Contrasting long‐term records of biomass burning in wet and dry savannas of equatorial East Africa

Rainfall controls fire in tropical savanna ecosystems through impacting both the amount and flammability of plant biomass, and consequently, predicted changes in tropical precipitation over the next century are likely to have contrasting effects on the fire regimes of wet and dry savannas. We reconstructed the long‐term dynamics of biomass burning in equatorial East Africa, using fossil charcoal particles from two well‐dated lake‐sediment records in western Uganda and central Kenya. We compared these high‐resolution (5 years/sample) time series of biomass burning, spanning the last 3800 and 1200 years, with independent data on past hydroclimatic variability and vegetation dynamics. In western Uganda, a rapid (<100 years) and permanent increase in burning occurred around 2170 years ago, when climatic drying replaced semideciduous forest by wooded grassland. At the century time scale, biomass burning was inversely related to moisture balance for much of the next two millennia until ca. 1750 ad , when burning increased strongly despite regional climate becoming wetter. A sustained decrease in burning since the mid20th century reflects the intensified modern‐day landscape conversion into cropland and plantations. In contrast, in semiarid central Kenya, biomass burning peaked at intermediate moisture‐balance levels, whereas it was lower both during the wettest and driest multidecadal periods of the last 1200 years. Here, burning steadily increased since the mid20th century, presumably due to more frequent deliberate ignitions for bush clearing and cattle ranching. Both the observed historical trends and regional contrasts in biomass burning are consistent with spatial variability in fire regimes across the African savanna biome today. They demonstrate the strong dependence of East African fire regimes on both climatic moisture balance and vegetation, and the extent to which this dependence is now being overridden by anthropogenic activity.     

Customary Fire Regimes and Vegetation Structure in Gabon’s Bateke Plateaux

Most fires in Africa are anthropogenic yet remain understudied. Studies typically address managed fire, or the ??fire triad?? of early dry season-late dry season-suppression, and fire regimes which are annual or less, leaving unstudied the anthropogenic fire regimes that occur in the majority of African savannas. I take the case of the Bateke Plateaux area where burning today occurs both annually and semi-annually and measure the impacts of these regimes on savanna structure, measuring stem survival post fire and post fire regeneration of resprouts of the dominant savanna tree. While annual fires are hot and burn completely, semi-annual fires are cooler and patchy, favouring re-sprout survival and an escape route for small stems to mature into trees. This work extends the fire triad model to include an anthropogenic semi-annual regime which favours tree survival. The integration of local fire regimes into future studies will help increase our understanding of climate, vegetation dynamics as well as help orient policy and conservation.     

Variable rainfall has a greater effect than fire on the demography of the dominant tree in a semi‐arid Eucalyptus savanna

Rainfall, fire and competition are emphasized as determinants of the density and basal area of woody vegetation in savanna. The semi‐arid savannas of Australia have substantial multi‐year rainfall deficits and insufficient grass fuel to carry annual fire in contrast to the mesic savannas in more northern regions. This study investigates the influence of rainfall deficit and excess, fire and woody competition on the population dynamics of a dominant tree in a semi‐arid savanna. All individuals of Eucalyptus melanophloia were mapped and monitored in three, 1‐ha plots over an 8.5 year period encompassing wet and dry periods. The plots were unburnt, burnt once and burnt twice. A competition index incorporating the size and distance of neighbours to target individuals was determined. Supplementary studies examined seedling recruitment and the transition of juvenile trees into the sapling layer. Mortality of burnt seedlings was related to lignotuber area but the majority of seedlings are fire resistant within 12 months of germination. Most of the juveniles (≤1 cm dbh) of E. melanophloia either died in the dry period or persisted as juveniles throughout 8.5 years of monitoring. Mortality of juveniles was positively related to woody competition and was higher in the dry period than the wet period. The transition of juveniles to a larger size class occurred at extremely low rates, and a subsidiary study along a clearing boundary suggests release from woody competition allows transition into the sapling layer. From three fires the highest proportion of saplings (1–10 cm dbh) reduced to juveniles was only 5.6% suggesting rates of ‘top‐kill’ of E. melanophloia as a result of fire are relatively low. Girth growth was enhanced in wet years, particularly for larger trees (>10 cm dbh), but all trees regardless of size or woody competition levels are vulnerable to drought‐induced mortality. Overall the results suggest that variations in rainfall, especially drought‐induced mortality, have a much stronger influence on the tree demographics of E. melanophloia in a semi‐arid savanna of north‐eastern Australia than fire.     

