Carbon outcomes of major land‐cover transitions in SE Asia: great uncertainties and REDD+ policy implications

Policy makers across the tropics propose that carbon finance could provide incentives for forest frontier communities to transition away from swidden agriculture (slash‐and‐burn or shifting cultivation) to other systems that potentially reduce emissions and/or increase carbon sequestration. However, there is little certainty regarding the carbon outcomes of many key land‐use transitions at the center of current policy debates. Our meta‐analysis of over 250 studies reporting above‐ and below‐ground carbon estimates for different land‐use types indicates great uncertainty in the net total ecosystem carbon changes that can be expected from many transitions, including the replacement of various types of swidden agriculture with oil palm, rubber, or some other types of agroforestry systems. These transitions are underway throughout Southeast Asia, and are at the heart of REDD+ debates. Exceptions of unambiguous carbon outcomes are the abandonment of any type of agriculture to allow forest regeneration (a certain positive carbon outcome) and expansion of agriculture into mature forest (a certain negative carbon outcome). With respect to swiddening, our meta‐analysis supports a reassessment of policies that encourage land‐cover conversion away from these [especially long‐fallow] systems to other more cash‐crop‐oriented systems producing ambiguous carbon stock changes – including oil palm and rubber. In some instances, lengthening fallow periods of an existing swidden system may produce substantial carbon benefits, as would conversion from intensely cultivated lands to high‐biomass plantations and some other types of agroforestry. More field studies are needed to provide better data of above‐ and below‐ground carbon stocks before informed recommendations or policy decisions can be made regarding which land‐use regimes optimize or increase carbon sequestration. As some transitions may negatively impact other ecosystem services, food security, and local livelihoods, the entire carbon and noncarbon benefit stream should also be taken into account before prescribing transitions with ambiguous carbon benefits.     

Carbon pools of an intact forest in Gabon

Quantitative and qualitative loss of tropical forests prompted international policy agendas to slow down forest loss through reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD)+, ensuring carbon offset payments to developing countries. So far, many African countries lack reliable forest carbon data and monitoring systems as required by REDD+. In this study, we estimate the carbon stocks of a naturally forested landscape unaffected by direct human impact. We used data collected from 34 plots randomly distributed across the Mount Birougou National Park (690 km²) in southern Gabon. We used tree‐level data on species, diameter, height, species‐specific wood density and carbon fraction as well as site‐level data on dead wood, soil and litter carbon to calculate carbon content in aboveground, belowground, dead wood, soil and litter as 146, 28, 14, 186 and 7 Mg ha^?1, respectively. Results may serve as a benchmark to assess ecosystem carbon loss/gain for the Massif du Chaillu in Gabon and the Republic of Congo, provide field data for remote sensing and also may contribute to establish national monitoring systems.     

Quantifying small‐scale deforestation and forest degradation in African woodlands using radar imagery

Carbon emissions from tropical land‐use change are a major uncertainty in the global carbon cycle. In African woodlands, small‐scale farming and the need for fuel are thought to be reducing vegetation carbon stocks, but quantification of these processes is hindered by the limitations of optical remote sensing and a lack of ground data. Here, we present a method for mapping vegetation carbon stocks and their changes over a 3‐year period in a > 1000 km² region in central Mozambique at 0.06 ha resolution. L‐band synthetic aperture radar imagery and an inventory of 96 plots are combined using regression and bootstrapping to generate biomass maps with known uncertainties. The resultant maps have sufficient accuracy to be capable of detecting changes in forest carbon stocks of as little as 12 MgC ha^?1 over 3 years with 95% confidence. This allows characterization of biomass loss from deforestation and forest degradation at a new level of detail. Total aboveground biomass in the study area was reduced by 6.9 ± 4.6% over 3 years: from 2.13 ± 0.12 TgC in 2007 to 1.98 ± 0.11 TgC in 2010, a loss of 0.15 ± 0.10 TgC. Degradation probably contributed 67% (96.9 ± 91.0 GgC) of the net loss of biomass, but is associated with high uncertainty. The detailed mapping of carbon stock changes quantifies the nature of small‐scale farming. New clearances were on average small (median 0.2 ha) and were often additions to already cleared land. Deforestation events reduced biomass from 33.5 to 11.9 MgC ha^?1 on average_. Contrary to expectations, we did not find evidence that clearances were targeted towards areas of high biomass. Our method is scalable and suitable for monitoring land cover change and vegetation carbon stocks in woodland ecosystems, and can support policy approaches towards reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD).     

