Lesser Scaup Breeding Probability and Female Survival on the Yukon Flats,Alaska

ABSTRACT Information on the ecology of waterfowl breeding in the boreal forest is lacking, despite the boreal region's importance to continental waterfowl populations and to duck species that are currently declining, such as lesser scaup (Aythya affinis). We estimated breeding probability and breeding season survival of female lesser scaup on the Yukon Flats National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska, USA, in 2005 and 2006. We captured and marked 93 lesser scaup with radiotransmitters during prelaying and nesting periods. Although all marked lesser scaup females were paired throughout prelaying and incubation periods, we estimated breeding probability over both years as 0.12 (SE = 0.05, n = 67) using telemetry. Proportion of lesser scaup females undergoing rapid follicle growth at capture in 2006 was 0.46 (SE = 0.11, n = 37), based on concentration of yolk precursors in blood plasma. By combining methods based on telemetry, yolk precursors, and postovulatory follicles, we estimated maximum breeding probability as 0.68 (SE = 0.08, n = 37) in 2006. Notably, breeding probability was positively related to female body mass. Survival of female lesser scaup during the nesting and brood-rearing periods was 0.92 (SE = 0.05) in 2005 and 0.86 (SE = 0.08) in 2006. Our results suggest that breeding probability is lower than expected for lesser scaup. In addition, the implicit assumption of continental duck-monitoring programs that all paired females attempt to breed should be reevaluated. Recruitment estimates based on annual breeding-pair surveys may overestimate productivity of scaup pairs in the boreal forest.     

Early springs and breeding performance in two sympatric duck species with different migration strategies

The capacity of migratory species to adapt to climate change may depend on their migratory and reproductive strategies. For example, reproductive output is likely to be influenced by how well migration and nesting are timed to temporal patterns of food abundance, or by temperature variations during the brood rearing phase. Based on two decades (1988–2009) of waterfowl counts from a boreal catchment in southern Finland we assessed how variation in ice break‐up date affected nesting phenology and breeding success in two sympatric duck species, Mallard Anas platyrhynchos and Eurasian Teal Anas crecca. In Fennoscandia these species have similar breeding habitat requirements but differ in migration distance; Teal migrate roughly seven times as far as do Mallard. Annual ice break‐up date was used as a proxy of spring ‘earliness’ to test the potential effect of climate change on hatching timing and breeding performance. Both species were capable of adapting their nesting phenology, and bred earlier in years when spring was early. However, the interval from ice break‐up to hatching tended to be longer in early springs in both species, so that broods hatched relatively later than in late springs. Ice break‐up date did not appear to influence annual number of broods per pair or annual mean brood size in either species. Our study therefore does not suggest that breeding performance in Teal and Mallard is negatively affected by advancement of ice break‐up at the population level. However, both species showed a within‐season decline in brood size with increasing interval between ice break‐up and hatching. Our study therefore highlights a disparity between individuals in their capacity to adjust to ice break‐up date, late breeders having a lower breeding success than early breeders. We speculate that breeding success of both species may therefore decline should a consistent trend towards earlier springs occur.     

Annual survival in female white-winged scoters and lesser scaup

Quantifying survival and understanding underlying sources of variation are important for developing population models and informing management decisions. We estimated apparent survival (i.e., true survival less permanent emigration) for adult female white-winged scoters (Melanitta fusca) and lesser scaup (Aythya affinis) breeding at a northern boreal forest site in western Canada, 2002–2008. We also evaluated variation in survival relative to indices of breeding status, individual quality, spring weather conditions, local small-mammal abundance, and overwinter climate. Breeding female scoters had higher apparent survival than did nonbreeding females, suggesting that breeders had higher survival or fidelity to the study area, or that more nonbreeders were transient birds that may have bred elsewhere in subsequent years. Apparent survival rate for breeding female scoters was unrelated to other individual and environmental covariates. Nest-trapped female scaup had higher apparent survival rates than did prenesting females captured in decoy traps, implying that more pre-nesters dispersed permanently or died after marking. Nesting female scaup with higher body condition or those in years when small mammals were more abundant had higher apparent survival; associations between survival and other environmental covariates were less certain. Overall, apparent survival rate of breeding adult female scoters was lower than reported for scoters from other North American locations or for other sea duck species, whereas estimates for nesting female scaup were comparable with those from other boreal and prairie-parkland locations. Our results indicate that for scaup in this region, factors influencing female body condition, such as maintaining high-quality habitat, areas with abundant food or low disturbance, could improve annual survival. © The Wildlife Society, 2019     

