Olive phenology as a sensitive indicator of future climatic warming in the Mediterranean

Experimental and modelling work suggests a strong dependence of olive flowering date on spring temperatures. Since airborne pollen concentrations reflect the flowering phenology of olive populations within a radius of 50 km, they may be a sensitive regional indicator of climatic warming. We assessed this potential sensitivity with phenology models fitted to flowering dates inferred from maximum airborne pollen data. Of four models tested, a thermal time model gave the best fit for Montpellier, France, and was the most effective at the regional scale, providing reasonable predictions for 10 sites in the western Mediterranean. This model was forced with replicated future temperature simulations for the western Mediterranean from a coupled ocean‐atmosphere general circulation model (GCM). The GCM temperatures rose by 4·5 °C between 1990 and 2099 with a 1% per year increase in greenhouse gases, and modelled flowering date advanced at a rate of 6·2 d per °C. The results indicated that this long‐term regional trend in phenology might be statistically significant as early as 2030, but with marked spatial variation in magnitude, with the calculated flowering date between the 1990s and 2030s advancing by 3–23 d. Future monitoring of airborne olive pollen may therefore provide an early biological indicator of climatic warming in the Mediterranean.     

Seasonal weather patterns drive population vital rates and persistence in a stream fish

Climate change affects seasonal weather patterns, but little is known about the relative importance of seasonal weather patterns on animal population vital rates. Even when such information exists, data are typically only available from intensive fieldwork (e.g., mark–recapture studies) at a limited spatial extent. Here, we investigated effects of seasonal air temperature and precipitation (fall, winter, and spring) on survival and recruitment of brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) at a broad spatial scale using a novel stage‐structured population model. The data were a 15‐year record of brook trout abundance from 72 sites distributed across a 170‐km‐long mountain range in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia, USA. Population vital rates responded differently to weather and site‐specific conditions. Specifically, young‐of‐year survival was most strongly affected by spring temperature, adult survival by elevation and per‐capita recruitment by winter precipitation. Low fall precipitation and high winter precipitation, the latter of which is predicted to increase under climate change for the study region, had the strongest negative effects on trout populations. Simulations show that trout abundance could be greatly reduced under constant high winter precipitation, consistent with the expected effects of gravel‐scouring flows on eggs and newly hatched individuals. However, high‐elevation sites would be less vulnerable to local extinction because they supported higher adult survival. Furthermore, the majority of brook trout populations are projected to persist if high winter precipitation occurs only intermittently (≤3 of 5 years) due to density‐dependent recruitment. Variable drivers of vital rates should be commonly found in animal populations characterized by ontogenetic changes in habitat, and such stage‐structured effects may increase population persistence to changing climate by not affecting all life stages simultaneously. Yet, our results also demonstrate that weather patterns during seemingly less consequential seasons (e.g., winter precipitation) can have major impacts on animal population dynamics.     

The influence of potential predators on the habitat preferenda of emerging brown trout

Much research has focused on the developmental behaviour of fish and it has been shown that their sensory and physical capabilities evolve very quickly during their early life. Thus, ontogenesis could influence fishes preferences for particular environmental factors. Little is known about the habitat preferences of trout during the post-emergence phase and it is not known if they correspond to the preference curves established by the PHABSIM method for the' alevin phase'. Here, the downstream movement and habitat preferences of young emerging trout were studied in a flume. In the absence of predators, alevins preferred a water depth of 20 to 30 cm and pebble rather than gravel substratum. When emergence occurred in an area with 1⁺ trout and sculpin, Cottus gobio , almost all the emergent trout remained cryptic. When visible, most of them were in the shallowest area (10cm depth) where their preference for pebble substratum was less marked. The presence of 1⁺ trout and sculpin increased the movement downstream of young trout by 20% without changing the general and diel patterns of catches. Their presence also reduced the initial growth of 0⁺ trout.     

Thermal dependence of swimming endurance in juvenile brown trout

The maximum swimming stamina of hatchery reared juvenile brown trout Salmo trutta , swimming against a fixed-velocity water flow of 36·6 cm s^-1 (6·97 L s^-1), was achieved at 16·1° C, and a 90% performance level occurred over a breadth of 7·7° C (12·2–19·9° C). The wide range of temperatures at which swimming performance is close to the maximal capacity could be a consequence of the implications for survival of this function.     