Co‐benefits of biodiversity and carbon sequestration from regenerating secondary forests in the Philippine uplands: implications for forest landscape restoration

Shifting cultivation is a widespread practice in tropical forested areas that policy makers often regard as the major cause of forest degradation. Secondary fallow forests regrowing after shifting cultivation are generally not viewed as suitable for biodiversity conservation and carbon retention. Drawing upon our research in the Philippines and other relevant case studies, we compared the biodiversity and carbon sequestration in recovering secondary forests after shifting cultivation to other land uses that commonly follow shifting cultivation. Regenerating secondary forests had higher biodiversity than fast growing timber plantations and other restoration options available in the area. Some old plantations, however, provided carbon benefits comparable the old growth forest, although their biodiversity was less than that of the regenerating forests. Our study demonstrates that secondary forests regrowing after shifting cultivation have a high potential for biodiversity and carbon sequestration co‐benefits, representing an effective strategy for forest management and restoration in countries where they are common and where the forest is an integral part of rural people's livelihoods. We discuss the issues and potential mechanisms through which such dynamic land use can be incorporated into development projects that are currently financing the sustainable management, conservation, and restoration of tropical forests.     

西双版纳地区森林变化碳效应与生态效益评估

减少发展中国家因森林砍伐与森林退化导致的碳排放和保持碳储量(REDD+),不仅能减少因森林砍伐和森林退化造成的碳排放,而且还可以带来其它生态效益,如减缓森林破碎化、保护生物多样性和增强水土保持功能等。以中国的西双版纳地区为研究区域,以毁林最严重的1976—2007年为REDD+基线,基于卫星影像,并结合植被指数,提取了研究区的土地利用变化信息。基于IPCC温室气体清单方法,计算了研究区的森林碳储量变化。在此基础上,对REDD+的碳汇效益和生态效益进行了系统综合评估。结果显示：(1)1976—2007年间天然林碳储量从占总碳储量的78.24%减少至50.52%,这是造成西双版纳地区碳储量减少的主要原因。(2)1976—2007年,天然林的斑块数量和平均最近邻距离分别增加了120.00%和25.21%,平均斑块面积下降了71.98%,说明天然林的破碎化程度加剧。从研究区整体景观格局来看,斑块数量、Shannon多样性指数和Shannon均一性指数分别增加了8.16%、51.39%和34.07%;与此同时,平均斑块面积和景观内聚力指数分别下降了26.26%和2.13%,表明研究区整体景观格局...     

Would protecting tropical forest fragments provide carbon and biodiversity cobenefits under REDD+?

Tropical forests store vast amounts of carbon and are the most biodiverse terrestrial habitats, yet they are being converted and degraded at alarming rates. Given global shortfalls in the budgets required to prevent carbon and biodiversity loss, we need to seek solutions that simultaneously address both issues. Of particular interest are carbon‐based payments under the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) mechanism to also conserve biodiversity at no additional cost. One potential is for REDD+ to protect forest fragments, especially within biomes where contiguous forest cover has diminished dramatically, but we require empirical tests of the strength of any carbon and biodiversity cobenefits in such fragmented systems. Using the globally threatened Atlantic Forest landscape, we measured above‐ground carbon stocks within forest fragments spanning 13 to 23 442 ha in area and with different degrees of isolation. We related these stocks to tree community structure and to the richness and abundance of endemic and IUCN Red‐listed species. We found that increasing fragment size has a positive relationship with above‐ground carbon stock and with abundance of IUCN Red‐listed species and tree community structure. We also found negative relationships between distance from large forest block and tree community structure, endemic species richness and abundance, and IUCN Red‐listed species abundance. These resulted in positive congruence between carbon stocks and Red‐listed species, and the abundance and richness of endemic species, demonstrating vital cobenefits. As such, protecting forest fragments in hotspots of biodiversity, particularly larger fragments and those closest to sources, offers important carbon and biodiversity cobenefits. More generally, our results suggest that macroscale models of cobenefits under REDD+ have likely overlooked key benefits at small scales, indicating the necessity to apply models that include finer‐grained assessments in fragmented landscapes rather than using averaged coarse‐grained cells.     

