Land‐use change to bioenergy: grassland to short rotation coppice willow has an improved carbon balance

The effect of a transition from grassland to second‐generation (2G) bioenergy on soil carbon and greenhouse gas (GHG) balance is uncertain, with limited empirical data on which to validate landscape‐scale models, sustainability criteria and energy policies. Here, we quantified soil carbon, soil GHG emissions and whole ecosystem carbon balance for short rotation coppice (SRC) bioenergy willow and a paired grassland site, both planted at commercial scale. We quantified the carbon balance for a 2‐year period and captured the effects of a commercial harvest in the SRC willow at the end of the first cycle. Soil fluxes of nitrous oxide (N₂O) and methane (CH₄) did not contribute significantly to the GHG balance of these land uses. Soil respiration was lower in SRC willow (912 ± 42 g C m^?2 yr^?1) than in grassland (1522 ± 39 g C m^?2 yr^?1). Net ecosystem exchange (NEE) reflected this with the grassland a net source of carbon with mean NEE of 119 ± 10 g C m^?2 yr^?1 and SRC willow a net sink, ?620 ± 18 g C m^?2 yr^?1. When carbon removed from the ecosystem in harvested products was considered (Net Biome Productivity), SRC willow remained a net sink (221 ± 66 g C m^?2 yr^?1). Despite the SRC willow site being a net sink for carbon, soil carbon stocks (0–30 cm) were higher under the grassland. There was a larger NEE and increase in ecosystem respiration in the SRC willow after harvest; however, the site still remained a carbon sink. Our results indicate that once established, significant carbon savings are likely in SRC willow compared with the minimally managed grassland at this site. Although these observed impacts may be site and management dependent, they provide evidence that land‐use transition to 2G bioenergy has potential to provide a significant improvement on the ecosystem service of climate regulation relative to grassland systems.     

A new seasonal‐deciduous spring phenology submodel in the Community Land Model 4.5: impacts on carbon and water cycling under future climate scenarios

A spring phenology model that combines photoperiod with accumulated heating and chilling to predict spring leaf‐out dates is optimized using PhenoCam observations and coupled into the Community Land Model (CLM) 4.5. In head‐to‐head comparison (using satellite data from 2003 to 2013 for validation) for model grid cells over the Northern Hemisphere deciduous broadleaf forests (5.5 million km²), we found that the revised model substantially outperformed the standard CLM seasonal‐deciduous spring phenology submodel at both coarse (0.9 × 1.25°) and fine (1 km) scales. The revised model also does a better job of representing recent (decadal) phenological trends observed globally by MODIS, as well as long‐term trends (1950–2014) in the PEP725 European phenology dataset. Moreover, forward model runs suggested a stronger advancement (up to 11 days) of spring leaf‐out by the end of the 21st century for the revised model. Trends toward earlier advancement are predicted for deciduous forests across the whole Northern Hemisphere boreal and temperate deciduous forest region for the revised model, whereas the standard model predicts earlier leaf‐out in colder regions, but later leaf‐out in warmer regions, and no trend globally. The earlier spring leaf‐out predicted by the revised model resulted in enhanced gross primary production (up to 0.6 Pg C yr^?1) and evapotranspiration (up to 24 mm yr^?1) when results were integrated across the study region. These results suggest that the standard seasonal‐deciduous submodel in CLM should be reconsidered, otherwise substantial errors in predictions of key land–atmosphere interactions and feedbacks may result.     

Evaluation of terrestrial carbon cycle models for their response to climate variability and to CO2 trends

