Plankton response to weakening of the Iberian coastal upwelling

Coastal upwelling regions, which are affected by equatorward‐wind variability, are among the most productive areas of the oceans. It has been suggested that global warming will lead to a general strengthening of coastal upwelling, with important ecological implications and an impact on fisheries. However, in the case of the Iberian upwelling, the long‐term analysis of climatological variables described here reveals a weakening in coastal upwelling. This is linked to a decrease of zonal sea level pressure gradient, and correlated with an observed increase of sea surface temperature and North Atlantic Oscillation. Weakening of coastal upwelling has led to quantifiable modifications of the ecosystem. In outer shelf waters a drop in new production over the last 40 years is likely related to the reduction of sardine landings at local harbors. On the other hand, in inner shelf and Ria waters, the observed weakening of upwelling has slowed down the residual circulation that introduces nutrients to the euphotic layer, and has increased the stability of the water column. The drop in nutrient levels has been compensated by an increase of organic matter remineralization. The phytoplankton community has responded to those environmental trends with an increase in the percentage of dinoflagellates and Pseudonitzschia spp. and a reduction in total diatoms. The former favors the proliferation of harmful algal blooms and reduces the permitted harvesting period for the mussel aquaculture industry. The demise of the sardine fishery and the potential threat to the mussel culture could have serious socio‐economic consequences for the region.     

Changes in the Range of Some Common Rocky Shore Species in Britain – A Response to Climate Change?

Since the 1990s there has been a period of rapid climate warming in Europe. Long-term broad scale datasets coupled with time series at specific locations for rocky intertidal species dating back to the 1950s have been collected in Britain and Ireland. Resurveys of the original locations in 2001–2003 have been undertaken to identify changes in the biogeographical range and abundance of these species. The results show that some ‘southern’ species including Osilinus lineatus da Costa and Gibbula umbilicalis da Costa have undergone north and north-eastern range extensions. Populations have increased in abundance and adult size has decreased since the previous surveys were conducted. These changes have been synchronous throughout Britain, strongly suggesting that climate is responsible. The use of intertidal species as indicators of climate change is proposed.     

Influence of nutrients and currents on the genomic composition of microbes across an upwelling mosaic

Metagenomic data sets were generated from samples collected along a coastal to open ocean transect between Southern California Bight and California Current waters during a seasonal upwelling event, providing an opportunity to examine the impact of episodic pulses of cold nutrient-rich water into surface ocean microbial communities. The data set consists of ∼5.8 million predicted proteins across seven sites, from three different size classes: 0.1–0.8, 0.8–3.0 and 3.0–200.0 μm. Taxonomic and metabolic analyses suggest that sequences from the 0.1–0.8 μm size class correlated with their position along the upwelling mosaic. However, taxonomic profiles of bacteria from the larger size classes (0.8–200 μm) were less constrained by habitat and characterized by an increase in Cyanobacteria, Bacteroidetes, Flavobacteria and double-stranded DNA viral sequences. Functional annotation of transmembrane proteins indicate that sites comprised of organisms with small genomes have an enrichment of transporters with substrate specificities for amino acids, iron and cadmium, whereas organisms with larger genomes have a higher percentage of transporters for ammonium and potassium. Eukaryotic-type glutamine synthetase (GS) II proteins were identified and taxonomically classified as viral, most closely related to the GSII in Mimivirus, suggesting that marine Mimivirus-like particles may have played a role in the transfer of GSII gene functions. Additionally, a Planctomycete bloom was sampled from one upwelling site providing a rare opportunity to assess the genomic composition of a marine Planctomycete population. The significant correlations observed between genomic properties, community structure and nutrient availability provide insights into habitat-driven dynamics among oligotrophic versus upwelled marine waters adjoining each other spatially.     

Clupeoid Population Variability, the Environment and Satellite Imagery in Coastal Upwelling Systems

Sardine, pilchard and anchovy stocks form the basis of commercially important purse seine fisheries in eastern boundary upwelling regions. High levels of environmentally driven recruitment variability have, however, made them especially difficult to manage. Reliable forecasts of recruitment success would greatly help with the setting of catch quotas prior to each fishing season. Theories of how environmental conditions influence recruitment success, according to survival/mortality of the early life-history stages, can be divided into mechanistic and sythesis theories. Mechanistic theories are concerned with specific physical processes, whereas synthesis theories attempt to unite the various mechanistic processes within a single conceptual framework. Despite the successful testing of some theories, there has been little success in reliably predicting recruitment success from a knowledge of environmental conditions. Possible reasons include the following: non-linearity in the relationship between environmental parameters and recruitment; the poor spatial and temporal resolution of much oceanographic data; the wide range of different factors involved in determining recruitment success; and the choice of environmental index. The recent compilation of time series of satellite images for these regions offers a solution to some of these problems, and in doing so reopens the possibility of finding sufficiently good relationships between environmental conditions and recruitment success for management purposes. In particular, the high resolution of these time series allows for the construction of environmental indices across many different spatial and temporal scales. These time series also open up the possibility of quantifying the behaviour of upwelling systems according to the evolution of their spatial structure through time, using pattern analysis techniques.     