Opportunities and Challenges for Ecological Restoration within REDD+

The Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) mechanism has the potential to provide the developing nations with significant funding for forest restoration activities that contribute to climate change mitigation, sustainable management, and carbon‐stock enhancement. In order to stimulate and inform discussion on the role of ecological restoration within REDD+, we outline opportunities for and challenges to using science‐based restoration projects and programs to meet REDD+ goals of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and storing carbon in forest ecosystems. Now that the REDD+ mechanism, which is not yet operational, has expanded beyond a sole focus on activities that affect carbon budgets to also include those that enhance ecosystem services and deliver other co‐benefits to biodiversity and communities, forest restoration could play an increasingly important role. However, in many nations, there is a lack of practical tools and guidance for implementing effective restoration projects and programs that will sequester carbon and at the same time improve the integrity and resilience of forest ecosystems. Restoration scientists and practitioners should continue to engage with potential REDD+ donors and recipients to ensure that funding is targeted at projects and programs with ecologically sound designs.     

Conversion from forests to pastures in the Colombian Amazon leads to contrasting soil carbon dynamics depending on land management practices

Strategies to mitigate climate change by reducing deforestation and forest degradation (e.g. REDD+) require country‐ or region‐specific information on temporal changes in forest carbon (C) pools to develop accurate emission factors. The soil C pool is one of the most important C reservoirs, but is rarely included in national forest reference emission levels due to a lack of data. Here, we present the soil organic C (SOC) dynamics along 20 years of forest‐to‐pasture conversion in two subregions with different management practices during pasture establishment in the Colombian Amazon: high‐grazing intensity (HG) and low‐grazing intensity (LG) subregions. We determined the pattern of SOC change resulting from the conversion from forest (C3 plants) to pasture (C4 plants) by analysing total SOC stocks and the natural abundance of the stable isotopes ¹³C along two 20‐year chronosequences identified in each subregion. We also analysed soil N stocks and the natural abundance of ¹⁵N during pasture establishment. In general, total SOC stocks at 30 cm depth in the forest were similar for both subregions, with an average of 47.1 ± 1.8 Mg C ha^?1 in HG and 48.7 ± 3.1 Mg C ha^?1 in LG. However, 20 years after forest‐to‐pasture conversion SOC in HG decreased by 20%, whereas in LG SOC increased by 41%. This net SOC decrease in HG was due to a larger reduction in C3‐derived input and to a comparatively smaller increase in C4‐derived C input. In LG both C3‐ and C4‐derived C input increased along the chronosequence. N stocks were generally similar in both subregions and soil N stock changes during pasture establishment were correlated with SOC changes. These results emphasize the importance of management practices involving low‐grazing intensity in cattle activities to preserve SOC stocks and to reduce C emissions after land‐cover change from forest to pasture in the Colombian Amazon.     

Soil organic carbon stocks in Laos: spatial variations and controlling factors

Surface soils, which contain the largest pool of terrestrial organic carbon (C), may be able to sequester atmospheric C and thus mitigate climate change. However, this remains controversial, largely due to insufficient data and knowledge gaps in respect of organic C contents and stocks in soils and the main factors of their control. Up to now and despite numerous evaluations of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks worldwide, the sloping lands of southeast Asia, one of the most biogeochemically active regions of the world, remain uninvestigated. Our main objective was to quantify SOC stocks and to evaluate the impact of various environmental factors. We, therefore, selected Laos with 230 566 km² of mostly forested steep slopes, and where cultivation is still mainly traditional, i.e. a system of shifting cultivation without fertilization or mechanical tillage. Analytical data from 3471 soil profiles demonstrated that the top 1 m of soil depth holds an estimated 4.64 billion tons of SOC, 65% of which is in the first 0.3 m. SOC stocks to 0.3 m exhibit a high coefficient of variation (CV=62%) with values from 1.8 to 771 Mg C ha^?1 and a mean at 129 Mg C ha^?1. Furthermore, these stocks are significantly (at P<0.05 level) affected by land use as shown by principal components analysis and t‐tests with the largest amount being found under forest, less under shifting cultivation and the smallest under continuous cultivation. Moreover, SOC stocks correlated regionally to total annual rainfalls and latitude, and locally at the hill‐slope level to the distance to the stream network and the slope angle. It is hypothesized that this correlation is through actions on mineral weathering, soil clay content, soil fertility and SOC redistributions in landscapes. These relationships between SOC stocks and environmental factors may be of further use in (1) predicting the impact of global changes on future SOC stocks; and (2) identifying optimal strategies for land use planning so as to minimize soil C emissions to the atmosphere while maximizing carbon sequestration in soils.     