The purpose of this study was to evaluate 10 process‐based terrestrial biosphere models that were used for the IPCC fifth Assessment Report. The simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) is compared with flux‐tower‐based estimates by Jung et al. [Journal of Geophysical Research 116 (2011) G00J07] (JU11). The net primary productivity (NPP) apparent sensitivity to climate variability and atmospheric CO₂ trends is diagnosed from each model output, using statistical functions. The temperature sensitivity is compared against ecosystem field warming experiments results. The CO₂ sensitivity of NPP is compared to the results from four Free‐Air CO₂ Enrichment (FACE) experiments. The simulated global net biome productivity (NBP) is compared with the residual land sink (RLS) of the global carbon budget from Friedlingstein et al. [Nature Geoscience 3 (2010) 811] (FR10). We found that models produce a higher GPP (133 ± 15 Pg C yr^?1) than JU11 (118 ± 6 Pg C yr^?1). In response to rising atmospheric CO₂ concentration, modeled NPP increases on average by 16% (5–20%) per 100 ppm, a slightly larger apparent sensitivity of NPP to CO₂ than that measured at the FACE experiment locations (13% per 100 ppm). Global NBP differs markedly among individual models, although the mean value of 2.0 ± 0.8 Pg C yr^?1 is remarkably close to the mean value of RLS (2.1 ± 1.2 Pg C yr^?1). The interannual variability in modeled NBP is significantly correlated with that of RLS for the period 1980–2009. Both model‐to‐model and interannual variation in model GPP is larger than that in model NBP due to the strong coupling causing a positive correlation between ecosystem respiration and GPP in the model. The average linear regression slope of global NBP vs. temperature across the 10 models is ?3.0 ± 1.5 Pg C yr^?1 °C^?1, within the uncertainty of what derived from RLS (?3.9 ± 1.1 Pg C yr^?1 °C^?1). However, 9 of 10 models overestimate the regression slope of NBP vs. precipitation, compared with the slope of the observed RLS vs. precipitation. With most models lacking processes that control GPP and NBP in addition to CO₂ and climate, the agreement between modeled and observation‐based GPP and NBP can be fortuitous. Carbon–nitrogen interactions (only separable in one model) significantly influence the simulated response of carbon cycle to temperature and atmospheric CO₂ concentration, suggesting that nutrients limitations should be included in the next generation of terrestrial biosphere models.     

Climate‐sensitive ecosystem carbon dynamics along the soil chronosequence of the Damma glacier forefield,Switzerland

We performed a detailed study on the carbon build‐up over the 140‐year‐long chronosequence of the Damma glacier forefield, Switzerland, to gain insights into the organic carbon dynamics during the initial stage of soil formation and ecosystem development. We determined soil carbon and nitrogen contents and their stable isotopic compositions, as well as molecular‐level composition of the bulk soils, and recalcitrance parameters of carbon in different fractions. The chronosequence was divided into three age groups, separated by small end moraines that resulted from two glacier re‐advances. The net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB) showed an exponential increase over the last decades, with mean annual values that range from 100 g C m^?2 yr^?1 in the youngest part to over 300 g C m^?2 yr^?1 in a 60–80 years old part. However, over the entire 140‐year chronosequence, the NECB is only 20 g C m^?2 yr^?1, similar to results of other glacier forefield studies. The difference between the short‐ and long‐term NECB appears to be caused by reductions in ecosystem carbon (EC) accumulation during periods with a colder climate. We propose that two complementary mechanisms have been responsible: 1) Reductions in net primary productivity down to 50% below the long‐term mean, which we estimated using reconstructed effective temperature sums. 2) Disturbance of sites near the terminus of the re‐advanced glacier front. Stabilization of soil organic matter appeared to play only a minor role in the coarse‐grained forefield. We conclude that the forefield ecosystem, especially primary productivity, reacts rapidly to climate changes. The EC gained at warm periods is easily lost again in a cooling climate. Our conclusions may also be valid for other high mountain ecosystems and possibly arctic ecosystems.     

Terrestrial gross primary production inferred from satellite fluorescence and vegetation models

Determining the spatial and temporal distribution of terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) is a critical step in closing the Earth's carbon budget. Dynamical global vegetation models (DGVMs) provide mechanistic insight into GPP variability but diverge in predicting the response to climate in poorly investigated regions. Recent advances in the remote sensing of solar‐induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) opens up a new possibility to provide direct global observational constraints for GPP. Here, we apply an optimal estimation approach to infer the global distribution of GPP from an ensemble of eight DGVMs constrained by global measurements of SIF from the Greenhouse Gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT). These estimates are compared to flux tower data in N. America, Europe, and tropical S. America, with careful consideration of scale differences between models, GOSAT, and flux towers. Assimilation of GOSAT SIF with DGVMs causes a redistribution of global productivity from northern latitudes to the tropics of 7–8 Pg C yr^?1 from 2010 to 2012, with reduced GPP in northern forests (~3.6 Pg C yr^?1) and enhanced GPP in tropical forests (~3.7 Pg C yr^?1). This leads to improvements in the structure of the seasonal cycle, including earlier dry season GPP loss and enhanced peak‐to‐trough GPP in tropical forests within the Amazon Basin and reduced growing season length in northern croplands and deciduous forests. Uncertainty in predicted GPP (estimated from the spread of DGVMs) is reduced by 40–70% during peak productivity suggesting the assimilation of GOSAT SIF with models is well‐suited for benchmarking. We conclude that satellite fluorescence augurs a new opportunity to quantify the GPP response to climate drivers and the potential to constrain predictions of carbon cycle evolution.     

