Plankton response to weakening of the Iberian coastal upwelling

Coastal upwelling regions, which are affected by equatorward‐wind variability, are among the most productive areas of the oceans. It has been suggested that global warming will lead to a general strengthening of coastal upwelling, with important ecological implications and an impact on fisheries. However, in the case of the Iberian upwelling, the long‐term analysis of climatological variables described here reveals a weakening in coastal upwelling. This is linked to a decrease of zonal sea level pressure gradient, and correlated with an observed increase of sea surface temperature and North Atlantic Oscillation. Weakening of coastal upwelling has led to quantifiable modifications of the ecosystem. In outer shelf waters a drop in new production over the last 40 years is likely related to the reduction of sardine landings at local harbors. On the other hand, in inner shelf and Ria waters, the observed weakening of upwelling has slowed down the residual circulation that introduces nutrients to the euphotic layer, and has increased the stability of the water column. The drop in nutrient levels has been compensated by an increase of organic matter remineralization. The phytoplankton community has responded to those environmental trends with an increase in the percentage of dinoflagellates and Pseudonitzschia spp. and a reduction in total diatoms. The former favors the proliferation of harmful algal blooms and reduces the permitted harvesting period for the mussel aquaculture industry. The demise of the sardine fishery and the potential threat to the mussel culture could have serious socio‐economic consequences for the region.     

Risks of ocean acidification in the California Current food web and fisheries: ecosystem model projections

The benefits and ecosystem services that humans derive from the oceans are threatened by numerous global change stressors, one of which is ocean acidification. Here, we describe the effects of ocean acidification on an upwelling system that already experiences inherently low pH conditions, the California Current. We used an end‐to‐end ecosystem model (Atlantis), forced by downscaled global climate models and informed by a meta‐analysis of the pH sensitivities of local taxa, to investigate the direct and indirect effects of future pH on biomass and fisheries revenues. Our model projects a 0.2‐unit drop in pH during the summer upwelling season from 2013 to 2063, which results in wide‐ranging magnitudes of effects across guilds and functional groups. The most dramatic direct effects of future pH may be expected on epibenthic invertebrates (crabs, shrimps, benthic grazers, benthic detritivores, bivalves), and strong indirect effects expected on some demersal fish, sharks, and epibenthic invertebrates (Dungeness crab) because they consume species known to be sensitive to changing pH. The model's pelagic community, including marine mammals and seabirds, was much less influenced by future pH. Some functional groups were less affected to changing pH in the model than might be expected from experimental studies in the empirical literature due to high population productivity (e.g., copepods, pteropods). Model results suggest strong effects of reduced pH on nearshore state‐managed invertebrate fisheries, but modest effects on the groundfish fishery because individual groundfish species exhibited diverse responses to changing pH. Our results provide a set of projections that generally support and build upon previous findings and set the stage for hypotheses to guide future modeling and experimental analysis on the effects of OA on marine ecosystems and fisheries.     

Winter and summer upwelling modes and their biological importance in the California Current Ecosystem

Analysis of monthly coastal upwelling intensities revealed two seasonal and biologically relevant upwelling ‘modes’ in the California Current Ecosystem (CCE). The first mode reflected upwelling during the summer months and was characterized by low‐frequency (multidecadal) processes, including significant (P<0.01) linear trends at some latitudes. In contrast, the second mode reflected wintertime upwelling and was defined by higher‐frequency variability associated with the North Pacific High and El Niño Southern Oscillation events. These modes were compared with multidecadal time series of splitnose rockfish (Sebastes diploproa) otolith growth, yelloweye rockfish (S. ruberrimus) otolith growth, Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) scale growth, and indices of Cassin's auklet (Ptychoramphus aleuticus) and common murre (Uria aalge) reproduction in the central‐northern CCE. In redundancy and correlation analyses, salmon growth and Cassin's auklet fledgling success associated with the summer upwelling mode while all other time series associated with the winter upwelling mode, indicating that CCE biology was differentially sensitive to these seasonal upwelling patterns. Thus, upwelling occurred in unrelated seasonal modes with contrasting trends, atmospheric forcing mechanisms, and impacts on the biology of the CCE, underscoring the importance of seasonality when evaluating ecosystem response to climate variability and change.     