Coast to coast: High genomic connectivity in North American scoters

Dispersal shapes demographic processes and therefore is fundamental to understanding biological, ecological, and evolutionary processes acting within populations. However, assessing population connectivity in scoters (Melanitta sp.) is challenging as these species have large spatial distributions that span remote landscapes, have varying nesting distributions (disjunct vs. continuous), exhibit unknown levels of dispersal, and vary in the timing of the formation of pair bonds (winter vs. fall/spring migration) that may influence the distribution of genetic diversity. Here, we used double‐digest restriction‐associated DNA sequence (ddRAD) and microsatellite genotype data to assess population structure within the three North American species of scoter (black scoter, M. americana; white‐winged scoter, M. deglandi; surf scoter, M. perspicillata), and between their European congeners (common scoter, M. nigra; velvet scoter, M. fusca). We uncovered no or weak genomic structure (ddRAD Φ_ST < 0.019; microsatellite F_ST < 0.004) within North America but high levels of structure among European congeners (ddRAD Φ_ST > 0.155, microsatellite F_ST > 0.086). The pattern of limited genomic structure within North America is shared with other sea duck species and is often attributed to male‐biased dispersal. Further, migratory tendencies (east vs. west) of female surf and white‐winged scoters in central Canada are known to vary across years, providing additional opportunities for intracontinental dispersal and a mechanism for the maintenance of genomic connectivity across North America. In contrast, the black scoter had relatively elevated levels of divergence between Alaska and Atlantic sites and a second genetic cluster found in Alaska at ddRAD loci was concordant with its disjunct breeding distribution suggestive of a dispersal barrier (behavioral or physical). Although scoter populations appear to be connected through a dispersal network, a small percentage (<4%) of ddRAD loci had elevated divergence which may be useful in linking areas (nesting, molting, staging, and wintering) throughout the annual cycle.     

Waterfowl distribution and productivity in the Prairie Pothole Region of Canada: tools for conservation planning

Species conservation requires an understanding of the factors and interactions affecting species distribution and behavior, habitat availability and use, and corresponding vital rates at multiple temporal and spatial scales. Opportunities to investigate these relationships across broad geographic regions are rare. We combined long-term waterfowl population surveys, and studies of habitat use and breeding success, to develop models that identify and incorporate these interactions for upland-nesting waterfowl in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of Canada. Specifically, we used data from the annual Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey (1961–2009) at the survey segment level and associated habitat covariates to model and map the long-term average duck density across the Canadian PPR. We analyzed nest location and fate data from approximately 25,000 duck nests found during 3 multi-year nesting studies (1994–2011) to model factors associated with nest survival and habitat selection through the nesting season for the 5 most common upland nesting duck species: mallard (Anas platyrhynchos), gadwall (Mareca strepera), blue-winged teal (Spatula discors), northern shoveler (Spatula clypeata), and northern pintail (Anas acuta). Duck density was highly variable across the Canadian PPR, reflecting positive responses to local wetland area and count, and amounts of cropland and grassland, a regional positive response to latitude, and a negative response to local amounts of tree cover. Nest survival was affected by temporal and spatial variables at multiple scales. Specifically, nest survival demonstrated interactive effects among species, nest initiation date, and nesting cover type and was influenced by relative annual wetness, population density, and surrounding landscape composition at landscape scales, and broad geographic gradients (east-west and north-south). Likewise, species-specific probability of nest habitat selection was influenced by timing of nest initiation, population density, relative annual wetness, herbaceous cover, and tree cover in the surrounding landscape, and location within the Canadian PPR. We combined these models, with estimates of breeding effort (nesting, renesting, and nest attempts) from existing literature, in a stochastic conservation planning model that estimates nest distribution and success given spatiotemporal variation in duck density, habitat availability, and influential covariates. We demonstrate the use of this model by examining various conservation planning scenarios. These models allow estimation of local, landscape, and regional influence of conservation investments and other landscape changes on the productivity of breeding duck populations across the PPR of Canada. These models lay the groundwork for the incorporation of conservation delivery costs for full return-on-investment analyses and scenario analyses of climate, habitat, and land use change in regional and continental population models.     