Optimal Fire Regimes for Soil Carbon Storage in Tropical Savannas of Northern Australia

Modification of fire regimes in tropical savannas can have significant impacts on the global carbon (C) cycle, and therefore, on the climate system. In Australian tropical savannas, there has been recent, large-scale implementation of fire management that aims to decrease Kyoto-compliant non-CO₂ greenhouse gas emissions by reducing late dry season intense fires through strategic early dry season burning. However, there is no accounting for changes to soil C stocks resulting from changes to savanna fire management, although impacts on these pools may be considerable. We present a hypothesis that soil C storage is greatest under low intensity fires with an intermediate fire return interval. Simulations using the CENTURY Soil Organic Matter Model confirmed this hypothesis with greatest soil C storage under a fire regime of one low intensity fire every 5 years. Key areas of uncertainty for CENTURY model simulations include fine root dynamics, charcoal production and nitrogen (N) cycling, and better understanding of these processes could improve model predictions. Soil C stocks measured in the field after 5 years of annual, 3 year and unburned fire treatments were not significantly different (range 41–58 t ha⁻¹), but further CENTURY modelling suggests that changes in fire management will take up to 100 years to have a detectable impact (+4 t ha⁻¹) on soil C stocks. However, implementation of fire management that reduces fire frequency and intensity within the large area of intact savanna landscapes in northern Australia could result in emissions savings of 0.17 t CO₂-e ha⁻¹ y⁻¹, four times greater than reductions of non-CO₂ emissions.     

When is a ‘forest’ a savanna,and why does it matter?

Savannas are defined based on vegetation structure, the central concept being a discontinuous tree cover in a continuous grass understorey. However, at the high‐rainfall end of the tropical savanna biome, where heavily wooded mesic savannas begin to structurally resemble forests, or where tropical forests are degraded such that they open out to structurally resemble savannas, vegetation structure alone may be inadequate to distinguish mesic savanna from forest. Additional knowledge of the functional differences between these ecosystems which contrast sharply in their evolutionary and ecological history is required. Specifically, we suggest that tropical mesic savannas are predominantly mixed tree–C₄ grass systems defined by fire tolerance and shade intolerance of their species, while forests, from which C₄ grasses are largely absent, have species that are mostly fire intolerant and shade tolerant. Using this framework, we identify a suite of morphological, physiological and life‐history traits that are likely to differ between tropical mesic savanna and forest species. We suggest that these traits can be used to distinguish between these ecosystems and thereby aid their appropriate management and conservation. We also suggest that many areas in South Asia classified as tropical dry forests, but characterized by fire‐resistant tree species in a C₄ grass‐dominated understorey, would be better classified as mesic savannas requiring fire and light to maintain the unique mix of species that characterize them.     

Fire in Australian savannas: from leaf to landscape

Savanna ecosystems comprise 22% of the global terrestrial surface and 25% of Australia (almost 1.9 million km²) and provide significant ecosystem services through carbon and water cycles and the maintenance of biodiversity. The current structure, composition and distribution of Australian savannas have coevolved with fire, yet remain driven by the dynamic constraints of their bioclimatic niche. Fire in Australian savannas influences both the biophysical and biogeochemical processes at multiple scales from leaf to landscape. Here, we present the latest emission estimates from Australian savanna biomass burning and their contribution to global greenhouse gas budgets. We then review our understanding of the impacts of fire on ecosystem function and local surface water and heat balances, which in turn influence regional climate. We show how savanna fires are coupled to the global climate through the carbon cycle and fire regimes. We present new research that climate change is likely to alter the structure and function of savannas through shifts in moisture availability and increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide, in turn altering fire regimes with further feedbacks to climate. We explore opportunities to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions from savanna ecosystems through changes in savanna fire management.     