Thermal growth performance of juvenile brown trout Salmo trutta: no support for thermal adaptation hypotheses

Using thermal growth data from eight populations of anadromous and lake-feeding brown trout Salmo trutta , hypotheses of adaptation to local optima and countergradient variation in growth were tested. The adaptation to local optima hypothesis suggests that natural selection can shift optimal performance temperatures to match the prevailing temperature in a new or changed thermal niche. In contradiction, the countergradient variation hypothesis suggests that populations from hostile environments perform better than conspecifics from benign environments at all temperatures. In this study, growth capacity varied between populations but there was no significant correlation between any of the estimated thermal performance parameters ( e.g. lower and upper thermal growth limits, optimal temperature for growth and maximum growth capacity) and natural climatic conditions among populations. Hence, S. trutta growth response to temperature lends no support for either of the two suggested thermal adaptation hypotheses. Instead, growth capacity among populations tended to correlate positively with female size at maturity.     

pH preference and avoidance responses of adult brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis and brown trout Salmo trutta

The pH preferred and avoided by wild, adult brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis and brown trout Salmo trutta was examined in a series a laboratory tests using gradual and steep‐gradient flow‐through aquaria. The results were compared with those published for the observed segregation patterns of juvenile S. fontinalis and S. trutta in Pennsylvania streams. The adult S. trutta tested showed a preference for pH 4·0 while adult S. fontinalis did not prefer any pH within the range tested. Salmo trutta are not found in Pennsylvania streams with a base‐flow pH < 5·8 which suggests that S. trutta prefer pH well above 4·0. Adult S. trutta displayed a lack of avoidance at pH below 5·0, as also reported earlier for juveniles. The avoidance pH of wild, adult S. fontinalis (between pH 5·5 and 6·0) and S. trutta (between pH 6·5 and 7·0) did not differ appreciably from earlier study results for the avoidance pH of juvenile S. fontinalis and S. trutta. A comparison of c.i. around these avoidance estimates indicates that avoidance pH is similar among adult S. fontinalis and S. trutta in this study. The limited overlap of c.i. for avoidance pH values for the two species, however, suggests that some S. trutta will display avoidance at a higher pH when S. fontinalis will not. The results of this study indicate that segregation patterns of adult S. fontinalis and S. trutta in Pennsylvania streams could be related to pH and that competition with S. trutta could be mediating the occurrence of S. fontinalis at some pH levels.     

Seasonal temperature and precipitation regulate brook trout young‐of‐the‐year abundance and population dynamics

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Daily energy intake and growth of piscivorous brown trout,Salmo trutta

• 1 The chief objectives were to determine the daily energy intake and growth of piscivorous brown trout (Salmo trutta), and to compare the observed values with those expected from models developed previously for brown trout feeding on freshwater invertebrates. Energy budgets for individual fish were obtained from experiments with 40 trout (initial live weight 250–318 g) bred from wild parents, and kept at five constant temperatures (5, 10, 13, 15, 18 °C) and 100% oxygen saturation. Each trout was fed to satiation on freshly killed sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus) over a period of 42 days.
• 2 Energy intake (C_IN cal day^‐1) and growth (C_G cal day^‐1) were measured directly and energy losses (C_Q cal day^‐1) were estimated by difference (C_Q = C_IN ‐ C_G). All three variables increased with temperature. A model previously used to predict the daily energy intake (C_IN(INV)) of trout feeding to satiation on invertebrates was adapted, by changing only one parameter, to provide an excellent model (R² = 0.998) for predicting the mean daily energy intake (C_IN(ST)) for the piscivorous trout. Values of C_IN(ST) were 58% (range 48–67%) higher than those for C_IN(INV). A simple model was also developed to estimate mean daily energy losses for piscivorous trout (R² = 0.999). Both models were combined to provide excellent estimates of the daily energy gain (growth) of the piscivorous trout, and this was about three times that for trout feeding on invertebrates. The optimum temperature for maximum growth in energy terms increased from 13.9 °C for trout feeding on invertebrates to 17.0 °C (range 16.6–17.4 °C) for piscivorous trout.
• 3 The models are basically an extension of those developed for trout feeding on invertebrates. They show clearly how energy intake, growth, and the optimum temperature for growth increase markedly when trout change their diet from invertebrates to fish. The implications of this are discussed and it is shown that, in theory, these increases should continue if a more energy‐rich diet was utilised by the trout.

     

Global warming and excess nitrogen may induce butterfly decline by microclimatic cooling

Global warming may explain the current poleward shift of species distributions. However, paradoxically, climatic warming can lead to microclimatic cooling in spring by advancing plant growth, an effect worsened by excess nitrogen. We suggest that spring-developing but thermophilous organisms, such as butterflies hibernating as egg or larva, are particularly sensitive to the cooling of microclimates. Using published data on butterfly trends in distribution, we report a comparatively greater decline in egg–larva hibernators in European countries with oceanic climates and high nitrogen deposition, which supports this explanation. Furthermore, trends in abundance from a nationwide butterfly monitoring scheme reveal a 63% decrease over 13 years (1992–2004) for egg–larva hibernators in the Netherlands, contrasting with a nonsignificant trend in adult–pupa hibernators. This evidence supports the hypothesis that these environmental changes pose new threats to spring-developing, thermophilous species. We underline the threat of climate change to biodiversity, as previously suggested on the basis of mobility, habitat fragmentation and evolutionary adaptation, but we here emphasize a different ecological axis of change in habitat quality.     

