Trends in tuna carbon isotopes suggest global changes in pelagic phytoplankton communities

Considerable uncertainty remains over how increasing atmospheric CO₂ and anthropogenic climate changes are affecting open‐ocean marine ecosystems from phytoplankton to top predators. Biological time series data are thus urgently needed for the world's oceans. Here, we use the carbon stable isotope composition of tuna to provide a first insight into the existence of global trends in complex ecosystem dynamics and changes in the oceanic carbon cycle. From 2000 to 2015, considerable declines in δ¹³C values of 0.8‰–2.5‰ were observed across three tuna species sampled globally, with more substantial changes in the Pacific Ocean compared to the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. Tuna recorded not only the Suess effect, that is, fossil fuel‐derived and isotopically light carbon being incorporated into marine ecosystems, but also recorded profound changes at the base of marine food webs. We suggest a global shift in phytoplankton community structure, for example, a reduction in ¹³C‐rich phytoplankton such as diatoms, and/or a change in phytoplankton physiology during this period, although this does not rule out other concomitant changes at higher levels in the food webs. Our study establishes tuna δ¹³C values as a candidate essential ocean variable to assess complex ecosystem responses to climate change at regional to global scales and over decadal timescales. Finally, this time series will be invaluable in calibrating and validating global earth system models to project changes in marine biota.     

Synchronous marine pelagic regime shifts in the Northern Hemisphere

Regime shifts are characterized by sudden, substantial and temporally persistent changes in the state of an ecosystem. They involve major biological modifications and often have important implications for exploited living resources. In this study, we examine whether regime shifts observed in 11 marine systems from two oceans and three regional seas in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) are synchronous, applying the same methodology to all. We primarily infer marine pelagic regime shifts from abrupt shifts in zooplankton assemblages, with the exception of the East Pacific where ecosystem changes are inferred from fish. Our analyses provide evidence for quasi-synchronicity of marine pelagic regime shifts both within and between ocean basins, although these shifts lie embedded within considerable regional variability at both year-to-year and lower-frequency time scales. In particular, a regime shift was detected in the late 1980s in many studied marine regions, although the exact year of the observed shift varied somewhat from one basin to another. Another regime shift was also identified in the mid- to late 1970s but concerned less marine regions. We subsequently analyse the main biological signals in relation to changes in NH temperature and pressure anomalies. The results suggest that the main factor synchronizing regime shifts on large scales is NH temperature; however, changes in atmospheric circulation also appear important. We propose that this quasi-synchronous shift could represent the variably lagged biological response in each ecosystem to a large-scale, NH change of the climatic system, involving both an increase in NH temperature and a strongly positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation. Further investigation is needed to determine the relative roles of changes in temperature and atmospheric pressure patterns and their resultant teleconnections in synchronizing regime shifts at large scales.     

Modelling marine community responses to climate‐driven species redistribution to guide monitoring and adaptive ecosystem‐based management

As a consequence of global climate‐driven changes, marine ecosystems are experiencing polewards redistributions of species – or range shifts – across taxa and throughout latitudes worldwide. Research on these range shifts largely focuses on understanding and predicting changes in the distribution of individual species. The ecological effects of marine range shifts on ecosystem structure and functioning, as well as human coastal communities, can be large, yet remain difficult to anticipate and manage. Here, we use qualitative modelling of system feedback to understand the cumulative impacts of multiple species shifts in south‐eastern Australia, a global hotspot for ocean warming. We identify range‐shifting species that can induce trophic cascades and affect ecosystem dynamics and productivity, and evaluate the potential effectiveness of alternative management interventions to mitigate these impacts. Our results suggest that the negative ecological impacts of multiple simultaneous range shifts generally add up. Thus, implementing whole‐of‐ecosystem management strategies and regular monitoring of range‐shifting species of ecological concern are necessary to effectively intervene against undesirable consequences of marine range shifts at the regional scale. Our study illustrates how modelling system feedback with only limited qualitative information about ecosystem structure and range‐shifting species can predict ecological consequences of multiple co‐occurring range shifts, guide ecosystem‐based adaptation to climate change and help prioritise future research and monitoring.     