Stocks and dynamics of carbon in trees across a rainfall gradient in a tropical savanna

In this study, systematic variation in tree morphology across a rainfall gradient in Australia's tropical savanna biome and its implications for carbon stocks and dynamics were quantified. The aim was to support efforts to manage fire regimes to increase vegetative carbon stocks as a greenhouse gas mitigation strategy. The height of trees for a given trunk diameter declines with decreasing rainfall from 2000 to 300 mm and increasing dry season length across the Australian savanna biome. It is likely that increasing dry season length is the main driver of this decline rather declining rainfall per se. By taking account of the response of total basal area to rainfall and soil type, stand structure, and tree height and diameter relationships, the carbon stocks in live trees were estimated to decline from about 34 t ha^?1 in the wetter savannas to 6 t ha^?1 in the drier savannas. These values are broadly consistent with field‐based estimates. Because of the declining ratio of height to trunk diameter, trees of a given diameter in drier regions will be more likely to be killed by fires of a given intensity than trees in wetter regions. Thus single fires of given intensity are likely to have a greater proportionate impact on live tree carbon stock in drier savannas, but a much greater absolute impact in wetter savannas due to the greater total carbon stock. Projected decreases in early wet season rainfall under climate change scenarios, despite projections of little change in total precipitation in northern Australia, may lead to decreased carbon stock in live trees through two mechanisms: a reduction in total basal area and decreases in tree height for given trunk diameters.     

Simulating Regional Vegetation‐climate Dynamics for Middle America: Tropical Versus Temperate Applications

Regional vegetation‐climate modelling studies have typically focused on boreal or temperate ecosystems in North America and Europe, almost completely overlooking tropical ecosystems. We present the first results of simulated regional vegetation‐climate dynamics in Middle America as simulated by the model, LPJ‐GUESS. The Kappa statistic indicated poor agreement, with a Kappa value of 0.301. When we modified the Kappa statistic by aggregating cell sizes and using generalized biomes, the Kappa value increased to 0.543, indicating a fair agreement. Total LAI simulated from LPJ‐GUESS was strongly correlated to remotely sensed LAI values (r = 0.75). Our simulations indicate that fire frequency was overestimated in tropical moist forests and underestimated in savannas. This underestimation of fire resulted in an over‐simulation of dry tropical forest at the expense of savanna. We highlight additional reasons for the initially poor representation of vegetation in Middle America, including factors such as non‐parameterized plant functional types (desert shrub, cacti, and other succulents), rugged topography, and an insufficient representation of soil.     

Pyrodiversity interacts with rainfall to increase bird and mammal richness in African savannas

Fire is a fundamental process in savannas and is widely used for management. Pyrodiversity, variation in local fire characteristics, has been proposed as a driver of biodiversity although empirical evidence is equivocal. Using a new measure of pyrodiversity (Hempson et al.), we undertook the first continent‐wide assessment of how pyrodiversity affects biodiversity in protected areas across African savannas. The influence of pyrodiversity on bird and mammal species richness varied with rainfall: strongest support for a positive effect occurred in wet savannas (> 650 mm/year), where species richness increased by 27% for mammals and 40% for birds in the most pyrodiverse regions. Range‐restricted birds were most increased by pyrodiversity, suggesting the diversity of fire regimes increases the availability of rare niches. Our findings are significant because they explain the conflicting results found in previous studies of savannas. We argue that managing savanna landscapes to increase pyrodiversity is especially important in wet savannas.     

