Global response of terrestrial ecosystem structure and function to CO2 and climate change: results from six dynamic global vegetation models

The possible responses of ecosystem processes to rising atmospheric CO₂ concentration and climate change are illustrated using six dynamic global vegetation models that explicitly represent the interactions of ecosystem carbon and water exchanges with vegetation dynamics. The models are driven by the IPCC IS92a scenario of rising CO₂ ( Wigley et al. 1991 ), and by climate changes resulting from effective CO₂ concentrations corresponding to IS92a, simulated by the coupled ocean atmosphere model HadCM2‐SUL. Simulations with changing CO₂ alone show a widely distributed terrestrial carbon sink of 1.4–3.8 Pg C y^?1 during the 1990s, rising to 3.7–8.6 Pg C y^?1 a century later. Simulations including climate change show a reduced sink both today (0.6–3.0 Pg C y^?1) and a century later (0.3–6.6 Pg C y^?1) as a result of the impacts of climate change on NEP of tropical and southern hemisphere ecosystems. In all models, the rate of increase of NEP begins to level off around 2030 as a consequence of the ‘diminishing return’ of physiological CO₂ effects at high CO₂ concentrations. Four out of the six models show a further, climate‐induced decline in NEP resulting from increased heterotrophic respiration and declining tropical NPP after 2050. Changes in vegetation structure influence the magnitude and spatial pattern of the carbon sink and, in combination with changing climate, also freshwater availability (runoff). It is shown that these changes, once set in motion, would continue to evolve for at least a century even if atmospheric CO₂ concentration and climate could be instantaneously stabilized. The results should be considered illustrative in the sense that the choice of CO₂ concentration scenario was arbitrary and only one climate model scenario was used. However, the results serve to indicate a range of possible biospheric responses to CO₂ and climate change. They reveal major uncertainties about the response of NEP to climate change resulting, primarily, from differences in the way that modelled global NPP responds to a changing climate. The simulations illustrate, however, that the magnitude of possible biospheric influences on the carbon balance requires that this factor is taken into account for future scenarios of atmospheric CO₂ and climate change.     

Net biome production of the Amazon Basin in the 21st century

Global change includes multiple stressors to natural ecosystems ranging from direct climate and land‐use impacts to indirect degradation processes resulting from fire. Humid tropical forests are vulnerable to projected climate change and possible synergistic interactions with deforestation and fire, which may initiate a positive feedback to rising atmospheric CO₂. Here, we present results from a multifactorial impact analysis that combined an ensemble of climate change models with feedbacks from deforestation and accidental fires to quantify changes in Amazon Basin carbon cycling. Using the LPJmL Dynamic Global Vegetation Model, we modelled spatio‐temporal changes in net biome production (NBP); the difference between carbon fluxes from fire, deforestation, soil respiration and net primary production. By 2050, deforestation and fire (with no CO₂ increase or climate change) resulted in carbon losses of 7.4–20.3 Pg C with the range of uncertainty depending on socio‐economic storyline. During the same time period, interactions between climate and land use either compensated for carbon losses due to wetter climate and CO₂ fertilization or exacerbated carbon losses from drought‐induced forest mortality (?20.1 to +4.3 Pg C). By the end of the 21st century, depending on climate projection and the rate of deforestation (including its interaction with fire), carbon stocks either increased (+12.6 Pg C) or decreased (?40.6 Pg C). The synergistic effect of deforestation and fire with climate change contributed up to 26–36 Pg C of the overall decrease in carbon stocks. Agreement between climate projections (n=9), not accounting for deforestation and fire, in 2050 and 2098 was relatively low for the directional change in basin‐wide NBP (19–37%) and aboveground live biomass (13–24%). The largest uncertainty resulted from climate projections, followed by implementation of ecosystem dynamics and deforestation. Our analysis partitions the drivers of tropical ecosystem change and is relevant for guiding mitigation and adaptation policy related to global change.     