Toward an integrated monitoring framework to assess the effects of tropical forest degradation and recovery on carbon stocks and biodiversity

Tropical forests harbor a significant portion of global biodiversity and are a critical component of the climate system. Reducing deforestation and forest degradation contributes to global climate‐change mitigation efforts, yet emissions and removals from forest dynamics are still poorly quantified. We reviewed the main challenges to estimate changes in carbon stocks and biodiversity due to degradation and recovery of tropical forests, focusing on three main areas: (1) the combination of field surveys and remote sensing; (2) evaluation of biodiversity and carbon values under a unified strategy; and (3) research efforts needed to understand and quantify forest degradation and recovery. The improvement of models and estimates of changes of forest carbon can foster process‐oriented monitoring of forest dynamics, including different variables and using spatially explicit algorithms that account for regional and local differences, such as variation in climate, soil, nutrient content, topography, biodiversity, disturbance history, recovery pathways, and socioeconomic factors. Generating the data for these models requires affordable large‐scale remote‐sensing tools associated with a robust network of field plots that can generate spatially explicit information on a range of variables through time. By combining ecosystem models, multiscale remote sensing, and networks of field plots, we will be able to evaluate forest degradation and recovery and their interactions with biodiversity and carbon cycling. Improving monitoring strategies will allow a better understanding of the role of forest dynamics in climate‐change mitigation, adaptation, and carbon cycle feedbacks, thereby reducing uncertainties in models of the key processes in the carbon cycle, including their impacts on biodiversity, which are fundamental to support forest governance policies, such as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation.     

The potential ecological costs and cobenefits of REDD: a critical review and case study from the Amazon region

The United Nations climate treaty may soon include a mechanism for compensating tropical nations that succeed in reducing carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, source of nearly one fifth of global carbon emissions. We review the potential for this mechanism [reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD)] to provoke ecological damages and promote ecological cobenefits. Nations could potentially participate in REDD by slowing clear‐cutting of mature tropical forest, slowing or decreasing the impact of selective logging, promoting forest regeneration and restoration, and expanding tree plantations. REDD could also foster efforts to reduce the incidence of forest fire. Potential ecological costs include the accelerated loss (through displaced agricultural expansion) of low‐biomass, high‐conservation‐value ecosystems, and substitution of low‐biomass vegetation by monoculture tree plantations. These costs could be avoided through measures that protect low‐biomass native ecosystems. Substantial ecological cobenefits should be conferred under most circumstances, and include the maintenance or restoration of (1) watershed functions, (2) local and regional climate regimes, (3) soils and biogeochemical processes, (4) water quality and aquatic habitat, and (5) terrestrial habitat. Some tools already being developed to monitor, report and verify (MRV) carbon emissions performance can also be used to measure other elements of ecosystem function, making development of MRV systems for ecological cobenefits a concrete possibility. Analysis of possible REDD program interventions in a large‐scale Amazon landscape indicates that even modest flows of forest carbon funding can provide substantial cobenefits for aquatic ecosystems, but that the functional integrity of the landscape's myriad small watersheds would be best protected under a more even spatial distribution of forests. Because of its focus on an ecosystem service with global benefits, REDD could access a large pool of global stakeholders willing to pay to maintain carbon in forests, thereby providing a potential cascade of ecosystem services to local stakeholders who would otherwise be unable to afford them.     