Broad‐scale ecological implications of ectothermy and endothermy in changing environments

Aim Physiology is emerging as a basis for understanding the distribution and diversity of organisms, and ultimately for predicting their responses to climate change. Here we review how the difference in physiology of terrestrial vertebrate ectotherms (amphibians and reptiles) and endotherms (birds and mammals) is expected to influence broad‐scale ecological patterns. Location Global terrestrial ecosystems. Methods We use data from the literature and modelling to analyse geographic gradients in energy use and thermal limits. We then compare broad‐scale ecological patterns for both groups with expectations stemming from these geographic gradients. Results The differences in thermal physiology between ectotherms and endotherms result in geographically disparate macrophysiological constraints. Field metabolic rate (FMR) is stable or decreases slightly with temperature for endotherms, while it generally increases for ectotherms, leading to opposing latitudinal gradients of expected FMR. Potential activity time is a greater constraint on the distributions of ectotherms than endotherms, particularly at high latitudes. Differences in the primary correlates of abundance and species richness for two representative taxonomic groups are consistent with the consequences of these basic physiological differences. Ectotherm richness is better predicted by temperature, whereas endotherm richness is more strongly associated with primary productivity. Finally, in contrast to endotherms, ectotherm richness is not strongly related to abundance. Main conclusions Differences in thermal physiology affect how organisms interact with and are constrained by their environment, and may ultimately explain differences in the geographic pattern of biodiversity for endotherms and ectotherms. Linking the fields of physiological and broad‐scale ecology should yield a more mechanistic understanding of how biodiversity will respond to environmental change.     

Climate‐change impacts on sandy‐beach biota: crossing a line in the sand

Sandy ocean beaches are iconic assets that provide irreplaceable ecosystem services to society. Despite their great socioeconomic importance, beaches as ecosystems are severely under‐represented in the literature on climate‐change ecology. Here, we redress this imbalance by examining whether beach biota have been observed to respond to recent climate change in ways that are consistent with expectations under climate change. We base our assessments on evidence coming from case studies on beach invertebrates in South America and on sea turtles globally. Surprisingly, we find that observational evidence for climate‐change responses in beach biota is more convincing for invertebrates than for highly charismatic turtles. This asymmetry is paradoxical given the better theoretical understanding of the mechanisms by which turtles are likely to respond to changes in climate. Regardless of this disparity, knowledge of the unique attributes of beach systems can complement our detection of climate‐change impacts on sandy‐shore invertebrates to add rigor to studies of climate‐change ecology for sandy beaches. To this end, we combine theory from beach ecology and climate‐change ecology to put forward a suite of predictive hypotheses regarding climate impacts on beaches and to suggest ways that these can be tested. Addressing these hypotheses could significantly advance both beach and climate‐change ecology, thereby progressing understanding of how future climate change will impact coastal ecosystems more generally.     

Greenhouse gas,upwelling‐favorable winds,and the future of coastal ocean upwelling ecosystems

Coastal ocean upwelling ecosystems generally represent the most productive large marine ecosystems of the world's oceans, in terms of both primary production rates and tonnages of exploitable fish produced. The Peruvian upwelling system, in particular, stands out as a major factor in world fish production. The Pacific trade winds have traditionally been considered to be the primary driving force for the upwelling system off Peru, but are projected to weaken as climate change proceeds. This leads to concern that the upwelling process in the Peru system, to which its productivity is linked, may likewise weaken. However, other mechanisms involving greenhouse‐associated intensification of thermal low‐pressure cells over the coastal landmasses of upwelling regions suggest general intensification of wind‐driven ocean upwelling in coastal upwelling regions of the world's oceans. But although certain empirical results have supported this expectation, it has not been consistently corroborated in climate model simulations, possibly because the scale of the coastal intensification may be small relative to the scales that are appropriately reflected in the standard models. Here we summarize available evidence for the intensification mechanism and present a proxy test that uses variations in water vapor, the dominant natural greenhouse gas, to offer multiple‐realization empirical evidence for action of the proposed mechanism in the real world situation. While many potential consequences to the future of marine ecosystems would codepend on climate change‐related changes in the thermocline and nutricline structures, an important subset, involving potential increased propensities for hypoxia, noxious gas eruptions, toxic red tide blooms, and/or jellyfish outbreaks, may depend more directly on changes in the upwelling‐favorable wind itself. A prospective role of fisheries in either mitigating or reinforcing this particular class of effects is suggested.     