Charcoal‐inferred Holocene fire and vegetation history linked to drought periods in the Democratic Republic of Congo

The impact of Holocene drought events on the presumably stable Central African rainforest remains largely unexplored, in particular the significance of fire. High‐quality sedimentary archives are scarce, and palynological records mostly integrate over large regional scales subject to different fire regimes. Here, we demonstrate a direct temporal link between Holocene droughts, palaeofire and vegetation change within present‐day Central African rainforest, using records of identified charcoal fragments extracted from soil in the southern Mayumbe forest (Democratic Republic of Congo). We find three distinct periods of local palaeofire occurrence: 7.8–6.8 ka BP, 2.3–1.5 ka BP, 0.8 ka BP – present. These periods are linked to well‐known Holocene drought anomalies: the 8.2 ka BP event, the 3rd millennium BP rainforest crisis and the Mediaeval Climate Anomaly. During and after these Holocene droughts, the Central African rainforest landscape was characterized by a fragmented pattern with fire‐prone open patches. Some fires occurred during the drought anomalies although most fires seem to lag behind them, which suggests that the open patches remained fire‐prone after the actual climate anomalies. Charcoal identifications indicate that mature rainforest patches did persist through the Early to Mid‐Holocene climatic transition, the subsequent Holocene thermal optimum and the third millennium BP rainforest crisis, until 0.8 ka BP. However, disturbance and fragmentation were probably more prominent near the boundary of the southern Mayumbe forest. Furthermore, the dominance of pioneer and woodland savanna taxa in younger charcoal assemblages indicates that rainforest regeneration was hampered by increasingly severe drought conditions after 0.8 ka BP. These results support the notion of a dynamic forest ecosystem at multicentury time scales across the Central African rainforest.     

Winners and losers: tropical forest tree seedling survival across a West African forest–savanna transition

Forest encroachment into savanna is occurring at an unprecedented rate across tropical Africa, leading to a loss of valuable savanna habitat. One of the first stages of forest encroachment is the establishment of tree seedlings at the forest–savanna transition. This study examines the demographic bottleneck in the seedlings of five species of tropical forest pioneer trees in a forest–savanna transition zone in West Africa. Five species of tropical pioneer forest tree seedlings were planted in savanna, mixed/transition, and forest vegetation types and grown for 12 months, during which time fire occurred in the area. We examined seedling survival rates, height, and stem diameter before and after fire; and seedling biomass and starch allocation patterns after fire. Seedling survival rates were significantly affected by fire, drought, and vegetation type. Seedlings that preferentially allocated more resources to increasing root and leaf starch (starch storage helps recovery from fire) survived better in savanna environments (frequently burnt), while seedlings that allocated more resources to growth and resource‐capture traits (height, the number of leaves, stem diameter, specific leaf area, specific root length, root‐to‐shoot ratio) survived better in mixed/transition and forest environments. Larger (taller with a greater stem diameter) seedlings survived burning better than smaller seedlings. However, larger seedlings survived better than smaller ones even in the absence of fire. Bombax buonopozense was the forest species that survived best in the savanna environment, likely as a result of increased access to light allowing greater investment in belowground starch storage capacity and therefore a greater ability to cope with fire. Synthesis: Forest pioneer tree species survived best through fire and drought in the savanna compared to the other two vegetation types. This was likely a result of the open‐canopied savanna providing greater access to light, thereby releasing seedlings from light limitation and enabling them to make and store more starch. Fire can be used as a management tool for controlling forest encroachment into savanna as it significantly affects seedling survival. However, if rainfall increases as a result of global change factors, encroachment may be more difficult to control as seedling survival ostensibly increases when the pressure of drought is lifted. We propose B. buonopozense as an indicator species for forest encroachment into savanna in West African forest–savanna transitions.     