Defining the importance of including transient ecosystem responses to simulate C‐cycle dynamics in a global change model

The ability of plant species to migrate is one of the critical issues in assessing accurately the future response of the terrestrial biosphere to climate change. This ability is confined by both natural and human‐induced changes in land cover. In this paper we present land‐cover and Carbon (C) cycle models designed to simulate the biospheric consequences of different types of land‐cover changes. These models, imbedded in the larger integrated assessment model IMAGE 2, were used to demonstrate the importance of considering spatial aspects for global C‐cycle modelling. A gradual‐migration, an unlimited‐migration and a no‐migration case were compared to show the range of possible consequences. Major differences between these cases were simulated for land‐cover patterns and the carbon budget. A large geographical variation in the biospheric response was also simulated. The strongest response was simulated in high‐latitude regions, especially for the migration cases in which land‐cover changes were permitted. In low‐latitudes regions the differences between the migration cases were smaller, mainly due to the effects of land‐use changes. The geographical variation among, and the different responses, the migration cases clearly demonstrate how essential it is to assess biospheric responses to climate change and land use simultaneously. Moreover, it also shows the urgent need for enhanced understanding of spatial and temporal dynamics of the biospheric responses.     

Effects of species composition, land surface cover, CO2 concentration and climate on isoprene emissions from European forests.

Emissions of isoprene from terrestrial vegetation are known to affect atmospheric chemical properties, like its oxidation capacity or the concentration of tropospheric ozone. The latter is of concern, since besides being a potent greenhouse gas, O(3) is toxic for humans, animals, and plants even at relatively low concentrations. Isoprene-emitting forests in the vicinity of NO(x) pollution sources (like cities) can contribute considerably to O(3) formation, and to the peak concentrations observed during hot summer weather. The biogenic contribution to O(3) concentrations is generally thought to increase in a future, warmer climate--pushing values beyond health thresholds possibly even more frequently and over larger areas--given that emissions of isoprene are highly temperature-dependent but also because of the CO(2) fertilisation of forest productivity and leaf growth. Most projections of future emissions, however, do not include the possible CO(2)-inhibition of leaf isoprene metabolism. We explore the regional distribution of emissions from European woody vegetation, using a mechanistic isoprene-dynamic vegetation model framework. We investigate the interactive effects of climate and CO(2) concentration on forest productivity, species composition, and isoprene emissions for the periods 1981-2000 and 2081-2100. Our projection of future emissions includes a direct CO(2)-isoprene inhibition. Across the model domain, we show that this direct effect has the potential to offset the stimulation of emissions that could be expected from warmer temperatures and from the increased productivity and leaf area of emitting vegetation. Changes in forest species composition that may result from climate change can play a substantial additional role in a region's future emissions. Changes in forest area or area planted in woody biofuels in general are not noticeable in the overall European forest isoprene budget, but--as was the case for changes in species composition--may substantially affect future projections in some regions of the continent.     

氮沉降对森林生态系统碳吸存的影响

工业化带来的大气氮沉降增加是影响森林生态系统碳吸存的重要因素。将森林碳库分为地上和地下两部分,从3个方面综述了国内外氮沉降对森林生态系统碳吸存影响的研究现状。(1)地上部分:氮限制的温带森林,氮沉降增加了地上部分碳吸存。氮丰富的热带森林,氮沉降对地上部分碳吸存没有影响。过量的氮输入会造成森林死亡率的上升,从而降低地上部分碳吸存。(2)地下部分:相比地上部分研究得少,表现为增加、降低和没有影响3种效果。(3)目前的结论趋向于认为氮沉降促进森林生态系统碳吸存,然而氮沉降所带来的森林生态系统碳吸存能力到底有多大依然无法确定,这也将成为未来氮碳循环研究的重点问题。分析了氮沉降影响森林生态系统碳吸存的机理,介绍了氮沉降对森林生态系统碳吸存影响的4种研究方法。探讨了该领域研究的不足及未来的研究方向。     