Change in terrestrial ecosystem water‐use efficiency over the last three decades

Defined as the ratio between gross primary productivity (GPP) and evapotranspiration (ET), ecosystem‐scale water‐use efficiency (EWUE) is an indicator of the adjustment of vegetation photosynthesis to water loss. The processes controlling EWUE are complex and reflect both a slow evolution of plants and plant communities as well as fast adjustments of ecosystem functioning to changes of limiting resources. In this study, we investigated EWUE trends from 1982 to 2008 using data‐driven models derived from satellite observations and process‐oriented carbon cycle models. Our findings suggest positive EWUE trends of 0.0056, 0.0007 and 0.0001 g C m^?2 mm^?1 yr^?1 under the single effect of rising CO₂ (‘CO₂’), climate change (‘CLIM’) and nitrogen deposition (‘NDEP’), respectively. Global patterns of EWUE trends under different scenarios suggest that (i) EWUE‐CO₂ shows global increases, (ii) EWUE‐CLIM increases in mainly high latitudes and decreases at middle and low latitudes, (iii) EWUE‐NDEP displays slight increasing trends except in west Siberia, eastern Europe, parts of North America and central Amazonia. The data‐driven MTE model, however, shows a slight decline of EWUE during the same period (?0.0005 g C m^?2 mm^?1 yr^?1), which differs from process‐model (0.0064 g C m^?2 mm^?1 yr^?1) simulations with all drivers taken into account. We attribute this discrepancy to the fact that the nonmodeled physiological effects of elevated CO₂ reducing stomatal conductance and transpiration (TR) in the MTE model. Partial correlation analysis between EWUE and climate drivers shows similar responses to climatic variables with the data‐driven model and the process‐oriented models across different ecosystems. Change in water‐use efficiency defined from transpiration‐based WUE_t (GPP/TR) and inherent water‐use efficiency (IWUE_t, GPP×VPD/TR) in response to rising CO₂, climate change, and nitrogen deposition are also discussed. Our analyses will facilitate mechanistic understanding of the carbon–water interactions over terrestrial ecosystems under global change.     

Climatic variability,hydrologic anomaly,and methane emission can turn productive freshwater marshes into net carbon sources

Freshwater marshes are well‐known for their ecological functions in carbon sequestration, but complete carbon budgets that include both methane (CH₄) and lateral carbon fluxes for these ecosystems are rarely available. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first full carbon balance for a freshwater marsh where vertical gaseous [carbon dioxide (CO₂) and CH₄] and lateral hydrologic fluxes (dissolved and particulate organic carbon) have been simultaneously measured for multiple years (2011–2013). Carbon accumulation in the sediments suggested that the marsh was a long‐term carbon sink and accumulated ~96.9 ± 10.3 (±95% CI) g C m^?2 yr^?1 during the last ~50 years. However, abnormal climate conditions in the last 3 years turned the marsh to a source of carbon (42.7 ± 23.4 g C m^?2 yr^?1). Gross ecosystem production and ecosystem respiration were the two largest fluxes in the annual carbon budget. Yet, these two fluxes compensated each other to a large extent and led to the marsh being a CO₂ sink in 2011 (?78.8 ± 33.6 g C m^?2 yr^?1), near CO₂‐neutral in 2012 (29.7 ± 37.2 g C m^?2 yr^?1), and a CO₂ source in 2013 (92.9 ± 28.0 g C m^?2 yr^?1). The CH₄ emission was consistently high with a three‐year average of 50.8 ± 1.0 g C m^?2 yr^?1. Considerable hydrologic carbon flowed laterally both into and out of the marsh (108.3 ± 5.4 and 86.2 ± 10.5 g C m^?2 yr^?1, respectively). In total, hydrologic carbon fluxes contributed ~23 ± 13 g C m^?2 yr^?1 to the three‐year carbon budget. Our findings highlight the importance of lateral hydrologic inflows/outflows in wetland carbon budgets, especially in those characterized by a flow‐through hydrologic regime. In addition, different carbon fluxes responded unequally to climate variability/anomalies and, thus, the total carbon budgets may vary drastically among years.     