Variation in the Diet of Ducks During Spring Migration

Because management practices that promote the production of plant foods may differ from management practices that promote the production of aquatic invertebrates, a thorough understanding of the diet is needed to develop management strategies for various stages of the annual cycle for dabbling and diving ducks. Diet of dabbling (tribe Anatini) and diving (tribe Aythyini) ducks during breeding, autumn migration, and winter has been documented. Our goal was to estimate and compare the diet of blue-winged teal (Spatula discors), gadwall (Mareca strepera), mallard (Anas platyrhyncos), lesser scaup (Aythya affinis), and ring-necked duck (Aythya collaris) during spring migration in the Mississippi Flyway in the United States and evaluate variation among species. We collected 919 ducks for diet analysis from multiple wetlands at 6 sites across 4 states during the spring migration of 2006 and 2007. We collected ≥10 individuals of each species at each of the 6 study sites except we collected only 1 gadwall at the Scioto River site and 2 lesser scaup at the Cache River site. We detected that the proportion of plant and animal material in foods of each spring migrating duck species was in general intermediate of that found in wintering and breeding birds. Furthermore, the proportion of plant and animal material in the diet of species varied even among closely related species, indicating species are partitioning food sources along a protein-carbohydrate gradient during spring migration. We recommend that resources for ducks be managed to provide diverse wetlands to support the varied diets of even closely related species. © 2021 The Wildlife Society.     

Microhabitat nest‐site selection by ducks in the boreal forest

The boreal forest is one of the North America’s most important breeding areas for ducks, but information about the nesting ecology of ducks in the region is limited. We collected microhabitat data related to vegetation structure and composition at 157 duck nests and paired random locations in Alberta’s boreal forest region from 2016 to 2018. We identified fine‐scale vegetation features selected by ducks for all nests, between nesting guilds, and among five species using conditional logistic regression. Ducks in the boreal forest selected nest sites with greater overhead and graminoid cover, but less forb cover than random sites. Characteristics of the nest sites of upland‐ and overwater‐nesting guilds differed, with species nesting in upland habitat selecting nests that provided greater shrub cover and less lateral concealment and species nesting over water selecting nests with less shrub cover. We examined the characteristics of nest sites of American Wigeon (Mareca americana), Blue‐winged Teal (Spatula discors), Green‐winged Teal (Anas crecca), Mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), and Ring‐necked Ducks (Aythya collaris), and found differences among species that may facilitate species coexistence at a regional scale. Our results suggest that females of species nesting in upland habitat selected nest sites that optimized concealment from aerial predators while also allowing detection of and escape from terrestrial predators. Consequently, alteration in the composition and heterogeneity of vegetation and predator communities caused by climate change and industrial development in the boreal forest of Canada may affect the nest‐site selection strategies of boreal ducks.     

Breeding success of sympatric dabbling ducks in relation to population density and food resources

Breeding success in sympatric mallard Anas platyrhynchos , teal A. crecca and wigeon A. penelope in a boreal watershed in Finland was studied for 12 years. Benthic and surface-emerging prey animals were trapped to obtain annual indices of food abundance. Mallard and teal were equally abundant over the years, being roughly twice as numerous as wigeon.
Pair density, brood:pair ratio and duckling:pair ratio were used to test the hypothesis that per capita breeding success decreases in a density-dependent fashion as either pair density or the number of nesting pairs per available food unit increases. In mallard we found no density-dependent patterns at all. In teal per capita brood production decreased as prey animals became relatively scarcer, but this interpretation may not be robust. In wigeon, however, there were two independent significant patterns of direct density-dependence in a temporal succession, i.e. between pair density and per capita brood production in the early part of the breeding season, and then between per capita abundance of surface-emerging insect prey and the number of ducklings per pair. Despite wide dietary overlap and frequent co-occurrence on single lakes among species in the guild, we found no evidence for interspecific density-dependent effects. We hypothesize that there is no or infrequent food limitation for breeding dabblers in this system, and that behavior may be the process behind the pattern of density-dependence in wigeon.     