Climate‐driven substitution of habitat‐forming species leads to reduced biodiversity within a temperate marine community

Aim

In marine ecosystems, habitat‐forming species (HFS) such as reef‐building corals and canopy‐forming macroalgae alter local environmental conditions and can promote biodiversity by providing biogenic living space for a vast array of associated organisms. We examined community‐level impacts of observed climate‐driven shifts in the relative abundances of two superficially similar HFS, the warm‐water kelp Laminaria ochroleuca and the cool‐water kelp Laminaria hyperborea.

Location

Western English Channel, north‐east Atlantic

Methods

We compared algal and invertebrate assemblages associated with kelp stipes and holdfasts, across multiple sites and sampling events. Significant differences were recorded in the structure of assemblages between the host kelp species at each site and event.

Results

Assemblages associated with stipes of the cool‐water HFS were, on average, >12 times more diverse and supported >3600 times more biomass compared with the warm‐water HFS. Holdfast assemblages also differed significantly between species, although to a lesser extent than those associated with stipes. Overall, assemblages associated with the warm‐water HFS were markedly impoverished and comprised far fewer rare or unique taxa.

Main conclusions

While previous research has shown how climate‐driven loss of HFS can cause biodiversity loss, our study demonstrates that climate‐driven substitutions of HFS can also lead to impoverished assemblages. The indirect effects of climate change remain poorly resolved, but shifts in the distributions and abundances of HFS may invoke widespread ecological change, especially in marine ecosystems where facilitative interactions are particularly strong.     

Climate‐driven body‐size trends in the ostracod fauna of the deep Indian Ocean

Abstract: Body size is a common focus of macroevolutionary, macroecological and palaeontological investigations. Here, we document body‐size evolution in 19 species‐level ostracod lineages from the deep Indian Ocean (Deep Sea Drilling Program Site 253) over the past 40 myr. Body‐size trajectories vary across taxa and time intervals, but most lineages (16/19) show net gains in body size. Because many modern ostracod taxa are larger in colder parts of their geographical range, we compared the timing and magnitude of these size changes to established Cenozoic deep‐water cooling patterns confirmed through δ¹⁸O measurements of benthic foraminifera in the samples studied. These data show a significant negative correlation between size changes and temperature changes (ostracods get larger as temperatures get colder), and that systematic size increases only occur during intervals of sustained cooling. In addition, statistical support for an explicit temperature‐tracking model exceeds that of purely directional evolution. We argue that this Cope’s Rule pattern is driven by secular changes in the environment, rather than any universal or intrinsic advantages to larger body sizes, and we note some difficulties in the attempts to link Cope’s Rule to observations made within a single generation.     

Climate‐driven ecological stability as a globally shared cause of Late Quaternary megafaunal extinctions: the Plaids and Stripes Hypothesis