A large‐scale field assessment of carbon stocks in human‐modified tropical forests

Tropical rainforests store enormous amounts of carbon, the protection of which represents a vital component of efforts to mitigate global climate change. Currently, tropical forest conservation, science, policies, and climate mitigation actions focus predominantly on reducing carbon emissions from deforestation alone. However, every year vast areas of the humid tropics are disturbed by selective logging, understory fires, and habitat fragmentation. There is an urgent need to understand the effect of such disturbances on carbon stocks, and how stocks in disturbed forests compare to those found in undisturbed primary forests as well as in regenerating secondary forests. Here, we present the results of the largest field study to date on the impacts of human disturbances on above and belowground carbon stocks in tropical forests. Live vegetation, the largest carbon pool, was extremely sensitive to disturbance: forests that experienced both selective logging and understory fires stored, on average, 40% less aboveground carbon than undisturbed forests and were structurally similar to secondary forests. Edge effects also played an important role in explaining variability in aboveground carbon stocks of disturbed forests. Results indicate a potential rapid recovery of the dead wood and litter carbon pools, while soil stocks (0–30 cm) appeared to be resistant to the effects of logging and fire. Carbon loss and subsequent emissions due to human disturbances remain largely unaccounted for in greenhouse gas inventories, but by comparing our estimates of depleted carbon stocks in disturbed forests with Brazilian government assessments of the total forest area annually disturbed in the Amazon, we show that these emissions could represent up to 40% of the carbon loss from deforestation in the region. We conclude that conservation programs aiming to ensure the long‐term permanence of forest carbon stocks, such as REDD+, will remain limited in their success unless they effectively avoid degradation as well as deforestation.     

Modeling and empirical validation of long‐term carbon sequestration in forests (France, 1850–2015)

The development of appropriate tools to quantify long‐term carbon (C) budgets following forest transitions, that is, shifts from deforestation to afforestation, and to identify their drivers are key issues for forging sustainable land‐based climate‐change mitigation strategies. Here, we develop a new modeling approach, CRAFT (CaRbon Accumulation in ForesTs) based on widely available input data to study the C dynamics in French forests at the regional scale from 1850 to 2015. The model is composed of two interconnected modules which integrate biomass stocks and flows (Module 1) with litter and soil organic C (Module 2) and build upon previously established coupled climate‐vegetation models. Our model allows to develop a comprehensive understanding of forest C dynamics by systematically depicting the integrated impact of environmental changes and land use. Model outputs were compared to empirical data of C stocks in forest biomass and soils, available for recent decades from inventories, and to a long‐term simulation using a bookkeeping model. The CRAFT model reliably simulates the C dynamics during France's forest transition and reproduces C‐fluxes and stocks reported in the forest and soil inventories, in contrast to a widely used bookkeeping model which strictly only depicts C‐fluxes due to wood extraction. Model results show that like in several other industrialized countries, a sharp increase in forest biomass and SOC stocks resulted from forest area expansion and, especially after 1960, from tree growth resulting in vegetation thickening (on average 7.8 Mt C/year over the whole period). The difference between the bookkeeping model, 0.3 Mt C/year in 1850 and 21 Mt C/year in 2015, can be attributed to environmental and land management changes. The CRAFT model opens new grounds for better quantifying long‐term forest C dynamics and investigating the relative effects of land use, land management, and environmental change.     

Soil carbon stocks and land use change: a meta analysis

The effects of land use change on soil carbon stocks are of concern in the context of international policy agendas on greenhouse gas emissions mitigation. This paper reviews the literature for the influence of land use changes on soil C stocks and reports the results of a meta analysis of these data from 74 publications. The meta analysis indicates that soil C stocks decline after land use changes from pasture to plantation (?10%), native forest to plantation (?13%), native forest to crop (?42%), and pasture to crop (?59%). Soil C stocks increase after land use changes from native forest to pasture (+ 8%), crop to pasture (+ 19%), crop to plantation (+ 18%), and crop to secondary forest (+ 53%). Wherever one of the land use changes decreased soil C, the reverse process usually increased soil carbon and vice versa. As the quantity of available data is not large and the methodologies used are diverse, the conclusions drawn must be regarded as working hypotheses from which to design future targeted investigations that broaden the database. Within some land use changes there were, however, sufficient examples to explore the role of other factors contributing to the above conclusions. One outcome of the meta analysis, especially worthy of further investigation in the context of carbon sink strategies for greenhouse gas mitigation, is that broadleaf tree plantations placed onto prior native forest or pastures did not affect soil C stocks whereas pine plantations reduced soil C stocks by 12–15%.     

