine beetle. In this context, spatial aggregation can be predicted from occupancy, hence occupancy is the only variable one needs to know in order to predict the spatial distributions of populations. This supports the hypothesis that fractal dispersal kernels may be abundant among outbreaks of pests and invasive species.     

Modelling local and long-distance dispersal of invasive emerald ash borer Agrilus planipennis (Coleoptera) in North America

Limiting the damage by non-indigenous species requires rapid determination of current and potential distributions and vectors of dispersal, and development of appropriate management measures. The emerald ash borer ( Agrilus planipennis ), a wood-boring beetle native to South-East Asia, was first reported in the Great Lakes region during summer 2002. The beetle poses an enormous threat to native ash ( Fraxinus ) species of North America, as untreated trees in infested areas of Ontario, Michigan and Ohio suffer high mortality. We demonstrate that the borer has spread in North America through a combination of diffusive range extension, associated with local flights, and by long-distance 'jump' dispersal associated with human movement of infested sapling or contaminated firewood. Probability of infestation was inversely related to distance from borer epicentres but positively related to the size of human population centres. At least 9 of 39 populations that were first reported in Michigan during 2004 cannot be accounted for by local diffusion, raising the possibility that other unidentified mechanisms may be contributing to the dispersal of the beetle. In the absence of quarantine, by 2005 all of Michigan's lower peninsula was contained within the boundaries of potential diffusive range expansion. Infested ash saplings also were introduced from Michigan to Maryland during 2003, and subsequently transplanted to five sites in Maryland and Virginia. Quarantine and eradication measures have had mixed results: in the south-central USA, the species appears on the brink of eradication, whereas its distribution has continued to spread during 2005 in the Great Lakes region despite extensive containment and quarantine measures. Quarantine success in the Great Lakes region is encumbered by multiple dispersal vectors, larger borer population sizes and by the more extensive geographical distribution that was achieved prior to implementation of control measures.     

Dispersal evolution diminishes the negative density dependence in dispersal

In many organisms, dispersal varies with the local population density. Such patterns of density-dependent dispersal (DDD) are expected to shape the dynamics, spatial spread, and invasiveness of populations. Despite their ecological importance, empirical evidence for the evolution of DDD patterns remains extremely scarce. This is especially relevant because rapid evolution of dispersal traits has now been empirically confirmed in several taxa. Changes in DDD of dispersing populations could help clarify not only the role of DDD in dispersal evolution, but also the possible pattern of subsequent range expansion. Here, we investigate the relationship between dispersal evolution and DDD using a long-term experimental evolution study on Drosophila melanogaster. We compared the DDD patterns of four dispersal-selected populations and their non-selected controls. The control populations showed negative DDD, which was stronger in females than in males. In contrast, the dispersal-selected populations showed DDD, where neither males nor females exhibited DDD. We compare our results with previous evolutionary predictions that focused largely on positive DDD, and highlight how the direction of evolutionary change depends on the initial DDD pattern of a population. Finally, we discuss the implications of DDD evolution for spatial ecology and evolution.     

Shifting dispersal modes at an expanding species’ range margin

While it is generally recognized that noncontiguous (long‐distance) dispersal of small numbers of individuals is important for range expansion over large geographic areas, it is often assumed that colonization on more local scales proceeds by population expansion and diffusion dispersal (larger numbers of individuals colonizing adjacent sites). There are few empirical studies of dispersal modes at the front of expanding ranges, and very little information is available on dispersal dynamics at smaller geographic scales where we expect contiguous (diffusion) dispersal to be prevalent. We used highly polymorphic genetic markers to characterize dispersal modes at a local geographic scale for populations at the edge of the range of a newly invasive grass species (Brachypodium sylvaticum) that is undergoing rapid range expansion in the Pacific Northwest of North America. Comparisons of Bayesian clustering of populations, patterns of genetic diversity, and gametic disequilibrium indicate that new populations are colonized ahead of the invasion front by noncontiguous dispersal from source populations, with admixture occurring as populations age. This pattern of noncontiguous colonization was maintained even at a local scale. Absence of evidence for dispersal among adjacent pioneer sites at the edge of the expanding range of this species suggests that pioneer populations undergo an establishment phase during which they do not contribute emigrants for colonization of neighbouring sites. Our data indicate that dispersal modes change as the invasion matures: initial colonization processes appear to be dominated by noncontiguous dispersal from only a few sources, while contiguous dispersal may play a greater role once populations become established.     

Population genetic data suggest a role for mosquito‐mediated dispersal of West Nile virus across the western United States

After introduction, West Nile virus (WNV) spread rapidly across the western United States between the years 2001 and 2004. This westward movement is thought to have been mediated by random dispersive movements of resident birds. Little attention has been placed on the role of mosquito vectors in virus dispersal across North America. The mosquito vector largely responsible for WNV amplification and transmission of WNV in the western USA is Culex tarsalis. Here we present population genetic data that suggest a potential role for C. tarsalis in the dispersal of WNV across the western USA. Population genetic structure across the species range of C. tarsalis in the USA was characterized in 16 states using 12 microsatellite loci. structure and geneland analyses indicated the presence of three broad population clusters. Barriers to gene flow were resolved near the Sonoran desert in southern Arizona and between the eastern Rocky Mountains and High Plains plateau. Small genetic distances among populations within clusters indicated that gene flow was not obstructed over large portions of the West Coast and within the Great Plains region. Overall, gene flow in C. tarsalis appears to be extensive, potentially mediated by movement of mosquitoes among neighbouring populations and hindered in geographically limited parts of its range. The pattern of genetic clustering in C. tarsalis is congruent with the pattern of invasion of WNV across the western United States, raising the possibility that movement of this important vector may be involved in viral dispersal.