Abrupt changes in Great Britain vegetation carbon projected under climate change

Past abrupt ‘regime shifts’ have been observed in a range of ecosystems due to various forcing factors. Large‐scale abrupt shifts are projected for some terrestrial ecosystems under climate change, particularly in tropical and high‐latitude regions. However, there is very little high‐resolution modelling of smaller‐scale future projected abrupt shifts in ecosystems, and relatively less focus on the potential for abrupt shifts in temperate terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we show that numerous climate‐driven abrupt shifts in vegetation carbon are projected in a high‐resolution model of Great Britain's land surface driven by two different climate change scenarios. In each scenario, the effects of climate and CO₂ combined are isolated from the effects of climate change alone. We use a new algorithm to detect and classify abrupt shifts in model time series, assessing the sign and strength of the non‐linear responses. The abrupt ecosystem changes projected are non‐linear responses to climate change, not simply driven by abrupt shifts in climate. Depending on the scenario, 374–1,144 grid cells of 1.5 km × 1.5 km each, comprising 0.5%–1.5% of Great Britain's land area show abrupt shifts in vegetation carbon. We find that abrupt ecosystem shifts associated with increases (rather than decreases) in vegetation carbon, show the greatest potential for early warning signals (rising autocorrelation and variance beforehand). In one scenario, 89% of abrupt increases in vegetation carbon show increasing autocorrelation and variance beforehand. Across the scenarios, 81% of abrupt increases in vegetation carbon have increasing autocorrelation and 74% increasing variance beforehand, whereas for decreases in vegetation carbon these figures are 56% and 47% respectively. Our results should not be taken as specific spatial or temporal predictions of abrupt ecosystem change. However, they serve to illustrate that numerous abrupt shifts in temperate terrestrial ecosystems could occur in a changing climate, with some early warning signals detectable beforehand.     

Lifeform indicators reveal large‐scale shifts in plankton across the North‐West European shelf

Increasing direct human pressures on the marine environment, coupled with climate‐driven changes, is a concern to marine ecosystems globally. This requires the development and monitoring of ecosystem indicators for effective management and adaptation planning. Plankton lifeforms (broad functional groups) are sensitive indicators of marine environmental change and can provide a simplified view of plankton biodiversity, building an understanding of change in lower trophic levels. Here, we visualize regional‐scale multi‐decadal trends in six key plankton lifeforms as well as their correlative relationships with sea surface temperature (SST). For the first time, we collate trends across multiple disparate surveys, comparing the spatially and temporally extensive Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey (offshore) with multiple long‐term fixed station‐based time‐series (inshore) from around the UK coastline. These analyses of plankton lifeforms showed profound long‐term changes, which were coherent across large spatial scales. For example, ‘diatom’ and ‘meroplankton’ lifeforms showed strong alignment between surveys and coherent regional‐scale trends, with the 1998–2017 decadal average abundance of meroplankton being 2.3 times that of 1958–1967 for CPR samples in the North Sea. This major, shelf‐wide increase in meroplankton correlated with increasing SSTs, and contrasted with a general decrease in holoplankton (dominated by small copepods), indicating a changing balance of benthic and pelagic fauna. Likewise, inshore‐offshore gradients in dinoflagellate trends, with contemporary increases inshore contrasting with multi‐decadal decreases offshore (approx. 75% lower decadal mean abundance), urgently require the identification of causal mechanisms. Our lifeform approach allows the collation of many different data types and time‐series across the NW European shelf, providing a crucial evidence base for informing ecosystem‐based management, and the development of regional adaptation plans.     

Climate‐mediated changes in marine ecosystem regulation during El Niño

The degree to which ecosystems are regulated through bottom‐up, top‐down, or direct physical processes represents a long‐standing issue in ecology, with important consequences for resource management and conservation. In marine ecosystems, the role of bottom‐up and top‐down forcing has been shown to vary over spatio‐temporal scales, often linked to highly variable and heterogeneously distributed environmental conditions. Ecosystem dynamics in the Northeast Pacific have been suggested to be predominately bottom‐up regulated. However, it remains unknown to what extent top‐down regulation occurs, or whether the relative importance of bottom‐up and top‐down forcing may shift in response to climate change. In this study, we investigate the effects and relative importance of bottom‐up, top‐down, and physical forcing during changing climate conditions on ecosystem regulation in the Southern California Current System (SCCS) using a generalized food web model. This statistical approach is based on nonlinear threshold models and a long‐term data set (~60 years) covering multiple trophic levels from phytoplankton to predatory fish. We found bottom‐up control to be the primary mode of ecosystem regulation. However, our results also demonstrate an alternative mode of regulation represented by interacting bottom‐up and top‐down forcing, analogous to wasp‐waist dynamics, but occurring across multiple trophic levels and only during periods of reduced bottom‐up forcing (i.e., weak upwelling, low nutrient concentrations, and primary production). The shifts in ecosystem regulation are caused by changes in ocean‐atmosphere forcing and triggered by highly variable climate conditions associated with El Niño. Furthermore, we show that biota respond differently to major El Niño events during positive or negative phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), as well as highlight potential concerns for marine and fisheries management by demonstrating increased sensitivity of pelagic fish to exploitation during El Niño.     