Lesser Scaup Nest Success and Duckling Survival on the Yukon Flats,Alaska

Abstract: Over the last 20 years scaup numbers have declined, and these declines have been greatest in the northern boreal forests of Canada and Alaska where most lesser scaup (Aythya affinis) nest. We studied nest success and duckling survival of lesser scaup over 3 field seasons, 2001–2003, on the Yukon Flats National Wildlife Refuge in northeastern Alaska, USA. Daily survival rate (DSR) of nests on our study area across all 3 years was 0.943 (n = 177 nests, 95% CI: 0.930–0.954), corresponding to a nest success of only 12.3%, considerably lower than published estimates of an average nest success as high as 57% for lesser scaup in the northern boreal forest. With Mayfield logistic regression, we investigated effects on nest survival of year, clutch initiation date, and nesting habitat type (large wetlands >10 ha, small wetlands <10 ha, and wooded creeks). Neither year nor clutch initiation date influenced nest survival; however, the odds of nest success on large wetlands was 49% lower than on wooded creeks (odds ratio = 0.512, 95% CI = 0.286, 0.918). Based on the model that used only habitat type for estimation, DSR on large wetlands was 0.931 (corresponding nest success = 7.6%), DSR on small wetlands was 0.941 (nest success = 11.1%), and DSR on wooded creeks was 0.963 (nest success = 26.2%). To estimate duckling survival, we monitored 10 broods (n = 75 ducklings) over 3 field seasons by radiotagging hens at nest hatch. Most duckling mortality (94%) occurred in the first 10 days after hatch. Average duckling survival during 1–10 days was 0.321 (95% CI: 0.122–0.772), during 11–20 days was 0.996 (95% CI: 0.891–1.040), and during 21–30 days was 0.923 (95% CI: 0.769–1.041). Three of 10 hens moved all or part of their broods overland between nesting and brood-rearing wetlands for distances of 0.3–1.6 km. Our estimates of lesser scaup nest success and duckling survival on the Yukon Flats were among the lowest ever reported for ducks nesting at northern latitudes, even though the study site was in pristine boreal forest. Estimating and comparing scaup demographic rates from different geographic areas can contribute to improved conservation. Given the scarcity of information on scaup nesting in the boreal forest, basic nesting parameters are important to those trying to model scaup population dynamics.     

Time constraints in temperate‐breeding species: influence of growing season length on reproductive strategies

Organisms that reproduce in temperate regions have limited time to produce offspring successfully, and this constraint is expected to be more pronounced in areas with short growing seasons. Information concerning how reproductive ecology of endotherms might be influenced by growing season length (GSL) is rare, and species that breed over a broad geographic range provide an opportunity to study the effects of time constraints on reproductive strategies. We analyzed data from a temperate‐breeding bird, the lesser scaup Aythya affinis; hereafter scaup, collected at eight sites across a broad gradient of GSL to evaluate three hypotheses related to reproductive compensation in response to varying time constraints. Clutch initiation date in scaup was unaffected by GSL and was unrelated to latitude; spring thaw dates had a marginal impact on timing of breeding. Clutch size declined during the nesting season, as is reported frequently in bird species, but was also unaffected by GSL. Scaup do not appear to compensate for shorter growing seasons by more rapidly reducing clutch size. This study demonstrates that this species is remarkably consistent in terms of timing of breeding and clutch size, regardless of growing season characteristics. Such inflexibility could make this species particularly sensitive to environmental changes that affect resource availabilities.     