Global warming enhances sulphide stress in a key seagrass species (NW Mediterranean)

The build‐up of sulphide concentrations in sediments, resulting from high inputs of organic matter and the mineralization through sulphate reduction, can be lethal to the benthos. Sulphate reduction is temperature dependent, thus global warming may contribute to even higher sulphide concentrations and benthos mortality. The seagrass Posidonia oceanica is very sensitive to sulphide stress. Hence, if concentrations build up with global warming, this key Mediterranean species could be seriously endangered. An 8‐year monitoring of daily seawater temperature, the sulphur isotopic signatures of water (δ³⁴S_water), sediment (δ³⁴S_CRS) and P. oceanica leaf tissue (δ³⁴S_leaves), along with total sulphur in leaves (TS_leaves) and annual net population growth along the coast of the Balearic archipelago (Western Mediterranean) allowed us to determine if warming triggers P. oceanica sulphide stress and constrains seagrass survival. From the isotopic S signatures, we estimated sulphide intrusion into the leaves (F_sulphide) and sulphur incorporation into the leaves from sedimentary sulphides (SS_leaves). We observed lower δ³⁴S_leaves, higher F_sulphide and SS_leaves coinciding with a 6‐year period when two heat waves were recorded. Warming triggered sulphide stress as evidenced by the negative temperature dependence of δ³⁴S_leaves and the positive one of F_sulphide, TS_leaves and SS_leaves. Lower P. oceanica net population growth rates were directly related to higher contents of TS_leaves. At equivalent annual maximum sea surface water temperature (SST_max), deep meadows were less affected by sulphide intrusion than shallow ones. Thus, water depth acts as a protecting mechanism against sulphide intrusion. However, water depth would be insufficient to buffer seagrass sulphide stress triggered by Mediterranean seawater summer temperatures projected for the end of the 21st century even under scenarios of moderate greenhouse gas emissions, A1B. Mediterranean warming, therefore, is expected to enhance P. oceanica sulphide stress, and thus compromise the survival of this key habitat along its entire depth distribution range.     

Recruitment variability of resident brown trout in peripheral populations from southern Europe

1. Population regulation was studied for seven consecutive years (1992–98) in five rivers at the periphery of the distribution of Salmo trutta, where the fish were living under environmental constraints quite different from those of the main distribution area. 2. Recruitment is naturally highly variable and the populations had been earlier classified as overexploited. Thus we expected that densities of young trout in most populations would be too low for density‐dependent mortality to operate. We tested this by fitting the abundance of recruits to egg densities over seven consecutive years (stock–recruitment relationship), and used the results to judge whether exploitation should be restricted in the interests of conserving the populations. 3. The density of 0+ trout in early September, as well as the initial density of eggs and parents, varied greatly among localities and years. The data for all populations fitted the Ricker stock–recruitment model. The proportion of variance explained by the population curves varied between 32% and 51%. However, in most cases the observations were in the density‐independent part of the stock–recruitment curve, where densities of the recruits increased proportionally with egg densities. 4. Our findings suggest that recruitment densities in most rivers and years were below the carrying capacity of the habitats. Although density‐dependent mechanisms seemed to regulate fish abundance in some cases, environmental factors and harvesting appeared generally to preclude populations from reaching densities high enough for negative feedbacks to operate. The findings thus lend support to Haldane’s (1956) second hypothesis that changes in population density are primarily due to density‐independent factors in unfavourable areas and areas with low density due to exploitation. Exploitation should be reduced to allow natural selection to operate more effectively.     

Changes in seasonal climate outpace compensatory density‐dependence in eastern brook trout

Understanding how multiple extrinsic (density‐independent) factors and intrinsic (density‐dependent) mechanisms influence population dynamics has become increasingly urgent in the face of rapidly changing climates. It is particularly unclear how multiple extrinsic factors with contrasting effects among seasons are related to declines in population numbers and changes in mean body size and whether there is a strong role for density‐dependence. The primary goal of this study was to identify the roles of seasonal variation in climate driven environmental direct effects (mean stream flow and temperature) vs. density‐dependence on population size and mean body size in eastern brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis). We use data from a 10‐year capture‐mark‐recapture study of eastern brook trout in four streams in Western Massachusetts, USA to parameterize a discrete‐time population projection model. The model integrates matrix modeling techniques used to characterize discrete population structures (age, habitat type, and season) with integral projection models (IPMs) that characterize demographic rates as continuous functions of organismal traits (in this case body size). Using both stochastic and deterministic analyses we show that decreases in population size are due to changes in stream flow and temperature and that these changes are larger than what can be compensated for through density‐dependent responses. We also show that the declines are due mostly to increasing mean stream temperatures decreasing the survival of the youngest age class. In contrast, increases in mean body size over the same period are the result of indirect changes in density with a lesser direct role of climate‐driven environmental change.     