Comparative analysis of European wide marine ecosystem shifts: a large-scale approach for developing the basis for ecosystem-based management

Abrupt and rapid ecosystem shifts (where major reorganizations of food-web and community structures occur), commonly termed regime shifts, are changes between contrasting and persisting states of ecosystem structure and function. These shifts have been increasingly reported for exploited marine ecosystems around the world from the North Pacific to the North Atlantic. Understanding the drivers and mechanisms leading to marine ecosystem shifts is crucial in developing adaptive management strategies to achieve sustainable exploitation of marine ecosystems. An international workshop on a comparative approach to analysing these marine ecosystem shifts was held at Hamburg University, Institute for Hydrobiology and Fisheries Science, Germany on 1-3 November 2010. Twenty-seven scientists from 14 countries attended the meeting, representing specialists from seven marine regions, including the Baltic Sea, the North Sea, the Barents Sea, the Black Sea, the Mediterranean Sea, the Bay of Biscay and the Scotian Shelf off the Canadian East coast. The goal of the workshop was to conduct the first large-scale comparison of marine ecosystem regime shifts across multiple regional areas, in order to support the development of ecosystem-based management strategies.     

Modelling climate‐change‐induced nonlinear thresholds in cephalopod population dynamics

A significant global challenge lies in our current inability to anticipate, and therefore prepare for, critical ecological thresholds (i.e. tipping points in ecosystems). This deficit stems largely from an inadequate understanding of the many complex interactions between species and the environment at the ecosystem level, and the paucity of mechanistic models relating environment to population dynamics at the species level. In marine ecosystems, abundant, short‐lived and fast‐growing species such as anchovies or squids, consistently function as ‘keystone’ groups whose population dynamics affect entire ecosystems. Increasing exploitation coupled with climate change impacts has the potential to affect these ecological groups and consequently, the entire marine ecosystem. There are currently very few models that predict the impact of climate change on these keystone groups. Here we use a combination of individual‐based bioenergetics and stage‐structured population models to characterize the fundamental capacity of cephalopods to respond to climate change. We demonstrate the potential for, and mechanisms behind, two unfavourable climate‐change‐induced thresholds in future population dynamics. Although one threshold was the direct consequence of a decrease in incubation time caused by ocean warming, the other threshold was linked to survivorship, implying the possibility of management through a modification of fishing mortality. Additional substantive changes in phenology were also predicted, with a possible loss in population resilience. Our results demonstrate the feasibility of predicting complex nonlinear dynamics with a reasonably simplistic mechanistic model, and highlight the necessity of developing such approaches for other species if attempts to moderate the impact of climate change on natural resources are to be effective.     

Causes and projections of abrupt climate-driven ecosystem shifts in the North Atlantic

Warming of the global climate is now unequivocal and its impact on Earth' functional units has become more apparent. Here, we show that marine ecosystems are not equally sensitive to climate change and reveal a critical thermal boundary where a small increase in temperature triggers abrupt ecosystem shifts seen across multiple trophic levels. This large-scale boundary is located in regions where abrupt ecosystem shifts have been reported in the North Atlantic sector and thereby allows us to link these shifts by a global common phenomenon. We show that these changes alter the biodiversity and carrying capacity of ecosystems and may, combined with fishing, precipitate the reduction of some stocks of Atlantic cod already severely impacted by exploitation. These findings offer a way to anticipate major ecosystem changes and to propose adaptive strategies for marine exploited resources such as cod in order to minimize social and economic consequences.     

Robustness of early warning signals of regime shifts in time-delayed ecological models

Various ecological and other complex dynamical systems may exhibit abrupt regime shifts or critical transitions, wherein they reorganize from one stable state to another over relatively short time scales. Because of potential losses to ecosystem services, forecasting such unexpected shifts would be valuable. Using mathematical models of regime shifts, ecologists have proposed various early warning signals of imminent shifts. However, their generality and applicability to real ecosystems remain unclear because these mathematical models are considered too simplistic. Here, we investigate the robustness of recently proposed early warning signals of regime shifts in two well-studied ecological models, but with the inclusion of time-delayed processes. We find that the average variance may either increase or decrease prior to a regime shift and, thus, may not be a robust leading indicator in time-delayed ecological systems. In contrast, changing average skewness, increasing autocorrelation at short time lags, and reddening power spectra of time series of the ecological state variable all show trends consistent with those of models with no time delays. Our results provide insights into the robustness of early warning signals of regime shifts in a broader class of ecological systems.     

