The effect of past changes in inter‐annual temperature variability on tree distribution limits

Aim The northern limits of temperate broadleaved species in Fennoscanndia are controlled by their requirements for summer warmth for successful regeneration and growth as well as by the detrimental effects of winter cold on plant tissue. However, occurrences of meteorological conditions with detrimental effects on individual species are rare events rather than a reflection of average conditions. We explore the effect of changes in inter‐annual temperature variability on the abundances of the tree species Tilia cordata, Quercus robur and Ulmus glabra near their distribution limits using a process‐based model of ecosystem dynamics. Location A site in central Sweden and a site in southern Finland were used as examples for the ecotone between boreal and temperate forests in Fennoscandia. The Finnish site was selected because of the availability of varve‐thickness data. Methods The dynamic vegetation model LPJ‐GUESS was run with four scenarios of inter‐annual temperature forcing for the last 10,000 years. In one scenario the variability in the thickness of summer and winter varves from the annually laminated lake in Finland was used as a proxy for past inter‐annual temperature variability. Two scenarios were devised to explore systematically the effect of stepwise changes in the variance and shape parameter of a probability distribution. All variability scenarios were run both with and without the long‐term trend in Holocene temperature change predicted by an atmospheric general circulation model. Results Directional changes in inter‐annual temperature variability have significant effects on simulated tree distribution limits through time. Variations in inter‐annual temperature variability alone are shown to alter vegetation composition by magnitudes similar to the magnitude of changes driven by variation in mean temperatures. Main conclusions The varve data indicate that inter‐annual climate variability has changed in the past. The model results show that past changes in species abundance can be explained by changes in the inter‐annual variability of climate parameters as well as by mean climate. Because inter‐annual climatic variability is predicted to change in the future, this component of climate change should be taken into account both when making projections of future plant distributions and when interpreting vegetation history.     

Climate and the inter‐annual variability of fire in southern Africa: a meta‐analysis using long‐term field data and satellite‐derived burnt area data

Aim This study investigates inter‐annual variability in burnt area in southern Africa and the extent to which climate is responsible for this variation. We compare data from long‐term field sites across the region with remotely sensed burnt area data to test whether it is possible to develop a general model. Location Africa south of the equator. Methods Linear mixed effects models were used to determine the effect of rainfall, seasonality and fire weather in driving variation in fire extent between years, and to test whether the effect of these variables changes across the subcontinent and in areas more and less impacted by human activities. Results A simple model including rainfall and seasonality explained 40% of the variance in burnt area between years across 10 different protected areas on the subcontinent, but this model, when applied regionally, indicated that climate had less impact on year‐to‐year variation in burnt area than would be expected. It was possible to demonstrate that the relative importance of rainfall and seasonality changed as one moved from dry to wetter systems, but most noticeable was the reduction in climatically driven variability of fire outside protected areas. Inter‐annual variability is associated with the occurrence of large fires, and large fires are only found in areas with low human impact. Main conclusions This research gives the first data‐driven analysis of fire–climate interactions in southern Africa. The regional analysis shows that human impact on fire regimes is substantial and acts to limit the effect of climate in driving variation between years. This is in contrast to patterns in protected areas, where variation in accumulated rainfall and the length of the dry season influence the annual area burnt. Global models which assume strong links between fire and climate need to be re‐assessed in systems with high human impact.     

Terrestrial biosphere model performance for inter‐annual variability of land‐atmosphere CO2 exchange

Interannual variability in biosphere‐atmosphere exchange of CO₂ is driven by a diverse range of biotic and abiotic factors. Replicating this variability thus represents the ‘acid test’ for terrestrial biosphere models. Although such models are commonly used to project responses to both normal and anomalous variability in climate, they are rarely tested explicitly against inter‐annual variability in observations. Herein, using standardized data from the North American Carbon Program, we assess the performance of 16 terrestrial biosphere models and 3 remote sensing products against long‐term measurements of biosphere‐atmosphere CO₂ exchange made with eddy‐covariance flux towers at 11 forested sites in North America. Instead of focusing on model‐data agreement we take a systematic, variability‐oriented approach and show that although the models tend to reproduce the mean magnitude of the observed annual flux variability, they fail to reproduce the timing. Large biases in modeled annual means are evident for all models. Observed interannual variability is found to commonly be on the order of magnitude of the mean fluxes. None of the models consistently reproduce observed interannual variability within measurement uncertainty. Underrepresentation of variability in spring phenology, soil thaw and snowpack melting, and difficulties in reproducing the lagged response to extreme climatic events are identified as systematic errors, common to all models included in this study.     