Autumn warming reduces the CO2 sink of a black spruce forest in interior Alaska based on a nine‐year eddy covariance measurement

Nine years (2003–2011) of carbon dioxide (CO₂) flux were measured at a black spruce forest in interior Alaska using the eddy covariance method. Seasonal and interannual variations in the gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (RE) were associated primarily with air temperature: warmer conditions enhanced GPP and RE. Meanwhile, interannual variation in annual CO₂ balance was controlled predominantly by RE, and not GPP. During these 9 years of measurement, the annual CO₂ balance shifted from a CO₂ sink to a CO₂ source, with a 9‐year average near zero. The increase in autumn RE was associated with autumn warming and was mostly attributed to a shift in the annual CO₂ balance. The increase in autumn air temperature (0.22 °C yr^?1) during the 9 years of study was 15 times greater than the long‐term warming trend between 1905 and 2011 (0.015 °C yr^?1) due to decadal climate oscillation. This result indicates that most of the shifts in observed CO₂ fluxes were associated with decadal climate variability. Because the natural climate varies in a cycle of 10–30 years, a long‐term study covering at least one full cycle of decadal climate oscillation is important to quantify the CO₂ balance and its interaction with the climate.     

Reconstruction and attribution of the carbon sink of European forests between 1950 and 2000

European forests are an important carbon sink; however, the relative contributions to this sink of climate, atmospheric CO₂ concentration ([CO₂]), nitrogen deposition and forest management are under debate. We attributed the European carbon sink in forests using ORCHIDEE‐FM, a process‐based vegetation model that differs from earlier versions of ORCHIDEE by its explicit representation of stand growth and idealized forest management. The model was applied on a grid across Europe to simulate changes in the net ecosystem productivity (NEP) of forests with and without changes in climate, [CO₂] and age structure, the three drivers represented in ORCHIDEE‐FM. The model simulates carbon stocks and volume increment that are comparable – root mean square error of 2 m³ ha^?1 yr^?1 and 1.7 kg C m^?2 respectively – with inventory‐derived estimates at country level for 20 European countries. Our simulations estimate a mean European forest NEP of 175 ± 52 g C m^?2 yr^?1 in the 1990s. The model simulation that is most consistent with inventory records provides an upwards trend of forest NEP of 1 ± 0.5 g C m^?2 yr^?2 between 1950 and 2000 across the EU 25. Furthermore, the method used for reconstructing past age structure was found to dominate its contribution to temporal trends in NEP. The potentially large fertilizing effect of nitrogen deposition cannot be told apart, as the model does not explicitly simulate the nitrogen cycle. Among the three drivers that were considered in this study, the fertilizing effect of increasing [CO₂] explains about 61% of the simulated trend, against 26% to changes in climate and 13% only to changes in forest age structure. The major role of [CO₂] at the continental scale is due to its homogeneous impact on net primary productivity (NPP). At the local scale, however, changes in climate and forest age structure often dominate trends in NEP by affecting NPP and heterotrophic respiration.     

Multiscale modeling of spring phenology across Deciduous Forests in the Eastern United States

Phenological events, such as bud burst, are strongly linked to ecosystem processes in temperate deciduous forests. However, the exact nature and magnitude of how seasonal and interannual variation in air temperatures influence phenology is poorly understood, and model‐based phenology representations fail to capture local‐ to regional‐scale variability arising from differences in species composition. In this paper, we use a combination of surface meteorological data, species composition maps, remote sensing, and ground‐based observations to estimate models that better represent how community‐level species composition affects the phenological response of deciduous broadleaf forests to climate forcing at spatial scales that are typically used in ecosystem models. Using time series of canopy greenness from repeat digital photography, citizen science data from the USA National Phenology Network, and satellite remote sensing‐based observations of phenology, we estimated and tested models that predict the timing of spring leaf emergence across five different deciduous broadleaf forest types in the eastern United States. Specifically, we evaluated two different approaches: (i) using species‐specific models in combination with species composition information to ‘upscale’ model predictions and (ii) using repeat digital photography of forest canopies that observe and integrate the phenological behavior of multiple representative species at each camera site to calibrate a single model for all deciduous broadleaf forests. Our results demonstrate variability in cumulative forcing requirements and photoperiod cues across species and forest types, and show how community composition influences phenological dynamics over large areas. At the same time, the response of different species to spatial and interannual variation in weather is, under the current climate regime, sufficiently similar that the generic deciduous forest model based on repeat digital photography performed comparably to the upscaled species‐specific models. More generally, results from this analysis demonstrate how in situ observation networks and remote sensing data can be used to synergistically calibrate and assess regional parameterizations of phenology in models.     