The dilemma of where to nest: influence of spring snow cover,food proximity and predator abundance on reproductive success of an arctic-breeding migratory herbivore is dependent on nesting habitat choice

Pink-footed geese Anser brachyrhynchus nest in two contrasting but commonly found habitats: steep cliffs and open tundra slopes. In Svalbard, we compared nest densities and nesting success in these two environments over ten breeding seasons to assess the impact of spring snow cover, food availability to nesting adults and arctic fox Vulpes lagopus (main terrestrial predator) abundance. In years with extensive spring snow cover, fewer geese at both colonies attempted to breed, possibly because snow cover limited pre-nesting feeding opportunities, leaving adults in poor breeding condition. Nesting success at the steep cliff colony was lower with extensive spring snow cover; such conditions force birds to commit to repeated and prolonged recess periods at far distant feeding areas, leaving nests open to predation. By contrast, nesting success at the open tundra slope was not affected by spring snow cover; even if birds were apparently in poor condition they could feed immediately adjacent to their nests and defend them from predators. Foxes were the main nest predator in the open tundra slopes but avian predators likely had a larger impact at the steep cliffs colony. Thus, the relative inaccessibility of the cliffs habitat may bring protection from foxes but also deprives geese from readily accessing feeding areas, with the best prospects for successful nesting in low spring snow cover years. Our findings indicate that spring snow cover, predator abundance and food proximity did not uniformly influence nesting success of this herbivore, and their effects were dependent on nesting habitat choice.     

Effects of snow cover on the timing and success of reproduction in high-Arctic pink-footed geese <Emphasis Type="Italic">Anser brachyrhynchus</Emphasis>

During four breeding seasons, 2003–2006, we studied the relationship between snow cover and nesting performance in pink-footed geese (Anser brachyrhynchus) in a key breeding site on Svalbard. Snow cover in late May, i.e., at the time of egg laying of geese, was derived from MODIS satellite images. Snow cover had a profound cascading effect on reproductive output via the number of nesting pairs and timing of nesting, which affected nest success, while there was only a tendency for a negative effect on clutch size. Hence, we estimated a five-fold difference in the number of young produced (to post-hatching) between years with little snow and years with high snow cover. The results from the study area correlated with whole-population productivity estimates recorded in autumn. Thus, snow cover derived from MODIS satellite images appears to provide a useful indicator of the breeding conditions in the Arctic.     

Warming climate advances breeding and improves synchrony of food demand and food availability in a boreal passerine

Global climate change affects ecosystems via several trophic levels. We investigated changes in the timing of breeding in the willow tit (Poecile montanus) and timing of its caterpillar food resource in relation to warming springs in a boreal forest. We used generalized linear mixed effect models to study the importance of synchrony between the timing of breeding in willow tits and the caterpillar food availability on the breeding success, measured as nestling survival rate and mean nestling weight. Both the timing of breeding and the timing of the caterpillar peak advanced during the last decades, and were well explained by spring temperatures. Unlike in most passerine populations studied, synchrony has improved with rising spring temperatures. However, it had only a modest although statistically significant positive influence on breeding success. Spring temperatures do not seem to be used as cues for the timing of caterpillar food availability by willow tits. We conclude that responses to climatic warming seem to be population, species and habitat specific, necessitating research in a wide range of taxa in different climatic zones.     

Hatching in dabbling ducks and emergence in chironomids: a case of predator–prey synchrony?

It has been hypothesized that dabbling ducks (Anas spp.) time breeding to coincide with annual regional peaks in emerging dipterans, especially Chironomidae, which are important prey for newly hatched ducklings. However, this hypothesis has never been evaluated in a replicated lake-level study, including year effects in emergence patterns. We collected duck and invertebrate data from 12 lakes during the nesting seasons 1989–1994 in a watershed in southern Finland. The oligotrophic study lakes are typical of the boreal Holarctic, as are the three focal duck species: mallard Anas platyrhynchos L., widgeon Anas penelope L and teal Anas crecca L. Hatching of ducklings showed a clear peak in relation to ambient phenology (annual ice-out date of lakes), whereas chironomid emergence was more erratic and showed no clear peak at the lake level, although total watershed-level emergence was somewhat higher before and long after the duck hatching peak. Thus, we find no evidence that ducklings hatch in synchrony with abundance peaks of emerging chironomids. There was large within-year temporal variation in chironomid emergence among lakes, but this was not correlated with ambient temperature. The rank of individual lakes with respect to the abundance of emerging chironomids was consistent among as well as within years, a predictability that ought to make adaptive lake choice by ducks possible. On the lake level, there was a positive correlation between the total amount of emerging chironomids and brood use. We argue that emergence patterns of chironomids on typical boreal lakes are neither compressed nor predictable enough to be a major selective force on the timing of egg-laying and hatching in dabbling ducks. Despite spatial (among-lake) patterns of abundance of emerging chironomids being predictable within and among years, the observed pattern of brood use suggests that other factors, e.g. habitat structure, also affect lake choice.     