Spatial and temporal variability of fires in relation to ecosystems,land tenure and rainfall in savannas of northern South America

Fire is a predominant factor forcing global terrestrial biomass dynamics, with more than 30% of the land surface showing frequent burning, particularly in the tropics, where it mostly affects savannas ecosystems annually. Savannas, which cover approximately 269 million ha in South America, play a major role in the global carbon cycle. They are affected by increasing human pressures and global climate change. Using satellite data, this study quantifies vegetation burning in the Colombian Llanos savannas for the period 2000–2008, and analyzes how fire spatial pattern, frequency and extent vary with ecosystem type, land tenure and rainfall. On average 2.75±0.5 million ha (24±4.2%) of the savannas burn each year. Burned area is highly variable, with 3.4 million ha burned in 2002–2003 and <1.9 million ha in 2005–2006. However, during the 2000–2008 period near of 3.7 million ha (33.5%) of the savannas never burned. Compared with the average 8–10 years of fire return time for the tropics and subtropics, these savannas burn twice as often. In addition, the average burn size figure for tropical and subtropical grassland savannas (with <5% trees) of 7000 ha (median 5000 ha), is about seven times the average burned patch size we found in our study. Fires predominate in the well‐drained high plain savannas, lowest figures occurring along the Andean foothills, in forested areas and in pasture and croplands. Annual proportion burned varies with land tenure, being highest in National Parks. This study is the first complete regional map of fire disturbance in a South American savanna. This detailed regional data provides a unique opportunity for increasing the accuracy of global carbon emission calculations.     

Effect of fire regime on plant abundance in a tropical eucalypt savanna of north‐eastern Australia

Abstract Changes in plant abundance within a eucalypt savanna of north‐eastern Australia were studied using a manipulative fire experiment. Three fire regimes were compared between 1997 and 2001: (i) control, savanna burnt in the mid‐dry season (July) 1997 only; (ii) early burnt, savanna burnt in the mid‐dry season 1997 and early dry season (May) 1999; and (iii) late burnt, savanna burnt in the mid‐dry season 1997 and late dry season (October) 1999. Five annual surveys of permanent plots detected stability in the abundance of most species, irrespective of fire regime. However, a significant increase in the abundance of several subshrubs, ephemeral and twining perennial forbs, and grasses occurred in the first year after fire, particularly after late dry season fires. The abundance of these species declined toward prefire levels in the second year after fire. The dominant grass Heteropogon triticeus significantly declined in abundance with fire intervals of 4 years. The density of trees (>2 m tall) significantly increased in the absence of fire for 4 years, because of the growth of saplings; and the basal area of the dominant tree Corymbia clarksoniana significantly increased over the 5‐year study, irrespective of fire regime. Conservation management of these savannas will need to balance the role of regular fires in maintaining the diversity of herbaceous species with the requirement of fire intervals of at least 4‐years for allowing the growth of saplings >2 m in height. Whereas late dry season fires may cause some tree mortality, the use of occasional late fires may help maintain sustainable populations of many grasses and forbs.     

Effects of fire and drought in a tropical eucalypt savanna colonized by rain forest

Aim This study documents the effects of multiple fires and drought on the woody structure of a north Australian savanna never grazed by domestic stock. Location The study was conducted in a 500 ha pocket of Eucalyptus‐dominated savanna surrounded by a late Quaternary lava flow. The flow is known as the Great Basalt Wall, located c. 50 km northeast of Charters Towers in semi‐arid north‐eastern Australia. This region was exposed to the largest 5‐year rainfall deficit on record between 1992 and 1996. Methods All individual woody plants were tagged within a 1.56 ha plot. Species were segregated into their habitat affinities (rain forest, ecotone, savanna) and regeneration strategy (resprouter, seeder). The survivorship of plants within these categories was analysed in relation to fire intensity from the first fire, and to each of four fires lit between 1996 and 2001. Results Before the first fire, the plot contained thirty‐one tree species including twenty‐one typical of the surrounding dry rain forest. These rain forest species were represented by small individuals and constituted <1% of the total basal area of woody plants. The basal area of savanna trees was 7.5 m² ha^?1 at the commencement of monitoring, although 31% had recently died and others had major crown damage. Further death of the drought debilitated savanna trees was substantial during the first year of monitoring and the basal area of live savanna trees declined to 1.1 m² ha^?1 after 5 years. Most species from both rain forest and savanna were classified as resprouters and are capable of regenerating from underground organs after fire. Species without this ability (rain forest seeders and ecotone seeders) were mostly eliminated after the first two consecutive fires. Among resprouters, survivorship declined as fire intensity increased and this was more pronounced for rain forest than for savanna species. Repeated burning produced a cumulative effect of decreasing survivorship for rain forest resprouters relative to savanna resprouters. Main conclusions The study provides evidence that savanna and rain forest trees differ in fire susceptibility and that recurrent fire can explain the restricted distribution of rain forest in the seasonally arid Australian tropics. The time of death of the savanna trees is consistent with the regional pattern after severe drought, and highlights the importance of medium term climate cycles for the population dynamics of savanna tree species and structure of Australian savannas.     