Climatic regime shifts and decadal-scale variability in calanoid copepod populations off southern California

Decadal‐scale climatic regimes and the shifts between them have important impacts on marine ecosystems. Climatic regime shifts have been observed or hypothesized in the North Pacific basin in 1976–77 and 1989. This paper examines long‐term (1951–99) trends in calanoid copepod populations off southern California, and the evidence for responses to regime shifts. Most of the species of calanoid copepod that were analysed underwent one or more step changes during the 49 years covered by the study. All but one of these changes occurred in five periods: the late 1950s, late 1960s, mid‐1970s, early 1980s and around 1990. The late 1960s changes are considered to be artifacts of an increase in sampling depth. Strong El Niño conditions affected California waters during the late 1950s and early 1980s. The step changes of the mid‐1970s and late 1980s to early 1990s may have been responses to regime shifts or other climatic events. 28% of the species and subspecies responded to the 1976–77 event, all increasing in abundance. Another 28% of the copepod categories underwent step changes around 1990, most decreasing. Evidence for regime shifts in the hydrographic variables that were examined is mixed. The 10‐m temperature increased in the mid‐1970s. Abrupt changes in variables around 1990 were short‐lived. However, the population responses around 1990 and to the El Niños of the late 1950s and early 1980s indicate that some species of calanoid copepods may respond on longer time scales to environmental conditions that persist only a few years.     

Changes in pelagic Polychaete assemblages along the California current system

The composition, abundance, species richness and structural changes of the planktonic polychaete assemblages were analysed along a latitudinal transect in the California Current System (California, U.S.A. and Baja California, Mexico). The biological (species and abundance) and physical (temperature and salinity) data were analysed using Principal Component Analysis (PCA). The principal water masses in the survey area were determined. Twenty-four holoplanktonic species belonging to families Alciopidae, Iospilidae, Lopadorhynchidae, Tomopteridae and Typhloscolecidae were identified. Three clear species assemblages were discerned in the PCA results: 1. A `north group' (from Oregon-California border to San Francisco), with relatively high species richness (11) and the highest mean abundance (121 ind. per 500 m<sup>3</sup>) was characterised by Tomopteris septentrionalis, T. planktonis, Plotohelmis tenuis, and Travisiopis lobifera. California Current Water and Subtropical Central Water were present in the area occupied by this assemblage. 2. A `south group' (from off Bahía Magdalena to Cabo San Lucas), with the highest species richness (16), but low mean abundance (37.8 ind. per 500 m³); it included tropical affinity species, such Lopadorhynchus henseni, Tomopteris nationalis, and Travisiopsis dubia. In concordance Surface Equatorial Water was identified in this region. 3. A `transition group' (between the north and south regions) recorded the lowest mean abundance (2.3 ind. per 500 m³) and species richness (9). Only the California Current Water was detected in this area. The spatial pattern of species richness found along of this transect, was at least, partially due to the planktonic productivity distribution in the epipelagic region and the influence of several water masses coming from different directions.     

California Multivariate Ocean Climate Indicator (MOCI) and marine ecosystem dynamics

Marine ecosystems are complex adaptive systems with physical and biological processes operating on multiple spatial and temporal scales. Here, we present an operational regional indicator for California's continental shelf system and investigate its skill in predicting a variety of biological responses across trophic levels. This updated Multivariate Ocean Climate Indicator (MOCI) version 2 includes data that are readily available from the Internet so the indicator can be automatically updated and shared regularly. MOCIv.2 is a simplified version of MOCIv.1, but it captures ocean-climate variability similarly. MOCIv.2 illustrates all major ENSO events that occurred over the past 25 years as well as the phasing and magnitude of the most recent North Pacific marine heat wave, dubbed ‘The Blob’. It also shows differences in the magnitude and timing of ocean-climate variability in different regions off California. MOCIv.2 has skill in nowcasting marine ecosystem dynamics, from zooplankton to top predators, and therefore may be useful in establishing bio-physical relationships important to ecosystem-based fisheries and wildlife management in California.     