Comparisons of nine heavy metals in salt gland and liver of greater scaup (Aythya marila), black duck (Anas rubripes) and mallard (A. platyrhynchos)

Levels of nine heavy metals were measured in the livers and salt glands of greater scaup (Aythya marila), black duck (Anas rubripes) and mallard (A. platyrhynchos) from Raritan Bay, New Jersey to determine if the functioning avian salt gland concentrates heavy metals. Heavy metals examined were cadmium, cobalt, chromium, copper, lead, mercury, manganese, nickel and zinc. Heavy metal levels varied significantly by species and tissue for chromium, copper, lead, and manganese, and by tissue for cobalt, mercury, nickel and zinc. In comparing tissues cobalt was higher in the salt glands than in livers of all three species; chromium and nickel were higher in the salt gland than liver for mallard and black duck; and lead, manganese and zinc were higher in the liver than the salt gland in greater scaup. Generally metal levels were higher in the salt gland for mallard and black duck, and in the liver for greater scaup.     

Endogenous contributions to egg protein formation in lesser scaup Aythya affinis

Lesser scaup Aythya affinis populations have declined throughout the North American continent for the last three decades. It has been hypothesized that the loss and degradation of staging habitats has resulted in reduced female body condition on the breeding grounds and a concomitant decline in productivity. We explored the importance of body (endogenous) reserves obtained prior to arrival on the breeding ground in egg protein formation in southwestern Montana during 2006–2008 using stable‐carbon (δ¹³C) and nitrogen (δ¹⁵N) isotope analyses of scaup egg components, female tissue, and local prey items. From arrival on the breeding grounds through the egg‐laying period, δ¹⁵N values of scaup red blood cells decreased while δ¹³C values became less variable; a pattern consistent with endogenous tissues equilibrating with local (freshwater) dietary sources. In 2006 and 2008, isotopic values for egg albumen and yolk protein indicated that most (>90%) protein used to produce these components was obtained on the breeding grounds. However, in 2007, a year with an exceptionally warm and dry spring, endogenous reserves contributed on average 41% of yolk and 29% of albumen. Results from this study suggest that female scaup can meet the protein needs of egg production largely from local dietary food sources. This highlights the importance of providing high‐quality breeding habitats for scaup. Whether this pattern holds in areas with similar breeding season lengths but longer migration routes, such as those found in the western boreal forest, should be investigated.     

Resource partitioning in sympatric arctic-breeding geese: summer habitat use, spatial and dietary overlap of Barnacle and Pink-footed Geese in Svalbard

The spatial, habitat and dietary overlap of two breeding goose species was studied in Sassendalen, Svalbard, in summer 2003 based on abundance within 500 × 500‐m grid squares and faecal diet analyses during pre‐breeding, nesting and post‐hatching periods. More than half of all Pink‐footed Geese Anser brachyrhynchus occurred in the absence of Barnacle Geese Branta leucopsis during nesting and post‐hatching periods compared to c. 20% when concentrated by pre‐breeding snow cover. In contrast, only 5% of Barnacle Geese were observed in the absence of Pink‐footed Geese pre‐breeding, 15% during nesting, and 35% post‐hatching. Among six defined habitat types, Barnacle Geese resorted more to ‘upland’ habitats during pre‐breeding and nesting and to lowland lakes post‐hatching when compared to Pink‐footed Geese. Although Pink‐footed Geese showed less change in seasonal habitat preference, many shifted to the river valley bottom post‐hatching, giving access to open water (predator avoidance) and lush green vegetation (foraging for goslings). The smallest extent of distributional overlap between the two species occurred post‐hatching, but each species was also highly restricted by snow cover during pre‐nesting. The greatest extent of overlap in distribution and diet occurred during incubation, when large dietary variation between different breeding valleys reflected local food availability around nests (probably a result of nest‐site preference rather than food selection per se). Whether this means that increased interactions within and between the two goose species with future increases in local density are most likely to be manifest at this stage of the summer is impossible to determine without knowledge of available food resources and manipulative experiments. More detailed investigations of the effects of foraging by both species on plant structure, quality and community composition are necessary to predict likely outcomes of future changes in population densities of both species.     