Chronic water stress reduces tree growth and the carbon sink of deciduous hardwood forests

Predicted decreases in water availability across the temperate forest biome have the potential to offset gains in carbon (C) uptake from phenology trends, rising atmospheric CO₂, and nitrogen deposition. While it is well established that severe droughts reduce the C sink of forests by inducing tree mortality, the impacts of mild but chronic water stress on forest phenology and physiology are largely unknown. We quantified the C consequences of chronic water stress using a 13‐year record of tree growth (n = 200 trees), soil moisture, and ecosystem C balance at the Morgan–Monroe State Forest (MMSF) in Indiana, and a regional 11‐year record of tree growth (n > 300 000 trees) and water availability for the 20 most dominant deciduous broadleaf tree species across the eastern and midwestern USA. We show that despite ~26 more days of C assimilation by trees at the MMSF, increasing water stress decreased the number of days of wood production by ~42 days over the same period, reducing the annual accrual of C in woody biomass by 41%. Across the deciduous forest region, water stress induced similar declines in tree growth, particularly for water‐demanding ‘mesophytic’ tree species. Given the current replacement of water‐stress adapted ‘xerophytic’ tree species by mesophytic tree species, we estimate that chronic water stress has the potential to decrease the C sink of deciduous forests by up to 17% (0.04 Pg C yr^?1) in the coming decades. This reduction in the C sink due to mesophication and chronic water stress is equivalent to an additional 1–3 days of global C emissions from fossil fuel burning each year. Collectively, our results indicate that regional declines in water availability may offset the growth‐enhancing effects of other global changes and reduce the extent to which forests ameliorate climate warming.     

Grassland gross carbon dioxide uptake based on an improved model tree ensemble approach considering human interventions: global estimation and covariation with climate

Grassland ecosystems act as a crucial role in the global carbon cycle and provide vital ecosystem services for many species. However, these low‐productivity and water‐limited ecosystems are sensitive and vulnerable to climate perturbations and human intervention, the latter of which is often not considered due to lack of spatial information regarding the grassland management. Here by the application of a model tree ensemble (MTE‐GRASS) trained on local eddy covariance data and using as predictors gridded climate and management intensity field (grazing and cutting), we first provide an estimate of global grassland gross primary production (GPP). GPP from our study compares well (modeling efficiency NSE = 0.85 spatial; NSE between 0.69 and 0.94 interannual) with that from flux measurement. Global grassland GPP was on average 11 ± 0.31 Pg C yr^?1 and exhibited significantly increasing trend at both annual and seasonal scales, with an annual increase of 0.023 Pg C (0.2%) from 1982 to 2011. Meanwhile, we found that at both annual and seasonal scale, the trend (except for northern summer) and interannual variability of the GPP are primarily driven by arid/semiarid ecosystems, the latter of which is due to the larger variation in precipitation. Grasslands in arid/semiarid regions have a stronger (33 g C m^?2 yr^?1/100 mm) and faster (0‐ to 1‐month time lag) response to precipitation than those in other regions. Although globally spatial gradients (71%) and interannual changes (51%) in GPP were mainly driven by precipitation, where most regions with arid/semiarid climate zone, temperature and radiation together shared half of GPP variability, which is mainly distributed in the high‐latitude or cold regions. Our findings and the results of other studies suggest the overwhelming importance of arid/semiarid regions as a control on grassland ecosystems carbon cycle. Similarly, under the projected future climate change, grassland ecosystems in these regions will be potentially greatly influenced.     