Controversy persists about why so many large‐bodied mammal species went extinct around the end of the last ice age. Resolving this is important for understanding extinction processes in general, for assessing the ecological roles of humans, and for conserving remaining megafaunal species, many of which are endangered today. Here we explore an integrative hypothesis that asserts that an underlying cause of Late Quaternary megafaunal extinctions was a fundamental shift in the spatio‐temporal fabric of ecosystems worldwide. This shift was triggered by the loss of the millennial‐scale climate fluctuations that were characteristic of the ice age but ceased approximately 11700 years ago on most continents. Under ice‐age conditions, which prevailed for much of the preceding 2.6 Ma, these radical and rapid climate changes prevented many ecosystems from fully equilibrating with their contemporary climates. Instead of today's ‘striped’ world in which species' ranges have equilibrated with gradients of temperature, moisture, and seasonality, the ice‐age world was a disequilibrial ‘plaid’ in which species' ranges shifted rapidly and repeatedly over time and space, rarely catching up with contemporary climate. In the transient ecosystems that resulted, certain physiological, anatomical, and ecological attributes shared by megafaunal species pre‐adapted them for success. These traits included greater metabolic and locomotory efficiency, increased resistance to starvation, longer life spans, greater sensory ranges, and the ability to be nomadic or migratory. When the plaid world of the ice age ended, many of the advantages of being large were either lost or became disadvantages. For instance in a striped world, the low population densities and slow reproductive rates associated with large body size reduced the resiliency of megafaunal species to population bottlenecks. As the ice age ended, the downsides of being large in striped environments lowered the extinction thresholds of megafauna worldwide, which then increased the vulnerability of individual species to a variety of proximate threats they had previously tolerated, such as human predation, competition with other species, and habitat loss. For many megafaunal species, the plaid‐to‐stripes transition may have been near the base of a hierarchy of extinction causes whose relative importances varied geographically, temporally, and taxonomically.     

Ecosystem response to earlier ice break‐up date: Climate‐driven changes to water temperature,lake‐habitat‐specific production,and trout habitat and resource use

Climate warming has yielded earlier ice break‐up dates in recent decades for lakes leading to water temperature increases, altered habitat, and both increases and decreases to ecosystem productivity. Within lakes, the effect of climate warming on secondary production in littoral and pelagic habitats remains unclear. The intersection of changing habitat productivity and warming water temperatures on salmonids is important for understanding how climate warming will impact mountain ecosystems. We develop and test a conceptual model that expresses how earlier ice break‐up dates influence within lake habitat production, water temperatures and the habitat utilized by, resources obtained and behavior of salmonids in a mountain lake. We measured zoobenthic and zooplankton production from the littoral and pelagic habitats, thermal conditions, and the habitat use, resource use, and fitness of Brook Trout (Salvelinus fontinalis). We show that earlier ice break‐up conditions created a "resource‐rich" littoral–benthic habitat with increases in zoobenthic production compared to the pelagic habitat which decreased in zooplankton production. Despite the increases in littoral–benthic food resources, trout did not utilize littoral habitat or zoobenthic resources due to longer durations of warm water temperatures in the littoral zone. In addition, 87% of their resources were supported by the pelagic habitat during periods with earlier ice break‐up when pelagic resources were least abundant. The decreased reliance on littoral–benthic resources during earlier ice break‐up caused reduced fitness (mean reduction of 12 g) to trout. Our data show that changes to ice break‐up drive multi‐directional results for resource production within lake habitats and increase the duration of warmer water temperatures in food‐rich littoral habitats. The increased duration of warmer littoral water temperatures reduces the use of energetically efficient habitats culminating in decreased trout fitness.     

Zooplankton species composition is linked to ocean transport in the Northern California Current

In the Northern California Current (NCC), zooplankton communities show interannual and multiyear shifts in species dominance that are tracked by survival of salmon populations. These zooplankton community changes correlate with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index: a ‘warm‐water’ copepod species group is more abundant during warm (positive) phases of the PDO and less abundant during cold (negative) phases; the reverse occurs for a ‘cold‐water’ species group. The observed relationship led to the hypothesis that the relative dominance of warm/cold‐water copepods in the NCC is driven by changes in the horizontal advection of surface water over different phases of the PDO. To test this hypothesis, variation in surface water advection to coastal regions of the NCC over the period of 1950–2008 was investigated using a Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) and passive tracer experiments, then was compared with zooplankton collected off Oregon since 1996. Results showed that surface water advection varied with the phase of the PDO; the low‐frequency component of advection anomalies strongly correlated with copepod species composition (R>0.9). During positive phases of the PDO, current anomalies were northward and onshore, resulting in transport of warmer waters and the associated copepods into the region. During negatives phases, increased equatorward current anomalies led to a copepod community that was dominated by cold‐water taxa. Our results support the hypothesis that climate‐driven changes in basin‐scale circulation controls copepod community composition in the NCC, and demonstrate that large‐scale climate forcings downscale to influence local and regional ecosystem structure.     