How recruitment, intraspecific interactions, and predation control species borders in a tidal estuary

We examined the relative contribution of recruitment, intraspecific species interactions, and predation in controlling the upper intertidal border of the northern acorn barnacle, Semibalanusbalanoides, in a tidal estuary in Maine. We hypothesized that the contracted border at sites that experienced low tidal currents was due to flow-mediated recruitment that resulted in reduced survival due to the absence of neighbor buffering of thermal stress (i.e., positive intraspecific interactions). We tested this hypothesis by manipulating the density of recently settled barnacles and their thermal environment in a field experiment. Counter to our original hypothesis, barnacles with neighbors suffered severe mortality at low-flow sites. When density-dependent predation by the green crab (Carcinusmaenus) was experimentally eliminated, however, we did detect evidence for positive interactions at the low-flow sites but not at the high-flow sites. In spite of the close proximity of the sites, maximum daily rock temperatures at the low-flow sites were slightly, but consistently, greater than those at high-flow sites. Our findings suggest that the upper intertidal border of S. balanoides in the Damariscotta River is limited at low-flow sites by a combination of reduced recruitment, elevated mortality from thermal stress and enhanced predation by green crabs. More generally, our findings highlight how physical stress and predation interact to alter the nature of density-dependent species interactions in natural assemblages. Received: 6 August 1998 / Accepted: 11 October 1998     

Predicting impacts of climate-induced range expansion: an experimental framework and a test involving key grazers on temperate rocky shores

Climate change has strong potential to modify the structure and functioning of ecosystems, but experimental field studies into its effects are rare. On rocky shores, grazing limpets strongly affect ecosystem structure and their distribution in NW Europe is changing in response to climate change. Three limpet species co-occur in SW Britain ( Patella vulgata, Patella ulyssiponensis and Patella depressa ) on open rock and in pools. Shores in Ireland are similar, but currently lack P. depressa . It is anticipated that P. depressa will expand its range into Ireland as the climate warms, but we currently lack an empirical basis to predict the consequences of this change. Recent studies show that increasing abundance of P. depressa on British shores has been accompanied by a decline of P. vulgata suggesting interspecific competition. In this study, a new experimental framework was used to examine the potential for P. depressa to affect P. vulgata on Irish shores. P. vulgata was experimentally transplanted into enclosures on open rock and in pools in both Ireland and Britain. In pools, treatments also included transplanted P. ulyssiponensis to mimic natural assemblages. Growth and mortality of P. vulgata were measured over 6 months with no differences between Ireland and Britain. In Britain, P. vulgata caged in pools with transplanted P. depressa and P. ulyssiponensis showed reduced growth, compared with when caged in pools with P. ulyssiponensis alone. There was no effect of P. depressa on the growth rate of P. vulgata on open rock. Results indicate that if the range of P. depressa extends into Ireland, it would reduce the growth of P. vulgata where it co-occurs with P. ulyssiponensis in pools. The framework used here provides a field-based approach that could be used to examine the impacts of climate-induced range expansions on the structure and functioning of other ecosystems.     

Phenological changes in intertidal con‐specific gastropods in response to climate warming

There is substantial evidence from terrestrial and freshwater systems of species responding to climate change through changes in their phenology. In the marine environment, however, there is less evidence. Using historic (1946–1949) and contemporary (2003–2007) data, collected from rocky shores of south‐west Britain, we investigated the affect of recent climate warming on the reproductive phenology of two con‐specific intertidal limpet grazers, with cool/boreal and warm/lusitanian centres of distribution. Reproductive development in the southern limpet, Patella depressa, has advanced, on average, 10.2 days per decade since the 1940s, with a longer reproductive season and more of the population reproductively active. The peak in the proportion of the population in advanced stages of gonad development was positively correlated with sea surface temperature (SST) in late spring/early summer, which has increased between the 1940s and 2000s. The advance in peak reproductive development of this species is double the average observed for terrestrial and freshwater systems and indicates, along with other studies, that marine species may be responding faster to climate warming. In contrast, the northern limpet, Patella vulgata, has experienced a delay in the timing of its reproductive development (on average 3.3 days per decade), as well as an increase in reproductive failure years and a reduction in the proportion of the population reaching advanced gonad stages. These results are the first to demonstrate a delay in the reproductive development of a cool‐temperate, winter spawner, towards cooler more favourable environmental conditions in response to climate warming. Such a delay in spawning will potentially lead to trophic miss‐matches, resulting in a rapid nonlinear decline of this species.