Circumpolar dynamics of a marine top‐predator track ocean warming rates

Global warming is a nonlinear process, and temperature may increase in a stepwise manner. Periods of abrupt warming can trigger persistent changes in the state of ecosystems, also called regime shifts. The responses of organisms to abrupt warming and associated regime shifts can be unlike responses to periods of slow or moderate change. Understanding of nonlinearity in the biological responses to climate warming is needed to assess the consequences of ongoing climate change. Here, we demonstrate that the population dynamics of a long‐lived, wide‐ranging marine predator are associated with changes in the rate of ocean warming. Data from 556 colonies of black‐legged kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla distributed throughout its breeding range revealed that an abrupt warming of sea‐surface temperature in the 1990s coincided with steep kittiwake population decline. Periods of moderate warming in sea temperatures did not seem to affect kittiwake dynamics. The rapid warming observed in the 1990s may have driven large‐scale, circumpolar marine ecosystem shifts that strongly affected kittiwakes through bottom‐up effects. Our study sheds light on the nonlinear response of a circumpolar seabird to large‐scale changes in oceanographic conditions and indicates that marine top predators may be more sensitive to the rate of ocean warming rather than to warming itself.     

Gradual changes in range size accompany long‐term trends in species richness

Species richness has long been used as an indicator of ecosystem functioning and health. Global richness is declining, but it is unclear whether sub‐global trends differ. Regional trends are especially understudied, with most focused on island regions where richness is strongly impacted by novel colonisations. We addressed this knowledge gap by testing for multi‐decade trends in species richness in nine open marine regions around North America (197 region‐years) while accounting for imperfect observations and grounding our findings in species‐level range dynamics. We found positive richness trends in eight of nine regions, four of which were statistically significant. Species' range sizes generally contracted pre‐extinction and expanded post‐colonisation, but the ranges of transient species expanded over the long‐term, slowly increasing their regional retention and driving increasing richness. These results provide more evidence that sub‐global richness trends are stable or increasing, and highlight the utility of range size for understanding richness dynamics.     

Ecosystems off track: rate‐induced critical transitions in ecological models

Theory suggests that gradual environmental change may erode the resilience of ecosystems and increase their susceptibility to critical transitions. This notion has received a lot of attention in ecology in recent decades. An important question receiving far less attention is whether ecosystems can cope with the rapid environmental changes currently imposed. The importance of this question was recently highlighted by model studies showing that elevated rates of change may trigger critical transitions, whereas slow environmental change would not. This paper aims to provide a mechanistic understanding of these rate‐induced critical transitions to facilitate identification of rate sensitive ecosystems. Analysis of rate sensitive ecological models is challenging, but we demonstrate how rate‐induced transitions in an elementary model can still be understood. Our analyses reveal that rate‐induced transitions 1) occur if the rate of environmental change is high compared to the response rate of ecosystems, 2) are driven by rates, rather than magnitudes, of change and 3) occur once a critical rate of change is exceeded. Disentangling rate‐induced transitions from classical transitions in observations would be challenging. However, common features of rate‐sensitive models suggest that ecosystems with coupled fast–slow dynamics, exhibiting repetitive catastrophic shifts or displaying periodic spatial patterns are more likely to be rate sensitive. Our findings are supported by experimental studies showing rate‐dependent outcomes. Rate sensitivity of models suggests that the common definition of ecological resilience is not suitable for a subset of real ecosystems and that formulating limits to magnitudes of change may not always safeguard against ecosystem degradation. Synthesis Understanding and predicting ecosystem response to environmental change is one of the key challenges in ecology. Model studies have suggested that slow, gradual environmental change beyond some critical threshold can trigger so‐called critical transitions and abrupt ecosystem degradation. An important question remains however whether ecosystems can cope with the ongoing rapid anthropogenic environmental changes to which they are currently imposed. In this study we demonstrate that in some ecological models elevated rates of change can trigger critical transitions even if slow environmental change of the same magnitude would not. Such rateinduced critical transitions in models suggest that concepts like resilience and planetary boundaries may not always be sufficient to explain and prevent ecosystem degradation.     