Different inter‐annual responses to availability and form of nitrogen explain species coexistence in an alpine meadow community after release from grazing

Plant species and functional groups in nitrogen (N) limited communities may coexist through strong eco‐physiological niche differentiation, leading to idiosyncratic responses to multiple nutrition and disturbance regimes. Very little is known about how such responses depend on the availability of N in different chemical forms. Here we hypothesize that idiosyncratic year‐to‐year responses of plant functional groups to availability and form of nitrogen explain species coexistence in an alpine meadow community after release from grazing. We conducted a 6 year N addition experiment in an alpine meadow on the Tibetan Plateau released from grazing by livestock. The experimental design featured three N forms (ammonium, nitrate, and ammonium nitrate), crossed with three levels of N supply rates (0.375, 1.500 and 7.500 g N m^?2 yr^?1), with unfertilized treatments without and with light grazing as controls. All treatments showed increasing productivity and decreasing species richness after cessation of grazing and these responses were stronger at higher N rates. Although N forms did not affect aboveground biomas s at community level, different functional groups did show different responses to N chemical form and supply rate and these responses varied from year to year. In support of our hypothesis, these idiosyncratic responses seemed to enable a substantial diversity and biomass of sedges, forbs, and legumes to still coexist with the increasingly productive grasses in the absence of grazing, at least at low and intermediate N availability regimes. This study provides direct field‐based evidence in support of the hypothesis that idiosyncratic and annually varying responses to both N quantity and quality may be a key driver of community structure and species coexistence. This finding has important implications for the diversity and functioning of other ecosystems with spatial and temporal variation in available N quantity and quality as related to changing atmospheric N deposition, land‐use, and climate‐induced soil warming.     

Microbial communities and their responses to simulated global change fluctuate greatly over multiple years

We used microbial lipid analysis to analyze microbial biomass and community structure during 6 years of experimental treatment at the Jasper Ridge Global Change Experiment (JRGCE), a long‐term multi‐factor global change experiment in a California annual grassland. The microbial community fingerprint and specific biomarkers varied substantially from year to year, in both control and experimental treatment plots. Possible drivers of the variability included plant growth, soil moisture, and ambient temperature. Surprisingly, background variation in the microbial community was of a larger magnitude than even very significant treatment effects, and this variation appeared to constrain responses to treatment. Microbial communities were mostly not responsive or not consistently responsive to the experimental treatments. Both arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi biomarker abundance (16 : 1 ω5c) and the fungal to bacterial ratio were lower under nitrogen addition in most years. Bacterial lipid biomarker abundances (15 : 0 iso and 16 : 1 ω7c) were higher under nitrogen addition in 2002, the year of largest microbial biomass, suggesting that bacteria could respond more to nitrogen addition in years of better growth conditions. Nitrogen addition and warming led to an interactive effect on the Gram‐positive bacterial biomarker and the fungal to bacterial ratio. These patterns indicate that in California grassland ecosystems, microbial communities may not respond substantially to future changes in climate and that nitrogen deposition may be a determinant of the soil response to global change. Further, year‐to‐year variation in microbial growth or community composition may be important determinants of ecosystem response to global change.     

Predominant role of water in regulating soil and microbial respiration and their responses to climate change in a semiarid grassland

Climate change can profoundly impact carbon (C) cycling of terrestrial ecosystems. A field experiment was conducted to examine responses of total soil and microbial respiration, and microbial biomass to experimental warming and increased precipitation in a semiarid temperate steppe in northern China since April 2005. We measured soil respiration twice a month over the growing seasons, soil microbial biomass C (MBC) and N (MBN), microbial respiration (MR) once a year in the middle growing season from 2005 to 2007. The results showed that interannual variations in soil respiration, MR, and microbial biomass were positively related to interannual fluctuations in precipitation. Laboratory incubation with a soil moisture gradient revealed a constraint of the temperature responses of MR by low soil moisture contents. Across the 3 years, experimental warming decreased soil moisture, and consequently caused significant reductions in total and microbial respiration, and microbial biomass, suggesting stronger negatively indirect effects through warming‐induced water stress than the positively direct effects of elevated temperature. Increased evapotranspiration under experimental warming could have reduced soil water availability below a stress threshold, thus leading to suppression of plant growth, root and microbial activities. Increased precipitation significantly stimulated total soil and microbial respiration and all other microbial parameters and the positive precipitation effects increased over time. Our results suggest that soil water availability is more important than temperature in regulating soil and microbial respiratory processes, microbial biomass and their responses to climate change in the semiarid temperate steppe. Experimental warming caused greater reductions in soil respiration than in gross ecosystem productivity (GEP). In contrast, increased precipitation stimulated GEP more than soil respiration. Our observations suggest that climate warming may cause net C losses, whereas increased precipitation may lead to net C gains in the semiarid temperate steppe. Our findings highlight that unless there is concurrent increase in precipitation, the temperate steppe in the arid and semiarid regions of northern China may act as a net C source under climate warming.     

