Dynamical behavior for population genetics models of differential and difference equations with nonmonotone fitnesses

This paper studies the dynamical behavior of classical 2-dimensional models of continuously and discretely reproducing diploid populations with two alleles at one locus. The phase variables are allele frequency and population density. The genotype fitnesses are not assumed to be monotonically decreasing functions of density. Hence the mean fitness curve is more complicated than in the monotonic case. If genotype fitnesses are only density dependent, results concerning equilibrium stability are obtained similar to those for the monotonic case, and periodic solutions are precluded in the differential equation model. An example with one-hump genotype fitnesses is presented and analyzed.Research supported by funds provided by the USDA-Forest Service, Southeastern Forest Experiment Station, Pioneering (Population Genetics of Forest Trees) Research Unit, Raleigh, North Carolina     

Convergence to constant equilibrium for a density-dependent selection model with diffusion

We consider the classical single locus two alleles selection model with diffusion where the fitnesses of the genotypes are density dependent. Using a theorem of Peter Brown, we show that in a bounded domain with homogeneous Neumann boundary conditions, the allele frequency and population density converge to a constant equilibrium lying on the zero population mean fitness curve. The results agree with the case without diffusion obtained by Selgrade and Namkoong. Frequency and density dependent selection is also considered.Research partially supported by NSF grant DMS-8601585     

A Monte Carlo simulation model for studying evolution in age-structured populations

This model provides for any number of genotypes defined by age-specific survival and fecundity rates in a population with completely overlapping generations and growing under the control of density-governing functions affecting survival or fecundity. It is tested in situations involving two alleles at one locus. Nonselection populations at Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium obey the ecogenetic law; i.e., each genotype follows Lotka's law regarding rate of increase and stable age distribution as if it were an independent true-breeding population. Populations experiencing age- and density-independent selection approximate this situation, and the changes in gene frequency are predicted by relative fitnesses bases on λ, the finite rate of increase of the genotypes. Polymorphic gene equilibria occurring at steady-state population sizes are determined by fitnesses based on R, the net reproductive rate. In examples involving differences in generation time produced by age-dependent differences in fecundity, the allele associated with longer generation time may be favored or opposed by selection, depending on whether the density-governing factor controlling population size affects survival or fecundity. If such genotypes have similar R's, a genetic equilibrium may be established if the population is governed by a density function acting upon fecundity. Received: August 23, 1999 / Accepted: July 13, 2000     

Density dependent selection 1: A stable feasible equilibrium may not be attainable

The joint evolution of gene frequency p, and population size N is studied. It is shown that when the genotypic fitnesses are logistic functions of the population size, sets of initial states exist which lead to bizarre behavior. Even though equilibria may be locally stable, these sets of initial conditions eventually produce negative fitnesses. Alternative models are discussed as are some general properties of the mean fitness.     

Strong stability and density-dependent evolutionarily stable strategies

Stability conditions for equilibria of the evolution of population strategies in a single species are developed by comparing frequency and density dependent fitnesses of pairs of strategies. Stability of such equilibria is shown for general haploid frequency and density dynamics. It is also shown that this stability is stronger than that of multispecies population dynamical systems. A biological interpretation of the conditions is provided in terms of the fitness of invading subpopulations.     

Dynamical behavior of differential equation models of frequency and density dependent populations

This paper studies the dynamics of a mathematical model of a continuously reproducing diploid population with two alleles at one locus. The dependent variables are allele frequency and population density. If the genotype fitnesses are frequency and density dependent, the stability of equilibria is related to the geometry of the zero allele fitness curves. The asymptotic behavior of solutions where fitness is only density dependent is contrasted to the asymptotic behavior where fitness is frequency and density dependent. A parameterized family of fitness functions giving a Hopf bifurcation and limit cycles is investigated analytically and numerically.     