Using CO2 to enhance carbon capture and biomass applications of freshwater macroalgae

A major limiting factor in the development of algae as a feedstock for the bioenergy industry is the consistent production and supply of biomass. This study is the first to access the suitability of the freshwater macroalgal genus Oedogonium to supply biomass for bioenergy applications. Specifically, we quantified the effect of CO₂ supplementation on the rate of biomass production, carbon capture, and feedstock quality of Oedogonium when cultured in large‐scale outdoor tanks. Oedogonium cultures maintained at a pH of 7.5 through the addition of CO₂ resulted in biomass productivities of 8.33 (±0.51) g DW m^?2 day^?1, which was 2.5 times higher than controls which had an average productivity of 3.37 (±0.75) g DW m^?2 day^?1. Under these productivities, Oedogonium had a carbon content of 41–45% and a higher heating value of 18.5 MJ kg^?1, making it an ideal biomass energy feedstock. The rate of carbon fixation was 1380 g C m^?2 yr^?1 and 1073.1 g C m^?2 yr^?1 for cultures maintained at a pH of 7.5 and 8.5, and 481 g C m^?2 yr^?1 for cultures not supplemented with CO₂. This study highlights the potential of integrating the large‐scale culture of freshwater macroalgae with existing carbon waste streams, for example coal‐fired power stations, both as a tool for carbon sequestration and as an enhanced and sustainable source of bioenergy.     

Tidal freshwater forest accretion does not keep pace with sea level rise

Soil properties, accretion, and accumulation were measured in tidal freshwater forests (tidal forests) of the Ogeechee, Altamaha, and Satilla rivers of the South Atlantic (Georgia USA) coast to characterize carbon (C) sequestration and nutrient (nitrogen‐N, phosphorus‐P) accumulation in these understudied, uncommon, and ecologically sensitive wetlands. Carbon sequestration and N and P accumulation also were measured in a tidal forest (South Newport River) that experiences saltwater intrusion to evaluate the effects of sea level rise (SLR) and saltwater intrusion on C, N and P accumulation. Finally, soil accretion and accumulation of tidal forests were compared with tidal fresh, brackish and salt marsh vegetation downstream to gauge how tidal forests may respond to SLR. Soil accretion determined using ¹³⁷C and ²¹⁰Pb averaged 1.3 and 2.2 mm yr^?1, respectively, and was substantially lower than the recent rate of SLR along the Georgia coast (3.0 mm yr^?1). Healthy tidal forest soils sequestered C (49–82 g m^?2 yr^?1), accumulated N (3.2–5.3 g m^?2 yr^?1) and P (0.29–0.56 g m^?2 yr^?1) and trapped mineral sediment (340–650 g m^?2 yr^?1). There was no difference in long‐term accretion, C sequestration, and nutrient accumulation between healthy tidal forests and tidal forests of the South Newport River that experience saltwater intrusion. Accelerated SLR is likely to lead to decline of tidal forests and expansion of oligohaline and brackish marshes where soil accretion exceeds the current rate of SLR. Conversion of tidal forest to marshes will lead to an increase in the delivery of some ecosystem services such as C sequestration and sediment trapping, but at the expense of other services (e.g. denitrification, migratory songbird habitat). As sea level rises in response to global warming, tidal forests and their delivery of ecosystem services face a tenuous future unless they can migrate upriver, and that is unlikely in most areas because of topographic constraints and increasing urbanization of the coastal zone.     

Direct and indirect climate change effects on carbon dioxide fluxes in a thawing boreal forest–wetland landscape

In the sporadic permafrost zone of northwestern Canada, boreal forest carbon dioxide (CO₂) fluxes will be altered directly by climate change through changing meteorological forcing and indirectly through changes in landscape functioning associated with thaw‐induced collapse‐scar bog (‘wetland’) expansion. However, their combined effect on landscape‐scale net ecosystem CO₂ exchange (NEE_LAND), resulting from changing gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER), remains unknown. Here, we quantify indirect land cover change impacts on NEE_LAND and direct climate change impacts on modeled temperature‐ and light‐limited NEE_LAND of a boreal forest–wetland landscape. Using nested eddy covariance flux towers, we find both GPP and ER to be larger at the landscape compared to the wetland level. However, annual NEE_LAND (?20 g C m^?2) and wetland NEE (?24 g C m^?2) were similar, suggesting negligible wetland expansion effects on NEE_LAND. In contrast, we find non‐negligible direct climate change impacts when modeling NEE_LAND using projected air temperature and incoming shortwave radiation. At the end of the 21st century, modeled GPP mainly increases in spring and fall due to reduced temperature limitation, but becomes more frequently light‐limited in fall. In a warmer climate, ER increases year‐round in the absence of moisture stress resulting in net CO₂ uptake increases in the shoulder seasons and decreases during the summer. Annually, landscape net CO₂ uptake is projected to decline by 25 ± 14 g C m^?2 for a moderate and 103 ± 38 g C m^?2 for a high warming scenario, potentially reversing recently observed positive net CO₂ uptake trends across the boreal biome. Thus, even without moisture stress, net CO₂ uptake of boreal forest–wetland landscapes may decline, and ultimately, these landscapes may turn into net CO₂ sources under continued anthropogenic CO₂ emissions. We conclude that NEE_LAND changes are more likely to be driven by direct climate change rather than by indirect land cover change impacts.     