Long‐term antagonistic effect of increased precipitation and nitrogen addition on soil respiration in a semiarid steppe

Changes in water and nitrogen (N) availability due to climate change and atmospheric N deposition could have significant effects on soil respiration, a major pathway of carbon (C) loss from terrestrial ecosystems. A manipulative experiment simulating increased precipitation and atmospheric N deposition has been conducted for 9 years (2005–2013) in a semiarid grassland in Mongolian Plateau, China. Increased precipitation and N addition interactively affect soil respiration through the 9 years. The interactions demonstrated that N addition weakened the precipitation‐induced stimulation of soil respiration, whereas increased precipitation exacerbated the negative impacts of N addition. The main effects of increased precipitation and N addition treatment on soil respiration were 15.8% stimulated and 14.2% suppressed, respectively. Moreover, a declining pattern and 2‐year oscillation were observed for soil respiration response to N addition under increased precipitation. The dependence of soil respiration upon gross primary productivity and soil moisture, but not soil temperature, suggests that resources C substrate supply and water availability are more important than temperature in regulating interannual variations of soil C release in semiarid grassland ecosystems. The findings indicate that atmospheric N deposition may have the potential to mitigate soil C loss induced by increased precipitation, and highlight that long‐term and multi‐factor global change studies are critical for predicting the general patterns of terrestrial C cycling in response to global change in the future.     

Climate effects on inter‐annual variation in growth of the freshwater mussel (Anodonta beringiana) in an Alaskan lake

1. Warming trends are evident in many parts of the globe but are especially marked at higher latitudes, with complex effects on the biota that include direct effects on growth potential and indirect effects through food webs. 2. Air temperatures have been increasing over the past 50 years in southwestern Alaska, affecting the growth and population dynamics of many organisms, including a variety of aquatic species such as the freshwater mussel Anodonta beringiana. 3. We collected freshwater mussels from Iliamna Lake, in the Bristol Bay region of Alaska, and measured their shells to examine climatic effects on growth patterns. 4. Linear mixed effects models and ordinary least square linear regressions revealed strong positive correlations between local air temperatures (especially in May, October and the summer months) and inter‐annual variation in mussel growth. Slower mussel growth was also significantly correlated with later date of ice break‐up, which was linked to air temperatures in late spring.     

Different responses of soil respiration and its components to nitrogen addition among biomes: a meta‐analysis

Anthropogenic activities have increased nitrogen (N) deposition by threefold to fivefold over the last century, which may considerably affect soil respiration (Rs). Although numerous individual studies and a few meta‐analyses have been conducted, it remains controversial as to how N addition affects Rs and its components [i.e., autotrophic (Ra) and heterotrophic respiration (Rh)]. To reconcile the difference, we conducted a comprehensive meta‐analysis of 295 published studies to examine the responses of Rs and its components to N addition in terrestrial ecosystems. We also assessed variations in their responses in relation to ecosystem types, environmental conditions, and experimental duration (DUR). Our results show that N addition significantly increased Rs by 2.0% across all biomes but decreased by 1.44% in forests and increased by 7.84% and 12.4% in grasslands and croplands, respectively (P < 0.05). The differences may largely result from diverse responses of Ra to N addition among biomes with more stimulation of Ra in croplands and grasslands compared with no significant change in forests. Rh exhibited a similar negative response to N addition among biomes except that in croplands, tropical and boreal forests. Methods of partitioning Rs did not induce significant differences in the responses of Ra or Rh to N addition, except that Ra from root exclusion and component integration methods exhibited the opposite responses in temperate forests. The response ratios (RR) of Rs to N addition were positively correlated with mean annual temperature (MAT), with being more significant when MAT was less than 15 °C, but negatively with DUR. In addition, the responses of Rs and its components to N addition largely resulted from the changes in root and microbial biomass and soil C content as indicated by correlation analysis. The response patterns of Rs to N addition as revealed in this study can be benchmarks for future modeling and experimental studies.     