Shifts in the dynamics of productivity signal ecosystem state transitions at the biome‐scale

Understanding ecosystem dynamics and predicting directional changes in ecosystem in response to global changes are ongoing challenges in ecology. Here we present a framework that links productivity dynamics and ecosystem state transitions based on a spatially continuous dataset of aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) from the temperate grassland of China. Across a regional precipitation gradient, we quantified spatial patterns in ANPP dynamics (variability, asymmetry and sensitivity to rainfall) and related these to transitions from desert to semi‐arid to mesic steppe. We show that these three indices of ANPP dynamics displayed distinct spatial patterns, with peaks signalling transitions between grassland types. Thus, monitoring shifts in ANPP dynamics has the potential for predicting ecosystem state transitions in the future. Current ecosystem models fail to capture these dynamics, highlighting the need to incorporate more nuanced ecological controls of productivity in models to forecast future ecosystem shifts.     

Human activities and climate variability drive fast‐paced change across the world's estuarine–coastal ecosystems

Time series of environmental measurements are essential for detecting, measuring and understanding changes in the Earth system and its biological communities. Observational series have accumulated over the past 2–5 decades from measurements across the world's estuaries, bays, lagoons, inland seas and shelf waters influenced by runoff. We synthesize information contained in these time series to develop a global view of changes occurring in marine systems influenced by connectivity to land. Our review is organized around four themes: (i) human activities as drivers of change; (ii) variability of the climate system as a driver of change; (iii) successes, disappointments and challenges of managing change at the sea‐land interface; and (iv) discoveries made from observations over time. Multidecadal time series reveal that many of the world's estuarine–coastal ecosystems are in a continuing state of change, and the pace of change is faster than we could have imagined a decade ago. Some have been transformed into novel ecosystems with habitats, biogeochemistry and biological communities outside the natural range of variability. Change takes many forms including linear and nonlinear trends, abrupt state changes and oscillations. The challenge of managing change is daunting in the coastal zone where diverse human pressures are concentrated and intersect with different responses to climate variability over land and over ocean basins. The pace of change in estuarine–coastal ecosystems will likely accelerate as the human population and economies continue to grow and as global climate change accelerates. Wise stewardship of the resources upon which we depend is critically dependent upon a continuing flow of information from observations to measure, understand and anticipate future changes along the world's coastlines.     

Marine‐terminating glaciers sustain high productivity in Greenland fjords

Accelerated mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet leads to glacier retreat and an increasing input of glacial meltwater to the fjords and coastal waters around Greenland. These high latitude ecosystems are highly productive and sustain important fisheries, yet it remains uncertain how they will respond to future changes in the Arctic cryosphere. Here we show that marine‐terminating glaciers play a crucial role in sustaining high productivity of the fjord ecosystems. Hydrographic and biogeochemical data from two fjord systems adjacent to the Greenland ice sheet, suggest that marine ecosystem productivity is very differently regulated in fjords influenced by either land‐terminating or marine‐terminating glaciers. Rising subsurface meltwater plumes originating from marine‐terminating glaciers entrain large volumes of ambient deep water to the surface. The resulting upwelling of nutrient‐rich deep water sustains a high phytoplankton productivity throughout summer in the fjord with marine‐terminating glaciers. In contrast, the fjord with only land‐terminating glaciers lack this upwelling mechanism, and is characterized by lower productivity. Data on commercial halibut landings support that coastal regions influenced by large marine‐terminating glaciers have substantially higher marine productivity. These results suggest that a switch from marine‐terminating to land‐terminating glaciers can substantially alter the productivity in the coastal zone around Greenland with potentially large ecological and socio‐economic implications.     

Marine and freshwater regime changes impact a community of migratory Pacific salmonids in decline