One selectionist's perspective

Following introductory comments expressing doubts about the validity of genetic load and Haldane's "cost of natural selection," the role of selection (expressed as the average number of adult daughters per female) on gene frequencies in populations has been partitioned into population and time arenas. The population arena (a geometric plane) deals with the fitnesses of different genotypes under the many situations encountered by individual members of the population in a single generation; average fitnesses of carriers of various genotypes are obtained by calculating across these many situations. The population arena includes the point signifying that, on the average, each mother leaves one daughter as her replacement within the population. It is the plane within which evolutionarily significant norms of reaction exist. The time arena is also a (geometric) plane, one that is composed of the edge-on limit (average fitness) of each successive population arena. It does not include the effects of individual situations on relative fitnesses within each population arena; it encompasses only the temporal sequence of average relative fitnesses. Amino acid substitutions in proteins and base-pair substitutions in DNA are events of concern in the time arena; within the population arena, however, gene action (not merely gene structure) is a matter of considerable concern. Thus, the discussions of the 1950s and 1960s regarding genetic variation which were reasonable within the population arena seem less so within the time arena where structural, rather than functional, variation is stressed. The function-structure dichotomy is entangled with the neutralist-selectionist controversy.     

Density-dependent selection migration model with non-monotone fitness functions

This paper studies the classical single locus, diallelic selection model with diffusion for a continuously reproducing population. The phase variables are population density and allele frequency (or allele density). The genotype fitness depend only on population density but include one-hump functions of the density variable. With mild assumptions on genotype fitnesses, we study the geometry of the nullclines and the asymptotic behavior of solutions of the selection model without diffusion. For the diffusion model with zero Neumann boundary conditions, we use this geometric information to show that if the initial data satisfy certain conditions then the corresponding solution to the reaction-diffusion equation converges to the spatially constant stable equilibrium which is closest to the initial data.Research partially supported by NSF grant DMS-8920597Research supported by funds provided by the USDA-Forest Service, Southeastern Forest Experiment Station, Pioneering (Population Genetics of Forest Trees) Research Unit, Raleigh, North Carolina     

Fluctuations in the Size of Isolated Single-Species Populations and Natural Selection

This paper discusses the basic types of dynamical behavior of populations obtained in discrete models, such as monotonous dynamics, stable limited cycles, and chaotic variations. All these modes are shown to have possibly arisen in the evolution of limited populations under the effect of density-independent selection. This effect together with that of density-dependent non-selective factors has been termed F-selection, which is characterized by independence of relative fitnesses from population density, whereas populations may be ecologically limited; in other words, absolute fitnesses prove to be a function of population size. The characteristic of F-selection is to be not sensitive to changes in population size but to lead to fluctuations, that create conditions for achieving density-dependent selection.     

Darwinian selection and “altruism”

Models are proposed for evolution at a single locus affecting altruistic behavior in which genotypic fitnesses are Darwinian and frequency (but not density) dependent. The fitnesses are composed, either in a multiplicative or an additive way, of factors which depend on the receipt and donation of altruistic behavior. The factors are determined from the matrices of conditional probabilities which describe the genotypes of relatives. Since selection occurs, these probabilities are in terms of genotype frequencies. The relationship between the risk to helper and benefit to recipient which allows altruism to evolve is shown to depend on the kinship coefficient between helper and helped, the particular fitness function proposed and the degree of dominance of the altruism. The commonly accepted criteria of W. D. Hamilton [J. Theor. Biol.7 (1964), 1–16, 17–52] apply only in the additive case. A second class of models of social cooperation independent of relationship and its evolutionary dynamics are discussed.     

A method to infer positive selection from marker dynamics in an asexual population

MOTIVATION: The observation of positive selection acting on a mutant indicates that the corresponding mutation has some form of functional relevance. Determining the fitness effects of mutations thus has relevance to many interesting biological questions. One means of identifying beneficial mutations in an asexual population is to observe changes in the frequency of marked subsets of the population. We here describe a method to estimate the establishment times and fitnesses of beneficial mutations from neutral marker frequency data. RESULTS: The method accurately reproduces complex marker frequency trajectories. In simulations for which positive selection is close to 5% per generation, we obtain correlations upwards of 0.91 between correct and inferred haplotype establishment times. Where mutation selection coefficients are exponentially distributed, the inferred distribution of haplotype fitnesses is close to being correct. Applied to data from a bacterial evolution experiment, our method reproduces an observed correlation between evolvability and initial fitness defect.     