Assessing the influence of historic net and gross land changes on the carbon fluxes of Europe

Legacy effects of land cover/use on carbon fluxes require considering both present and past land cover/use change dynamics. To assess past land use dynamics, model‐based reconstructions of historic land cover/use are needed. Most historic reconstructions consider only the net area difference between two time steps (net changes) instead of accounting for all area gains and losses (gross changes). Studies about the impact of gross and net land change accounting methods on the carbon balance are still lacking. In this study, we assessed historic changes in carbon in soils for five land cover/use types and of carbon in above‐ground biomass of forests. The assessment focused on Europe for the period 1950 to 2010 with decadal time steps at 1‐km spatial resolution using a bookkeeping approach. To assess the implications of gross land change data, we also used net land changes for comparison. Main contributors to carbon sequestration between 1950 and 2010 were afforestation and cropland abandonment leading to 14.6 PgC sequestered carbon (of which 7.6 PgC was in forest biomass). Sequestration was highest for old‐growth forest areas. A sequestration dip was reached during the 1970s due to changes in forest management practices. Main contributors to carbon emissions were deforestation (1.7 PgC) and stable cropland areas on peaty soils (0.8 PgC). In total, net fluxes summed up to 203 TgC yr^?1 (98 TgC yr^?1 in forest biomass and 105 TgC yr^?1 in soils). For areas that were subject to land changes in both reconstructions (35% of total area), the differences in carbon fluxes were about 68%. Overall for Europe the difference between accounting for either gross or net land changes led to 7% difference (up to 11% per decade) in carbon fluxes with systematically higher fluxes for gross land change data.     

Net change in carbon emissions with increased wood energy use in the United States

Use of wood biomass for energy results in carbon (C) emissions at the time of burning and alters C stocks on the land because of harvest, regrowth, and changes in land use or management. This study evaluates the potential effects of expanded woody biomass energy use (for heat and power) on net C emissions over time. A scenario with increased wood energy use is compared with a dynamic business-as-usual scenario where wood energy use is driven by its historical relationship with gross domestic product. At the national level, we projected that up to 78% of increased cumulative C emissions from increased wood burning and up to 80% of increased cumulative radiative forcing would be offset over 50 years by change in forest area loss, biomass regrowth on land, C storage in harvested wood products, and C in logging slash left in forests. For example, forest area is projected to decline in both scenarios, but 3.5 million hectares more are retained in the high wood energy-use case. Projected C offsets over a 50 year period differed substantially by US region (16% in the North, 50% in the West, and 95% in the South) not only because of differences in forest regrowth and induced investment in retaining and planting forest, but also because of shifts in competitive advantage among regions in producing various wood products. If wood systems displace coal systems that have 75% of the C emissions of wood energy systems per unit energy, then the nationwide net C emissions offset would be reduced to 71–74%. If displacing natural gas systems that have 40% of the level of wood bioenergy emissions per unit energy, the nationwide net C emissions offset would be 46–52%.     

Net Carbon Emissions from Deforestation in Bolivia during 1990-2000 and 2000-2010: Results from a Carbon Bookkeeping Model

Accurate estimates of global carbon emissions are critical for understanding global warming. This paper estimates net carbon emissions from land use change in Bolivia during the periods 1990–2000 and 2000–2010 using a model that takes into account deforestation, forest degradation, forest regrowth, gradual carbon decomposition and accumulation, as well as heterogeneity in both above ground and below ground carbon contents at the 10 by 10 km grid level. The approach permits detailed maps of net emissions by region and type of land cover. We estimate that net CO₂ emissions from land use change in Bolivia increased from about 65 million tons per year during 1990–2000 to about 93 million tons per year during 2000–2010, while CO₂ emissions per capita and per unit of GDP have remained fairly stable over the sample period. If we allow for estimated biomass increases in mature forests, net CO₂ emissions drop to close to zero. Finally, we find these results are robust to alternative methods of calculating emissions.     