Contrasting responses of heterotrophic and autotrophic respiration to experimental warming in a winter annual‐dominated prairie

Understanding how soil respiration (Rs) and its source components respond to climate warming is crucial to improve model prediction of climate‐carbon (C) feedback. We conducted a manipulation experiment by warming and clipping in a prairie dominated by invasive winter annual Bromus japonicas in Southern Great Plains, USA. Infrared radiators were used to simulate climate warming by 3 °C and clipping was used to mimic yearly hay mowing. Heterotrophic respiration (Rh) was measured inside deep collars (70 cm deep) that excluded root growth, while total soil respiration (Rs) was measured inside surface collars (2–3 cm deep). Autotrophic respiration (Ra) was calculated by subtracting Rh from Rs. During 3 years of experiment from January 2010 to December 2012, warming had no significant effect on Rs. The neutral response of Rs to warming was due to compensatory effects of warming on Rh and Ra. Warming significantly (P < 0.05) stimulated Rh but decreased Ra. Clipping only marginally (P < 0.1) increased Ra in 2010 but had no effect on Rh. There were no significant interactive effects of warming and clipping on Rs or its components. Warming stimulated annual Rh by 22.0%, but decreased annual Ra by 29.0% across the 3 years. The decreased Ra was primarily associated with the warming‐induced decline of the winter annual productivity. Across the 3 years, warming increased Rh/Rs by 29.1% but clipping did not affect Rh/Rs. Our study highlights that climate warming may have contrasting effects on Rh and Ra in association with responses of plant productivity to warming.     

Among‐tree variability and feedback effects result in different growth responses to climate change at the upper treeline in the Swiss Alps

Upper treeline ecotones are important life form boundaries and particularly sensitive to a warming climate. Changes in growth conditions at these ecotones have wide‐ranging implications for the provision of ecosystem services in densely populated mountain regions like the European Alps. We quantify climate effects on short‐ and long‐term tree growth responses, focusing on among‐tree variability and potential feedback effects. Although among‐tree variability is thought to be substantial, it has not been considered systematically yet in studies on growth–climate relationships. We compiled tree‐ring data including almost 600 trees of major treeline species (Larix decidua, Picea abies, Pinus cembra, and Pinus mugo) from three climate regions of the Swiss Alps. We further acquired tree size distribution data using unmanned aerial vehicles. To account for among‐tree variability, we employed information‐theoretic model selections based on linear mixed‐effects models (LMMs) with flexible choice of monthly temperature effects on growth. We isolated long‐term trends in ring‐width indices (RWI) in interaction with elevation. The LMMs revealed substantial amounts of previously unquantified among‐tree variability, indicating different strategies of single trees regarding when and to what extent to invest assimilates into growth. Furthermore, the LMMs indicated strongly positive temperature effects on growth during short summer periods across all species, and significant contributions of fall (L. decidua) and current year's spring (L. decidua, P. abies). In the longer term, all species showed consistently positive RWI trends at highest elevations, but different patterns with decreasing elevation. L. decidua exhibited even negative RWI trends compared to the highest treeline sites, whereas P. abies, P. cembra, and P. mugo showed steeper or flatter trends with decreasing elevation. This does not only reflect effects of ameliorated climate conditions on tree growth over time, but also reveals first signs of long‐suspected negative and positive feedback of climate change on stand dynamics at treeline.     

Shifts of growing‐season precipitation peaks decrease soil respiration in a semiarid grassland

Changing precipitation regimes could have profound influences on carbon (C) cycle in the biosphere. However, how soil C release from terrestrial ecosystems responds to changing seasonal distribution of precipitation remains unclear. A field experiment was conducted for 4 years (2013–2016) to examine the effects of altered precipitation distributions in the growing season on soil respiration in a temperate steppe in the Mongolian Plateau. Over the 4 years, both advanced and delayed precipitation peaks suppressed soil respiration, and the reductions mainly occurred in August. The decreased soil respiration could be primarily attributable to water stress and subsequently limited plant growth (community cover and belowground net primary productivity) and soil microbial activities in the middle growing season, suggesting that precipitation amount in the middle growing season is more important than that in the early, late, or whole growing seasons in regulating soil C release in grasslands. The observations of the additive effects of advanced and delayed precipitation peaks indicate semiarid grasslands will release less C through soil respiratory processes under the projected seasonal redistribution of precipitation in the future. Our findings highlight the potential role of intra‐annual redistribution of precipitation in regulating ecosystem C cycling in arid and semiarid regions.     