Proportions of different habitat types are critical to the fate of a resistance allele

We describe a simple deterministic theoretical framework for analysing the gene frequency evolution of two alternative alleles at a single genetic locus in a habitat comprising two environments in which the genotypes have different relative fitnesses. We illustrate this for adaptation of pest insects, where one allele (resistance to toxins expressed in transgenic crops) is favoured in one environment (transgenic plants) and the other allele (susceptibility to toxins) is favoured in the other environment (‘refuges’ of non-transgenic plants). The evolution of allele frequencies depends on selection pressure because of relative sizes of the environments and relative fitnesses of the genotypes in each environment. We demonstrate that there are critical threshold proportions for habitat division that determine equilibrium allele frequencies. The stability of the system depends on relationships between the relative genotype fitnesses. In some cases, the division of the habitat in exactly the threshold proportions removes selection pressure and maintains polymorphism at all allele frequencies.     

Stochastic selection in large and small populations

We describe two models of stochastic variation in selection intensity. In both models the arithmetic mean fitness of all genotypes is equal; in both models the geometric mean fitness of the heterozygous genotype is greater than that of both homozygous genotypes. In one model the correlation between the fitnesses of the homozygous genotypes is +1; in the other it is −1. We show that the expected time to absorption of an allele in a finite population is significantly retarded for all initial gene frequencies in the former model. The expected time to absorption of an allele in the latter model is retarded only at extreme initial gene frequencies; at intermediate initial gene frequencies the expected time to absorption is accelerated. We conclude that the criterion for polymorphism based on the geometric mean of the heterozygote being greater than that of both homozygotes provides only limited information about the fate of gene frequency.     

Frequency-dependent selection with dominance: a window onto the behavior of the mean fitness

Selection in which fitnesses vary with the changing genetic composition of the population may facilitate the maintenance of genetic diversity in a wide range of organisms. Here, a detailed theoretical investigation is made of a frequency-dependent selection model, in which fitnesses are based on pairwise interactions between the two phenotypes at a diploid, diallelic, autosomal locus with complete dominance. The allele frequency dynamics are fully delimited analytically, along with all possible shapes of the mean fitness function in terms of where it increases or decreases as a function of the current allele frequency in the population. These results in turn allow possibly the first complete characterization of the dynamical behavior by the mean fitness through time under frequency-dependent selection. Here the mean fitness (i) monotonically increases, (ii) monotonically decreases, (iii) initially increases and then decreases, or (iv) initially decreases and then increases as equilibrium is approached. We analytically derive the exact initial and fitness conditions that produce each dynamic and how often each arises. Computer simulations with random initial conditions and fitnesses reveal that the potential decline in mean fitness is not negligible; on average a net decrease occurs 20% of the time and reduces the mean fitness by >17%.     

Selection and mutation at a diallelic X-linked locus

Equilibria and convergence of gene frequencies are studied in the case of a diallelic X-linked locus under the influence of selection and mutation. The model used is that of an infinite diploid population with nonoverlapping discrete generations and random mating. It is proved that if the mutation rates and fitnesses are constant and the mutation rates are less than one-third, then global convergence of gene frequencies to equilibria occurs. The phase portraits of the dynamical system describing the change of allelic frequencies from one generation to the next are determined. Convergence of gene frequencies is monotone from a certain generation on if every other generation is skipped. In the case without mutation, our proof of this monotone convergence simplifies G. Palm's original proof [37].     