Marine and freshwater ecosystems are increasingly at risk of large and cascading changes from multiple human activities (termed “regime shifts”), which can impact population productivity, resilience, and ecosystem structure. Pacific salmon exhibit persistent and large fluctuations in their population dynamics driven by combinations of intrinsic (e.g., density dependence) and extrinsic factors (e.g., ecosystem changes, species interactions). In recent years, many Pacific salmon have declined due to regime shifts but clear understanding of the processes driving these changes remains elusive. Here, we unpacked the role of density dependence, ecosystem trends, and stochasticity on productivity regimes for a community of five anadromous Pacific salmonids (Steelhead, Coho Salmon, Pink Salmon, Dolly Varden, and Coastal Cutthroat Trout) across a rich 40-year time-series. We used a Bayesian multivariate state-space model to examine whether productivity shifts had similarly occurred across the community and explored marine or freshwater changes associated with those shifts. Overall, we identified three productivity regimes: an early regime (1976–1990), a compensatory regime (1991–2009), and a declining regime (since 2010) where large declines were observed for Steelhead, Dolly Varden, and Cutthroat Trout, intermediate declines in Coho and no change in Pink Salmon. These regime changes were associated with multiple cumulative effects across the salmon life cycle. For example, increased seal densities and ocean competition were associated with lower adult marine survival in Steelhead. Watershed logging also intensified over the past 40 years and was associated with (all else equal) ≥97% declines in freshwater productivity for Steelhead, Cutthroat, and Coho. For Steelhead, marine and freshwater dynamics played approximately equal roles in explaining trends in total productivity. Collectively, these changing environments limited juvenile production and lowered future adult returns. These results reveal how changes in freshwater and marine environments can jointly shape population dynamics among ecological communities, like Pacific salmon, with cascading consequences to their resilience.     

Latitude and protection affect decadal trends in reef trophic structure over a continental scale

The relative roles of top‐down (consumer‐driven) and bottom‐up (resource‐driven) forcing in exploited marine ecosystems have been much debated. Examples from a variety of marine systems of exploitation‐induced, top‐down trophic forcing have led to a general view that human‐induced predator perturbations can disrupt entire marine food webs, yet other studies that have found no such evidence provide a counterpoint. Though evidence continues to emerge, an unresolved debate exists regarding both the relative roles of top‐down versus bottom‐up forcing and the capacity of human exploitation to instigate top‐down, community‐level effects. Using time‐series data for 104 reef communities spanning tropical to temperate Australia from 1992 to 2013, we aimed to quantify relationships among long‐term trophic group population density trends, latitude, and exploitation status over a continental‐scale biogeographic range. Specifically, we amalgamated two long‐term monitoring databases of marine community dynamics to test for significant positive or negative trends in density of each of three key trophic levels (predators, herbivores, and algae) across the entire time series at each of the 104 locations. We found that trophic control tended toward bottom‐up driven in tropical systems and top‐down driven in temperate systems. Further, alternating long‐term population trends across multiple trophic levels (a method of identifying trophic cascades), presumably due to top‐down trophic forcing, occurred in roughly fifteen percent of locations where the prerequisite significant predator trends occurred. Such alternating trophic trends were significantly more likely to occur at locations with increasing predator densities over time. Within these locations, we found a marked latitudinal gradient in the prevalence of long‐term, alternating trophic group trends, from rare in the tropics (<5% of cases) to relatively common in temperate areas (~45%). Lastly, the strongest trends in predator and algal density occurred in older no‐take marine reserves; however, exploitation status did not affect the likelihood of alternating long‐term trophic group trends occurring. Our data suggest that the type and degree of trophic forcing in this system are likely related to one or more covariates of latitude, and that ecosystem resiliency to top‐down control does not universally vary in this system based on exploitation level.     

Temporal trends and variability in a high-arctic ecosystem in Greenland: multidimensional analyses of limnic and terrestrial ecosystems

The high arctic is undergoing a faster change in climate than most other regions of the planet, with already observed ecological consequences. Combined with the characteristics of high-arctic ecosystems, such as low species redundancy, high seasonality and weather extremes, shifts in individual species performance and phenology may lead to altered interaction dynamics through trophic mismatch and cascades. An ecosystem approach is therefore desirable in the attempt to understand the multidimensional impacts of climate. Here, we present ecosystem-wide trend analyses of a long-term dataset on terrestrial and limnic biota with focus on the distribution of observed trends and associated variation across the ecosystem. We used 114 time series drawn from 11 abiotic variables, 19 terrestrial and 7 limnic biotic species/taxa and compared temporal trends, changes and abrupt shifts in the variation within and across the two biota. A total of 36 % of the time series analysed showed a significant trend during the study period with a higher frequency of trends occurring within performance variables. Overall, the changes tended to be negative, indicating advances in phenology but reduced species performance. General system variance was also higher in the limnic biota than in the terrestrial biota, both exhibiting increasing variance up through the trophic system. Overall, our results suggest that multiple biotic responses to the climatic changes in this high-arctic ecosystem are not synchronised across trophic levels and may differ qualitatively and quantitatively between terrestrial and limnic biota.