Phenological responses of Icelandic subarctic grasslands to short‐term and long‐term natural soil warming

The phenology of vegetation, particularly the length of the growing season (LOS; i.e., the period from greenup to senescence), is highly sensitive to climate change, which could imply potent feedbacks to the climate system, for example, by altering the ecosystem carbon (C) balance. In recent decades, the largest extensions of LOS have been reported at high northern latitudes, but further warming‐induced LOS extensions may be constrained by too short photoperiod or unfulfilled chilling requirements. Here, we studied subarctic grasslands, which cover a vast area and contain large C stocks, but for which LOS changes under further warming are highly uncertain. We measured LOS extensions of Icelandic subarctic grasslands along natural geothermal soil warming gradients of different age (short term, where the measurements started after 5 years of warming and long term, i.e., warmed since ≥50 years) using ground‐level measurements of normalized difference vegetation index. We found that LOS linearly extended with on average 2.1 days per °C soil warming up to the highest soil warming levels (ca. +10°C) and that LOS had the potential to extend at least 1 month. This indicates that the warming impact on LOS in these subarctic grasslands will likely not saturate in the near future. A similar response to short‐ and long‐term warming indicated a strong physiological control of the phenological response of the subarctic grasslands to warming and suggested that genetic adaptations and community changes were likely of minor importance. We conclude that the warming‐driven extension of the LOSs of these subarctic grasslands did not saturate up to +10°C warming, and hence that growing seasons of high‐latitude grasslands are likely to continue lengthening with future warming (unless genetic adaptations or species shifts do occur). This persistence of the warming‐induced extension of LOS has important implications for the C‐sink potential of subarctic grasslands under climate change.     

Contrasting mechanisms underlie short‐ and longer‐term soil respiration responses to experimental warming in a dryland ecosystem

Soil carbon losses to the atmosphere through soil respiration are expected to rise with ongoing temperature increases, but available evidence from mesic biomes suggests that such response disappears after a few years of experimental warming. However, there is lack of empirical basis for these temporal dynamics in soil respiration responses, and for the mechanisms underlying them, in drylands, which collectively form the largest biome on Earth and store 32% of the global soil organic carbon pool. We coupled data from a 10 year warming experiment in a biocrust‐dominated dryland ecosystem with laboratory incubations to confront 0–2 years (short‐term hereafter) versus 8–10 years (longer‐term hereafter) soil respiration responses to warming. Our results showed that increased soil respiration rates with short‐term warming observed in areas with high biocrust cover returned to control levels in the longer‐term. Warming‐induced increases in soil temperature were the main drivers of the short‐term soil respiration responses, whereas longer‐term soil respiration responses to warming were primarily driven by thermal acclimation and warming‐induced reductions in biocrust cover. Our results highlight the importance of evaluating short‐ and longer‐term soil respiration responses to warming as a mean to reduce the uncertainty in predicting the soil carbon–climate feedback in drylands.     

Evolvability of between‐year seed dormancy in populations along an aridity gradient

Under global climate change, adaptation to new conditions is crucial for plant species persistence. This requires the ability to evolve in traits that are correlated with changing climatic variables. We studied between‐year seed dormancy, which correlates with environmental variability, and tested for clinal trends in its evolvability along an aridity gradient in Israel. We conducted a germination experiment under five irrigation levels with two dryland winter annuals (Biscutella didyma, Bromus fasciculatus) from four sites along the gradient. Species differed in means and evolvability of dormancy. Biscutella had high dormancy, which significantly increased with aridity but decreased with higher irrigation. In Bromus, dormancy was low, similar among populations, and only marginally affected by irrigation. Evolvability in Biscutella was high and varied among populations, without a clinal trend along the gradient. Conversely, in Bromus, trait evolvability was low and declined with increasing aridity. We argue that changes in evolvability along climatic gradients depend on the relative intensity of stabilizing selection. This may be high in Bromus and not only depends on environmental stress, but also on variability. Our findings point to the importance of measuring evolvability of climate‐related traits across different natural and artificial environments and for many coexisting species. © 2010 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2010, 100 , 924–934.     