Nuclear–mitochondrial epistasis: a gene's eye view of genomic conflict

We use population genetic models to investigate the cooperative and conflicting synergistic fitness effects between genes from the nucleus and the mitochondrion. By varying fitness parameters, we examine the scope for conflict relative to cooperation among genomes and the utility of the “gene's eye view” analytical approach, which is based on the marginal average fitness of specific alleles. Because sexual conflict can maintain polymorphism of mitochondrial haplotypes, we can explore two types of evolutionary conflict (genomic and sexual) with one epistatic model. We find that the nuclear genetic architecture (autosomal, X‐linked, or Z‐linked) and the mating system change the regions of parameter space corresponding to the evolution by sexual and genomic conflict. For all models, regardless of conflict or cooperation, we find that population mean fitness increases monotonically as evolution proceeds. Moreover, we find that the process of gene frequency change with positive, synergistic fitnesses is self‐accelerating, as the success of an allele in one genome or in one sex increases the frequency of the interacting allele upon which its success depends. This results in runaway evolutionary dynamics caused by the positive intergenomic associations generated by selection. An inbreeding mating system tends to further accelerate these runaway dynamics because it maintains favorable host–symbiont or male–female gene combinations. In contrast, where conflict predominates, the success of an allele in one genome or in one sex diminishes the frequency of the corresponding allele in the other, resulting in considerably slower evolutionary dynamics. The rate of change of mean fitness is also much faster with positive, synergistic fitnesses and much slower where conflict is predominant. Consequently, selection rapidly fixes cooperative gene combinations, while leaving behind a slowing evolving residue of conflicting gene combinations at mutation–selection balance. We discuss how an emphasis on marginal fitness averages may obscure the interdependence of allelic fitness across genomes, making the evolutionary trajectories appear independent of one another when they are not.     

The Alternative Fitness Sets Which Preserve Allele Trajectories: A General Treatment

A general solution is presented of the problem of specifying all alternative, generally frequency-dependent, (absolute) fitness sets which give rise to the same allele frequency changes and population dynamics as a given fitness set. The one- and two-locus cases are analyzed in detail and the method is then extended to the n-locus case. It is shown that if biological constraints can be used to specify the mean fitness of the population and the relative fitnesses of the heterozygotes, then the allele frequency trajectories determine a unique fitness set.     

Examples of the effect of genetic variation on competing species

An ordinary differential equation model for two competing populations with genetic variation in one population is presented. The degree of frequency dependence needed to produce various configurations of stable equilibria is discussed. For example, if the fitnesses are frequency independent then there may exist stable polymorphism although the genetically varying population becomes extinct in each fixation plane. Stable polymorphism where the genetically invariant population becomes extinct in each fixation plane requires frequency dependence in the fitness of the genetically invariant population.     

Evolution of dispersal in density regulated populations: A haploid model

The evolution of dispersal is explored in a density-dependent framework. Attention is restricted to haploid populations in which the genotypic fitnesses at a single diallelic locus are decreasing functions of the changing number of individuals in the population. It is shown that migration between two populations in which the genotypic response to density is reversed can maintain both alleles when the intermigration rates are constant or nondecreasing functions of the population densities. There is always a unique symmetric interior equilibrium with equal numbers but opposite gene frequencies in the two populations, provided the system is not degenerate. Numerical examples with exponential and hyperbolic fitnesses suggest that this is the only stable equilibrium state under constant positive migration rates (m) less than . Practically speaking, however, there is only convergence after a reasonable number of generations for relatively small migration rates ( ). A migration-modifying mutant at a second, neutral locus, can successfully enter two populations at a stable migration-selection balance if and only if it reduces the intermigration rates of its carriers at the original equilibrium population size. Moreover, migration modification will always result in a higher equilibrium population size, provided the system approaches another symmetric interior equilibrium. The new equilibrium migration rate will be lower than that at the original equilibrium, even when the modified migration rate is a nondecreasing function of the population sizes. Therefore, as in constant viability models, evolution will lead to reduced dispersal.     

The evolutionary role of the dependence of recombination on environment

Summary The recombination frequency (rf) is known to be dependent not only on genetic background, but on the environment as well. In our numerical experiments we examine the role of the dependence of recombination on environment in the evolution of the genetic system. Variable rf-strategies, ensuring mean fitnesses greater than the optimum constant rf^*-level, exist in both cyclical and stochastic environments. The conclusion that environment dependent recombination is evolutionary advantageous can be shown to be valid when variation in the frequency of recombination modifiers rather than mean fitness (which implies the concept of group selection) is used as a criterion for strategy comparisons. In this case, an evolutionary advantageous type of variable rf-strategies is the one ensuring restricted genetic variability dispersion in an optimal environment and an increase in released variation with the deterioration of environmental conditions. Another important result is that, taking into account the dependence of recombination on environment, it is possible to account for the maintenance of a higher level of population recombination than that predicted by models with the constant rf-level. On the whole, the data obtained indicate that the direct influence of external factors upon the rf-value could have been a significant factor in the evolution of the genetic system.