A continental-scale analysis of tree cover in African savannas

Aim We present a continental‐scale analysis that explores the processes controlling woody community structure in tropical savannas. We analyse how biotic and abiotic factors interact to promote and modify tree cover, examine alternative ecological hypotheses and quantify disturbance effects using satellite estimates of tree cover. Location African savannas. Methods Tree cover is represented as a resource‐driven potential cover related to rainfall and soil characteristics perturbed by natural and human factors such as fire, cattle grazing, human population and cultivation. Within this framework our approach combines semi‐empirical modelling and information theory to identify the best models. Results Woody community structure across African savannas is best represented by a sigmoidal response of tree cover to mean annual precipitation (MAP), with a dependency on soil texture, which is modified by the separate effects of fire, domestic livestock, human population density and cultivation intensity. This model explains c. 66% of the variance in tree cover and appears consistent across the savanna regions of Africa. Main conclusions The analysis provides a new understanding of the importance and interaction of environmental and disturbance factors that create the broad spatial patterns of tree cover observed in African savannas. Woody cover increases with rainfall, but is modified by disturbances. These ‘perturbation’ effects depend on MAP regimes: in arid savannas (MAP < 400 mm) they are generally small (< 1% decrease in cover), while in semi‐arid and mesic savannas (400–1600 mm), perturbations result in an average 2% (400 mm) to 23% (1600 mm) decrease in cover; fire frequency and human population have more influence than cattle, and cultivation appears, on average, to lead to small increases in woody cover. Wet savannas (1600–2200 mm) are controlled by perturbations that inhibit canopy closure and reduce tree cover by, on average, 24–34%. Full understanding of the processes determining savanna structure requires consideration of resource limitation and disturbance dynamics.     

Buffering the savanna: fire regimes and disequilibrium ecology in West Africa

According to contemporary ecological theory, the mechanisms governing tree cover in savannas vary by precipitation level. In tropical areas with mesic rainfall levels, savannas are unstable systems in which disturbances, such as fire, determine the ratio of trees to grasses. Precipitation in these so-called “disturbance-driven savannas” is sufficient to support forest but frequent disturbances prevent transition to a closed canopy state. Building on a savanna buffering model we argue that a consistent fire regime is required to maintain savannas in mesic areas. We hypothesize that the spatiotemporal pattern of fires is highly regular and stable in these areas. Furthermore, because tree growth rates in savannas are a function of precipitation, we hypothesize that savannas with the highest rainfall levels will have the most consistent fire pattern and the most intense fires—thus the strongest buffering mechanisms. We analyzed the spatiotemporal pattern of burning over 11 years for a large subset of the West African savanna using a moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer active fire product to document the fire regime for three savanna belts with different precipitation levels. We used LISA analysis to quantify the spatiotemporal patterns of fires, coefficient of variance to quantify differences in peak fire dates, and center or gravity pathways to characterize the spatiotemporal patterns of the fires for each area. Our analysis confirms that spatiotemporal regularity of the fire regime is greater for mesic areas that for areas where precipitation is lower and that areas with more precipitation have more regular fire regimes.     