Soil carbon stocks,deforestation and land‐cover changes in the Western Ghats biodiversity hotspot (India)

Habitat loss and soil organic carbon (SOC) stock variations linked to land‐cover change were estimated over two decades in the most densely populated biodiversity hotspot in the world, in order to assess the possible influence of conservation practices on the protection of SOC. For a study area of 88 484 km², 70% of which lie inside the Western Ghats Biodiversity Hotspot (WGBH), land‐cover maps for two dates (1977, 1999) were built from various data sources including remote sensing images and ecological forest maps. SOC stocks were calculated from climatic parameters, altitude, physiography, rock type, soil type and land‐cover, with a modelling approach used in predictive learning and based on Multiple Additive Regression Tree. The model was trained on 361 soil profiles data, and applied to estimate SOC stocks from predictor variables using a Geographical Information System (GIS). Comparison of 1977 and 1999 land‐cover maps showed 628 km² of dense forests habitat loss (6%), corresponding to an annual deforestation rate of 0.44%. This was found consistent with other studies carried out in other parts of the WGBH, but not with FAO figures showing an increase in forest area. This could be explained by the different forest definitions used, based on ecological classification in the former, and on percentage tree cover in the latter. Unexpectedly, our results showed that despite ongoing deforestation, overall SOC stock was maintained (～0.43 Pg). But a closer examination of spatial differences showed that soil carbon losses in deforested areas were compensated by sequestration elsewhere, mainly in recent plantations and newly irrigated croplands. This suggests that more carbon sequestration in soils could be achieved in the future through appropriate wasteland management. It is also expected that increasing concerns about biodiversity loss will favour more conservation and reinforce the already prevailing protective measures, thus further maintaining C stocks.     

Effects of harvesting on spatial and temporal diversity of carbon stocks in a boreal forest landscape

Carbon stocks in managed forests of Ontario, Canada, and in harvested wood products originated from these forests were estimated for 2010–2100. Simulations included four future forest harvesting scenarios based on historical harvesting levels (low, average, high, and maximum available) and a no‐harvest scenario. In four harvesting scenarios, forest carbon stocks in Ontario's managed forest were estimated to range from 6202 to 6227 Mt C (millions of tons of carbon) in 2010, and from 6121 to 6428 Mt C by 2100. Inclusion of carbon stored in harvested wood products in use and in landfills changed the projected range in 2100 to 6710–6742 Mt C. For the no‐harvest scenario, forest carbon stocks were projected to change from 6246 Mt C in 2010 to 6680 Mt C in 2100. Spatial variation in projected forest carbon stocks was strongly related to changes in forest age (r = 0.603), but had weak correlation with harvesting rates. For all managed forests in Ontario combined, projected carbon stocks in combined forest and harvested wood products converged to within 2% difference by 2100. The results suggest that harvesting in the boreal forest, if applied within limits of sustainable forest management, will eventually have a relatively small effect on long‐term combined forest and wood products carbon stocks. However, there was a large time lag to approach carbon equality, with more than 90 years with a net reduction in stored carbon in harvested forests plus wood products compared to nonharvested boreal forest which also has low rates of natural disturbance. The eventual near equivalency of carbon stocks in nonharvested forest and forest that is harvested and protected from natural disturbance reflects both the accumulation of carbon in harvested wood products and the relatively young age at which boreal forest stands undergo natural succession in the absence of disturbance.     

Post‐Soviet farmland abandonment,forest recovery,and carbon sequestration in western Ukraine

Land use is a critical factor in the global carbon cycle, but land‐use effects on carbon fluxes are poorly understood in many regions. One such region is Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, where land‐use intensity decreased substantially after the collapse of socialism, and farmland abandonment and forest expansion have been widespread. Our goal was to examine how land‐use trends affected net carbon fluxes in western Ukraine (57 000 km²) and to assess the region's future carbon sequestration potential. Using satellite‐based forest disturbance and farmland abandonment rates from 1988 to 2007, historic forest resource statistics, and a carbon bookkeeping model, we reconstructed carbon fluxes from land use in the 20th century and assessed potential future carbon fluxes until 2100 for a range of forest expansion and logging scenarios. Our results suggested that the low‐point in forest cover occurred in the 1920s. Forest expansion between 1930 and 1970 turned the region from a carbon source to a sink, despite intensive logging during socialism. The collapse of the Soviet Union created a vast, but currently largely untapped carbon sequestration potential (up to～150 Tg C in our study region). Future forest expansion will likely maintain or even increase the region's current sink strength of 1.48 Tg C yr^?1. This may offer substantial opportunities for offsetting industrial carbon emissions and for rural development in regions with otherwise diminishing income opportunities. Throughout Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, millions of hectares of farmland were abandoned after the collapse of socialism; thus similar reforestation opportunities may exist in other parts of this region.