Soil animal responses to moisture availability are largely scale,not ecosystem dependent: insight from a cross‐site study

Climate change will result in reduced soil water availability in much of the world either due to changes in precipitation or increased temperature and evapotranspiration. How communities of mites and nematodes may respond to changes in moisture availability is not well known, yet these organisms play important roles in decomposition and nutrient cycling processes. We determined how communities of these organisms respond to changes in moisture availability and whether common patterns occur along fine‐scale gradients of soil moisture within four individual ecosystem types (mesic, xeric and arid grasslands and a polar desert) located in the western United States and Antarctica, as well as across a cross‐ecosystem moisture gradient (CEMG) of all four ecosystems considered together. An elevation transect of three sampling plots was monitored within each ecosystem and soil samples were collected from these plots and from existing experimental precipitation manipulations within each ecosystem once in fall of 2009 and three times each in 2010 and 2011. Mites and nematodes were sorted to trophic groups and analyzed to determine community responses to changes in soil moisture availability. We found that while both mites and nematodes increased with available soil moisture across the CEMG, within individual ecosystems, increases in soil moisture resulted in decreases to nematode communities at all but the arid grassland ecosystem; mites showed no responses at any ecosystem. In addition, we found changes in proportional abundances of mite and nematode trophic groups as soil moisture increased within individual ecosystems, which may result in shifts within soil food webs with important consequences for ecosystem functioning. We suggest that communities of soil animals at local scales may respond predictably to changes in moisture availability regardless of ecosystem type but that additional factors, such as climate variability, vegetation composition, and soil properties may influence this relationship over larger scales.     

Convergent ecosystem responses to 23‐year ambient and manipulated warming link advancing snowmelt and shrub encroachment to transient and long‐term climate–soil carbon feedback

Ecosystem responses to climate change can exert positive or negative feedbacks on climate, mediated in part by slow‐moving factors such as shifts in vegetation community composition. Long‐term experimental manipulations can be used to examine such ecosystem responses, but they also present another opportunity: inferring the extent to which contemporary climate change is responsible for slow changes in ecosystems under ambient conditions. Here, using 23 years of data, we document a shift from nonwoody to woody vegetation and a loss of soil carbon in ambient plots and show that these changes track previously shown similar but faster changes under experimental warming. This allows us to infer that climate change is the cause of the observed shifts in ambient vegetation and soil carbon and that the vegetation responses mediate the observed changes in soil carbon. Our findings demonstrate the realism of an experimental manipulation, allow attribution of a climate cause to observed ambient ecosystem changes, and demonstrate how a combination of long‐term study of ambient and experimental responses to warming can identify mechanistic drivers needed for realistic predictions of the conditions under which ecosystems are likely to become carbon sources or sinks over varying timescales.     

Temporal response of soil organic carbon after grassland‐related land‐use change

The net flux of CO₂ exchanged with the atmosphere following grassland‐related land‐use change (LUC) depends on the subsequent temporal dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC). Yet, the magnitude and timing of these dynamics are still unclear. We compiled a global data set of 836 paired‐sites to quantify temporal SOC changes after grassland‐related LUC. In order to discriminate between SOC losses from the initial ecosystem and gains from the secondary one, the post‐LUC time series of SOC data was combined with satellite‐based net primary production observations as a proxy of carbon input to the soil. Globally, land conversion from either cropland or forest into grassland leads to SOC accumulation; the reverse shows net SOC loss. The SOC response curves vary between different regions. Conversion of cropland to managed grassland results in more SOC accumulation than natural grassland recovery from abandoned cropland. We did not consider the biophysical variables (e.g., climate conditions and soil properties) when fitting the SOC turnover rate into the observation data but analyzed the relationships between the fitted turnover rate and these variables. The SOC turnover rate is significantly correlated with temperature and precipitation (p < 0.05), but not with the clay fraction of soils (p > 0.05). Comparing our results with predictions from bookkeeping models, we found that bookkeeping models overestimate by 56% of the long‐term (100 years horizon) cumulative SOC emissions for grassland‐related LUC types in tropical and temperate regions since 2000. We also tested the spatial representativeness of our data set and calculated SOC response curves using the representative subset of sites in each region. Our study provides new insight into the impact grassland‐related LUC on the global carbon budget and sheds light on the potential of grassland conservation for climate mitigation.