Soil carbon and belowground carbon balance of a short‐rotation coppice: assessments from three different approaches

Uncertainty in soil carbon (C) fluxes across different land‐use transitions is an issue that needs to be addressed for the further deployment of perennial bioenergy crops. A large‐scale short‐rotation coppice (SRC) site with poplar (Populus) and willow (Salix) was established to examine the land‐use transitions of arable and pasture to bioenergy. Soil C pools, output fluxes of soil CO₂, CH₄, dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and volatile organic compounds, as well as input fluxes from litter fall and from roots, were measured over a 4‐year period, along with environmental parameters. Three approaches were used to estimate changes in the soil C. The largest C pool in the soil was the soil organic carbon (SOC) pool and increased after four years of SRC from 10.9 to 13.9 kg C m^?2. The belowground woody biomass (coarse roots) represented the second largest C pool, followed by the fine roots (Fr). The annual leaf fall represented the largest C input to the soil, followed by weeds and Fr. After the first harvest, we observed a very large C input into the soil from high Fr mortality. The weed inputs decreased as trees grew older and bigger. Soil respiration averaged 568.9 g C m^?2 yr^?1. Leaching of DOC increased over the three years from 7.9 to 14.5 g C m^?2. The pool‐based approach indicated an increase of 3360 g C m^?2 in the SOC pool over the 4‐year period, which was high when compared with the ?27 g C m^?2 estimated by the flux‐based approach and the ?956 g C m^?2 of the combined eddy‐covariance + biometric approach. High uncertainties were associated to the pool‐based approach. Our results suggest using the C flux approach for the assessment of the short‐/medium‐term SOC balance at our site, while SOC pool changes can only be used for long‐term C balance assessments.     

Challenging terrestrial biosphere models with data from the long‐term multifactor Prairie Heating and CO2 Enrichment experiment

Multifactor experiments are often advocated as important for advancing terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs), yet to date, such models have only been tested against single‐factor experiments. We applied 10 TBMs to the multifactor Prairie Heating and CO₂ Enrichment (PHACE) experiment in Wyoming, USA. Our goals were to investigate how multifactor experiments can be used to constrain models and to identify a road map for model improvement. We found models performed poorly in ambient conditions; there was a wide spread in simulated above‐ground net primary productivity (range: 31–390 g C m^?2 yr^?1). Comparison with data highlighted model failures particularly with respect to carbon allocation, phenology, and the impact of water stress on phenology. Performance against the observations from single‐factors treatments was also relatively poor. In addition, similar responses were predicted for different reasons across models: there were large differences among models in sensitivity to water stress and, among the N cycle models, N availability during the experiment. Models were also unable to capture observed treatment effects on phenology: they overestimated the effect of warming on leaf onset and did not allow CO₂‐induced water savings to extend the growing season length. Observed interactive (CO₂ × warming) treatment effects were subtle and contingent on water stress, phenology, and species composition. As the models did not correctly represent these processes under ambient and single‐factor conditions, little extra information was gained by comparing model predictions against interactive responses. We outline a series of key areas in which this and future experiments could be used to improve model predictions of grassland responses to global change.     