An experimental study of ontogenetic and seasonal changes in the temperature preferences of unfed and fed brown trout,Salmo trutta

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Interacting effects of temperature and density on individual growth performance in a wild population of brown trout

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Consequences of climatic change for water temperature and brown trout populations in Alpine rivers and streams

Twenty‐five years of extensive water temperature data show regionally coherent warming to have occurred in Alpine rivers and streams at all altitudes, reflecting changes in regional air temperature. Much of this warming occurred abruptly in 1987/1988. For brown trout populations, the warming resulted in an upward shift in thermal habitat that was accelerated by an increase in the incidence of temperature‐dependent Proliferative Kidney Disease at the habitat's lower boundary. Because physical barriers restrict longitudinal migration in mountain regions, an upward habitat shift in effect implies habitat reduction, suggesting the likelihood of an overall population decrease. Extensive brown trout catch data documenting an altitudinally dependent decline indicate that such a climate‐related population decrease has in fact occurred. Our analysis employs a quantitatively defined reference optimum temperature range for brown trout, based on the sinusoidal regression of seasonally varying field data.     

Warm winters and cool springs negatively influence recruitment of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) in a southern England chalk stream

Previous work suggests that juvenile salmon recruitment in rain-fed rivers is negatively influenced by warm and wet winters and cool springs. We tested whether this is generally applicable to a southern England chalk stream characterized by comparatively stable discharges and temperatures. We found that warm spawning and cool emergence temperatures negatively influenced juvenile recruitment between 2015 and 2020. Together these findings suggest an ability to predict juvenile productivity from water temperature records around spawning and fry emergence, thereby allowing time for management interventions in years of unfavourable temperatures.     

Global warming and chromosomal inversion adaptation in isolated islands: Drosophila subobscura populations from Madeira

Global warming is an environmental phenomenon to which species must adapt to survive. Drosophila subobscura presents an adaptive capacity due to its chromosomal inversion polymorphism. Until now, the impact of global warming on this polymorphism has been studied in D. subobscura populations located either on a continental mainland or on islands not far from a continent. In this context, gene flow could be a relevant mechanism allowing the movement of thermally adapted inversions between populations. Our aim was to sample and study the chromosomal polymorphism on Madeira, a small isolated island in the Atlantic Ocean. We compared our findings with those reported in the same location approximately four and five decades ago. Moreover, we studied whether global warming has occurred on this island by analyzing mean, maximum and minimum temperatures over a 55‐year period. All atmospheric parameters have increased significantly, consistent with climate change expectations. Frequencies and chromosomal thermal index values of thermal adapted inversions remained quite stable over years. Furthermore, J, U and O chromosomes are almost fixed for “warm” adapted inversions. Thus, if there is little genetic variability remaining and temperatures continue increasing, island populations of D. subobscura might be on the threshold of endangerment. However, apart from selection, genetic drift and inbreeding, other processes, such as phenotypic plasticity or thermoregulatory behavior, could be involved in the survival of the species’ populations. Finally, although in danger, D. subobscura is a generalist that lives in humanized environments, and this fact could favor its persistence on Madeira Island.     

Global warming triggers the loss of a key Arctic refugium

We document the rapid transformation of one of the Earth''s last remaining Arctic refugia, a change that is being driven by global warming. In stark contrast to the amplified warming observed throughout much of the Arctic, the Hudson Bay Lowlands (HBL) of subarctic Canada has maintained cool temperatures, largely due to the counteracting effects of persistent sea ice. However, since the mid-1990s, climate of the HBL has passed a tipping point, the pace and magnitude of which is exceptional even by Arctic standards, exceeding the range of regional long-term variability. Using high-resolution, palaeolimnological records of algal remains in dated lake sediment cores, we report that, within this short period of intense warming, striking biological changes have occurred in the region''s freshwater ecosystems. The delayed and intense warming in this remote region provides a natural observatory for testing ecosystem resilience under a rapidly changing climate, in the absence of direct anthropogenic influences. The environmental repercussions of this climate change are of global significance, influencing the huge store of carbon in the region''s extensive peatlands, the world''s southern-most polar bear population that depends upon Hudson Bay sea ice and permafrost for survival, and native communities who rely on this landscape for sustenance.