Embryo and early larval stages of the Humboldt Current krill Euphausia mucronata (Crustacea: Euphausiacea)

The Humboldt Current krill, Euphausia mucronata (Crustacea: Euphausiacea), is an endemic and keystone species in the food web of this highly productive eastern border current ecosystem. The morphology and ontogeny of E. mucronata is known from calyptopis I to the adult phase, but the embryonic and early‐life stages (nauplius and metanauplius) of this broadcast spawning species are unknown. We describe the morphology and development time of these life stages to complete the knowledge of its life cycle. Embryos were obtained from purple‐gonad gravid females collected off Dichato, central Chile, during November 2012. Eight gravid females (mean=16 mm total length) were incubated in seawater at 12°C under laboratory conditions. The average development time from single‐cell embryos to the metanauplius stage was 2.2 d and hatching occurred between 20 and 25 h. The average growth rate was 0.35 mm d^?1 from the late limb bud to the metanauplius stage (range=0.21–0.48 mm d^?1). Embryos of E. mucronata had a mean chorion diameter of 0.460 mm, embryo diameter of 0.343 mm, and perivitelline space of 0.056 mm. Our biological information reported here constitutes a baseline for future ecological studies on distribution and temporal variability of spawning activity and reproductive strategies of E. mucronata in the highly variable and productive Humboldt Current ecosystem.     

Climate‐driven shifts in the distribution of koala‐browse species from the Last Interglacial to the near future

The koala's Phascolarctos cinereus distribution is currently restricted to eastern and south‐eastern Australia. However, fossil records dating from 70 ± 4 ka (ka = 10³ yr) from south‐western Australia and the Nullarbor Plain are evidence of subpopulation extinctions in the southwest at least after the Last Interglacial (~128–116 ka). We hypothesize that koala sub‐population extinctions resulted from the eastward retraction of the koala's main browse species in response to unsuitable climatic conditions. We further posit a general reduction in the distribution of main koala‐browse trees in the near future in response climate change. We modelled 60 koala‐browse species and constructed a set of correlative species distribution models for five time periods: Last Interglacial (~128–116 ka), Last Glacial Maximum (~23–19 ka), Mid‐Holocene (~7–5 ka), present (interpolations of observed data, representative of 1960–1990), and 2070. We based our projections on five hindcasts and one forecast of climatic variables extracted from WorldClim based on two general circulation models (considering the most pessimistic scenario of high greenhouse‐gas emissions) and topsoil clay fraction. We used 17 dates of koala fossil specimens identified as reliable from 70 (± 4) to 535 (± 49) ka, with the last appearance of koalas at 70 ka in the southwest. The main simulated koala‐browse species were at their greatest modelled extent of suitability during the Last Glacial Maximum, with the greatest loss of koala habitat occurring between the Mid‐Holocene and the present. We predict a similar habitat loss between the present and 2070. The spatial patterns of habitat change support our hypothesis that koala extinctions in the southwest, Nullarbor Plain and central South Australia resulted from the eastward retraction of the dominant koala‐browse species in response to long‐term climate changes. Future climate patterns will likely increase the extinction risk of koalas in their remaining eastern ranges.     

Climate‐driven reduction of genetic variation in plant phenology alters soil communities and nutrient pools

We examined the hypothesis that climate‐driven evolution of plant traits will influence associated soil microbiomes and ecosystem function across the landscape. Using a foundation tree species, Populus angustifolia, observational and common garden approaches, and a base population genetic collection that spans 17 river systems in the western United States, from AZ to MT, we show that (a) as mean annual temperature (MAT) increases, genetic and phenotypic variation for bud break phenology decline; (b) soil microbiomes, soil nitrogen (N), and soil carbon (C) vary in response to MAT and conditioning by trees; and (c) with losses of genetic variation due to warming, population‐level regulation of community and ecosystem functions strengthen. These results demonstrate a relationship between the potential evolutionary response of populations and subsequent shifts in ecosystem function along a large temperature gradient.     