Breeding dispersal in a heterogeneous landscape: the influence of habitat and nesting success in greater snow geese

Despite numerous studies on breeding dispersal, it is still unclear how habitat heterogeneity and previous nesting success interact to determine nest-site fidelity at various spatial scales. In this context, we investigated factors affecting breeding dispersal in greater snow geese (Anser caerulescens atlanticus), an Arctic breeding species nesting in two contrasting habitats (wetlands and mesic tundra) with variable pattern of snowmelt at the time of settlement in spring. From 1994 to 2005, we monitored the nesting success and breeding dispersal of individually marked females. We found that snow geese showed a moderate amount of nest-site fidelity and considerable individual variability in dispersal distance over consecutive nesting attempts. This variability can be partly accounted for by the annual timing of snowmelt. Despite this environmental constraint, habitat differences at the colony level consistently affected nesting success and settlement patterns. Females nesting in wetlands had higher nesting success than those nesting in mesic tundra. Moreover, geese responded adaptively to spatial heterogeneity by showing fidelity to their nesting habitat, independently of snowmelt pattern. From year to year, geese were more likely to move from mesic to high-quality wetland habitat, regardless of previous nesting success and without cost on their subsequent nesting performance. The unpredictability of snowmelt and the low cost of changing site apparently favour breeding-site dispersal although habitat quality promotes fidelity at the scale of habitat patches.     

Earlier Arctic springs cause phenological mismatch in long-distance migrants

An uneven change in climate across the Northern Hemisphere might severely affect the phenology of migrating animals, and especially long-distance migrating birds relying on local climatic cues to regulate the timing of migration. We examine the forward displacement of spring in both staging areas and breeding grounds of one such population, the East Atlantic light-bellied brent goose Branta bernicla hrota, and evaluate to what extent their migration has made a proportional response. On the breeding grounds in Svalbard the onset of spring advanced 2 weeks during the 24-year period, whereas no significant trend was found in the temperate staging areas. The timing of migration was constant throughout the study period, mirroring the static climatic conditions in the spring staging areas. These findings indicate a global warming-induced phenological mismatch in light-bellied brent geese, as these might arrive on their breeding grounds well beyond optimal breeding conditions. Our data indicated that productivity was negatively influenced by phenological delay and positively influenced by prolonged snow cover. We argue that both these effects might be representative of a negative influence of the growing phenological mismatch, because years with later thaw might partly offset the effects of increasingly earlier Svalbard springs. During the study period reproduction fell below annual mortality, and the population declined in recent years. The wider implications of these findings may extend to many migrating species, and highlight the urgent need to clarify how global change may influence cues and the associated timing of important life history activities.     

Marine copepod diversity patterns and the metabolic theory of ecology

The ongoing climate change has improved our understanding of how climate affects the reproduction of animals. However, the interaction between food availability and climate on breeding has rarely been examined. While it has been shown that breeding of boreal birds of prey is first and foremost determined by prey abundance, little information exists on how climatic conditions influence this relationship. We studied the joint effects of main prey abundance and ambient weather on timing of breeding and reproductive success of two smaller (pygmy owl Glaucidium passerinum and Tengmalm’s owl Aegolius funereus) and two larger (tawny owl Strix aluco and Ural owl Strix uralensis) avian predator species using long-term nation-wide datasets during 1973–2004. We found no temporal trend either in vole abundance or in hatching date and brood size of any studied owl species. In the larger species, increasing late winter or early spring temperature advanced breeding at least as much as did high autumn abundance of prey (voles). Furthermore, increasing snow depth delayed breeding of the largest species (Ural owl), presumably by reducing the availability of voles. Brood size was strongly determined by spring vole abundance in all four owl species. These results show that climate directly affects the breeding performance of vole-eating boreal avian predators much more than previously thought. According to earlier studies, small-sized species should advance their breeding more than larger species in response to increasing temperature. However, we found an opposite pattern, with larger species being more sensitive to temperature. We argue that this pattern is caused by a difference in the breeding tactics of larger mostly capital breeding and smaller mostly income breeding owl species.