Effect of fires on soil nutrient availability in an open savanna in Central Brazil

Fire is common in savannas but its effects on soil are poorly understood. We analyzed long-term effects of fire on surface soil of an open Brazilian savanna (campo sujo) in plots submitted to different fire regimes during 18 years. The five fire regimes were: unburned, quadrennial fires in middle dry season, and biennial fires in early, middle or late dry season. Soil was collected during the wet and the middle dry season of 2008, and analyzed for pH, organic matter, total N, potential acidity, exchangeable cations and available P, S, Mn, Cu, Zn and Fe. We applied multivariate analysis to search for patterns related to fire regimes, and to local climate, fuel, and fire behavior. Spearman test was used to establish correlations between soil variables and the multivariate analysis gradient structure. Seasonal differences were tested using t-test. We found evidence of long-term fire effects: the unburned plot was segregated mainly by lower soil pH; the quadrennial plot was also segregated by lower soil pH and higher amount of exchangeable cations; the time of burning during the dry season in biennial plots did not significantly affect soil availability of nutrients. Differences in elements amounts due to the season of soil sampling (wet or dry) were higher than due to the effect of fires. Higher availability of nutrients in the soil during the wet season was probably related to higher nutrient inputs via rainfall and higher microbial activity.     

Climate regime shift and forest loss amplify fire in Amazonian forests

Frequent Amazonian fires over the last decade have raised the alarm about the fate of the Earth's most biodiverse forest. The increased fire frequency has been attributed to altered hydrological cycles. However, observations over the past few decades have demonstrated hydrological changes that may have opposing impacts on fire, including higher basin‐wide precipitation and increased drought frequency and severity. Here, we use multiple satellite observations and climate reanalysis datasets to demonstrate compelling evidence of increased fire susceptibility in response to climate regime shifts across Amazonia. We show that accumulated forest loss since 2000 warmed and dried the lower atmosphere, which reduced moisture recycling and resulted in increased drought extent and severity, and subsequent fire. Extremely dry and wet events accompanied with hot days have been more frequent in Amazonia due to climate shift and forest loss. Simultaneously, intensified water vapor transport from the tropical Pacific and Atlantic increased high‐altitude atmospheric humidity and heavy rainfall events, but those events did not alleviate severe and long‐lasting droughts. Amazonia fire risk is most significant in the southeastern region where tropical savannas undergo long seasonally dry periods. We also find that fires have been expanding through the wet–dry transition season and northward to savanna–forest transition and tropical seasonal forest regions in response to increased forest loss at the “Arc of Deforestation.” Tropical forests, which have adapted to historically moist conditions, are less resilient and easily tip into an alternative state. Our results imply forest conservation and fire protection options to reduce the stress from positive feedback between forest loss, climate change, and fire.     

Shifts in functional traits elevate risk of fire‐driven tree dieback in tropical savanna and forest biomes

Numerous predictions indicate rising CO₂ will accelerate the expansion of forests into savannas. Although encroaching forests can sequester carbon over the short term, increased fires and drought‐fire interactions could offset carbon gains, which may be amplified by the shift toward forest plant communities more susceptible to fire‐driven dieback. We quantify how bark thickness determines the ability of individual tree species to tolerate fire and subsequently determine the fire sensitivity of ecosystem carbon across 180 plots in savannas and forests throughout the 2.2‐million km² Cerrado region in Brazil. We find that not accounting for variation in bark thickness across tree species underestimated carbon losses in forests by ~50%, totaling 0.22 PgC across the Cerrado region. The lower bark thicknesses of plant species in forests decreased fire tolerance to such an extent that a third of carbon gains during forest encroachment may be at risk of dieback if burned. These results illustrate that consideration of trait‐based differences in fire tolerance is critical for determining the climate‐carbon‐fire feedback in tropical savanna and forest biomes.