The greenhouse gas balance of European grasslands

The greenhouse gas (GHG) balance of European grasslands (EU‐28 plus Norway and Switzerland), including CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O, is estimated using the new process‐based biogeochemical model ORCHIDEE‐GM over the period 1961–2010. The model includes the following: (1) a mechanistic representation of the spatial distribution of management practice; (2) management intensity, going from intensively to extensively managed; (3) gridded simulation of the carbon balance at ecosystem and farm scale; and (4) gridded simulation of N₂O and CH₄ emissions by fertilized grassland soils and livestock. The external drivers of the model are changing animal numbers, nitrogen fertilization and deposition, land‐use change, and variable CO₂ and climate. The carbon balance of European grassland (NBP) is estimated to be a net sink of 15 ± 7 g C m^?2 year^?1 during 1961–2010, equivalent to a 50‐year continental cumulative soil carbon sequestration of 1.0 ± 0.4 Pg C. At the farm scale, which includes both ecosystem CO₂ fluxes and CO₂ emissions from the digestion of harvested forage, the net C balance is roughly halved, down to a small sink, or nearly neutral flux of 8 g C m^?2 year^?1. Adding CH₄ and N₂O emissions to net ecosystem exchange to define the ecosystem‐scale GHG balance, we found that grasslands remain a net GHG sink of 19 ± 10 g C‐CO₂ equiv. m^?2 year^?1, because the CO₂ sink offsets N₂O and grazing animal CH₄ emissions. However, when considering the farm scale, the GHG balance (NGB) becomes a net GHG source of ?50 g C‐CO₂ equiv. m^?2 year^?1. ORCHIDEE‐GM simulated an increase in European grassland NBP during the last five decades. This enhanced NBP reflects the combination of a positive trend of net primary production due to CO₂, climate and nitrogen fertilization and the diminishing requirement for grass forage due to the Europe‐wide reduction in livestock numbers.     

Grassland to shrubland state transitions enhance carbon sequestration in the northern Chihuahuan Desert

The replacement of native C₄‐dominated grassland by C₃‐dominated shrubland is considered an ecological state transition where different ecological communities can exist under similar environmental conditions. These state transitions are occurring globally, and may be exacerbated by climate change. One consequence of the global increase in woody vegetation may be enhanced ecosystem carbon sequestration, although the responses of arid and semiarid ecosystems may be highly variable. During a drier than average period from 2007 to 2011 in the northern Chihuahuan Desert, we found established shrubland to sequester 49 g C m^?2 yr^?1 on average, while nearby native C₄ grassland was a net source of 31 g C m^?2 yr^?1 over this same period. Differences in C exchange between these ecosystems were pronounced – grassland had similar productivity compared to shrubland but experienced higher C efflux via ecosystem respiration, while shrubland was a consistent C sink because of a longer growing season and lower ecosystem respiration. At daily timescales, rates of carbon exchange were more sensitive to soil moisture variation in grassland than shrubland, such that grassland had a net uptake of C when wet but lost C when dry. Thus, even under unfavorable, drier than average climate conditions, the state transition from grassland to shrubland resulted in a substantial increase in terrestrial C sequestration. These results illustrate the inherent tradeoffs in quantifying ecosystem services that result from ecological state transitions, such as shrub encroachment. In this case, the deleterious changes to ecosystem services often linked to grassland to shrubland state transitions may at least be partially offset by increased ecosystem carbon sequestration.     

Enhanced root exudation stimulates soil nitrogen transformations in a subalpine coniferous forest under experimental warming

Despite the perceived importance of exudation to forest ecosystem function, few studies have attempted to examine the effects of elevated temperature and nutrition availability on the rates of root exudation and associated microbial processes. In this study, we performed an experiment in which in situ exudates were collected from Picea asperata seedlings that were transplanted in disturbed soils exposed to two levels of temperature (ambient temperature and infrared heater warming) and two nitrogen levels (unfertilized and 25 g N m^?2 a^?1). Here, we show that the trees exposed to an elevated temperature increased their exudation rates I (μg C g^?1 root biomass h^?1), II (μg C cm^?1 root length h^?1) and III (μg C cm^?2 root area h^?1) in the unfertilized plots. The altered morphological and physiological traits of the roots exposed to experimental warming could be responsible for this variation in root exudation. Moreover, these increases in root‐derived C were positively correlated with the microbial release of extracellular enzymes involved in the breakdown of organic N (R² = 0.790; P = 0.038), which was coupled with stimulated microbial activity and accelerated N transformations in the unfertilized soils. In contrast, the trees exposed to both experimental warming and N fertilization did not show increased exudation rates or soil enzyme activity, indicating that the stimulatory effects of experimental warming on root exudation depend on soil fertility. Collectively, our results provide preliminary evidence that an increase in the release of root exudates into the soil may be an important physiological adjustment by which the sustained growth responses of plants to experimental warming may be maintained via enhanced soil microbial activity and soil N transformation. Accordingly, the underlying mechanisms by which plant root‐microbe interactions influence soil organic matter decomposition and N cycling should be incorporated into climate‐carbon cycle models to determine reliable estimates of long‐term C storage in forests.