Humpback whale diets respond to variance in ocean climate and ecosystem conditions in the California Current

Large, migratory predators are often cited as sentinel species for ecosystem processes and climate‐related changes, but their utility as indicators is dependent upon an understanding of their response to environmental variability. Documentation of the links between climate variability, ecosystem change and predator dynamics is absent for most top predators. Identifying species that may be useful indicators and elucidating these mechanistic links provides insight into current ecological dynamics and may inform predictions of future ecosystem responses to climatic change. We examine humpback whale response to environmental variability through stable isotope analysis of diet over a dynamic 20‐year period (1993–2012) in the California Current System (CCS). Humpback whale diets captured two major shifts in oceanographic and ecological conditions in the CCS. Isotopic signatures reflect a diet dominated by krill during periods characterized by positive phases of the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), cool sea surface temperature (SST), strong upwelling and high krill biomass. In contrast, humpback whale diets are dominated by schooling fish when the NPGO is negative, SST is warmer, seasonal upwelling is delayed and anchovy and sardine populations display increased biomass and range expansion. These findings demonstrate that humpback whales trophically respond to ecosystem shifts, and as a result, their foraging behavior is a synoptic indicator of oceanographic and ecological conditions across the CCS. Multi‐decadal examination of these sentinel species thus provides insight into biological consequences of interannual climate fluctuations, fundamental to advancing ecosystem predictions related to global climate change.     

Climate‐driven changes to the spatio‐temporal distribution of the parasitic nematode,Haemonchus contortus,in sheep in Europe

Recent climate change has resulted in changes to the phenology and distribution of invertebrates worldwide. Where invertebrates are associated with disease, climate variability and changes in climate may also affect the spatio‐temporal dynamics of disease. Due to its significant impact on sheep production and welfare, the recent increase in diagnoses of ovine haemonchosis caused by the nematode Haemonchus contortus in some temperate regions is particularly concerning. This study is the first to evaluate the impact of climate change on H. contortus at a continental scale. A model of the basic reproductive quotient of macroparasites, Q₀, adapted to H. contortus and extended to incorporate environmental stochasticity and parasite behaviour, was used to simulate Pan‐European spatio‐temporal changes in H. contortus infection pressure under scenarios of climate change. Baseline Q₀ simulations, using historic climate observations, reflected the current distribution of H. contortus in Europe. In northern Europe, the distribution of H. contortus is currently limited by temperatures falling below the development threshold during the winter months and within‐host arrested development is necessary for population persistence over winter. In southern Europe, H. contortus infection pressure is limited during the summer months by increased temperature and decreased moisture. Compared with this baseline, Q₀ simulations driven by a climate model ensemble predicted an increase in H. contortus infection pressure by the 2080s. In northern Europe, a temporal range expansion was predicted as the mean period of transmission increased by 2–3 months. A bimodal seasonal pattern of infection pressure, similar to that currently observed in southern Europe, emerges in northern Europe due to increasing summer temperatures and decreasing moisture. The predicted patterns of change could alter the epidemiology of H. contortus in Europe, affect the future sustainability of contemporary control strategies, and potentially drive local adaptation to climate change in parasite populations.     

Climate‐driven spatial mismatches between British orchards and their pollinators: increased risks of pollination deficits

Understanding how climate change can affect crop‐pollinator systems helps predict potential geographical mismatches between a crop and its pollinators, and therefore identify areas vulnerable to loss of pollination services. We examined the distribution of orchard species (apples, pears, plums and other top fruits) and their pollinators in Great Britain, for present and future climatic conditions projected for 2050 under the SRES A1B Emissions Scenario. We used a relative index of pollinator availability as a proxy for pollination service. At present, there is a large spatial overlap between orchards and their pollinators, but predictions for 2050 revealed that the most suitable areas for orchards corresponded to low pollinator availability. However, we found that pollinator availability may persist in areas currently used for fruit production, which are predicted to provide suboptimal environmental suitability for orchard species in the future. Our results may be used to identify mitigation options to safeguard orchard production against the risk of pollination failure in Great Britain over the next 50 years; for instance, choosing fruit tree varieties that are adapted to future climatic conditions, or boosting wild pollinators through improving landscape resources. Our approach can be readily applied to other regions and crop systems, and expanded to include different climatic scenarios.