贺兰山地区植被固碳功能空间分异特征及其驱动因素

贺兰山作为守护西北生态安全的最后一道屏障,既遏制了腾格里沙漠的东移,又削弱了西北寒流的侵扰,其植被功能对于维护区域气候变化和北方干旱荒漠带生态安全具有重要意义。以气象、NDVI和植被类型为输入数据,利用CASA模型模拟2000—2020年贺兰山地区NPP值并估算了该地区的植被固碳量,探讨了植被固碳功能的空间分异特征及其主要驱动因子。结果表明：(1)2000—2020年间贺兰山地区植被固碳量显著增加,植被固碳功能得到提升。空间上呈现四周低中间高、西部低东部高、南部低北部高的分布特征;(2)植被固碳量随海拔升高呈现先增后减的趋势,且东西坡差异明显;随着坡度的增加,东西坡植被单位面积固碳量增加;(3)研究区温度、降水及潜在蒸散发对植被固碳的驱动能力有差异性,其中降水为主要驱动因子;贺兰山大部分土地利用类型转换对植被固碳功能的提升有促进作用。本研究以期为贺兰山地区的生态建设提供科学参考。     

Terrestrial carbon storage resulting from CO2 and nitrogen fertilization in temperate grasslands

Abstract. A temperate grassland model has been used to simulate carbon sequestration under various environmental conditions. The results suggest that the CO₂ and nitrogen fertilization that has occurred may contribute appreciably to the so-called missing carbon sink, which it has been suggested must exist to balance the global carbon budget.     

Amazon Basin climate under global warming: the role of the sea surface temperature

The Hadley Centre coupled climate-carbon cycle model (HadCM3LC) predicts loss of the Amazon rainforest in response to future anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. In this study, the atmospheric component of HadCM3LC is used to assess the role of simulated changes in mid-twenty-first century sea surface temperature (SST) in Amazon Basin climate change. When the full HadCM3LC SST anomalies (SSTAs) are used, the atmosphere model reproduces the Amazon Basin climate change exhibited by HadCM3LC, including much of the reduction in Amazon Basin rainfall. This rainfall change is shown to be the combined effect of SSTAs in both the tropical Atlantic and the Pacific, with roughly equal contributions from each basin. The greatest rainfall reduction occurs from May to October, outside of the mature South American monsoon (SAM) season. This dry season response is the combined effect of a more rapid warming of the tropical North Atlantic relative to the south, and warm SSTAs in the tropical east Pacific. Conversely, a weak enhancement of mature SAM season rainfall in response to Atlantic SST change is suppressed by the atmospheric response to Pacific SST. This net wet season response is sufficient to prevent dry season soil moisture deficits from being recharged through the SAM season, leading to a perennial soil moisture reduction and an associated 30% reduction in annual Amazon Basin net primary productivity (NPP). A further 23% NPP reduction occurs in response to a 3.5 degrees C warmer air temperature associated with a global mean SST warming.     

植被类型变化对土壤微生物碳利用效率的影响研究进展

植被类型变化强烈影响着土壤碳循环。土壤微生物碳利用效率（CUE）是微生物将从环境中获取的碳分配给自身生长的比例,是土壤碳循环的综合指标。研究植被类型变化对CUE的影响有助于从微生物视角理解该过程中的土壤碳动态,可以为评估植被类型变化对土壤质量及生态系统碳循环的影响提供基础,具有重要的理论及实际价值。通过系统查阅相关文献,综述了植被类型变化导致的CUE变化情况,以及该过程中影响CUE的因子与机制。目前,相关研究主要涉及以林地、草地和农业用地为起点或终点的植被变化类型。天然林（原生林、次生林）变化为人工林、林地变化为草地后CUE普遍下降,随终点植被的发展CUE可能恢复至起点水平。植被成熟度越高,发生转变时CUE变化越剧烈。植被类型变化以农业用地为起点或终点时,CUE变化方向的不确定性及幅度的变异性均增加。植被类型变化导致的CUE变化主要受到植被、土壤、微生物因子及其交互作用的驱动,指示CUE的指标、采样季节和土层也会一定程度上影响CUE的变化。今后相关研究应采用直接的CUE测定方法,拓宽研究气候区及植被变化类型,关注植被变化过程中CUE变化的土层差异及动态监测,深入对植被类型变化导致的生态环境因子变化与CUE的关系及作用机制的研究。